Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Like I just said, this is a positive assets case. That means that everyone gets paid in full except maybe the bondholders. (Bondholders in Calpine settled for less than face value and I suspect the same deal here.)
Everyone must be paid, so Falcone doesn't get to pick over the assets without everybody agreeing to it. I mean - Everybody!
That pretty much leaves either paying full market price for the inventory properties or else entering into a business partnership with some or all of the Tousa subsidiaries. It is their only choice. Although the market is down they will still pay dearly. That's okay because they fully realize just how valuable this company and the properties they kept are.
The funny thing is that we shareholders are the only ones to really profit from their stepping in. Everyone else will be paid in full anyway. Maybe a little faster with Falcone thowing in some cash, but they will get essentially the same amount in the end.
"Maybe next week when Falcone announces a buyout."
What all would Falcone be buying out?
No way in Hell will shareholders get nothing!
This company has always had a valuation of net assets over liabilities. At one point last fall, they estimated 400 million excess value and later implied, because of the difficulty of valuation, that 100 million excess value was more appropriate.
So Tousa has always had more assets than liabilities. The very lowest point ever reported was the 100 million net asset valuation. That low point of 100 mil is $1.66 per share in case you are wondering.
And that's assuming you give a ZERO value to the business as a going concern. Isn't it silly to say this builder with it's 1 billion plus inventory and 1100 employees and stellar reputation is worth ZERO?
What a laugh!
Shareholders get between 8 and 16 bucks a share IMO. The only question is WHEN? Maybe next year. Maybe next week when Falcone announces a buyout.
Ticker info for Tousa today. On Thursday, home builder Tousa Inc. (TOUS) hopes to win five more months to keep control of its bankruptcy reorganization while it develops a plan to exit Chapter 11. The company will ask the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., to extend the deadline for filing its bankruptcy plan to Oct. 25. An extension would block others from filing rival plans with the court.
The collapse of the housing market forced Tousa, based in Hollywood, Fla., to file for bankruptcy in January. The company says it needs more time to negotiate with creditors. The committee representing unsecured creditors wants to sue Tousa's lenders on behalf of the home builder. The creditors say some of Tousa's subsidiaries were insolvent or became insolvent when the company forced them to guarantee a 2007 refinancing, saddling the units with more than $800 million in debt.
-By David McLaughlin, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-3542
Housing Starts UP!!!
Housing starts posted a surprise gain in April, rising 8.2%
per cnn.com today.
Could it look any better?
I'm still estimating the value of Tousa at $500 million. That's about $8.33 per share.
Daffy Duff
Was that a 2000 share buy that happened on 05/11/2008?
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0810928/0810928080311000000000015.pdf
Revised schedule of assets and liabilities as of January 28th.
(Net Book Value of Assets. It would be prohibitively expensive and unduly burdensome to obtain current market valuations for all of the Debtor’s property interests. Accordingly, unless otherwise indicated, the Schedules reflect net book values as of January 28, 2008.)
(Old information, but it shows assets greater than liabilities).
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0810928/0810928080507000000000001.pdf
EXHIBIT A
Home Sales List for Period Starting April 1, 2008 and Ending April 30, 2008....(roughly 320 plus.)
USAA Extended Market Idx (USMIX)
Mutual Fund Family: USAA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tousa (TOUS) stock transactions for this fund are as follows:
QUANTITY SYMBOL COMPANY NAME DATE
2,000 TOUS Tousa 05/11/2008
2,000 TOUS Tousa 12/20/2007
Awesome day today! I can't wait to see what tomorrow brings. Good volume on an up day is always a good thing. Thanks for all the info you always bring to the board! TOUS could very well be the stock play of the year.
I suspect some insiders have peeked at the preliminary April sales figures and liked what they saw. Those should be out tomorrow or next week. But you are probably right about the shareholders now seeing the possibility of getting some of the new shares. Those that already own some shares will want to own more so that could be the buying you are seeing as the good news leaks out. And that increased interest in increasing their shares will grow with every day that this stays in this reorganization play. Time is on our side.
The more cash that is generated by selling new homes and properties BEFORE the exit plan is presented in late October, the less likely that the secured creditors will take all the shares. I suspect 700 to 900 million available even after current expenses will be in the bank and can pay off the most secured. The rest can be refinanced with ample security in a recovering market.
The Greeks have about 70% of the old shares. They are the management/owners now and will want to maximize the percentage of the new company when it emerges from bankruptcy. And they are the ones that get to come up with the plan first.
I wonder if the company decided that since they are doing better than expected that current common shareholders will get shares of the new stock after they emerge from BK?
0.19 X 0.195
400k volume today. High of .20
Whoopee!
I remember asking that question here or on the yahoo board, the answer I got, was that is some cases the q wasnt added no reason was told. I also notice that I have no received a paper from my broker that says tous is in bankruptcy, I even bought some bonds after the chap 11 filing, and havent receive a paper saying that what i have its extremely risky (they always send me this), I remember when I bought calpine (made a ton of meney there, althoug I sold at 2$; It ran pass 4) I received this paper. Aditionally when you look in the pink sheets website the symbol tous it doesnt said the company its in Bk, In my experience they always warned when a company is in BKcy (quote ahmiq and you can see the warning there), so it makes you think whats going on.
My take, guess speculation is this: Since this was a prepacked chapter 11, and didnt include all of tousa companies (some subsidiarys didnt file for chapter 11)the dont have to put the warning. It realy makes you think. Anyway, I agree with you that time is on our side, the longer it takes the better for us. I think our investment here can go to over a dollar with no sweat. GLTY and keep us informed.
Why doesn't tous.pk have a 'Q' added?
I don't know why there is no 'Q'. But another case filed about the same time, added a 'Q' to the name today, months after filing Chapter 11.
Normally, a 'Q' is added to the symbol of the stock when the company files bankruptcy.
100,000 shares someone bought at .16 late on Friday 5/9/2008.
Wow! Assuming I'm right, which I think I am, someone just parlayed 16 thousand bucks into a minimum of 833,000 bucks.
Now, all they have to do is hold those shares until we exit this thing next year. Patience will be the key. I'm sure there will be lots of tempation to sell between now and then. Many times the pps will drop way below .16 but it will be temporary. Here's why they should not sell. The Tousa properties inventory alone is now valued at 1.1 billion in sworn statements filed in court. That inventory, so valuable before the crisis, will be even more valuable when things start kicking again.
The stated inventory, valued at wholesale or stressed prices is worth at least 2 billion when they are sold as individual lots with $400,000 homes sitting on them. Then you add in the money made building those home, ie, the profit. Then you add in the value of the 'business' we call Tousa which is the best and one of the largest home builder in America. That's at least a billion all by itself. Subtract out the approx 2 billion debt and you have pps in final distribution of well over triple the $8.33 pps where I grossly undervalued everything at $500 million.
Now that I think about it, that 100,000 share buy is going to make that guy a millionaire. I'm sure of it.
Wow.
Debtors filed doc 931 motion asking for 150 day extension to file their plan. If granted that gives over 5 more months to generate revenue of about 90 million a month - by building and selling more properties. So far they have moved 1200 homes. They have 135 million DIP financing that they haven't touched and 650 million potentially.
That would be Oct 25th that they have to come up with a reorganization plan. Or more likely, they just come up with another request for an extension because there will be 'avoidance' trials going on that may get really complicated.
Time is on our side.
Substantially All!
The pink elephant in the room is that shortly before filing ch11, the company promised to transfer 'substantially all' the new common stock to the secured creditors in an arrangement that 'most' of the lenders agreed to.
So how is that looking now? Does it still hold? Bankruptcy is famous for setting aside pre bankruptcy agreements that are preferential. Also DIP financing is famous for making the new lender have super priority over All other lenders. Exit financing is also famous for the same thing. Judges always say that DIP and exit financing lenders can NOT be forced to lend their money, so whatever the DIP or Exit financing lenders wants they get.
Having said that, then what is the status of the prebankruptcy agreement as to 'substantially all'?
Daffy Duff
Big Spender just bought 200 shares for .145
That's 29 bucks not counting commission.
I hates when they do that.... Sure messes up my portfolio.<g>
What is the motive? Are there shorts that have an interest in keeping this down? I'm clueless.
Yep. tous.pk jump may happen really really fast. And then it may creep up, giving everyone time to buy in on the way to a dollar. I suspect another builder will eventually see value in the inventory and make an offer to the GREEKS to take it out of bankruptcy by refinancing all the debt. That would be after we continue building cash to over 700 million - probably in about 6 months. When that offer comes, if it does, then that will be super fast, like 10 seconds and noone will be able to buy a single share at less than about 8.33.
Meanwhile it is tempting to take the money out of tous.pk and buy some movers. I like sncr today since unlocked iPhones have driven the price down way too far IMO. And I'm a big sucker for tma and crox, which are easy 10 baggers within 2 years.
tous.pk is due to slide back down to .13 or lower today. It always happens after a good day....
tell me about it ive been waiting to get into yahoo, tous has been lallygagging lately, makes me think that when something happens it will be fast.
Last: 100,000 shares at 0.16
And it was a buy and not a sell. YIPEE!
It is nice to finally see someone buy this besides me. Wonder which stock the seller will buy now with that 16k proceeds? I think yahoo might be good.
My apologies. My rant was directed at the yahoo board comments from others, not at you. I take your postings seriously but never personally. In fact, I appreciate the negative postings here and on yahoo. Don't really understand the purpose of some of the more outrageous, but such posting always make me think and I like to think before taking a position.
And I just may take your advice and sell some or all at .98 <g>
i dint say you were wrong...
Volume is up a little today. Over 200k by closing I think. But all the larger transactions have been sells. That's not good, but someone's patience has run out. I understand the feeling, but I don't expect the buying to heat up for several months. So it will probably be awhile before I get my 10 bagger.
Falcone's interest in the assets is interesting, but I don't see that ever coming to anything. They screwed Tousa once and I don't think the management is going to let it happen again. Others will come in and make a better offer than Falcone will ever make. When they do, I expect the Greeks to see they pay a fair price.
Time is on our side and the dispute over the transeastern deal is going to be looked at. Not management necessarily, but the official committee of unsecured creditors is going to argue fraudulent conveyance and maximize their interests and in so doing will maximize ours. If they find a fraudulent conveyance, then I'm pretty sure the perpetrator will find it hard to recover anything at all for the fraud amount. If not, then the delay gives us time for the real estate market to recover. I consider that a win/win situation.
But where is the minority shareholders committee? It is conspicuously absent and now is the time there needs to be one to ask that any recovery for fraudulent dealing by management and secured creditors benefit the minority as well as the unsecured creditors.
Current Shareholders Get Nothing?
So who are these current shareholders who get nothing? Who get the shaft while others get the mine? Who get none of the shares of the new company when it emerges from bankruptcy? Who bend over and let the lienholders have everything?
The Greeks, that's who. Under the banner of Technical Olympic SA.
Here is the the home page of the shareholders who get nothing:
http://www.techol.gr/default.asp?pid=100&la=2
Check them out and see if you take them for fools.
They own 66.9% of the company. That's a huge amount of ownership for a public company. And they are a huge company with plenty of savvy. It is highly unlikely that they tell the lenders to take the 2.2 billion of assets and we will go away quietly. Of course I am not ignoring that the property is heavily encumbered. I can't even estimate the total debt from the filings so far, but the last audited statement that they filed with the Petition shows 506 million net value. That's 2.2 billion in assets and 1.7 billion in liabilities.
Hopefully, the auditors will finally come out with an audited balance sheet showing the best estimate at the current net value of the company. If they say 300 million net for this 2.2 billion total asset company then so be it. If they say 600 million then so be it. Either way, that doesn't compute in the value of Tousa, inc., which greatly adds value because it is an on going concern which is known to be among the very best home builders in this country.
But nevermind what the net value is today. I say, let's wait a few months and value it again. It should grow in value very very fast or didn't you hear what the talking heads were saying about the economy on Friday after the Dow reached the highest level in months?
Anyone who thinks the Greeks will walk away with nothing and that the common shareholder get nothing is just absolutely mad.
The Perfect Storm.
It is so rare that one finds what you see happening here. It happens but not very often. This combination of factors has created a wonderful chance for someone to participate in this perfect storm. I absolutely love it. Pinch me to see if it is really real.....
seems better than most think, but will they really issue no new shares? Or will they likely not give current shareholders much? 8 seems outrageous, dont you think? I mean they are in BK. I am not saying that you are wrong. I hope you are right, for current shareholders sake. But thanks much for keeping us updated. Maybee you live near TOUS in FL? Well, it doesnt matter where you got your info, as long as you dont mind sharing it :)
So, if you hold your shares to 8??? that would be a 58 bagger?! Even if it goes over $1, you should consider selling half of your shares at .98. Just an opinion.
That is remarkable jaw dropping news. Very undervalued stock imho.
Nice! I see that as really good news. This could be one of the best plays for 2008 IMO. Thanks for the info!
There were two similar stories on Tousa today.
http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2008/05/05/story6.html
=====
Friday, May 2, 2008
Home sales and $207M tax refund help in-bankruptcy builder TOUSASouth Florida Business Journal - by Paul Brinkmann
The company is requesting court permission to use cash collateral for ongoing operations and has delayed a further request of debtor-in-possession financing from Citigroup.
"The communications package and the first-day orders of [the bankruptcy] court contributed substantially to achieving a 'soft landing' into Chapter 11," TOUSA attorneys stated in an April 28 filing.
The home builder said it has continued to sell and deliver homes, despite nationwide challenges in the real estate market - signing 356 new net sales contracts in February and 448 in March, and closing on 340 homes in February and 512 homes in March.
=====================
The second was a ameritrade ticker news item:
BANKRUPTCY WEEK AHEAD:Tousa Seeks To Finance Own RestructuringLast update: 5/2/2008 3:37:47 PM
By David McLaughlin
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Homebuilder Tousa Inc. (TOUS), sitting on more than $300 million in cash, is ready to start spending that money to finance its bankruptcy restructuring instead of tapping a $135 million bankruptcy loan from Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Tousa is set to ask the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., on Wednesday to sign off on its plan. The company has $316 million in total cash, including about $207 million from a recent federal tax refund. The money should be enough to cover its financing needs during the restructuring, it said, allowing it to walk away from the bankruptcy loan. Tousa, based in Hollywood, Fla., was still negotiating with its pre-bankruptcy lenders about using the cash, which is pledged as collateral. The homebuilder owes the lenders $316.4 million on a first-lien revolving loan, $199 million on a first-lien term loan and $317 million on a second-lien term loan. That total could be reduced if Tousa's unsecured creditors win court permission to pursue claims against the lenders. The committee representing unsecured creditors says Tousa subsidiaries were either already insolvent or became insolvent when the company forced them to become co-borrowers in a July refinancing of its debt. Tousa, which operates in Florida, the mid-Atlantic, Texas and the West, filed for Chapter 11 in January, one of a numbers of homebuilders that have crashed into bankruptcy in the wake of the housing market's collapse. On Tuesday, former top executives of failed money manager Sentinel Management Group Inc. will ask for another extension to respond to a lawsuit accusing them of fraud, saying they are close to reaching a settlement in the case. Former Sentinel chairman Philip Bloom and his son, Eric, Sentinel's former chief executive, will ask the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Chicago for an extension to respond to the lawsuit filed against them by the court-appointed trustee overseeing Sentinel. The Blooms say they are close to completing a settlement with the trustee, Frederick Grede, and have asked the court to push back the date for responding to the lawsuit to May 15 while they hammer out the final details. Grede sued the Blooms and Sentinel's former head trader, Charles Mosley, accusing them of a "massive fraud" against Sentinel and its customers, which included hedge funds, commodities brokers and pension funds. The lawsuit is seeking $350 million in damages. A settlement, however, wouldn't spell the end of the Blooms' legal problems. The father and son are also battling lawsuits from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as well as former clients. Also on Tuesday, a subcommittee of the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing into alleged abuses by mortgage companies against homeowners in bankruptcy. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., has scheduled the hearing to investigate practices by lenders, which have come under scrutiny as more homeowners struggle to keep up with their mortgage payments and are filing for bankruptcy. The hearing will feature testimony from a Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC) executive, a Countrywide borrower, and the U.S. Trustee's office, the arm of the Justice Department that monitors bankruptcy proceedings. (This item appears in Dow Jones' Daily Bankruptcy Review newsletter.) -By David McLaughlin, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-3542 (END) Dow Jones NewswiresMay 02, 2008 15:37 ET (19:37 GMT)Copyright © 2008 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved. Please see our Terms of Use.
MarketWatch, the MarketWatch logo, and BigCharts are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, Inc.
News provided by Dow Jones NewswiresSM, PR News Wire™ and ...
==================
I read those and I see 8.33 minimum per share. Others may see more or less, but that's my true belief of a tous.pk pps within a year and I'm sticking to it.
Duff
Where do you see this at? I went to tousadocket.com and couldn't find anything from today that shows good news.
Check the latest update today 5/2/2008. Noting but good news, indicating that the .14 shares are likely worth about 8.33 each in a few months. Maybe a whole lot more.
Assets: 2.3 Billion
Debt: Almost as much
"The bankruptcy case promises to be one of the most complex ever seen in South Florida, involving $2.3 billion of assets and almost as much in liabilities."
Will the creditors get all the stock or will the Greeks that own this company ask for something too? Usually, the equity owners get nothing. So how is this different?
The 200 million refund in taxes has been received and allocated to pay state sales taxes. So it was incorporated into the balance sheet and the sales tax debt reduction is one of the reasons that total assets was listed at over 2 billion.
How much will the Greeks want to walk away?
I see the market cap is about 10 million.
I see the private property listed as of march 08 is 2.2 billion.
I don't know how much debt is outstanding, but I assume it is close to the assets.
They are still sitting on prime real estate that they paid too much for. They dropped a lot of options and paid a lot of penalties, but kept what they thought was best.
If the market has bottomed or bottoms soon, the real estate could really ballon in value.
So how much to walk away or be bought out by another deep pockets?
This could be one of the best plays for 2008! I still can't believe that they are selling so many houses in a down market! The company is doing better and has more money than it did prior to filing BK.
happy birthday man!!!
This certificate is good and valid for one digital rectometric prostate exam.
Please redeem on tier three, cell block 4
ask for "Tiny"
Thank you for the awesome update! If this keeps up, there will for sure be enough equity for current shareholders to recieve shares of the new stock when they emerge from BK. I plan on adding to my position on Monday. Thanks again for the update!
continued....
As a result of the Debtors' smooth transition to operating in chapter 11, as of the date hereof, the Debtors have never borrowed under the Interim DIP order. The Debtors have utilized the Prepetiion Lenders' cash collateral, but in fact have increased their total cash holdings since the Chapter 11 filing such that they currently hold approximately $316 million in thier operating bank accounts and certain segregated accounts. Indeed, on April 23, 2008, TOUSA received from the Internal Revenue Service a federal tax refund of approximately $207.3 million from the carryback of its 2007 losses. At this time, it does not appear likely that the Debtors will seek a final approval of the DIP Financing: the Debtors' cash holdings appear to be sufficient to meet projected funding needs, and authorization for use of the Prepetition Lenders' cash collateral is all that is needed at this time.
Interesting things filed 4/24 on tousadocket.com.
Since the petition date, the debtors have continued to sell and deliver homes in the ordinary course of business despite nationwide challenges in the real estate market. With respect to home sales, the Debtors have significantly exceeded their projections, signing 356 new net sales contracts in February and 448 new net sales contracts in March of 2008. Deliveries of homes to customers (ie, closings) also exceeded prepetition projections, with delivery of 340 homes in February and 512 homes in March. The Debtors have been working diligently through the process of honoring prepetition obligations as authorized by this Court, and the vast majority of the Debtors' vendors and other business partners have stayed with them since the chapter 11 filing....
Falcone Group reportedly seeks assets
http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2008/04/28/story7.html?q=tousa%20falcone
Committee of unsecured creditors will probably object unless they are paid in full.
But this is good as time is on our side.
I certainly agree that the 4,335 March sales in Arizona were way down from a year ago. But they were up 15.6% from February.
I may be crazy but when I see rising sales from the previous month, I assume that the bottom has already occurred.
That's not to say that there may not be another bottom later this year.
No sense in me trying to beat a dead horse here, for those not impersonating an ostrich, just go Google the news and articles to see what is happening with housing and foreclosures all over the US not just Arizona, lol
No, Here is current news. Bottom happened a couple of months ago.
"A total of 4,335 sales were recorded last month, up 15.6 percent from February ..."
That's current Arizona Info, by the way.
NO, NOT TRUE, is was LAST NITE'S NEWS 4/23/2008, not from a year ago!
By the way, people have been calling a bottom for 6 months and guess what, STILL FALLING! I wouldn't dare try to catch that falling knife!
Well, that's year old news.
Using that comparison, you will find the 'bottom' about 11 months after the rest of us. Not very efficient....
You want current news or old news?
"A total of 4,335 sales were recorded last month, up 15.6 percent from February...."
That's CURRENT Arizona data, by the way.
As you know I was not talking about the figures from a year ago I was talking about THIS YEARS figures being 60% GREATER than a year ago.
thanks for all the good info.
I was considering getting back in...sold at 20
a few weeks ago.
I am resigning as the moderator.
I will pass on the little I know. Sounds like
currents will not be of value.
Hope for your sake I'm wrong.
Cubs
Followers
|
10
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
1408
|
Created
|
10/28/07
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |