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Question: "When in market history has an unfilled gap-ridden rally ever been sustained?"
Answer: I havent found any. However, there are many instances when gap-ridden moves have been completely retraced.
So far there are 8-10 unfilled gaps in the SPX and COMPQ.
Youtuber showing the gaps and extreme RSI calling this a fools rally:
I am planning on the Dec. 1 Gann date being a panicky market low. How low it goes is unpredictable due to a potential January effect. There is also another cycle low due right before Xmas.
SPX may build a wave 4 like the predominant Elliottbloggersphere consensus believes....OR it may become much more unhinged like my Neowave count suggests. So far my bearish count still isnt invalid even with this latest bullish move. Its still within the confines of a fakeout b-wave.
My 3 SPX targets for the early/late December cycle lows...
1090.00
1028.00
or 986.00
Chart with the Dec. 1 Gann date
"Mid November top then largest decline"
from Jim Curry article
Shorter-Term
For the short-term view, the 90-day (18-week) cycle (chart, above) is currently pointing higher off of the late-August bottom, which puts it at 44 days along - and currently regarded as bullish. This cycle is ideally headed higher into around mid-November (plus or minus), with some test of the April high of 1219.80 ideally materializing at some point before it actually rolls over. Major near-term resistance for the upward phase of this component is at or near the 1230 figure (plus or minus) for the SPX, which is the 1.618 projection of the swing up from the July bottom to the early-August high. There is also a smaller 45-day (10-week) cycle, which either bottomed at the 1159.71 swing low (seen on 10/19/10) or, more likely, is extending it's peak - and thus will peak with the larger 90-day component sometime around mid-month.
Once the 90-day wave actually tops in the days/weeks ahead, the SPX should see it's largest percentage decline since coming off the 8/27/10 bottom of 1039.70. The way that path could play out in would be a high around the 1220-1230 level (plus or minus) with this cycle, then to be followed by a decline back to the 1150-1160 range on it's following downward phase. Since we have yet to see any meaningful retracement since coming off the August bottom, the assumption is that whatever decline that is seen with this wave will be an Elliott wave 4, which should come in the form of a 3-wave affair. This cycle is technically due to bottom in the late-November or early-to-mid December timeframe, and, once complete, should give way to new highs again into January, 2011 (i.e., wave 5), with the 180-day target to 1243.16 - 1286.36 acting as a magnet.
This latest bull move has lower volume than the April 2010 bull move which means the smart money and insiders arent buying it.
Adding more short positions next week and averaging down my BGZ cost.
no change waiting for current b-wave to end then wave c to crash back down
Orthodox Elliott high for this bull move is still 10/13, we're now in the b-wave sucker part of the next wave.
Example: The year 1928 saw the Orthodox high for the Dow Jones bull move but a sucker b-wave appeared that took it even higher into 1929.
Any low tomorrow/Friday looks tradeable long. I may play some longs since even sucker b-waves are profitable.
Hurst 6-7 day low due tomorrow/Friday.
SPX should have another sharp rally out of this 6-7 low.
I'm waiting to see now if SPX stalls at 1211.00 area near November 15th....if so I'm shorting again.
November 8 - 11 2010 event window is tipping point similar to 9/11 according to Clif High of Half Past Human
Video here:
http://cosmicgnostic.com/node/1004
How Bradley dates and 10 week cycle may play out...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56215787
Decline off the 10/25 highs into mid morn 10-28 appears to be a Neowave double-combination abc-x-abcde therefore any 1.382+/- b-wave up would last into today.
Tomorrow is key and SPX needs to decline, any rally strength tomorrow I plan to bail on BGZ and re-evaluate.
Election and Fed news needs to cause a breakdown soon for my Hurst phasing and Neowave count to be correct.
US Dollar Index Weekly chart has put in a bullish hammer and may have multi-week rally. Last time the Dollar Index rallied was back into late August and caused the 10 week lows in the SPX
SPX is struggling again to break out above the 10/25 highs, any US Dollar rally here may cause a selloff in stocks and put in fresh 10 week lows.
If Nov. 1 is the Gann 60° Time resistance, U.S. election news tomorrow may be a "sell the fact" event and any negative job report may compound the selling.
The next Hurst 6-7 day low is November 4/5
If the bulls can knock me out of my bear seat, i'll give them credit. (and some of my money)
...but until then....i'm unconvinced of this bull move since 10/13.
BTW before I started this Hurst thread, I was bullish from August 26 +/- .
Into October 11 I started becoming cautious into the Hurst 10 week highs.
Bill McLaren's Gann cycles concerning the 10/25 spike (highlighted)
These are the cycles we've been following and it still looks like the index will top either January or March on a 180 time period from low. There is a possibility of topping at 90 to 99 from low in early December. My forecast calls for a March top at two years from low, 180 calendar days from low with the final thrust 60 or 90 days. In the short term the index showed an exhaustion day on Monday but the move down is two days and 24.4 points which is less than the previous moves down at 3 days and 25 to 26 points. This index matches previous moves or counter trends to an amazing degree and always has. If that is the entire correction here it would indicate support coming in at a high level and the fast move up would still be intact. But if the spike cannot be taken out within the next three days then the index is vulnerable to a much larger correction and the 60 days cycle this weekend represent resistance in time since the index is moving up into it. Short term consensus is at very high levels and could bring a correction but as long as the counter trends are less than 29 points and 3 trading days this trend remains intact. The next correction should be a wave 4 (22 or 30 calendar days) and a final drive (wave 5) to either January or March for top. Price looks like 1247, 1278 to 1288 or 1360 to 1370 and March is now the highest probability.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18748/cnbc-squawkbox-europe
Bull keeps attacking my poker game, but I haven't been hit yet and I'm still sitting down...
Taking heat again on this short trade....yet the SPX has been unable to break above the 10/25 top and is currently only 8+/- points above the 10/13 top.
This hasnt ruled out this being a b-wave bull trap of the larger c down.
Taking heat, but not giving up on the 10 week lows which are due sometime November.
rising VIX is confirming a downside break could occur at any time
staying short here....no change
there are a few ways this pattern can resolve, one is SPX going briefly back to 1090 +/-
I want to be short in case that happens.
megaphone on Dow...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56029533
This c-wave down should contain 5 waves.
So far wave 1 down looks like a completed leading diagonal and they may try a wave 2 rally into the close.
The fastest part of the down will be wave 3 of C and that should hit end of week.
c-wave break immediately ahead
SPX and NYSE acting well.
BGZ in sharp rally.
Buying one final position of BGZ into this mornings strength.
Planning on blowing entire scale out for a profit into the early November Hurst weakness.
NYSE chart acting well....
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=55866291
Sharp downside c-wave break immediately ahead
This Monday morning is completing a b-wave rally....this next c-wave down will be quick and sharp.
The ABCDE appears negated but not the simple ABC.
Measuring the 10/13-10/19 wave A...some targets to watch for wave C....
1.618% of wave A = SPX 1146 +/-
2.618% of wave A = SPX 1122 +/-
Purpose of this thread is to merge Elliott/Neowave pattern setups with Hurst windows to identify swing trades. The evidence has been over the last few weeks to look for a downside swing out of a bullish Neowave pattern completing into a Hurst 10 week high, (hence my persistent short term bearishness.)
This is a more detailed Hurst Elliott chart from previous post showing the potential for fireworks next week....
Here is the NYSE Composite, notice the 10/19 wave A down from the 10/13 high and the wave B we are currently in...which suggests some type of wave C down will be due right in that Gann/Hurst early November window which should at minimum take out the 10/19 low...
This wave B we are in currently could produce a very emotional bullish rally next week....so if it arrives it will be more confirmation of a sharp drop into November which is part of a larger expanding triangle...
scaling 3 new pieces short BGZ @ $11.11
Total 8 scale pieces average cost now $11.35
Hurst 20/10/5 week cycle lows may all hit November 1 area.
Should be a significant low only 1.5 weeks ahead.
Staying short, may add more BGZ on rallies.
5 week cycle may be 6 weeks and bottom with the 10 week.
All eyes on the 10 week cycle low window of November 1, 2010 which is a Gann vibration as identified by Bill McLaren
http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/244/1/October-15-2010-CNBC-SQUAWKBOX-EUROPE/Page1.html
50% retracement is SPX 1113.50 (from Aug 31 low to Oct 13 high)
Flat tops produce drops and this is where drop may be pointing into early November (Hurst 10 week lows)
Even the most bullish Neely count suggests risk/reward is not the greatest here for long ETF's
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=17887
In poker, players tend to act strong when they actually hold a weak hand; likewise, players act weak in the hopes of inducing action when they actually hold a strong hand.
I view todays stong market as mostly an illusion because I think it holds a weak hand short term based on upcoming (what I interpret as bearish) late October-early November cycles.
CCI has also been weakening over the last 10 days on the 10 minute chart.
No change of opinion.
Bear market rallies are fast and short...not giving up on short side here. Most bearish part of the 10 week cycle may just be ahead into November 1 +/- area.
10% per month can return $1,000,000 on a $10,000 investment within 50 months.
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