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thursday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: gap down opening hits new lows, DOW -31
Overnight the Asian markets were lower losing 1.6%. Europe opened lower and declined 0.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly
Jobless claims improved: 350K vs 374K.
Also at 8:30 Export prices were reported lower -1.4% vs -0.5%, as were Import prices: -0.3% vs -0.1%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1335 and continued to decline. The SPX had closed at 1341 yesterday. Around 11:00 the SPX found support in the 1324/27 zone, hitting 1325, and began to rally. The rally carried the SPX to 1339 by 1:30. Then after a 5 point pullback to SPX 1334 by 2:00, the market made a slightly higher high at 1340 before pulling back to end the day at 1335.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.90%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold slipped $5, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum displayed another positive divergence at today's low.
Tomorrow, PPI at 8:30 then Consumer sentiment at 10:00.
The market gapped down at the open today. Broke through support at SPX 1334/38 during the open, and continued down to support at 1324/27. After that the market had a fairly good rally to just above the SPX 1334/38 zone. A volatile day! From the current SPX 1375 uptrend high we can count five waves down into this morning's low: 1363-1374-1333-1344-1325. Five wave declines, of this degree, are often followed by another five wave decline shortly thereafter. This is the typical ABC, zigzag, correction.
This suggests the uptrend may have ended in a large ABC, (see DOW charts), at the recent high. Should this be the situation, a 50 point decline (1375-1325) could be followed by a 20 point rally, then possibly an 80 point decline.
This would complete a zigzag, ending a complex ABC correction from May, around the previous SPX 1267 low.
A break below DOW 12,450 would suggest this scenario is underway.
Short term support is at the SPX 1334/38 and 1324/27 zones, with resistance at the 1342/47 zone and the 1363 pivot. Short term momentum rose above neutral today after the positive divergence low. The short term OEW charts remain negative from around SPX 1350, with the swing point now at 1345. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
SPY_D (indicator 9) gave a sell 7/11/12
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Chart School
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=ad+line&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:advance_decline_indi
.
FOMC Minutes 25 + pages
Took 3 coffees, but I read it all.
Sorry ! URL no longer works
If some one has a GOOD URL,
please post it.
SPY_60 by Art Hill
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the US economy and earnings are dominating the trading landscape. Today, we will get an employment preview with jobless claims. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) are trading at potential support levels, which could mark the make-or-break point for the medium-term uptrends. There are two trends visible on the SPY chart. First, the rising wedge marks a six-week uptrend. Second, the falling channel marks a five-day downtrend. Notice that this downtrend retraced 61.80% and returned to broken resistance from last week’s high (133.4). Also notice that the lower trendline of the rising wedge marks support here. A successful hold and break above 135.4 would reverse this five-day downtrend, but a support break would extend the downtrend and increase the chances of a medium-term trend reversal. RSI is battling support at 40 (medium-term trend) and .60 marks short-term momentum resistance for the 5-period EMA of StochRSI.
XLI_D ( will not up date)
INDUSTRIALS SPDR TESTS WEDGE TRENDLINE... Technology is not the only sector under fire recently. A warning from Cummins Engine weighed on the industrials sector on Tuesday and XLI looks poised to continue its May breakdown. Chart 7 shows XLI with a head-and-shoulders top forming from February to April. After the neckline support break, the stock became quite oversold and bounced back to the break area. A dark cloud formed the first day of July and the stock moved sharply lower the last four days. First, the head-and-shoulders is bearish and remains the dominant chart feature. Second, the rising wedge looks like a mere correction within the bigger downtrend. Third, XLI shows serious relative weakness as the Price Relative hit a new low for 2012.
XLK_D ( will not up date)
TECHNOLOGY SECTOR WEIGHS ON MARKET... The Technology SPDR (XLK) is starting to underperform the broad market again as a bearish wedge takes shape on the chart. Chart 3 shows XLK falling sharply in April-May and then retracing 61.80% of this decline with a rising wedge. Both the retracement and the pattern are typical for counter-trend rallies. The ETF stalled with a spinning top five days ago and then moved lower the last four days. A break below the wedge trendline would signal a continuation of the April-May decline and project a break below the 200-day moving average. The indicator window shows the XLK:SPY ratio falling in April, trading flag in May-June and resuming its fall in July. Weakness in this price relative indicates that techs are starting to underperform again. Relative weakness in this key sector is negative for the market overall.
wednesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market posts a lower low, DOW -49
Overnight the Asian markets mostly ignored yesterday's US decline slipping only 0.2%. Europe opened lower but recovered some -0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the Trade deficit showed a slight improvement: -$48.7 bln vs -$50.1 bln. The market opened flat at SPX 1341, yesterday's close. After a dip to SPX 1339 the market hit 1345 by 10:00. Also at ten Wholesale inventories were reported less positive: +0.3% vs +0.6%. Then the market went into a trading range until the FOMC statement at 2:00: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120711b.htm. After the report the market dropped to SPX 1333 by 2:30, setting up a positive divergence, and tried to rally. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1344 and ended the day at 1341.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.50%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude rallied $2.20, Gold added $8, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying another positive divergence. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims and Export/Import prices at 8:30, then the Budget deficit at 2:00.
The market opened flat today, then went into a trading range until the FOMC minutes were released. One half hour after the report the SPX made a new low for this pullback at 1333. The market then rallied from that low.
But the SPX lost an important support level yesterday at 1344/47, which is now acting as resistance, and dropped through another today at 1334/38 before recovering. The uptrend from SPX 1267 to 1375 is starting to look more and more like an ABC, (see DOW charts). And this recent decline from 1375 is starting to look impulsive. Not good news medium term.
Should the market start to recover these support levels, impulsively, then the uptrend can resume. If not, a retest of the SPX 1267 low is likely to coincide with a two year cycle Tech low in July/August.
Short term support for the SPX is at 1334/38 and then 1324/27, with resistance at 1244/48 and the 1363 pivot. Short term momentum displays a positive divergence at today's low. The short term OEW charts remain negative from around SPX 1350, with the swing point now at 1348. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend looking quite choppy
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
SPY_60 per Art Hill
QQQ and SPY remain with rising wedges since early June, but the trend within these wedges is down.
SPY gapped down last week and held gap resistance with Tuesday’s high.
Even though the four day decline could be a falling flag, I would consider the short-term trend down as long as the gap holds and the flag falls.
A move above 136.4 would break flag resistance. RSI is testing support at 40 and would likely break support should SPY break the rising wedge trendline.
*****Starting study of Northam SPX Cycles
Have no idea where this will take me.
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At the bottom of this chart is DPO from StockCharts
see
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=DPO&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:detrended_price_osci
.
Introduction
The Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) is an indicator designed to remove trend from price and make it easier to identify cycles. DPO does not extend to the last date because it is based on a displaced moving average. However, alignment with the most recent is not an issue because DPO is not a momentum oscillator. Instead, DPO is used to identify cycles highs/lows and estimate cycle length.
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Just a note on a KEY SUPPORT number for the SPX_D
(1) Wyckoff uses 1340
(2) Tony uses 1339
Break of these may result is a "big down move"
so keep on eye open.IMHO.
monday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -36
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.4%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, as well, and the market opened lower at SPX 1353. The SPX had closed at 1355 on friday. Within the opening minutes the SPX touched 1355 and then pulled back to 1347 by 10:30. A rally attempt to SPX 1352 followed by 11:00. But the market dipped again to retest SPX 1347 by noon. Another rally followed to SPX 1353 by 1:30. But it was followed by a pullback to 1348 by 2:30. At 3:00 Consumer credit was reported higher: $17.1 bln vs $6.5 bln. The market then bounced again heading into the close to end the day at SPX 1352.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude rallied $1.25, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a positive divergence at today's lows. Tomorrow the economic slate is clear.
The market opened lower, then dipped down 1 point below friday's low to SPX 1347. Finding support at the SPX 1342/47 range the market tried to rally a couple of times with not much upside progress. Overall today looked like a consolidation day before the market's next move. Naturally, with the market in an uptrend, we expect the next move to be higher.
Once the SPX clears 1358 it should be on its way.
However, after reviewing a few technicals we would like to see the SPX hold above 1339. Should it break this level then there could be more downside ahead.
Short term support remains at SPX 1342/47 and then 1334/38. Short term resistance is at the OEW 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum displays a positive divergence at today's lows. The short term OEW charts ended the day just above neutral with the swing point around SPX 1350. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
Yes, I am well aware of his board. My comment had to do with how well in one chart you explained his system.
***** RRC vs TONY study is complete.
RRC beats TONY most of the time.
Duma
Northam43 has been around for years.
He has documented his trades for years.
see his main board at
http://investorshub.advfn.com/Trading-SPX-Cycles-19170/
Nice charts and info box helpful.
weekend update by tony caldaro
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
After the Primary wave II low the market advanced in five Intermediate waves to complete Major wave 1, of Primary III. Notice Major wave 1, of Primary I, also subdivided into five Intermediate waves. The Major wave 2 correction that followed was shorter than the previous Major wave 2, in time. Major 2, Primary I, was three months. But Major 2, of Primary III, was only one month.
What we are expecting now is an extended, multi-month, possibly into the end of the year, uptrend for Major wave 3. During this bull market we have observed two uptrends that have lasted for seven months: Intermediate iii of Major 1, and Major 3 of Primary I.
Our upside target for this entire advance is the OEW 1499 pivot.
Currently we are counting the first rally off the Major 2 SPX 1267 low to SPX 1363 as Minor wave 1, or possibly Intermediate wave i. The pullback to SPX 1309 is counted as Minor 2, or possibly Intermediate ii. Minor wave 3, (or Intermediate iii), has been underway since that low. If all goes as expected, the pullbacks during this wave should be relatively small, 20 - 30 SPX points, until it completes in a few months.
SHORT TERM
SPX support is at the OEW 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. The uptrend has progressed from SPX 1267 to 1363, Minor wave 1. Then pulled back to SPX 1309/10/13, Minor wave 2. The recent rally to SPX 1375 looks like Minute wave i, with friday's 1348 low Minute wave ii of Minor 3. While a further pullback for Minute ii is possible we think it's unlikely at this time since the market did get quite oversold.
Once the SPX clears the 1358 level we believe the uptrend should resume to new highs.
Short term support is at the SPX 1342/47 area and then 1334/38. Overhead resistance is at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite oversold on friday before rebounding toward neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing point still around SPX 1350. Best to your trading and week!
NEXT WEEK
Monday kicks off the economic week with Consumer credit at 3:00. Wednesday we have the Trade deficit, Wholesale inventories, and the FOMC minutes. Then on thursday, weekly Jobless claims, Export/Import prices, and the Budget deficit. Friday, the PPI and Consumer sentiment. The FED has nothing scheduled at this time. Best to your weekend and week!
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
SMH_D (will not up date)
NETWORKING AND SEMICONDUCTOR ETFS FAIL AT JUNE HIGHS... I am also seeing relative weakness in the Networking iShares (IGN) and the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which represent two key groups within the technology sector. Chart 6 shows SMH breaking down in May and then bouncing back to broken support in mid June.
While SPY moved above its mid June high, SMH did not and showed relative weakness. The support break held and resistance has been affirmed at 33 with the decline on Thursday-Friday. The indicator window shows the SMH:SPY ratio peaking in February and moving to a new low today. Semis represent a key technology group and a cyclical industry. Relative weakness is negative for the market overall.
friday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market gaps down, DOW -124
Overnight the Asian markets declined 0.3%. European markets opened lower and closed -1.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the Payrolls report came in lower than expected: +80K vs +69K. The Unemployment rate remained at 8.2%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1359 and continued to decline. The SPX had closed at 1368 yesterday. Around noon the SPX had declined to 1349 and tried to rally. The rally ended up as a bounce to SPX 1353 by 1:30. Then the market headed back down. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 1348 and tried to rally again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1356 and end the week at 1355.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.30%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude lost $3.05, Gold dropped $20, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX drops to the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance back again at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum was quite oversold at the lows, then bounced with the rally. Today the WLEI upticked for the first time in quite a while: 47.1% vs 46.4%.
The market resumed its pullback today after the monthly Payrolls report came in lower than expected. After a gap down opening the market declined steadily to SPX 1349, with only 2-3 point bounces along the way. An attempted rally around noon could only gather four points to the upside. Then the market headed back towards the lows.
The SPX had cleared the OEW 1363 support pivot minutes after the open, and headed toward the 1342/47 support zone. It found support just one point above at SPX 1348 around 2:30, and then rallied into the close. This 27 point pullback fits well with what was expected. Short term momentum got quite oversold during the decline, and the market held support. Once the SPX clears 1358 the uptrend should resume. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
***** Another good video by Art Hill
http://stockcharts.com/members/videos/20120706-1/
Thursday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: gap down opening market recovers, DOW -47
Overnight the ECB and BOC both lowered rates, and the BOE increased their Bond purchase program by 50 billion pounds. Asian markets were mixed gaining 0.2%. European markets opened higher but lost 0.5%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:15 the ADP was reported higher: 179K vs 136K. Then at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 374K vs 388K. The market gapped down at the open, nevertheless, to SPX 1368. It then bounced to SPX 1371 before heading straight to the 1363 pivot by 10:00. At 10:00 ISM services were reported lower: 52.1 vs 53.7. Right around that time the market started to recover. By 2:00 the SPX had closed the opening gap when it hit 1374. However, it then started to pullback heading into the close, ending the day at SPX 1368.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slid 75 cents, Gold fell $18, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX slips back to the 1363 and 1313 pivots, with resistance now at 1372 and 1386.
Short term momentum declined to neutral from tuesday's negative divergence.
Tomorrow, the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30.
The market gapped down at the open, apparently disappointed the ECB did not start LTRO 3 and only cut rates. The pullback, from tuesday's SPX 1375 high, was only 12 points to 1363. Then, possibly encouraged by today's rally in Apple, the market worked its way higher from ten o'clock to two o'clock and essentially closed the gap before pulling back in the last two hours of trading.
Normally, when a negative divergence takes hold the market usually gets oversold before attempting to make higher highs again. Thus far the pullback has only been to neutral. The pullback that started at SPX 1375 may not be over. Should it resume tomorrow/monday the SPX could pullback to the lower range of the 1363 pivot (1356), or even the next support area at 1342/47. Then the uptrend should resume. Short term support is at the 1363 pivot and SPX 1342/47, with resistance at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. The short term OEW charts remain positive, with the swing point around SPX 1350. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
SPX_D has a LOWER HIGH Today.
So the short cover may be done.
Trend: another tag of the lower TL would also fill that pesky gap?
SPY_60
On the 60-minute chart, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) could be forming a rising wedge, but this wedge is clearly rising and the trend is up as long as the wedge rises. SPY gapped above resistance at 134 and extended its gains on Monday-Tuesday. Monday’s little dip formed a low for the first support level at 135.40. Should SPY break this level and should the 5-period EMA of StochRSI break below .40, a short-term downswing would be in effect. Key support is based on the June lows. It would take a break below this level to fully reverse the rising wedge.
***** So why did I miss this up move ?
Because I missed the BULLISH DIVERGENCE
see AD LINE in StockCharts School
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=AD+LINE&id=chart_school:technical_indicators:advance_decline_indi
tuesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: new uptrend highs, DOW +72
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and the market opened a point lower than yesterday's SPX 1366 close. In the first few minutes the market dipped to SPX 1364, and then began to rally.
At 10:00 Factory orders were reported higher: +0.7% vs -0.6%. Monthly Auto sales were also higher: F +7% and GM +16%. The rally continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1375, clearing the 1363 pivot and entering the 1372 pivot range. A pullback followed to SPX 1370 by 12:30. Then the market rallied into a SPX 1374 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude surged $3.80, Gold rallied $24, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX jumps to the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence. The market closed early today ahead of tomorrow's Independence day holiday. Cash markets will open again on thursday.
The market opened flat today, rallied to new uptrend highs at SPX 1375 and just about closed there.
The day ended with negative divergences across all timeframes including daily. However, with the cash market closed tomorrow and foreign markets open, these divergences may not mean much yet. On thursday the ECB meets, and will likely conclude before Wall Street opens.
July 5th should be an interesting day.
On the world stock market scene, 85% of the world's markets are now in confirmed uptrends. Looks like more upside is ahead in the weeks, months to come. Short term support is now at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 pivot and SPX 1402/03.
The short term OEW charts remain positive from under SPX 1330, with the swing point now at 1344. Best to your holiday!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
SPY_60 Jul 03, 2012
The economic news was mixed on Monday. May construction spending hit its highest level in over 2 years. A decrease in public sector construction spending was offset by an increase in private sector spending. The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped below 50 (49.7), which is the first reading below 50 since 2009. Readings below 50 indicate economic weakness. With the index at 53.5 in May, the June reading below 50 represents a pretty big decline. Moreover, it is just another key indicator that came in below expectations. Today we have Auto-Truck Sales and Factory Orders. US markets close at 1PM ET today and will be closed all day on Wednesday for July 4th. Have a happy and safe holiday!
On the 60-minute chart, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) took the negative news on manufacturing in stride by posting a small gain. Strength in the technology and finance sectors offset weakness in the industrials and materials sectors. Overall, SPY edged above is mid June highs and remains in an uptrend for four weeks now. There are two support levels to watch going forward. First, broken resistance in the 133.5-134 area turns support. A strong gap and breakout should hold. Failure to follow through and a move below 133.5 would suggest underlying weakness. Key support remains at 130.50, a level tested five times in June. A break below this level would have medium-term consequences because it would signal a continuation of the May decline.
Not so at all.I like your setups.U are very knowledgeable
MB3
What I think is not important.
What do you think ???
Either up or down.Is that the answer u are looking for!
MB3
Before you go to sleep, where do you think the market is going ?
Thank u very much for the explanation.Now I understand your trends!Have a good night
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