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SPY_60 From Art Hill
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke rising wedge support with a sharp decline and this break remains the dominant chart feature. Broken support in the 134-134.3 area turns into the first resistance level to watch. A sharp surge back above 134.3 would suggest a failed breakout. The mid June lows mark the next support zone in the 130.5-131 area. RSI broke below 40 to turn momentum bearish and 60 becomes resistance.
SPY_D From At Hill
Jun 25, 2012 SPY Breaks Wedge Support as UUP Breaks Wedge Resistance
It is shaping up to be another big week on Wall Street and in Europe. On the news front, we have some key economic reports, another critical EU Summit and a potential ruling on healthcare reform. On the technical front, note that the major index ETFs failed at broken support levels and the 61.80% retracement lines with Thursday’s sharp decline. Even though stocks firmed on Friday and inside days formed, last week’s high could mark a significant peak. At worst, the bigger downtrend is continuing, which means the major index ETFs will move below their early June lows.
SPX_W TARGET of 1200-1250 area by October-November
By Arthur Hill
SETTING DOWNSIDE TARGETS FOR S&P 500 AND THE DOW...Link for today’s video. The European debt crisis has certainly dominated the news over the last few months and EU problems have been blamed for weakness in US equities. While EU woes may be partly to blame, I think slowing growth in the US is more to blame. European issues are definitely important to Europeans, but the debt crisis is really just a sideshow in the US. Similarly, US issues are a sideshow in Europe. European debt issues have been dominating the news since early 2010, which is when the Greek troubles first started. The S&P 500 has been a roller coaster since early 2010, but the index is still up since January 2010. The US economy is the main act for the US stock market.
In an interesting twist, the current situation in the US is looking just like June-July-August 2011. Economic data took a dip in this period and the S&P 500 got hit hard in August. After a turbulent summer, the stock market bottomed in the fall and surged to new highs in early 2012. Are we due for a repeat? Perhaps. At the very least, we need to see economic reports beat expectations and the employment report surprise to the upside. Such news would push money out of treasuries and into the stock market. As John Murphy noted on Thursday, stocks and treasuries compete for money. Sustainable gains in the stock market are unlikely as long as treasuries remain strong. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 over the last three years. I am sticking with my forecast for the S&P 500 to move into the 1200-1250 area by October-November. This forecast is based on a rising channel taking shape since 2010 and a 50-61.80% retracement of the prior advance. The 13-week slope remains in negative territory and has yet to make a sharp u-turn. Chart 2 shows the Dow with a target in the 11500-11700 area.
StokChats has FREE 10 day trial
Some Wyckoff research using TZA_1
(1) Wyckoff says Volume Spike indicates "change of Direction"
About 200,000 in one minute seems to do it.
(2) Also added "touch of BB" to help with "Volume Spike"
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It seems "Above the Green Line" got a sell on the SPX_60
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IWM_60 (will not update)
SPY_60 The moment-of-truth arrived with Wednesday’s close and the bears took control. As noted earlier this week, the major index ETFs were all trading near their 61.80% retracement lines and forming rising wedge patterns. While the patterns are typical for bear market rallies, the trend is up as long as the wedge rises. The first bearish signals were triggered yesterday when the major index ETFs broke support from Wednesday’s low. On the SPY chart, the ETF broke below the lower trendline of the rising wedge and RSI moved below 40 for the first time since early June. The decline started strong and finished strong, which is also bearish. Broken support around 134.2 turns into the first resistance level to watch.
Thu, Jun 21 2012 1:46 PM ET Market Message
BIG DROP IN FOREIGN STOCKS PULLS US MARKET LOWER
-- DOLLAR BOUNCES AS COMMODITIES DROP
-- STOCK INDEXES SLIP BACK BELOW 50--DAY LINES --
FED POLICY MAY ACTUALLY BE HURTING STOCKS
By John Murphy
S&P 500 SLIPS BACK BELOW 50-DAY LINE... Foreign stock selling is pulling U.S. lower as well. Unfortunately, it's coming at a bad time. Chart 6 shows that the S&P 500 has been testing an overhead resistance line drawn under its April lows near 1360. That's an important test because it determines if the recent rebound is just a bounce in a downtrend or a rally with legs. The S&P 500 has not only backed off from that resistance line, but is trading back below its 50-day average. . Chart 7 shows theNasdaq Composite Index also in danger of failing that test of resistance. Decisive closes below those 50-day lines would raise the possibility of a rally failure.
Near the close and Vol Thrust says sideways to up for 6/22/12
SPX_D Looks like latest up move was a 3 Throw Back
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SPY_60
The moment-of-truth is here for the major index ETFs. After a nice June advance, IWM, QQQ and SPY retraced 61.80% of their prior declines and met some resistance on Wednesday. On the 60-minute chart, SPY formed a rising wedge and stalled in the 135-136 zone. The wedge is still rising because the lower trendline has yet to be broken. A move below 134 would break wedge support and provide the first signal for a short-term trend reversal. RSI remains in bull mode with support marked at 40. The 5-period EMA of StochRSI, however, plunged below .40 to signal a short-term shift in the momentum of momentum, which is essentially acceleration. Yes, StochRSI is a momentum indicator of RSI, which is also a momentum indicator. Normally, I look for bearish signals in StochRSI when RSI is in bear mode and the 50-60 zone is acting as resistance. The current bear signal in StochRSI occurred with RSI in bull mode because the 40-50 zone is acting as support.
IWM_D
SPX_D
&P 500 STALLS AT KEY RETRACEMENT LEVEL... Dow Theory teaches us that there are primary and secondary price movements. A primary movement is in the direction of the bigger trend, while a secondary price movement is counter to that trend. In an uptrend, a primary move is up and prices are expected to exceed the prior peak. Secondary moves are down and these corrections are expected to hold above the prior trough. The opposite holds for a downtrend. The primary moves are down and prices are expected to exceed the prior troughs. The secondary moves are up and prices are expected to fall short of the prior peaks. Now if we could just distinguish between primary and secondary price movements! Chart 3 shows the S&P 500 with a sharp decline from early April to early June. Was this a primary move or a secondary move?
As noted in a prior market message, there is a clear five wave structure to this decline, which would indicate a primary move from an Elliott Wave standpoint.
Also notice that the index clearly broke support in the 1360 area and the decline was strong enough to push RSI into oversold territory (<30). These features suggest that the decline was primary, which makes the current advance secondary.
$TNX
SPX_30
IWM_60
From Art Hill ( see if this charts up dateds)
On the 60-minute chart, SPY surged above 135 and has now retraced 61.80% of the May decline.
The trend is clearly up as long as SPY holds the rising wedge, but this advance is getting long on tooth as it hits the 61.80% retracement line.
Broken resistance turns into first support in the 133 area.
RSI support is set at 40.
Note that all three major index ETFs are at their moment-of-truth (61.80% retracement lines).
The Fed meets today with an announcement set for 12:30 and a presser at 14:30.
The market has build in some high expectations so the Fed better deliver.
PS: StockCharts offers a 10 day free trial.
From Art Hill
On the 60-minute chart, SPY surged above 135 and has now retraced 61.80% of the May decline.
The trend is clearly up as long as SPY holds the rising wedge, but this advance is getting long on tooth as it hits the 61.80% retracement line.
Broken resistance turns into first support in the 133 area.
RSI support is set at 40.
Note that all three major index ETFs are at their moment-of-truth (61.80% retracement lines).
The Fed meets today with an announcement set for 12:30 and a presser at 14:30.
The market has build in some high expectations so the Fed better deliver.
PS: StockCharts offers a 10 day free trial.
Third test, but this time from Public Charts
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June 5 Wait for the Money Wave to turn up for a bounce!
May 18 Wait for Money Wave to turn up for a bounce.
Apr 27 Re-testing highs.
Apr 16 Finally down to Red Line (50-day avg.). Buy if it bounces for a quick trade.
Apr 9 Buy when the Money Wave comes down below 20 and turns up!
Mar 23 Bouncing off the 10-day avg... Must make new highs or pull-back should begin.
Mar 19 Caution! Way Above the Green Line... Buy when it corrects to the Red Line (50-day avg.)
Tue, Jun 19 2012 4:17 PM ET
Previous Market Message Next Market Message
JUNK BONDS JUMP WHILE TREASURIES LOOK TOPPY
-- MAJOR STOCK INDEXES CLEAR 50-DAY AVERAGES
-- FEDEX JUMPS 3% ON STRONG VOLUME
-- FALLING DOLLAR TESTS MARCH PEAK
-- COMMODITIES EXPERIENCE MINOR BOUNCE --
FED ANNOUNCEMENT TOMORROW MAY TEST STOCK RALLY
By John Murphy
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IWM_W See 2 blue circles. Will it Reverse ????
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*****BEAR is not dead ....yet.
BEAR now in intensive care unit.
For 6/20/12 high probability of sideway to down.IMHO.
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Will show a weekly chart of IWM_W later
with explanation ...
Another test of different symbol
Test from Art Hill's charts.
(1) I see chart.
(2) Does it auto up date ? We will see.
(3) Can other people see chart ? Let me know ...
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SPX_30 Easy to see turn, if it happens.
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Bear is having a "heart attack" Today .Let's look at his EKG
Will it show a down to side ways day for 6/20/12 ?
Stay tuned .....
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