TORM PLC (TRMD)

[pickinstocks]

Yeah, I'm not sure here. This whole situation is a mess as far as the global economy. I haven't kept up with this company enough lately to know if a bottom could be in sight though. Sorry :-/

[dealorfx]

watching for a bottom bounce here, but wonder if it's worth it?


trouble in Europe, China, kinda makes me skeptical on some of these

over sold issues.

your thoughts?

good trades
Stan
,,,,,$$$$$

[dealorfx]

>>>>>>>>>>>April 27, 2010 will be the last day of trading for Claymore/Delta Global Shipping Index ETF on the NYSE Arca, Inc. (the “NYSE Arca”). Effective that day, the Fund will be closed to new investments through creation activity. It is anticipated that the NYSE Arca will halt trading in the Fund before the open of trading on April 28, 2010. All shareholders remaining on April 28, 2010 will receive a cash distribution following the liquidation of the underlying securities. The cash distribution will represent the final value of the Fund’s shares, which will include any capital gains and dividends.<<<<<<<<<<<<<

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Claymore-Announces-Fund-bw-3322929562.html?x=0&.v=1
.

[dealorfx]

looks like TRMD could almost retest $7/share, then will it be a bargain there or not?

[Hedge Starz]

this was inevitable....i don't know how they kept this up after last earnings

[pickinstocks]

not just broke. It was smashed.

[dealorfx]

well. finally broke the support.

wow
.
.

[dealorfx]

here's the stock to be in, but late

[dealorfx]

TRMD misbehaving like usual..........

[dealorfx]

holding BTN all year, could be a huge winner into the high teens.

[pickinstocks]

nope, but yeah it looks to be taking off

[dealorfx]

have you been following my BTN pick?

going ballistic.

[dealorfx]

Earnings Anticipation Grips Dry Bulk Stocks Amid Euro-Zone Debt Worries (GNK, DRYS, NM, SB, EXM, DSX, EGLE)

by Owen Vater | April 28th
Filed in: Stock Sector News

The dry bulk shipping sector is gearing up for earnings season, and Genco Shipping & Trading (GNK) led the most recent rally.

Genco shares were up by as much as 4.5% today as investors turn their eye to analyst optimism and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) — an industry pricing benchmark. The BDI is on its first notable breakout since mid-March, and while it remains well off highs reached in late 2009, the recent spike gives dry bulk bulls something to chew on ahead of the sector’s earnings season.

As a whole, the Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks Index has outperformed the S&P 500 by 7% over the past month as signs of continued economic recovery trickle in. While select stocks like Navios Maritime (NM) and Safe Bulkers (SB) have more than doubled since hitting 52-week lows, the industry has been slow to recover from the global economic downturn.

BB&T Capital Markets analyst Kevin Sterling told Reuters, “Spot rates were strong during the first quarter, so it is going to be a spot-rate-driven scenario.” The report notes that Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM) and Genco could be beneficiaries of their exposure to the spot market.

Genco and Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) will report earnings on May 3, followed by DryShips on May 4, and Diana Shipping (DSX) will report later in the month, all according to Yahoo Finance data.

Investors can track the Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks Index for performance trends and a suite of other metrics at tickerspy.com.


Tags: DRYS, DSX, EGLE, EXM, GNK, NM, SB

source:tickerspy

[dealorfx]

still acting like crap.....
.
.
.

[dealorfx]

The Shape Of Dry Bulk Shipping

Posted: Apr 19, 2010 09:05 AM by Stephen Simpson
Those huge panamax and capesize freighters may look peaceful as they sail slowly across the oceans, but the stocks behind them are anything but. Betas in the dry bulk space are exceptionally high, with many companies sporting betas above three. Pick the right stock at the right time, and it is easy to see how shipping built the fortunes of many a magnate. Of course, picking the wrong stocks can be like tying your money to an anchor and tossing it over the side.

In Pictures: 7 Forehead-Slapping Stock Blunders

A Simple Business
Dry bulk shipping is quite possibly one of the simplest industries for an investor to approach. The nature of the industry is to acquire ships, contract with customers and deliver the cargo. When Peabody (NYSE:BTU) wants to send coal to China or Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM) wants to send grain to Japan, they contract with a dry bulk shipping company.

A Way to Play the Recovery?
The biggest reason to own a shipping company stock today is the nascent economic recovery. As economies recover, trade should rebound, and that will increase the demand for international shipping. That, in turn, should lead to an increase in shipping rates, which is often measured through the Baltic Dry Index (BDI).

Of course, China is a major factor here as well. China has been a voracious consumer of coal and iron ore in recent years, and it does not seem that these imports are tailing off. Longer-term, it is possible that India could emerge as more of a factor as well, but that is many years away. (For more, see The Baltic Dry Index: Evaluating An Economic Recovery.)

A Delicate Balance
There are two major risks to any shipping investment: demand and supply. Pricing in this industry is extremely sensitive to even minor changes in the economic balance, and there is practically no such thing as an economic moat in this sector. Consider the fact that the rates for panamax ships are now less than half of what they were in 2008, but nearly a third higher than in 2009.

Some analysts in this space have publicly fretted about the amount of new supply coming onto the market - maybe as much as 10% a year for the next few years - but so far at least, new ship deliveries have been trending far below the announced order books, as much as 80% in the case of Handymax ships. So long as this fragile economic recovery continues and new deliveries are slow to come, these stocks could work.

Names to Watch
Investors are not exactly hurting for choice when it comes to shipping stocks. Genco Shipping (NYSE:GNK), Excel Maritime (NYSE:EXM), Navios Maritime (NYSE:NM), Eagle Bulk (Nasdaq:EGLE), DryShips (Nasdaq:DRYS) and Diana (NYSE:DSX) are all major names in the space. Remember, though, that does not include the crude carriers or container ship companies.

There are a few relevant ways to sort out this group. First, you can look at the basic operating philosophy vis-a-vis long-term contracts versus spot rates. Signing customers to long-term charters guarantees a stream of revenue, but leaves the company high and dry if spot rates jump. Of course, spot rates can plummet and companies without those contracts can go bust if rates drop below operating costs. DryShips and Navios both operate with very high levels of contract coverage, while Frontline (NYSE:FRO) operates much more on spot rates.

Fleet size and composition is also important. Generally speaking, newer fleets are cheaper to operate and maintain. The type of ship is also important, though. I believe Eagle Bulk has an inherent advantage in having a large fleet of the smaller handymax-type of ship. This ship class can service the smaller ports that are common in Asia and developing markets, and this gives the company an advantage until newer, larger ports become commonplace.

I would also like to mention two other unconventional names: Kirby (NYSE:KEX) and Ship Finance (NYSE:SFL). Kirby is basically a ringer; it is not a dry bulk carrier, but rather an operator of inland barges in the U.S. Ship Finance is effectively a lessor of ships that orders and finances ships, but then contracts them out to operators like Frontline. With long-term charters in place and a respectable history of cash flow and dividend payments, Ship Finance could be an idea well-suited to the more income-oriented investors.

What to Do
Industries like shipping sometimes lead me to an unconventional piece of advice: do not obsess about the fundamental analysis. I would never suggest that shipping stocks make good long-term holdings, and when you are looking for successful trades or looking to play themes, the fundamentals can fool you. So while the high debt levels and low ROICs of this space do worry me, they will not really matter if the BDI jumps back to 2008 levels.
http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2010/The-Shape-Of-Dry-Bulk-Shipping-GNK-EXM-DRYS-NM-EGLE0419.aspx?partner=tickerspy

[dealorfx]

looks like it was bear trap. volume was low, I think this is headed


down big time next week.

[dealorfx]

look at the group as a whole that I follow.

I was going to buy back in, but I got burned last time and now
very skeptical of this stock. hopefully a better trend or spread
soon. volume is still skimpy and I'm on the sidelines in cash.

too many ifs and and buts/

good trades
Stan
.
.
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?trmd,osg,gnk,ksp,tk,dht,cplp|B

[pickinstocks]

I'm glad I got out..this stock is crazy and I just didn't understand it. Opening up this much today? What gives...

[dealorfx]

boy, this stock is really scary now, what will happen when

the euro zone falls apart if and when it does?

[dealorfx]

would have been better of buying the ETF SEA

geezus

[Hedge Starz]

o finviz is absolutely awesome. checkout the equity screeners

[dealorfx]

nice website, I like it...........

thank you.

[Hedge Starz]

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HO&p=w1

[dealorfx]

turning nicely here now, but my favorite now is BTN

Im loading up on that one for sure.

plenty of time for TRMD

good luck to all
Stan

[dealorfx]

Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 3429. The two-week loss in the Baltic dry-bulk shipping rate index for the larger ships was 93 points and below the previously estimated range with a 3500 low. The Capital Link Tanker Index declined 23.62 points, now at 2335.29. The shipping industry is facing serious overcapacity issues that will keep pressuring freight rates.

http://www.ivolatility.com/roller/page/trader?entry=volume_10_issue_13_br

[dealorfx]

SEA ETF taking off and TRMD diverging, something really askew here.


under performing big time. wonder what the hell is going on?

[dealorfx]

I wasn't going to wait around for 9 or low 8ssssss, this stock is


really acting funny lately. damm hedge funds really know how
to manipulate these trades I don't care what anybody says.

on the sidelines for now until I see a change of interest.

[Hedge Starz]

anyone else surprised we aren't in the 9s or 8s?

[dealorfx]

STOCKS NEWS EUROPE-Torm falls; Jyske cites lower rates

Mon Mar 29, 2010 4:02pm BST

Shares in Denmark-based shipping group Torm (TORM.CO) falls as much as 2.5 percent, the leading faller in Copenhagen's top-20 index , with Jyske Bank attributing the weakness to a dip in product tanker rates over the past few weeks to a spot price of about $10,000 a day.

"There's nothing suggesting that rates would rise in spring or summer as new tonnage is being delivered at a pace that exceeds demand growth," Jyske says in a research note.

Jyske rates Torm as "reduce", saying the stock's valuation is not attractive and that no essential share price triggers are in sight in the short term.

Reuters Messaging rm://[e-mail]

[dealorfx]

definitely something wrong here with TRMD

cut my losses for now looking to re enter after the 30 day rule.

I'll take a looksee at those after awhile. thanks and check in frequently, perhaps we can exchange a few ideas off and on while
we are waiting for something here to take hold, if it ever will.

geezus, Both SEA and GNK up nice, the others I follow seems to be experiencing the same as TRMD, let's see over time.

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?trmd,osg,gnk,ksp,tk,dht,cplp|B

good trades
Stan

[pickinstocks]

take a look at some small chinese growth stocks. Their economy is booming, and they aren't being squashed by interest rates increasing over there. SORL (scorching hot after good earnings so maybe wait a bit). CNAM, insane upside potential. KERX(not chinese), potential blockbuster drugs in pipeline but had a 2000% increase from their low last year. Dunno what the best buy point would be, but I think these have tons of potential. Hop off this sinking ship, and hop on some of those.

[dealorfx]

Analyst Sees BDI Lift, Suggests Dry Bulk Short Squeeze (DSX, GNK, EXM, DRYS, ONAV, OCNF, EGLE)
by Owen Vater | March 29th
Analysts at Credit Suisse are bullish on Diana (DSX) and see a potential short squeeze elsewhere in the sector.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) — an industry benchmark for rates in the dry bulk shipping segment — has pulled back since breaking above 3,500 for the first time since December earlier this month. The index remains well off its November high of more than 4,650, but Credit Suisse is bullish on select dry bulk stocks, citing economics related to the recent shipping rates for Capesize and Panamax vessels. The firm called Diana its top pick in the segment, and suggested that Genco Shipping & Trading’s (GNK) “significant short interest” could get squeezed in the event of a BDI reversal.

A rebound for the benchmark would mean good things for the laggard Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks Index. As a whole the Index has trailed the S&P 500 by -6.5% over the last month, and the majority of its components remain more than -25% off their 52-week highs.

Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM), pro-favorite DryShips (DRYS), Omega Navigation Enterprises (ONAV), and OceanFreight (OCNF) all closed -50% or more from their respective one-year high water marks on Friday.

The shorts weighed on Genco as well as Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) last week as the stocks slipped by more than -4% in five sessions. It will be interesting to see whether Credit Suisse is on target with its BDI optimism, and whether it’s enough to scare some bears into covering their bets.

As of this writing, the Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks Index is one of the 15 worst-performing tickerspy Indexes over the last month, down by -1.2%.

http://www.tickerspy.com/newswire/?p=1827

[dealorfx]

paint the tape at the close

.
.
.
Time & Sales
Price Size Exch Time
10.59 100 NGS 16:00:01
10.39 376 NYE 15:58:35
10.39 300 NGS 15:58:35
10.39 100 NGS 15:51:42
10.38 172 NGS 15:48:25
10.39 300 NGS 15:48:04
10.39 100 NGS 15:47:49
10.39 100 NGS 15:47:49
10.39 500 NGS 15:47:49
10.39 100 NYE 15:47:49
10.39 500 NDD 15:47:49
10.39 100 NDD 15:47:34
10.39 500 NGS 15:47:34
10.39 1600 NYE 15:47:02
10.39 300 NGS 15:47:02

[dealorfx]

really getting sad, Im watching SEA and GNK just a blasting off

I cant take much more.

kerplunk

whats in your poor/folio

[dealorfx]

agree, I'm waiting just a tad longer, I monitor it closely anyway.

perhaps a little bounce to cut the loss a little softer.

keep tracking though, if the year does pick up, it will still be a good trade. jmo though.\\

good luck in your trades
Stan

[pickinstocks]

I sold it and cut my losses. It is dead money, and if it goes up, oh well. I think there are better places to be invested right now, especially with the crummy 2010 outlook they have.

[dealorfx]

same here, because as soon as I do they tend to move up.

I forget what they call that syndrome.

I'll be patient awhile longer and see what unfolds.

there is no sellers so not worried either just yet.

difficult decision but I also hate dead money laying around.

good trades and all that other stuff</;)~

Stan
,,,,,$$$$$

[pickinstocks]

Yeah, I'm considering putting my money elsewhere. We seem to be stuck where we are. I just can't bring myself to hit sell :) haha.

[dealorfx]

GNK up over a $1.00 now, we're in the wrong one.

swell.

[dealorfx]

the good point is TRMD is trading above the 5 day ema, we could

be possibly sneaking up over the mid point threshold and in for a slight bounce.

stay tuned in ya hear!!

[dealorfx]

OVERALL, TRMD PERFORMING SLIGHTLY BETTER IN MY PEER GROUP....fwiw
.
.
.
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?TRMD,OSG,GNK,KSP,TK,DHT,CPLP,SFL,GLNG|B
.
.

[dealorfx]

TRMD chart analysis...........

.
.

TRMD [NASD]
Steamship Co. Torm A/S
Services - Shipping - Denmark
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TRMD&?a=8850870
.

[dealorfx]

just a thought........

Genco shipping travelling the same trading pattern almost as TRMD>somewhat


watch for signs of turning up and base your judgement on that.

[dealorfx]

as long as my other pick


BTN is doing well, I will continue to hold TRMD.

take a peek at it, I been accumulating for sometime and really
doing well. I have a couple more that have some good potential and
solid balance sheets.

talk later
Stan
,,,,,$$$$$

[pickinstocks]

I'm hoping to get close to breaking even and I'm just going to sell and put my money elsewhere. Just not enough upside in this one, but I don't want to cut my loss too soon if we will keep getting more of a rebound with this bullish market.

[dealorfx]

looking at the weekly chart for TRMD, this has been dead money for over a year now.

[dealorfx]

$10.80 is resistance, if TRMD pushes through that, a new uptrend

may begin.

[dealorfx]

filled the gap now up and away I hope we go, this stock is undervalued.

cut us a break hedgee!!

[dealorfx]

this is one of those things with TRMD< when she gaps, she does


what she does inherently by itself. one hell of a stock, interesting,

yet, unexplainable.

much luck in your patience,

Stan
.....%$$$$$

[pickinstocks]

interesting start to the day...