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Understanding Fundamentals
In business and economics, fundamentals represent the primary characteristics and financial data necessary to determine the stability and health of an asset. This data can include macroeconomic, or large-scale factors, and microeconomic, or small-scale factors to set a value on securities or businesses.
Analysts and investors examine these fundamentals to develop an estimate as to whether the underlying asset is considered a worthwhile investment, and if there is fair valuation in the market. For businesses, information such as profitability, revenue, assets, liabilities, and growth potential are considered fundamentals. Through the use of fundamental analysis, you may calculate a company's financial ratios to determine the feasibility of the investment.
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While fundamentals are most often considered factors that relate to particular businesses or securities, national economies, and their currencies also have a set of fundamentals that can be analyzed. For example, interest rates, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, trade balance surplus/deficits, and inflation levels are some factors that are considered to be fundamentals of a nation's value.
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Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Fundamentals
Macroeconomic fundamentals are topics that affect an economy at-large, including statistics regarding unemployment, supply and demand, growth, and inflation, as well as considerations for monetary or fiscal policy and international trade. These categories can be applied to the analysis of a large-scale economy as a whole or can be related to individual business activity to make changes based on macroeconomic influences. Large scale, macroeconomic fundamentals are also part of the top-down analysis of individual companies.
Microeconomic fundamentals focus on the activities within smaller segments of the economy, such as a particular market or sector. This small-scale focus can include issues of supply and demand within the specified segment, labor, and both consumer and firm theories. Consumer theory investigates how people spend within their particular budget restraints. The theory of the firm states that a business exists and makes decisions to earn profits.
Fundamentals in Business
By looking at the economics of a business, including the overall management and the financial statements, investors are looking at a company's fundamentals. Not only do these data points show the health of the business, but they also indicate the probability of further growth. A company with little debt and sufficient cash is considered to have strong fundamentals.
Strong fundamentals suggest that a business has a viable framework or financial structure. Conversely, those with weak fundamentals may have issues in the areas of debt obligation management, cost control, or overall organizational management. A business with strong fundamentals may be more likely to survive adverse events, like economic recessions or depressions, than one with weaker fundamentals. Also, strength may indicate less risk should an investor consider purchasing securities associated with the businesses mentioned.
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Fundamental Analysis
Investors and financial analysts are interested in evaluating the fundamentals of a company to compare its economic position relative to its industry peers, to the broader market, or to itself over time. Fundamental analysis involves digging deep into a company's financial statements to extract its profit and growth potential, relative riskiness, and to ultimately decide if its shares are over, under, or fairly valued in the market.
Often fundamental analysis involves computing and analyzing ratios to make apples-to-apples comparisons. Some common fundamental analysis ratios are listed below.
The debt-to-equity ratio (DE) measures how a company is financing its operations.
The quick ratio measures the company’s ability to meet its short-term obligations.
The degree of financial leverage (DFL) measures the stability or volatility of the earnings per share (EPS).
The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio compares investment to earnings dollars.
The DuPont analysis looks at return on equity (ROE) by looking at asset use efficiency, operating efficiency, and financial leverage.
Fundamental analysis should be carried out with a holistic approach, utilizing several ratios and including a bottom-up as well as a top-down analysis to come to specific conclusions and actions.
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Real World Example
In the fourth quarter of 2018, according to Market Watch, large-cap tech companies Microsoft and Apple had similar market caps for the first time since 2010. Although the two companies had similar market caps of about $850 billion, they had very different fundamentals. For example, Microsoft was trading at 45X earnings while Apple was trading at 15X earnings.1
What is the book value of the common share?
Book value per common share (or simply book value per share - BVPS) is a method of calculating the book value per share of a company based on the equity of the common shareholders in the company. A company's book value is the difference between that company's total assets and total liabilities, not its market share price.
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In the event of the dissolution of the company, the book value of each ordinary share indicates the remaining dollar value of the ordinary shareholders after all assets are liquidated and all debtors are paid.
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Understand the book value
The equation for the book value of a common share is:
Book value per ordinary share (formula below) is an accounting measure based on historical transactions:
What does BVPS tell you?
The book value of ordinary shares in the numerator reflects the original returns that the company receives from the issuance of ordinary shares, which are increased by profits or decreased due to losses, and decreased by dividends paid. Company share buybacks reduce the book value and the total number of common shares. Stock buybacks occur at current stock prices, which can lead to a significant reduction in the company's book value per common stock. The number of common shares used in the denominator is usually the average number of diluted ordinary shares of the past year, which takes into account any additional shares other than the number of underlying shares that could arise from stock options, guarantees, preferred shares, and other convertible instruments.
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Example of BVPS
As a hypothetical example, suppose XYZ Manufacturing's common stock balance is $ 10 million, and one million shares of common stock outstanding, which means that BVPS is ($ 10 million / 1 million shares), or $ 10 per share. If XYZ manages to generate higher profits and uses those profits to buy more assets or reduce liabilities, the company's common stock increases. For example, if a company makes a profit of $ 500,000 and uses $ 200,000 of the profits to purchase the assets, the common stock increases along with the BVPS. On the other hand, if XYZ uses $ 300,000 in dividends to reduce liabilities, the common stock also increases.
The difference between the market value of the share and the book value of the share
The market value per share is the company's current share price, and it reflects the value that market participants are willing to pay for their regular share. Book value per share is calculated using historical costs, but market value per share is a forward-looking measure that takes into account the firm's future earnings strength. With increases in the company's estimated profitability, projected growth, and soundness of its business, the market value per share grows higher. Material differences arise between the book value per share and the market value per share due to the ways in which accounting principles classify certain transactions.
For example, consider a company's brand value, which was created through a series of marketing campaigns. US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) require marketing costs to be spent promptly, which reduces the book value per share.1 However, if the advertising efforts enhance the company's product image, the company can charge premium rates and create brand value. Market demand may lead to an increase in the share price, which creates a large discrepancy between the market and the book values per share.
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The difference between book value of common stock and net asset value (NAV)
Whereas, BVPS considers the residual equity per share of the company's shares, net asset value, or NAV, to be the value per share computed for a mutual fund, exchange-traded fund, or ETF. For any of these investments, the net asset value is calculated by dividing the total value of all fund securities by the total number of fund shares outstanding. NAV is created daily for mutual funds. A number of analysts consider total annual return to be a better and more accurate measure of mutual fund performance, but net asset value is still used as an easy-to-use interim valuation tool.
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BVPS limits
Because the book value per share only takes into account book value, it fails to incorporate other intangible factors that may increase the market value of the company's shares, even upon liquidation. For example, high-tech banks or software companies often have very little tangible assets in relation to their intellectual property and human capital (workforce). These intangible assets will not always be taken into account in the book value calculation.
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Personal capital financing
Platform: iOS, Android, AmazonCost: Free
Over 2.4 million people track their finances using personal capital, which includes more than 22,000 investment clients in all US states (as of December 2019). 1 Sync almost any investment account, including retirement and taxable accounts, then track Performance and customization, and graphics with easy-to-read graphs and charts. Track investments by account, asset class, or individual security. The You Index tracks your holdings and measures their performance against major market indices, so you can see your progress in stocks, cash, ETFs and mutual funds positions.
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The portfolio check feature determines whether you can save money on mutual fund fees, and the asset allocation review reveals diversification opportunities. Work with a personal wealth management advisor to discuss your investment needs via FaceTime, email or phone. Bank-wide app security uses a two-step remote authentication process.
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The main concerns
Mobile portfolio management apps can provide information on your investments from 401K (s) to IRAs.
Some wallet management apps can sync with your existing accounts, and most are free.
Some of the more popular apps include SigFig Wealth Management, Personal Capital, and Stocks Portfolio Manager.
SigFig Wealth Management
Platform: iOS, Android Cost: Free
Use the wealth management app of investment company SigFig to track all of your investment accounts for free. SigFig automatically pulls your investment accounts from more than 50 leading brokers into a single dashboard to provide you with a real-time view of every stock, mutual fund, ETF, and option you own. 2 In addition, it provides snapshots of the 401 (k)) plan. And IRAs. You'll get weekly email summaries of account performance, news affecting your portfolio, and alerts focused on the top gainers and losers.
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The app automatically analyzes your portfolio to find hidden charts and overexposures for a single stock / industry. For a fee, users can improve their returns through automated investing. SigFig will optimize your portfolio and provide daily monitoring to keep it on track through rebalancing, profit reinvestment and tax-efficient strategies.
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Tape: a stock portfolio manager
Platform: iOS, cost: free
Ticker lets you manage multiple equity portfolios - think growth, technology, and retirement portfolios - from one dashboard. Color charts, graphs, and detailed analyzes display real-time account values, daily profit / loss, daily profit / loss, customization, money weighted return rate (MWRR), time-weighted rate of return (TWRR), plus news related to symbols. Manually enter trading information for stocks and currency pairs such as EUR / USD, mutual funds and ETFs, including dividends, splits, buy / sell orders, indicator symbol, trading volume, price, date, and brokerage fees. Track stocks with multiple watchlists, and create alerts to notify you if a stock is trading above or below the stimulus level you selected, based on price, volume, and percentage of changes.
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Hey ho! Financial
Platform: iOS, Android Cost: Free
Hey ho! Finance has an easy-to-use design, so you can easily track your stocks, commodities, bonds, and currencies.4 Get personalized news and alerts and follow market movements in real time. Set watchlists and get live quotes while monitoring your portfolio performance.
Hey ho! Finance is one of the largest business news sites in the United States with data, comments, and press releases within its daily content. Of course, Yahoo! Finance app users also have quick access to this urgent information at a glance.
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Portfolio management apps easily track your investments from anywhere, anytime. Some apps sync with your existing accounts, while others require you to manually enter information about your assets. Either way, these apps provide the most up-to-date information - so you know where you stand now - as well as provide tools to help you get where you want to be in the future.
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The Framing Effect and Confirmation Bias
The framing effect describes our tendency to react to, judge, or interpret the exact same information in distinctly different ways depending on how it is presented to us, or “framed” (most commonly, whether the information is framed as a loss or as a gain). Building off of the previously discussed concepts of loss aversion and Prospect Theory, people tend to avoid risk when information is presented in a positive frame but seek risk when information is presented in a negative frame.
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The most commonly cited example of this is a 1981 Tversky and Kahneman study that asked participants to choose between two treatments, A and B, for 600 people affected by a deadly disease. Treatment A was predicted to result in a guaranteed total of 400 deaths, while treatment B had a 33% chance that no one would die but a 66% chance that everyone would die. The same two alternatives were then presented to the study's participants either under a positive frame (how many peoples' lives would be saved) or under a negative frame (how many people would die).
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When the alternatives were framed positively, 72% of participants chose Treatment A (“saves 200 lives”). When the exact same alternatives were framed negatively, however, only 22% of participants chose Treatment A (now presented as “400 people will die”). Saving 200 of the 600 lives is the exact same outcome as letting 400 of the 600 die, but the manner in which this identical treatment option was framed resulted in a massive decrease in the number of participants who chose it. Under the positive frame, the majority of participants avoided risk by choosing the treatment that resulted in a sure saving of 200 lives. Under the negative frame, however, the majority of participants sought the riskier alternative treatment that offered a 33% chance of saving all 600 lives.
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Another famous example that demonstrates the impact of framing is a study that found 93% of PhD students registered for classes early when a penalty fee for late registration was emphasized, but only 67% did so when the same number was presented as a discount for early registration.
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It is no secret that investors in the financial markets are under a constant barrage of information from all different sides - bullish, bearish, and everything in between. The exact same information can be framed by multiple sources in many different ways, biasing your interpretation of it. As you filter the stream of news and financial data that comes your way, consider the manner in which those numbers, statistics or reports are framed and think about the impact that their presentation has on the opinions they lead you to form.
Confirmation Bias and Forex Signals
Confirmation bias is the tendency to overweight, favor, seek out, exaggerate or more readily recall information or alternatives in a way that confirms our preconceived beliefs, hypotheses or desires, while simultaneously undervaluing, ignoring or otherwise giving disproportionately less consideration to information or alternatives that do not confirm our preconceived beliefs, hypotheses or desires. This inherent flaw in our cognitive reasoning leads to misconstrued interpretations of information, errors in judgment, and poor decision making. The effects of confirmation bias have been shown to be much stronger for emotionally-charged issues or beliefs that are deeply entrenched. In addition to overvaluing information that confirms our preexisting beliefs, confirmation bias also includes our tendency to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting existing positions, even if no true relationship exists. In short, this concept says that individuals are biased towards information that confirms their existing beliefs and biased against information that disproves their existing beliefs, leading to overconfidence in our opinions and our decisions even in the face of strong contrary evidence.
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As an investor in the financial markets, it can be difficult to maintain a separation between informed estimates or expectations and emotional judgments based on hopes or desires. By causing us to overweight information that confirms such hopes or desires, confirmation bias can affect our abilities to make sound assessments and form well-reasoned opinions about, for example, a stock's upside potential. Awareness of our natural biases towards confirming information and, perhaps more importantly, our biases against disproving information is the first step in combating the unwanted effects of confirmation bias.
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Hindsight Bias and the Availability Heuristic
Hindsight bias describes our inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, even if there had been little to no objective basis for predicting it. This is the psychological tendency that causes us, after witnessing or experiencing the outcome of even an entirely unforeseeable event, to exclaim “I knew it all along!”
The discovery of hindsight bias emerged during the early 1970s as the field of psychology witnessed an expansion of investigations into heuristics and biases, largely led by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. Along with the uncovering of tendencies such as the hindsight bias came the discovery of the availability heuristic, a common mental shortcut that causes individuals to rely on immediate information or examples that come to mind first when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision. According to the cognitive reasoning behind the availability heuristic, if something can be recalled, it must be important, or at least more so than alternatives that are not as readily recalled. As a result, individuals tend to more heavily weight recent or immediately-recalled information, creating a bias towards the latest news, events, experiences or memories.
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The Sunk Cost Fallacy
The sunk cost fallacy rests on the economic concept of a sunk cost: a cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered. While theoretical economics says that only future (prospective) costs are relevant to an investment decision and that rational economic actors therefore should not let sunk costs influence their decisions, the findings of psychological and behavioral finance research show that sunk costs do in fact affect real-world human decision making. Because of our tendencies towards Loss Aversion and other cognitive biases, we fall victim to the sunk cost fallacy, which describes our irrational belief that sunk costs should be considered a legitimate factor in our forward decision making when, in fact, their consideration often leads us towards inefficient outcomes.
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For example, let's say a gentleman named Fred is concerned about his weight and decides to go on a diet. As part of his cleanse, he empties his fridge of all tasty temptations. When he comes across an unopened tub of ice cream, however, he falls victim to the Sunk Cost Fallacy. Even though the $15.00 Fred spent on the ice cream is a sunk cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered, Fred convinces himself that he cannot let the ice cream go to waste because he previously spent his hard-earned dollars to buy it. Eating a full tub of ice cream is in no way in line with his current weight-loss objectives, as the calories he will take in by consuming it are many times the daily total target of his new diet. Still, despite the adverse consequences for his health goals, Fred is swayed into eating the ice cream because of the Sunk Cost Fallacy.
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In an investment setting, the consequences of the sunk cost fallacy can be much more severe than some unwanted calories. As the share price of a security falls, investors often begin to employ the logic that “I've already lost $XXX, it's too late to sell now.” As prices keep falling further and losses grow, the investor's commitment to the sunk cost continues to escalate. “Now I’ve lost $XXXXX, there's no way I can sell now. It has to come back eventually. I'll just hold on to it.” Improper or irrational considerations of sunk costs can lead to poor decisions that continue to spiral out of control, simply because of an incorrect perception of an expense that is irrecoverable.
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The Gambler's Fallacy
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy, is the mistaken tendency to believe that, if something happens more frequently than “normal” during a period of time, it must happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than “normal” during a period of time, it must happen more frequently in the future. This tendency presumably arises out of an ingrained human desire for nature to be constantly balanced or averaged. In situations where the event being observed or measured is truly random (such as the flip of a coin), this belief, although appealing to the human mind, is false.
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The gambler's fallacy is, rather obviously, most strongly associated with gambling, where such errors in judgment and decision making are common. It can, however, arise in many practical situations, including investing. Winning and losing trades are in many ways similar to the flip of a coin and thus subject to the same psychological biases. If an investor has a series of losing trades, for example, he or she can begin to erroneously believe that, since the statistics feel unbalanced, his or her probability of making a profitable trade increases. In reality, the probability of his or her next trade being profitable is unaffected by previous losses.
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Asset Allocation and Diversification
The term "asset allocation" is often used to describe a money management strategy that defines how capital is distributed within an investment portfolio and Forex Signals . This usually includes specifying the amount of the portfolio that should be distributed to different asset classes, or broad types of investments such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash. The goal of asset allocation is to improve the mix of investments in different asset classes in order to maximize the return on the investment portfolio while minimizing potential risks, based on the investor’s time frame, risk tolerance, and long-term investment goals. There is evidence to suggest that certain classes of assets work better or worse depending on economic conditions, market forces, government policy, and political influence. The goal of an asset allocation strategy is to define these terms and allocate resources appropriately.
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The concept that is closely related to asset allocation is "diversification", and in practice these terms are often used interchangeably. However, asset allocation is primarily concerned with capital allocation in different asset classes. For example, a typical asset allocation strategy might dictate that your portfolio must invest 50% in stocks, 30% invest in bonds, 10% in commodities, and 10% in cash. Diversification is usually associated with capital allocation within these asset classes. For example, within allocating shares to the same portfolio, investments can be allocated to 50% of shares of large companies, 20% of shares of medium-sized companies, 10% of shares of small companies, 10% of international shares, and 10% of market shares Emerging. The concept of diversification involves the allocation of assets within individual asset classes - while risks are distributed among asset classes in the overall portfolio, diversification reduces the risk within each asset class.
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Asset distribution date
Using asset allocation strategies as a form of risk management is not a new concept. The idea of "not to put all your eggs in one basket" is something we learned when we were young and lived in for thousands of years. However, the term asset allocation was not present in the investment community until recently. Even before the emergence of modern financial markets, people understood that one's assets must be divided between different categories such as land, business ownership, and (cash) reserves. Until the mid-twentieth century, this concept of asset allocation as a fact of life remained relatively unchanged.
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So what has changed to create the asset allocation models that we know today? In 1952, an American economist named Harry Markowitz wrote a paper in the finance magazine called "Portfolio Selection," in which he developed the first mathematical model that emphasizes volatility in the portfolio by combining investments and different yield patterns. This paper was the basis for what would have become a standard in portfolio management known as "modern portfolio theory".
Before Markowitz contributed to asset allocation to equity portfolios, diversification was a process that focused on the yield and risk characteristics of individual securities regardless of how the returns relate to each other. After Markowitz invented his mathematical models for wallet construction, his ideas soon became accepted in academia. A large number of research papers have been published to verify the benefits of asset allocation and have quickly become popular with financial professionals as well.
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In 1974, the Employees Retirement Income Guarantee Act (ERISA) was enacted as a federal law setting minimum standards for investment allocations in pension plans. After ERISA became law, asset allocation and modern portfolio theory became standard practices for portfolio managers required to comply with the law when allocating invested capital in pension plans.
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Modern Portfolio Theory and Concepts (MPT)
The modern portfolio theory (MPT) has greatly influenced the way investment portfolio managers create portfolios. The concept of MPT is fairly straightforward. However, it requires the investor to make several assumptions about the financial markets; In addition, the mathematical equations used to calculate correlation and risk can be somewhat complicated.
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The basic premise of MPT is simple: by bringing together securities of different asset classes that are not closely related, one can reduce portfolio volatility and increase risk-adjusted performance. In other words, a combination of unrelated assets will lead to the most efficient portfolio - the portfolio that yields the greatest return for a given amount of risk.
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Returns of assets do not have to be passively or even disconnected to provide diversification benefits, as they cannot be fully correlated. For example, in the chart below, international stocks (as represented by the EAFE index) are compared to US domestic shares (as represented by the S&P 500). Using the correlation coefficient, you can see that the relationship is positive for most of the five-year period. However, it is not completely correlated (i.e. a correlation coefficient of 1.0).
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There are periods of low to negative correlation received during this time period. By investing in both US domestic stocks and international stocks, general volatility can be reduced as the correlation varies enough between the two asset classes to provide meaningful diversification. The MPT concept demonstrates that adding a volatile asset to a portfolio can reduce overall volatility if returns have differences in correlation. This is an intriguing concept - portfolio volatility can generally be minimized by bringing together asset classes together which, in themselves, have returns with higher volatility.
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The assumption is that by combining asset classes that are not fully correlated when one asset’s value declines, the value of another asset in the portfolio increases over the same time period. So even if all asset classes themselves are very volatile, when combined into one portfolio, volatility is reduced.
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The extreme example of negative correlation is shown in the following chart of the US dollar compared to the price of gold over the past five years. If the investor had invested in these two volatile assets together, the overall volatility of the portfolio would have decreased significantly due to the negative correlation.
As mentioned earlier, the MPT requires that the investor make some assumptions about financial markets in order to calculate the potential benefits of the theory. The main assumptions are that ...
Financial markets are efficient.
Market returns are distributed randomly.
Investors are rational.
These assumptions are necessary to accurately calculate standard deviation and correlation using the normal distribution or bell curve.
By using the normal distribution function (which determines risk as the standard deviation of return), the risk and the correlation can be calculated mathematically for individual assets as well as portfolios. However, if the markets are in fact not fully effective, the returns to the assets do not necessarily follow the normal distribution and the correlation accounts and risks used in the MPT may be flawed. With the extreme market volatility seen during the dot com bubble in the early 2000s and the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the assumptions used in the MPT have been largely examined.
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GBP USD
SELL from 1.2460
Take profit 1.2300
Stop loss 1.2540
type order Market Execution is entering this trade at any price from 1.2460
technical analysis and forex signals for GBP USD
waves in the same direction will tend toward equality SO GBPUSD WILL resume bearish wave to level 1.2130
Riding Wave C in a Zigzag
Trend continues till gives a reversal signal
on hourly chart the Last wave determine the end of the pattern and Consists of zigzag that generate sell GBPUSD forex signals
reversal candlestick pattern on daily chart is shooting star
The price behavior is the result of Environmental pattern
Current surrounding Repetitive pattern is zigzag Wave C = 1.618 Wave A
History Repeats Itself that the future is just a repetition of the past
The bearish movement from level 1.3510 to level 1.1410 appeared before on price chart at 19-6-2015 and followed with bullish movement equal the current bullish movement from level 1.2240 to 1.2520 that give forex trading signals to sell GBP USD and according to this movement GBP USD will decline to 1.0580
Also The bearish movement from level 1.2650 to level 1.2240 appeared before on price chart at 9-7-2018 and followed with bullish movement equal the current bullish movement from level 1.1410 to 1.2650 that give forex trading signals to sell GBP USD so the gbp usd will decline near to level 1.1970
surrounding Repetitive pattern before this movement expanded flat Wave C = 1.618 Wave A
We expect price will repeat the same movement again and gbp usd price will go down toward 1.1970
Maybe the correction equal only one wave of previous correction
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Historical and Mathematical Background of the Wave Principle
The Fibonacci (pronounced fib-eh-nah´-chee) sequence of numbers was discovered (actually rediscovered) by Leonardo Fibonacci da Pisa, a thirteenth century mathematician. We will outline the historical background of this amazing man and then discuss more fully the sequence (technically it is a sequence and not a series) of numbers that bears his name. When Elliott wrote Nature’s Law, he explained that the Fibonacci sequence provides the mathematical basis of the Wave Principle. (For a further discussion of the mathematics behind the Wave Principle, see "Mathematical Basis of Wave Theory," by Walter E. White, in a forthcoming book from New Classics Library.)
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Leonardo Fibonacci da Pisa
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The Dark Ages were a period of almost total cultural eclipse in Europe. They lasted from the fall of Rome in 476 A.D. until around 1000 A.D. During this period, mathematics and philosophy waned in Europe but flowered in India and Arabia since the Dark Ages did not extend to the East. As Europe gradually began to emerge from its stagnant state, the Mediterranean Sea developed into a river of culture that directed the flow of commerce, mathematics and new ideas from India and Arabia.
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During the Middle Ages, Pisa became a strongly walled city-state and a flourishing commercial center whose waterfront reflected the Commercial Revolution of that day. Leather, furs, cotton, wool, iron, copper, tin and spices were traded within the walls of Pisa, with gold serving as an important currency. The port was filled with ships ranging up to four hundred tons and eighty feet in length. The Pisan economy supported leather and shipbuilding industries and an iron works. Pisan politics were well constructed even according to today’s standards. The Chief Magistrate of the Republic, for instance, was not paid for his services until after his term of office had expired, at which time his administration could be investigated to determine if he had earned his salary. In fact, our man Fibonacci was one of the examiners.
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Born between 1170 and 1180, Leonardo Fibonacci, the son of a prominent merchant and city official, probably lived in one of Pisa’s many towers. A tower served as a workshop, fortress and family residence and was constructed so that arrows could be shot from the narrow windows and boiling tar poured on strangers who approached with aggressive intent. During Fibonacci’s lifetime, the bell tower known as the Leaning Tower of Pisa was under construction. It was the last of the three great edifices to be built in Pisa, as the cathedral and the baptistery had been completed some years earlier.
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As a schoolboy, Leonardo became familiar with customs houses and commercial practices of the day, including the operation of the abacus, which was widely used in Europe as a calculator for business purposes. Although his native tongue was Italian, he learned several other languages, including French, Greek and even Latin, in which he was fluent.
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Soon after Leonardo’s father was appointed a customs official at Bogia in North Africa, he instructed Leonardo to join him in order to complete his education. Leonardo began making many business trips around the Mediterranean. After one of his trips to Egypt, he published his famous Liber Abaci (Book of Calculation) which introduced to Europe one of the greatest mathematical discoveries of all time, namely the decimal system, including the positioning of zero as the first digit in the notation of the number scale. This system, which included the familiar symbols 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, became known as the Hindu-Arabic system, which is now universally used.
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Under a true digital or place-value system, the actual value represented by any symbol placed in a row along with other symbols depends not only on its basic numerical value but also on its position in the row, i.e., 58 has a different value from 85. Though thousands of years earlier the Babylonians and Mayas of Central America separately had developed digital or place-value systems of numeration, their methods were awkward in other respects. For this reason, the Babylonian system, which was the first to use zero and place values, was never carried forward into the mathematical systems of Greece, or even Rome, whose numeration comprised the seven symbols I, V, X, L, C, D, and M, with non-digital values assigned to those symbols. Addition, subtraction, multiplication and division in a system using these non-digital symbols is not an easy task, especially when large numbers are involved. Paradoxically, to overcome this problem, the Romans used the very ancient digital device known as the abacus. Because this instrument is digitally based and contains the zero principle, it functioned as a necessary supplement to the Roman computational system. Throughout the ages, bookkeepers and merchants depended on it to assist them in the mechanics of their tasks. Fibonacci, after expressing the basic principle of the abacus in Liber Abaci, started to use his new system during his travels.
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Through his efforts, the new system, with its easy method of calculation, was eventually transmitted to Europe. Gradually Roman numerals were replaced by the Arabic numeral system. The introduction of the new system to Europe was the first important achievement in the field of mathematics since the fall of Rome over seven hundred years before. Fibonacci not only kept mathematics alive during the Middle Ages, but laid the foundation for great developments in the field of higher mathematics and the related fields of physics, astronomy and engineering.
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Although the world later almost lost sight of Fibonacci, he was unquestionably a man of his time. His fame was such that Frederick II, a scientist and scholar in his own right, sought him out by arranging a visit to Pisa. Frederick II was Emperor of the Holy Roman Empire, the King of Sicily and Jerusalem, scion of two of the noblest families in Europe and Sicily, and the most powerful prince of his day. His ideas were those of an absolute monarch, and he surrounded himself with all the pomp of a Roman emperor.
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The meeting between Fibonacci and Frederick II took place in 1225 A.D. and was an event of great importance to the town of Pisa. The Emperor rode at the head of a long procession of trumpeters, courtiers, knights, officials and a menagerie of animals. Some of the problems the Emperor placed before the famous mathematician are detailed in Liber Abaci. Fibonacci apparently solved the problems posed by the Emperor and forever more was welcome at the king’s court. When Fibonacci revised Liber Abaci in 1228 A.D., he dedicated the revised edition to Frederick II.
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It is almost an understatement to say that Leonardo Fibonacci was the greatest mathematician of the Middle Ages. In all, he wrote three major mathematical works: the Liber Abaci, published in 1202 and revised in 1228, Practica Geometriae, published in 1220, and Liber Quadratorum. The admiring citizens of Pisa documented in 1240 A.D. that he was "a discreet and learned man," and very recently Joseph Gies, a senior editor of the Encyclopedia Britannica, stated that future scholars will in time "give Leonard of Pisa his due as one of the world’s great intellectual pioneers." His works, after all these years, are only now being translated from Latin into English. For those interested, the book entitled Leonard of Pisa and the New Mathematics of the Middle Ages, by Joseph and Frances Gies, is an excellent treatise on the age of Fibonacci and his works.
Although he was the greatest mathematician of medieval times, Fibonacci’s only monuments are a statue across the Arno River from the Leaning Tower and two streets that bear his name, one in Pisa and the other in Florence. It seems strange that so few visitors to the 179-foot marble Tower of Pisa have ever heard of Fibonacci or seen his statue. Fibonacci was a contemporary of Bonanna, the architect of the Tower, who started building in 1174 A.D. Both men made contributions to the world, but the one whose influence far exceeds the other’s is almost unknown.
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Wave Personality
The idea of wave personality is a substantial expansion of the Wave Principle. It has the advantage of bringing human behavior more personally into the equation.
free forex signals and The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral part of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure. As the Wave Principle indicates, market history repeats but not exactly. Every wave has siblings (same-directional waves of the same degree within a larger wave) and cousins (samedegree and same-numbered waves within different larger waves) but no wave has a twin. Related waves — particularly cousins — have similar market and social characteristics. The personality of each wave type is manifest whether the wave is of Grand Supercycle degree or Subminuette. Waves’ properties not only forewarn what to expect in the next sequence but at times can help determine the market’s present location in the progression of waves, when for other reasons the count is unclear or open to differing interpretations. As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that a knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable. Recognizing the character of a single wave can often allow you to interpret correctly the complexities of the larger pattern. The following discussions relate to an underlying bull market picture, as illustrated in Figures 2-14 and 2-15. These observations apply in reverse when the actionary waves are downward and the reactionary waves are upward.
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1) First waves — As a rough estimate, about half of first waves are part of the "basing" process and thus tend to be heavily corrected by wave two. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in
Figure 2-14
volume and breadth. Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is down. Investors have finally gotten "one more rally to sell on," and they take advantage of it. The other fifty percent of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the previous correction, as in 1949, from downside failures, as in 1962, or from extreme compression, as in both 1962 and 1974. From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only moderately retraced.
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2) Second waves — Second waves often retrace so much of wave one that most of the profits gained up to that time are eroded away by the time it ends. This is especially true of call option purchases, as premiums sink drastically in the environment of 79 fear during second waves. At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the bear market is back to stay. Second waves often end on very low volume and volatility, indicating a drying up of selling pressure.
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3) Third waves — Third waves are wonders to behold. They are strong and broad, and the trend at this point is unmistakable. Increasingly favorable fundamentals enter the picture as confidence returns. Third waves usually generate the greatest volume and price movement and are most often the extended wave in a series. It follows, of course, that the third wave of a third wave, and so on, will be the most volatile point of strength in any wave sequence. Such points invariably produce breakouts, "continuation" gaps, volume expansions, exceptional breadth, major Dow Theory trend confirmations and runaway price movement, creating large hourly, daily, weekly, monthly or yearly gains in the market, depending on the degree of the wave. Virtually all stocks participate in third waves. Besides the personality of B waves, that of third waves produces the most valuable clues to the wave count as it unfolds.
4) Fourth waves — Fourth waves are predictable in both depth (see page 66) and form, because by alternation they should differ from the previous second wave of the same degree. More often than not they trend sideways, building the base for the final fifth wave move. Lagging stocks build their tops and begin declining during this wave, since only the strength of a third wave was able to generate any motion in them in the first place. This initial deterioration in the market sets the stage for non-confirmations and subtle signs of weakness during the fifth wave.
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5) Fifth waves — Fifth waves in stocks are always less dynamic than third waves in terms of breadth. They usually display a slower maximum speed of price change as well, although if a fifth wave is an extension, speed of price change in the third of the fifth can exceed that of the third wave. Similarly, while it is common for volume to increase through successive impulse waves at Cycle degree or larger, it usually happens in a fifth wave below Primary degree only if the fifth wave extends. Otherwise, look for lesser volume as a rule in a fifth wave as opposed to the third. Market dabblers sometimes call for "blowoffs" at the end of long trends, but the stock market has no history of reaching maximum acceleration at a peak. Even if a fifth wave extends, the fifth of the fifth will lack the dynamism that preceded it. During advancing fifth waves, optimism runs extremely high despite a narrowing of breadth. Nevertheless, market action does improve relative to prior corrective wave rallies. For example, the year-end rally in 1976 was unexciting in the Dow, but it was nevertheless a motive wave as opposed to the preceding corrective wave advances in April, July and September, which, by contrast, had even less influence on the secondary indexes and the cumulative advance-decline line. As a monument to the optimism that fifth waves can produce, the advisory services polled two weeks after the conclusion of that rally turned in the lowest percentage of "bears," 4.5%, in the history of the recorded figures despite that fifth wave’s failure to make a new high!
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6) A waves — During the A wave of a bear market, the investment world is generally convinced that this reaction is just a pullback pursuant to the next leg of advance. The public surges to the buy side despite the first really technically damaging cracks in individual stock patterns. The A wave sets the tone for the B wave to follow. A five-wave A indicates a zigzag for wave B, while a three-wave A indicates a flat or triangle.
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7) B waves — B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators’ paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often "unconfirmed" (see Dow Theory discussion in Chapter 7) by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, "There is something wrong with this market," chances are it’s a B wave. X waves and D waves in expanding triangles, both of which are corrective wave advances, have the same characteristics. Several examples will suffice to illustrate the point.
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Elliott Wave and Diagonal
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A diagonal is a motive pattern yet not an impulse, as it has two corrective characteristics. As with an impulse, no reactionary subwave fully retraces the preceding actionary subwave, and the third subwave is never the shortest. However, a diagonal is the only five-wave structure in the direction of the main trend within which wave four almost always moves into the price territory of (i.e., overlaps) wave one and within which all the waves are "threes," producing an overall count of 3-3-3-3-3. On rare occasions, a diagonal may end in a truncation, although in our experience such truncations occur only by the slimmest of margins. This pattern substitutes for an impulse at two specific locations in the wave structure.
Ending Diagonal
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An ending diagonal occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone "too far too fast," as Elliott put it. A very small percentage of diagonals appear in the C-wave position of A-B-C formations. In double or triple threes (see next section), they appear only as the final C wave. In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement.
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A contracting diagonal takes a wedge shape within two converging lines. This most common form for an ending diagonal is illustrated in Figures 1-15 and 1-16 and shown in its typical position within a larger impulse wave.
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We have found one case in which an ending diagonal’s boundary lines diverged, creating an expanding diagonal rather than a contracting one. However, it is unsatisfying analytically in that its third wave was the shortest actionary wave.
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Ending diagonals have occurred recently in Minor degree as in early 1978, in Minute degree as in February-March 1976, and in Subminuette degree as in June 1976. Figures 1-17 and 1-18 show two of these periods, illustrating one upward and one downward "real life" formation. Figure 1-19 shows our real-life possible expanding diagonal. Notice that in each case, an important change of direction followed.
Although not so illustrated in Figures 1-15 and 1-16, the fifth wave of an ending diagonal often ends in a "throw-over," i.e., a brief break of the trendline connecting the end points of waves one and three. The real-life examples in Figures 1-17 and 1-19 show throw-overs. While volume tends to diminish as a diagonal of small degree progresses, the pattern always ends with a spike of relatively high volume when a throw-over occurs. On rare occasions, the fifth subwave falls short of its resistance trendline.
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A rising ending diagonal is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where it began and typically much further. A falling ending diagonal by the same token usually gives rise to an upward thrust.
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Fifth wave extensions, truncated fifths and ending diagonals all imply the same thing: dramatic reversal ahead. At some turning points, two of these phenomena have occurred together at different degrees, compounding the violence of the next move in the opposite direction.
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Leading Diagonal
It has recently come to light that a diagonal occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. In the few examples we have, the subdivisions appear to be the same: 3-3-3-3-3, although in two cases, they can be labeled 5-3-5-3-5, so the jury is out on a strict definition. Analysts must be aware of this pattern to avoid mistaking it for a far more common development, a series of first and second waves, as illustrated in Figure 1-8. A leading diagonal in the wave one position is typically followed by a deep retracement
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Figure 1-20 shows a real-life leading diagonal. We have recently observed that a leading diagonal can also take an expanding shape. This form appears to occur primarily at the start of declines in the stock market (see Figure 1-21). These patterns were not originally discovered by R.N. Elliott but have appeared enough times and over a long enough period that the authors are convinced of their validity.
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Corrective Waves
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Markets move against the trend of one greater degree only with a seeming struggle. Resistance from the larger trend appears to prevent a correction from developing a full motive structure. This struggle between the two oppositely-trending degrees generally makes corrective waves less clearly identifiable than motive waves, which always flow with comparative ease in the direction of the one larger trend. As another result of this conflict between trends, corrective waves are quite a bit more varied than motive waves. Further, they occasionally increase or decrease in complexity as they unfold so that what are technically subwaves of the same degree can by their complexity or time length appear to be of different degree (see Figures 2-4 and 2-5). For all these reasons, it can be difficult at times to fit corrective waves into recognizable patterns until they are completed and behind us. As the terminations of corrective waves are less predictable than those for motive waves, you must exercise more patience and flexibility in your analysis when the market is in a meandering corrective mood than when prices are in a persistent motive trend.
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The single most important rule that can be gleaned from a study of the various corrective patterns is that corrections are never fives. Only motive waves are fives. For this reason, an initial five-wave movement against the larger trend is never the end of a correction, only part of it. The figures in this section should serve to illustrate this point.
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Corrective processes come in two styles. Sharp corrections angle steeply against the larger trend. Sideways corrections, while always producing a net retracement of the preceding wave, typically contain a movement that carries back to or beyond its starting level, thus producing an overall sideways appearance. The discussion of the guideline of alternation in Chapter 2 explains the reason for noting these two styles.
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Specific corrective patterns fall into three main categories: Zigzag (5-3-5; includes three types: single, double and triple);
Flat (3-3-5; includes three types: regular, expanded and running);
Triangle (3-3-3-3-3; three types: contracting, barrier and expanding; and one variation: running).
A combination of the above forms comes in two types: double three and triple three.
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Elliott Wave and Diagonal
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A diagonal is a motive pattern yet not an impulse, as it has two corrective characteristics. As with an impulse, no reactionary subwave fully retraces the preceding actionary subwave, and the third subwave is never the shortest. However, a diagonal is the only five-wave structure in the direction of the main trend within which wave four almost always moves into the price territory of (i.e., overlaps) wave one and within which all the waves are "threes," producing an overall count of 3-3-3-3-3. On rare occasions, a diagonal may end in a truncation, although in our experience such truncations occur only by the slimmest of margins. This pattern substitutes for an impulse at two specific locations in the wave structure.
Ending Diagonal
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An ending diagonal occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone "too far too fast," as Elliott put it. A very small percentage of diagonals appear in the C-wave position of A-B-C formations. In double or triple threes (see next section), they appear only as the final C wave. In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement.
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A contracting diagonal takes a wedge shape within two converging lines. This most common form for an ending diagonal is illustrated in Figures 1-15 and 1-16 and shown in its typical position within a larger impulse wave.
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We have found one case in which an ending diagonal’s boundary lines diverged, creating an expanding diagonal rather than a contracting one. However, it is unsatisfying analytically in that its third wave was the shortest actionary wave.
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Ending diagonals have occurred recently in Minor degree as in early 1978, in Minute degree as in February-March 1976, and in Subminuette degree as in June 1976. Figures 1-17 and 1-18 show two of these periods, illustrating one upward and one downward "real life" formation. Figure 1-19 shows our real-life possible expanding diagonal. Notice that in each case, an important change of direction followed.
Although not so illustrated in Figures 1-15 and 1-16, the fifth wave of an ending diagonal often ends in a "throw-over," i.e., a brief break of the trendline connecting the end points of waves one and three. The real-life examples in Figures 1-17 and 1-19 show throw-overs. While volume tends to diminish as a diagonal of small degree progresses, the pattern always ends with a spike of relatively high volume when a throw-over occurs. On rare occasions, the fifth subwave falls short of its resistance trendline.
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A rising ending diagonal is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where it began and typically much further. A falling ending diagonal by the same token usually gives rise to an upward thrust.
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Fifth wave extensions, truncated fifths and ending diagonals all imply the same thing: dramatic reversal ahead. At some turning points, two of these phenomena have occurred together at different degrees, compounding the violence of the next move in the opposite direction.
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Leading Diagonal
It has recently come to light that a diagonal occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. In the few examples we have, the subdivisions appear to be the same: 3-3-3-3-3, although in two cases, they can be labeled 5-3-5-3-5, so the jury is out on a strict definition. Analysts must be aware of this pattern to avoid mistaking it for a far more common development, a series of first and second waves, as illustrated in Figure 1-8. A leading diagonal in the wave one position is typically followed by a deep retracement
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Figure 1-20 shows a real-life leading diagonal. We have recently observed that a leading diagonal can also take an expanding shape. This form appears to occur primarily at the start of declines in the stock market (see Figure 1-21). These patterns were not originally discovered by R.N. Elliott but have appeared enough times and over a long enough period that the authors are convinced of their validity.
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Corrective Waves
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Markets move against the trend of one greater degree only with a seeming struggle. Resistance from the larger trend appears to prevent a correction from developing a full motive structure. This struggle between the two oppositely-trending degrees generally makes corrective waves less clearly identifiable than motive waves, which always flow with comparative ease in the direction of the one larger trend. As another result of this conflict between trends, corrective waves are quite a bit more varied than motive waves. Further, they occasionally increase or decrease in complexity as they unfold so that what are technically subwaves of the same degree can by their complexity or time length appear to be of different degree (see Figures 2-4 and 2-5). For all these reasons, it can be difficult at times to fit corrective waves into recognizable patterns until they are completed and behind us. As the terminations of corrective waves are less predictable than those for motive waves, you must exercise more patience and flexibility in your analysis when the market is in a meandering corrective mood than when prices are in a persistent motive trend.
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The single most important rule that can be gleaned from a study of the various corrective patterns is that corrections are never fives. Only motive waves are fives. For this reason, an initial five-wave movement against the larger trend is never the end of a correction, only part of it. The figures in this section should serve to illustrate this point.
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Corrective processes come in two styles. Sharp corrections angle steeply against the larger trend. Sideways corrections, while always producing a net retracement of the preceding wave, typically contain a movement that carries back to or beyond its starting level, thus producing an overall sideways appearance. The discussion of the guideline of alternation in Chapter 2 explains the reason for noting these two styles.
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Specific corrective patterns fall into three main categories: Zigzag (5-3-5; includes three types: single, double and triple);
Flat (3-3-5; includes three types: regular, expanded and running);
Triangle (3-3-3-3-3; three types: contracting, barrier and expanding; and one variation: running).
A combination of the above forms comes in two types: double three and triple three.
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Elliott Wave Principle and Basic Tenets
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The Wave Principle is governed by man’s social nature, and since he has such a nature, its expression generates forms. As the forms are repetitive, they have predictive value.
Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the external causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. The path of prices is not a product of news. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Its movement reflects a repetition of forms that is independent both of presumed causal events and of periodicity.
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The market’s progression unfolds in waves. Waves are patterns of directional movement. More specifically, a wave is any one of the patterns that naturally occur, as described in the rest of this chapter.
The Five Wave Pattern
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In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure. Three of these waves, which are labeled 1, 3 and 5, actually effect the directional movement. They are separated by two countertrend interruptions, which are labeled 2 and 4, as shown in Figure 1-1. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur.
Elliott noted three consistent aspects of the five-wave form. They are: Wave 2 never moves beyond the start of wave 1; wave 3 is never the shortest wave; wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1.
R.N. Elliott did not specifically say that there is only one overriding form, the “five-wave” pattern, but that is undeniably the case. At any time, the market may be identified as being somewhere in the basic five-wave pattern at the largest degree of trend. Because the five-wave pattern is the overriding form of market progress, all other patterns are subsumed by it.
1.3 Wave Mode
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There are two modes of wave development: motive and corrective. Motive waves have a five-wave structure, while corrective waves have a three-wave structure or a variation thereof. Motive mode is employed by both the five-wave pattern of Figure 1-1 and its same-directional components, i.e., waves 1, 3 and 5. Their structures are called “motive” because they powerfully impel the market. Corrective mode is employed by all countertrend interruptions, which include waves 2 and 4 in Figure 1-1. Their structures are called “corrective” because each one appears as a response to the preceding motive wave yet accomplishes only a partial retracement, or “correction,” of the progress it achieved. Thus, the two modes are fundamentally different, both in their roles and in their construction, as will be detailed throughout this chapter.
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Figure 1-1
The Complete Cycle
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One complete cycle consisting of eight waves, then, is made up of two distinct phases, the five-wave motive phase (also called a “five”), whose subwaves are denoted by numbers, and the threewave corrective phase (also called a “three”), whose subwaves are denoted by letters. Just as wave 2 corrects wave 1 in Figure 1-1, the sequence A, B, C corrects the sequence 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 in Figure 1-2.
Figure 1-2
Compound Construction
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When an initial eight-wave cycle such as shown in Figure 1-2 ends, a similar cycle ensues, which is then followed by another five-wave movement. This entire development produces a fivewave pattern of one degree (i.e., relative size) larger than the waves of which it is composed. The result is shown in Figure 1-3 up to the peak labeled (5). This five-wave pattern of larger degree is then corrected by a three-wave pattern of the same degree, completing a larger full cycle, depicted as Figure 1-3.
As Figure 1-3 illustrates, each same-direction component of a motive wave (i.e., wave 1, 3 and 5), and each full-cycle component (i.e., waves 1 + 2, or waves 3 + 4)of a cycle, is a smaller version of itself.
It is neccessary to understand a crucial point: Figure 1-3 not only illustrates a larger version of Figure 1-2, it also illustrates Figure 1-2 itself, in greater detail. In Figure 1-2, each subwave 1, 3 and 5 is a motive wave that must subdivide into a "five," and each subwave 2 and 4 is a corrective wave that must subdivide into a "three." Waves (1) and (2) in Figure 1-3, if examined under a "microscope," would take the same form as waves ? and ?. Regardless of degree, the form is constant. We can use Figure 1-3 to illustrate two waves, eight waves or thirty-four waves, depending upon the degree to which we are referring.
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Figure 1-3
Common trading mistakes: part two
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Overreliance on software
Most people use some form of technology to assist their trading.
For example, you might study chart patterns or use automated alerts and algorithms as prompts to trade.
But, as useful as all of these tools are, it is important to remember that they are only tools, and must be employed wisely.
Just as your satnav can occasionally direct you to drive into a deep torrent of water because it doesn't know the river has flooded, trading technology isn't something to follow blindly. You still need to keep your eyes open and react intelligently to the signs you see.
Car
So when using technology, such as charting software or other analysis tools, it's important that you understand the underlying concepts and the reasons behind what the charts are telling you. This will allow you to see the bigger picture and avoid unnecessary mistakes.
Lack of record keeping
Do you remember your first trade? What about the third, or the fifth?
If you're new to trading, the details may still be clear in your memory. But in a few months' time will you still be able to describe each step and decision in detail?
Unless you keep a trading log or diary, the chances are that this information will be lost. And if you can't remember what you did right, how can you replicate it? Similarly, if you don't know where you went wrong you could easily make the same mistakes again.
Your trading diary will let you look back at your experiences with the value of hindsight and learn from them. So what should you record in it?
Question
Which of the following is NOT worth putting in your trading diary?
A
Why you decided to trade
B
What you were wearing at the time
C
Where you placed your stops or limits
D
How you felt at the time you opened and closed the trade
Reveal answer
Bad timing
Timing is not only the art of good comedy - it's also central to good trading.
In the same way that a stand-up artist needs to deliver the punchline at exactly the right moment, you need to time your entry and exit from a market perfectly to maximise any profit or minimise any loss.
Timing mistakes are common among new traders. So how can you avoid them? Although getting your timing right isn't an exact science, there are a few tools that will help you to act at the right moment:
Chart analysis will help you forecast potential scenarios by revealing market patterns
A trading plan will help you to define your strategy, meaning you're more likely to avoid impulsive actions
Stops and limits will allow you to go about your business without having to monitor the markets constantly
summary
Remember the limitations of software and use it intelligently
Keep a trading diary and reflect on the strategies that have worked well (or not so well)
Use tools such as charts, stops and limits to help you get your timing right when opening and closing positions
Common trading mistakes: part two
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Overreliance on software
Most people use some form of technology to assist their trading.
For example, you might study chart patterns or use automated alerts and algorithms as prompts to trade.
But, as useful as all of these tools are, it is important to remember that they are only tools, and must be employed wisely.
Just as your satnav can occasionally direct you to drive into a deep torrent of water because it doesn't know the river has flooded, trading technology isn't something to follow blindly. You still need to keep your eyes open and react intelligently to the signs you see.
Car
So when using technology, such as charting software or other analysis tools, it's important that you understand the underlying concepts and the reasons behind what the charts are telling you. This will allow you to see the bigger picture and avoid unnecessary mistakes.
Lack of record keeping
Do you remember your first trade? What about the third, or the fifth?
If you're new to trading, the details may still be clear in your memory. But in a few months' time will you still be able to describe each step and decision in detail?
Unless you keep a trading log or diary, the chances are that this information will be lost. And if you can't remember what you did right, how can you replicate it? Similarly, if you don't know where you went wrong you could easily make the same mistakes again.
Your trading diary will let you look back at your experiences with the value of hindsight and learn from them. So what should you record in it?
Question
Which of the following is NOT worth putting in your trading diary?
A
Why you decided to trade
B
What you were wearing at the time
C
Where you placed your stops or limits
D
How you felt at the time you opened and closed the trade
Reveal answer
Bad timing
Timing is not only the art of good comedy - it's also central to good trading.
In the same way that a stand-up artist needs to deliver the punchline at exactly the right moment, you need to time your entry and exit from a market perfectly to maximise any profit or minimise any loss.
Timing mistakes are common among new traders. So how can you avoid them? Although getting your timing right isn't an exact science, there are a few tools that will help you to act at the right moment:
Chart analysis will help you forecast potential scenarios by revealing market patterns
A trading plan will help you to define your strategy, meaning you're more likely to avoid impulsive actions
Stops and limits will allow you to go about your business without having to monitor the markets constantly
summary
Remember the limitations of software and use it intelligently
Keep a trading diary and reflect on the strategies that have worked well (or not so well)
Use tools such as charts, stops and limits to help you get your timing right when opening and closing positions
blackjack.fun
The Bitcoin (((casino)))?
Blackjack.Fun is a (((casino))) site which is launched in 2018. Where you can play the game with BTC, DASH, LTC. The results are probably fair. you can edit client seed to be more fair and more fun in your bets .
???? Blackjack fun !! The probably fair (((casino))) !! ????
??????? ? http://blackjack.fun/ ? ????????
Frequently Asked Questions About Blackjack.fun
1. How much is the minimum deposit?
There is no minimum or maximum deposit
2. How much is the Withdrawal fee?
There is no withdrawal fee. Only cryptocurrency transaction fee what depends on different cryptocurrencies
3. Dominans of chips?
You can change the domination of chips from Menu - Settings
4. How fast the withdrawal?
Blackjack.fun has Instant Withdraws
5. What are the buttons in the bottom left?
These 3 are Lifelines. No one else has them
1. Show dealer card.
After 10 bets you can use this lifeline. It is an option to see dealers other card before showdown.
2.Show next card.
After 20 bets you can use this lifeline. It is an option to see next card what is coming to the table.
3.Swap one card.
This is the best and hardest to get lifeline. It activates after 30 bets. With this lifeline you can change any card what is on the table to a new random card. You can choose when do you want to use these lifelines.
6. How much the Affiliate commission?
Affiliate Program Details:
Revenue Share 50%
Cookie duration unlimited
Lifetime commissions on referred players
No admin fee
Instant affiliate payments
No minimum payments
No maximum payments
Focused also on the mobile market
Access to live stats and reports
7. How many decks are in play per hand?
There are 4 decks
8. What is the minimum bet limit?
The minimum bet is
Bitcoin 0.000001
Litecoin 0.000001
Dash 0.000001
9. What is the maximum bet limit?
The maximum bet is
Bitcoin 0.1
Litecoin 0.1
Dash 0.1
10. How to manually verify results?
Provably fair algorithm:
1) Server generates random seed
2) Server seed is hashed and sent to the player. Can be seen in Menu - Provably fair
3) Player will send its own seed. Seed can be entered manually in Menu - Provably fair
4) Two seeds are hashed together with sha256
5) Output is used as seed in Mersenne Twister RNG
6) Deck is generated with 4 packs of cards
7) Deck is shuffled using Fisher–Yates algorithm, with RNG provided in step 5
For example let's pick server and client seeds
server seed: 85728A263F0639D368DF48852D54A8F767512500D62E111EDAF972906A414FF80643A5FF7B3A8E3F9129DB1DA261FAC41C7431F74F099654301F57F497E8F1FE
client seed: f192685b5b26c72a92a833830947e5cac3383d5aa5b5210d2782f4fb51ba00bc7e5ce1b190c24013
Using these values
server seed hash would be 6A66A88382FAA06BB2EBCF2AA69EDF76596197D92C899D86A144990890B96EC8
client and server seed hashed together: ccfdcb55b4369d121854f77fbe8104e03a5a5611decd25afbdb88b02328a5a32
RNG seed: [3439184725, 3023478034, 408221567, 3196126432, 978998801, 3737986479, 3182988034, 847927858] (3439184725dec = 0xCCFDCB55hex and so on...)
First N random values produced by RNG: [1139799984, 4122921141, 3138460245, 3260841105, 2634829831, 1147546524, 4115959087, ...]
Using same logic on the game deck you can verify that server cannot alter the game output
???? Blackjack fun !! The probably fair (((casino))) !! ????
??????? ? http://blackjack.fun/ ? ????????
http://blackjack.fun
The Bitcoin (((casino)))?
Blackjack.Fun is a (((casino))) site which is launched in 2018. Where you can play the game with BTC, DASH, LTC. The results are probably fair. you can edit client seed to be more fair and more fun in your bets .
???? Blackjack fun !! The probably fair (((casino))) !! ????
??????? ? http://blackjack.fun/ ? ????????
Frequently Asked Questions About Blackjack.fun
1. How much is the minimum deposit?
There is no minimum or maximum deposit
2. How much is the Withdrawal fee?
There is no withdrawal fee. Only cryptocurrency transaction fee what depends on different cryptocurrencies
3. Dominans of chips?
You can change the domination of chips from Menu - Settings
4. How fast the withdrawal?
Blackjack.fun has Instant Withdraws
5. What are the buttons in the bottom left?
These 3 are Lifelines. No one else has them
1. Show dealer card.
After 10 bets you can use this lifeline. It is an option to see dealers other card before showdown.
2.Show next card.
After 20 bets you can use this lifeline. It is an option to see next card what is coming to the table.
3.Swap one card.
This is the best and hardest to get lifeline. It activates after 30 bets. With this lifeline you can change any card what is on the table to a new random card. You can choose when do you want to use these lifelines.
6. How much the Affiliate commission?
Affiliate Program Details:
Revenue Share 50%
Cookie duration unlimited
Lifetime commissions on referred players
No admin fee
Instant affiliate payments
No minimum payments
No maximum payments
Focused also on the mobile market
Access to live stats and reports
7. How many decks are in play per hand?
There are 4 decks
8. What is the minimum bet limit?
The minimum bet is
Bitcoin 0.000001
Litecoin 0.000001
Dash 0.000001
9. What is the maximum bet limit?
The maximum bet is
Bitcoin 0.1
Litecoin 0.1
Dash 0.1
10. How to manually verify results?
Provably fair algorithm:
1) Server generates random seed
2) Server seed is hashed and sent to the player. Can be seen in Menu - Provably fair
3) Player will send its own seed. Seed can be entered manually in Menu - Provably fair
4) Two seeds are hashed together with sha256
5) Output is used as seed in Mersenne Twister RNG
6) Deck is generated with 4 packs of cards
7) Deck is shuffled using Fisher–Yates algorithm, with RNG provided in step 5
For example let's pick server and client seeds
server seed: 85728A263F0639D368DF48852D54A8F767512500D62E111EDAF972906A414FF80643A5FF7B3A8E3F9129DB1DA261FAC41C7431F74F099654301F57F497E8F1FE
client seed: f192685b5b26c72a92a833830947e5cac3383d5aa5b5210d2782f4fb51ba00bc7e5ce1b190c24013
Using these values
server seed hash would be 6A66A88382FAA06BB2EBCF2AA69EDF76596197D92C899D86A144990890B96EC8
client and server seed hashed together: ccfdcb55b4369d121854f77fbe8104e03a5a5611decd25afbdb88b02328a5a32
RNG seed: [3439184725, 3023478034, 408221567, 3196126432, 978998801, 3737986479, 3182988034, 847927858] (3439184725dec = 0xCCFDCB55hex and so on...)
First N random values produced by RNG: [1139799984, 4122921141, 3138460245, 3260841105, 2634829831, 1147546524, 4115959087, ...]
Using same logic on the game deck you can verify that server cannot alter the game output
???? Blackjack fun !! The probably fair (((casino))) !! ????
??????? ? http://blackjack.fun/ ? ????????
looks like a STELLAR fork.. i got free stellars on the launch so i can't complain too much ;) .. however your Pi is not free and open source from what i see~ hmmm :\ : : where's their github page? tia
For victims of lost or stolen bitcoin, you can talk to a recovery expert, ASHERELLAZAR ON protonmall
Are you mining Pi yet?
It's a New Digital Currency and it is growing extremely fast!
You owe it to yourself to at least check it out.
Invitation Code Needed = ThePropheticOne
https://minepi.com/thepropheticone
Pi coin network is revolutionary!!! Here is an invite to it, it's still early to get in and no investment...
Pi is a new digital currency being developed by a group of Stanford PhDs. For a limited time, you can join the beta to earn Pi and help grow the network. To join Pi, follow this link https://minepi.com/weskraven and use my username (weskraven) as your invitation code.
~*~BTC~*~looking strong again!!~*~cryptoseason is back? weeeee
EMC2 black Halving March 18th countdown https://blockhalf.emc2.foundation/
$CIIX CIIX Sees Bright Future for Cryptocurrencies in China https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=137872777
CIIX is committed to raising awareness and education surrounding bitcoin. The company now hosts a daily broadcast from the NYSE, titled ‘Bitcoin MultiMillionaire’, with the intent of educating Chinese-speaking viewers on the most current news in cryptocurrency. In addition, CIIX is committed to bitcoin growth and has installed a bitcoin ATM in the lobby of its headquarters in San Gabriel, California. The Chinese middle and upper class is growing and looking for new ways to diversify their portfolios. ChineseInvestors.com is ready and able to offer them innovative accessibility to cryptocurrency.
For more information, visit the company’s website at www.ChineseInvestors.com
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=138293285
$CIIX Crypto Rev's in
Crypto Bitcoin $CIIX nice mover
BCEX EMC2 Trading Competition
Time
Jan 18th 23:00 - Jan 27th 23:00 (PST)
Details
During the competition period, the top 300 traders (buy and sell EMC2 on BCEX platform) to will have the following rewards:
1st: 6,666 EMC2
2nd: 4,666 EMC2
3rd: 2,666 EMC2
4th – 10th: 866 EMC2/person
11th – 50th: 566 EMC2/person
51st – 100th: 366 EMC2/person
101st – 200th: 126 EMC2/person
201st – 300th: 56 EMC2/person
All rewards will be dispersed within 7 working days to the recipient’s BCEX account
11th of March 2019 - EMC2 Block Halving http://blockhalf.emc2.foundation/ Weeeee
EMC2 on BCEX in few hours!
EMC2 will start trading on BCEX in few hours.
— Einsteinium (@einsteiniumcoin) January 3, 2019
Please read: https://t.co/JZNuw710mV
Happy 2019! pic.twitter.com/WixHe3RPIG
$DIGAF reversal, no dilution. New business direction news soon! Super thin $1 52wk high OTC trade desk for institutions. New website coming!
$CIIX is a crypto play. Has a crypto school
$CIIX Crypto play
Hemp, Inc. $HEMP Expertise and Featured in The Business Journal's Coverage of Emerging Hemp Marketplace
http://hempinc.com/hemp-inc-expertise-and-product-offering-featured-in-the-business-journals-coverage-of-emerging-hemp-marketplace/
$CIIX Bitcoin Millionaire VIP Livestream: In April 2018, the Company launched a new paid cryptocurrency subscription service modeled after the Company's core business providing one of the world's first live Chinese cryptocurrency broadcasts streaming 6.5 hours/day and featuring analysts providing live trading demonstrations.
5 Marijuana Stocks Ready To Explode $APHQF $CIIX $GWPH $INSY $CGC
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/5-marijuana-stocks-ready-to-explode-2018-08-14
EMC2 Lighsaber is out there! No more 51% attacks https://www.emc2.foundation/news/2018/10/25/new-emc2-wallet-lightsaber
Cryptocurrency $CIIX CIIX Reaching Chinese-Speaking Audience through Video Broadcasts and New Mobile App
- CIIX diversifies methods of reaching its global Chinese-speaking audience, with projects ranging from a daily video broadcast from the NYSE on cryptocurrencies to the development of a new social media mobile app for the cannabis industry
- Company’s new mobile app expected to be the first Chinese-language app offering reviews and discussion of cannabis products
- ‘Bitcoin MultiMillionaire’ is the company’s daily video broadcast from the NYSE prepared for its unique and expansive audience
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=138479183
Bitcoin $CIIX CIIX Strives to Educate, Bring Awareness to the Chinese-speaking Community on Cryptocurrency
Market analysis company (OTCQB: CIIX) has remained committed to the education and growth of cryptocurrency and is delivering innovative ways of making bitcoin more accessible to the Chinese-speaking community. An article discussing the company reads: “ChineseInvestors.com, Inc. (OTCQB: CIIX) is continuing its commitment to cryptocurrency education and awareness for the Chinese-speaking community. Its educational services seek to answer the average person’s curiosity while simultaneously providing skilled investors with up-to-date news on digital currency. Using the Chinese language character sets, CIIX provides analysis and education that is accessible to the Chinese-speaking community worldwide. CIIX provides information on how to purchase bitcoin, real-time market commentary and consulting services, as well as advertising and public relations services.”
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=138720706
** $OCLN Water and Blockchain
With blockchain, we can clean more water and create an opportunity for anyone in the world to build their own portfolio of projects for a share of the profits. We won’t have to ask permission; we will choose the best projects using the power of "people investing".
OriginClear, Inc. is a provider of water treatment solutions and the developer of a water cleanup technology. The Company licenses its technology worldwide to treat heavily polluted waters and also remove harmful micro-contaminants from drinking water, using minimal energy, chemicals, and materials. The Company is building a network of profitable water service companies. It is also deploying a blockchain-based WaterChain (tm) initiative to fund next generation water recycling systems.
https://www.waterchain.io/
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Moderator BIG BALLER | |||
Assistants satoshi Big_Money_Upward |
--------------------------------
This is the personal project of
Satoshi Nakamoto.
_ _ _>>>"SATOSHI-WEB-OF-TRUST" EXCHANGES / RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LINKS>>>_ _ _
https://freiexchange.com/ https://yobit.net https://c-patex.com/markets/plus1btc
*CORPORATE EXCHANGES
COINMARKETCAP INFO ===>
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-instant/#markets
https://www.coingecko.com
http://www.coinwarz.com/cryptocurrency/
http://www.coinchoose.com/ ________________________________________________________________________________
======================= CATS ========================
>>>BITCOIN/BITNET*BOOK>>> e1337- Outline - Mastering Bitcoin "Insiders Club"
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _!_Agreement: Anything you add here becomes the property of the author of Mastering Bitcoin, so that it may (or may not) be used in the book. vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KKV_VEmGPsPr74rFhhpqmdkFPuLRh6tSEQvsXdOcoZA/pub
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Bitcoin (BTC) is a digital currency first described in a 2008 paper by developer Satoshi Nakamoto, who called it a peer-to-peer, electronic cash system. Bitcoin creation and transfer is based on an open source cryptographic protocol and is not managed by any central authority. Each bitcoin is subdivided into 100 million smaller units called satoshis, defined by eight decimal places. Bitcoins can be transferred through a computer or smartphone without an intermediate financial institution. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ***Get your first bitcoins for free!***
>> FREE BTC FAUCETS >>
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_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ *MANY THANKS* AND MAY THE FORCE BEE WITH YOU ! ====>
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alt faucets ====> https://ih.advfn.com/common/plusonecoin/faucet
Alpha Coin Faucet====> http://alph.a.gp/index.php
http://admindependencia.net/faucet.html http://altcoin.tk/index.html http://doubloons.kicks-ass.net/ =================================================================================================== FREE BYTECOINS(BTE)====> http://www.bytehits.info/submit.php
The Free DGC Faucet! http://majesti.co/freedgc/
http://majesti.co/fastfaucet/
http://majesti.co/freefrk/index.php free Frankos(FRK)===> http://www.copiamarket.com/franko-faucet
^ ==== Infinitecoins !===> http://if.x.gg
*** free Terracoin=TRC=>
Use the coupon code=x2 "DOUBLEMONEY"
http://trcfaucet.com/ ========================================================================= *---ZETCOIN---faucet---* http://zet.qquu.com/ ((((tbc)))) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ $ TESTING CONTINUES SCiENTiFiCAL STUDiES!!! _///////^STAY CHOONED!<3<3 are you ready for even more worthless coins?====>weeeeeee!!!!! :) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ***~ BITCOINS COME IN MANY FLAVOURS ! (: ~*** *If you found any of this information helpful here are my addys: COiNATION BUCKETS ====> _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ********************* ====>>>vvv
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE ------====-------to-bee-continued!--------------====------ _ ***
? ?? ???? ?????? ???????? ??????????? ====> "...THE GOAT (A NEW "SPECIES" OF CRYPTOCURRENCY!) Features: - No mining, every client downloaded up until starts with two goats until there are 100,000 total "generation" goats. Two goats can breed to get a litter of anything from 0.3 to 1 goat. Breeding is like mining, the difficulty gets higher as more goats are made. - You can sell you goats to buy more breeding habitats (you start with 1) - There is going to be a limit of 100 Million goats. - The goats generate milk and cheese which means the value of the goat goes "up" 0.1% every day. For example, if you had 100 goats, the next day you would have 100.1 goats in your wallet Is anyone willing to help me develop this? New goats are created every 1.5 minutes (block time) Difficulty to breed starts low Like the game farmville except with cryptocurrency .." baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!! ******************* *************** APPLE iCOIN? LOL _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ __ __ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ __ _ _ _ __ _ __ _ _ __ _ _
***(daily updates~stay tuned!)*** Disclaimer: Bitcoins are a volatile market in the early stages. It is risky investment money into Bitcoin, stocks, and any investments mentioned here! Nobody here is a finanical adviser. Never buy, sell or hold based on anything said by myself or anyone here. Always do your own DD and research!!!!! I take no responsibility for your gains nor losses!!!!!
[ CONFIRMED; ]
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