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bought FAS @21.73 today. Also HOU.to @ 5.90.
good thing I dumped GOLD <gulp>!
DPM.to purchase was timely up 10% today...
the 2nd HMU.to should have read HNU.to Anyway the trades are working out great. Bought back DPM.to & added QEC.to
It's just possible that the 40 week average is gonna hold on the DOW 10324 (& the SnP500 (1109)
feeling a little bullish today. Dumped HGU.to (again) & DPM.to. (may regret the later), bought HOU.to, HMU.to, HMU.to, CSIQ & TAN.
Will watch & see if the trades work out or not.
out of Gold & silver
HGU.to soaring :)
bought a whack of DPM.to
GOLD having a nice day today :)
Stopped out of FAZ for a small loss. Got killed on HNU.to today.
double bottom breakdown on the PnF chart for FAS today. So I bought FAZ also added to exiting holdings more HGU.to
pretty quiet around here...
hi. new to the board. I was looking for a board that focus' on Canadian stocks. Is this it? I am kind of wondering.. becuase judging from what I am reading in the ibox, it does not focus on Canadian stocks... i find the American markets to large to work effectively in... I prefer to stick with Canada..
another sweet week! Not much to do while everything just about is in trend mode. Just collecting profits...
lvlt taking off I'm in @1.10
well that didn't last long, got make this quick real busy but bought all kinds of tech stocks & in & out all day on FAS. Still have a position in it. Will be buying USD tomorrow & TNA. Have stinky bids in.
I think that the NAZ is poised to rocket @ this juncture. Who knows, lot of money on the sidelines, maybe they will start to panic buy. Sheeple are always late to the party <g>
exited all my trades today, except for a small manageable position in CSIQ
& the crazy returns continue. Bought more CSIQ @ 6.99 to bring average price up to $5.95
looks like it wants to break above its January highs & October lows.
WOW! What a "POP" on solar today. The average return for the stocks in that sector was an outstanding 40% move today. Amazing. I hope somebody got on board other then me :)
got filled earlier today on GXS.v & GCE.to, added another tranche of AMD as it closed above $3.00. FAS went crazy today was filled at 6.12 & 6.18, XLF closed above its 50 day sma for the first time in a long, long time since August & Sept 08. Will be interesting to see if it has staying power. According to what I follow on the charts, it look quite possible a change of trend has taken place for the positive.
I like this article, however I disagree about the futility of market timeing. Best line in the article is "We live in a world of uncertainty (the odds of events occurring cannot be measured), not a world of risk (the odds can be measured)"
Lessons the Market Taught Us in 2008
by: Larry Swedroe January 01, 2009
http://seekingalpha.com/article/112915-lessons-the-market-taught-us-in-2008
This year’s bear market provided a sufficient number of lessons that it should be considered a “doctoral seminar.”
Lesson 1: Neither investment banks nor other active managers (including hedge funds) can protect investors from bear markets. All crystal balls are cloudy, which is why Warren Buffett concluded: “The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good.”(1)
If their money managers could protect you, why did firms like Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns go belly up and Merrill Lynch have to be rescued by Bank of America? It is in the best interest of these firms to manage their risks well. Yet, they have clearly demonstrated that they cannot. As evidence of their lack of ability to forecast events consider that in 2008 Lehman spent $751 million buying back its own stock at an average price of $49.60 and Merrill Lynch spent $5.27 billion buying back its stock in 2007 at an average price of $84.88.(2)
We can only conclude that with all the conflicts of interest that exist between these firms and their clients there is no reason to think that they would manage their clients’ risks any better. Investors don’t need to pay Wall Street big fees to have their money managed. Large fees are only likely to make managers rich, not investors. Wall Street’s best skill is designing product that separates capital from owners.
Lesson 2: Never take more risk than you have the ability, willingness or need to take. Violating this rule is what led to the failure of Lehman, Bear Stearns, AIG and others. They all took on so much leverage, especially considering the risky nature of the assets, that they had to be right all the time, not just in the long run.
Lesson 3: Diversify broadly across many asset classes. However, remember that even low correlating risky assets have a nasty tendency to have correlations rise at the worst time. Thus, make sure your portfolio has sufficient fixed income assets of the highest quality so that overall portfolio risk is reduced to the appropriate level.
Lesson 4: For fixed income assets, stick only with Treasuries, bonds of government agencies and the highest rated municipal bonds (AAA/AA). With municipal bonds make sure the underlying rating (not the rating with credit insurance) meets that test. Anything else (such as high-yield [junk] bonds, convertible bonds, emerging market bonds and preferred stocks) can have the risks show up at the wrong time and, thus, should be avoided. Their risks do not mix well with equity risks.
Thus, although such instruments are touted for their additional return, what little additional expected return they actually offer is more than offset by their greater risks when considered in the context of the overall portfolio. If one is willing to take incremental risk, they should do so by increasing their equity allocation. The incremental expected returns can then be earned more tax efficiently and the risks can be more effectively diversified.
Lesson 5: Don’t confuse the familiar with the safe and concentrate labor capital and financial assets in the same basket. Many employees of once great companies lost not only their jobs, but also much of their financial assets because they made this mistake.
Lesson 6: One of the more persistent myths is that active managers can protect you from bear markets. In 2008, the hardest hit sector was financial stocks. Financials comprise a significant portion of the asset class of value stocks. As benchmarks for the active managers we can use the Vanguard Small Value Index Fund that lost 32.1 percent and the Vanguard (Large) Value Fund that lost 36.0 percent.
The following is a list of the returns of some of the actively managed mutual funds with superstar value managers, four of whom were named by Morningstar in June 2008 as their recommendations to run value superstars, their recommendations (those are noted with *): Legg Mason Value Trust lost 55.1 percent; *Dodge & Cox lost 44.3 percent; Dreman Concentrated Value lost 49.5 percent; *Weitz Value lost 40.7 percent; *Schneider Value lost 55.0 percent; and *Columbia Value and Restructuring lost 47.6 percent.
Of course, some actively managed value funds beat those benchmarks. However, how would you have known ahead of time which ones they would be? As the SEC’s required disclaimer states: Past performance is not a predictor of future performance. Thus, the prudent strategy is to use only passively managed funds.
Lesson 7: We live in a world of uncertainty (the odds of events occurring cannot be measured), not a world of risk (the odds can be measured). And investors much prefer risky bets to uncertainty bets. Since we could not calculate the odds of a bear market like the one we experienced in 2008 occurring, investors require a very large equity risk premium. That is why over the long term stocks have outperformed riskless Treasury bills by such a wide margin.
Lesson 8: Treat neither the unlikely as impossible (U.S. housing prices will fall sharply) nor the likely as certain (stocks will beat bonds over long horizons). And remember that just because something has not happened, doesn’t mean it cannot or will not. Investors should have learned that lesson on September 11, 2001. Making these mistakes led to the demise of Lehman and Bear Stearns.
Lesson 9: There is a great likelihood that each time there is a crisis, some guru will have forecasted it with amazing accuracy. But that ignores two important facts. The first problem is that even blind squirrels occasionally will find acorns. In other words, there are tens of thousands of gurus making forecasts all the time.
Given the number trying, randomly, we should expect some to make accurate forecasts. The crash of October 1987 was forecast with amazing accuracy by a little known analyst named Elaine Garzarelli. Having made such a prescient forecast she was immediately elevated to guru status and everyone was seeking her opinions. Unfortunately, her subsequent forecasts were well off the mark and the returns she produced as a fund manager were so poor that she was fired in May of 1996.
Each crisis produces its own “Garzarelli.” This crisis produced Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics and international business at NYU’s Stern’s School of Business. A problem with Roubini (and almost all forecasters) is that we don’t know how many other forecasts he has made and what is the track record of those forecasts.
Another problem is that the evidence on the accuracy of such forecasts is best summed up by the findings of William Sherden, author of The Fortune Sellers. Sherden studied the performance of seven forecasting professions: investment experts, meteorology, technology assessment, demography, futurology, organizational planning, and economics. He concluded that while none of the experts were very expert, the folks we most often make jokes about—weathermen—actually had the best predictive powers.
Sherden also provided these insights: He said that the First Law of Economics was that for every economist, there is an equal and opposite economist—for every bullish economist, there is a bearish one. His Second Law of Economics was that they are both likely to be wrong. Sherden’s research found that there are no economic forecasters who consistently lead the pack in forecasting accuracy.(3)
Perhaps the most interesting thing about Roubini is that despite his forecast he revealed that his retirement account had a 100 percent allocation to equities. It seems that Roubini knows enough to ignore his own forecasts as they are not likely to lead to abnormal profits.
Lesson 10: Investment returns are not earned smoothly—returns are not even close to being normally distributed (like a bell curve). In fact, the daily returns that are outside of three standard deviations (over 99 percent of the data) are six times what would be predicted by a normal distribution.
The result is that most of the market’s returns come from short, but powerful, bursts of bull and bear markets. Consider the unlucky investor who missed just the best 100 days from 1900 through 2006. He would end with less money than he started with—forget 107 years of inflation.
On the other hand, avoiding the worst 100 days would have increased terminal wealth 43,397 percent. Since a negligible proportion of days determines either a massive creation or destruction of wealth, the odds against successful market timing are simply staggering.(4) That is why Warren Buffett concluded: “Inactivity strikes us as intelligent behavior.”(5)
In the case of the investment banks, their use of large amounts of leverage, combined with the “exceptionally” large negative returns led to their demise—though the historical data shows that such losses were in fact not that exceptional. As Spanish philosopher Santayana said: “Those who don’t know their history are doomed to repeat it.”
This was the same mistake that led to the death of Long Term Capital Management in 1998. Even though their positions would have been profitable in the end, they did not survive to see that result—margin calls forced them to liquidate their positions.
Lesson 11: One of Albert Einstein’s more famous quotations is: “There are only two things that are infinite; the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.” If Einstein had lived long enough he would have added a third—the ability of Wall Street’s investment bankers to create an endless stream of “innovative” products that exploit investors.
In my thirteen years as director of research of the Buckingham Family of Financial Services I have yet to review a single product that did not fall into the category that can be defined as a product meant to be sold, but never bought. Among the recent entrees are: Accumulators, Booster-Plus Notes, Buffered Notes, Principal Protection Notes, Reverse Convertibles, STRATS and Super-Track Notes. These are all complex derivative products, with the complexity designed in the favor of the issuer.
Lesson 12: Make sure your investment plan incorporates the virtual certainty that crises will occur. We cannot know what form they will take, nor when they will occur. While bear markets are painful, there is no good alternative to buy and hold except avoiding risk and accepting Treasury bill returns. Timing the market is a mug’s game. For example, a study on 100 pension plans that hired the “best managers” around to engage in tactical asset allocation (a fancy term for market timing so large fees can be charged) found that not a single one had benefited from the efforts.(6)
Lesson 13: Since we know that crises will occur, and we cannot know how long they will last, a critical part of the financial planning process is to develop “Plan B”—the actions that will be taken if financial assets fall to such a great degree that if “Plan A” is not altered the result would be its likely failure—the investor will run out of assets. Plan B should list the actions that would be taken if financial assets fell to a predetermined level. Those actions might include remaining in the work force longer (or returning to the work force if that is possible), reduce current spending, reduce the financial goal and moving to a location with a lower cost of living. The use of Monte Carlo simulations can be a valuable tool in determining what, if any, actions are should be considered or are even required.
Lesson 14: There are two good reasons to change a well-thought-out investment plan. The first is that the underlying assumptions upon which it was based have changed. For example, there may have been a loss of a job, a death in the family, a divorce or an inheritance. Each of these events can significantly impact the ability, willingness or need to take risk.
The other good reason to change a plan is if a sharp fall in the value of one’s assets (both financial assets and home prices) leads to the investor realizing that they had, unintentionally, taken more risk than they really should have taken. This mistake may have resulted from the common human trait of overconfidence. In this case, overconfidence in the ability to deal with the emotional stress of severe bear markets. Or it may have resulted from treating the unlikely as impossible.
Even smart people make mistakes. However, once they learn “the error of their ways” they neither repeat nor perpetuate the mistake. Before making any change to a financial plan it is important to make sure that the decision is being made by the head, and not the stomach. In other words, any change should be based on a fundamental analysis of the facts, and not based on the emotions of fear and panic that can rise up during bear markets.
Lesson 15: Trust but verify. The Madoff scandal, perhaps the largest in the history of the investment banking industry, with losses possibly reaching as high as $50 billion, was completely avoidable. Those that lost money have only themselves to blame. Relying on social connections and reputations is to rely on hope; and hope is not an investment strategy.
Investors that followed the basic principles of prudent investing would not have been taken in. Investments should only be made within the framework of a highly regulated industry where there is complete transparency. An obvious requirement is that there must be audited financial statements from a well-known and highly regarded CPA firm. Audits verify the financial statements of the money manager as well as check correspondence with the custodians, brokers, and transfer agent of the funds to confirm reported trades and securities held. The fund’s accounting should be performed independently of the money manager. And the fund’s assets should be held in with an independent, regulated custodian such as a bank or trust company.
Final Lesson: The key to successful investing is to get the plan right in the first place, and then stick to it. That means acting like the lowly postage stamp that does one thing, but does it well—sticking to its letter until it reaches its destination. Your job is to stick to your well-developed plan until you reach your financial goal. And, if you don’t have a plan, write one immediately. And make sure the plan includes the aforementioned Plan B—the actions you are prepared to take if the “unexpected” does happen.
watch the solar sector over the next few days. It was on fire today with many double digit moves.
Closed a very sweet trade today on FAS 3x bull financial
entered on this post @ 2.89
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36163080
and exited the trade today @ 7.12 which is 151% return in 9 days
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36402373
AMD I'm in... nice clear breakout on that chart
Watch Jon Stewart rip Jim Cramer apart (CNBC Mad Money show)
http://www.thedailyshow.com/
interesting read... fits in with my thinking. Apparently him & I are the only one's out there thinking that this is the start of a new bull market.
Bellwether market sectors pass higher lows test
If you Google "Elliott the recognition point" you will find an item asking; "Have you reached the point of recognition?"
According to Elliott wave theory we reach the point of recognition when investors can see that the stock market is moving strongly in one direction, be it up or down.
Elliott wave sets out a bull market structure to be three impulse waves (or up-legs) separated by two corrective waves or down-legs. The recognition point is the peak of the first up-leg advance and when exceeded by the second up-leg advance can introduce a buying panic as the crowd recognizes the new bullish trend
The recognition point is typically flashed about one-third into the second up-leg advance. The last bull market recognition point occurred in May 2003
Let us go back and assume the first bull market advance of the broader North American stock indexes had its origins in the lows of last October-November 2008. Let us now assume the advance from those lows to the peaks of early January 2009 was an Elliott wave 1, or a first up-leg advance.
If so, the corrective period from the January 2009 peak to the lows of March 2009 was the corrective period we needed to introduce a new second up-leg advance.
In a bull market an Elliott wave 3 (or the second up-leg) is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend. The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates.
Once we pass the recognition point, prices rise quickly and corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to get in on a pullback will likely miss the boat.
The problem now is to decide if this week's market activity satisfies the origins of an Elliott wave 3 or new second up-leg advance.
Last Tuesday's broad advance in the North American equity markets was technically impressive.
The financials on both sides of the border led the way with the S&P/TSX financial index and the SPDR financial sector jumping 12 per cent and 15 per cent.
Other double-digit gainers were the S&P/TSX diversified metals and mining index, the U.S. REITs and the U.S. broker dealer index.
Notable big-cap winners were General Electric Co., Wells Fargo & Co., Intel Corp. and Research In Motion Ltd., all with double-digit gains.
Our chart this week is that of the daily closes of the TSX composite index spanning the October 2008 to March 2009 trading window.
There are two significant junctures to focus on – the lows of November 2008 and the current lows of March 2009.
Keep in mind that if a new second up-leg advance is to get underway, it should begin from a low equal to or above the important October-November 2008 lows.
Note that while the recent March lows dipped slightly under the November lows, many important stock sectors such as consumer staples, energy and materials posted higher March lows.
In the U.S., important groups such as the SPDR technology and SPDR oil and gas producers also passed the higher low test.
Now refer to the price peak of January 2009; this is the recognition point.
Now in order for us to have an "official" bull market on our hands there is an important test to be satisfied.
The current advance must, within eight weeks, have the legs to carry most of the broader stock indexes above their respective January 2009 price peaks in order to exceed the recognition point.
In 2003 this was accomplished in nine weeks following the March 14, 2003 lows.
This will not be a slam dunk because the TSX must add on another 20 per cent from here and the S&P 500 must rebound 30 per cent
Don't write this off as a pipe dream. During the Barack Obama honeymoon rally of November 2008 through January 2009, the S&P 500 tacked on 27 per cent in eight weeks.
Meet you soon, at the recognition point.
Bill Carrigan is an independent stock-market analyst with a Canadian Investment Manager designation. He can be reached at: info@gettingtechnical.com
<<Besides all that, most of the charts that I follow suggest the absolute bottom of this bear market happened last week on Friday, March 6th, 2009. And take that to the bank,
'cause u heard it here first>>
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36243257
keep an eye on this post as the chart automatically updates.
nice move by SNDK since Wednesday - almost up a nice 16% in 3 days... apparently driven by rumours that Samsung gonna buy'em.
Also sweet moves by FNX.to & DMM.to (I wonder when DMM.to will hit $25.00 ?) Gonna hold for that day anyhow - me thinks maybe in September.
My ETF's have been fantastic the last few dayz. I post'em on this board only.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36243257
bought SNDK & more DMM other trades are ETF's & are posted on another thread.
nice break out I bought the POS(the last two days anyhow) by FNX.to
well that didn't last long... got kicked out so I entered YHOO today @ 12.91 FWIW pretty strong here on a relative basis compared to the rest of the market
been busy on this thread... http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=13215
hold your nose... ughh sewer (yes! those sewers) play on infrastructure
FWIW bought INSU on the Naz
WOW! Nice day :)
in LVLT
interesting charts - will probably take a position in AGQ
CSIQ will it be able to break through its 50 day sma?
and also bought a chitload of CSIQ today.
& AQI.to
stopped out of everything except DMM.to & added to that position
This is a thread to discuss the TA merits of Stocks that trade on a variety of senior exchanges, preferably with a minimum volume of 50,000 for the TSE & AMEX; & 200,000 shares average volume for the NYSE, NASDAQ.
I rarely play the CDNX... but I have no choice in the current market enviroment... (resource friendly), note these stocks are thinly traded & one must always use limit orders & sit on the bid or ask for days or weeks in order to get a fill.
As of this date January 14/06, resource stocks have been flying, in many cases doubling or tripling in a couple of days or less. Amazing how things change. Looks like were in a very speculative bull market in that exchange.
High risk IMO but sometimes very high reward.
Please do not post OTC American stocks. (ie: Nasdaq pink sheets)
I am a novice chart reader giving opinions that I hope will help me and others learn some more about Technical Analysis.
Sometimes I'm right, most of the time I'm wrong. Which is why I use stops. Mental, physical or otherwise...depending on the liquidity <g/ng>
**********************************************************************************************************************************
My typical charts now show the following indicators:
Candle Chart - a candle price chart used in conjunction with
Moving Averages (on the Price Chart) - I have been using a 5 X 21 day EMA moving average.
Moving Average crosses, either of the daily price over various MA's, or of each other, are often significant. Note that I like to work in three different periods, monthly, weekly, daily or weekly, daily, hourly. With confirmation ideally in all 3 time periods, but I am comfortable with two time frame confirmations (higher risk though...)
ADX - the ADX line (heavy black) is used to establish whether a strong trend (rising ADX) or a weakening, non-trending period is in effect for that particular chart.
In trending (rising) periods, trend following indicators (MACD and MA's) are perhaps more valuable.
In non-trending (under 20) or possibly flat or falling periods, oscillating indicators (Stochastics for example) may be more appropriate to use.
+DI, -DI (within the ADX section) - these lines are indications of buying &/or selling strength
It may be useful to use a cross of the +DI over the -DI as a buy signal in conjunction with other indicators, and to use the opposite cross as a sell signal or as a possible short.
MACD - See above re: use in a trending market (see ADX: above 20)
Stochastic - For an oscillating or a non-trending market (see ADX: below 20) market.
OBV- an indicator of the strength of money flow into or out of a stock over a period of time.
Occasionally I will post Pnf (point & figure) charts, along with detailed explanations, in conjunction with the other charts.
Example of a PnF chart :
Example of a typical (daily)up trending chart with my favorite indicators
and 3yr weekly
Please enjoy, learn, and contribute.
Regards,
Peter
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