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Gold broke down today...
new bearish objective $789.00 also failed @ the 200 day sma
<<looks like Mr. Market is setting up for a crash in October or sooner>>
Looks like I'm gonna have to work on my forecasting - I was off a day or two <ggg> Still September <lol>
GULP! Take a look at this chart. Holy Shit!!!
This is unprecedented.
Closer view
The only thing that looks good are inverse (or short) ETF's.
Were due for a bounce soon so that should be a good trading opportunity, otherwise I'm 100% cash.
Lunch sound good. Bob if u see this give me a call.
What do you see leading us out of this mess?
Lunch?
Call Bob.
looks like Mr. Market is setting up for a crash in October or sooner.
Hello
you guys are swingers lol
I din't see no stinkin chart! :)
Interesting chart - thanks for pointing it out to me :)
QI might be worth a look. similar story. #msg-31926285
Give me liberty, or give me meth.
Thanks - sold SNDK @ 17.14 for a nice gain.
wow what great timing.
stopped out of both trades. Watching UNG
back in KLAC @ $39.89, SNDK @ $14.99 (eom)
closed trades in CLS & KLAC. Basically sold'em for what I bought'em.
sold SNDK @ 16.28 (nice $2.00 gain/share) sold AMD @ $5.10 (nice .50 cent/share gain) -- > all in American dollars. still holding CLS & KLAC
...You don't understand! I coulda had class. I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am.. Marlon Brando 'On the Waterfront'.
Buy now: The charts are signalling an uptrend
(just happens to coincide with what I've been thinking, thats why I have been buying US stocks the last past couple of weeks)
The old saying on Bay and Wall Streets is that no one rings a bell at market tops and bottoms. Well, right here in this space I am (officially) ringing the "buy" bell.
The major problem in forecasting bull and bear markets seems to be the lack of consensus as to what constitutes a bull or bear market.
Most of the experts I follow in technical, quantitative and cycle studies (including the late, great Ian S. Notley) agree with the four-year cycle model, with the bull skew running for 36 months and the bear skew running for 12 months. This sets out an industry standard that allows us to identify all of the bull and bear cycles over the past 100-plus years.
Ned Davis Research has identified about 25 bull and bear cycles in the Dow Jones industrial average over the past 100 years.
His work suggests that while the bull skew is about three times longer than the bear skew, the bear can easily wipe out one third of your portfolio in a short time.
Here is how to tell if the market has turned.
Get your bearings:
We know the North American financial, consumer, health-care, technology and industrial groups all peaked during the March through July 2007 period, which means the current bear had its origins about 12 months ago. Therefore, in terms of time (12 months) and direction (down), our cyclic bear has run its course.
Ignore the news:
Business headlines and the related bullish and bearish stampedes have little correlation to the longer-term direction of stock prices. That is because stock prices lead the current business headlines. If you sit on cash and wait for the current financial crisis to end, you will eventually be forced into chasing the next bull market.
Watch the price of gold:
Gold peaked at just over $1,000 (U.S.) an ounce last March in reaction to the worst financial crisis since the U.S. savings and loan fiasco of the early 1980s and perhaps even since the Great Depression. The crisis continues and the price of gold is down to $900. My question for the gold bugs: Crisis, what crisis?
Watch the economy:
Forget those monthly government economic reports such as industrial production, retail sales, non farm payrolls, housing starts and durable goods orders because they lag and are often restated.
Look instead at the companies that are bellwethers of the economy, such as the transportation companies that deliver the goods corporations and individuals buy and sell to one another.
Monitor the small- to mid-cap companies because they are more sensitive to the business cycle than the larger multinationals.
Look for divergence:
There is a difference between reality and perception. We need our charts for this because we are looking for divergence between the price of a stock group (reality) and the current investor sentiment (perception). If the U.S. economy is collapsing, the economy-sensitive Dow transportation average should be road kill. And if smaller companies are more sensitive to the economy than larger companies, their shares will suffer more during a recession.
Our chart this week is that of the weekly closes of the Dow Jones transportation average plotted above the weekly closes of the small cap Russell 2000 index.
Note the series of higher lows on the upper plot, with the January 2008 low being followed by the higher lows of March and again in June. A series of higher lows means we have an uptrend in place, clearly a divergence between the price (reality) and the fear of a U.S. recession (perceived reality).
The lower plot of the small-cap Russell 2000 displays the same divergence between the price and the fear of a U.S. recession. Note the March low followed by a higher July low, signalling an uptrend.
I will change my mind if over the next eight to 12 weeks both of these bellwethers change direction and violate their July lows.
Bill Carrigan is an independent stock-market analyst. His Getting Technical column appears Friday. He can be reached at www.gettingtechnical.com on the Internet.
...You don't understand! I coulda had class. I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am.. Marlon Brando 'On the Waterfront'.
bought AMD (yesterday got filled @ 4.60) & KLAC today @ 38.25
didn't end up buying PMCS, it kind've of got away from me.
...You don't understand! I coulda had class. I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am.. Marlon Brando 'On the Waterfront'.
bought CLS.to
thinking about buying PMCS tomorrow...
bought Sandisk (flash memory) SNDK @14.28
looks like a hammer bottom was put in last week FWIW
...You don't understand! I coulda had class. I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am.. Marlon Brando 'On the Waterfront'.
lot of whipsawing going on. Looks like money rotating to the financials
new bearish objective today in the price of GOLD $802.00, also broke its trendline
...You don't understand! I coulda had class. I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am.. Marlon Brando 'On the Waterfront'.
Bill Carrigan
I love bear markets.
They are like a cooling, late-summer breeze that refreshes and blows away the oppressive heat and speculative fever that accompany bull markets.
Unfortunately, if history is to be our guide, the great bear market of 2007-08 is coming to an end.
With markets falling since last year after financial and consumer goods stocks hit new highs we have now witnessed the typical characteristics of a bear market – a duration of 10 months to 14 months and a decline of more than 20 per cent.
Most bear markets are usually spawned by some type of crisis such as the Arab oil embargo of 1973 — or the crash of technology stocks after a splurge in spending leading up to 2000.
The latest bear began with the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007.
Two major market sectors made it unscathed through the technology bear of 2000 to 2002 – energy and financial services.
But, after nearly 20 years of growth, the financial sector has suffered a major setback.
This could mark the start of a long-term period of contraction – and I would argue that it does. If you fail to recognize this, you will have difficulty attaining above-average returns in the equity markets. I believe this is a logical assumption for several reasons.
Foremost among these is the fact that the Woodstock generation that is the first wave of the baby boom is becoming more risk-averse and ploughing less into equity mutual funds.
And the trend can only intensify given the increasing number of baby boom retirees expected over the next decade.
Meanwhile, thanks to free trade and the global economy, the children of the baby boomers could have more difficulty than their parents accumulating wealth.
If that assumption proves correct, we should see the beginnings of a long contraction of the financial services sector.
Our chart this week is that of the weekly closes of the GMP Capital Trust, (TSX-GMP.UN), plotted above the weekly closes of IGM Financial Inc., (TSX-IGM).
Aside from the obvious downtrends in both plots, the other problem is their common cyclical peaks of early 2006, about a year before the Canadian banks stocks hit their cyclical peaks.
If the financial sector were indeed entering a period of long-term contraction, investors would need to avoid the shares of financial asset gatherers.
The brutal truth is that with not enough new investors created to replace the ones leaving the market, the only way for these fund companies to exist it to take clients from each other.
As such, investors can expect pressure to move assets from one firm to another. This could be a mistake because you may end up replacing a good asset manager with a good marketing manager.
The good marketing manager will write a book, usually with a spin on current investment industry irritations such as sales commissions, trailer fees, deferred sales charges and hidden fees on initial public offerings.Here is your defence: Before acting, ask for proof of past performance for at least five years.
It should be available in a series of publications from inception.
Bill Carrigan is an independent stock-market analyst. He can be reached at www.gettingtechnical.com.
No sooner did I write that last post & then I sold it when it was tittering for a nice .65 cent gain
oops! That should read stopped out of HFU.to not HGU.to which I bought at the close yesterday @$27.06
stopped out on HGU.to & UYG
bought UYG on the Amex 19.65
Bought HFU.to @ 10.87 the Bull plus Etf x2 the financials indice
looks like to me anyway, that the pos had panic selling climax yesterday.
stopped out HGU.to for some nice bucks.
nailed that trade HGU.to :)
bought a full-load of HGU.to @ 26.15 to add to my holdings from earlier
bought a wack've of FNV warrants today. The common has had a nice move, but the warrants really haven't moved yet. Could be a arbitrage play
And another just in my mailbox now.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=27207
You Can't Fuel All of the People All of the Time
by Ann Coulter (more by this author)
Posted 06/25/2008 ET
Updated 06/25/2008 ET
Liberals dismiss studies that show a link between abortion and breast cancer, claiming they are biased because the people promoting the studies are "anti-choice."
For the same reason, no one should believe the Democrats' "energy" policies.
Democrats couldn't care less about high gas prices. The consistent policy of the Democratic Party, going back at least to Jimmy Carter, has been to jack up gas prices so we can all start pedaling around on tricycles.
Environmentalists are constantly clamoring for higher gas taxes as the cure-all to their insane global warming theory. Clinton proposed a 26-cent tax on gas. John Kerry said it should be 50 cents. Gore endorsed the Malthusian proposal of Paul and Anne Ehrlich in "The Population Explosion" that gas taxes be raised gradually to match prices in Europe and Japan.
The result is consumers now pay about 46 cents per gallon in gasoline taxes. That's not including taxes paid directly to the government by the oil companies and passed onto consumers. As the inestimable economist John Lott has pointed out, in the past 25 years oil companies have paid more than three times in taxes what they have made in profits.
B. Hussein Obama's response to soaring gas prices is to have the oil companies collect even more money from us at the pump, proposing a "windfall profits tax" on oil companies. "Corporate taxes" sound like taxes on rich people, but all they do is force corporations to collect taxes on behalf of the government.
Democrats have worked hard to ensure that Americans pay as much for gas as Europeans do. After a quarter-century of gas tax hikes, a ban on drilling for oil and a complete destruction of the nuclear power industry in America, I guess liberals can declare: Mission accomplished!
In response to skyrocketing gas prices, liberals say, practically in unison, "We can't drill our way out of this crisis."
What does that mean? This is like telling a starving man, "You can't eat your way out of being hungry!" "You can't water your way out of drought!" "You can't sleep your way out of tiredness!" "You can't drink yourself out of dehydration!"
Seriously, what does it mean? Finding more oil isn't going to increase the supply of oil?
It is the typical Democratic strategy to babble meaningless slogans, as if they have a plan. Their plan is: the permanent twilight of the human race. It's the only solution they can think of to deal with the beastly traffic on the LIE (Long Island Expressway).
How do liberals propose we acquire the energy required for the economic activity and production that results in light appearing when they flick a switch? The larger enterprise involved in producing that little miracle eludes them.
Liberals complain that -- as B. Hussein Obama put it -- there's "no way that allowing offshore drilling would lower gas prices right now. At best you are looking at five years or more down the road."
This is as opposed to airplanes that run on woodchips, which should be up and running any moment now.
Moreover, what was going on five years ago? Why didn't anyone propose drilling back then?
Say, you know what we need? We need a class of people paid to anticipate national crises and plan solutions in advance. It would be such an important job, the taxpayers would pay them salaries so they wouldn't have to worry about making a living and could just sit around anticipating crises.
If only we had had such a group -- let's call them "elected representatives" -- they could have proposed drilling five years ago!
But of course we do pay people to anticipate national problems and propose solutions. Some of them -- we'll call them Republicans -- did anticipate high gas prices and propose solutions.
Six long years ago President Bush had the foresight to demand that Congress allow drilling in a minuscule portion of the Alaska's barren, uninhabitable Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). In 2002, Bush, Tom DeLay and the entire Republican Party were screaming from the rooftops: Drill! Drill! Drill!
We'd be gushing oil now -- except the Democrats stopped us from drilling.
Drilling on only 0.01 percent of ANWR's 19 million acres was projected to produce about 10 billion barrels of oil. From all domestic sources combined, we currently produce about 1.8 billion barrels of oil per year. To a layperson like myself, 10 billion barrels seems like a lot of oil.
The other party -- plus John McCain -- ferociously opposed drilling in ANWR, drilling offshore or drilling anyplace else. Instead of Drill! Drill! Drill!, their motto could be: Kill! Kill! Kill!
They refuse to believe our abortion studies? I refuse to believe they care about Americans having to pay high gas prices.
Cool... She is a great writer. Wouldn't have guessed that the Wall Street pimps were lining up behind the Democrats. Now that I think about it, what she says makes sense.
Peter:
Got home to find this in my mailbox. Don't know if she's right about the guy she's touting, but she sure is right about the fat cats and Wall Street boys.
Dear Fellow Conservative,
Do you know which special interest has given more money to the Obama and Clinton campaigns than any other?
If you guessed "trial lawyers" -- well, okay, that's too easy. But can you guess which special interest came in second?
Labor unions? Nope. The Green Lobby? Nope. AARP? Wrong, again. NEA? Nyet.
Give up? Okay, here's the answer: Wall Street.
That's right. According to CNNMoney.com, Wall Street securities and investment firms have given over $35 million to Democratic candidates this election cycle. And the amount they've given to the Clinton and Obama campaigns is nearly five times the amount they've given to McCain.
If you've been wondering why the financial industry has been in meltdown -- and taking your 401(k) or investment portfolio down with it -- now you know.
Let's face it: The former frat boys who populate Wall Street today understand economics about as well as the pinko professors whose courses they snored through.
That's why betting their entire industry on "subprime" loans to people with no jobs and no collateral made sense to them -- and why betting the entire U.S. economy on the likes of Hillary and Obama makes sense to them now.
These jokers don't even know what's in their own self-interest, much less yours. Trusting them with your money is like trusting Bill Clinton to babysit your underage niece.
But I know someone you can trust to manage your investments -- or rather, to help you do it yourself, without paying a nickel in commissions to some Wall Street frat boy.
His name is Dr. Mark Skousen -- that's "Dr." as in "Ph.D. in Economics and Monetary History," something you don't get by playing Beer Pong with your frat buddies. For the past 28 years, subscribers to his investment newsletter, Forecasts & Strategies, have profited enormously from his uncanny ability to predict major market trends before they happen -- often while the Wall Street establishment is pointing investors the other way. For instance:
In the early '80s, Dr. Skousen predicted that "Reaganomics will work" and said "a long decade of profits is coming."
He issued a "sell everything" recommendation just 41 days before the stock market crash of 1987. Then he told investors to get fully invested again several weeks later, just in time for the recovery.
He called the Gulf War of 1990 "a turning point for U.S. stocks." The Dow subsequently began a bull market that didn't end for nearly ten years.
He told subscribers in 1995 that the NASDAQ would double, and then double again. That's exactly what it did.
Just weeks before the NASDAQ collapsed in 2000, he warned subscribers that tech stocks were dangerously overvalued.
In 2007, he warned subscribers about the coming dollar crisis -- and showed them how to protect themselves.
Personally, Dr. Skousen had me at "Reaganomics will work." But it's nice to
see -- and nicer still for his legions of loyal Forecasts & Strategies subscribers -- that he's continued to call things right ever since.
What's his secret? Well, if I knew, I'd be an investment advisor myself. But I think it begins with grasping the real laws of economics -- not the warmed-over Marxism that today's Wall Street frat boys imbibed with their warmed-over beer on the morning of their Econ 101 finals.
The "bottom line," as they say? Don't let Democrats run the country. And don't let Wall Street frat boys manage your investments. Do it yourself, with the genuinely expert guidance of freedom-loving economist Mark Skousen in Forecasts & Strategies.
Click here to learn more.
Sincerely,
Ann Coulter
P.S. Mark has just revealed his 7 "secret" strategies to make you 50% Richer in the next two years. I urge you to take a look at what Mark Skousen has to offer and get the full details on Forecasts & Strategies today.
Click here to learn more.
RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
RBS warning: Be prepared for a 'nasty' period
Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.
# RBS alert: Quotes from the report
# Fund managers react to RBS alert
# Support for the euro is in doubt
RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets.
"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names.
"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.
RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.
"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.
US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest and lenders cut off credit.
The authorities cannot respond with easy money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said.
# Morgan Stanley warns of catastrophe
# More comment and analysis from the Telegraph
"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.
Kit Jukes, RBS's head of debt markets, said Europe would not be immune. "Economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire. The ECB is hell-bent on raising rates.
"The political fall-out could be substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB. Wider spreads between the German Bunds and peripheral markets seem assured," he said.
Ultimately, the bank expects the oil price spike to subside as the more powerful force of debt deflation takes hold next year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrbs118.xml
...You don't understand! I coulda had class. I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am.. Marlon Brando 'On the Waterfront'.
thanks for the heads up...
BYRG.PK is coming off of a bottom. Chart looks really solid on this one. BYRG is making aqustions to increase thier bottom line. Parent company is canadian trades under CWQ.V
out on the open AMD 7.57. This market is schizo... LOL
Filled as well on my solar stocks. 100% CASH!
...You don't understand! I coulda had class. I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am.. Marlon Brando 'On the Waterfront'.
crazy week got stopped out of UEX.to & bought back into AMD. Still holding solar sector stocks Fwiw
nice move on UEX.to, got stopped out of APV.to, CSIQ up 5% & LDK even steven for the day
I'm a buyer here. LDK, CSIQ, APV.to Got filled on Friday. Am a little surprised. But what the heck - gotta make some money somehow & I really don't care how I do it.
I bought all of them on Friday as well as the U stocks.
FNV.to warrant hasn't been filled yet. I'm sitting @ 3.90ish so I hope to be filled on the next correction. I really want those shares FWIW only
Selected Solar stocks are interesting:
Here's a list, quite a few of them have had some sweet moves the last couple of weeks. Some are in a ABC type of correction. Which suggests to me that Solar is still hot Hot HOT <g>
AKNS
AMAT
APV.TO - nice continuation triangle in play. Ready to explode. Probably up but a chance of maybe down.
CSIQ
CSUN
CY.N
DSTI
ENER
ESLR
FSLR
HOKU
JASO
LDK.N
SOL.N
SOLF
SPWR
STP.N
TIM.TO
TSL.N
WFR.N
YGE.N
Well it looks like I was right about UEX.to after all. Usually I'm early by a week or two. That is something that I'm trying hard to work on.
Anyway bought back UEX.to @$4.10 & MGA.to $2.54
AMD looking weak so I sold it @ 7.14 for a 10% gain over a 10 day period. I second guess myself sometimes... If I was a little smarter I would've been out around 7.35 oh well <sigh>
This is a thread to discuss the TA merits of Stocks that trade on a variety of senior exchanges, preferably with a minimum volume of 50,000 for the TSE & AMEX; & 200,000 shares average volume for the NYSE, NASDAQ.
I rarely play the CDNX... but I have no choice in the current market enviroment... (resource friendly), note these stocks are thinly traded & one must always use limit orders & sit on the bid or ask for days or weeks in order to get a fill.
As of this date January 14/06, resource stocks have been flying, in many cases doubling or tripling in a couple of days or less. Amazing how things change. Looks like were in a very speculative bull market in that exchange.
High risk IMO but sometimes very high reward.
Please do not post OTC American stocks. (ie: Nasdaq pink sheets)
I am a novice chart reader giving opinions that I hope will help me and others learn some more about Technical Analysis.
Sometimes I'm right, most of the time I'm wrong. Which is why I use stops. Mental, physical or otherwise...depending on the liquidity <g/ng>
**********************************************************************************************************************************
My typical charts now show the following indicators:
Candle Chart - a candle price chart used in conjunction with
Moving Averages (on the Price Chart) - I have been using a 5 X 21 day EMA moving average.
Moving Average crosses, either of the daily price over various MA's, or of each other, are often significant. Note that I like to work in three different periods, monthly, weekly, daily or weekly, daily, hourly. With confirmation ideally in all 3 time periods, but I am comfortable with two time frame confirmations (higher risk though...)
ADX - the ADX line (heavy black) is used to establish whether a strong trend (rising ADX) or a weakening, non-trending period is in effect for that particular chart.
In trending (rising) periods, trend following indicators (MACD and MA's) are perhaps more valuable.
In non-trending (under 20) or possibly flat or falling periods, oscillating indicators (Stochastics for example) may be more appropriate to use.
+DI, -DI (within the ADX section) - these lines are indications of buying &/or selling strength
It may be useful to use a cross of the +DI over the -DI as a buy signal in conjunction with other indicators, and to use the opposite cross as a sell signal or as a possible short.
MACD - See above re: use in a trending market (see ADX: above 20)
Stochastic - For an oscillating or a non-trending market (see ADX: below 20) market.
OBV- an indicator of the strength of money flow into or out of a stock over a period of time.
Occasionally I will post Pnf (point & figure) charts, along with detailed explanations, in conjunction with the other charts.
Example of a PnF chart :
Example of a typical (daily)up trending chart with my favorite indicators
and 3yr weekly
Please enjoy, learn, and contribute.
Regards,
Peter
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