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Sure Things, longshots, and mistakes

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Last Post: 3/7/2014 9:53:47 PM - Followers: 6 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 0

This is a board about the best stocks of all. The ones you know, either short term or long term, are sure things. Post the stock or stocks you know are going to make money and your estimate on the time frame. Two weeks, two days or years, depending on the catalyst for growth involved. Give your best price forecast too. It's also about the longshots, the stocks that make up the majority of penny stocks. These are longshots because of poor past performance, mis-management or lack of information. They in no way can be called a sure thing, but still have potential for enormous returns. Post about the longshots that you believe are about to rise and why. Finally, post about your mistakes. If we can figure out which kinds of stocks to stay away from, we can maximize our returns on the best stocks.

SURE THINGS

Advanced Cell (ACTC) 11/23/11 .1043 The day after ACTC holds a press conference announcing that their treatment has restored vision in a woman with macular degenerative disease, the stock price will open over a dollar and go up from there.  I believe that they have already proven beyond a doubt that they restored vision in blind mice, and they are about to prove that treating macular degenerative disease with embryonic stem cells does the same thing in humans, and is safe.

LONGSHOTS



Marina Biotech (MRNA) 11/27/12 .51 Just signed a deal with Monsanto for $1.5 million upfront to allow Monsanto to use their patented chemical and delivery technology.  The market cap is currently $8.2 million, so MRNA could be well undervalued if the technology proves to be useful for giant chemical company.  
 
International Stem Cell Corporation (ISCO) 05/01/12 $.45 The CEO recently sank $5,000,000 of his own money into the company, which is currently working on treatments for neurological diseases using it's parthenogenic stem cell technology.  It is also working on treatment for skin/wrinkle repair through a subsidiary and a research tool called an orb that basically allows researchers to test various aspects of the eye.  With a current market cap of $39.2 million, this is another hedge towards stem cell science, which may play a central role in the future of medicine.

Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) 11/23/11 $.37 The only thing stopping me from calling this a sure thing is the price action, which is kind of important when considering a stock purchase.  The stock continues to trend down even though the study results on their brain treatment have been very impressive.  Another positive is the three year chart showing three spikes to $1.50 and above over that time span.  On the negative side, the last such spike was over a year ago.  I think NWBO will get approved to treat brain cancer, and the approval will result in a ten-fold increase in the stock price.

Multicell Technologies Inc. (MCET) 09/06/11 .008  MCET is a fully reporting biotech company that is working on treatments for neurological disease, liver disease and cancer.  With a market cap of 6.1 million,  a successful treatment in any of these indications will send the price logarithmically higher.  Money as usual is the challenge for MCET.  They need to find a successful treatment to survive.

Acusphere (ACUS) 08/17/11 .085  Acusphere was rejected by the FDA for their diagnostic process to diagnose heart disease.  This treatment appears to be a less dangerous and better method to examine heart arteries for disease.  The FDA wasn't convinced, but with $10,000,000 in financing already secured, ACUS has the funds to try again.

MISTAKES

ENSL 07/23/12 .0049 Ouch again.  I don't think this one is a bargain anymore, even at this meager price.  Maybe worth a shot if it falls to .0001 or .0002.

ENSL 05/01/12 .007 Ouch.  I need to remember to listen to the bells and whistles in my head telling me to sell the next time I think about sticking with a sure thing after it doubles.  It's easy to get caught up in the upside when a stock is rising and resist hitting the sell button, but that's not a winning strategy.  Lesson learned.

CSBR 09/10/11  .85  Bought in at 1.05.  My second sure thing mistake.  Ouch.  I thought Dr Sidransky would have CSBR to $4.00 or $5.00 by now at least.  They're still losing money and have abandoned drug candidates altogether.

WOLV 09/10/11 .0355 Bought in at .061.  Made a nice triple on this the first time it ran.  I was sure it would run again.  They can't seem to find that copper.  Not sure if there is any at this point.

IRBS 09/10/11 .04  Bought in at .08.  I loved the combo of a potential drug candidate and the tiny float.  I think this will fly some day on exciting results.   It wouldn't take much, but seven months later, nothing at all...

BMOD 09/10/11 .0146 Bought in the .08 range, shoulda, coulda, woulda made a nice neat triple but I held out for more believing that their trial would succeed.  It didn't.

AAVG 09/10/11  .0026 Bought in at .0031, averged down but eventually sold for a loss. I still think this company is legit, but I'm putting my money where there is more long-term potential.

IFRS 09/10/11 .0039  Bought in at .0048.  Should have scrutinized this more closely before buying in.  The science sounded compelling, but upon further review, it's a little too mystical for me.

FRMC 04/01/11 .015  Lost about 50% on this.  This has basically become a shell.  I let myself get duped by the CEO who had nice credentials.  Now it appears to be a shell.

SRSP 04/01/11 .0011 Done with shells.  Lost about 50%.  My great shell experiment is officially over.

AASP 12/20/10 .22  I read too much into the transaction involving Andre Agassi.  It doesn't appear to be heading towards a merger with anything big any time soon. 

SOON 11/22/10  Uncle!!!!  This one is taking way too long.  This was either a giant waste of time or I gave up too soon.  Just typing about this stock is making me sleepy....ZZZZZZZZZZZ

ASPE 10/26/10  I still have a few of these.  No more following shell facilitators.  It puts my account to sleep.

ICNB 10/26/10  This is my second worst mistake to date, dropping from the .20s to .003.  Another case of buying an overvalued company way too soon.  I may add this to the longshot list again, as it might be a good value at this point.

AFPW, MCET, NSMG 10/26/10  Good examples of bad value buys.  I (obviously) liked the angle on all three of these, but I should have looked closer at the chart and OS and waited for a better entry.  All three of these are down over 90% from where I originally bought in.

RNER, UPHN, RXEI 10/26/10  I'm done with shells except for a select few.  I lost on all three of these (around 20% each).  From now on I'll play only shells that have dropped a long way and appear to be aggressively trying to get back to being an operating company.  Easier said than done.

GERS 2/22/10 Bought at .021, currently at .0003, this is my worst pick, hopefully ever.  I'm a sucker for this company because it was one of my best trades in 2006 and it has a compelling technology for ethanol/biodiesel production.  This has to be a strong candidate for the worst public company ever.  They use a combination of reverse splits and dilution to efficiently reduce every shareholder dollar to fractions of pennies.

CGCA 12/15/09 .45  Sold this one for a loss months ago.  Not sure what will ever come of this, but there are way better opportunities out there.

 LEHPQ 05/25/09 $3.00  Lost a little on this one.  I think the capital trust preferreds are the best way to play the Lehman Q stocks.  This is a traditional preferred.

THNK 05/15/09 .006 (bought at .01) Again, was fortunate to make a small profit on my investment by selling half of my investment before the company announced they were filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy.   I thought that the company would survive their tough times and bounce back, but they packed it in.

TMXU 05/15/09 My first sure thing loser.  I actually made money on this, but only because I averaged down and sold before the reverse split.  I had a chance for a huge return, but sold too early.  I made about 20%, but the play was a loser because Cagan Mcafee threw a curveball by issuing an enormous reverse split of 2001 to 1.  Up to this point I think their largest reverse split had been 100 to 1.  The stock has yet to be bought up like previous CM plays, perhaps due to the struggling economy.  The stock is currently at $10.50 ( a split adjusted .005)

CYRD a mistake and a success at the same time.  Sold for a nice profit, but had I held onto it, it would have made my year- it went from .002 to a high of .20 and I could have easily sold all in the teens.

WSTN Sold out for about a 50% loss.  May buy back at a later date, but I didn't research this thoroughly enough.  The upside is that the insiders aren't selling shares, which was attractive.  But what I failed to understand was that the insiders lost a lot of their property due to bankruptcy.  They aren't communicating much, so it's hard to figure out what they own. 

LFGRQ 09/23/09  Not really a mistake for me because I sold for a small gain, but it was a longshot that failed because the company announced that common shares were worthless.  It looked as though there would be cash left over for commons, but apparently not.   Take home message:  BK stocks are complicated and information can be limited or misleading.  Be very selective.

TWLO (JZ) With a drop from $1.40 to .025, I have to put it in the mistake column.  John Liviakis removed it from his list of company's corporate portfolio at http://www.liviakis.com on or around 9/11/2008 which is the same time of the large volume sales that dropped the price.

PREVIOUS LONGSHOT WINNERS

ACTC 11/23/11 .03  My longest holding longshot more than tripled from 12/31/08 and reached a 9x at it's highest point.  No longer a longshot.

CTNO 04/01/11 .008  Made a little money trading this when it quadrupled in price last fall.  Done with shells.

Sold SNOH for a slight gain. I'm purging my account of almost all of my shells.  It was an experiment that put my account in sleep mode.

Sold GUGO for a slight gain. It's currently at .23 where I bought in at.  I sold in the .20s and the .30s.  I may be giving up on this too soon, but this company is just too quiet to know for sure.

Sold LHHMQ at .35 (bought at .15).  I wanted to re-enter at .15, now it sits around .05.  I'm not sure now.  Definitely could run again, but I have the feeling these shares will end up worthless, so I'll likely pass. I'm completely out of the Lehman trusts.

Sold WOLV at .17 and .06.  It was a little more than a double.  I'll look for a re-entry if it drops substantially.  It appears that there will be some dilution coming as the mining is slower than expected.

Sold AVXT on the way up and back down to .048 (started at .023).  The bounce was what I hoped for but like WOLV, the trial appears to be slower than anticipated.  I'll look to re-enter if it goes back to the .01s.

Sold CYCA in the .0015 range and the .0028 range.  This has repeatedly now bounced off the low .001 range, so it's tempting to look for an entry there again.  Started at .0007.

 Sold CEMJQ  It ran from .047 to today's high of .48.  Wish I could say I held it all the way, but I didn't.  Still a very nice play.  We may be getting the opportunity of a lifetime with some of the high quality companies that have come to visit pennyland in 2009.  Update: CEMJQ reached a high of 1.71 on 2/01/10.

sold ISVG for a double.  I'm down to a handful of shells.  They tend to pay off, but very slowly.  Update: This reached .005, which was about a 20 bagger from where I bought it.

Sold RNNM for a very slight profit.  It was a good learning experience for me.  Reverse splits aren't always profit killers.  Update: this crashed and burned after I sold and is currently at .14.  I held this too long anyway.  After the reverse split I was given a gift and had a chance to get out about 20x pre-split value.  Usually, take the money and run unless it's an unbelievable opp., which this wasn't.

Sold PIHN, PTAH and CFON.  It was a wash, made quite a bit on PTAH, lost on PIHN and CFON.  I just decided to move on to better looking plays.  Update: PTAH quintupled after I sold it, CFON hasn't budged much, and PIHN crashed into the trip zeroes and is extremely diluted. 

CGGP 06/06/08 .0003 Sold for a 20% profit 06/30/08

CYRD 06/06/08 .003 At this price, I think this is a decent longshot. I sold all of my shares in the .008 range and made about 60% on my investment.  We'll see if I gave up too soon. 08/07/08.  Yes I did - see mistakes.

FRTL 07/02/08 .015 I don't have a price target yet.  Sold @ .07 07/07/08.  What a beauty! Another great pick by The Rainmaker

Opexa Therapeutics (OPXA) .49 06/25/09 With a market cap of $6 miillion, this biotech is also worth a flier.  Out 8/10/09 at @$2.14.  Memo to self:  find more tiny biotechs with good intellectual property.  Update: OPXA hit over $6.00 just after I sold.  Another memo to self:  momo usually takes a stock way higher than justified levels.  But all in all, I think it's usually better to take the money and run.

PREVIOUS SURE THING WINNERS

TGEN 12/20/2010  Not sure where this is heading, but I'll take the 40% (almost) gain and move on.  TGEN has recently announced a merger with a company developing a phage treatment as an alternative to antibiotics.  This means the share count will multiply from 20 million to perhaps 100 million.  The phage therapy sounds intriguing so I'll continue to watch from the sideline.

ENSL 05/18/11 Reached my target price of .09 in less than a month for a double.  Ah if I could double my money in a month for, oh, 18 straight months...

 

PostSubject
#152   sold MRNA at $1.24. lefty18 03/07/14 09:53:47 PM
#151   Added MRNA to the longshots list. lefty18 11/27/12 05:56:35 PM
#150   After reading up on ENSL last weekend, I lefty18 07/23/12 09:41:10 PM
#149   Great day for NWBO. They received $5,000,000 lefty18 05/01/12 11:56:41 AM
#148   Added ENSL to the mistakes list. lefty18 05/01/12 11:54:00 AM
#147   Added ISCO to the longshots. lefty18 05/01/12 11:33:31 AM
#146   Oops, I was going to add ACTC to lefty18 01/23/12 01:41:14 PM
#145   Updated ACTC. lefty18 12/08/11 03:16:51 PM
#144   Added ACTC to the Sure things list. lefty18 11/23/11 06:20:52 PM
#143   Added ACTC to the winners list. lefty18 11/23/11 06:15:45 PM
#142   Added NWBO to the longshots list. lefty18 11/23/11 05:56:33 PM
#141   Added WOLV, CSBR, AAVG, BMOD, IRBS and IFRS lefty18 09/10/11 09:36:54 PM
#140   Added MCET to the longshot list. lefty18 09/06/11 09:22:43 PM
#139   Added ACUS to the longshot list. lefty18 08/17/11 01:31:15 PM
#138   added info in IFRS. Seriously considering an lefty18 08/07/11 09:23:19 PM
#137   Added IFRS to the list of longshots. lefty18 08/04/11 08:59:48 PM
#136   AAVG had a solid run, looks like its C.C. 08/02/11 06:18:59 PM
#135   I take it you sold your AAVG. lefty18 08/02/11 05:26:31 PM
#134   you should really check out PGIE. this thing winnerboi 08/02/11 11:08:14 AM
#133   Looking for the next one. I'll let lefty18 08/01/11 07:04:17 PM
#132   I'm in PGIE...not for 5 day runner, but winnerboi 08/01/11 12:32:50 PM
#131   What's your next 5 day runner? lefty18 08/01/11 12:04:16 PM
#130   18 days happened lol winnerboi 07/29/11 12:02:05 PM
#129   Oh no! Whaa happen to SAVW?????? lefty18 07/29/11 11:54:48 AM
#128   I see AAVG going up. I still lefty18 07/26/11 08:29:14 PM
#127   Can we get an update on your opinion C.C. 07/25/11 10:59:26 AM
#126   It's a great step chubby. Looking more lefty18 07/13/11 12:16:00 PM
#125   AAVG- With the uplisting going into effect 7/13/2011, C.C. 07/12/11 10:00:07 PM
#124   SAVW BREAKOUT winnerboi 07/11/11 09:04:04 AM
#123   Good luck to you too! If you wolverine02 07/09/11 07:09:06 PM
#122   Good luck Wolv! I just pulled my lefty18 07/09/11 05:18:36 PM
#121   We are definately at an important level on wolverine02 07/09/11 05:16:02 PM
#120   Wow, look at the 20 year chart on lefty18 07/09/11 05:15:18 PM
#119   Thanks for that extensive recap wolv. My lefty18 07/09/11 05:08:45 PM
#118   Their filing is available on OTCmarkets.com as far wolverine02 07/09/11 04:54:40 PM
#117   ADSV a few ask slaps takes this one honest dave 07/09/11 04:17:48 PM
#116   ADSV a few ask slaps takes this one honest dave 07/09/11 04:17:39 PM
#115   Some early sticking points in my DD. lefty18 07/09/11 04:08:01 PM
#114   SAVW Weekly chart and DD post - Longs wolverine02 07/09/11 03:57:00 PM
#113   SAVW does look tempting. Can you give lefty18 07/09/11 02:55:56 PM
#112   I still don't know enough about the company lefty18 07/09/11 10:37:12 AM
#111   What is your take on AAVG? Chart is C.C. 07/08/11 11:50:59 PM
#110   SAVW is on FIRE!!! JUMP ON BOARD!!! winnerboi 07/08/11 10:53:35 AM
#109   Added AAVG to the longshots. lefty18 07/05/11 10:32:51 AM
#108   Added ENSL to the sure thing winners. lefty18 05/19/11 01:28:46 AM
#107   Upgraded ENSL to a sure thing. lefty18 04/22/11 08:15:37 PM
#106   If you sold FRMC then you did make konantroutman 04/02/11 02:04:09 PM
#105   Added CTNO to the list of longshot winners. lefty18 04/02/11 11:06:18 AM
#104   Added ENSL and BMOD to the list of longshots. lefty18 04/02/11 10:39:51 AM
#103   :-) lefty18 03/23/11 08:31:04 PM
PostSubject