Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)

[surf1944]

9:04AM Supernus Pharma announces release of 'exciting' new clinical data on Trokendi XR; concentration-time profile of once-daily SPN-538 was associated with significantly less negative impact on COWA despite PK bioequivalence to b.i.d. TPM-IR on all standard PK parameters (SUPN) 6.88 : Rationale: Dose-management strategies improve the tolerability of TPM, a potent, broad-spectrum AED that can cause distinctive cognitive symptoms (e.g., word-finding difficulty). Neuropsychometric tests have shown significant negative changes, especially in verbal fluency, in a relatively small subset of patients receiving TPM-IR. SPN-538 (Trokendi XR, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) is a novel extended-release, once-daily capsule formulation of TPM that may improve tolerability and adherence. In a crossover study in healthy volunteers establishing bioequivalence of once-daily SPN-538 to b.i.d. TPM-IR (200 mg/day), effects of treatments on cognitive function were compared.

Results: In the per-protocol analysis of all subjects with data, COWA change scores favored once-daily SPN-538 over b.i.d. TPM-IR at all test points; differences were significant at 50 (P=0.05) and 100 mg/day and for the entire treatment period. Subjects with moderate/severe negative COWA changes: TPM-IR, 42%; SPN-538, 12%. Similar patterns for DSST changes did not reach statistical significance.

Conclusion: Based on the per-protocol analysis of COWA change scores, the concentration-time profile of once-daily SPN-538 was associated with significantly less negative impact on COWA despite PK bioequivalence to b.i.d. TPM-IR on all standard PK parameters, similar Cavg0-24, and nearly identical mean TPM concentrations when cognitive function tests were performed 18 and 10 hrs after Tmax. Once-daily SPN-538 produces more consistent TPM plasma concentrations due to a markedly slower absorption rate.

[onkelhubert]

the spread is amusing today. 33cents, then 18cents, now 20cents. looks like nobody is willing to sell below $7. depending on Q's data this could spark an enormous short squeeze.

[TonyJoe1957]

Back in with some Jun 14 calls at an $8 strike...only about 20 (2K shares), so far. I did quite well on the other SUPN calls and took my profit, when I got nervous about the Dec expiration.

I have done options before, but, historically, I would win on one and lose on another, and just break even. Lately, I have been doing well.

[onkelhubert]

again or just the dec calls you bought this summer?

[TonyJoe1957]

I bought some calls.

[onkelhubert]

FBR Capital starts SUPN with outperform and PT $12

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Upgrades-Downgrades/Initiated/2013/10/30

[onkelhubert]

the takedown from the 7.30s to below $6 was on light volume and the short interest has grown to 5.18M shares or 37.4% of the float. ER on 11/13/13 will be a big day either way. if the results and most important the guidance is as good as i expect it to be, we'll really have some firworks here. just my 2 cents.

[onkelhubert]

we need some volume flowing in here. a sudden break through the $7 resistance and i expect SUPN to pop hard. a little spark of news would light it up...

[onkelhubert]

short interest has grown nearly 50% since 07/31/2013.
now 4.46M shares or 32.2% float.

when SUPN pops, it will pop pretty hard.

[jembers]

Would be nice to see some buyers step in today.

[smdjls]

We just need some buyers. Everyone seems to be sitting on the sideline this morning watching.

[IWillBeSpokenOf]

If we close green today the chart should trigger technical buyers to cover their short positions! Also may send a buy rating to SUPN through sites like American Bulls. This will be a good week for us!!!

[onkelhubert]

SUPN..$6.99 Deutsche Bank Conference Presentation slides from May 30th.
bit.ly/12pSx1M

[IWillBeSpokenOf]

I am expecting a significant increase either at the end of the day, or early next week. My assumption is that a couple large buys will spook the shorts, and they will all rush to cover. When this happens a nice spike will form. We will consolidate in the mid to high $7 region, and then slowly start upward movement with the news of the new drug being stocked on shelves.

IMO this will be a great ticker to look at in a year or two. At that point the current PPS will look like pennies!

[smdjls]

Zacks see around 26% from Wednesdays close somewhere between $8.50 and $9.00 short term. With the right momo even higher imho.




This is our short term rating system that serves as a timeliness indicator for stocks over the next 1 to 3 months. How good is it? See rankings and related performance below.
Zacks Rank Definition Annualized Return
#1 Strong Buy 26.41%
#2 Buy 18.61%
#3 Hold 10.05%
#4 Sell 4.17%
#5 Strong Sell 2.03%
S&P 500 9.95%

[TonyJoe1957]

PPS target?

[onkelhubert]

wouldn't be surprised to see some other positive analyst ratings ahead. SUPN is very undervalued at this levels, IMO.
regarding their strong financial position, their expected fast launch (done by the same sales force that are currently selling Oxtellar and gettin' more experienced each working day) and their alternative pipeline, it's ridiculous to hover around the same PPS as it has been before approval.

hopefully we move up in the right direction from now on. i decided to hold my shares (average $6.30) longer as i initially wanted, because of the value i see here.

GL

[smdjls]

Strong buy given yesterday the 22nd!

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/107208/zacks-1-rank-additions-for-wednesday

[smdjls]

Zacks upgrade to Strong Buy

http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/SUPN?q=supn

[TonyJoe1957]

Thank you for pointing this out. Below is from 13D:

OPI II August 19, 2013 487,200 $7.77(11)
OPI IIQP August 19, 2013 190,500 $7.77(11)

[onkelhubert]

first sc 13d/a out. orbimed reduced position in the last few weeks. they sold around 1M shares. around 600k were sold 08/19/2013.

[onkelhubert]

not lately. news trumps TA.

[SkeBallLarry]

In @ $6.67 .. !

[onkelhubert]

oh boy. 600k shares @$6.65. that's $3.99M. now we're talking.

[TonyJoe1957]

Has TA been working for this stock?

[onkelhubert]

ok. the gap is finally closed. and now...??

[TonyJoe1957]

God must really hate me. I am holding 400 Dec calls at a $7 strike and, sure, I was green, but why can't I be rich instead of sooooo darned good looking.

[onkelhubert]

hard to believe. they nearly closed that big gap in one session. i'm just amused. that's no sell-the-news. that is really manipulation. 100 shares after 100 shares sold to the bid, and if the bid did get stronger, there were some big blocks thrown into it.
i really would love to know the short numbers after todays session.

[TonyJoe1957]

I can wait. I am green and the $7 strike price calls do not expire until December. I am holding 400 of them, and I am very, very greedy.

[IWillBeSpokenOf]

30X daily average volume today coupled with being added to the Nasdaq gainers watch list says to me that this is getting a lot of attention this week. Attention is what this company needs to have the PPS pop. With only roughly 93Mil O/S and the majority being held by institutions this shouldn't need much more to pop to the $12 area where it was last year.

[TonyJoe1957]

This stock tends to dip after the open and recover before the close, but I don't know about today. I must admit, I glance at the stock PPS, from time to time, and it looks like it is manipulated in both directions. Guess payday might not be today.

[onkelhubert]

just looked up the may 2013 presentation:

SUPN

peak sales are expected to get much higher. they should be more than $400M each by 2018. they expect to be break even by the end of 2014.
really undervalued, imo.

if she manages to break $7.50 again, we should see a strong finish.

[surf1944]

7:30AM Supernus Pharma announces final FDA approval and upcoming launch of Trokendi (SUPN) 6.64 : CO received final approval from the FDA or Trokendi XR, a novel once-daily extended release formulation of topiramate for the treatment of epilepsy. The company expects to launch the product and for it to be available in pharmacies over the next few weeks. The approval letter states that the FDA has completed its review of the application and that Trokendi XR is approved effective August 16, 2013 for use as recommended in the agreed-upon labeling. The FDA granted a waiver for certain pediatric study requirements and a deferral for submission of post-marketing pediatric pharmacokinetic assessments that are due in 2019 followed by clinical assessments in 2025.

[onkelhubert]

with share price now @$7.30 they are worth $225.5M with two approved drugs. each should have peak sales around $250M. cash and marketable securities were $102M at 06/30/2013.

heavy undervalued, imo. that's why i'm holding too, but it's hard to see the selling so far.

[TonyJoe1957]

I decided to hold...for now. I tried to examine the PPS history of this stock and agree with your comment on MM control. This stock tends to drift up for several days after positive news announcements.

[onkelhubert]

reminds me on RMTI after their P3 announcement in july. seems to be in full MM control. if they let her go and she breaks $8 with volume, we will fly to $10 pretty fast. it doesn't has to happen today - RMTI rocketed the next two days after the announcement.

3M short is a lot of shares...

[TerribleTwit]

Still shorting it lowjack ?

[TonyJoe1957]

I have not had any big winners for a few years. Holding 400 $7 strike Dec calls. Hoping today is payday. 3M shares short. I hope to see at least 6M shares trade today.

[onkelhubert]

added 600 more @7.06. looks like good news are comming and SUPN possibly can manage to break through the $7.00 resistance. volume is pretty low though. if it picks up, we may have a runner here.

[surf1944]

8:04AM Supernus Pharma announces Paragraph IV ANDA filing for Oxtellar XR (SUPN) 6.27 : SUPN announced that on June 26, 2013 the Company received a Paragraph IV Notice Letter from Watson Laboratories advising Supernus of the filing by Watson of an Abbreviated New Drug Application seeking approval for oxcarbazepine extended-release tablets. Supernus is currently reviewing the details of this Notice Letter and intends to vigorously enforce its intellectual property rights relating to Oxtellar XR. The product is currently protected by two issued patents that are listed in the FDA's Orange Book.

[Lowjack]

worth $4.14 or less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! short!

[ciadude2]

Excellent reversal so far today.

[samcavr]

Looks like it didn't break that resistance today. But looks like its getting close to breaking through. One of the few that is green on my watch list on red market day

[ciadude2]

I agree. Hoping that approval comes soon, then it'll really go green :)

[samcavr]

Has touched 7.08-7.10 a few times this past week and a half. Hopefully can break through this resistance today

[surf1944]

upernus to Present at Two Investor Conferences
Press Release: Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – Mon, May 20, 2013 4:30 PM EDT

ROCKVILLE, Md., May 20, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN), a specialty pharmaceutical company, today announced that the Company's management will present an overview of the Company at the following investor conferences in May and June 2013:
Deutche Bank Conference:
Presentation Date: Thursday, May 30th
Time: 2:50 PM ET
Place: The Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel- Boston, MA

Jefferies Conference:
Presentation Date: Tuesday, June 4th
Time: 10:00 AM ET
Place: Grand Hyatt New York- New York, NY
About Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing products for the treatment of central nervous system, or CNS, diseases. The Company has one approved product for epilepsy, Oxtellar XRTM (extended release oxcarbazepine), and one tentatively approved product for epilepsy, Trokendi XRTM (extended release topiramate). The Company is also developing several product candidates in psychiatry to address large market opportunities in ADHD, including ADHD patients with impulsive aggression. These product candidates include SPN-810 for impulsive aggression in ADHD and SPN-812 for ADHD.

Contact:
Jack A. Khattar, President and CEO
Gregory S. Patrick, Vice President and CFO
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Tel: [phone]

[onkelhubert]

works nicely so far. i see some bigger resistances @ $7, $7.5, $8 and then a gap to 10 on the daily chart. guess now the move should slow down a bit, cause of reaching the $7s area. GLTA

[onkelhubert]

bought 1400 shares @$5.94 today. will give it a chance. broke SMA50 yesterday on nice volume and holding steady so far. company expects to hear about full approval in july.

[surf1944]

9:01AM Supernus Pharma Prices Offering of $75 Million of 7.50% Convertible Senior Secured Notes Due 2019 (SUPN) 4.51 : Co announced the pricing of its offering of $75.0 mln aggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Secured Notes due 2019 in a private offering. Supernus expects that the net proceeds from this offering of Convertible Notes will be ~$72.0 mln, after deducting initial purchasers' discounts and estimated offering expenses payable by Supernus. Supernus intends to use ~$21.0 mln of the net proceeds to repay in full its borrowings under and terminate its secured credit facility and the remainder of the net proceeds to fund the commercialization of its approved and tentatively approved drugs, Oxtellar XR and Trokendi XR, to continue development of its pipeline products and for other general corporate purposes.

[surf1944]

4:36PM Supernus Pharma Director discloses buying 35K shares at $5.11-5.68 on 3/20-3/22, worth ~$200K (SUPN) 5.56 -0.32

http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1356576.htm