Strategy Central

[CaribbeanJim]

A couple other intermediate-term bullish indicators are:
1. Dow/Gold Ratio is at the bottom of bottom of its channel line
2. DJIA Bullish Percent Index ($bpindu) is bouncing up from being below 20.

Many other bullish indicators, too numerous for this note.

I'm seeing the light.



Jan 4 - We have transitioned into a bear market. Completely different rules apply.
May 23 - IMO, any price at/above this close makes a great Nasdaq/SP500 short.

[mr_cassandra]

In the years I've tracked it, its most commonly associated with IT bottoms. Like all indicators, not laser precise but generically useful.

[capt_jmj]

Steve - So, is this a contrarian indicator, saying that a bottom is in, or the harbinger of more pain for Longs?

[mr_cassandra]

Net new lows at rare lowlevels

This is an offshoot of original facintaion with contrarian indicators sparked decades ago by Marty Zweigs book 'winning on wall st'. Marty was a frequent guest on wall st week years ago and covered advisor sentiment, invented the put call ratio and talked about several other contrarian signs like new lows. The point being on all of them: when everyone is the most discouraged, it turned out to be time to buy.

Back in the day, IBD used to sell an awesome 25 yer chart with those and more tracked along side the major averages so you could see the inverse relationshsip.

Anyway, I took it a step further to creat <net> new lows. Briefly put I subtract new lows from new highs and divide the result by the total actives. My reasoning was two fold.
1. 10 new highs and 300 new lows is worse than 100 new highs and 300 new lows.
2. 300 new lows versys 3000 actives is worse than 300 new lows versus 6000 actives.

Example chart $nyhl:$nytot (make sure to put a colon : between the two symbols at stockcharts.com and also use the 3 year setting for perspective.

Long story short, we are at low levels seen only on 9 days in the last ten years overall.

[mr_cassandra]

Correct Gleno, as stated in the files 1-8 at the site, along with appropriate cautions about leverage.

[glennob]

MVP

That is using a two times ETF which is MVV and MZZ, and plus doubling it again using margin at times. Is this correct? This would make it 4 times leverage.

[mr_cassandra]

MVP-3 update: 221% in real-time last 14.5 months

This number is NET of all C2 fees back to day one in May 2007.
It includes every losing signal and drawdown
It is net of commissions.

This comes out to 181% annualized so far in the real-time , walk-forward test of mvp-3.

These signals are offered as a subscription at www.collective2.com/go/mvp-3

You can see a complete breakdown of every trade in file number 2-real-time

Regards, Steve

[mbcheng]

Sammy, I will do more of 30" chart setup. The chart pattern site gives a good expectation of what tomorrow will be.

[sammy1024]

mbcheng
how have u been doing with futures? what system do u use these days?

[capt_jmj]

John - No, sorry, I don't have a StockCharts subscription. However, this is an interesting concept that I will watch. Since we track the NDX, we found the VXN to be of better utility than VIX, especially for shifting between a two different sets of stops. It is really rather intuitive when you think about it, but in times of high volatility, loss stops should normally be wider and profit stops tighter (i.e. you wait a little longer for the market to turn if your position is down, and if the market does offer you a decent profit, you book it before the market can take it away from you.

[John French]

Capt, see the following links.

http://www.cboe.com/micro/vxv/default.aspx

http://seekingalpha.com/article/76884-vix-to-vxv-ratio-is-giving-a-strong-bearish-signal

If you have a StockCharts subscription I am led to understand that the history for $VXV is available. Please let me know if you do!

Thanks

John

[capt_jmj]

John, I was not familiar with that symbol. What is its particular utility?

[John French]

Capt, VXV - the S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index.

[capt_jmj]

John - VXV or VXN?

[John French]

$VXV historical data.

Has anyone got a link to (or the data contained therein) which simulates the VXV prior to it's offical publication by CBOE in Nov of last year? It's my feeling that someone may have constructed a proxy data set.

Thanks

John

[bobjack]

Be, the charts are current, if you refresh the page, you see current data, tho QQQQ data is delayed by 15 minutes.

[be]

Thanks, 366

Stay alert ! get out if wrong

Some days you've got it & some days you don't. Recognize the "Don't got it Days" & stay out. (omadan)

It is better to take a small loss than to wait for it to become a profitable trade. (Dr. Farooq)

[ajtj99]

tea, that's why even though there are 6-bans on my thread, only 3-individuals are actually banned.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/seebans.asp?board_id=1613

If you click on the bans you can figure it out pretty easily.

In edit, I never wanted to ban anyone, but a few individuals kept disrupting the flow so much that participants were dropping out.

I still do not remove content by deleting posts. That's pretty sacred to me.


http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1613
AJTJ's Market Pulse
Do your own DD. Void where prohibited. Observed side effects include darkening of the stool, spontaneous amputation, and death. Rosebud.

[LP2]

I don't understand
if you don't care, why did you respond?

[capt_jmj]

I really don't care whether you "got it" or not, but FWIW...

http://alt-usage-english.org/excerpts/fxwholec.html

[LP2]

got it...

[capt_jmj]

Perhaps my usage is incorrect. I thought it meant "basically from scratch", i.e. from nothing other than your own ideas.

[LP2]

MVP whole cloth?
could you explain what you mean by "whole cloth"?
I always thought it meant something was based on lies

[capt_jmj]

Not sure how that relates to my original question, but yes, it is good to see Steve's system doing well and for Steve especially to be receiving the much deserved recognition for all his hard work. Creating a workable system out of whole cloth is no easy task.


Kind regards,
-CAPT J

"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"

[kenwong]

capt_jmj: MVP - Now Most Popular C2 System

Would seem to be the case. Meanwhile, regarding issues of more importance that can make each of us rich - Steve's MVP system is THE MOST POPULAR system on Collective2 (see screen capture below - http://tinyurl.com/349xcr ).

Nice going, Steve!

Ken


=================================

Posted by: capt_jmj
Date: Friday, May 30, 2008 5:38:29 PM
In reply to: kenwong who wrote msg# 17546
Post #17547 of 17547

kenwong - I see your old CS friend has become a regular poster on Poker's board. Like Hillary, is she trying to re-invent herself yet again?






.
.
Favorite Charts/Links - http://wongken96815.tripod.com/stockspage.html
"Strategy Central" board - #board-5498
.
.

[capt_jmj]

kenwong - I see your old CS friend has become a regular poster on Poker's board. Like Hillary, is she trying to re-invent herself yet again?

[kenwong]

Subject: HolyGraile Update - MVP (C2 Stats)
.
.

See Below
.
.

Go Steve!
.
.

Collective2.com Link - http://tinyurl.com/372htb
.
.

[mr_cassandra]

Short answer, yes but it raises your time on margin extensively. I sleep better at night doing short margin sorties

[ajtj99]

You are correct, mvp. Better math than mine! <G>

[FreeMarkets]

The only time I got in trouble with your system was when I treated to tweak it myself. I think adding momentum vehicles to your system works better in the long run, but there can be a lot more pain along the way. Sticking to the rules pays off.

Hey, high-level question for you. I should probably ask over on yahoo, but here goes. Someone said that going all in at the beginning of a signal results in higher gains than using pb's. I haven't back-tested it, but those pb's seem to be spot on most of the time. I think you said once they they account for 1/2 the profit, which makes me think the total returns (ignoring risk) are the same. So, which is accurate when it comes to pb returns vs. all-in on day 1?

My real time experience: Use pb's for max return
If pb's give 1/2 the gains: It's a wash
Back-tested: Don't use pb's for max return

Just a high-level answer is fine since I know it has been kicked around a bit. I know that pb's reduce risk a lot, I am just wondering about return.

[mr_cassandra]

see how this looks

you start with 10,000 cash
you invest it all in fully marginable MVV
you then use 10,000 margin to increase your holdings to $20,000 of MVV

MVV then falls in price 26%

$20,000 reduced by 26% is $14,800

you owe $10,00 so your equity is 4,800

$4,800 is 32% of your current holdings value of $14,800

[ajtj99]

MVP, if you are at full margin, your equity is 50% of your position. A 26% drawdown at full margin would take your equity to 24%, bringing a margin call, as it would be below the 30% maintenance requirement.

[mr_cassandra]

Too Funny . You would not believe how many emails I've had over the years looking for exactly that (and they were dead serious).

Someone on wall street or some book has done an amazing job creating and spreading the perfect trades meme.

[mr_cassandra]

Morning aj, the max <<<during>>> the trade drawdown seen so far was 26%. Last time I check that did not come close to the margin maintenance requirement.

[sammy1024]

you can just cut everything in half so u don't use margin. with an original buy use 50 percent of the money and with piggybacks use the other 50 percent. make half the amt but less risk.

[ajtj99]

Never mind my previous post. I figured it out. The in and out trades are aggregated by Collective 2 until the original buy is closed. The total is the number of shares traded in total during the buys, including full margin piggyback trades.

If there is a 20% drawdown, that would trigger a margin call, would it not? I believe you mentioned there was a maximum 20% drawdown at some point in your back-testing.

[FreeMarkets]

You were a few hours off on your sell this time. I am really disappointed. LOL

[ajtj99]

Am I missing something? How can you buy $70k worth of MVV with an account at C2 with like $12k in it? Even at 100% margin you're only at 24K or so.

The numbers posted on C2 probably include piggyback buys, but I'm still stumped at how 1023 shares of MVV could have been purchased. I can't seem to find a way to do it with the money they show in that system account.

[mr_cassandra]

One year report at yahoo group. After this am's fill I'll update the real-time sheet and a powerpoint preentation of the last year.

[fast_eddie]

I am usually trading options, typically priced between $1-$2. Etrade requires that stops be at least 10 cents below the bid, so that effects it somewhat.

For the initial position, I've taken to setting the stop at 20%. Even at that, I've seen the q's options decline that much and then rebound to the plus side within one day.

Once profitable, I'll set a trailing stop at 10 cents below the bid and let it run. When profit gets to 20-30% I start thinking about closing the position.

Hope that helps.

FE

[mr_cassandra]

Thanks. When the current trade closes I have an email to go out to put some perspective on. There will still be occassional losers and drawdowns. The current signal has been totally normal and within system 10 year backtest parameters, but not to be expected every time either.

I perceive times like this as the ones which cry out for perspective, otherwise expectations can get carried away on the upside.

Thanks again, Steve

[FreeMarkets]

Per c2: 267% annualized for mvp!

Don't tell anyone. It's a secret. LOL.

Nice job.

[mr_cassandra]

Net new lows went positive last week, first time since october 2007.

reference $nyhl:$nytot and $amhl:$amtot at stockcharts.com, use 3 year charts for perspective.

[mr_cassandra]

I saw your post at my yahoo group and answered there

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/mvpsignalsystem/

regards, Steve

[mbcheng]

fast_eddie, NERS is a tradable method. I call it a Method, not a system. In order to be a Complete System, it needs to have an "Exit Rule". Maily two elements:

1. Initial stop level, be it a 1%, 2% or 3%.. loss stop.

2. Trailing stop once you have a profit, that is how much money you are willing to bive back, be it 50%, 60% or 90%. Somebody uses Target lock, for example, a profit will be taken once $500 gain is reached.

I am intereseted to know what is your thought about Initial stop and trailing stop. Thanks.

MC

[mbcheng]

Steve, MVP Original Buy Discrepancy:

Steve, There is a different date for Original Buy between your spreadsheet and C2 published signal.

Your spreadsheet Original buy: 1/10/2008

C2 Signal: 1/14/2008

Which date is correct? Thanks.

[fast_eddie]

From the Ners site information box

"Basic rules for NERS can be found in post #35672 #msg-14508055 and #36008 #msg-14653063 Many like the 15 min/48 CCI the best. Nocona and Gloe like the 5 min-144 CCI with confirmation from the cross of the 3 and 8 ema's. See #36602 #msg-14984910 and #36595 #msg-14976195. Also see post #43630 for examples of how we stay in a trade using the NERS trigger lines with the confirmation of the 3/8 ema cross. (See also posts on 11/5/06 for more info.)"

I've been known to disregard the reversal of 3/8 ema cross and the cci(144), thinking that given time, the trade will get on track again. then digging myself too deep a whole and letting Gleno's "hope" indicator take over.

FE

[mbcheng]

fast_eddie, what is your "Exit Rules"? I find that money management is the most important part in trading high leveraged Options or Futures.

[fast_eddie]

With regard to other systems....

I've been following ACTS from C2, via their private site at
http://stocksdoc.com/ACTS/. This is the old moneymachine site. It appears that Footquarters from the Spy ihub board has become associated with it and the signals seem a bit more well thought out than previously. Still the jury is out on the results. Not sure if I'll stay once my subscription expires.

Besides MVP, I follow the NERS group, at
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=2462
There is no cost to that, but you basically trade on your own. I've been using qqqq options, with mixed results. I get burnt when I disregard the exit rules and hold on to bad positions, hoping they will turn around.


Good luck trading

FE

[John French]

That's a good observation there Ken. I am swamped right now but definitely need to sit down and look at the MVP signals with some charts.

Thanks for the pointer.

John