Stocks that Float: TANKERS & DRY BULK SHIPPERS (SHIPPERS)

[Milner]

Thats a whole mixed bag of different shippers. TMM is not a shipping company at all.

TMM is offshore supply sector (mexico) mostly. Grupo TMM

Horizon. is box containers

Free is dry bulk...

Ultr looks like a product carrier refined gasoline and gasoil.

Containers and dry bulk are totally different. You really cant bunch all of those together in one basket.

Navios is a hellenic bulk carrier i am not all that familiar with.

Xanadu mentioned to me Claymore has and ETF named SEA .. Its a fund that has basket of shippers mostly in dry bulk and crude oil shipping. Exchange traded funds are a good way to play this sector if you not all that familiar with exactly what each company does. For instance i dont like DRYS. But i do have stock in Golden Ocean. Some people might say im nuts but i just like them more.

Management is everything in the shipping business. I like Golden Ocean because i think Herman Bilung is an ace and they have great management. They are not traded as of yet in the U.S. and only on the Oslo Bors.

Thats a whole different ballgame altogether because on the Bors you are exposed to the Crown. It fell against the dollar and effected stock prices on the bors.

One thing is for certain its not always smooth sailing in the shipping or maritime sectors. Lets hope for the best...!!!!

[Greencake]

Shipping Stocks Pull Up Anchor


http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/transportation/10461939.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA


A day after DryShips' stock saw a notable lift, its rival Eagle Bulk Shipping's turn to shine.

Eagle Bulk shares were up nearly 30% to $7.11 in midday trading Wednesday, a few hours after the shipping industry got hearty nod from the talking heads on CNBC. A day before, all of the major shipping firms were in the green, and the Baltic Dry Index has risen the most since at least 1985, according to Bloomberg.
The Baltic Dry Index was rising 168 points, or 15%, to 1,316 points. After falling to 663 in early December, it has risen 70% in 2009. It's record high is 11,793 points on May 20.

[MWM]

All Shippers Under $5

[polkamatic]

Shipshape! Thanks...eom

[Greencake]

my pleasure Friend, best of luck


JT

[Greencake]

How does that looks Polkamatic?

.....Hey, I just noticed I forgot to include one of the most prominent shippers....

SB


I'll have to have a newly updated updated version, lol....


Good Luck and TTYS,

JT

[polkamatic]

Yeah, thanks for chart basket! Perhaps we could highlight that to keep it handy?

[blackcat]

Thanks, these are very nice updates! Much appreciated.

[Greencake]

BDI off the bottom nicely.....

... nearly 100 points

http://www.imarex.com/home/bdi_futures_closing_prices
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

[Greencake]

DRYS +23 POINTS

[Greencake]

continuing to get pummeled .... down +13 points today ...

anybody notice the gap UP this morning? lol....


Blue Skies, Green $creens,

JT

[Greencake]

THE SHIPPING SECTOR at a glance..... (UPDATED version)

[Milner]

Morgan Stanley,

I think there are a number of reasons that deal fell through. One of them might have been FRO thinks the spot market is going to rised dramatically at sometime in 09.

They also did a 60 minutes special about oil storage and contango and specifically mentioned Morgan Stanley about a week ago.

That might have drawn too much heat form various critics ...

Who knows why that happened...

[polkamatic]

"Opportunity still knocks for shipping," says accountant
Tuesday, 20 January 2009

UK-based shipping accountant Moore Stephens says that, despite the current economic downturn, shipping is still a good business to be in, and that resourceful investors will find opportunities to expand, or to get back into shipping, over the next twelve months. Julian Wilkinson, head of the Moore Stephens shipping team, says, “Shipping enters 2009 with at least one certainty – the good times are over for now. The easy money has dried up, the old ships have been scrapped or are laid up and there are no prospects of markets going up any time soon. But, in a cyclical industry, sensible players make money whichever way the market moves. For many people in shipping, a sharp downturn in freight rates and ship values is the sound of opportunity knocking, rather than the prospect of a knockout.”
Writing in the firm’s Bottom Line newsletter, Mr Wilkinson explains, “Newbuilding order cancellations are growing quickly, so it is certain that some shipyards will never be built, and others will take a hit. Even the major yards are struggling with finance, and smaller yards trying to get into the market cannot secure guarantee finance. So although steel prices are falling, energy prices are falling, wage expectations are falling and interest rates are falling, it looks like a tough time for shipbuilders in general. The exception will be the major groups and yards in niche areas such as cruise ships, LNG and more complex vessels, which will emerge from the trough having seen lower cost competition die before it could grow.”
“Shipping banks are short of cash to lend and that doesn’t seem likely to change. Although shipping is still a solid big-ticket business, many banks that came into shipping in rosier times will not relish the workouts they will face in 2009, and will walk away. So we can expect to see fewer banks in shipping, lending more carefully, at higher margins and for shorter tenors. Shipowners who have been around for a while will recognise this as a good thing, especially as higher margins will be offset by lower interest rates as interbank rates come more into line with central bank rates.”
He continues: “Every sector will find cashflow a problem. Every sector will struggle with ship valuations and loan covenants. And, inevitably, there will be casualties. But look again and you can see why there is still considerable optimism amongst owners. The lower markets should rein in spiralling crew costs. Scrapping of old tonnage is increasing and will increase faster as the year progresses. And owners have made a lot of money in the last few years, so they are sitting on a lot of equity. Interest rates everywhere have plummeted. Put companies and newbuilding orders in trouble together in the same room as an owner with equity and access to low-rate finance and you see assets moving from an over- exposed and perhaps inefficient owner to a more prudent, solid operator.” “Yes,” concedes Mr Wilkinson, “2009 will be a rough ride for everyone. But those who watch their cashflow and who have not over-extended themselves in the boom, or who sold out before the peak (and there were a lot who did) will see this as a chance to expand, or to buy back into shipping. Whatever is happening in the world, shipping is still a good business to be in.”

Source: Maritime Global Net
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=32750&Itemid=79

[polkamatic]

fyi...Morgan Stanley Said to Cancel Tanker for Oil Storage
Tuesday, 20 January 2009
Morgan Stanley scrapped a deal to hire a supertanker for storing crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico, two people familiar with the situation said. Traders for the bank canceled the booking today, the people said, declining to say why or be identified because the information is private. Bookings need to meet various conditions before they are binding. Carlos Melville, a London-based spokesman for Morgan Stanley, declined to comment. Banks and commodity traders are seeking new ways to make money after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell by the most since 1937 last year and crude oil prices dropped more than $100 a barrel from their peak. Companies including Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Koch Industries Inc. and BP Plc are keeping enough crude at sea to supply the world for almost a day.
Frontline Ltd., the world’s biggest owner of supertankers, said Jan. 14 about 80 million barrels of crude oil are being stored in tankers, the most in 20 years.
Morgan Stanley had earlier agreed to pay $68,000 a day to rent the 2 million-barrel carrier Argenta, according to reports from Athens-based Optima Shipbrokers and Paris-based Barry Rogliano Salles. That works out at $1.02 a barrel a month for a 2 million-barrel consignment.
Benchmark U.S. oil futures are trading at an average of about $3.59 more than the previous month between February and June. For Brent, a benchmark European grade, the difference between the March contract and that for June averages about $1.64 a barrel a month.
The so-called contango pricing structure in oil has been caused by excess supply as demand slows and speculation that output cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce the glut later this year.
Phibro LLC, Citigroup’s commodities trading unit, has the 1 million-barrel carrier Ice Transporter stationed off north Scotland. Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, booked at least two supertankers.

Source: Alaric Nightingale, Bloomberg
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=32815&Itemid=79

[Milner]

More newbuilding cancellations on the road, as ship owners look for some "damage control"
Tuesday, 20 January 2009
Another Hellenic shipping company, this time from the private ones, Costamare Shipping, owned by Cpt. Vassilis Konstantakopoulos, moved forward with its plans to axe part of its new building programme. Costamare, one of the most reknowned companies of the container shippping sector, which has been hit even worse than dry bulk shipping by the recent financial crisis, is set to cancel new building orders for three containerships. The order had been placed with China’s Hudong and was of an estimated value of $480 million. It involved the building of four containerships of 4,800-TEUs each. If the report is confirmed three out of four vessels won’t reach the sea, at least for Costamare. As for the remaining vessel it will be built with a nine-month delay, which will bring its scheduled delivery at the beginning of 2010. One of the reasons for this delay could be the fact that Costamare hasn’t yet managed to secure the ship’s employment with any charterer. Of course, Costamare still remains the largest Hellas-based shipping company of the container sector, controlling a fleet of about 60 vessels.
The Constantakopoulos family is also involved in one of the country’s biggest tourism developments which are currently underway. The project is ran by TEMES, an affiliated entity, and involves the development of four large plots in the region of Messinia, the family’s homeland. It will include a number of golf courses, luxurious hotels, housing, marinas and related amenities.
Besides Costamare, a number of Hellenic shipping companies have already announced plans to axe part of their new building programmes, with most of them being publicly-traded like Navios Maritime of Angeliki Fragou, Stealthgas of Harry Vafias and Genco Shipping of Mr. Peter Georgiopoulos. Among the private ones one can include Metrostar of Theodore Angelopoulos, Target Marine of Mr. Komninos and Brave Maritime of the Vafias family.

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News

[Milner]

09 looks like a tough year all around. Dry Bulk will rebound but its going to take some time.

Common sense would dictate that quite a large percentage of the new order book will be impacted by bankruptcies especially in the Greenfield ship yard in the far east.

This will further be fueled by bankruptcy filings in the dry bulk sector such as Brittania and others who have defaulted on debt service ....

No question there will be a rise in dead weight tonnage but no where near the expected rise.....

[blackcat]

Dry Bulk Stocks: The Good Start of 2009 Can't Hide The Problems
Monday, 19 January 2009

Last year was a nightmare for shipping industry and of course for the stocks of the sector’s companies, especially for the dry bulk shippers. Shares of drybulk shipping companies were –and still are- among the victims of the harsh economic crisis that hurt the global economic and banking system. The former stars of the stock market, that during the last couple of years gave investors tremendous returns, experienced a dramatic year with huge losses, from September onwards. According to analysts and venture capital CEO’s this was a logical development, as the spread of crisis to the real economy hurt shipping industry and especially drybulk shipping companies. For example, as the global economy slowed, steel demand slipped, which in turn is dragged down drybulk rates. Steel, as well as the main raw material for its fabrication, iron ore, are hauled across the world's oceans by dry bulk vessels, and freight rates tend to trade in step with steel prices.
But the beginning of 2009 leaves a glimmer of hope, as the situation in the dry bulk sector –as it appears on the stock market indexes- looks to be stabilizing. With the Dry Bulk Index (BDI), which tracks the cost of hauling commodities like iron ore and coal, posting a healthy number of consecutive upward sessions, optimism seems to be returning at the dry bulk shipping sector, which has been plagued by the sharpest rate fall in its history. Last week, the BDI reached 911 points and it is now trading close to its highest point since October of 2008 and the owners of capesizes can finally have something to smile – or at least grim – about.
This improvement can be also read at the prices of the most dry bulk stocks. From the beginning of the year the majority of them has returned to green, giving investors positive returns. More specifically, until last Friday January 16 Danaos Corp. was gaining about 15.53% (at $7,81 per share), Dry Ships 36.96%, Aries Maritime was up by the impressive 151.5% - it is the best performance among all Hellenic dry bulk shippers which are listed in New York Stock Exchange- and Tsakos Energy Navigation was gaining 30.67%. Also, Navios Maritime is 16.13% higher, Omega Navigation Enterprises 11.77%, Paragon Shipping 20.82% and Top Ships 27.60%. At the same time, Genko Shipping, Excel Maritime and Star Bulk are showing smaller gains of 3.1%, 5.95% and 9.80%. On the contrary, Diana Shipping’s stock was losing 6.26%, General Maritime 6.57%, Stealth Gas 9.75% and Eagle Bulk Shipping is almost stable losing a mere 0.16% in comparison with the end of 2008.
Without a doubt, this is a promising start, especially after a very bad and difficult year. At the same time, someone could support that the glass is half empty. If we compare the current value of shipping stocks with the levels of the beginning of 2008, the result is disheartening, as the losses are –or remaining if you prefer- huge. In comparison with January 16 2008, Excel Maritime shows the biggest drop during the last 12 months as it has shed 72.15% of its value (from $27.10 per share to $7.,46). In the same period Dry Ships lost 72.15% (from $52.43 on January 16, 2008 to 14.60 last Friday), Navios Maritime stock closed on Friday at $3.67 appearing a loss of 59.44% in comparison to its value on January 16, 2008 ($9.05) and Paragon’s Shipping stock last Friday traded at $13.68 that produces a discount of 58.04% compared to its closing price of $13.68 on January 16, 2008. The picture doesn’t change for Star Bluk’s stock which has lost 70.80% of its value, falling from $9.59 to $2.55 and OMEGA Navigation from $14.31 to $6.37 (-50.24%). Genco’s Shipping stock has retreated by 58.64% (from $39.90 to $14.80), and Eagle Bulk Carriers shows losses of about 68.83% and Freeseas stock closed last Friday at $1.39, 70.43% lower than January 16, 2008. General’s Maritime stock has already lost 54.11% of its value (now at $10.09 from $21.99 a year ago). For the stocks of Stealth Gas the losses stand at 65.88% (from $2.53 to $1.63), Tsakos Energy at 31.98% and Top Ships to 17.78% at $2.63 showing the smallest losses during the last 12 months.
So, as the picture of the stock indexes remains grim, some analysts remain pessimistic noting that even if demand comes back in 2009, there is still a strong chance of overcapacity due to the shipbuilding order boom that took place when rates were at their peak. According to the Wall Street Journal, in the last two years, 50 million tons of capacity have been added to the global fleet of 420 million tons. "But in 2009 and 2010, over 175 million tons is due to come into service. Some of these orders will need to be cancelled if shipping rates are to rise". "Given the worldwide steel output contraction, and indications of even less production in the months ahead, the dry bulk market appears unlikely to experience a major positive catalyst until next year, when contracted iron ore is likely to be priced at a substantial discount to 2008 prices," said Dahlman Rose analyst Omar Nokta in a recent report.

Makis Theodoratos, Hellenic Shipping News
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=32610&Itemid=93

[Milner]

Yes,

That article has some good points. Crude and product shippers though have to be classified as an entire different sub sector than containers.

Im don't hold any container companies and i dont even like any of them except for Moeller Maersk. That company does everything and has alot of product tankers that shipped refined gas products.

The crude shipping sub sector is in contango. In the crude area the amount of scrappings and shipbuilding cancellations plus the new long term routes are going bode well for shippers.

As far as a second wave of torrent in the shipping sector that article is vague about what part. Dry bulk has no where to collapse. They are at the bottom.

The natural gas shippers are moving more and more to regasification and very long term contracts like Golar.

Container sub sector is not my strong area so i stay away from it.

Alot of the analysts even Cramer on T.V. arent all the well vetted in shipping. He still calls Frontline a dry bulk company. They ship little or no dry bulk.

Golden Ocean is the dry bulk shipper in that family of companies.

Its still a pretty good article all in all. I wish i knew more about containers but for some reason i stayed away from that. I like dry bulk and crude shipping..

[polkamatic]

Interesting article along those lines I found on another board:


Morgan Stanley to secure supertanker to store crude oil
Saturday, 17 January 2009

Shipping brokers in Tokyo say that Morgan Stanley has joined a growing international scramble to secure an oil supertanker and use it to store millions of barrels of crude in what commodity dealers believe may be the “trade of the year”. The rush to snap up supertankers and profit from the huge “contango” spreads between the falling crude spot price and rising futures price comes amid dire warnings by analysts over the future of the wider shipping industry.
Massive overcapacity and slumping global trade are expected to trigger a second collapse in cargo rates, which already plunged nearly 94 per cent last year.
Exports from China, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan are falling fast and are expected to drop farther at a pace not seen since the early 1980s.
Sources throughout the Asian shipping sector say that, despite a recent rally in container and dry bulk rates, dozens of companies could go bust this year.
A spokesman for Nippon Yusen, the largest Japanese shipping line, predicted prolonged difficulties for cargo rates as the global economy falters.
But the efforts to play the so-called contango trade have unexpectedly raised tanker hire rates to about $75,000 a day.

Rough calculations by shipping brokers suggest that if a trader were to buy two million barrels of crude at today’s prices, insure them and store them for a month in the largest grade of supertanker at present charter rates, the buyer would be paying about $1.15 a barrel on top of today’s spot price of $35.50.
The crude futures price at the end of March stands about $8 higher than today’s spot price, and six months out the spread is more than $21 a barrel.
Shipping brokers in Tokyo told The Times that Morgan Stanley was “engaged in a serious bid for a supertanker”, but that it had not yet found the appropriate vessel at rates it was prepared to pay.
The same brokers said that, in addition to the commodities trading arm of Citigroup, at least two other Wall Street names had recently expressed interest in procuring a supertanker for use throughout the year as a giant floating oil container.
Oil traders and companies such as BP and Shell have begun snapping up more tanker capacity but, brokers said, the mathematical attractiveness of the trade is drawing interest from investors outside the industry.
Knockdown ship charter rates, along with the plunging global economic outlook, are responsible for the sudden interest in crude oil storage: Frontline, which owns the world’s largest fleet of supertankers, said yesterday that about 80 million barrels of crude are sitting in storage in the hulls of ships around the world.
Sources at one of the largest shipbuilding companies in Asia said that they were also starting to receive inquiries about ship conversions - turning unused bulk carriers into oil storage vessels - as more investors are drawn to playing the oil price contango.
A report published today by HSBC predicts an outright collapse of liner rates in 2009, and warns that operators will be forced to slash costs further merely to stay in business.
Demand growth for container shipping, Azura Shahrim, of HSBC, said, could sink to zero over the course of the year amid a meltdown of global trade.
A significant pressure on rates is the vast size of the global fleet - about 4,700 container ships and an order book for new vessels that would add about half as much capacity again over the next few years.
The five-stage payment structure of shipbuilding means that ships ordered for delivery between now and 2011 are unlikely to be cancelled and the relative youth of the fleet, of which just under half is less than ten years old, means that a sudden increase in scrapping is also improbable.
The renewed warnings of a big drop in shipping rates coincide with grim warnings from analysts over China’s immediate economic prospects.
Ben Simpfendorfer, China economist for Royal Bank of Scotland, said that the risks of a big decline in exports was growing and that the relatively small 2.8 per cent year-on-year drop last month “will shortly be overwhelmed by the sudden pullback in global demand”.

Source: Times Online
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=32494&Itemid=79

[Milner]

Crude Tankers,

A recent report on Tanker routes around the world pointed out that the current trend in U.S. Crude imports which originated in the Western Hemisphere has been decreasing. Especially the short term routes of Mexico and Venezuala.

Since they are also prediciting quite a few cancellations of newbuilding contracts on tankers and the Contango storage situation it all bodes well for World Spot rates.

Even with the majors reluctance to book single hulled tonnage the rates on those tankers are good too.

These new trends in the trade routes for crude are looking like a long term trend also. This bodes very well for companies like FRO, NAT, OSG and Teekay.

Part of the reason for this trend is the decline in Mexican domestic production along with U.S. in a similar situation.

Canadian imports have risen but only modestly .

Good day..!!!

[polkamatic]

Seaspan Declares Dividend of $0.475 Per Share for Fourth Quarter 2008
Friday January 16, 8:00 am ET


HONG KONG, CHINA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jan 16, 2009 -- Seaspan Corporation (NYSE:SSW - News) announced today that the Company's Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.475 for the three months ended December 31, 2008. The dividend will be paid on February 16, 2009 to all shareholders of record as of February 2, 2009.
For a further discussion of our existing capital obligations and our ability to pay dividends in the future, please see the Form 6-K for the quarter ending September 30, 2008, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 13, 2008.

About Seaspan

Seaspan owns containerships and charters them pursuant to long-term fixed-rate charters. Seaspan's contracted fleet of 68 containerships consists of 35 containerships in operation and 33 containerships to be delivered over approximately the next three years. Seaspan's operating fleet of 35 vessels has an average age of approximately five years and an average remaining charter period of approximately eight years. All of the 33 vessels to be delivered to Seaspan are already committed to long-term time charters averaging approximately 11 years in duration from delivery. Seaspan's customer base consists of seven of the world's largest, publicly traded liner companies, including China Shipping Container Lines, A.P. Moller-Maersk, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO Container Lines, K-Line and CSAV.

Seaspan's common shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "SSW".

[jchawk]

I'm new to the board too, blackcat turned me onto it. I just took over Mod'ing the NM Board -

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=9619

There is some small pockets of discussion about the Tankers and Shippers around iHub, I wonder if we could consolidate our efforts onto this board?

I'm adding a board mark here and looking forward to working with you guys and girls!

[polkamatic]

I just want to tell you guys I recently found this board and am really enjoying the expert analysis. I look forward to being able to contribute something here but for now am just reading back and learning tons about the shipping industry.
Thankfully, I now recognize the difference between capesized and capsized...so there's that, lol.

gl

[Milner]

AD,

I think your absolutely right. The dry bulk shippers swing with the prices of commodities. Since all those commodities that are shipped in dry bulk are so oversold there is no great hurry to get them to market. Since this BDI has been falling the producers are in no great hurry to get their product to market because they know by just waiting they can get a higher price for those goods. It would take a great force just to hold this action from correcting with all of the forces pushing back twards a fair market price again. Oil is a great example of that. Oil is way way way oversold. Its on the same playing field as copper , silver and steel. Once there is any activity indicating an upswing of any kind these shipping companies that survive this consolidation and messy financial cloudiness are going to run downhill for a long time to come.

Thats just my opinion though..

I could be way off , this market has a real way of making me eat humble pie....!!!!

[AD]

Milner, I think longer term we'll find that prices of the dry shippers are still huge bargains down here, even after the big percentage gains.

[Milner]

Happy New Year,

Lets look forward to a nice turnaround here ....


09 Bring it in...!!!!!

[Milner]

Good days ahead for dry bulk market, poised for another week of growth
Monday, 15 December 2008
A revival of the ailing Capesize market drove the Baltic dry market ahead during the past week, with the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) moving at fast paces, quickly leaving the 1,000-points mark and closing the week at 1,331 points. The BCI managed to post a whopping 52% increase, translated at 460 points. This development brought the whole Index (BDI) up, by more than 100 points in a week, or 15 percent, with more than half of that increase coming at the end of the week. One explanation for this recovery can be found at Dahlman Rose’s latest daily report, which indicated that the Capesize market retained its activity. At least 16 Capesize iron ore cargoes were fixed out of Australia with deliveries to China between Tuesday and Thursday. Another two vessels were contracted to China as of Friday morning, but with higher rates. At th same time, both the BPI (Baltic Panamax Index) and the BSI (Baltic Supramax Index), although they kept shedding points, now at 440 and 490 levels respectively, they managed to do that a slower pace, which could be an indication of them returning to higher grounds within the week.
According to Weberseas’ latest report on the dry bulk market, the ongoing negotiations between China's steel companies and the top iron ore producers (Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton) seem to be moving towards an early resolution. This would help drive the drybulk freight market towards higher levels due to the increase in the iron ore shipments.
“As far as this week is concerned it seems to be a repetition of last week's Sale & Purchase activity, with a couple of small tankers being sold and a decent number of bulk carriers. It is interesting to note the sale of a couple of older 1984 blt 29,000 dwt lakers (Woody & Milo) which have been committed for US$ high 2's and at the same time 2 younger 28000 bulkers built 2001 and 2000 (Captain Corelli & Prince Rupert) achieving excess US$ 19 mill and excess US$ 18 mill respectively” said Weberseas in its report.
Of course, even this slight recovery in rates, doesn’t mean that the market is suddenly up and running. Most vessels are still not earning enough to return to profit. This prompts more and more ship owners to decide to scrap their older tonnage. Demolition prices have been hovering around the mid/high US$ 200's per lightweight. But these price levels are increasingly coming under great pressure as the supply of tonnage is on the increase. What’s more important, Weberseas points out that “a number of inactive scrap yards are resuming their operations therefore; we hope that this will keep some sort of price stability. Unlike Chittagong, where there is reduced space for further acquisitions, India's Alang seems to have more capacity to take fresh tonnage” said Weberseas.

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News

[Milner]

It was either press release over the summer when the stock hit 70 dollara a share. It had so much momentum at the time they thought they would do the paperwork just incase it zoomed up over 100. Later they issue a second press release saying now would not be the time making that move and it would be postponed until market conditions got better. Golar on the other hand i had no idea about until i read the press release saying they werent splitting the company due to the same reasons. Golar looked more like they would be issuing new shares in a spinoff.....

[AD]

no prob , Joe. How do you know about this..<< FRO 5 for 1 split also. The paperwork is already done. >>

[Milner]

AD,

I just got done reading that. Im just taking things day by day at this point. I hold GOGL, DESSC, PRGN, FRO, GLNG, and think they will all recover well from this. I hold all JF companies except Marine Harvest I even have ITCL. I think Golar will eventually spin off , and FRO will eventually 5 for 1 split also. The paperwork is already done. Just on hold until the financial market clears and the sectors consolidate more. I expect a firm rebound eventually possibly sooner than later but we will have to see....

Thanks for the post,

Joe

[AD]

Setting sail for an economic rebound
A big rally in shares of global shipping companies may just be a short-term trading play. But some think it could be a sign of a global economic recovery.

good piece on the sector condition
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/10/markets/thebuzz/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

[Milner]

I think this sector was so oversold it was ridiculous.... !!

Lets Roll>>>>!!!!!

[xanadu90]

Ships are lining up in Australia's coal exporting ports again. 40 ships waiting for to load in Newport, Australia.

That's like in good old days...

[AD]

DryShips Surges on Commodities Rally
08 December, 2008 04:54:00 Justin Kuepper
Font size: Decrease font Enlarge font

DryShips Inc. (NYSE: DRYS) shares moved up sharply with a strong rally in commodities acting as a catalyst. The owner and operator of dry bulk ships saw its shares drop precipitously over the last few months after a warning-ridden prospectus spooked investors already concerned about the crash in the spot market for dry bulk carriers.

The prospectus filing cautioned that even with fresh equity it cannot be assured that operating and capital needs would be satisfied or that it would remain in compliance with debt covenants if the low charter rates in the dry bulk market continue. The filing went on to note that the company may be required to sell vessels in the fleet that would impair its ability to conduct business.

Chief executive George Economou argued that the language was merely designed by lawyers to protect against litigation and that the company was not breaching any covenants nor was it at risk of doing so in the near future. In fact, the firm has $1.7 billion in liquidity with $456 million in cash and $1.2 billion in committed bank lines.

Low expectations have driven the stock down, but these expectations have also made the stock very vulnerable to good news. The sharp move up in commodities today sparked a rally across the industry as any prolonged increase in commodity prices could lead to subsequent increases in shipping rates, especially in the spot market in the near-term.

Shares of DryShips are trading up $1.62, or 34.11%, at $6.37 per share mid-day trading.
http://investerms.com/index.php?news=812

[AD]

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity-shipping rates, rose yesterday for the first time since Nov. 18 on
speculation that a U.S. economic stimulus plan may revive demand for shipments of iron ore, a key steelmaking
ingredient. Shipping rates have
tumbled 94 percent from a May 5 record as Chinese steelmakers curb production.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aP5DY.FLzvC8

[Milner]

The question is will Golden Ocean surivive this currennt situation. They seem to be under attack at several points at one. It seems like they are trying to get the shipyards to work slower and cancell a contract. For somekind a deferred payment. Possible stock . JF knows how to hand these things.

[xanadu90]

Golden Ocean seeks to cut newbuilding exposure

Tony Gray/Lloyd's List - Monday 1 December 2008

John Fredriksen's Golden Ocean is seeking to reduce its $1.6bn newbuilding exposure
DRY bulk shipping specialist Golden Ocean is seeking to reduce its $1.6bn newbuilding exposure at the same time as putting together a financing package that will help the company survive a persistent downturn in the freight market.

The John Fredriksen company’s gameplan was disclosed along with third quarter results which show net income more than doubled to $118.7m from $52.9m in the like period of last year, or to $0.43 from $0.20 on a per share basis.

However, the advance reflected a gain of $54.4m on the sale of one panamax newbuilding delivered from China’s Jiangsu Rong Sheng Heavy Industries and one capesize newbuilding delivered from Daehan Shipyard in South Korea.

Golden Ocean said the fourth quarter would “continue to show positive operating income,” based on the “strong” charter coverage.

“However, the company’s main focus will be to monitor a tight liquidity situation caused by a very weak spot market and a difficult financing environment.”

Golden Ocean, which has a newbuilding programme of 30 vessels, is seeking ‘amendments’ to its contracts.

“The purpose of such a discussion is to reduce, postpone or achieve financing for parts of this newbuilding program and thereby improve the company’s liquidity position,” the company said.

“A constructive dialogue has been established with the yards; however, no results have so far been achieved.”

Golden Ocean said about 55%of the remaining newbuilding programme had committed financing.

Out of the $385m in capital expenditure payable in 2009, 76% had already been financed.

“The company has a good dialogue with the banks in order to achieve a resistant total financing package which can make the company less vulnerable if the market continues to be weak for some time,” Golden Ocean said.

“Such a package will, however, be dependent of cancellation and or postponement of part of the newbuilding programme.”

[xanadu90]

GDOCF.PK cuts dividend - NOK 4.40 = $0.62 in Oslo now

GOGL - Interim Results for the Quarter ended September 30, 2008

Golden Ocean Group Limited (the "Company" or "Golden Ocean") reports net income of $118.7 million and earnings per share of $0.43 for the third quarter of 2008. This compares with net income and earnings per share of $52.9 million and $0.20 respectively for the third quarter of 2007. Total operating revenues for the third quarter were $309.8 million, total operating expenses were $242.3 million and net other expenses were $3.1 million. Included in the third quarter results is a gain on sale of assets of $54.4 million. This relates to the two previously announced sales of one Panamax newbuilding delivered from Jiangsu Rong Sheng Heavy Industries and one Capesize newbuilding delivered from Daehan Shipyard in Korea.

Golden Ocean reports net income of $373.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2008, equivalent to earnings per share of $1.35.

Cash and cash equivalents decreased by $71.9 million during the quarter. The Company used cash in operating activities of $14.6 million, received $16.7 million from investing activities and paid $74.0 million in financing activities. Investing activities include part payments on newbuilding instalments of $101.9 million and proceeds from the sale of assets of $165.9 million. During the third quarter the Company repaid $89.4 million in debt and borrowed an additional $137.3 million.

In view of the current financial market conditions, the Company's newbuilding commitments and the Company's liquidity position it has been decided not to declare a dividend for the third quarter of 2008.

At September 30, 2008 the total number of shares outstanding in Golden Ocean was 276,990,107 of $0.10 par value each.

The full report is available in the enclosed attachment.

December 1, 2008
The Board of Directors
Golden Ocean Group Limited
Hamilton, Bermuda

Questions should be directed to:
Herman Billung: CEO Golden Ocean Management AS
[phone]

Geir Karlsen: CFO Golden Ocean Management AS
[phone]


Published: 08:14 01.12.2008 GMT+1 /HUGIN /Source: Golden Ocean Group /OSE: GOGL /ISIN: BMG4032A1045

[xanadu90]

Dockwise Secures USD 45 million in Near- and Mid-term Contract Awards

Bermuda, November 28, 2008. Dockwise Ltd. announces nine near and midterm contracts awarded to its subsidiary, Dockwise Shipping, for the transportation of jack- up and semi submersible drilling rigs, dredging equipment and various other cargoes. Total revenues for the contracts are approx USD 45 million.

On behalf of Noble Drilling, Dockwise Shipping is to transport the drilling rig Noble Roy Butler to its new assignment in the Gulf of Mexico. Following the recent announcement that Dockwise had been contracted to transport the Noble Carl Norberg to the same location, both jack-up rigs will travel in a single journey aboard the same vessel, thus optimizing mobilization time and cost. On behalf of various other clients, Dockwise Shipping will transport three jack-up drilling rigs to Malaysia, China, and Dubai. Turning to more varied cargo, Dockwise Shipping has been contracted to transport a dredging cargo to Saudi Arabia, the KS Titan 2 liftboat to Rotterdam as well as a workover jack-up to Gabon. All projects are for execution in the final quarter of 2008.
In 2009, Dockwise Shipping will transport the semi-submersible West Setia for Seadrill from its present in-yard location in Singapore to West Africa.

In 2010 the newbuild semi-submersible production platform Delba III will be transported to Brasil.

Dockwise's CEO André Goedée said:

"This is encouraging news. The spot market for drilling rig transportation continues to be in good health, and our income to be supplemented by revenue streams from other cargoes. Realizing the strongest quarter ever would be a fantastic stepping stone into 2009. In addition, we are now only a few months from commencing a major programme to utilise our strong free cashflow to pay down debt."



Contact:
Fons van Lith
[phone]/[phone]
[e-mail]

Notes for Editors:

About Dockwise Ltd

Dockwise Ltd. has a workforce of more than 1200 people both offshore and onshore. The company is the leading marine contractor providing total transport services to the offshore, onshore and yachting industries as well as installation services of extremely heavy offshore platforms. The group is headquartered in Bermuda with amongst others operational offices in Breda, The Netherlands. The group's main commercial offices are located in The Netherlands, the United States, China, Korea, Australia and Nigeria. The Dockwise Yacht Transport business unit is headquartered in Fort Lauderdale and has offices in France and Italy. The Dockwise Shipping network is supported by agents in Japan, Singapore, Spain, Argentina, Australia and Italy.
For further information: www.dockwise.com

[AD]

Rates:
The violence with which
shipping rates have fallen
from their highs made earlier
this spring is nothing short of
awe inspiring. The "day rate"
for dry bulk carriers has
fallen from nearly $230
thousand/day to $15 thousand
in a few months. As a gauge
of the health of the global
economy, the global economy is
nearly terminal in nature, or is
getting there swiftly

[Milner]

I just saw a show on a channel here in the U.S. about Los Angeles California. That is the largest container port in the United States. Years ago it was Oakland. Im sure they also still have a large one there too. From Los Angeles the containers go onto a Burlington Northern Santa Fe train with 4 locomotives. That train takes them to Ft. Worth Texas. That is a major distribution point for several large U.S. companies.
Its an amazing operation. Containers really arent my thing. Im familiar with companies like Horizon and Maersk. I have no investments at all in the container side of operations.

I think once a recovery package is in place in the U.S. the European Union will follow suit to some extent.

Tomorrow they are talking about bailing out Citigroup Bank.
The U.S. govt is going to give them the equivelent of a Bridge Loan. Their valuation was 180 billion one year ago.
Today it is 20 Billion. They are planning to lay off 53,000 people very soon if they don't get bailed out.

I think they are going to lay those people off anyway and replace half of them with new employees. The new employees will be paid less have little or no internet access at work and not be permitted to use hand held devices for talk or texting. Basically they will have an employee handbook the size of the King James Bible.

Since they are an what amount to an institutional employer they will be under pressure to re hire many new people after their initial layoffs. This of course is just my opinion but its an opportunity for them to start fresh. The era of mortgage backed securities and the excesses that went along with them is over. Those who worked in that environment at the financial houses as middle managers will be ushered out.

The major auto companies in the U.S. will see either a bridge loan of 25 billion for help through 2009 or bankruptcy . Jack Walsh the former CEO of General Electric has stated that bankruptcy would give them an opportunity to rid themselves of many jobs controlled by the UAW United Auto Workers Union International which operates in the U.S. and Canada.

It is said that for every 1 assembly line worker the 3 major U.S. auto makers employ there are 7 jobs further down the stream of components and accessories that go into U.S. auto's.

Either way it will get sorted out in 2009 because as institutional employers, the U.S. cannot lose those jobs even though sentiment here is negative. The moral of the U.S. economy and industry which is still large by world standards cannot suffer the blow of losing these jobs and institutions.

GM, Ford and Chrysler have made strides in the last few years to improve and actually do make a better product than ever. Unfortunately the U.S. auto industry has been on a downward spiral since the riots in Detroit in 1967.

14 square miles of Detroit were burned to the ground in 5 days of rioting in 1967 starting on July 23rd of that year. They didnt end until July 29th. 48 people died , 1150 were injured and 6000 people were arrested. By far it was the worst act of civil disobedience ever in U.S. history. The wounds of this have yet to heal.

Sadly their are still burned out houses on empty blocks of that city stand as reminders of a bygone era.

Up until that time the U.S. automakers stood alone as masters of the auto industry in North America.

I am optomistic that the U.S will find a way to pull through this messy situation. Even though the world economy looks bad at the present time it should recover within a year or so.

The new more conservative outlook in the banking sector should be a more stable atmosphere for the world economy.

Dry bulk should recover sometime soon. No one is going to know when though. Once it does though alot of people are going to wish they had bought in at these ridiculous levels.

I believe many of the ships marked for delivery in 2009 are going to be delayed especially when the smaller shipyards in the far east go bankrupt. That is not a matter of time but a matter of when. Many of the larger yards are going to downsize which will reduce their capacity and output.

Since the world economy is a copycat economy i look for layoffs in all sectors many of which have already happened.
Shipbuilding will not be the exception. This will greatly reduce the new Dead Weight Tonnage expected to be delivered in 2009. Once they slow down that gigantic mechanism it will take years for them to once again produce those ships in such great numbers.

It is much riskier for a bank to finance a shipbuilding than an individual shipment. Shipbuilding takes years so the exposure is much greater.

The way i see it Golden Ocean is well positioned to benefit from all of this. Lets hope so....!!!!!

I know i need a break from all of this....

Have a good day...

[Milner]

I think Golden Ocean has a good charter book. The things that worry me are:

1) Do they have any exposure to other bulk shippers as in if they own shares of Dryships. That concerns me. Dryships is now down under 5 dollars a share. I see Golden Ocean possibly acquiring some of their ships or newbuildings. Since the owner of dryships is interested in Ultra Deep water drillships Golden Ocean may have an opportunity to buy some of their newbuilding contracts that are not at the Pipayev shipyard. I read the same thing that they are in financial difficulty.

2) Will Golden Ocean use this opportunity to buy another Bulk Shipper and reverse merge onto a U.S. exchange in 2009.

3) Will the bad apples spoil the whole bunch. As in if a company like Dryships goes belly up or has to delist from the Nasdaq will it spell the ruin for a shipper like Golden Ocean with a strong T/C position in their charter book?

4) Has the drop in commodities lowered the cost of bunker and is that going to streghthen Golden Oceans cash position going into 2009.

I think any turnaround, even a stabiliziation of the commodity market will be bullish for the Dry Bulk sector considering the massive cancellation aspect of the world new building book.

I suspect you feel the same way , am i correct?

[xanadu90]

How a shipping container can tell the story of global trade?
The Box - a program by BBC

Are you interested to know how the world economy works, what the trade globalization really can be? BBC is making a serie of programs describing the travelling of one container all over the world during one year. The program started in September 2008 from Southampton - with a container called "BBC News", carrying 25.000 bottles of whisky - and headed to Shanghai. The program explains how the container was filled, how it was loaded on the ship, how it was unloaded and transported to a Shanghai warehouse etc. Now the container is on its way to Singapore. BBC will track the voyage of this container for one year, and you can follow on a map the travel on BBC site. If you like to see how a giant harbor works, they'll explain that too.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/business/2008/the_box/default.stm

Enjoy!

[xanadu90]

There has been quite a lot of cancellations of newbuilds this year.
Take a look at StarBulks report from November 2008 - page 14 - where they list in all 335 vessels cancelled by now.

http://starbulk.com/files/sblkpres1108.pdf

Some specialists say, that a big part of ships, which should be delivered after 2009, will be cancelled. All ships built in 2009 will come to the market - they cannot be cancelled any more -, but after that the orderbooks will shrink considerably.

Who knows. Rumours are circulating that many shipyards will go bankrupt (Pipavav!), and if the economies do not start recovering soon, massive cancellations will happen.

[xanadu90]

Hello Milner,

I copied GOGL's fleet list with charter-out contracts from a Norwegian message board. The writer "fcras" has digged out the contracts, and it does not seem bad for GOGL at all:

(I do not translate the few Norwegian words on the list - I guess you will understand all the terms used - I think they resemble very much the English terms. If not, please ask me)

- - - -


GOGL__Fleet list / Charter-out kontrakter pr 7 nov..08__
:
GOGL har oppdatert fleet listen deres 7. nov.2008 > http://www.goldenocean.no/fleetlist/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oppdateret: 18 nov.08 > se "Golden Heiwa"

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Golden Ocean Fleet pr 7 nov. 2008 – Charter-out kontrakter

Navn – byggeår – fra / Charter-inn / til /år – (Break even)

----------------------------------

OWNED VESSELS


CAPESIZE - aktive

Channel Alliance 1996 - 25.000 / til jan 11 (12.500)

Channel Navigator 1997- fra dec 05 /45.000 / til dec/08 – fra apr.09 / 53,500 / 5 år (16.000)

Nybygg

Golden Feng Q4/08 – 46.000 / 5 år

Golden Shui Q1/09 – 43.800 / 5 år

Golden Beijing Q4/09 – 40.500 / 10 år

Golden Future Q4/09 – 51.000 / 5 år

Golden Zhejiang Q2/10 - OPEN

Golden Zhoushan Q2/10 - OPEN

Golden Nantong Q3/10 – OPEN

--------------------------------------------

PANAMAX: - aktive

Golden Saguenay 2008 – 17.500 / 5 år

Golden Opportunity 2008 - 17.500 / 5 år

Nybygg

Golden Ice Q4/08 – 23.700 / 5 år

Golden Strength Q1/09 - 27.500 / 5 år

-------------------------------------------

KAMSARMAX:

Nybygg:

Golden Eminence Q4/09 - OPEN

Golden Empress Q1/10 - 24.500 / 10 år

Golden Endeavour Q2/10 - 24.500 / 10 år

Golden Endurer Q3/10 - 28.000 / 5 år

Golden Enterprise Q4/10 - 28.000 / 5 år

Golden Excellence Q1/11 - 24.000 / 10 år

Golden Explorer Q2/11 - 24.000 / 10 år

Golden Excalibur Q2/11 - OPEN

Golden Express Q3/11 - OPEN

Golden Exquisite Q4/11 - OPEN

Golden Eye Q4/11 – OPEN
______________________________________________________________________________


CHARTERED VESSELS


CAPESIZE:

Irfon 1996 – 66.500/ til okt. 09 - (27.000)


PANAMAX:

Willi Salamon 2000

Gertrud Salamon 2000

Salvatore Cafiero 2001 – 62.000 /til okt. 10 – (17.500)

Yomoshio 2001 – OPEN – (10.000)

Amira 2001 – 75.500 – 30.000)

Belflower 2004 – 25.000/ til feb 09 (Solgt feb. 09) - (9.300) > P´max Pool D/S Norden ***

Mulberry Paris 2004 – fra apr 08 / 51.250 / til aug 11 - (9.000)

Mulberry Wilton 2004 - apr 08 / 51,250 / til dec 11 - (9,000)

Golden Heiwa 2007 – 17.500/ til mar. 17 - (10.000) - hos Kleimar NV / Navios (NM)

Golden Sakura 2007 – 33.250/ til aug. 09 - (11.100)

Golden Kiji 2007 – 35.000/ til jan 10 – (10.700)

Ocean Minerva 2007 – OPEN – (11.600)

Priscilla Venture 2008 – 66.500 – (47.500) > P´max Pool D/S Norden ***

Million Trader II 2004

Cyclades 2000

Barito 1996
-----------------------------------------------

CHARTERED BAREBOAT (uten mannskap)


CAPESIZE >Ship Finance International 15 år

Golden Straits Q4/08 – 36.800 / 5 år – (1-5 år 27.450 – 6-10 år 22.600 – 10-15 år 19.750)

Golden Island Q1/09 – 36.800 / 5 år - (1-5 år 27.450 – 6-10 år 22.600 – 10-15 år 19.750)
---------------------

KAMSARMAX

Golden Eclipse Q3/09 – OPEN - (21.975)
--------------------

PANAMAX:

Golden Joy 1994 – OPEN – (6.000 bare boat + mannskap)

Golden Lyderhorn 1999 – fra apr 08 / 51.000 / 2,5-3 år - (14.000)

Golden Shadow 1997 – OPEN – ( 10.000 bare boat + mannskap)

_______________________________________________________________________________

*** P´max Pool D/S Norden > http://www.ds-norden.com/drycargo/fleetlist/
_______________________________________________________________________________


VESSELS UNDER COMMERCIAL MANAGEMENT

OBO (Capesize) > Ship Finance > Frontline > Golden Ocean


Front Leader 1991

Front Breaker 1991

Front Guider 1991

Front Driver 1991

Front Climber 1991

Front Viewer 1992

Front Rider 1992

Front Striver 1992

CAPESIZE > Knightsbridge Tankers

Belgravia Q2/09

Battersea Q3/09

[xanadu90]

FRO, GOGL (GDOCF.PK), SFL and ITCL will all release their 3Q results on Friday, Nov 28! Stay tuned!

[xanadu90]

ITCL - Notification of date of release Q3 2008 results

Independent Tankers Corporation Limited's third quarter 2008 results will be released on Friday 28 November, 2008. A press release and a presentation will be distributed in connection with the release.

Bermuda,
November 21, 2008

ITCL website: http://www.itcl.bm

[Milner]

http://www.mffais.com/gdocf.pk.html


Looks like some funds bought into Golden Ocean

The link is above.

[Milner]

Xanadu,

How do you think Golden Ocean will fare in this turbulence. They seem ok but who knows....?