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Najarian on Fast Money recommending DRYS as his trade for tomorrow...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33869395/site/14081545?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo
Dry Bulk Winners: Genco, Diana Shipping stock quotes in this article: GNK , DSX , DRYS , PRGN , NM , EGLE , TBSI
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of dry-bulk shipping concerns advanced sharply Wednesday, gathering steam near the end of the session, as daily rates for their services continued to strengthen, pushed higher by China's demand for raw materials.
The going fee for a capesize vessel on the spot market, according to London's Baltic Exchange, the ship broker, jumped 4.6% to $67,385 Wednesday. That's down sharply from the more than $90,000 per day that these humongous ore haulers were fetching in July, but is still more than double the going rate of just two months ago. The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the daily changes in rates for all sizes of drybulk carrier, from capesize on down, rose 3.7% Wednesday to 3,748.
The reason for the shipping-rates rally? The Chinese, of course, whose mills continue to churn out steel at a near-record pace. In October, according to data released by China's government Wednesday, the Chinese steel industry produced 1.67 million metric tons of the stuff per day, up 44% from the same period a year ago.
Iron-ore imports, meanwhile, jumped 50% in October compared with a year ago, though the level did decline by about 30% from September's brisk pace. Nonetheless, with the world's third-largest economy growing, observers feel that ore imports will remain robust over the next month or so, especially as steel mills draw down further on the enormous ore stockpiles accumulated during a raw-materials buying binge in the spring and early summer of this year.
Further evidence of the increasing demand for ore cargo space came Wednesday morning, when two capsizes were booked for routes between Australia and China at a rate of $17.50 a ton, up from $16.50 on Tuesday.
cont http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10625360/1/dry-bulk-winners-genco-diana-shipping.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
This is a big move for a lot of the shippers today, i think it's the start of something...
gotta .10 ask on those DSX calls...trying to sell half so I can ride free!
Best o Luck, I like DSX!
been a while since I played some .05 lottos! let's go!
Got some DSX lotto 17.50's... only .05
yea. hate that they popped today. wanted to see a continued retrace
Checkout the ibox here, nice discount on every shipper is available...
GSL yes I have concerns, sold an attempt to accumulate ,on watch, if group moves with conviction.
GSL hmmmmm don't see solid support yet.
In GSL 1.50.....like CMZ as oil sand play .been trading channel 1.13- 1.19.
those jerks! didn't check the facts!
I didn't get the facts wrong, seeking alpha did... If NMM diluted they probably just got the symbol wrong...
That article is wrong, NM never diluted, and never dropped the dividend. NMM diluted by 5% dont have any idea where you got those facts from, just plain wrong.
Baltic Dry Index on the rise again
Thursday, 22 October 2009
The benchmark index for the dry bulk market has yet again been on the rise during the past couple of weeks. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) climber a further 85 points yesterday, to reach 2,917 and seems poised to break the 3,000 mark once again, in a year filled with tense volatility and mixed emotions by ship owners. The BDI has now extended its rise for a fifth straight session and is at a more than a 2-month high, with the Capesize sector leading the way, as was also the case in the downward trend as well. The relative Capesize Index increased by 231 points yesterday at 4,577 points, with daily average time charter rates gaining a further $2,947 at $47,215.
According to Fearnley’s latest weekly report, “the Capesize market has experienced a healthy improvement this week, mainly driven by the demand for ships in the Atlantic. One week ago the rate for a transatlantic round was slightly below $43,000 daily, against current $58,000 daily. The tonnage balance in the Atlantic remains tight, and supply of fresh cargoes is steady. The fronthaul market is up from high $25 pmt to around $30 pmt basis Tubarao/China. In the east the 3 most influential charters; BHP, Rio Tinto and FMG are all active, supporting the positive trend in rates and an optimistic sentiment. The freight rate for the Australia/China round is now in the low 12´s pmt. As a result of the above, period interest is increasing. Although not much yet being concluded, the rates for short period should be in the high $30,000´s and one year should be low $30,000 (or close to) according to the owners. As this market develops, they might be proven right” the broker said.
In recent weeks there had been better appetite for iron ore in Europe, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Chinese iron ore and coal imports were also picking up, brokers and analysts said.
Brokers said firmer demand to lease ships in the Atlantic and active freight derivatives trading had boosted sentiment this week, adding the interest had helped give a lift to rates for Capesize vessels typically hauling coal and iron ore cargoes.
In recent months Chinese demand for iron ore -- the primary material in the manufacture of steel -- has dominated freight market activity while adding to swings on the main index. According to Georgi Slavov, head of dry freight research and structured products at ICAP Shipping, as quoted by Reuters, global raw materials consumption still remained far below levels seen over a year ago before the economic downturn. "Demand is rising from a very very low level," Slavov said. "We are not going to reach 2008 volumes any time soon."
"There will be volatility," he said, referring to freight rates.
Maritime information provider Lloyd's Register-Fairplay estimated this month that the dry bulk carrier fleet will grow by an average of 9.5 percent from 2009 to 2013, versus 6.5 percent annual average growth in the previous five years.
Concerns have grown over the rising number of new ships set to hit the market in 2010 despite indications of some vessel cancellations and delays, analysts said.
The value of second-hand ships has continued to drop in recent weeks as new vessels come on stream and scrapping activity has dropped.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
Four Shippers Emerging from the Mire
by: MyHappyTrading.com October 22, 2009 | about: DRYS / DSX / EGLE / ESEA / FREE / GNK / NM / PRGN / TBSI
By Skymist
After a thrilling two-week rally in the stock market during early September, shippers began to fall. They had been enjoying a nice rally on the general premise of economic recovery, market stabilization, and rising materials prices. But suddenly on September 17th, the shipper sector broke, and leading names fell - plummeted, actually, at a much faster rate than the modest pullback in the general market would have implied.
With shippers today generally on the rise again, it is worthwhile to look at the reasons for the mid September breakdown. What was the number one reason? I would have to say it was the Baltic Index, which quantifies the prices shippers get for new contracts. It had stabilized at near 2400 in early September, and then began a robust rise, only to suddenly stop short. It began falling, slowly at first, then accelerating. By the 17th it was clear that the BDI was tanking, and the shippers as a group followed. The timing of the movements of BDI seemed to be the key. A market advance which coincides with a BDI advance is a powerful motivator for the depressed shipping stocks. The "robust rise" of early September triggered the sector advance. Few sectors snowball as readily as the shippers. Within days, shippers were moving to recent highs, but the BDI reversal stopped the process entirely.
Of course, the negative press didn't help either. The blogs were heavily negative on the shippers, pointing to the newly delivered ships and declaring that we need fewer ships, not more, in current economic conditions. Finally, Navios (NM) picked that moment to float a new stock offering, diluting their stockholders. The market knows that new offerings are one of the traditional signs of an overbought stock - in a sense, it is the ultimate in "insider selling".
How does today's rising shipper sector compare to September 17th? Well, the BDI is finally responding positively this time, passing 2800, rising 5 days in a row, and rising even faster than in early September. The chart also shows an even more key fact - the BDI is not only rising but is above its 200-day moving average; in mid-September at the time of the shipper retreat the BDI was well below its 200-day ma. No doubt, there is a lot of money on the sidelines which won't come back into the market until we have a rising BDI above its 200dma. That alone can explain a lot of the listless behavior of the shipper stocks in the past few months, but clearly the situation is different today. Sentiment is higher, with positive blog stories and upgrades. The sector is riding a more optimistic wave, and any key event could set off an upside stampede - a large earnings beat, a raised or reinstated dividend, or an acquisition.
The four stocks I am highlighting here are the key names I am watching. Today, Diana Shipping (DSX) became the first of the shippers to pull strongly above its Sept. 17 high. It was followed within minutes by Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE). I note with some satisfaction that DryShips (DRYS) is not a leader here - "satisfaction" because market karma dictates that those names issuing the most new stock should not be the first to benefit from a sector recovery, and indeed, that may be the case, DRYS being held back along with FreeSeas (FREE), Navios Maritime Holdings (NM), and others who resorted to dilution as a remedy.
TBS International (TBSI) has an interesting chart. See how the "stick" part of the candlesticks are long at the tops during the mid-Sept peak? This can be visualized as a price region in which there was heavy selling or shorting, each day forcing the price down after initial gains. The zone from 9.50 to about 9.85 represents a region which, once traversed, can lead to increased short-covering. TBSI has a short ratio of over 3.5, and the fuel which is the short positions could potentially power the stock higher very quickly - perhaps another dollar in just a couple of days. Given continued BDI strength, I feel we could see TBSI at $11 by early next week. The options are cheap, too.
Paragon Shipping (PRGN) is one of the best "sleeper" plays in the shipper segment. As the leaders pull higher, we can expect to see this tiny but well run company move up in price quickly and quietly. Yes, they are still paying a dividend.
If you want to participate in the shipper rally, take your eyes off DRYS, and start watching the new leaders. Good luck!
Disclosure: I am long TBSI, GNK, EGLE, PRGN, and ESEA.
NMM being naked shorted LINK:
http://www.buyins.net/tools/short_list.php?src=3,14,15
I would hate to be the shorters...
Its very clear that Navios is emerging as the next all star top shipper in the dry bulk industry, day after day, Navios remains more stable in price than the other shippers, and continues to gain dominant position! whatever you do, NM is a winner! Mark my words, Ill put my reputation on the line! NM will double and triple in price!
me too weeeeeeee go DSX go!
I agree bought some today on the upgrade!
Deutsche Securities initiates coverage on a lot of shippers today...
Textainer Group TGH Deutsche Securities Hold $16
Teekay Tankers TNK Deutsche Securities Hold $8
Teekay Shipping TK Deutsche Securities Hold $18
Seaspan SSW Deutsche Securities Hold $9
Overseas Shipholding OSG Deutsche Securities Hold $38
Old Dominion ODFL Deutsche Securities Buy $35
Norfolk Southern NSC Deutsche Securities Buy $55
Navios Maritime Partners NMM Deutsche Securities Buy $15
Landstar System LSTR Deutsche Securities Hold $40
Knight Transportation KNX Deutsche Securities Buy $20
JB Hunt Trans JBHT Deutsche Securities Buy $38
Heartland Express HTLD Deutsche Securities Buy $18
Genesee & Wyoming GWR Deutsche Securities Buy $36
General Maritime GMR Deutsche Securities Hold
Genco Shipping & Trading GNK Deutsche Securities Hold $23
Frontline FRO Deutsche Securities Sell $15
FedEx FDX Deutsche Securities Buy $98
Excel Maritime Carriers EXM Deutsche Securities Hold $6
Euroseas ESEA Deutsche Securities Hold $5
Eagle Bulk Shipping EGLE Deutsche Securities Sell $3
Diana Shipping DSX Deutsche Securities Buy $20
CSX Corp CSX Deutsche Securities Buy $50
Con-way CNW Deutsche Securities Hold $40
Capital Product Partners CPLP Deutsche Securities Buy $12
C.H. Robinson CHRW Deutsche Securities Hold $62
Burl Nrth Santa Fe BNI Deutsche Securities Hold $85
Arkansas Best ABFS Deutsche Securities Hold $28
DRYS leading the pack today, most of the shippers are up...
great informative post!
Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession anchored just east of Singapore
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-ghost-fleet-recession-anchored-just-east-Singapore.html#ixzz0SQNR5RJ6
cyclical industries are the easiest to make money in IMO, just pick the best companies when the pendulum is down, and your sure to make money when it goes back up!
The pendulum is what makes them great traders!
Finally up a little about time... If the analysts have their way its going to go to 100. When will they ever learn. Trying to predict the market especially the shipping market is a joke.. Its just a pendulum. It swung very far one way and now will swing back sometime eventually..
I agree, BDI is up a little today too...
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
NM trading at a steal compared to the other shippers!
Sector Snap: Drybulk shipping stocks fall
Drybulk shipping stocks fall as index loses ground, analyst warns of oversupply
NEW YORK (AP) -- Drybulk shipping stocks fell Monday, as a key index slumped and a Morgan Stanley analyst said an oversupply of ships is overshadowing improving demand.
The Baltic Dry Index, which is run by the Baltic Exchange in London, fell 38 points Monday to close at 2,318. The index measures shipping rates on 40 routes throughout the world.
Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer cut his view of commodity shipping, which includes the transport of dry goods as well as petroleum, to "In-Line" from "Attractive."
He thinks drybulk stocks will struggle over the next two years as more ships are being built. And since rates were "artificially inflated" this year because of port congestion and other factors, stocks are now too expensive.
"While the impressive recovery in dry bulk markedly lifted rates and values in 2009, it also resulted in a near-halt in scrapping and less incentive to cancel newbuildings from a total orderbook that currently stands at 65 percent of the fleet," Slorer wrote. "In the context of this outlook, dry bulk equity valuation is also starting to look stretched, in our view."
Rates for Capesize vessels, the biggest drybulk ships on the seas, are up 25 percent so far this year. Slorer expects these rates to come down over time as the number of new shipping contracts remains sluggish. Capesize vessels are so named because they are too big to fit through the Panama or Suez Canal and must instead sail around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn to travel between oceans.
In afternoon trading, shares of DryShips Inc. fell 37 cents, or 5.1 percent, to $6.90. Diana Shipping Inc. lost 37 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $13.64. Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. gave up 24 cents, or 4.2 percent, to $5.42.
SSW somebody is loading this dip! option volume is starting to heat up too...
Seaspan Takes Delivery of Forty-First Containership on Twelve-Year Time Charter to China Shipping
Delivery of CSCL Manzanillo Marks Successful Completion of Series of Eight 2500 TEU Container Ships
Sep 21, 2009 9:15:00 AM
HONG KONG, CHINA--(Marketwire - Sept. 21, 2009) - Seaspan Corporation (NYSE:SSW) announced today that it accepted delivery of the CSCL Manzanillo from Jiangsu Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., on September 18, 2009. The 2500 TEU containership is Seaspan's sixth newbuilding in 2009 and expands the Company's fleet to 41 vessels. The CSCL Manzanillo is chartered to China Shipping Container Lines (Asia) Co., Ltd., under a twelve-year, fixed-rate time charter that requires CSCL Asia to pay all fuel, cargo-operating and related costs. Upon delivery of Seaspan's full fleet of 68 vessels, the Company's contracted revenue stream is expected to grow to approximately $7 billion and its annual revenue is anticipated to rise to approximately $700 million.
Gerry Wang, Chief Executive Officer of Seaspan, said, "With the delivery of the CSCL Manzanillo, we have successfully completed the construction and delivery of the series of eight 2500 TEU vessels. We are pleased to have partnered with both Jiangsu Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and CSCL to provide this leading Chinese liner with modern, state-of-the-art vessels that continue to meet high performance standards. We look forward to continuing to grow our fleet and contracted revenue stream as we take delivery of 27 remaining newbuildings."
About Seaspan
Seaspan owns containerships and charters them pursuant to long-term fixed-rate charters. Seaspan's contracted fleet of 68 containerships consists of 41 containerships in operation and 27 containerships to be delivered over approximately the next three years. Seaspan's operating fleet of 41 vessels has an average age of approximately five years and an average remaining charter period of approximately seven years. All of the 27 vessels to be delivered to Seaspan are already committed to long-term time charters averaging approximately 11 years in duration from delivery. Seaspan's customer base consists of seven of the world's largest liner companies, including China Shipping Container Lines, A.P. Moller-Maersk, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Hapag-Lloyd, COSCO Container Lines, K-Line and CSAV.
Riskiest Dry-Bulk Stock: DryShips
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Dry-bulk shipping is a volatile business. Its cycles are vicious, even in normal times
These, however, are not normal times, and the mariners that haul the world's raw materials hither and yon across the high seas face a slew of challenges, from Chinese demand for iron ore to the supply of new vessels set to come into service in the coming months and years. In our most recent poll, we asked readers of TheStreet to weigh in on which dry-bulker's stock they considered the riskiest play in the industry (out of a group five companies).
The results, so far, are interesting: Perhaps holding to the ancient precepts of risk-reward, voters chose DryShips(DRYS Quote) as the riskiest stock -- and it wasn't even close, with the company garnering 45% of the clicks.
This follows an earlier survey by the TheStreet that showed that readers believe DryShips to be the hottest stock in the sector. It's also not exactly a shock, since DryShips' chief George Economou is known as a gambler -- though the evidence suggests that has gone a bit conservative with his chartering strategy.
In fact, DryShips has come out on top on all three of our dry-bulk polls; our previous survey asked readers to weigh in on which shipper had the savviest chartering strategy.
Second place in our riskiest poll goes to New York's own Eagle Bulk Shipping(EGLE Quote), taking 17.4% of the votes. Next were FreeSeas(FREE Quote) (15.7%), Excel Maritime(EXM Quote) (12.5%) and Paragon(symbol Quote) (nearly 12%).
-- Written by Scott Eden in New York
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10600774/1/riskiest-dry-bulk-stock-dryships.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Dry Bulk Stocks Fight Falling Baltic Dry Index
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dry-Bulk-Stocks-Fight-Falling-indie-2247290782.html?x=0&.v=1
On Thursday September 17, 2009, 12:19 pm EDT
Can a soggy summer trigger a rebound for bulk shipping prices?
Governments around the world have injected hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars into stimulus plans in an effort to buoy the global economy after the worst setback since the Great Depression. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), however, is proving that it takes a lot more to support the dry bulk shipping sector, which is considered a leading indicator by some economists. Michael McDonough at RealmMoney.com sees continued struggles for the sector, but indicated that a record U.S. harvest could boost rates for small and midsize vessels.
McDonough suggests that waning Chinese iron ore demand could weigh on the daily rate for capesize vessels, which this morning broke below $30,000. However, according to his report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is expecting a massive corn and soybean crop this year, potentially lifting demand for small to midsize vessels.
Components of the Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks Index would welcome a strong harvest, but it will take continued economic recovery to bring these stocks, many of which still trade more than -50% below 52-week highs, closer to pre-crisis levels. According to a report earlier this month in The Economic Times, Shipping Corporation of India Chairman and Managing Director S. Hajara sees "tremendous supply side pressure until 2011."
Still, investors are signaling they believe the worst is over for the industry. Shares of Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB - News) and Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM - News) have more than doubled over the last six months. Kirby (NYSE: KEX - News), the sector's largest U.S.-listed player by market-cap, has rallied by 50% over the period, though Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX - News), the runner-up by market-cap, remains negative.
In the last week DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS - News), Star Bulk Carriers (NASDAQ: SBLK - News), and Eagle Bulk Shipping (NASDAQ: EGLE - News), among others, have added 10% or more.
DRYS huge call volume on the October $7-$10 calls!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=DRYS&m=2009-10
Excellent Welcome Aboard!
Great board idea! A one stop place to post all my ship.
Been trading the ship out of EAGLE all year and DRYS to a smaller degree.
TNK is my favorite tanker play!!!!!!
sell me some of those please ! lol
option trading, I bought my SSW $10's for the same price , they are now $1...
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