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Housing Meltdown
by Peter Coy
Friday, February 1, 2008
Provided by Businessweek
Why home prices could drop 25% more on average before the market finally hits bottom
As Washington policymakers struggle to keep the U.S. out of recession, the swirling confusion over the housing market is making their job a lot tougher. Will American consumers keep shopping or be forced to pull back? Will banks lend freely or be hamstrung by mortgage defaults? What are the best policy options right now? Those and other important questions simply can't be answered without a good idea of whether home prices will rise, flatten out, or keep dropping.
Some experts have begun to suggest that a bottom is in sight. Pali Research analyst Stephen East wrote in a research note to his firm's clients on Jan. 25 that "the sun is not shining very brightly, but at least the worst of the storm has likely passed." With optimism budding, Standard & Poor's beaten-down index of homebuilder stocks soared 49% from Jan. 15 through Jan. 29.
More From BusinessWeek:
• Slide Show: Housing Prices Shed Gains?
• Slide Show: The 30% Dissolution
• Slide Show: Analyzing the Housing Crisis
But it's considerably more likely that the storm is still gathering force. On Jan. 30 the government said annual economic growth slowed to just 0.6% in the fourth quarter as home construction plunged at a 24% annual rate. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index fell 7.7% in November from the year before, the biggest decline since the index was created in 2000.
And that could be just the start. Brace yourself: Home prices could sink an additional 25% over the next two or three years, returning values to their 2000 levels in inflation-adjusted terms. That's even with the Federal Reserve's half-percentage-point rate cut on Jan. 30.
While a 25% decline is unprecedented in modern times, some economists are beginning to talk about it. "We now see potential for another 25% to 30% downside over the next two years," says David A. Rosenberg, North American economist for Merrill Lynch (MER), who until recently had expected a much smaller slide.
Shocking though it might seem, a decline of 25% from here would merely reverse the market's spectacular appreciation during the boom. It would put the national price level right back on its long-term growth trend line, a surprisingly modest 0.4% a year after inflation. There's a recent model for this kind of return to normalcy after the bursting of a financial bubble. The stock market decline that began in 2000 erased most of the gains of the boom of the second half of the 1990s, leaving investors with ordinary-sized returns.
Why might housing prices plunge violently from here? Remember the two powerful forces that pushed them up: lax lending standards and the conviction that housing is a fail-safe investment. Now both are working in reverse, depressing demand for housing faster than homebuilders can rein in supply. By reinstituting safeguards such as down payments and proof of income, lenders have disqualified thousands of potential buyers. And many people who do qualify have lost the desire to buy. "A down market is getting baked into expectations," says Chris Flanagan, head of research in JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) asset-backed securities group. "People say: I'm not buying until prices are lower.'" He predicts prices will fall about 25%, bottoming in 2010.
Nobody can be sure how far prices will decline. Still, if prices drop that much, it could mean big trouble for the U.S. economy, which is already on the brink of recession. It would blow a hole in the balance sheets of banks and households, slicing more than $5 trillion off household wealth. That's roughly the size of the drop in stock market wealth from the peak in early 2000, a big reason for the recession of 2001. Yale economist Robert J. Shiller, a longtime housing bear, points out that a housing decline that started in 1925 and ran until 1932 weakened banks and contributed to the Great Depression, which started in the U.S. in 1929.
MACARONI AND CHEESE
It has become a cliché, but an accurate one, that Americans used their homes as ATMs during the boom years. They lined up for cash-out refis or home-equity loans to turn housing wealth into spending money.
So far, the amount of equity being withdrawn has remained surprisingly strong—$700 billion at an annual rate in the third quarter. But it's bound to dwindle if prices keep falling, giving the economy a further downward push. According to an analysis conducted for BusinessWeek by Zillow.com, the real estate Web site, a further 20% decline in prices nationwide would mean that two-thirds of people who bought in the past year would owe more than their homes would be worth, meaning they couldn't take out cash if they wanted to.
Another day of the Dow moving higher on light volume, lets see if the market can get another fix of interest rates. This fed has been dealing and the market has an unhealthy addiction.
Markets are selling the rallies. Worse January on the books thus far. 600 point swings and volatility are clues as to what's happening. I'm actually tired of hearing the cries for bottoms on CNBC.
true, some major companies already doing this plus layoffs.
Please stay clear of the financials as they will likely cut divy like C
watching, looking for divy ones.
How have you been trading these markets Mick?
I agree with all that, we need capit. on all indexes and stocks and a HUGE VIX spike!
I'm just happy to be up 21% this month so far while everyone else is down -10%. Then Cramer comes out and says to sell the stocks I have puts on, that's just great lol.
Maybe Bush will come out and resign tomorrow, we'd only be so lucky.
from jan.2003 til about sept.2007 " i see five point of interest. the five wave peaks ascending trendline."
now in huge decline since second fall from 14-k area. so double top breakdown imho.
to stop declining for now, dow 30 will need a huge volume reversal day.
but dow 30 may have to drop 500/600 points in one day for a complete reversal. imho
from the dot com crash it almost took 3 years to reverse clinton era last two years which he didn't nothing to turn declining markets around.
i see bush drumming in middle east for help which liberals didn't do for dot com crash.
i had to reread what i said. you got me a laffer with that one.
o.k., i'm reading. i see 1999/2000 ... jan. ,2000 was the last one looking this bad since bush took da oval.
"I'll pay every America $5K for your vote!"
Check out the VIX if you have a time. I've liked it for some time but haven't owned any. My friend had contracts that expired on Wed, I told him to roll them into Feb. Check this amazing stat on the market, if the Nasdaq and S&P 500 close January below these figures, it will be the worst January in the 50+ year history of the HOLY
STOCK TRADER'S ALMANAC 2008
here is something that i have been hearing. britain want u.s.a. badly. you know we beat da lobsters.
excerpt:
Worried Americans Tap
into British Gov't-Issued
"Commonwealth Shares"
(& Pocket Extra $60K-$176K Without Ever Leaving Home)
Dear Reader,
Never before in US History have Americans been so grateful for the British Gov't...
Thanks to a falling US Dollar, a bankrupt Social Security system... and a lackluster stock market...
Thousands of concerned Americans have been looking outside the US for retirement security. And the situation they've uncovered in Britain could be the answer.
Take 65-year old Jim Nelson, for example.
In the past 3 years, Nelson's collected more income than most Americans collect in a lifetime from Social Security.
For every $100 Nelson invested, he's received 209 times his money in return.
How is this possible?
You see, Nelson is among the thousands of smart Americans who have been collecting surprisingly large sums of income through a unique British Gov't initiative my colleagues and I call "Commonwealth Shares."
British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher created this Cold War Initiative in the Winter of 1979 (with support from US President Ronald Reagan) to rescue the British economy from Depression and to enrich the financial well-being of all Brits.
In October 1986, the British Government officially granted Americans access.
And now you -- as an American -- can take advantage of this unique British initiative too, without ever leaving home... no matter how old you are, where you live, and even if you're already collecting from Social Security, 401ks, or any kind of US pensions...
You don't have to fly or even place a call to anywhere in Britain either.
Most Americans will probably never hear about this opportunity in the States... even though it's incredibly lucrative and super-easy to take advantage of.
Eric Hebron – a Mid-Western asset manager – explains why:
"It is not surprising that many investors have never heard of [COMMONWEALTH SHARES] and the advantages they provide. It is an unusual stockbroker that will recommend a program when no commission is involved. Since no commission is paid... the virtues of these plans are often unsung."
In other words, US financial "experts" will only tell you about opportunities they can profit from.
But why would the British government help Americans pay for retirement...
And how can you possibly get in on this deal?
I've spent the past three months looking into the situation firsthand...
I've even sent several researchers to London to collect the necessary documents.
Let me share with you what I've found...
"It was so easy... "
~32 year old Erin Herrara, as quoted in the Chicago Tribune
So, what does an obscure, 1979 British Gov't initiative have to do with you and your retirement?
Erin Herrara – a graphic designer from Chicago – asked herself the same question, when friends tipped her off to a special deal made available on COMMONWEALTH SHARES.
Never having invested even in regular stocks... the 32-year old Herrara was naturally a bit skeptical.
However, the logic behind COMMONWEALTH SHARES "proved irresistible," as Herrara told the Chicago Tribune, so she invested $200...
"Everybody told me it's a very good deal," Herrara said. "And it was so easy."
So far, she's collected 20 checks since enrolling in "Commonwealth Shares", boosting her tiny $200 initial stake to an average of $5,099.24.
Can you think of any other investment in the United States realistically capable of providing that sort of return, with such regularity?
So, what exactly are "Commonwealth Shares"... and how can you possibly get in on this deal?
Let me explain...
"Quick and Large Profits... "
~The Guardian
The Commonwealth Shares program got underway in 1979... as a radical new solution to Britain's worst economic crisis to date...
Janitors, paramedics, and thousands of the country's key personnel went on strike. People mobbed the streets of London, staging violent riots.
As the country began to slip into depression, Margaret Thatcher – Britain's newly elected Prime Minister – created Commonwealth Shares to save the retirement of millions of everyday British citizens...
In short, for the first time in 33 years, the British Government officially allowed the public to own equity stakes in the country's biggest and most valuable businesses.
You see, ever since the end of World War II, the British Government owned every single share of the country's largest industries.
I'm talking about steel, oil, gas, electricity, water, agriculture... . In other words, businesses vital to the British national economy... to any nation's economy, for that matter.
46 major British businesses in total. Each one a Government-owned monopoly.
The British Government staffed these companies with government employees. And they made it illegal for any competitors to enter the market.
This probably sounds a bit strange, I know...
Here in the US, our Gov't allows the private sector to own and run American businesses.
Not so in 1970s Great Britain...
For example, Britain didn't have several Big Telecomm companies like Verizon, AT&T, & Sprint...
Instead, they had just ONE Big Telecomm company – British Telecomm – which monopolized the Telecommunications industry for ALL of Great Britain. The government owned every single share of this monopoly.
Under the Commonwealth Shares program, the Government finally allowed private citizens to own some of these shares too.
Can you imagine what it would be like here in the States, if you and I couldn't own stock in a single US company?
What if shares of Microsoft, Exxon, Chevron, and thousands of other profitable US companies were essentially off-limits to you – for more than 30 years?!
So what do you think happened when the British Government first began issuing Commonwealth Shares?
The British public ate it up!
Everyone from wealthy London aristocrats... to folks like Lawrence Butts staked their claim...
Butts – a Manchester janitor – registered for Commonwealth Shares in 1984. If you'd invested just $300 when Butts did, your stake would have climbed an incredible 33,613% in value... and would be worth $100,830 today.
So... how can Commonwealth Shares cost so little... while also generating such extraordinarily large returns? I'll show you why in just a few moments.
By 1986, roughly 9 million Brits had enrolled in the Commonwealth Shares initiative... and the British economy had gone from one of the worst in the world, to one of the fastest growing...
In fact, the program generated so much money both for the Government and for private citizens... that the British Government ended up selling off pretty much every State monopoly.
You could have bought Commonwealth Shares in pretty much any of the 46 British Government Monopolies... and watched your investment continuously rise in value...
a 45,090% from British Gas a 22,115% from the Pennon Group
(British Water)
a 33,450% from Scottish & Southern
(British Electricity) a 58,239% from Severn Trent plc
(British Water)
a 31,105% from United Utilities
(British Water) a 220,056% from Forth Ports plc (British Ports)
a 62,714% from British Airways a 17,914% from British Cable
a 13,708% from BAE Systems (British Aerospace)
hmmm, trump? going to announce to run for president tonight on fox t.v.?
good point
glad you are doing well.
re
People really need to be mindful of what is really going on. It was pretty obviously after Intel disappointed and the market went up after testing key supports that they were going to find a reason to sell. The market whines when it doesn't get it's way, ie. 100 point cut or an emergency cut. Trump was just on CNBC saying they should cut 100 points and see what happens. Is it really that bad that we should shoot first and ask questions later?
People really need to be mindful of what is really going on. It was pretty obviously after Intel disappointed and the market went up after testing key supports that they were going to find a reason to sell. The market whines when it doesn't get it's way, ie. 100 point cut or an emergency cut. Trump was just on CNBC saying they should cut 100 points and see what happens. Is it really that bad that we should shoot first and ask questions later?
in your writes,,,do you have a chart to show these indicators? i know you have great software for indicators.
i'm reading this carefully. hmmm. is the consenses finally getting da pix?
STOCK TRADER'S ALMANAC 2008:
- January Barometer predicts year's course with .754 batting average
- Every down January's first five days preceded full-year gains 86.1% of the time; in election years, only years 1988 & 1956 have been wrong
- November, December, and January constitute the year's best three-month span, a 4.9% S&P gain
- "January Effect" now starts in mid-December and favors small-cap stocks.
Worse January 1960 -8.4%
Worse week in January was 1/24/03 -5.3%
Worse Day in Jan -6.9% 1-8-88
Key support on the DJI
12,517.94
12,501.76
To have a strong up year in 2008, we need to close January above 12657.20 or we will have a bad year.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Talk is cheap, show me the money!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=11610
goods to ya. you probably don't remember me saying big bad bear market.
all talk on cnbc is talking big bad bear is here.
i started last summer when financials gave way on subprime loans.
the longer the delay for dow 30 to find their true value "DA BIGGER THE DECLINE."
"WHAT I MEAN BY THIS FALSE MONEY SUPPLIED BY THE FEDS."
feds can't print it fast enough.
"also again, i say OUR gov't one day will ask all countries to forgive U.S.A. DEBTS."
and they already have the new money in da vaults with a gold standard backing.
this is why GOLD is seeking its true valus since greenspnomics held GOLD DOWN FOR SO MANY YEARS.
NYBob said true value is $3500 GOLD PPO.
analyst say $2300 GOLD PPO.
STOCK TRADER'S ALMANAC 2008:
- January Barometer predicts year's course with .754 batting average
- Every down January's first five days preceded full-year gains 86.1% of the time; in election years, only years 1988 & 1956 have been wrong
- November, December, and January constitute the year's best three-month span, a 4.9% S&P gain
- "January Effect" now starts in mid-December and favors small-cap stocks.
Worse January 1960 -8.4%
Worse week in January was 1/24/03 -5.3%
Worse Day in Jan -6.9% 1-8-88
Key support on the DJI
12,517.94
12,501.76
To have a strong up year in 2008, we need to close January above 12657.20 or we will have a bad year.
Try something like MSFT or CSCO, those will work
as far as i remember "tried one and kept on the flashing ads stuff."
Cash is king, especially with all this extra volatility they're giving us. Gold futures are down .60 right now.
this is the way to stay liquid.
RE:
No doubt, I guess I was a bit early on selling part of my gold. I just didn't want to be caught 100% in the 5% down move they love to do.
Trading Tip of the Day
Don't get hold options over night unless you can feel the pain of gaps against you.
Try a different symbol, it does that when it doesn't work. It predicts the next 30 days based on the charts.
No doubt, I guess I was a bit early on selling part of my gold. I just didn't want to be caught 100% in the 5% down move they love to do.
i'm not sure how this one works. it does a lot of this.
hi SMF , good afternoon. i did some reviewing at gold seekers.
looks good.
i placed you in the ibox at TENS.
#board-5322
in this area.
http://www.GoldSeek.com
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1199478880.php 01/10/08:
SMF Trading ,,, see #board-11610
A nice relief rally on short covering. Goldman Sachs as 2008 GDP target at .8%
Do yourself a favor and go to this site. It really touches on the inside game Wall St. likes to play.
http://www.basherbusters.com/
The Case for Gold and Oil Stocks
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1199814600.php
Commercial Shorts getting SQUEEZED!
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - January 04, 2008
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1199478880.php
Metals - Gold hits all-time high above 875 usd on weak dollar, oil bounce UPDATE
Tue, Jan 8 2008, 10:24 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com
(Updates prices, adds details, updates headline)
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Gold hit a fresh all-time high above 875 usd in early London trade as a rebound in oil prices and further dollar weakness sparked a fresh round of buying.
"Currencies and oil are the main drivers behind this at the moment," said Commerzbank analyst Rory McVeigh. "When stops were taken out at 870 usd we saw a real rush of buying. It's held above 870 usd so we should see it consolidate now until the Americans come in later today."
At 10.03 am, spot gold was up at 872.90 usd an ounce against 859.30 usd in late New York trades yesterday, having earlier hit a fresh all-time high of 875.80 usd.
Gold has risen by over 200 usd since the onset of the credit crunch in mid-August last year, as a trinity of factors have collided propelling it to a series of record highs.
The weak US dollar and a skyrocketing oil price have boosted the precious metal as market players look for an alternative to the most common source of cash reserves and a hedge against inflationary pressures, while the economic uncertainty emanating from the subprime debacle has seen gold reassert itself as a store of wealth in times of turmoil.
Oil prices have rebounded towards 96 usd today after retreating from the 100 usd mark on profit taking and economic slowdown fears over the previous two sessions.
The dollar has slipped throughout the morning as market players weigh the possibility of further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve at the upcoming meeting on January 30.
Additional buying motivation today is coming from the start of gold future contract trading within China tomorrow, with some market players positioning ahead of the launch.
"There may be some buying ahead of these futures going live overnight," said JP Morgan analyst Michael Jansen, adding that he expects gold to trade in a range between 800 usd and 950 usd an ounce in Q1 08.
In other precious metals, silver tracked gold higher up at 15.42 usd against 15.18 usd in late New York trades yesterday.
Hochschild Mining today said it maintains its stance on both the silver and gold price. "We remain positive on the fundamentals for silver and gold given continued US dollar weakness, heightened geopolitical tensions, depleted above ground stocks and increasing investment demand," the company said in its Q4 07 production results. "In addition to macroeconomic drivers, we believe strong industrial demand for silver will continue in 2008 and will reflect positively on its price."
Elsewhere, platinum was rising once more at 1,538 usd per ounce against 1,525 usd in late trades yesterday, after a period of consolidation since the metal hit a historic high of 1,553.50 usd an ounce last week. Its sister metal palladium held steady at 370 usd per ounce.
d.sheppard@thomson.com
ds1/jlc/slm
COPYRIGHT
Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2007. All rights reserved.
The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial News.
Already in a Recession?
By Jon Nadler Jan 7 2008 2:41PM
Good Afternoon,
The start of the first full trading week of the year found the gold market's participants looking for fresh directional cues from the oil and US dollar price tickers. For today, the metal's direction was backwards. Bullion prices dropped to $855.30 on the bid side overnight as the trade watched the US dollar carve out fresh gains which placed it above 76.15 on the index, and then watched crude oil dropping a whopping $2.50 to the mid-$95 area today amid perceptions that economic slowdowns and warm winter weather in the US Northeast will dent demand for it.
Friday's unemployment figures continued to be a palpable presence in the marketplace, lending support on price dips as expectations of a cut in interest rates not only reasserted themselves, but started to lean towards half a point in the magnitude of same. At this point, the crowd appears to await some words of wisdom or hints wrapped in flowery metaphors from Fed boss Bernanke on Thursday. In the interim, the trade is warily eyeing a second possibly prolonged hiatus in India's gold offtake in as many years, amid high prices which are thus far bringing scrap sellers in droves to the local bazaars in lieu of eager buyers of newly made trinkets. Ditto the situation in China, which appears to record some skepticism among investors for the purely speculative product that the launch of gold futures trading on Wednesday is going to be. Looks like a bird in the hand...
New York spot gold closed at $859.30 per ounce, down $3.70 amid efforts to balance the positive and negative economic and geopolitical news that have buffeted the market over the holiday period. Prices gyrated on either side of the 'unchanged' marker for the first half-hour of trading. Equity markets continued to reflect uncertainty as the year gets underway and thus funds continue to seek the shelter offered by commodities (oil) and quasi-currencies (gold) until the situation becomes clearer and a trend emerges. Some support was lent to metals from the 'harassment' of US warships by Iranian boats in the Straits of Hormuz. Oil prices did not appear to deviate from their decline (but briefly) on the news. We could get into a long story about how oil flows will almost certainly not be disrupted in the area, but that is a topic for another day.
Silver declined 14 cents to close at $15.16 amid the same slowdown fears that were affecting oil. Platinum lost a more substantial $20.00 to $1521.00 per ounce absent fresh news in the fundamentals and the possible start of a corrective move towards the upper $1400's. Volatility will likely stay with us as the US dollar has not convincingly established an uptrend for the moment, and crude oil remains within striking distance of the $100 bull's-eye despite its recent easing. Gold may trade in the narrower channel it is attempting to carve out at this time, but a break to higher ground can still materialize, given the overall mood of the crowd. More importantly, let's see how solid the supports prove beneath the market, should they come to be tested. The ebb and flow of hedge fund money will continue to provide plenty of thrills in coming weeks.
Speculative focus continues to orbit around the Fed and its possible next steps, and has been the primary motivator of the premia we have seen since the last scary jobs numbers hit the wires early last September. No doubt, the Fed remains in a tight spot, trying to at once stimulate the economy sufficiently to avoid a recession and keep consumers consuming, while at the same time trying to keep energy cost and printing press-induced inflation in check. At least as far as Merrill Lynch is concerned, the former is a moot point, as of right now. Marketwatch reports that ML is of the opinion that:
"The U.S. economy is in a recession, David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch, wrote Monday. "Friday's employment report strongly suggests that an official recession has arrived," Rosenberg said in a note to clients. Other Wall Street economists have said much the same thing. "The key question now is how deep the recession will be and how long it will last," wrote Richard Berner and David Greenlaw, economists for Morgan Stanley, in a note to clients on Monday. Over the weekend, Harvard economist Martin Feldstein said he believed there was a greater than 50% of a recession in the United States this year. Feldstein is on the committee of academic economists who typically determine when recessions begin and end."
Closer to the home front for us, the "R" label has implications for base and precious metals demand, although Merrill is giving gold a trading range and average price projection not too dissimilar from the one we have put forth recently (calling for a range of from $640 to $940 and an average price close to $730 per ounce for 2008).
"Merrill Lynch & Co. is forecasting spot gold prices will average $750 an ounce in 2008, up 7.6% from 2007 and ranging between $700 and $900 an ounce, helped by good supply-demand fundamentals and investor interest in the bullion's ability to protect against a weakening U.S. econommy and sliding U.S. dollar. In a report released to news media Monday, Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Jalonen also forecast silver prices averaging $14 an ounce this year."
Keep alert for funds at play, while they continue to throw the dice ahead of Thursday's Fed dissertation. The street appears to continue to believe that it can shape the policies of the central bank by actively stomping its feet. We can thus still expect a relatively turbulent period in prices [and not just gold's] for the three and a half weeks ahead.
Best Regards,
Jon Nadler
Senior Analyst
Kitco Bullion Dealers Montreal
****
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in precious metal products, commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
right on, it is o.k. as they are.
this seems to be a good and excellent person to have around ya.
RE:
Thanks, I work for Mario Marciano. He's hands down one of the best traders out there. He successfully shorted the 87 crash, so he's been around the block relative to these young hedge fund managers who's accounts are blowing up.
answer: the trending market is soon to call bear imho.
These pictures are from Fidelity Active Trader Pro, I current use Realtick which is far superior for charts, but it's also $280/month/
Thanks, I work for Mario Marciano. He's hands down one of the best traders out there. He successfully shorted the 87 crash, so he's been around the block relative to these young hedge fund managers who's accounts are blowing up.
In order to post pictures on Ihub, you need to retake the pictures and upload them again and repost. It's actually somewhat time consuming.
i don't know why double posting but it has been doing it for awhile on ihub. looks like ihub software is very sensitive.
page looks interesting.
http://www.stopdaytrading.com/
to chat make sure you do a messgae for me to see ya.
i think it will dress up nicley. you do know your TA.
like on doing a lot of trendlines on a over size chart "it takes a long time to open."
i have ya marked and we can chart more about tradin and networking ideas.
so you don't have this stuff anymore? just a trader or just a chatter?
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