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For bwldforbucks1...
Sorry for getting back to you this late, but I've been on vacation for the past several weeks and off internet. I'll try and answer some of your questions.
Could you provide your general thoughts on how you see the infrastructure (topping facility, wells, pipelines, etc.) coming together in concert with necessary equity / debt raises?...
...the question is, what is the timing of these expenditures and where does it come from? I understand that until they have proven a viable asset (oil reserves) and cash flows most of this will probably have to come from SNV equity.
Once that is established, could they potentially project finance a topping facility and / or pipeline etc., if they have established viable offtake contracts? Or will it be a slower, more gradual approach that focuses on slowly building out wells / production and building up internally generated cash flow and expanding development in that manner. Or will they JV and share capital costs?
PIPELINE SYSTEM
Let's talk about the pipelines first. Iraq already has a pipeline system, although archaic. There are two major and several minor pipelines. To give you an indication of where these are located, please go to Google Maps:
IRAQ-TURKEY PIPELINE
The first major pipeline is the Iraq-Turkey pipeline which runs north-south. It starts in Bagdad, follows the highway northbound through Samarra, Tikrit, west of Mosul into Cizre (Turkey). It basically goes right through Sonoro's first prospect oil field.
IRAQ STRATEGIC PIPELINE
The other major pipeline runs from the shipping port in Basra northwest (again following the highway) to Karbala, and then a straight line from there past the two lakes to Ramadi (directly west of Bagdad). From there on, it follows the highway to Al Haqlaniyak.
IRAQ-SYRIA & KIRKUK PIPELINES
At Al Haqlaniyak, the Iraq Strategic Pipeline joins up with the Iraq-Syria & Kirkuk pipelines.
The Iraq-Syria pipeline runs northwest from Al Haqlaniyak, following the highway (#12 on Google Maps) into Al Bukamal (Syria).
The Kirkuk pipeline runs eastwards from Al Haqlaniyak, north of Tikrit, into Kirkuk. The Kirkuk pipeline intersects with the Iraq-Turkey pipeline just to the south of where SNV will be drilling its first prospect.
Now having said all of the above, I asked Richard at the AGM if they will be using Iraqi's pipeline system. I got the general sense from him that they will not (at least not initially).
While starting up, they will be selling their oil into the domestic market (this has already been stated several times in their news releases). What he means by this is that local entrepreneurs will be arriving at the drill site with their own personal tanker trucks. He then fills up their trucks by selling them oil at a discount. These locals then drive their trucks and re-sell the oil at refineries located either in Jordan or Turkey.
Nevertheless, the sale is made at the site, not when the trucks arrive at the refinery (Sonoro will not be selling their oil to refineries... Sonoro sells the oil to the local entrepreneurs, who in turn transport the oil and re-sell it at a profit for themselves to refineries located in other countries).
As such, since Sonoro is selling the oil at a discount directly into the local market, there will be no capital requirement towards the transportation of the oil.
TOPPING FACILITY
In the future, the plan is to re-direct the oil towards their own diesel/kerosene Topping facility. At the AGM, they talked about several ways of financing the Topping facily. A 5,000 bbd facility will cost them around $30 Million. A 30,000 bbd facility will be in the neighbourhood of $75 Million.
Once they have a proven reserve, they will be able to some debt financing. The amount of financing will depend on the size of the reserve. Another option they are contemplating is a JV on the topping facility (with the partner footing the bill for the entire facility).
Whichever option they choose, the Topping facility will not be ready until the Fall of 2012. As such, you can count of them selling their oil into the domestic market (local entrepreneurs with their own tanker trucks) for at least the next year.
Finally some news.
I was expecting the next news release to confirm the award of the drilling tender - but instead we have an update on the size of the drilling target. Sounds like it is too big to miss.
The news release indicates that they are still planning to drill in September. Any thoughts on the drilling tender? Are they going to announce something or is that just a foregone conclusion?
NEWS
Sonoro Energy Ltd
Symbol C : SNV
Shares Issued 217,172,020
Close 2011-07-25 C$ 0.225
Recent Sedar Documents
Sonoro identifies 1.23 billion barrels asphalt in Iraq
2011-07-26 03:33 ET - News Release
Mr. Richard Wadsworth reports
SONORO ANNOUNCES CONTINGENT RESOURCE EVALUATION ON INITIAL PROSPECT IN NORTH SALAH AD DIN, IRAQ
Sonoro Energy Ltd. has released the findings of an independent contingent resource evaluation report that summarizes expected resource volumes on its initial prospect in Salah ad Din, within its licence area in Iraq. The report highlights the probabilistic volumes of contingent resources within the North Salah ad Din prospect in Salah ad Din province. The contingent resource evaluation covers only the company's initial North Salah ad Din prospect and supplements the company's previously announced prospective resource evaluation covering Sonoro's entire licence area.
The report identifies approximately 1,233,000,000 barrels (P50) of original asphalt (heavy oil) in place and contingent resources of approximately 141 million barrels (P50), estimated on a recoverable asphalt (heavy oil) basis, specific only to the company's initial prospect at North Salah ad Din, Iraq. These values are cited as 100-per-cent gross working interest volumes and not on a revenue share basis in the absence of an economic evaluation. Sonoro holds a 70-per-cent working interest in the entire licence, with Berkeley Petroleum Mesopotamia Asphalts Ltd. holding the remaining 30 per cent.
Contingent resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but the applied projects are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies. Contingent resources may include, for example, projects for which there are currently no viable markets, or where commercial recovery is dependent on technology under development, or where the evaluation of the accumulation is insufficient to clearly assess commerciality. Contingent resources are further categorized in accordance with the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be subclassified based on project maturity and/or characterized by their economic status.
The P50 quantity or best estimate is considered to be the best estimate derived from the probabilistic analysis. This means that there should be at least a 50-per-cent probability (P50) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.
Richard Wadsworth, president and chief executive officer, commented: "The company is pleased that our first prospect has been independently identified as a 1.2-billion-barrel prospect, further supporting the company's strategy of pursuing low-risk, large-resource prospects with early production and development opportunities. The company continues to progress its operations. We expect to finalize civil and drilling rig contracts soon, allowing the company to commence mobilization and operations."
The independent evaluation of asphalt (heavy oil) potential for Sonoro's North Salah ad Din prospect was prepared by RPS Energy Canada Ltd., a qualified independent reserves auditor. The independent resource assessment was prepared in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 -- standards of disclosure for oil and gas activities and the Canadian oil and gas evaluation handbook. The effective date of the report is July 1, 2011. RPS's evaluation was limited to asphalt (heavy oil) resources (defined as less than 25 degrees API) present in the Tertiary Jeribe formation (down to a maximum depth of approximately 450 metres) for the North Salah ad Din prospect, within the Shirqat district in northern Iraq. Sonoro expects to commence drilling operations of three appraisal wells into this prospect in September of 2011.
There is no certainty that any portion of the contingent resources will be discovered. If a discovery is made, there is no certainty that it will be developed or, if it is developed, there is no certainty as to the timing of such development or that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the contingent resources.
We seek Safe Harbor.
MHT, how concerned are you that we are still waiting on the drilling contracts? I realized this is not a huge concern (yet), but it does make me a little uneasy that they will be able to deliver on time and commence drilling in late September. Do you think this delay will have any effect on the timing of the drilling?
jwboorma,
I'm interested to hear all opinions for sure, MHT just seemed to be the only one quasi active on here.
Completely agree on the first point. You can see it in the interview.
Regarding the netback, if you look at the assumptions, that netback calculation is calculated per the "Assumptions" in the lower right corner of the slide, which specifies a $70 / bbl sales price. I believe they stated initial production would be sold at a 70% discount to market, which I assume means it won't be processed by SNV(I'm not sure where the closest refinery is located or how the "local markets" would treat it). Given that I assume we won't be bearing these processing costs (hence the 70% discount), I'm curious to see what SNV will actually net on these initial sales. And secondly, if this margin will be enough to bridge them to facilitate the project / reserve based financing. I'm not concerned in the least bit given the brainpower and experience we have, but I would like to understand it more precisely.
Great information here, as I said, technically I still have a lot more to learn on these.
Regarding the light oil, that hopefully will be decided shortly when the Iraqis get their act together and pass the "hydrocarbons" law that has been shelved for years. One of the many issues they are trying to decide is who administers what types of oil. I believe those fields designated as "currently producing" are administered by the national government, I'm just not sure on any newly discovered fields, which SNV's would be (via SaD). Rights to this would be an absolute boon to the company.
I think BNK is the perfect comp for SNV. Even aside from the fact the contracts are relatively similar, its the same type of oil and also, and probably most importantly, Wads founded it.
I have no idea on share price, except that if he executes as one would expect, it is a lot higher than here. If you compare SNV to other juniors, I think it becomes obvious the market is placing a ton of risk (rightfully so) on the Iraq factor. The potential is staggering if they can execute.
I believe somebody mentioned that Wads might try to drop the drilling contracts in concert with an upgraded resource report. Makes sense. But obviously this is pure speculation.
Hey Guys,
I've been thinking quite a bit about Sonoro lately, and although I am no MHT, I will certainly offer my opinions. I have watched the presentation with Richard over and over again and feel there are some instances where his facial expressions betray him, there are several instances where he tries in vain to conceal a smile and ends up squinting and smirking which i found both hilarious and encouraging because i feel there is more upside than he is letting on and he knows it.
Anyways, down to the facts. Currently Sonoro has warrants that will expire in January 2012 worth approximately 20 million dollars, this does not include stock options which the management of this company seem quite comfortable to exercise so far. I firmly believe that all of the warrants will be exercised which SHOULD mitigate the need for any excessive financing. Because the management of this company is so heavily invested equity wise in the company I believe that all the major players have built their positions and as richard eluded in the interview, project financing or reserve based financing will be options going forward. Furthermore, I was reading some articles at www.heavyoilinfo.com to try and get a better understanding or the economics and development time lines of these types of projects (nothing can substitute your own DD)and came across EPF (Early Production Facility) which are modular, and be added upon, and can be LEASED. So if each well is producing the predicted 500 bop/d and we get are predicted netback of $19.71 then we are making roughly $30,000 a day AFTER taxes which should cover lease payments until we grow the operation. Furthermore, this is an open question because I'm really reaching and thinking out loud..BUT..if we do put these wells into production in Q3, does that constitute commercialization and fulfill our obligation to carry Berkley? In which case they will have to start paying their fair 30% for our continued operations?
To address the time lines and the perceived tardiness of the drilling contacts I admit, I too was once frustrated, now, after READING about the process of field development, well drilling and the associated complications that can occur I am much more comfortable with our current pace. We must remember that we are drilling a bore hole into essentially muck...now if this muck is heated due to friction it becomes less like muck and more like liquid which can compromise the integrity of the borehole which is why they (as MHT eluded to) will be taking their sweet time drilling, changing bits and ensuring integrity is kept intact because if they screw up these wells this stock will be taken to the woodshed BIG TIME. Second issue they may encounter and for some reason seems overlooked....Sand...yes we are basically pumping sand and its a bit more complicated than pumping water. So we have to be very careful on how these wells are designed. Unfortunately we cannot use any SAGD type recovery methods and as stated in the presentation will be using straight water. Perhaps in time they will consider solvents but I believe starting off they need to maximize the economics so they don't run the risk of disappointing the market on the economics of the project.
I think 2012 will be our year, they will be testing all three "play fairways" as they call them, and what interests me is the big green zone in the middle with 18-22 API and more seismic data then we can shake a stick at. I feel that once Sonoro really gets rolling they will simply drill deeper to the lighter oil we all know is present in Iraq and really blow up, but im sure that is many years out.
I am interested in anyone's opinion regarding share price. In comparison BNK is currently producing 13,000 bop/d in Albania with similar API characteristics and although recently have been brutalized in the markets due to missed targets and under performing wells for a variety of reasons is currently valued at 6 dollars, and as much as the high end of 9 dollars in march before technical issues. They have similar shares outstanding, is it possible one can assume a 3 to 4 dollar price target with 5000 bop/d production in Iraq in conjunction with exploration targets? (I believe BNK is tapped out exploration wise)
Lastly, and this goes back to the financing end of things, if you look at our recent additions to the the board, i think its possible given our banking connections we could have project facility financing for our topping facility, and farm out for royalties some of what I would hope, our less prospective areas and keep the best ones to ourselves!
As always, feel free to punch holes and disagree, its the exercise that counts!
PS. given today (july 11) volume, I think the contracts will be awarded tomorrow (july 12) or wednesday at the latest.
PPS. Does anyone have access to the trading data for today, someone picked up 398k shares at 1130ish in one shot bumping us to .24 cents, usually I'd check the tmx data but didnt notice until i got home from work and it didnt go back that far.
jw
croman, thank you for posting, great interview with a very confident R. W.
My expectations are high, I am looking for a 300% increase in share price by the end of September.
MHT, what is your share price estimate? Last year you were always spot-on. Thank you.
check out this interview with Sonoro CEO R.W.
http://www.smallcappower.com/microsite/sonoro_energy_ltd.html
Good things coming by the end of the year.
A little bit of patience
MHT,
Makes a lot of sense, thanks.
Got a follow-up question whenever you get the chance. Could you provide your general thoughts on how you see the infrastructure (topping facility, wells, pipelines, etc.) coming together in concert with necessary equity / debt raises? A pro forma “sources and uses” commentary if you will.
To further clarify my inquiry, I’ll briefly explain my thoughts. They obviously will have capital needs in the hundreds of millions at a minimum. So the question is, what is the timing of these expenditures and where does it come from? I understand that until they have proven a viable asset (oil reserves) and cash flows most of this will probably have to come from SNV equity. Once that is established, could they potentially project finance a topping facility and / or pipeline etc., if they have established viable offtake contracts? Or will it be a slower, more gradual approach that focuses on slowly building out wells / production and building up internally generated cash flow and expanding development in that manner. Or will they JV and share capital costs?
Along these lines, I noticed one of the highlights of the management descriptions of our COO noted his doubling of the Qarn Alam assets (that closely resemble our prospective ones) in the PDO to 90k boe / d in only three years. I think you see where I’m going with this……what do you think is possible?
Any response is greatly appreciated.
MHT, did you hear anything about the drilling contract?
End of June passed, mid July in a few days and no news released yet.
bwldforbucks1............
To answer your question: Different Reservoirs
We are not talking about light oil lying beneath heavier oil within the same reservoir; rather light oil reservoirs lying below heavier oil reservoirs. Wikipedia talks about how reservoirs are formed:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum
Crude oil reservoirs
Three conditions must be present for oil reservoirs to form: a source rock rich in hydrocarbon material buried deep enough for subterranean heat to cook it into oil; a porous and permeable reservoir rock for it to accumulate in; and a cap rock (seal) or other mechanism that prevents it from escaping to the surface. Within these reservoirs, fluids will typically organize themselves like a three-layer cake with a layer of water below the oil layer and a layer of gas above it, although the different layers vary in size between reservoirs.
Because most hydrocarbons are lighter than rock or water, they often migrate upward through adjacent rock layers until either reaching the surface or becoming trapped within porous rocks (known as reservoirs) by impermeable rocks above. However, the process is influenced by underground water flows, causing oil to migrate hundreds of kilometres horizontally or even short distances downward before becoming trapped in a reservoir. When hydrocarbons are concentrated in a trap, an oil field forms, from which the liquid can be extracted by drilling and pumping.
So to answer your question as to why the light oil reservoirs are found below heavier ones, it has to do with the Geothermal Gradient. For instance in Western Canada, the increase in temperature with depth (Geothermal Gradient) is 1.8 degrees C per 100 meters. Without going into all the chemistry, light oil reservoirs need a higher temperature to be formed, which is usually deeper.
MHT,
I started following SNV a few months back and have found your posts very informative and helpful.
Real basic one for you if you don't mind. How is the lighter oil found deeper underground than the heavy oil? I'm new to oil and gas, but I thought API was a measure of density, and that since heavy oil is more dense than light oil, shouldnt the oil get more dense as you go deeper?
Seismic Data
If you refer to page 17 of the latest presentation, you will notice these blue lines drawn across the province. These are the seismic data lines that they acquired from a 3rd party, and represent over 600 KM. With this data, they've identified several oil reservoirs.
Originally, they were just going to drill on top of the old abandoned well (because they knew that oil was already there) while completing the seismic work on the rest of the province. This would have taken them at least one year, plus an additional 6 months for analysis, and cost over $20 Million.
With the seismic data in hand, not only did they save themselves the money, but also a lot of time. Although they received a 5-year monopoly on exploration, they won't need it now, since they already know where the fields are located. Now, it's just a question of how deep this fields extend. The oil gets lighter as they go deeper.
Why is SNV moving so slow?
You have to put everything into perspective; there is a reason for it. Richard Wadsworth is an ops guy and he has a real good reason for the timeline.
First as I stated in an earlier post, the awarding of the drilling contracts will be done this month. This should stabilize the share price, if not move it a bit higher. Then the construction begins.
Initially the Company was going to drill on top of the old abandoned well from 1935. However, when they got their hands on the seismic data, they noticed that the old well was not constructed on the highest pressure point of the oil reservoir.
Please refer to page 14 of the latest presentation ( http://www.sonoroenergy.com/upload/media_element/54/01/sonoro_corp_pres_june_v5.pdf . You will notice that the place to drill the wells is actually located 2 KM to the west of the old well. Next, if you look at page 13 of the presentation, you will notice that the old abandoned well is located 2 KM of the west of the highway; hence the new wells will 4 KM to the west of the highway.
Since they are now contemplating drilling 2 KM to the west of the old abandoned well, they now have to construct the required infrastructure (roads leading from the highway to the location of the new wells) that they had not contemplated before. They will use the month of July to construct the infrastructure required for the new locations.
They could start drilling in August, but are holding off for two reasons:
1) Ramadan. Although you could get some people to work during the religious holiday, they won't be as effective as they would after.
2) Rainy season. They will need water to extract the oil out of the ground. The rainy season doesn't start until September, in which time they can accumulate enough water to last until next year's rainy season. What's the point of drilling in August, only having to wait until September to extract the oil?
The terrain of the wells is located approximately 250 meters above sea level. Again, referring to page 14, the oil reservoir is located between 200 to 300 meters below the surface (+40m to -60m from sea level). Normally, it should only take 1 day to drill to this depth. However, since they are not familiar with this area's geology, they are going to take their time, constantly change the drill bits. Hence, it will take between 10 to 12 days. According to the seismic, they believe that this reservoir contains approximately 100 million barrels at this depth. They can always drill deeper at a future date.
I know it seems like it is taking forever; however, we've waited this long, so what is another month if they going do it right the first time?
Theoretically, the share price should be around $0.25 right now. Probably down, because the rest of the juniors are down. Nevertheless, there should be a significant move up mid-August as we get closer to the drilling date.
You are correct MHT, Awarding of the drilling contracts should make a difference.
Why is Sonoro always moving so slow?
Why do you think the wells construction will take 2 - 3 months? It should take 2 - 3 weeks.
Thank you for your posts.
Share Price over the Summer
I have no idea where the share price is going to go over the summer. I'm expecting the following news releases over the next couple of months:
June: Awarding of the drilling contracts
July: Contruction of the oil wells begin
August is a write-off due to Ramadan. Spudding of the well will only take 11 days (they are only going down 200-300 meters). As such, I believe the stock price will rise significantly in August as we get closer to the date of the first well being spudded.
The share price should increase when the above news items are released. It will show that they are on track with Iraq becoming a reality.
P.S. The seismic data that they acquired from a third party is the equivalent of one year's work & worth $20 Million.
MHT, do you think we'll see another run to 0.40 this summer - fall in anticipation of the drilling starting in few weeks?
Yes, I am still here.
Richard Wadsworth bought 138,000 shares today at $0.20. It was mainly 3 big time investors selling over the past few days. They were not selling because of anything having to do with the Company.
The Albania project stalled because of the recent change in regulation. The present JV partner is looking to back out. They are actively looking for someone and very hopeful to having him replaced very soon, and finally bring this project to completion.
Iraq oil production project is moving full steam ahead. They should be in production by late September.
Although the debt financing for the topping facility was hinged upon getting a Government Oil Supply contract, that is no longer the case. With the recent discovery of seismic data which was gathered by other parties (under Sadam`s rule), they now know exactly where to drill -not requiring to do any of their own seismic- and have realised that they will have enough oil that they won`t need the Government`s oil. Nevertheless, this puts the plans for their topping facility on hold until they start producing. This most probably scared some investors as this is added risk. A Government contract is a sure thing... this is not.
Of the three sellers, it would appear that one is still there. Once he is done, the share price should recover to above 25 cents.
The shares from the second $0.25 Private Placement are becoming free-trading on the 20th. However, I don`t believe that these shares will place any pressure on the share price, since the people who bought these are the buy & hold type. Nevertheless, the shares from the first $0.25 Private Placement are still out there, and will keep the pressure on the price close to $0.25.
The share price will appreciate next month, when the contruction of the oil wells begin. Once they are in production, they will have defied the odds, and the share price will finally reflect the true value of the Company.
MHT??? Are you still out there? If so, what's your thoughts on the latest sp drop. One would have expected this given the situation, but my question is where do we go from here? How far does this drop? There is a good portion of investors who were sitting on a pretty large gain that are now underwater. I was sad to see the volume finally come in today....this has me worried. The combination of high volume on the downside and literally no bid support ....I really don't know how far this falls. If you don't answer, than mostly likely you have sold and moved on from this board...if thats the case, good for you (at least in the short term) if not, I'd like to hear your thoughts now that we approaching a 40 m mkt cap
Yeah unfortunately, we are at the mercy of the markets right now...I will say that the 30% decline has been on less than significant volume which tells me that a good portion of the decline is not people dumping shares but a small gradual decline, i.e. there has been no support. I am okay with this because it is what I expected, hard to jump in with big money right now when you know there are shares coming into play over the next few weeks. With lack of bid support, it is quite possible that we see some lower .20's to even high teens but so far there has been some vol coming in at .24. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see some more insiders picking up shares...the last time they bought at .25 so I gotta think that they might be prowling around down here.
Regarding news,I think at this point, I am going to take a pessimistic outlook and say that they won't be able to get any news out in the immediate future. This is only because I know these things take time and if I am wrong, then it's a good thing. Interesting that the presentation they are doing is being put on by First Energy, the same people who picked up a significant portion of the PP coming due over the next week or so. Coincidence??? Also, I noticed BNK will be there to, nice time to start hammering out a JV in Albania Richard. Anyways, my thesis is that yes we could see some teens here over the next week or so but anything below .20 I am sure will be met with some significant buying, afterall I think these prices down here represent a fine buying opportunity. JMO
Hi Killawhale:
About a 30% decline in one month, since our discussion. In the absence of tangible news, this thing can find itself in the teens this summer... Of course news of a deal that generates some cash flow and we'll be north of .50 in no time. Will we get that news before the summer doldrums?
Until now, lots of plans but nothing an investor can really sink their teeth into... I know, put some money you can lose into this and come back in three years... either it is gone or you have a ten bagger...
Simply
Good post lots of good inferences from the MD&A. In regards to BNK, don't they produce and sell oil in Albania already? So under the new law don't they already have to be a licensed refinery, even thought they are a Canadian company?
Iraq
Ok, I just want to point out to everyone that we are REQUIRED as a term in our Iraq agreement that we have ATLEAST a 1,000bpd topping facility by October 14 2012. If the supply agreement does not materialize which I am hoping it does... “With the planned drilling of first wells in the third quarter of 2011, and the successful discovery of commercial heavy oil, a supply agreement may not be required for the Company to proceed with a topping facility. The Company is also reviewing alternatives in relation to the financing, building and operation of topping facilities with third parties so that it may focus on the exploration, extraction and development of the prospective resources identified.
Why do I believe the supply agreement will go forward? Jobs, Jobs, Jobs, It fits with Iraq’s goal of increasing oil production and refining capabilities, and lastly, it fits with the required timeline. The latest we can expect a go/no go from the province would be august/September because then Sonoro would not be able to setup with the remaining time in the agreement. Furthermore, when we were given the green light - the Company has now received an investment permit from the provincial governorate of Salah ad Din allowing the Company to proceed with its asphalt (heavy oil) project. This permit allows Sonoro to immediately commence operations and allows for the importation of necessary equipment and personnel. If we have already been approached by full service drilling companies, who or what do we now have permission to
import?
What I am disappointed about is found buried at the very bottom of the document - the Company has identified three additional distinct prospects in different areas of the 20 province for which it plans to acquire additional data and potentially explore through the drilling of additional exploration wells in 2012. I was hoping these would be drilled Q4 at the latest.
Albania
The first thing that jumped out at me was the major reduction in our JV partner’s share of the venture. It was announced Feb 4 2010 as a 60/40 Sonoro/Private Venture. http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=28203992&qm_symbol=SNV:CA
It is now a 83.33/16.67 Sonoro/Private Joint venture due to the lack of participation by our JV partner. In my earlier post I considred that there may have been bad blood over money or equipment upgrading issues on the private company’s part and i take the following quote found in the MD&A as legitimizing that comment.
“it has not contributed additional sourced equipment from abroad in satisfaction of its $1 million equity investment commitment under the joint venture. The Company incurred capital costs for certain additional equipment of approximately $270,000 in 2010 and is working with the joint venture partner to advance finance activities of the joint venture.”
On the positive side we have established the results of the process: The de-asphalting process applied to test samples in Albania resulted in API oil gravity increases from approximately 10°API to 16°API, with reductions in viscosity, sulphur and heavy metals
However, as stated in the MD&A there have been some political changes in Albania which may be working against this JV in its current form. The requirement to become a registered refinery in order to buy and sell in local markets and the additional excise taxes on the diluents make the JV unattractive unless they can find a different diluents – which is being actively pursued. BUT I agree with several other posters when they suggest that this makes a fee for use refining model VERY attractive if it is with a local producer. The major speculation with this business model is can they partner with BNK? The only flaw, and it may a fatal one...is that BNK is a CANADIAN company. However, as Richard said in the article (http://albertaventure.com/2011/04/technology-takes-over-the-oil-and-gas-industry/) - He says that Albania has no pipeline network and no refineries of its own, which means Sonoro’s technology will be a major asset for heavy-oil producers in that country by increasing the quality of the oil before it goes to a refinery.
Other
Unfortunately we are not getting paid by the purchaser or our soil remediation technologies and are currently considering legal action for the 1.2 million we are owed. Furthermore, I now consider the SonoAsh project to be a dead issue for all intents and purposes even though it produced VERY impressive results. The company’s statement :
The Company is actively seeking a commercial demonstration project at a coal-fired power plant with a potential partner and is evaluating strategic alternatives for the further development of its SonoAsh technology and related intellectual property
Anybody get a chance to read the MD&A yet? My take from it was this.
I really liked how mgmt went into more detail regarding the issues/problems/solutions/timeline facing their various JV's . In my opinion, mgmt has noticed a lot of frustration on these fronts and did a great job of addressing them to us shareholders. Another point on the scoreboard for this mgmt team in my book.
Albania JV is a long time away friends....a lot of issues to work out there both polically and legally.....also I think the JV with the Albanian company is not exactly turning out to be a match made in heaven. I was extrememly interested by this comment made within the MD&A:
"The joint venture believes that it could still achieve success by entering into a processing arrangement with an Albanian oil producer whereby the joint venture simply processes the producer’s oil for a fee. Producers are not subject to the excise tax on imported solvent/diluents and would be able to sell the oil products internationally or to local refineries. "
BNK anyone????
IMO, it all comes down to debt financing. Iraq oil production is still the make or break for this company....without financing they cannot explore, test, produce,etc...anything. I think another share offering would be disasterous.
All and all, I think mgmt are doing an excellent job and they have my full suppport. Good luck and hopefully we get some good news soon.
Comments appreciated
Good find...interesting article
Possible Supply Discount for Topping Facility
Found this tidbit on an Iraq news website - perhaps this means we get a larger profit margin on refined product from the topping facility as a result of discounted supply prices.
here is a link:
http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2011/04/27/iraq-sweetens-deal-for-foreign-investors-in-refineries/
by hit the market I mean that they have become unrestricted
Around 20 million shares have hit the market so far, its held its ground. Hopefully the support continues as it dances around the 200 day. When the smoke clears, there could be some big time share holders of SNV and .28-.30 could be a nice bottom
Held up relatively well today...next few weeks will be a battle
NEWS OUT
Sonoro obtains licence for North Salah ad Din
2011-04-25 06:22 ET - News Release
Mr. Richard Wadsworth reports
SONORO RECEIVES PERMIT TO COMMENCE OPERATIONS
Sonoro Energy Ltd. has received, further to the previously announced management committee approval of the company's work program and budget for the first year of the licence period in Iraq, an investment permit from the provincial governorate of Salah ad Din allowing the company to proceed with its asphalt (heavy oil) project. This permit allows Sonoro to immediately commence operations and allows for the importation of necessary equipment and personnel. Finally, this permit sets April 14, 2011, as the commencement date of Sonoro's exclusive five-year exploration period as per the license agreement.
Sonoro's immediate objective is the appraisal of its North Salah ad Din resource prospect. This phase includes the acquisition of seismic data and the drilling of three wells to delineate the field size and to evaluate resource deliverability. The company has recently identified three additional exploration prospects upon which further seismic and well data are being acquired to facilitate further delineation of these prospects.
President and chief executive officer, Richard Wadsworth, commented: "With this permit our team now has the necessary approvals to commence operations and drilling of at least three wells in Salah ad Din targeted for third quarter 2011. Our next steps are to finalize our security and drilling program and to tender out for a rig and related services. The fact that we have identified four distinct prospects in different areas of the province in a short period of time provides confidence in the large resource potential within the province."
We seek Safe Harbor.
This is just my opinion but I really believe unrestricted shares will be sold, ands I was hoping they could be sold into strength with a news release as opposed to the weakness we have witnessed recently. However, I was encouraged by big blocks being picked up by UBS, RBC, and First Energy Capital (involved in lastest financing - I believe that's the name, again I'm on my BB so I have to go from memory, no multi browser screen :( ) I suppose that someone had to sell in big blocks tho. Speaking to that article...it is the only reason I haven't completely written off the tech yet, I was encouraged by the comment on scalability and the comments albania and lack refining capabilities which led me to believe on the viability of the albania project. I'm honestly hoping they put it the backburner because their JV partner didn't want to pay for the required improvements to the power distrabution or generation upgrades and sonoro didn't want to burn the precious cash that was alotted for Iraq which will long term have the better payout. The differences in the two presentations are few, they eluded to another JV or provincial agreement (I would be concerned about being spread too thin in this instance) the comment on the well which apparently is overpressured which I assume is better than under pressured. And a general road map for the next 6 months...supply agreement, drilling contracting, actual drilling and some seismic mapping. Unfortunately, it looks like we will have to wait for quarterlies where we got our last update on the fly ash project, albania and I'm hoping this time something from shell. I'm hoping they release it thursday (MD&A) and supply contract easter monday. (Or maybe albania will rise easter monday lol) Thanks for the discussion guys! Happy weekend and go canucks!!
You too (on the good weekend part), glad to be at least giving this board some action...been dead and I always enjoy discussions where each person makes good points and attacks the arguments and not individuals. I think we both helped each other validate both the risks involved here and also the potential as well--An extremely important exercise that investors must constantly re-evaluate.
Good post killawhale. I may have been misunderstood in my first post, for I did not mean that Sonoro's technology has failed in Albania, but that the venture has... for electricity reasons or whatever the difficulties may be...
In general, we are in agreement and have put our money in SNV because we have seen the same qualities in this company... Nice discussion, hope you enjoy your weekend.
Simply
I hear you on the frustration part.
Regarding Albania, I think you agreed with my point right here:
"Mind you, I don't think this means their technology has failed, because there could have been a number of problems. "
that was all I was saying. it is speculation at this point to believe one way or another. I was just pointing out that in your first post you said that the technology has failed, and I was just pointing out that it has not failed yet or been proven. They have dropped it from all the press releases as of late simply because there is nothing to report. That is different than dropping it because it doesn't work. The recent stockhouse article with the cheif engineer commenting on Albania is proof that they are still working on this venture....whether it works or not is still an unknown.
Regarding the financing, maybe I mispoke a little by indicating it was certain. It is not. However, I think that there is a much greater chance of that happening than not. They have the UAE diplomat to help with this. Also, the latest update clearly indicated that they have been working with the province of Shal a din (not sure I got that spelled correctly but you know what I mean).
You make a great point on the new shares hitting the market. However, and maybe this is just me, if there is little impact on the sp after they hit, at least it tells me there is somebody out there with a truck load of shares and and not willing to sell them at current market prices. That is not much because we never know when they will but it is something.
Regarding the management. If you look at the last year they have shown us quite a bit. Recently, I agree they have been struggling a bit to get things rolling, but I know ventures like this take time and that they are working as fast as they can. Just look at all the insider purchases over the last six months. They have a lot at stake, so I can be almost positive that they are working as hard and fast as they can.
I remain mildly frustrated as well...I have missed a lot of other money runners sitting my cash in SNV, but I think it will payout. I don't blame you at all for your feelings. In the end, it is a lot of promises.
All right killawhale, I'm obviously frustrated for sitting on dead money for months and months... You wrote:
"First, we don't know that Albania is a failure. Period. We know it is taking longer than expected and has run in to some difficulites getting up and running. That's it. Anything else is just speculation and rumors."
I disagree, the company has effectively dropped Albania from their news releases. Would you please click on that Investor Presentation link given in the previous post, any mention of Albania? Wasn't the project supposed to have been operational 8 months ago? Not even one update of what is going on? Don't you think it is speculation on your part to think they have just ran into some difficulties and we will hear shortly from them? Mind you, I don't think this means their technology has failed, because there could have been a number of problems.
"Secondly, you ask if the debt financing is coming? I think it is very apparent that management is working hard to secure this. They know the stakes here. You pose that question like it is a 50/50 chance of happening...I don't think that its like that at all. IMO, its a question of when?"
Why, have you read something we haven't besides the company saying we are after this? What makes you certain they will get it?
"we do not know if the impact of the unresistricted shares is even going to have an effect on sp. "
Agreed, but we know something, the effect will certainly not be a positive one...
"you miss the part where we have a proven and experienced management team"
I thought it was understood, I would not be writing on this thread if it wasn't for their experienced management and recent members of the board... but show me something already!
"there is a difference between a higher risk/reward investment and a roulette table."
To each their own, for me at least on the roulette table it is you who are in control of your money... here you have no idea what is going on... a lot of promises and great plans that don't seem to come through...For me this high risk/reward investment is nothing short of a gamble.
Having said all this, as I mentioned, I'm just frustrated by the lack of news... everything can still workout for this company and all our expectations can be fulfilled in YEARS to come... :)
2nd Corporate Presentation
I have no background with oil and gas, and I wonder if any of you have thoughts regarding the 2nd corporate presentation that Sonoro has released. THe first presentation is no longer posted ....
Here is a link to the second presentation:
http://www.sonoroenergy.com/upload/media_element/31/02/sonoro_corp_pres_mar21_v5.pdf
For the most part it seems to me that there is little new information, with the exception of an update on expected drilling/seismic exploration (late this year). However, there is an interesting slide (#15) regarding an old well drilled in 1935.
To me this suggests that there is at least some kind of hope for finding some kind of oil, heavy or otherwise.
GIven my lack of oil and gas knowledge, I have no idea if this kind of oil can be extracted with ease or if it requires an Alberta approach (i.e. SAGD). The latter would suggest the need for a lot of capital ...
Thoughts ... ?
Simply,
I think you make a lot of great points and outline the risks involved with this company...which are definitely significant. HOWEVER,
I think your wrong in several places (JMO)
First, we don't know that Albania is a failure. Period. We know it is taking longer than expected and has run in to some difficulites getting up and running. That's it. Anything else is just speculation and rumors.
Secondly, you ask if the debt financing is coming? I think it is very apparent that management is working hard to secure this. They know the stakes here. You pose that question like it is a 50/50 chance of happening...I don't think that its like that at all. IMO, its a question of when? Ideally it would be nice to have something cusion the impact of the additional shares, but having said that, we do not know if the impact of the unresistricted shares is even going to have an effect on sp. Whoever snatched up the pp could be a long term holder just like the rest of us....we just don't know.
You list several times that we are just a company that has nothing but an unproven technology and a contract in Iraq, but you miss the part where we have a proven and experienced management team, several other JV's that have been moved to the backburner, as well as some exteremely significant contacts within the middle east. I don't think that can be understated...especially when looking at the geopolitcal risks that you outlined. Though not midigated, I think those facts provide a little more security for me.
Bottom line, there is a difference between a higher risk/reward investment and a roulette table. Granted we need some things to go our way- and some of that involves a little luck - but I think that is far different than throwing money on red or black.
Thank you everyone for bringing this board back to life... For me we have reality vs dream here. Reality is, the company has an unproven technology and the one chance they had to prove it in a small commercial scale, has failed. Management doesn't even mention Albania anymore, so face it the venture was a failure, period. Fact, 20 million shares are hitting the market shortly and we are getting close to the month of May, where most intelligent traders sell and come back in August/September after the market has had its usual summer slump. In the absence of news, who knows where the share price could go.
Now, for our hopes and dreams... Yes, a supply agreement will rocket this thing, and debt financing will show confidence of bankers/investors, putting their money into this venture... but is it coming? Someone mentioned releasing news before the shares hit the market to soften the blow. Well, if they have no news to release, what are they going to do, reaffirm their intents again? And about that article, we all know with very little money from the PR dept, one can have such things written, but what does it say really? An unproven technology that could have tremendous potential, heard that before?
I realize this is an extremely risky venture with blue sky and all that, but has anyone considered what would happen if the only thing we have going for us, the contract in Iraq, hits problems? Say another part of the government, or some newly appointed officials, start disagreeing about this sweet deal and decide to renege the whole thing...Think these kind of things don't happen? Of all places in Iraq?
Guess if you have extra cash you don't need and want to risk it for potentially a big payday, very much like the lottery, you can throw it at this thing... but one has to realize that right now this company could not be considered an investment, we are at the roulette table, so place your bets...
Best,
Simply
It is always hard with these kinds of ventures (blue sky potential) to remain patient...it is a long process, especially when working in places like Albania where the infrastructure isn't as solid and there are a lot of hoops to jump through politically. Having said that, I think it has been too long since us shareholders have heard anything concrete regarding the sonic reactor technology.
I think the company has been making solid process and keeping us up to date as much as they can (I think they realize the impatience growing..hence the mild updates recently). I think my two biggest hopes from right now (can't be too greedy) is that
1. They announced a supply contract before the new shares hit the market. This will mitigate a lot of cash flow fears which I think are substantial, plus bring in some colleteral to secure a debt financing deal.
2. Secure a debt financing deal that will help them take the company to the next level without dilluting anymore. I miss the "old" days when there was only 60 million shares o/s and I don't think I would hang around much longer if the o/s shares rose over 250 million.
As far as the reactor goes, it has been pushed to the background which is okay...allows for a somewhat unexpected (in that many people have written this news off for the immediate future) news release that could be huge. As far as hitting big oil goes....that will take time.
My biggest concern is the new shares hitting the market over the next few weeks. If it weren't for that I would be buying up right here...but I think I want to wait and see if those shares get dumped on the market or the effect is minimal...It is possible that many other prospective buyers are displaying the same caution.
As always I have nothing but high hopes for this company and I think they have demonstrated the ability to follow through...even when late. I still have the utmost faith in their ability to pull this off and still remain a happy shareholder despite the flat 6 month trading range it has fallen in.
As always, I think every reader of this board appreciates MHT's insights as well...this is just my 2 cents
I can't take credit for the find buy I thought I'd copy paste in good faith lol
Great read, mentions our technology which is being ramped up for albania, canada & Iraq :
A single sonicator is the size of a van and “kind of looks like an hour glass on its side,” Arato says. The machine has a large steel bar through the middle and no moving parts when activated. “We put an electromagnetic force around the bar so that it vibrates,” Arato explains. “What we’re doing allows us to shake the hell out of anything that we want very, very quickly.”
“Think about Texas or Saudi Arabia. Both of those places are sitting on balloons; you stick a straw in the ground, suck [oil] out and it’s perfect. The stuff in Alberta isn’t,” says Claudio Arato, Sonoro’s director of engineering and technology. The company operates in Alberta, Albania and Iraq, where oil is heavier and has higher metal and sulphur content than Texas or Saudi Arabia.
That’s where Sonoro claims an advantage. The company has developed a sonicator that removes the contaminating asphaltenes from heavy oil using sonic energy. The process lowers the density of heavy oil and thereby increases the quality of the product by as much as 10 per cent. A single sonicator is the size of a van and “kind of looks like an hour glass on its side,” Arato says. The machine has a large steel bar through the middle and no moving parts when activated. “We put an electromagnetic force around the bar so that it vibrates,” Arato explains. “What we’re doing allows us to shake the hell out of anything that we want very, very quickly.”
The sonicators let oil producers scale their production easily. “We can start at 5,000 barrels per day, go to 10,000, to 25,000 – or you can go from one to 10 directly,” Arato says. The machines are modular and can be stacked on top of one another or side by side.
“If you’re selling that de-asphalted oil into a refinery, depending on what kind of refinery, you can also see an improvement in the price you get,” says Sonoro president and CEO Richard Wadsworth. Before joining Sonoro, Wadsworth was head of Calgary-based Bankers Petroleum, where he extracted heavy oil in Albania. He says that Albania has no pipeline network and no refineries of its own, which means Sonoro’s technology will be a major asset for heavy-oil producers in that country by increasing the quality of the oil before it goes to a refinery.
Sonoro has also won exclusive rights for exploration, development and production of asphalt in a 24,000-square-kilometre area in the Salah ad Din Governate in Iraq, which Wadsworth describes as “one of the largest potential growth markets in the world.”
I also completely agree with you guys. I emailed the company at the beginning of te week and have yet to receive a response. Usually they atleast tell me to call them to talk, nobody ever wants to put things on paper lol. I am concerned about the major deterioration in the SP this week, there have been several large iceberg orders that keep this in the 30-31 cent range and it was an absolute heart breaker that we blew out the 30 cent support today with 6000 shares being traded at 3:59. There are a few bright spots however, on stockhouse there was an article that was written the first of april re: the sonic process and they said it was scaleable and commercially viable - spoken by their director of engineering. I would copy bpaste a quote but I'm on my phone and can't have two windows open. Google alberta and sonoro it will come up, or check out stockhouse. Secondly, I'm assuming it will be Easter monday that 20 million shares become free trading b/c good friday (the 22) markets are closed - from the dec financing. My point being I would release news close to the release date to blunt the anticipated selling pressure. Furthermore, Q1 and year end SHOULD be released by the end of the month. HOWEVER, the lack of news is shitty, and I'm not sure the old adage no news is good news applies here. I'm hoping that we get a supply contract agreement next week and the contracting of the drilling co the following week of vice versa. I am also hoping we get a surprise agreement with another province or company as covered in our agreement with Berkley. And most importantly, I'm hoping we hit both heavy and. "Convential" oil in which we will receive "preferential" treatment and make a big splash! Lastly, I'm hoping on a dream we get a surprise announcement of a partnership with Banker's courtesy of Richard for upgrading...the article on the first gives me my hope. Before I leave, I ask all of you, please, respond lol. I like hearing other's thoughts on this stock and these boards are so dead lol. I miss MHT lol. Take care guys!
Jw
I agree. The lack of news, or any measureable progress, on Albania, SonoAsh as well as the Alberta/Shell venture is concerning.
Prior to the conversion to Sonoro, I was concerned with where the company was going with the technology. It really seemed to me that they an unproven technology company, at least in a commercial sense, with a significant money problem.
Now that the company is primarly focussed on the oil and gas adventure, I hope that the company will become more like and oil and gas company with a technology problem. By this I mean that they should be able to generate cash flow with the oil and gas ventures, which could be used to fritter away on the technology problem(s), if they were still inclined to do so.
If the technology can be proven on a commercial scale, then good things should happen. I've been riding this technology company for 10 years - seems like forever - and the only brief excitement I've seen is the short lived run up to $3.
Here's to hoping that the oil + gas assets in Iraq, combined with the management team, can turn this into something. Feels like this will be a long ride though ... probably more than 1 - 2 years.
cheers !
Am I the only one, or the complete lack of news, for months, has others concerned as well. All we have gotten is "what we are going to do..." Albania forgotten, Alberta/Shell who knows??
If it wasn't for the insiders buying so much I could easily see this below 5 cents... We don't even really know if the technology works in commercial scale... Just blowing off steam... this board looks dead anyway... and I don't blame people for not posting...
Frustrated,
Simply
MHT,
I've been a reader of this board for quite some time, mostly because of the valuable contributions that you've provided. Thank you from the many silent participants like myself who have gained incredible insight as a result of your posts.
As there hasn't been a post in a month on this board, I wanted to ask what your current thoughts are regarding Sonoro, as well as any milestones and timelines that you are expecting. The share price has drifted back down to where it was before the very positive prospective resource estimate but seems to be stable in the high 20's.
Thanks again for bringing clarity to many things SNV.
My Dissemination of the Corporate Update
First things first, this was not a news release; rather it was a corporate update. We have yet to hear any of the pending news. Most of the present information was already released last November 29th within their MD&A.
Supply Contract
I was expecting to hear some news regarding the Supply Contract between February 15th-23rd. Probably a lot of investors were anticipating the same timeline; hence, the Company had to release an update indicating that they are still working on it. Hopefully they'll get it by next week. The share price should consolidate above $0.40 with the announcement of a Supply Contract.
Debt Financing
Since news regarding the Supply Contract is past due my initial timeline, I will have to revise my timeline for the debt financing: I am now looking towards mid-March. The one concern I have is with the following statement just released:
"The Company anticipates debt financing of all or a significant portion of the processing facility's total cost."
I was anticipating debt financing in the range between $50 and $100 Million. This statement means that they may not even get $30M, and will have to place some of the funds they had just acquired from their latest Private Placements towards the refinery.
Prospective Resource Estimate
I was expecting a NI 51-101 Resource Estimate in April, after they had completed their drilling. I understand that this independent resource assessment was prepared in accordance with the definitions of a NI 51-101, but is this report an actual NI 51-101? Why the need to drill, if there is no need to prove up the resource estimate? As such, I'm guessing that we will see an actual NI 51-101 by sometime in April.
Parameters of Heavy Oil
Please note the following statement:
"The prospective heavy oil resources ((less than)25 degrees API) are expected to be between..."
I had heard that Iraq doesn't set the same parameters on the definition of "heavy oil" as the rest of the world. Is 25 degrees API really considered "heavy"? The rest of the world defines "Heavy" as any oil below 22.3 degrees ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API_gravity ):
• Light crude oil is defined as having an API gravity higher than 31.1 °API.
• Medium oil is defined as having an API gravity between 22.3 °API and 31.1 °API
• Heavy oil is defined as having an API gravity below 22.3 °API.
• Extra heavy oil is defined with API gravity below 10.0 °API.
Anything above 20 degrees is pipeline-able. If they have exclusive rights for oil up to 25 degrees API, then we are really in business.
Conclusion
Although some people may have taken this Corporate Update as a news release, I am still waiting on the news releases; which should be imminent.
P.S. I have no idea as to the requirements for electrical power, utilities and all other supporting facilities of the project. As for security, I am told that they are in the "green zone", and there are no hostilities in this area.
MHT,
would love to hear your comments regarding the latest press release when you have a chance
MHT,
I have been reading this board for a long time, your response earlier this evening has compelled me to join this forum in order to respond. I have reviewed the links that you included in your analysis on our mutual interest Sonoro. You raise several valid points and I would like nothing more than to see your predictions come to pass. One of the few things I am concerned about is article 13 in the private investment legislation:
"The investing company is committed to provide by its own means the entire requirements for electrical power, utilities and all other supporting facilities of the project"
Unfortunately for me in this instance, I am only a finance grad and nothing close to an engineer, I would never speculate on your profession but given the technical responses you provide I was hoping you could speculate on the power requirements required to run the diesel/kerosene topping facility? I have tried simplistic searches on the internet but nothing I have found has given me any idea of the requirements, or the costs associated with providing said power.
You noted who is the current Minister of Energy, the only connection I could make is that he had fled to Canada after escaping imprisonment. To me this would only suggest he may be receptive to a Canadian company.
Lastly, can you shed any light on how much debt financing Richard may be able to arrange given the current situation of Sonoro, I'm assuming it would depend more on the values of the contracts that have yet to be secured so I don't expect anything more than pure speculation, but sometimes even the exercise of speculation can be of benefit to the greater understanding! Thanks in advance!
Thank you for taking the time to write such valuable posts.
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