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I think today close 10,25
Glad I held on to my shares. Just sold half just now
here we go!!!!!!!!!!!!
Made an easy 28% for paid members..JOIN us
http://www.marketnewscall.com/capnia-incnasdaqcapn-paid-members-made-28-in-one-week/1245688/
$10-$20 target on CAPN article:
A Recent Healthcare IPO That Could Lead To Big Gains For Investors On Improved Care For Newborns
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2941776-a-recent-healthcare-ipo-that-could-lead-to-big-gains-for-investors-on-improved-care-for-newborns
I cashed out already at 7
Looking great
Textbook trading pattern
Filled a gap/sucked in a bunch of new retail shorts. Now it's on its way back up. Wouldn't that be just a kick in the nuts to the shorts if it went back to $8 EOD.
It's holding up very well
Yeah just like gene
CAPN $$$$ Massive dumping this am.
Price target is 10 to 20
Nice I was hoping for $20. If they get some big deal this could sky rocket. Only 6 million shares outstanding. I'm hoping for a good ride here
I'm in until hits 15
I picked up 500. Hoping we can go to $10 or higher. What is everyone thought
Small batch 2500k
How many shares?
It will go to 20 as long as there is no public or private offering which I feel is on the way
I rarely play stocks like this for more than a day or two hold. I'm skeptical on stocks like this in that I don't see them going to 10 or $20. But I have been wrong several times before. It may very well go back up when interest from people like me is gone. I hope for longs that it does. I'm just not one to hold this for a long time
That's fair. Being a skeptic and being a short are two different things. A skeptic doesn't invest. A short either tries do day trade or shorts an overvalued stock. This is not overvalued by any means and with a small float and sales coming in can easily kill shorts on its way to $10 or maybe even $20. If you're a skeptic sitting on the sidelines the worst that can happen is you miss out. But shorting here is a bad idea. Look what GENE did, it doubled when everyone was saying to short at $5's.
Shoot, I've been long, short, and everything in between on this. I love biopharma that get news
You better get in before is to late.
That's a good point. I'm just a skeptic ??
It has gone up a lot, but that's just to below it's IPO price at $6.50. One could argue that it was just severely oversold and not reflecting its true value at $2. You're no longer getting a bargain but I don't think you're overpaying. You're paying less than initial investors, insiders and convertible debt holders did.
With a play like this, it has gone up several hundred percent in just a few days. If someone thinks it won't pull back at some point their nuts. When the volume dries up in a few days I'm telling Ya, imo of course. Best of luck, I hope everyone makes lots of money.
CAPN versus CAPNW
CAPNW are warrants on CAPN expiring in 2019 at a strike price of $6.50. Warrants are like call options except with much longer terms to expiry. You can benefit from leverage. If you believe CAPN will hit $10 soon, then the warrants make a lot of sense to buy because you can purchase them for around $1.20 last I checked versus $6 on the stock. If the stock goes from $6 to $10 you make 67%. But the warrants are worth at least $3.50 (10-6.50 strike, plus some marginal time value) so you basically triple your money.
If 5 years from now CAPN is $6 you break even on the stock but get wiped out on the warrants. So it all depends on your investment time horizon and bullishness on the stock.
I think the warrants are a pretty good deal. If you look at ARWR, another volatile health care stock around the same price, $10 call options expiring in 2017 last had a price of $3 when the stock trades at $7.25. So comparing to that CAPNW is way cheap because it's closer to being in the money and has twice the time to expiry.
I have added pertinent information from the IPO document to the intro.
Awesome to be in on this at the ground level. So far CAPN has been very good to me. Here's to a successful company! Here Here!
Then do your own DD. The article is mostly taking pieces from the S-1 filing. You can easily do that yourself. But it does some valuable digging for anyone too lazy to do it themselves.Here are the parts I found most important:
Adverse Effects of Jaundice and Hyperbilirubinemia
Every year approximately 143 million babies are born world-wide, of which 4.0 million are in the U.S. and 5.2 million in the E.U. It is estimated that up to 60% of term neonates and 80% of preterm neonates may have jaundice. Most neonates have non-pathologic jaundice, which is related to a decreased capacity of the neonate to excrete bilirubin into the intestinal tract for elimination from the body. These neonates will often normalize their bilirubin levels without a need for treatment. When treatment is required, it is typically via phototherapy, which typically involves isolating the baby in a chamber that directs blue-wavelength light to the baby’s skin. The light penetrates the skin and breaks down bilirubin via a photochemical reaction over a period of several hours. When treatment is performed in a timely fashion, adverse outcomes can be avoided. Some neonates with jaundice, however, will develop adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes related to hyperbilirubinemia.
According to the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, neonatal jaundice is the single largest cause for hospital readmission of neonates in the U.S. This results in inefficient care and can also be highly stressful and disruptive for the parents and neonate.
Exposure to excess bilirubin in the CNS as a result of hyperbilirubinemia is toxic and may cause long-term developmental disabilities. These abnormalities may be subtle, and include hearing problems and low IQ. Subtle forms of disability are known as Bilirubin-Induced Neurological Dysfunction, or BIND. More severe bilirubin-induced disabilities, including respiratory failure and resulting death, can be referred to as Acute Bilirubin Encephalopathy, or ABE. Bilirubin toxicity can ultimately result in a chronic, severe, and disabling condition called kernicterus. Kernicterus is a cerebral palsy-like condition in which the patient lacks muscle tone and motor control, cannot operate self-sufficiently, and can require long-term care. The National Quality Forum has in the past described kernicterus as a “never event,” one which physicians should ensure never occurs in their practice.
Limitations of Current Diagnostic Methods
It has been reported in peer-reviewed publications that the presence of hemolysis in a neonate with jaundice is a predictor of adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes. If neonates with high rates of hemolysis could be identified before they are discharged from the hospital, treatment could begin earlier, exposure to excessive bilirubin would be minimized and readmissions for jaundice would be reduced. Currently, accurate tools for diagnosing hemolysis in neonates are not available in the market. Tests that are commonly done to assess hemolysis such as serial hematocrit levels, reticulocyte counts and peripheral smear, are all invasive blood tests and are less useful in neonates due to physiologic changes resulting from childbirth. Hematocrit levels and reticulocyte counts may be elevated in neonates unrelated to pathological conditions, and confound the diagnosis of hemolysis, which typically involves low hematocrit and high reticulocyte counts. The Coombs test, a blood test that detects antibodies that can cause hemolysis, is used extensively as a measure of hemolysis; however, it often requires a painful heel stick to draw a blood sample, and other conditions besides hemolysis may trigger a false positive or false negative Coombs test. In spite of these limitations, we believe that the Coombs test remains the most frequently used diagnostic for hemolysis by physicians.
Today, the AAP recommends that all neonates be routinely tested for bilirubin levels at some point prior to being discharged from the hospital, although other organizations such as the United States Preventive Services Task Force or USPSTF, have not made similar recommendations. In many hospitals this is done via a blood test, although transcutaneous bilirubin meters are now available to test bilirubin levels non-invasively through the skin. Inaccurate results with use of these devices have been reported based on serum bilirubin level, measurement site, race, and ethnicity. In addition, bilirubin levels reflect only a point in time rather than the rate of increase, and therefore, may not address the risk of subsequent adverse outcomes. These tests do not capture the rate of bilirubin production or the presence/absence of hemolysis, leaving the physician uncertain as to the patient’s level of risk. Since many babies have bilirubin levels in a zone described as “intermediate risk” by current treatment guidelines, it is difficult for physicians to decide whether to treat aggressively or more conservatively.
Phototherapy is widely used to treat jaundice, and applied to approximately 8% of all births in the U.S. However, phototherapy treatment disrupts the opportunity for parent-newborn bonding, and is often highly stressful for infants and new parents. In some cases, particularly among low-risk newborns who are jaundiced, but not hemolyzing, phototherapy may not be necessary. In other cases, observation of jaundice and early testing for hemolysis may accelerate diagnosis and treatment with phototherapy. In all cases, understanding the rate of hemolysis is a critical part of providing timely and effective care. There is a significant need for a test to aid in the diagnosis of hemolysis that is rapid, accurate, and easy to use across all acuity levels within neonatal care.
Also, neonates are typically discharged from the hospital at approximately 48 hours of normal birth in the U.S. Hospitals are under pressure to discharge even earlier, in order to reduce costs and manage inpatient capacity. Bilirubin levels, however, typically peak more than 72 hours post birth, as shown in Figure 1 below. We believe that neonates with hemolysis can experience bilirubin levels in the intermediate risk range at time of discharge, but can spike rapidly to neurotoxic levels in the post-discharge period, out of the range expected based on the “Bhutani nomogram.”
Market Opportunity
Independent market research that we conducted has identified a large market opportunity for the CoSense device in the well-baby nursery and labor and delivery units in term neonates (less than 37 weeks), as well as in the neonatal intensive care unit, or NICU, in preterm births (less than 34 weeks) and late preterm births (between 34 and 37 weeks).
In the U.S. and E.U., there are approximately 8.1 million term births and 1.1 million preterm and late preterm births each year. Approximately 60% of term births, or approximately 4.9 million births, and 80% of preterm and late preterm births, or approximately 900,000 births, are jaundiced and are at greatest risk for adverse outcomes. We believe that these neonates are at risk for hemolysis and are candidates to receive one or more CoSense tests during their hospital stay if our product was available for commercial sale.
Today, the presence of jaundice triggers either a transcutaneous or serum bilirubin test. With the availability of CoSense, physicians may complement bilirubin testing with hemolysis testing in order to perform a more complete clinical assessment. Neonates who are jaundiced but not hemolyzing may receive conservative management or phototherapy. Neonates with jaundice found to be hemolyzing will likely receive early phototherapy and also additional testing such as the Coombs test, Hct or Retic to diagnose the underlying cause of hemolysis. We believe that CoSense will allow physicians to reduce the number of neonates that receive these more invasive and more costly tests for hemolysis.
Sales and Marketing
We intend to market CoSense for evaluating neonates for the presence, or the rate, of hemolysis. In the U.S., we will sell via a direct sales force, with potential augmentation of our reach via distributors. In the E.U., we expect to partner with distributors in each country, with oversight and marketing assistance from our personnel that we intend to base in the E.U.
Our U.S. direct sales efforts will initially focus on large hospital systems with high volumes of births. Approximately 100 centers in the U.S. are responsible for over 5,000 births per center per annum, and collectively make up approximately 16% of all births in the U.S., according to public information from Billian’s HealthDATA. A second tier of approximately 300 hospitals, those with approximately 2,500 or more births per year, accounts for an additional one million births, approximately 25% of the U.S. total. With a field sales force of 12-16 representatives, deployed primarily in large metropolitan areas, including the New York Tri-State area, Los Angeles, Chicago and Atlanta, we believe we will have the sales force capacity to develop appropriate relationships with various stakeholders at these centers.
We expect the majority of our revenues to be sales of consumables. Because customers will order these repeatedly once they have adopted CoSense as part of their standard procedures, we expect that our sales force can drive higher revenue per salesperson than might otherwise be the case.
Dr. Robert Christensen, the Director of Neonatal Research at Intermountain Healthcare, and Director of the Intermountain Healthcare Clinical Neonatology Program for the Northern region, has signed a letter of intent, or LOI, with us, on behalf of Intermountain Healthcare System, or IHS to purchase CoSense devices. IHS has used CoSense as part of various ongoing and completed clinical trials. In conjunction with Dr. Christensen, we have conducted a usage analysis to forecast the potential volume of CoSense use within the IHS.
IHS consists of 21 hospitals, of which 18 have labor and delivery services. IHS has approximately 30,000 total births annually, of which approximately 20,000 are in the largest eight hospitals. Per IHS’ letter of intent with us, pending appropriate approvals within the hospital system, IHS intends to purchase 16 CoSense devices, with two to be deployed in each of these eight largest hospitals initially. We believe roll-out of CoSense to the smaller hospitals within IHS could then happen over time.
The IHS has indicated they will use CoSense to inform treatment decisions for infants whose serum bilirubin levels are at or above the 75th percentile, which includes 25% of the births at these centers. The premise of this case study provides that half of those tested with CoSense will require a second CoSense test (average of 1.5 tests per infant). We therefore estimate that approximately 7,500 tests would be performed annually at the initial-adopter hospitals within this system, with usage rising to approximately 11,250 tests annually if CoSense devices are deployed across the entire IHS system.
In addition, Dr. David Stevenson, the Director of Pregnancy and Newborn Services for the Lucille Packard Children’s Hospital at Stanford University, or LPCH-Stanford, has signed an LOI with us on behalf of LPCH-Stanford. This LOI indicates intent, subject to institutional approvals, to purchase six CoSense devices for placement at the Lucille Packard Children’s Hospital and four other joint venture neonatology centers operated by LPCH-Stanford. LPCH-Stanford faculty have used the CoSense device in the context of clinical trials.
LPCH-Stanford and its joint venture centers together host approximately 11,500 births per year. Dr. Stevenson has indicated that they intend for all babies with a bilirubin level in the 40th percentile or higher to be tested with CoSense, equating to 60% of the babies delivered in the LPCH-Stanford system and approximately 6,900 newborns/year. Again assuming an average of 1.5 tests per infant, potential usage of CoSense in this system is over 10,000 CoSense tests — i.e. consumables — per year.
In addition to the aforementioned, key elements of our sales and marketing strategy include:
• Subsequent efforts will focus on growing the volume of tests performed and associated consumables used. We plan to focus specifically on sales to the NICU, well-baby nursery, and labor/delivery units within each hospital. Because CoSense is a point-of-care device, each of these units of the hospital is a separate opportunity for CoSense placement.
• Establish and engage a network of distributors in the E.U. We may establish continuing operations at a location in the E.U. to ensure close coordination and effective execution of the CoSense sales and marketing plan in the E.U.
•
Price the CoSense device at a list price of $4,995, a level that allows hospitals to purchase it without protracted review via a “capital purchase committee” or analogous body. We believe that the cost of goods of CoSense devices allows us flexibility in setting this price, and we also believe we can offer customer hospitals attractive financing options to smooth out costs associated with the device purchase.
• Price the CoSense consumable cannula at a list price of $50-100, a price that is competitive with the current costs of performing the Coombs Test and other associated invasive assays. We believe that this cost offset, complemented by potential improvements in readmission rates and clinical outcomes, will provide hospital decision-makers with a compelling economic case for adoption of CoSense.
• Build awareness of the AAP treatment guidelines, and of the benefits of CoSense, via medical education efforts to key clinical audiences, including neonatologists, pediatricians, obstetricians, and pediatric nurses.
• Collaborate with key specialty societies, including the Pediatric Academic Societies, American Academy of Family Physicians, or AAFP, and patient advocacy groups such as Parents of Infants and Children with Kernicterus, to ensure ongoing support for ETCO testing in clinical guidelines and to identify opportunities for expanding awareness of ETCO among their respective constituencies.
• Support clinical trials and publications that expand the base of evidence supporting broad adoption and use of CoSense. We expect these efforts will build support for the clinical benefits to patients as well as economic benefits to various stakeholders in the healthcare system.
We expect that we will expand our direct sales efforts to encompass lower-volume birthing centers in the U.S., once a sufficient proportion of the larger hospitals have begun to use CoSense. We may also selectively initiate direct sales to certain countries in the E.U. Furthermore, we see potential to use CoSense to make more rapid assessments of jaundiced babies in the outpatient pediatric setting, where new parents are frequently directed for followup care after hospital discharge. We will continue to evaluate expansion opportunities and pursue those where the potential to accelerate our business is deemed sufficient for the investment we put at risk.
Could be. I'm always very skeptical of anything seeking alpha puts out.
Investors are betting big on Capnia:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2930816-investors-are-betting-on-big-gains-for-capnia
Pretty good shot at $50+ million in revenue a year.
I guess we will see. Pre market is shaky, but that doesn't really mean anything
No pullback my friend. If it didn't happen yesterday it won't want today.
It's due for a big pullback
Active stock with a lot of potential. Only 2.3 million shares free trading. Lock up period for the IPO is in May.
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