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FINRA members must report their short interest positions in all OTC Equity Securities mid-month and end-of-month. Short interest reporting brings more transparency to the short selling activities by member firms, and reduces the possibility of manipulative behavior associated with naked short selling.
Is Warren Buffett Really A Value Investor?
Hes one of the most famous investors of all time and has certainly earned his nickname of The Oracle of Omaha. Warren Buffett has long been hailed as a value investor. But is that statement still accurate?
TUTORIAL: P/E Ratio
What Is Value Investing?
Value investing can mean a number of different things, but is generally meant to refer to a class of investors who look for investments trading at a price below where certain valuation fundamentals suggest they should be trading at. For example, a stock can trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) or price-to-book (P/B) value below its peers or the market average in general. Overall, value investing is an investment philosophy of finding undervalued securities that should eventually increase in value to be closer in line with (or above) the metrics of rivals or stock market averages.
On the flip side, growth investors are said to be more interested in the growth potential of a security whose underlying company has above-average sales or profit expansion prospects. Given this higher growth potential, a growth investor may be willing to pay above-average P/E, P/B or other valuation metrics compared to rivals or the market in general.
The value investing crowd has its origins in the 1934 text Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd and has been further developed by Warren Buffett, a past student of Graham who has also preached that a security eventually trades up to its intrinsic value. Buffett championed Grahams approach to buy a security with a satisfactory margin of safety, or, in Grahams words, a favorable difference between price on the one hand and indicated or appraised value on the other. (This simple measure can help investors determine whether a stock is a good deal. For more, see Value Investing Using The Enterprise Multiple.)
Where Does Buffett Fit?
In this context, Buffett is considered a value investor. More specifically, he relies on estimating a firms future cash flows and discounting them back to the present to get an estimated intrinsic value for a company when it comes to investing in its stock. Intrinsic value is a theoretical value assuming one could know a firms future cash flows with certainty, so the reality is that it is a very subjective measure and investors may come to widely varying estimations of intrinsic value, even when looking at the same set of data, valuation metrics, etc.
But in the context of value versus growth investing, Buffett is actually a bit of both. In his words, growth and value investing are joined at the hip and that understanding is required to find a company and underlying stock with solid growth prospects and a market value well below intrinsic value. The best illustration of this is the growth of Berkshire Hathaways non-insurance businesses over the past four decades. Below is a chart that Buffett provided in Berkshires 2010 shareholder letter:
Period Annual Earnings Growth
1970-1980 20.8%
1980-1990 18.4%
1990-2000 24.5%
2000-2010 20.5%
Over this time period, earnings growth averaged 21% annually while Berkshires stock price grew at an annual compounded rate of 22.1%, almost completely mirroring the growth in earnings. In this respect, Buffett is the ultimate growth investor because earnings grew about twice the level of the stock market during this period. In Buffetts words from this years shareholder letter, market prices and intrinsic value often follow very different paths - sometimes for extended periods - but eventually they meet. (Find out how Mr. Markets mood swings can mean great opportunities for you. See Take On Risk With A Margin of Safety.)
The Bottom Line
Again, perhaps the most appropriate conclusion to make is that Buffett is both a value and growth investor. At the outset of making an investment, it is reasonable to conclude that he uses a margin of safety by purchasing a stock with valuation metrics that are well below average. But overall, growth has to be there so that the firm can eventually trade up closer to its intrinsic value and growth potential must be well above average to double the markets return over the long haul.
To be a truly successful investor, individuals must take both a value and growth perspective when it comes to spotting undervalued investments and outperforming the market over time. Valuation multiples including P/E and P/B ratios are a good starting point, but at the end of the day it is also necessary to estimate a firms growth prospects and cash flows going forward, and come to an independent determination of intrinsic value.
Once this information becomes public knowledge, prices adjust instantaneously, so it is virtually impossible to profit from such news.
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Characteristic of some advance fee fraud solicitations and other fraudulent schemes to deceive and defraud unwary investors is the use of websites and e-mail addresses ending in “.us” or “.org” and containing “.gov” as part of the domain address. We are not aware of any U.S. government agency that has a website or e-mail address that ENDS in anything other than “.gov”, “.mil”, or “fed.us”. Accordingly, investors should beware any website or correspondence purporting to be from a U.S. government agency bearing an e-mail address that does not end in “.gov”, “.mil”, or “fed.us”.
Top-Down Analysis: Finding The Right Stocks And Sectors
The top-down investment strategy is based on determining the health of the economy (and whether you want to even be investing at that time), the strength of different sectors and then picking the strongest stocks within those sectors to maximize returns. In this article you will learn how to pinpoint the hottest sectors leading the market higher (or lower in a bear market) and how to find stocks within those sectors that will potentially maximize returns.
If your market analysis has determined that the market is in an uptrend and likely to continue for some time, you want to buy stocks that are showing the best potential to be big winners in the uptrend. Just because the market is moving higher does not mean that all stocks will perform well, and some will greatly outperform others. If we are in a bear market and the investor is not opposed to short selling, we can look for stocks that will likely perform the worst, therefore making a nice profit on the short positions as prices fall. For the remainder of this article we will only focus on uptrends, but the same principles apply to downtrends.
Pick the Right Sectors
If the market is moving higher, we can begin to look at different sectors to find which ones will provide us the greatest potential for profits. Certain sectors perform better than others, so if the market is heading higher, we want to buy stocks within sectors that are performing the best. In other words, we want to invest in sectors that are outperforming the overall market.
To find the hottest sectors, we will want to look at several time frames. Looking at two or three time frames will allow us to pick sectors that are not just performing well right now, but that have been showing strength over a longer time frame. The time frames looked at will vary from person to person depending on their overall time frame.
We only want to pick the sector that appears most often at or near the top of the list for top performing sectors. The top two or three sectors can be picked if some diversity is desired. It is within these sectors that we will be placing our investment dollars.
We can also view the charts of sector ETFs. The trend should be defined by a trend line, with the ETF showing strength as it rises off the trendline. But more importantly we want to narrow our focus to specific stocks.
Pick the Right Stocks
We could simply buy a basket of stocks reflecting the entire sector, and this could do reasonably well, but we can do better by just picking the best stocks within that sector. Just because a sector is moving higher does not mean that all stocks in that sector will be great performers, but a few will outperform; those are the ones we want in our portfolio.
One process for finding individual stocks is the same as the process for sector analysis. Within each sector, we want to find the stocks that are showing the greatest price appreciation. Once again, we can look at multiple timeframes to make sure the stock is moving well over time. The stocks that have performed the best over two or three timeframes are the stocks we will buy for our portfolio. Examine the charts of top performers by placing trending lines on the chart. The price trend should be defined and profit objectives based on chart patterns should indicate high gains relative to risk on the upside. (For a complete overview of other major strategies to compare to the technical top down approach, refer to our Stock-Picking Strategies Tutorial.)
It is important to note that there are some other factors to consider when buying a stock. Additional criteria to look at before you buy includes:
• Liquidity: Buying stocks with little volume makes it hard to sell at a fair price if quick liquidation is required. Unless you are a seasoned investor/trader, invest in stocks that trade over a couple hundred thousand shares a day.
• Price: Many investors shy away from high-priced stocks and gravitate towards low-priced stocks. Trade in stocks that are above $5, or preferably higher. This is not to say there are not good cheap stocks, or not bad expensive ones, but do not shy away from a stock just because it is a high price, or buy a stock just because it is cheap in dollar terms.
One additional note is that ETF trading has come a long way in recent years. If you do not want to hold multiple individual stocks, you may be able to find an ETF that will give you reasonably close results. There is no problem buying specific ETFs, if that is preferred, which can reasonably mirror what individual stocks would have been selected.
Exiting and Rotating
While going through this process cannot guarantee that you will make extraordinary returns, it does offer you a good chance to make better-than-market returns. Some monitoring of positions will be required to make sure your sectors and stocks are still in favor with the market. The investor must also be aware of overtrading, which can result in excessive commissions; this why we use multiple timeframes.
If your stocks or sectors begin to fall out of favor across the timeframes in which you were analyzing them, it is time to rotate into the sectors that are performing well. Your overall market analysis will also give you a guide of when you should exit positions. When major trend lines within the stocks being held, or sectors being watched, are broken, it is time to exit and look for new trade candidates. (Learn more about rotating sectors in our article Sector Rotation: The Essentials.)
Summary
This strategy does require some turnover of trades, as sectors and the leading stocks within those sectors will change over time. The object is to be in stocks that are leading the market higher in bull markets, and if you are not opposed to short selling, being short in the weakest stocks that are leading the market lower during bear markets. We do this by finding the hottest sectors (for a bull market) over a period of time and then finding the best performing stocks within that sector. By continually transferring assets into the best performing stocks we stand a good chance to make above average returns.
Is a security's current price an accurate reflection of its fair value?
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Quotes for all OTC securities are available on OTCMarkets.com by entering a symbol in the quote search area at the top left of any page. All OTCQX securities display real-time level 2 quotes while all OTCQB and OTC Pink securities display real-time inside (best bid and ask) quotations. Quotes are updated from 6:00 AM to 4:00 PM on all trading days.
From experience, most of us would agree that the market is not perfectly efficient.
4 Ways Bonds Can Fit Into Your Portfolio
February 02, 2012 | Filed Under » Bonds, Fixed Income, Interest Rates, Investing Basics, Portfolio Management
Since the early 1980s, interest rates have been on a secular decline. Since the credit crisis, governments across the world have worked to flood global financial markets with liquidity, which includes low interest rates, to try and stoke economic growth. This has served to push most interest rates to all-time lows, be it those paid on government securities, mortgage rates or the rates that banks borrow from and lend to each other. (For related reading, see Forces Behind Interest Rates.)
See: Bond Basics
With interest rates across the board so low, there is a pretty wide consensus that they will trend up in 2012 and beyond. Because bond prices move in the opposite direction of interest rates, investors holding bonds have a good chance of losing money on their holdings over the next few years. However, as with any asset class, there are pockets of the market where investors should be able to protect their principal and earn reasonable rates of returns in their bond portfolios. Below are four ways that bonds can fit into your investment profile during 2012.
Municipal Bonds
About a year ago, market strategist Meredith Whitney boldly predicted that municipal bonds in the United States would eventually see hundreds of billions of dollars in defaults, as local municipalities struggle with lower tax revenue due to the credit crisis and also find it difficult to operate after years of generous retirement benefit promises and relatedoperating costs. Other strategists echoed her negative sentiment, which served to send many investors fleeing from municipal bond funds and individual bond positions.
Lower demand has served to push bond prices down and rates up. The rate on an AAA-rated five-year municipal bond is currently at roughly 0.79%, which is currently below the current Treasury bond yield of about 0.86% for the same maturity. Additionally, municipal bonds are generally exempt from federal taxes as well as most state and local tax rates. As a result, the tax equivalent yield is even higher, and moving into lower-rated bonds that are still investment grade could garner higher rates. A five-year A-rated municipal bond yields approximately 1.35%. (To learn more, read Avoid Tricky Tax Issues On Municipal Bonds.)
Corporate Bonds
AAA corporate bonds with a five-year maturity currently yields around 1.8%, which compared to the yield of municipal bonds with the same rating is more than double. A 20-year AAA corporate bond rate is somewhat decent at around 4.45%, though it requires locking up your money in a security that doesnt reach maturity until two decades later. As with the municipal bonds, sacrificing quality but still sticking in the investment grade category can allow for some pick up in yield. For instance, those brave enough to invest in bonds issued by banks and other financial institutions, can find yield to maturities of as much as 9%.
High-Yield Bonds
Sticking on the braver side of the bond market, high-yield bonds - which is a euphemism for junk bonds - offer plenty of opportunity to gamble for yields that can match the returns of stocks. A current perusal of some high-yield bonds, which are of a much lower credit rating than the investment grade bonds mentioned above, offer yield to maturities into the double digits. Clearly, the bonds with yields in the teens on up carry significant default risk, meaning investors can lose all of their money if the firm falls into further financial distress or ends up declaringbankruptcy. (Also, check out Junk Bonds: Everything You Need To Know.)
Convertible Bonds
Convertible bonds are an interesting subset of the bond market in that they combine features of traditional bonds with stocks. Like a bond, convertibles usually have a maturity date and pay a regular coupon, which should appeal to income-minded investors. They also tend to trade like a bond in a weak market environment or when company fundamentals are weak. But they also have the upside of a stock as they are convertible into the underlying companys stock. As such, they can trade much like a stock as it reflects the performance of the stock they are convertible into. Coupon rates vary and are generally quite low, but, again, offer more upside if the underlying stock performs well.
The Bottom Line
The bond market generally does not favor investors these days. The fact that companies, governments and municipalities are jumping at the chance to issue debt at low interest rates speaks to the fact that rates are at historic lows. Recently, a 10-year Treasury bond was issued with a coupon rate below 2%, which is the first time rates were ever this low. Despite the challenging overall outlook for the asset class, there are plenty of opportunities to find ways for bonds to fit into your portfolio.
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ADRs: Invest Offshore Without Leaving Home
It was April 1927. Calvin Coolidge was president, and noteworthy events that die-hard historians or baseball fans may recall include the Italian anarchists Saccho and Vanzetti receiving their death sentences and Babe Ruth hitting the first of his 60 home runs, - a single-season record at the time. For investors, a third event in April 1927 has proved equally important and far more profitable: the debut of American depositary receipts (ADRs). (Read What Are Depositary Receipts? for background reading on this common type of security.)
An ADR represents ownership of shares in a foreign company, but it can be bought and sold just like any U.S. stock, allowing investors to diversify their portfolios with foreign assets, but skip the hassle of a foreign brokerage account. Sound intriguing? Find out how these securities work and what they can add to your portfolio.
History of the ADR and Current Stats
John Piermont Morgan (yes, that J.P. Morgan), launched the first ADR for the U.K.s Selfridges Provincial Stores Limited, the famous retailer now known as Selfridges Plc. Even the audacious J.P. Morgan probably had no idea of the trend he was touching off. As of mid-2008, there were more than 2,250 depositary programs representing more than 1,800 companies from over 70 countries listed on global stock exchanges. According to the Bank of New York Mellon, in the first half of 2008, 52 billion shares of ADRs changed hands, representing a value of $2.07 trillion.
Benefits of ADR Investing
Some benefits of ADR investing are clear. First, many international markets, especially emerging markets, have higher GDP growth rates than the United States or Europe. While the American stocks in your portfolio may be stagnating, holding a few ADRs has the potential to provide you with solid returns during downturns in domestic markets. Your broker and the financial media are always advocating diversification; ADRs represent a great avenue to diversify yourportfolio. (Read Going International to learn about this and other ways to diversify your portfolio with foreign stocks.)
Another benefit investors can realize through ADR investing is favorable currency conversions for dividends and other cash distributions. For example, if you own shares of a European ADR and the euro is strong against the dollar, a dividend increase will be that much more rewarding because the dividend payment has to be converted to dollars. (Read more in The Impact Of Currency Conversions.)
The most obvious benefit of ADRs is that they make international companies that investors would normally have to pay a premium for (or perhaps be unable to buy at all) more accessible. If you want to buy 100 shares of Petrobras, the Brazilian oil giant, all you need to do is call your broker or log onto your online brokerage account. Theres no need to find a distant relative living in Brazil to execute the trade for you.
Perils and Pitfalls
As buyers of ADRs, we treat them as we would any other securities purchase: we want to profit. However, there are issues that can arise with ADRs that arent always germane to domestic stocks. Lets use a 2008 geopolitical conflict to highlight a potential peril. Say you own some shares of a Russian oil ADR, and neighboring country Georgias military is able to knock out a couple hundred miles of pipeline. As far-flung as it seems, this scenario could come to bear, especially in a developing nation. The same goes for political unrest. Its probably best to identify dictators and not invest in companies based in nations that are ruled by these leaders, as these countries are more prone to political strife. (Due diligence is key to not getting burned by an unfamiliar investment. Read Due Diligence In 10 Easy Steps to learn what to look for.)
Of course your ADR investments are subject to some of the same risks as your domestic investments, including credit, currency and inflation risk. These should be taken into account, regardless of the state of the market. There are some markets, such as Australia and Canada, where the local currencies are tied directly to commodity prices. If gold or oil is going up, this contributes to a rise in those currencies. Of course, when those commodities fall, the currencies fall in tandem. This is just one more factor an investor needs to take into account. (Read Investing Beyond Your Borders for more risks associated with investing overseas.)
There are levels of ADRs on U.S. markets. For example, a Level I ADR trades over the counter and as such, is highly speculative. Those shares probably arent liquid and, whats worse, information on the company is scant. Keep in mind that many countries dont require their public companies to report results quarterly like the U.S. does. For better or worse, Level I issues are the fastest-growing segment of the ADR market, according to the Bank of New York Mellon.
Thinking of buying that Chinese solar company that trades 20,000 shares a day at $1.50? Its probably best to wait for it to graduate to the Nasdaq or NYSE. Level II and III ADRs are where investors want to be. These are the ADRs that trade on major U.S. exchanges and must uphold the same general reporting rules and SEC regulations as American-based corporations. (IFRS are poised to change some aspects of international reporting. Read International Reporting Standards Gain Global Recognition to learn more.)
Tax Treatment of ADRs
Tax treatment of ADRs by the IRS is generally the same as for domestic investments. Investors are subject to the same capital gains and dividend taxes at the same rates. There is a little twist, however: many countries will withhold taxes on dividends paid. While the American investor must still pay U.S. income tax on the net dividend, the amount of the foreign tax may be claimed by the investor as a deduction against income or claimed against U.S. income tax. Investors are encouraged to consult a professional tax or investment advisor to make sure they are recording (and paying taxes on) their ADR investments properly. (Read more about capital gains and dividend taxation in Dividend Facts You May Not Know.)
Conclusion
Investors should look beyond the confines of the U.S. borders in an effort to diversify and maximize returns. Many investors ignore the foreign-equity asset class entirely, and this is not beneficial to their portfolios. ADRs are one way to diversify your portfolio and help you achieve better returns when the U.S. market is in a slump.
While technical analysts use charts almost exclusively, the use of charts is not limited to just technical analysis.
Short selling is a trading strategy where an investor, believing that a security is over-valued, borrows (from a broker-dealer or institutional investor) and sells a security and then repurchases and returns (to the broker-dealer or institutional investor) the security at a lower price. The difference between the sale price and the purchase price is the investor’s profit.
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Banking On Blue Chip Stocks
Blue chip stocks, named after the highest-valued chips in poker, are prized investment holdings representing ownership in some the most successful firms in the economy. If you want to invest in companies that have proven their ability to ride out economic downturns and maintain profitability even when times get tough, you should take a look at these stocks.
Basic Characteristics of Blue Chip Stocks
A blue chip stock is a share of ownership in a large, well-established and stable company that has a long history of consistent earnings growth and dividend payments. Blue chip companies have a large market capitalization, strong balance sheets and good cash flow. Blue chip stocks have low volatility overall, but strong changes in the overall market can also have strong effects on these stocks. The performance of an individual blue chip company will tend to correlate closely with the performance of the S
This methodology assumes that a company will sell at a specific multiple of its earnings, revenues or growth. An investor may rank companies based on these valuation ratios. Those at the high end may be considered overvalued, while those at the low end may constitute relatively good value.
Under the Securities Act of 1933, a company that offers or sells its securities must register the securities with the SEC or find an exemption from the registration requirements. The Act provides companies with a number of exemptions. For some of the exemptions, such as rules 505 and 506 of Regulation D, a company may sell its securities to what are known as "accredited investors."
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10 Books Every Investor Should Read
When it comes to learning about investment, the internet is one of the fastest, most up-to-date ways to make your way through the jungle of information out there. But if youre looking for a historical perspective on investing or a more detailed analysis of a certain topic, there are several classic books on investing that make for great reading. Here we give you a brief overview of our favorite investing books of all time and set you on the path to investing enlightenment. (To find more recommended books, see Investing Books It Pays To Read.)
The Intelligent Investor (1949) by Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham is undisputedly the father of value investing. His ideas about security analysis laid the foundation for a generation of investors, including his most famous student, Warren Buffett. Published in 1949, The Intelligent Investor is much more readable than Grahams 1934 work entitled Security Analysis, which is probably the most quoted, but least read, investing book. The Intelligent Investor wont tell you how to pick stocks, but it does teach sound, time-tested principles that every investor can use. Plus, its worth a read based solely on Warren Buffetts testimonial: By far the best book on investing ever written.
Common Stocks And Uncommon Profits (1958) by Philip Fisher
Another pioneer in the world of financial analysis , Philip Fisher has had a major influence on modern investment theory. The basic idea of analyzing a stock based on growth potential is largely attributed to Fisher. Common Stocks And Uncommon Profits teaches investors to analyze the quality of a business and its ability to produce profits. First published in the 1950s, Fishers lessons are just as applicable half a century later.
Stocks For The Long Run (1994) by Jeremy Siegel
A professor at the Wharton School of Business, Jeremy Siegel makes the case for - you guessed it - investing in stocks over the long run. He draws on extensive research over the past two centuries to argue not only that equities surpass all other financial assets when it comes to returns, but also that stock returns are safer and more predictable in the face of the effects of inflation.
Learn To Earn (1995), One Up On Wall Street (1989) or Beating The Street (1994) by Peter Lynch
Peter Lynch came into prominence in the 1980s as the manager of the spectacularly performing Fidelity Magellan Fund. Learn To Earn is aimed at a younger audience and explains many business basics, One Up On Wall Street makes the case for the benefits of self-directed investing, and Beating The Street focuses on how Peter Lynch went about choosing winning stocks (or how he missed them) while running the famed Magellan Fund. All three of Lynchs books follow his common sense approach, which insists that individual investors, if they take the time to do their homework, can perform just as well or even better than the experts.
A Random Walk Down Wall Street (1973) by Burton G. Malkiel
This book popularized the ideas that the stock market is efficient and that its prices follow a random walk. Essentially, this means that you cant beat the market. Thats right - according to Malkiel, no amount of research, whether fundamental or technical, will help you in the least. Like any good academic, Malkiel backs up his argument with piles of research and statistics. It would be an understatement to say that these ideas are controversial, and many consider them just short of blasphemy. But whether you agree with Malkiels ideas or not, it is not a bad idea to take a look at how he arrives at his theories. (For further reading, see What Is Market Efficiency?)
The Essays Of Warren Buffett: Lessons For Corporate America (2001) by Warren Buffett and Lawrence Cunningham
Although Buffett seldom comments on his current holdings, he loves to discuss the principles behind his investments . This book is actually a collection of letters that Buffett wrote to shareholders over the past few decades. Its the definitive work summarizing the techniques of the worlds greatest investor. Another great Buffett book is The Warren Buffett Way by Robert Hagstrom. (For further reading, see Warren Buffett: How He Does It and What Is Warren Buffetts Investing Style?)
How To Make Money In Stocks (2003, 3rd ed.) by William J. ONeil
Bill ONeil is the founder of Investors Business Daily, a national business of financial daily newspapers, and the creator of the CANSLIM system. If you are interested in stock picking, this is a great place to start. Many other books are big on generalities with little substance, but How To Make Money In Stocks doesnt make the same mistake. Reading this book will provide you with a tangible system that you can implement right away in your research.
Rich Dad Poor Dad (1997) by Robert T. Kiyosaki
This book is all about the lessons the rich teach their kids about money, which, according to the author, poor and middle-class parents neglect. Robert Kiyosakis message is simple, but it holds an important financial lesson that may motivate you to start investing : the poor make money by working for it, while the rich make money by having their assets work for them. We cant think of a better financial book to buy for your kids.
Common Sense On Mutual Funds (1999) by John Bogle
John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group, is a driving force behind the case for index funds and against actively-managed mutual funds. In this book, he begins with a primer on investment strategy before blasting the mutual fund industry for the exorbitant fees it charges investors. If you own mutual funds, you should read this book. (To learn more, see The Truth Behind Mutual Fund Returns.)
Irrational Exuberance (2000) by Robert J. Shiller
Named after Alan Greenspans infamous 1996 comment on the absurdity of stock market valuations, Shillers book, released in Mar 2000, gives a chilling warning of the dotcom bubbles impending burst. The Yale economist dispels the myth that the market is rational and instead explains it in terms of emotion, herd behavior and speculation. In an ironic twist, Irrational Exuberance was released almost exactly at the peak of the market. (To learn more on this topic, see Understanding Investor Behavior.)
The more you know, the more youll be able to incorporate the advice of some of these experts into your own investment strategy . This reading list will get you started, but it is only a fraction of all the great resources available. Do you have a favorite investing book that weve missed? If so, let us know.
All states require financial institutions, including brokerage firms, to report when personal property has been abandoned or unclaimed after a period of time specified by state law — often five years. Before a brokerage account can be considered abandoned or unclaimed, the firm must make a diligent effort to try to locate the account owner.
Just what is represented by the current price of a security?
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Invest Without Stress
Many investors get a lot of anxiety chasing mutual fund returns, hoping that history repeats itself while they are in the fund. In fact, a fund which has already yielded large returns has less of a chance to do so again when compared with its peer group. A better idea, rather than stressing out over the vagaries of the financial markets, is to look for wisdom in time-tested, academic methods. Once your high-quality investment plan is set up, relax. Let your investment compound, understanding that the plan is rooted in knowledge, not hype.
Good Soil
As with growing a garden, you want to invest in good soil (strategy). Accordingly, you can expect there to be some rainy days (bear market) with the sunny (bull market). Both are needed for overall growth. Once a garden (money) starts to grow, dont uproot it and replant, lest it wither and die. Set up your investment wisely and then let it grow.
Academic research creates good soil. The body of knowledge about the market goes through a rigorous review process where primary goal is truth or knowledge rather than profit. Thus, the information is disinterested - something you should always look for in life to make wise decisions.
Greatly distilling this body of knowledge, here are a few key points to remember when it comes to investing in the stock market .
Risk and Return
This concept is similar to the saying there is no free lunch. In money terms, if you want more return, you are going to have to invest in funds that have a greater probability of going south (high risk). Thus, the law of large numbers really comes into play here, since investing in small, unproven companies may yield better potential returns, while larger companies which have already undergone substantial growth may not give you comparable results.
Market Efficiency
This concept says that everything you need to know about conventional investments is already priced into them. Market efficiency supports the concept of risk and return; thus, dont waste your time at the library with a Value Line investment unless it provides entertainment value. Essentially, when you look at whether or not to invest in a large corporation, it is unlikely that you are going to find any information different from what others have already found. Interestingly, this also gives insight into how you make abnormal returns by investing in unknown companies like Bobs Tomato Shack, if you really have the time and business acumen to do the front-line research.
Modern Portfolio Theory
Modern portfolio theory (MPT) basically says that you want to diversify your investments as much as possible in order to get rid of company- or stock-specific risk, thus incurring only the lowest common denominator - market risk. Essentially, you are using the law of large numbers in order to maximize returns while minimizing risk for a given market exposure.
Now here is where things get really interesting! We just found the way to optimize your risk-return tradeoff for a given market level of risk by being well diversified in your investments. However, you can further adjust the investment risk downwards by lending money (investing some of it in risk-free assets) or upwards by borrowing it (margin investing).
Best Market Portfolio
Academics have created models of the market portfolio , consisting of a weighted sum of every asset in the market, with weights in the proportions that the assets exist in the market. Many think of this as being like the S
Investor-focused companies use the quality-controlled OTCQX platform to offer investors transparent trading, superior information and easy access through their regulated U.S. broker-dealers.
The break of support signals that the forces of supply have overcome the forces of demand.
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Only FINRA registered broker-dealers may execute trades, so investors must select a broker-dealer (or multiple broker-dealers) to execute trades.
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Psychological or logical may be open for debate, but there is no questioning the current price of a security. After all, it is available for all to see and nobody doubts its legitimacy.
Getting Into International Investing
Diversification is an essential investing principle. It protects a portfolio from being seriously affected by negative events isolated to only a few stocks. In this article, we take a look at diversification that ventures into an international level, looking at its benefits and the different types of international investments available to the average investor. (To learn more, see The Importance Of Diversification.)
Why International?
Most investors tend to invest in what they know. This isnt necessarily a bad thing as its important to have a good understanding of your investments; however, it becomes detrimental when the blinders are put on and people refrain from learning about other investments. International investing, in particular, is a strategy sometimes overlooked by investors as a means of diversification.
With all the volatility found in stock markets, its difficult enough to pick winning stocks let alone winning economies. This is where diversification through international investing can help. Every year, the economic performance of a country will fluctuate and this undoubtedly affects the stock market. By buying securities in different markets as opposed to purchasing only U.S. stocks and bonds, you can reduce the impact of country or region-specific economic problems. (For more information, see Can You Learn The Stock Market?)
Take a look at the following chart:
Year Japan Nikkei
U.S. S
Valuing Firms Using Present Value Of Free Cash Flows
Decisions to invest can be made based on simple analysis such as finding a company you like with a product you think will be in demand in the future. The decision might not be based on scouring the financial statements, but the underlying reason for picking this type of company over another is still sound. Your underlying prediction is that the company will continue to produce and sell high-demand products and thus will have cash flowing back to the business. The second, and very important, part of the equation is that the companys management knows where to spend this cash to continue operations. A third assumption is that all of these potential future cash flows are worth more today than the stocks current price.
To place numbers into this idea, we could look at these potential cash flows from the operations, and find what they are worth based on their present value. In order to determine the value of a firm, an investor must determine the present value of operating free cash flows. Of course, we need to find the cash flows before we can discount them to the present value.
Calculating Operating Free Cash Flow
Operating free cash flow (OFCF) is the cash generated by operations, which is attributed to all providers of capital in the firms capital structure. This includes debt providers as well as equity. Calculating the OFCF is done by taking earnings before interest and taxes and adjusting for the tax rate, then adding depreciation and taking away capital expenditure, minus change in working capital and minus changes in other assets. Here is the actual formula:
OFCF = EBIT(1-T) depreciation - CAPEX - ??working capital - ??any other assets
Where:
EBIT = earnings before interest and taxes
T= tax rate
CAPEX = capital expenditure
This is also referred to as the free cash flow to the firm, and is calculated in such as way to reflect the overall cash-generating capabilities of the firm before deducting debt related interest expenses and non-cash items. Once we have calculated this number, we can calculate the other metrics needed such as the growth rate. (These five qualitative measures allow investors to draw conclusions about a corporation that are not apparent on the balance sheet. check out Using Porters 5 Forces To Analyze Stocks.)
Calculating the Growth Rate
The growth rate can be difficult to predict and can have a drastic effect on the resulting value of the firm. One way to calculate it is to take the return on the invested capital (ROIC) multiplied by the retention rate. The retention is the percent of earnings that are held within the company and are not paid out as dividends. This is the basic formula:
g = RR x ROIC
Where:
RR= average retention rate, or (1- payout ratio)
ROIC= EBIT(1-tax)/total capital
Present Value of Operating Free Cash Flows
The valuation method is based on the operating cash flows coming in after deducting the capital expenditures, which are the costs of maintaining the asset base. This cash flow is taken before the interest payments to debt holders in order to value the total firm. Only factoring in equity, for example, would provide the growing value to equity holders. Discounting any stream of cash flows requires a discount rate, and in this case it is the cost of financing projects at the firm. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is used for this discount rate. The operating free cash flow is then discounted at this cost of capital rate using three potential growth scenarios; no growth, constant growth and changing growth rate.
No Growth
To find the value of the firm, discount the OFCF by the WACC. This discounts the cash flows that are expected to continue for as long as a reasonable forecasting model exists.
Firm Value = ? Operating Free Cash Flowst
(1 WACC)t
Where:
Operating Free Cash Flows = the operating free cash flows in period t
WACC = weighted average cost of capital
If you are looking to find an estimate for the value of the firms equity, subtract the market value of the firms debt.
Constant Growth
In a more mature company you might find it more appropriate to include a constant growth rate in the calculation. To calculate the value, take the OFCF of next period and discount it at WACC minus the long-term constant growth rate of the OFCF.
Value of the firm = ?OFCF1
k-g
Where:
OFCF1 = operating free cash flow
k = discount rate (in this case WACC)
g = expected growth rate in OFCF
Multiple Growth Periods
Assuming the firm is about to see more than one growth stage, the calculation is a combination of each of these stages. Using the supernormal dividend growth model for the calculation, the analyst needs to predict the higher-than-normal growth and the expected duration of such activity. After this high growth, the firm might be expected to go back into a normal steady growth into perpetuity. To see the resulting calculations, assume a firm has operating free cash flows of $200 million, which is expected to grow at 12% for four years. After four years, it will return to a normal growth rate of 5%. We will assume that the weighted average cost of capital is 10%. (Learn about the components of the statement of financial position and how they relate to each other. See Reading The Balance Sheet.)
Multi-Growth Periods of Operating Free Cash Flow (in Millions)
Period OFCF Calculation Amount Present Value
1 OFCF1 $200 x 1.121 $224.00 $203.64
2 OFCF 2 $200 x 1.122 $250.88 $207.34
3 OFCF 3 $200 x 1.123 $280.99 $211.11
4 OFCF 4 $200 x 1.124 $314.70 $214.95
5 OFCF 5 … $314.7 x 1.05 $330.44
$330.44 / (0.10 - 0.05) $6,608.78
$6,608.78 / 1.104 $4,513.89
NPV $5,350.92
Table 1: The two stages of the OFCF goes from a high growth rate (12%) for four years followed by a perpetual constant 5% growth from the fifth year on. It is discounted back to the present value and summed up to $5.35 billion dollars.
Both the two-stage dividend discount model (DDM) and FCFE model allow for two distinct phases of growth: an initial finite period where the growth is abnormal, followed by a stable growth period that is expected to last forever. In order to determine the long-term sustainable growth rate, one would usually assume that the rate of growth will equal the long-term forecasted GDP growth. In each case the cash flow is discounted to the present dollar amount and added together to get a net present value.
Comparing this to the companys current stock price can be a valid way of determining the companys intrinsic value. Recall that we need to subtract the total current value of the firms debt to get the value of the equity. Then, divide the equity value by common shares outstanding to get the value of equity per share. This value can then be compared to how much the stock is selling for in the market to see if it is over- or undervalued.
The Bottom Line
Calculations dealing with the value of a firm will always use unique methods based on the firm being examined. Growth companies might need a two-period method when there is higher growth for a couple years. In a larger, more mature company you can use a more stable growth technique. It always comes down to determining the value of the free cash flows and discounting them to today. (Calculate whether the market is paying too much for a particular stock.
Complaints regarding companies should be directed to the SEC, while complaints regarding broker-dealers or other investment professionals should be directed to FINRA. More information about specific OTC regulations is covered in Part 3 – Regulation.
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The Power Of Dividend Growth
Many investors think of dividend-paying companies as boring, low-return investment opportunities. Compared to high-flying small cap companies, whose volatility can be pretty exciting, dividend-paying stocks are usually more mature and predictable. Though this may be dull for some, the combination of a consistent dividend with an increasing stock price can offer an earnings potential powerful enough to get excited about.
High Dividend Yield?
Understanding how to gauge dividend-paying companies can give us some insight into how dividends can pump up your return. A common perception is that a high dividend yield, indicating the dividend pays a fairly high percentage return on the stock price, is the most important measure; however, a yield that is considerably higher than that of other stocks in an industry may indicate not a good dividend but rather a depressed price (dividend yield = annual dividends per share/price per share). The suffering price, in turn, may signal a dividend cut or, worse, the elimination of the dividend.
The important indication of dividend power is not so much a high dividend yield but high company quality, which you can discover through its history of dividends, which should increase over time. If you are a long-term investor, looking for such companies can be very rewarding. (To learn about how dividend payouts can help you through a market downturn, see Dividend Yield For The Downturn.)
Watch: Dividend
Dividend Payout Ratio
The dividend payout ratio, the proportion of company earnings allocated to paying dividends, further demonstrates that the source of dividend profitability works in combination with company growth. Therefore, if a company keeps a dividend payout ratio constant, say at 4%, but the company grows, that 4% begins to represent a larger and larger amount. (For instance, 4% of $40, which is $1.60, is higher than 4% of $20, which is 80 cents).
Lets demonstrate with an example:
Lets say you invest $1,000 into Joes Ice Cream company by buying 10 shares, each at $100 per share. Its a well-managed firm that has a P/E ratio of 10, and a payout ratio of 10%, which amounts to a dividend of $1 per share. Thats decent, but nothing to write home about since you receive only a measly 1% of your investment as dividend.
However, because Joe is such a great manager, the company expands steadily, and after several years, the stock price is around $200. The payout ratio, however, has remained constant at 10%, and so has the P/E ratio (at 10); therefore, you are now receiving 10% of $20 in earnings, or $2 per share. As earnings increase, so does the dividend payment, even though the payout ratio remains constant. Since you paid $100 per share, your effective dividend yield is now 2%, up from the original 1%.
Watch: Dividend Yields
Now, fast forward a decade: Joes Ice Cream Company enjoys great success as more and more North Americans gravitate to hot, sunny climates. The stock price keeps appreciating and now sits at $150 after splitting 2 for 1 three times. (If you are uncertain about share splits, check out Understanding Stock Splits.)
This means your initial $1,000 investment in 10 shares has grown to 80 shares (20, then 40, and now 80 shares) worth a total of $12,000. If the payout ratio remains the same and we continue to assume a constant P/E of 10, you now receive 10% of earnings ($1,200) or $120, which is 12% of your initial investment! So, even though Joes dividend payout ratio did not change, because he has grown his company the dividends alone rendered an excellent return - they drastically expanded the total return you got, along with the capital appreciation. (For more on what dividends can do for investors, see The Importance Of Dividends.)
For decades, many investors have been using this dividend-focused strategy by buying shares in household names such as Coca-Cola (Nasdaq:COKE), Johnson
In a new account agreement, you must specify your overall investment objective in terms of risk. Categories of risk may have labels such as "income," "growth," or "aggressive growth."
Usually, companies are compared with others in the same group. For example, a telecom operator (Verizon) would be compared to another telecom operator (SBC Corp), not to an oil company (ChevronTexaco).
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6 Proven Methods For Selling Stocks
Choosing a time to sell a stock can be a very difficult task. It is especially difficult because, for most traders, it is hard to separate their emotions from their trades. The two human emotions that generally affect most traders with regards to selling a stock are greed and fear of regret. The ability to manage these emotions is key to becoming a successful trader.
Rising Profits
For example, many investors dont sell when a stock has risen 10 to 20% because they dont want to miss out on more returns if the stock shoots to the moon. This is due to their greed and the hope that the stock they picked will be a big winner. On the flip side, if the stock fell by 10 to 20%, a good majority of investors still wont sell because of their fear of regret. If they sell and the stock proceeds to rebound significantly, theyll be kicking themselves and regretting their actions.
So when should you sell your stock? This is a fundamental question that investors constantly struggle with. You need to separate out the emotion from your trading decisions. Fortunately, there are some commonly used methods that can help an investor make the process as mechanical as possible. In this article, I will look at six general strategies to help decide when to sell your stock.
Valuation-Level Sell
The first selling category well look at is called the valuation-level sell. In the valuation level sell strategy, the investor will sell a stock once it hits a certain valuation target or range. Numerous valuation metrics can be used as the basis, but some common ones that are used are the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-book (P/B), and price-to-sales (P/S). This approach is popular among value investors who buy stocks that are undervalued. It can be a good signal to sell when a stock becomes overvalued based on certain valuation metrics.
As an illustration of this method, suppose an investor holds stock in Wal-Mart that they bought when the P/E ratio was around 13 times earnings. The trader looks at the historical valuation of Wal-Mart stock and sees that the five-year average P/E is 15.5. From this, the trader could decide upon a valuation sell target of 15.5 time earnings as a fixed sell signal. So the trader has used a reasonable hypothesis to take the emotion out of his decision making. (For more on the P/E, see Profit With The Power Of Price-To-Earnings.)
Opportunity Cost Sell
The next one well look at is called the opportunity cost sell. In this method, the investor owns a portfolio of stocks and would sell a stock when a better opportunity presents itself. This requires a constant monitoring, research and analysis on both your own portfolio and potential new stock additions. Once a better potential investment has been identified, the investor would reduce or eliminate a position in a current holding that isnt expected to do as well as the new stock on a risk-adjusted return basis.
Deteriorating Fundamentals Sell
The deteriorating fundamental sell rule will trigger a stock sale if certain fundamentals in the companys financial statements fall below a certain level. This sell strategy is slightly similar to the opportunity cost in the sense that a stock sold using the previous strategy has likely deteriorated in some way. When basing a sell decision on deteriorating fundamentals, many traders will focus mainly on the balance sheet statement with emphasis on liquidity and coverage ratios. (Learn more about the balance sheet in Breaking Down The Balance Sheet.)
For example, suppose an investor owns the stock of a utilities company that pays a relatively high and consistent dividend. The investor is holding the stock mainly because of its relative safety and dividend yield. Furthermore, when the investor bought the stock, its debt-to-equity ratio was around 1.0 and its current ratio was around 1.4.
In this situation, a trading rule could be established so that the investor would sell the stock if the debt/equity ratio rose over 1.50, or if the current ratio ever fell below 1.0. If the companys fundamentals deteriorated to those levels – thus threatening the dividend and the safety - this strategy would signal the investor to sell the stock.
Down-from-Cost and Up-from-Cost Sell
The down-from cost sell strategy is another rule-based method that triggers a sell based on the amount, in percent, that youre willing to lose. For example, when an investor purchases a stock he may decide that if the stock falls 10% from where he bought it at, he would sell the stock.
Similar to the down-from cost strategy, the up-from cost strategy will trigger a stock sale if the stock rises a certain percentage. Both the down-from-cost and up-from-cost methods are essentially a stop-loss measure that will either protect the investors principal or lock in a specific amount of profit. The key to this approach is selecting an appropriate percentage that triggers the sell by taking into account the stocks historical volatility and the amount you would be willing to lose.
Target Price Sell
If you dont like using percentages, the target price sell method uses a specific stock value to trigger a sell. This is one of the most widely used ways by which investors sell a stock, as seen by the popularity of the stop-loss orders with traders and investors. Common target prices used by investors are typically ones based on valuation model outputs such as the discounted cash flow model. Many traders will base target price sells on arbitrary round numbers or support and resistance levels, but these are less sound than other fundamental based methods.
Bottom Line
Learning to accept a loss on your investment is one of the hardest things to do in investing. Oftentimes, what makes investors successful is not just their ability to choose winning stocks, but also their ability to sell stocks at the right time.
Companies that have submitted information no older than six months to the OTC Markets data and news service or have made a filing on the SEC's EDGAR system in the previous six months are rated as having current information. This category includes shell companies or development stage companies with little or no operations as well as companies without audited financial statements.
Because the September support break forms our first resistance level, we are ready to set up a resistance zone after the November high is formed, probably around early December.
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Translating Ticker Talk
Ticker symbols offer quite a bit of information to savvy investors who know what to look for when they see a ticker. In addition to identifying a company, a ticker may indicate the exchange on which a company is traded, whether that company is delinquent in terms of its Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, or if a company is currently undergoing bankruptcy proceedings. With so much information available in just a few characters, its imperative that investors learn the basics of stock ticker symbols. Here we translate ticker talk into plain English.
What Is a Ticker?
First and foremost, the word ticker refers to a series of letters or numbers identifying a particular security on a particular exchange. Stock tickers are the most familiar types of ticker symbols, though options, futures contracts and other types of securities also have ticker symbols.
A few examples of stock tickers include:
Figure 1
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You may notice that the number of characters differs for these tickers. For example, why does AT
In addition, price movements can be volatile and rise above resistance briefly.
OTC Markets Group, Inc. (OTCQX: OTCM), headquartered in New York City, operates a financial marketplaces platform providing price and liquidity information for almost 10,000[3] over-the-counter (OTC) securities. OTC-traded securities are organized into three marketplaces to inform investors of opportunities and risks: OTCQX, OTCQB and OTC Pink.
For thou convenience $SPBU BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX
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APR and APY: Why Your Bank Hopes You Cant Tell The Difference
It is often purported that Albert Einstein referred to compound interest as the greatest force on earth. Strong words from one of the smartest men to ever live. Although this articles intention is not to ponder Einsteins most compelling views, we do intend to demonstrate the importance of understanding the difference between annual percentage rate (APR) and annual percentage yield (APY). For most people, these terms are applied to loans and investment products, but they are not created equal and they significantly affect how much you earn or must pay in these transactions.
What Is Compounding?
At its most basic, compounding refers to earning interest on previous interest. All investors want to maximize compounding on their investments , while at the same time minimize it on their loans. (For more detail on this subject, see Investing 101: The Phenomenal Concept Of Compounding.)
Compounding is especially important in our APR vs. APY discussion because many financial institutions have a sneaky way of quoting interest rates that use compounding principles to their advantage. Being financially literate in this area will help you spot which interest rate you are really getting.
Defining APR and APY
APR is the annual rate of interest without taking into account the compounding of interest within that year. Alternatively, APY does take into account the effects of intra-year compounding. This seemingly subtle difference can have important implications for investors and borrowers. Here is a look at the formulas for each method:
For example, a credit card company might charge 1% interest each month; therefore, the APR would equal 12% (1% x 12 months = 12%). This differs from APY, which takes into account compound interest. The APY for a 1% rate of interest compounded monthly would be 12.68% [(1 0.01)^12 – 1= 12.68%] a year. If you only carry a balance on your credit card for one months period you will be charged the equivalent yearly rate of 12%. However, if you carry that balance for the year, your effective interest rate becomes 12.68% as a result of compounding each month.
The Borrowers Perspective
As a borrower, you are always searching for the lowest possible rate. When looking at the difference between APR and APY, you need to be worried about how a loan might be disguised as having a lower rate .
For example, when looking for a mortgage you are likely to choose a lender that offers the lowest rate. Although the quoted rates appear low, you could end up paying more for a loan than you originally anticipated.
This is because banks will often quote you the annual percentage rate (APR). As we learned earlier, this figure does not take into account any intra-year compounding either semi-annual (every six months), quarterly (every three months), or monthly (12 times per year) compounding of the loan. The APR is simply the periodic rate of interest multiplied by the number of periods in the year. This may be a little confusing at first, so lets look at an example to solidify the concept:
As you can see, even though a bank may have quoted you a rate of 5%, 7%, or 9% depending on the frequency of compounding (this may differ depending on the bank, state, country, etc), you could actually pay a much higher rate. In the case of a bank quoting an APR of 9%, this does not consider the effects of compounding. However, if you were to consider the effects of monthly compounding, as APY does, you will pay 0.38% more on your loan each year - a significant amount when you are amortizing your loan over a 25- or 30-year period.
This example should illustrate the importance of asking your potential lender what rate he or she is quoting when seeking a loan. It is also important when comparing borrowing prospects to compare apples to apples so to speak (comparing the same figures), so that you can make the most informed decision.
The Lenders Perspective
Now as you may have already guessed, it is not hard to see how standing on the other side of the lending tree can affect your results in an equally significant fashion, and how banks and other institutions will often entice individuals by quoting APY. Just as individuals who are seeking loans want to pay the lowest possible rate of interest, the same individual wants to receive the highest rate of interest when they themselves are the lender.
For example, suppose that you are shopping around for a bank to open a savings account with; obviously, you are seeking the highest rate of interest. It is in the banks best interest to quote you the APY, as opposed to the APR. They want to quote the highest possible rate they can to entice you with to their bank. They are much less likely to quote you the APR because this rate is lower than the APY given that there is some compounding during the year.
Again, it is important for the individual to acknowledge the distinction between these two rates, because they can significantly affect that amount of interest that can be accumulated in a savings account.
It should be noted that different countries have different rules and regulations in place to combat some of the unscrupulous activity surrounding quoting rates that has arisen in the past; however, there is no better insulator against these ruses than knowledge.
Summary
Whether you are shopping for a loan or seeking the highest rate of return on a savings account, be mindful of the different rates that a bank or institution quotes. Depending on which side of the lending tree you stand on, banks and institutions have different motives for quoting different rates. Always ensure you understand which rates they are quoting and then compare the equivalent rates between alternatives.
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