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Callable CDs: Check The Fine Print
If youre looking for bigger yields with limited risk, callable certificates of deposit (CD ) might be right for you. They promise higher returns than regular CDs and are FDIC insured. However, there are a few things in the fine print that you should be aware of before you turn your money over to the bank or brokerage firm, otherwise, you could end up very disappointed.
Just like a regular CD, a callable CD is a certificate of deposit that pays a fixed interest rate over its lifetime. The feature that differentiates a callable CD from a traditional CD is that the issuer owns a call option on the CD and can redeem, or call, your CD from you for the full amount before it matures. In this article, we will provide you with some important terms to watch for in the fine print of your callable CDs , should you decide to invest.
Important Terms
Callable CDs are similar in many ways to callable bonds.
Callable Date
This is the date that the issuer can call your certificate of deposit . Lets say, for example, that the call date is six months. This means that six months after you buy the CD, the bank can decide whether it wants to take back your CD and return your money with interest. Every six months after the call date, the bank will have that same option again. Well get to why the bank would want to call back the certificate shortly.
Maturity Date
The maturity date is how long the issuer can keep your money. The farther in the future the maturity date, the higher the interest rate you should expect to receive. Make sure you dont confuse maturity date with the call date. For instance, a two-year callable CD does not necessarily mature in two years. The two years refers to the period of time you have before the bank can call the CD away from you. The actual amount of time you must commit your money could be much longer. Its common to find callable CDs with maturities in the range of 15 to 20 years.
To Call, or Not to Call
A change in prevailing interest rates is the main reason the bank or brokerage firm will recall your CD on the callable date. Basically, the bank will ask itself if its getting the best deal possible based on the current interest rate environment. (To learn how interest rate changes affect other investments , see How Interest Rates Affect The Stock Market and Its In Your Interest.)
Interest Rates Decline
If interest rates fall, the issuer might be able to borrow money for less than its paying you. This means the bank will likely call back the CD and force you to find a new vehicle to invest your money in.
Example - Callable CD When Rates Decline
Suppose you have a $10,000 one-year callable CD that pays 5% with a five-year maturity. As the one-year call date approaches, prevailing interest rates drop to 4%. The bank has therefore dropped its rates too, and is only paying 4% on its newly issued one-year callable CDs.
Why should I pay you 5%, when I can borrow the same $10,000 for 4%?, your banker is going ask. Heres your principal back plus any interest we owe you. Thank you very much for your business.
The good news is that you got a higher CD rate for one year. But what do you do with the $10,000 now? Youve run into the problem of reinvestment risk.
Perhaps you were counting on the $500 per year interest ($10,000 x 5% = $500) to help pay for your annual vacation. Now youre stuck with just $400 ($10,000 x 4% = $400) if you buy another one-year callable CD. Your other choice is to try to find a place to put your money that pays 5% such as by purchasing a corporate bond - but that might involve more risk than you wanted for this $10,000 . (For more on the risks of these bonds, see Corporate Bonds: An Introduction To Credit Risk.)
Interest Rates Rise
If prevailing interest rates increase, your bank probably wont call your CD. Why would it? It would cost more to borrow elsewhere.
Example - Callable CD When Rates Rise
Lets look at your $10,000 one-year callable CD again. Its paying you 5%. This time, assume that prevailing rates have jumped to 6% by the time the callable date hits. Youll continue to get your $500 per year, even though newly issued callable CDs earn more. But what if youd like to get your money out and reinvest at the new, higher rates?
Sorry, your banker says, only we can decide if youll get your money early.
Unlike the bank, you cant call the CD and get your principal back - at least not without penalties called early surrender charges. As a result, youre stuck with the lower rate. If rates continue to climb while you own the callable CD, the bank will probably keep your money until the CD matures.
What to Watch For
Whos Selling
Anyone can be a deposit broker to sell CDs. There are no licensing or certification requirements. This means you should always check with your states securities regulator to see whether your broker or your brokers company has any history of complaints or fraud.
Early Withdrawal
If you want to get your money before the maturity date, there is a possibility youll run into surrender charges. These fees cover the maintenance costs of the CD and are put in place to discourage you from trying to withdraw your money early. You wont always have to pay these fees; if you have held the certificate for a long enough period of time these fees will often be waived.
Check the Issuer
Each bank or thrift institution depositor is limited to $100,000 in FDIC insurance. There is a potential problem if your broker invests your CD money with an institution where you have other FDIC insured accounts. If the total is more than $100,000, you run the risk of exceeding your FDIC coverage. (To learn more, read Are Your Bank Deposits Insured?)
Wrap Up: Callable or Non-Callable?
With all of the extra hassle they involve, why would you bother to purchase a callable CD rather than a non-callable one? Ultimately, callable CDs shift the interest-rate risk to you, the investor. Because youre taking on this risk, youll tend to receive a higher return than youd find with a traditional CD with a similar maturity date.
Before you invest, you should compare the rates of the two products. Then, think about which direction you think interest rates are headed in the future. If you have concerns about reinvestment risk and prefer simplicity, callable CDs probably arent for you.
Use this checklist when you are shopping for callable CDs to help you keep track of the important information.
Callable CD Checklist
Traditional CD Callable CD #1 Callable CD #2
Callable Date N/A
Maturity Date
Seller Background
Surrender Fee
Issuer
Interest Rate
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Most investors maintain a "cash" account that requires payment in full for each security purchase. But if you open a "margin" account, you can buy securities by borrowing money from your broker for a portion of the purchase price. For more information about how margin accounts work, read our publication, Margin: Borrowing Money To Pay for Stocks and FINRA's Investor Alert on this subject.
Losing Money? Dont Blame Your Broker
Wall Street has been home to more than its fair share of scandals dealing with everything from accounting, research and access, and initial public offerings. Maybe youve just lost a fortune in the market. The money is gone, and it must be somebodys fault. There must be some way to get the money back. The next step seems obvious: sue your broker.
While it is true that you may be able to recover some or all of your losses based on broker misdeeds or misinformation, keep in mind your broker and other outside forces frequently arent solely to blame. All too often, the real culprit is staring back at you every time you look in the mirror. In this article, well look at some of the things an investor should do ensure a healthy, lawyer-free relationship with his or her broker.
A Sucker Is Born Every Minute
One of capitalisms most astounding aspects is how legions of people willingly hand over their money to complete strangers without making so much as a single telephone call to verify the strangers claims of credibility.
After giving their wallets to the stranger, these people simply sit back and wait for the money to start pouring in. And if they dont get rich and lose a portion of their initial investment, they call a lawyer and sue. On occasion, they even win the lawsuit! Win or lose though, they still feel wronged. They are victims. They have been taken advantage of by unscrupulous capitalists ... or have they?
Your Obligations As An Investor
Becoming an investor gives you certain rights. When you buy stock in a public company, for example you are entitled to a number of opportunities and rewards.
However, as an intelligent investor (or, at least as somebody who would prefer not to be victimized), you also have an obligation to do all you can to learn about the person or organization you trust with your money and the investments your money will be used to purchase. Before blindly handing over your cash, the first step is making sure youve made a strong effort to hire the right kind of help.
Start by conducting some due diligence of your own. It is the safest way to protect your investments. After all, nobody cares about your money as much as you do! It doesnt take a genius to check references and ask questions about a broker. And, of course, the only dumb question is the one that wasnt asked.
Hiring someone to give advice doesnt absolve an investor of the responsibility for accepting that advice. Once the decision has been made to hire outside help, the investors obligation to pay attention and remain fully engaged in the process doesnt disappear.
As an investor:
• Every piece of paper that you are given must be read.
• Every disclosure document must be reviewed until you understand it.
• Every item that you find confusing must be questioned.
• Every investment that you make must be researched until you are positive that you completely understand it.
• Never sign anything that you dont understand, and always get a copy of everything that you do sign.
(For additional information about the sometimes naive expectations of investors, check out Do You Understand Investment Risk?)
What If You Did Your Homework, But Still Found Trouble?
If you have chosen well, the person providing financial advice to you has a fiduciary obligation to give you good advice. Despite that obligation, nobody is right every time. Before you blame your advisor for your losses, be sure you know your rights and responsibilities. If you have truly been a responsible investor, but still feel youve been the victim of a scam, you can take your issue to arbitration, or, in the most extreme case, consult a lawyer and head off to court.
Of course, the reality of litigation is often less rewarding than most people would hope. The process takes time and, if you actually get any money back, you may not get enough to cover the full amount of your loss. To put the odds in your favor, tread slowly and carefully any time money is involved. Set realistic expectations and, if it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
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The term "person associated with a broker or dealer" or "associated person of a broker or dealer" means any partner, officer, director, or branch manager of such broker or dealer (or any person occupying a similar status or performing similar functions), any person directly or indirectly controlling, controlled by, or under common control with such broker or dealer, or any employee of such broker or dealer, except that any person associated with a broker or dealer whose functions are solely clerical or ministerial shall not be included in the meaning of such term for purposes of section 15(b) (other than paragraph (6) thereof).
Digging Deeper Into Bull And Bear Markets
Almost every day in the investing world, you will hear the terms bull and bear to describe market conditions. As common as these terms are, however, defining and understanding what they mean is not so easy. Because the direction of the market is a major force affecting your portfolio, its important you know exactly what the terms bull and bear market actually signify, how they are characterized and how each affects you.
What Are Bear and Bull Markets?
Used to describe how stock markets are doing in general - that is, whether they are appreciating or depreciating in value - these two terms are constantly buzzing around the investing world. At the same time, because the market is determined by investors attitudes, these terms also denote how investors feel about the market and the ensuing trend.
Simply put, a bull market refers to a market that is on the rise. It is typified by a sustained increase in market share prices. In such times, investors have faith that the uptrend will continue in the long term. Typically, the countrys economy is strong and employment levels are high.
On the other hand, a bear market is one that is in decline. Share prices are continuously dropping, resulting in a downward trend that investors believe will continue in the long run, which, in turn, perpetuates the spiral. During a bear market, the economy will typically slow down and unemployment will rise as companies begin laying off workers.
Where Did the Terms Come From?
The origins of the terms bull and bear are unclear, but here are two of the most common explanations:
1. The bear and bull markets are named after the way in which each animal attacks its victims. It is characteristic of the bull to drive its horns up into the air, while a bear, on the other hand, like the market that bears its name, will swipe its paws downward upon its unfortunate prey. Furthermore, bears and bulls were literally once fierce opponents when it was popular to put bulls and bears into the arena for a fight match. Matches using bulls and bears (whether together or gains other animals) took place in the Elizabethan era in London and were also a popular spectator sport in ancient Rome.
2. Historically, the middlemen who were involved in the sale of bearskins would sell skins that they had not yet received and, as such, these middlemen were the first short sellers. After promising their customers to deliver the paid-for bearskins, these middlemen would hope that the near-future purchase price of the skins from the trappers would decrease from the current market price. If the decrease occurred, the middlemen would make a personal profit from the spread between the price for which they had sold the skins and the price at which they later bought the skins from the trappers. These middlemen became known as bears, short for bearskin jobbers, and the term stuck for describing a person who expects or hopes for a decrease in the market.
Characteristics of a Bull and Bear Market
Although we know that a bull or bear market condition is marked by the direction of stock prices, there are some accompanying characteristics of the bull and bear markets that investors should be aware of. The following list describes some of the factors that generally are affected by the current market type, but do keep in mind that these are not steadfast or absolute rules for typifying either bull or bear markets:
• Supply and Demand for Securities - In a bull market, we see strong demand and weak supply for securities. In other words, many investors are wishing to buy securities while few are willing to sell. As a result, share prices will rise as investors compete to obtain available equity. In a bear market, the opposite is true as more people are looking to sell than buy. The demand is significantly lower than supply and, as a result, share prices drop. (For more on this, read Economics Basics: Demad and Supply.)
• Investor Psychology - Because the markets behavior is impacted and determined by how individuals perceive that behavior, investor psychology and sentiment are fundamental to whether the market will rise or fall. Stock market performance and investor psychology are mutually dependent. In a bull market, most everyone is interested in the market, willingly participating in the hope of obtaining a profit. During a bear market, on the other hand, market sentiment is negative as investors are beginning to move their money out of equities and into fixed-income securities until there is a positive move. In sum, the decline in stock market prices shakes investor confidence, which causes investors to keep their money out of the market - which, in turn, causes the decline in the stock market. (For related reading, see Taking A Chance On Behavioral Finance.)
• Change in Economic Activity - Because the businesses whose stocks are trading on the exchanges are the participants of the greater economy, the stock market and the economy are strongly connected. A bear market is associated with a weak economy as most businesses are unable to record huge profits because consumers are not spending nearly enough. This decline in profits, of course, directly affects the way the market values stocks. In a bull market, the reverse occurs as people have more money to spend and are willing to spend it, which, in turn, drives and strengthens the economy.
How to Gauge Market Changes
The key determinant of whether the market is bull or bear is the long-term trend, not just the markets knee-jerk reaction to a particular event. Small movements only represent a short-term trend or a market correction. Of course, the length of the time period that you are viewing will determine whether you see a bull or bear market.
For instance, the last two weeks could have shown the market to be bullish while the last two years may have displayed a bearish tendency. Thus, most agree that a decided reversal in the market should be ascertained by the degree of the change: if multiple indexes have changed by at least 15-20%, investors can be quite certain the market has taken a different direction. If the new trend does continue, it is because investors are perceiving a changes in both market and economic conditions and are thus making decisions accordingly.
Not all long movements in the market can be characterized as bull or bear. Sometimes a market may go through a period of stagnation as it tries to find direction. In this case, a series of up and downward movements would actually cancel-out gains and losses resulting in a flat market trend.
What To Do?
In a bull market, the ideal thing for an investor to do is take advantage of rising prices by buying early in the trend and then selling them when they have reached their peak. (Of course, determining exactly when the bottom and the peak will occur is impossible.) On the whole, when investors have a tendency to believe that the market will rise (thus being bullish), they are more likely to make profits in a bull market. As prices are on the rise, any losses should be minor and temporary. During the bull market, an investor can actively and confidently invest in more equity with a higher probability of making a return.
In a bear market, however, the chance of losses is greater because prices are continually losing value and the end is not often in sight. Even if you do decide to invest with the hope of an upturn, you are likely to take a loss before any turnaround occurs. Thus, most of the profitability will be found in short selling or safer investments such as fixed-income securities. An investor may also turn to defensive stocks, whose performances are only minimally affected by changing trends in the market and are therefore stable in both economic gloom and boom. These are industries such as utilities, which are often owned by the government and are necessities that people buy regardless of the economic condition.
Conclusion
There is no sure way to predict market trends, so investors should invest their money based on the quality of the investments. At the same time, however, you should have an understanding of long-term market trends from a historical perspective. Because both bear and bull markets will have a large influence over your investments, do take the time to determine what the market is doing when you are making an investment decision. Remember though, in the long term, the market has posted a positive return.
Feast thine eyes upon $SRCH BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX
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The security is a Grey Market security. Grey Market securities do not have any quotes in either OTC Link or the OTCBB. Grey Market securities are indicated in OTCMarkets.com by a grey triangle next to the symbol or on the top right of the quote page.
Financial Statement Manipulation An Ever-Present Problem For Investors
Financial statement manipulation is an ongoing problem in corporate America. Although the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken many steps to mitigate this type of corporate malfeasance, the structure of management incentives, the enormous latitude afforded by theGenerally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the ever-present conflict of interest between the independent auditor and the corporate client continues to provide the perfect environment for such activity. Due to these factors, investors who purchase individual stocks or bonds must be aware of the issues, warning signs and the tools that are at their disposal in order to mitigate the adverse implications of these problems.
Factors That Contribute to Financial Statement Manipulation
There are three primary reasons why management manipulates financial statements. First, in many cases the compensation of corporate executives is directly tied to the financial performance of the company. As a result, management has a direct incentive to paint a rosy picture of the companys financial condition in order to meet established performance expectations and bolster their personal compensation.
Second, it is relatively easy to manipulate corporate financial statements because the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), which sets the GAAP standards, provides a significant amount of latitude in the accounting provisions that are available to be used by corporate management. For better or worse, these GAAP standards afford a significant amount of flexibility, making it very easy for corporate management to paint a favorable picture of the financial condition of the company.
Third, it is unlikely that financial manipulation will be detected by investors due to the relationship between the independent auditor and the corporate client. In the U.S., the Big Four accounting firms and a host of smaller regional accounting firms dominate the corporate auditing environment. While these entities are touted as independent auditors, the firms have a direct conflict of interest because they are compensated by the very companies that they audit. As a result, the auditors could be tempted to bend the accounting rules to portray the financial condition of the company in a manner that will keep their client happy. Moreover, auditors typically receive a significant amount of money from the companies that they audit. Therefore, there is implicit pressure to certify the financial statements of the company in order to retain their business.
How Financial Statements Are Manipulated
There are two general approaches to manipulating financial statements. The first approach is to inflate current period earnings on the income statement by artificially inflating revenue and gains, or by deflating current period expenses. This approach makes the financial condition of the company look better than it actually is in order to meet established expectations.
The second approach to financial statement manipulation requires the exact opposite tactic, which is to deflate current period earnings on the income statement by deflating revenue or by inflating current period expenses. The reason behind this approach may not be as obvious as in the previous example because it may seem counterintuitive to make the financial condition of a company look worse than it actually is. However, there are many reasons to engage in such activity, such as making a company look bad in order to dissuade potential acquirers, pulling all of the bad financial information surrounding the company into one period so that the company will look stronger going forward, pulling all of the bad financial information into the current period when the poor performance can be attributed to the current macroeconomic environment or to postpone good financial information to a future period when it is more likely to be recognized.
According to Dr. Howard Schilit, in his famous book Financial Shenanigans (2002), there are seven primary ways in which corporate management manipulates the financial statements of a company. Lets look at these seven general categories of financial statement manipulation and the typical accounting processes that facilitate the manipulation.
1. Recording Revenue Prematurely or of Questionable Quality
o Recording revenue prior to completing all services
o Recording revenue prior to product shipment
o Recording revenue for products that are not required to be purchased
2. Recording Fictitious Revenue
o Recording revenue for sales that did not take place
o Recording investment income as revenue
o Recording proceeds received through a loan as revenue
3. Increasing Income with One-Time Gains
o Increasing profits by selling assets and recording the proceeds as revenue
o Increasing profits by classifying investment income or gains as revenue
4. Shifting Current Expenses to an Earlier or Later Period
o Amortizing costs too slowly
o Changing accounting standards to foster manipulation
o Capitalizing normal operating costs in order to reduce expenses by moving them from the income statement to the balance sheet
o Failing to write down or write off impaired assets
5. Failing to Record or Improperly Reducing Liabilities
o Failing to record expenses and liabilities when future services remain
o Changing accounting assumptions to foster manipulation
6. Shifting Current Revenue to a Later Period
o Creating a rainy day reserve as a revenue source to bolster future performance
o Holding back revenue
7. Shifting Future Expenses to the Current Period as a Special Charge
o Accelerating expenses into the current period
o Changing accounting standards to foster manipulation, particularly through provisions for depreciation, amortization and depletion
Investors should understand that there are a host of techniques that are at managements disposal. However, what investors also need to understand is that while most of these techniques pertain to the manipulation of the income statement, there are also many techniques available to manipulate the balance sheet, as well as the statement of cash flows . Moreover, even the semantics of the management discussion and analysis section of the financials can be manipulated by softening the action language used by corporate executives from will to might, probably to possibly, and therefore to maybe. Taken collectively, investors should understand these issues and nuances and remain on guard when assessing a companys financial condition.
Financial Manipulation via Corporate Merger or Acquisition
Another form of financial manipulation can be found during the merger or acquisition process. A classic approach to this type of manipulation occurs when management tries to persuade all parties involved in the decision-making process to support a merger or acquisition based primarily on the improvement in the estimated earnings per share of the combined companies. Lets look at the table below in order to understand how this type of manipulation takes place.
Proposed Corporate Acquisition Acquiring Company Target Company Combined Financials
Common Stock Price
$100.00
$40.00
-
Shares Outstanding
100,000
50,000
120,000
Book Value of Equity
$10,000,000
$2,000,000
$12,000,000
Company Earnings
$500,000
$200,000
$700,000
Earnings Per Share $5.00 $4.00 $5.83
Based on the data in the table above, the proposed acquisition of the target company appears to make good financial sense because the earnings per share of the acquiring company will be materially increased from $5 per share to $5.83 per share. However, the earnings per share of the acquiring company will increase by a material amount for only two reasons, and neither reason has any long-term implications.
Following the acquisition, the acquiring company will experience an increase of $200,000 in company earnings due to the addition of the income from the target company. Moreover, given the high market value of the acquiring companys common stock, and the low book value of the target company, the acquiring company will only have to issue an additional 20,000 shares in order to make the $2 million acquisition. Taken collectively, the significant increase in company earnings and the modest increase of 20,000 common shares outstanding will lead to a more attractiveearning per share amount. Unfortunately, a financial decision based primarily on this type of analysis is inappropriate and misleading, because the future financial impact of such an acquisition may be positive, immaterial or even negative.
How to Guard Against Financial Statement Manipulation
There are a host of factors that may affect the quality and accuracy of the data at an investors disposal. As a result, investors must have a working knowledge of financial statement analysis, including a strong command of the use of internal liquidity solvency analysis ratios, externalliquidity marketability analysis ratios, growth and corporate profitability ratios, financial risk ratios and business risk ratios. Investors should also have a strong understanding of how to use market multiple analysis, including the use of price/earnings ratios, price/book value ratios, price/sales ratios and price/cash flow ratios in order to gauge the reasonableness of the financial data .
Finally, investors should keep in mind that the independent auditors responsible for providing the audited financial data may very well have a material conflict of interest that is distorting the true financial picture of the company and that the information provided to them by corporate management may be disingenuous, and therefore should be taken with a grain of salt.
The Bottom Line
The known prevalence and magnitude of the material issues associated with the compilation of corporate financial statements should remind investors to use extreme caution in their use and interpretation. There are many cases of financial manipulation that date back over the centuries, and recent examples such as Enron, Worldcom, Tyco International, Adelphia, Global Crossing, Cendant, Freddie Mac and AIG should remind investors of the potential land mines that they may encounter. Investors should also remember the corporate malfeasance recently conducted by the now defunct auditing firm Arthur Anderson, as well as the disingenuous information provided to the general public by the corporate executives of 360 Networks, Lehman Brothers and General Motors leading up to their bankruptcies. Extreme caution should be used while conducting financial statement analysis.
Finally, given the prevalence and magnitude of the material issues surrounding financial statement manipulation in corporate America, a strong case can be made that most investors should stick to investing in low-cost, diversified, actively-managed mutual funds in order to mitigate the likelihood of investing in companies that suffer from such corporate financial malfeasance. Simply put, financial statement analysis should be left to investment management teams that have the knowledge, background and experience to thoroughly analyze a companys financial picture before making an investment decision. Unfortunately, very few investors have the necessary time, skills and resources to engage in such activity, and therefore the purchase of individual securities by most investors is probably not a wise decision.
Arbitrage is the trading strategy that takes advantage of the price differential between two or more markets for the same underlying asset. Investors and traders profit from the price differential by buying at the cheaper price and selling at the higher price or vice versa. In liquid markets, arbitrage is a short-term strategy because traders quickly recognize the imbalance and correct their prices.
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Information Overload: How It Hurts Investors
Our information-based society is often plagued with excess. There are many areas of everyday life in which information overload prevails, but the investment sector may well be where the consequences are the most serious. And the less financial knowledge and understanding people have, the worse they cope.
Information Overload Leads to Bad Decisions and Passivity
An important investigation on this very issue by Julie Agnew and Lisa Szykman (both professors at the Mason School of Business, Williamsburg, VA), published in the Journal of Behavioral Finance (2004), reveals that people with a low level of financial knowledge suffer particularly from overload, which leads them to take the path of least resistance, the default option in defined contribution retirement plans. Many are simply overwhelmed and cannot cope at all. (For a related reading, see Taking A Chance On Behavioral Finance.)
TUTORIAL: Behavioral Finance Use Investment Information Effectively
For a lot of people, financial security and peace of mind depend on making the right financial decisions now and in the future. Yet, there is growing evidence that far too many individuals make very poor decisions, and many cannot be described as making decisions at all.
While some investors inevitably have too little information, others have too much, which leads to panic and either bad decisions or trusting the wrong people. When people are exposed to too much information, they tend to withdraw from the decision-making process and reduce their efforts. (A lack of information, which one could call underload can have the same result, by the way, and is certainly just as dangerous).
In other words, simply providing people with information about investment options, may not be enough to produce rational and sound decisions. Investment information needs not only to be sufficient without being overwhelming, it also needs to be easy to use, and actually be used. This is a very real problem with potentially dreadful consequences. (To learn more, see Financial Media 4-1-1 For Investors.)
The Specific Causes of Overload
Agnew and Szykman tell us that there are three main causes of information overload. One is pure quantity. The second is having too many options (although too few is also bad), and the third factor is option similarity. If everything seems the same, differentiating one alternative from another is confusing and difficult. Well use their findings to extend to general investors rather than simply DC plan contributors.
Also important in the use of information is the investors level of financial knowledge. That is, knowledge which is directly relevant to the investment process. Theoretical economic or general business knowledge may be no help at all, being too removed from the nuts and bolts of money management. We are talking here about an awareness of how investment should be done in practice, what works and what does not.
The research indicates that many investors dont even have a basic understanding of financial concepts. This applies more to those who earn less. Not surprisingly, people who have never had much money, have had little practice in investing it. For this reason, someone who suddenly wins the lottery or inherits is often at a loss, initially metaphorically and then, not uncommonly, literally. (For a related reading, see Do Financial Decisions Get Better With Age?)
Consequences of Overload: Asset Misallocation
Floundering in a maze of information opens people up to misselling. Namely, getting really lousy, unsuitable investments foisted on them. These may be too risky, too conservative or insufficiently undiversified, to name just three of the classic horrors. In short, investors land up with investments that are lucrative only for the seller, or which are simply easy to sell and no trouble to manage.
In their experiment, Agnew and Szykman found that people who were not coping with the investment information just went for the default option, which was easiest to do. They did not bother to find out what is really best for them. In the real world of investment, this is truly dangerous. An investment that is totally devoid of risk, just cash, for instance, really does not pay off in the long run. This option may lead to an inadequate retirement fund, and almost everyone should have some equities.
By contrast, having too many stocks or weird, exotic funds, assets and certificates, is extremely volatile and can win or lose you a fortune. Most investors do not want such risks, and are often unaware that they are taking them – until disaster strikes. This kind of portfolio can lead to wealth, if you are lucky, and poverty if you are not. For most people, it is not worth the gamble, neither psychologically nor financially. (To learn more, see Achieving Optimal Asset Allocation.)
Coping with Information Overload
This can be done from both sides of the market. Brokers, banks and so on, need to ensure that they only provide investors with what they really need to know, and it must be simple to understand. The point is that the average investor needs to be informed sufficiently (but no more) on what will help them make the right decisions. There is a clear optimum, beyond which dysfunctional overload occurs, and of course, too little is just as bad. It is also absolutely essential for the sell side to ensure that the information is understood and converted into the appropriate investment decisions.
If investors themselves find they are being swamped with information, and truly do not have the skills or time to figure it out and use it, they need to go back to the seller and ask for concise information that they can use. If this fails to be provided, it is probably best to take ones money and business elsewhere.
Investors themselves do need to make an effort to find out what is appropriate for them. As indicated above, this can be daunting, but for this reason, sellers and regulators need to get the message across that the more they learn and the more they know, the safer the investment process.
There are inevitably some people who just cannot or will not understand the information and use it. This may be due to a lack of education or a phobia about money, and some people are just not prepared to bother with their money. Such individuals do then need some sort of independent advisor whom they can trust. (For more, see Advice For Finding The Best Advisor.)
Conclusion
An important research project from the Mason School of Business in Virginia informs us of the very serious problem of information overload (or the converse of underload) in the financial services industry. Ensuring that investors have an optimal amount of information that they can (and do) understand, and really use as a basis for decision making, is easier said than done. But it must be done; both the industry and investors themselves need to be proactive in solving the problem. The variety of potential investments, and the evolving nature of the relevant markets means that an ongoing, reciprocal and productive process of information provision and utilization is absolutely fundamental to peoples financial future and peace of mind.
Broker-dealers may charge an additional ‘access fee’ to broker-dealers who want to trade at their quoted price. The fee maximums are based on the tick size (> .01) or price (< .01). OTC Markets QAP (Quote Access Payment) functionality allows broker-dealer to dynamically set their fees or rebates.
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3 Psychological Quirks That Affect Your Trading
The most troublesome problems we face as traders are the ones that we dont even know exist. Certain human tendencies affect our trading, yet we are often completely unaware they are affecting us and our bottom line. While there are many human tendencies, we will look at three that, if not managed, can block the road toward achieving our financial goals.
The Enemy We Dont Know
When dealing with trading in a technical way, we can see where we erred and attempt to fix it for next time. If we exit a trade too early in a move, we can adjust our exit criteria by looking at a longer time frame or by using a different indicator. However, when we have a solid trading plan and are still losing money, we need to look at ourselves and our own psychology for a solution. (Test your investment strategy before entering the market, but first read Stimulate Your Skills With Simulated Trading.)
When we deal with our own minds, often our objectivity is skewed and, thus, cannot properly fix the problem; the true problem is clouded by biases and superficial trivialities. An example of this is the trader who does not stick to a trading plan, but fails to realize that not sticking to it is the problem, so he continually adjusts strategies, believing that is where the fault rests.
Awareness is Power
While there is no magic bullet for overcoming all of our problems or trading struggles, becoming aware of some possible base issues allows us to begin to monitor our thoughts and actions, so that over time we can change our habits. Awareness of potential psychological pitfalls can allow us to change our habits, hopefully creating more profits, lets look at three common psychological quirks that can often cause such problems.
Sensory Derived Bias
We pull information from around us to form an opinion or bias and this allows us to function and learn, in many cases. However, we must realize that, while we may believe we are forming an opinion based on factual evidence, often we are not. If a trader watches the business news each day and forms an opinion that the market is going higher, based on all the available information, he may feel he came to this conclusion by stripping away the media personnels opinions and only listening to the facts. However, this trader still may face a problem: When the source of our information is biased, our own bias will be affected by that.
Even facts can be presented to give credence to the bias or opinion, but we must remember there is always another side to the story. Furthermore, constant exposure to a single opinion or viewpoint will lead individuals to believe that that is the only practical stance on the subject. Since they are deprived of counter evidence, their opinion will be biased by the available information.
Avoiding the Vague
Also known as fear of the unknown, avoiding what may occur, or what is not totally clear to us, prevents us from doing many things and can keep us locked in an unprofitable state. While it may sound ridiculous to some, traders may actually fear making money. They may not be aware of it consciously, but traders often worry about expanding their comfort zone, or simply fear that their profits will be taken away through taxes. Inevitably, this may lead to self sabotage. Another source of bias may come from trading only in the industry with which one is most familiar, even if that industry has been, and is predicted to continue, declining. The trader is avoiding an outcome because of the uncertainty associated with the investment. (To learn about the home bias, check out Is Biased Investing Holding You Back?)
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Another common tendency relates to holding onto the losers too long, while selling the winners too quickly. When prices fluctuate we must factor in the magnitude of the movement, to determine if the change is due to noise or is the result of a fundamental effect. Pulling out of trades too quickly often results from ignoring the trend of the security, as investors adopt a risk-averse mentality. On the other hand, when investors experience a loss, they often become risk seekers, resulting in an over-held losing position. These deviations from rational behavior lead to irrational actions, causing investors to miss out on potential gains, due to psychological biases. (For insight into investors attitudes, refer to Understanding Investor Behavior.)
Tangibility of Anticipation
Anticipation is a powerful feeling. Anticipation is often associated with an I want or I need type of mentality. What we anticipate coming is some time in the future, but the feeling of anticipation is here now and it can be an enjoyable emotion. It can be so enjoyable, in fact, that we make feeling anticipation our focus, instead of achieving what it is we are anticipating in the first place. Knowing that a million dollars is going to show up on your doorstep tomorrow would create a fantastic feeling of excitement and anticipation. It is possible to become addicted to this feeling and thus put off taking payment.
While easy money delivered to the door is more than likely to be grabbed by the eager homeowner, when things are not quite as easy to come by, we can fall into using the feeling of anticipation as a consolation prize. Watching billions of dollars change hands each day, but not having the confidence to follow a plan and take a chunk of the money, can mean we subconsciously decided that dreaming about the profits is good enough. We want to be profitable, but wanting has become our goal, not profitability.
What to Do About It
Once we are aware that we may be affected by our own psychology, we realize it may affect our trading on a subconscious level. Awareness is often enough to inspire change, if we do in fact work to improve our trading.
There are several things we can do to overcome our psychological roadblocks, beginning with removing inputs that are obviously biased. Charts dont lie, but our perceptions of them may. We stand the best chance of success if we remain objective and focus on simple strategies that extract profits from price movements. Many great traders avoid the opinions of others, when it comes to the markets, and realize when an opinion may be affecting their trading.
Knowing how the markets operate and move will help us overcome our fear, or greed, while in trades. When we feel we have entered unknown territory where we dont know the outcome, we make mistakes. However, if we have a firm understanding, at least probabilistically, of how the markets move, we can base our actions on objective decision making.
Finally, we need to lay out what we really want, why we want it and how we are going to get there. Listen in on the thoughts that run through your head right when you make a mistake, and think about the belief behind it; then work to change that belief in your everyday life.
The Bottom Line
Our biases can affect our trading, even when we dont think we are trading on biased information. Also, when an outcome appears vague, we err in our judgment, even though we have a conception of how the market is supposed to move. Our anticipations can also be deterrents from achieving what it is we think we want. To aid us in these potential problems, we can remove biased inputs, gain more understanding of market probabilities and define what it is we really want from our trading.
Many companies in the lower market tiers of the OTC categorization system do not meet the U.S. listing requirements for trading on a stock exchange such as the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ. Many of these issuers do not file periodic reports or make available audited financial statements, making it very difficult for investors to find reliable, unbiased information about those companies. For these reasons the SEC views many of the lower tier companies traded on OTC Markets as "among the most risky investments.
Whisper Numbers: Should You Listen?
During earnings season - the time when companies publicly report their results from the last quarter - many whisper numbers can be heard floating around Wall Street and on the Internet. It can be a period of extreme stock market volatility; the companies that dont meet earnings estimates are usually hammered hard, and experience a decline in share price. However, even companies that meet earnings estimates can suffer if they dont match the seemingly mysterious whisper number. What are whisper numbers? Where do they come from? Well attempt to demystify the whisper number, and evaluate its importance to you as an individual investor. (To learn more, see 5 Tricks Companies Use During Earnings Season.)
Earnings Estimates
When a company releases its earnings, any increase or decrease in its profitability is secondary to how well the company fared compared to investor expectations. This is because a stocks price almost always takes into account all future information. In other words, how well (or poorly) a company is expected to do is already built into a stocks price. For example, the market will punish a company that is expected to grow earnings by 20% if actual earnings only increase by 15%. Conversely, a company thats expected to grow 10% but expands 12% will be rewarded. This phenomenon occurs because future earnings are the driving force behind share price valuations. An unexpected earnings surprise for a companys current quarter will very likely have far-reaching effects on earnings forecasts for many years to come, and can significantly change how investors calculate the present value of the companys shares. (For further reading, see Getting The Real Earnings and How To Evaluate The Quality Of EPS.)
It is not surprising, then, that most analysts spend the majority of their time trying to make an exact prediction of a companys future earnings, called forward earnings. Surprising or disappointing Wall Street estimates by even a few cents can have a dramatic effect on a stock. If a large brokerage firm can make a prediction that is even one cent more accurate than that of its competitors, it stands to earn a lot of extra money.
Taking things one step farther, there are companies out there that do nothing but sell earnings estimates to institutional investors. Their job is to contact as many brokerage firms as possible and get quarterly earnings predictions from each firms analysts. The estimates that you see in the newspaper, online or on TV are usually compiled by these firms, and are often reported as an average, or what is called a consensus estimate. Often, when you read the consensus estimate you will see that the highest and lowest estimate values are also reported - this can give you a sense of the variance of analysts estimations. Large proportional differences between the high and low estimates generally indicate greater uncertainty about a given earnings report. (To read more about earnings estimates, see Earnings Guidance: The Good, The Bad And Good Riddance?)
The Whisper Number
Even after plenty of research, however, consensus earnings estimates often still arent that accurate. An explanation might be that there just arent that many analysts covering the entire market. Large caps often have dozens of analysts, but there are plenty of mid-caps and small-caps who dont have any analyst coverage! On top of that, as news of the earnings estimate spreads, the game then turns to trying to predict what the discrepancy will be between the actual earnings and the estimates. (To learn more, see What Mutual Fund Market Cap Suits Your Style?)
This is where the whisper number comes into play. While the consensus estimate tends to be widely available, whispers are the unofficial and unpublished earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. In the past, these came from professionals on Wall Street and were meant for the wealthy clients of top brokerages. However, post Sarbanes-Oxley, the definition of whisper numbers has changed. You see, with all the regulations on Wall Street, you wont find analysts providing favorite clients with insider earnings data - the risk of getting in trouble with the SEC is just too great. (To learn more about the SEC, read Policing The Securities Market: An Overview Of The SEC.)
While over the past few years it has become more difficult (if not impossible) to get whispers from insiders on the street, a new type of whisper has emerged in which the expectations of investors as a whole (based on shared information, fundamental research and past earnings performance) create a sense of what to expect from a company, which spreads much like insider information.
In other words, the whisper now is the expectation from individual investors. The whisper is still unofficial, if you consider the consensus estimate to be the official number, but the difference is that it comes from individuals, not from professionals. The source has also changed from your broker, to websites that put the whisper together.
The most obvious concerns here are manipulation of this consensus by investors who have a vested interest in promoting (or trashing) a stock.
Should You Follow the Whisper?
While the quality of the source of a whisper number is certainly important, whether or not you should take heed of a whisper mostly depends on what type of investor you are. For a long-term (buy-and-hold) investor, the price action around earnings season will, over time, be merely a small blip, making the whisper number a relatively trivial statistic.
However if you are a more active investor who is looking to profit from share price changes during earnings season, a whisper can be a much more valuable tool. Differences between actual earnings results and consensus estimates can have a significant effect on a stocks price. Whisper numbers can be useful when they differ (and of course, are more accurate) than the consensus forecast. For example, a lower whisper can provide a signal to get out of a stock you own before earnings come out. Also, whisper numbers certainly have a use when it comes to the large number of stocks that arent covered by any analysts. If you are analyzing a stock with little coverage, a whisper number at least provides some insight into the upcoming financials.
There certainly is an ethical issue with what we referred to as the older type of whisper number. Lets assume that there are analysts breaking federal laws and providing you (or a website) with non-public information. Do you really want to take the chance with illegal data? While all investors are continually looking for a leg-up on the competition, insider trading laws are serious business - just ask Martha Stewart. (To learn more, see Should Insider Trading Be Legal?)
Conclusion
Whisper numbers used to be the unpublished EPS forecasts circulating around Wall Street, now they are more likely to represent the collective expectations of individual investors. For more active investors, an accurate whisper number can be extremely valuable over the short term. The extent to which this is important to you depends on your investing style. While whisper numbers arent a guaranteed way to make money (nothing is), they are another tool that serious investors should consider.
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Get Organized With An Investment Analysis Form
When youre thumbing through annual reports, proxy statements and analyst ratings of multiple companies, the numbers can start to blur together. On top of that, once youve taken a look at all the financials a company has to offer, you can find yourself wondering what the significance is of the figures youve been looking at. Its information overload and its to be expected in any situation where fairly abstract ideas, like solvency ratios and assets per share, are thrown about in large quantities. In this article, well show you how to organize all the company information youve gathered into a readable and useful format.
Just sitting down with a bunch of financial statements isnt a very efficient or effective way of determining whether or not a company is a good investment decision. Youve got to organize your thoughts - otherwise youre just going to be spinning your wheels. Thats why creating your own investment analysis form can be one of the most valuable investment tools in your arsenal. An investment analysis form is a tool that you can use to help gather numbers and essential information needed to make an investment decision in one easy-to-use format.
Simplify Your Research
An investment analysis form is the perfect place to record key figures and pieces of information about your company as you find them in your research. This can be done on a customized form on a sheet of paper or on the computer through a spreadsheet program.
An investment analysis form allows you to better interpret your data systematically, as all of the information is collected into a standardized format. Because information is plugged in uniformly, youre guaranteed not to miss anything that you have deemed important.
An investment analysis form also allows an investor to simplify his or her research by only looking at information that is relevant to the investment decision , while throwing out any superfluous data. There are a lot of reasons why you might run into extraneous information in your research, but unless you make sure that its kept out of your investment criteria, its difficult to say whether or not unimportant information is influencing an important decision.
You can bet that investment professionals dont just go at a 10-K without a plan, and neither should you.
Collect Key Figures
Information Within the Form
The first step in developing your own investment analysis form is determining what you want to include in it. There are some figures that are essential and some that will be specific to your individual investing style.
Things like recent stock price, earnings per share (EPS), price/earnings ratio and total debt are pretty universal. Dont have an investment form that is missing an essential piece of financial information - anything that you would expect to see on the stock quote page of your favorite financial website should probably be included.
Numbers arent the only thing that belongs on the form. Youll definitely want places to write in things like products, addressed and unaddressed risk, legal troubles and the like. Your personal instincts and impressions after doing your research will be invaluable when you go back to looking at the stock a day or a year down the road, so make sure that you have a place to write them down. If you do a lot of investment research , its even easier to forget your impressions about a certain stock. Thats when having all those comments right at your fingertips is such a benefit. (Learn why it is helpful to keep a log of your instincts and actions, read Lessons From A Traders Diary.)
Now that youve got the essentials and the write-ins taken care of, dont forget the simple stuff. Have a place for the company name, the symbol and the date you did your research. Include things like state of incorporation, investor relations contact and a phone number for the main circuit board. While it may seem like a lot, it sure comes in handy when you need to reach someone to voice your concerns or just to get the latest financials from the company.
The process of creating an investment form is not a one-time deal, as you will likely make many changes over time as you hone your analysis skills.
Creating the Form
There are a couple of ways to set up your form. You can take a pen and paper and set up your spaces to write in information or, for the technically inclined, you can put it together on your computer using anything as simple as a word processor or as complex as professional page layout software.
If youd prefer to go paperless, using a spreadsheet program like Microsoft Excel can offer you quite a bit of flexibility. If you prefer to use the old-school paper method, take your form template to your closest copy center and go copy crazy. Make enough copies so that you wont have to worry about running out in the near future. That way, when they are finally ready for some analyzing, youll have all the blank copy forms youll need.
Analyze Your Investments
Once youre all set up with a form of your own, youll probably find that collecting your thoughts is a lot easier than it used to be. If you can interpret a stock quote online, you should have no problem interpreting the data youd want to include on your form. It just simplifies the process of investment analysis.
Where the idea of an investment analysis form really shines is when youre trying to scale across investments . Having information available to you in an organized way for multiple companies makes a comparison of two companies a much less impractical task and can help cement your understanding of what attributes make for an attractive investment. Just dont forget that an investment analysis form is just an aide. It wont tell you whether a particular stock is a smart investment, but it can help you organize your thoughts and data so that you can make that determination for yourself.
Conclusion
Scouring through piles of 10-Ks can be an unpleasant and confusing task, especially for a less experienced investor, but with the right tools for the job, making use of the information you collect can be all the easier. Creating your own investment analysis form can enable you to interpret the information you deem important in selecting an investment without losing your head in a sea of numbers.
Market Order – a market order does not have a set price and is therefore executed immediately at the current ‘market’ price. Markets, especially OTC markets, can be highly volatile and therefore the price of execution may differ dramatically from the price at time of order entry. Those who use market orders are more concerned about the speed of the execution as opposed to the price.
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Understanding The Income Statement
The income statement is one of the three financial statements - the other two are the balance sheet and cash flow statement - with which stock investors need to become familiar. The purpose of this article is to provide the less-experienced investor with an understanding of the components of the income statement in order to simplify investment analysis and make it easier to apply it to your own investment decisions.
In the context of corporate financial reporting, the income statement summarizes a companys revenues (sales) and expenses quarterly and annually for its fiscal year. The final net figure, as well as various others in this statement, are of major interest to the investment community. (To learn more about reading financial statements, see What You Need To Know About Financial Statements, Footnotes: Start Reading The Fine Print and Introduction To Fundamental Analysis.)
General Terminology and Format Clarifications
Income statements come with various monikers. The most commonly used are statement of income, statement of earnings, statement of operations and statement of operating results. Many professionals still use the term P
Due to the broad range of OTC companies, OTC Markets Group organizes these securities into tiered marketplaces to inform investors of opportunities and risks.
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10 Golf Tips To Help Investors Tee Off
Avid golfers appreciate the game of golf for its unhurried pace, the chance to enjoy the outdoors with clients during business hours and the addictive feeling of making a great shot.
There are actually a lot of similarities between the game of golf and investing. So, if you golf, youve already got a head start on understanding how to make your money grow. Read on to find out what the game of golf can teach you about investing.
1. Dont Let Your Mind Interfere With the Game
Golfers who let their emotions run wild will be on the fast track to having all balls in the rough, out of bounds or in the sand. In much the same way, investors cannot be ruled by their emotions. Fear, greed and overconfidence are powerful emotions that can lead an investor to make poor investment decisions.
For example, an exceptionally risk-averse investor might sell a position that has lost 10% of its value within a short period, only for it to recover shortly thereafter. Alternatively, an exceptionally confident investor might believe he can consistently beat the market - resulting in more trades, higher trading fees and lower overall gains.
2.Learn from the Masters
Avid golfers can learn a lot of tips from golf greats such as Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson, whose golf swings have been studied by both amateur and professional golfers. Similarly, novice and sophisticated investors can learn a lot from investing giants such as Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch and George Soros.
The strategies that these investors followed vary widely, and can allow you to gauge the type of investing strategy that is best suited for your risk tolerance and goals.
3. Be Wary of Friendly Advice
Stock tips from friends are similar to golf tips from friends - you may have no way of knowing whether your friends a duffer. The hot stock tip you hear that is sure to be a winner could land your net worth in the bunker if you dont perform further research into the validity of the claim.
4. Find a Good Caddy
Unlike the hobo caddy that Adam Sandlers character used in the 1996 movie Happy Gilmore, golf pros dont use just anyone to caddy for them during a big tournament. Good caddies have a strong knowledge of the golf game, and can advise the player on various strategies that might be useful for a particular hole. Caddies also have a strong understanding of the players personality and style, and have a goal to keep the players emotions in check.
In much the same way, a good financial advisor has exceptional knowledge of the stock market and investing, and will get to know their clients in order to understand what investment strategies are the best fit for their clients future goals.
5. Watch for Red Flags
When golfing, a red flag indicates the hole, but an overlooked red flag in investing could put your investments in the hole. Before you invest your hard-earned money, be sure you read the prospectus.
6. Play the Percentages
In golf, making a conservative play and laying up in front of water is usually the best choice rather than trying to hit a hole-in-one. In the same way, buying penny stocks in order to land a tenbagger is not usually the best choice.
In essence, play the percentages. Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and General Electric (NYSE:GE) were once-in-a-lifetime tenbaggers at one point, and you have a limited probability of landing a penny stock whose value increases 10 times in a short period. Furthermore, penny stocks are highly speculative due to their small market capitalization, and limited disclosure.
7. There Are No Mulligans
Unlike that second shot your partner might let you take during a friendly round of golf, there really are no mulligans allowed in professional golf games, or in the world of finance.
Take your time before you make an investment; there is no second chance if you make a poor investment decision. If youre unsure, seek the advice of a financial planner or advisor who can help you devise an investment strategy that is best suited for your situation.
8. Practice, Practice, Practice
Pro golfers such as Tiger Woods and Angel Cabrera didnt get to the Masters without a lot of practice and training - and as professional athletes, they never stop trying to improve.
Just as the driving range and countless hours on the golf course have helped the pros hone their skills, you can do the same by practicing your investing strategy with a simulated stock market game. (If you are ready to invest $100,000 risk-free, visit the Investopedia Simulator.)
9. One Good (Or Bad) Game Doesnt Indicate Future Success
One round of golf is not going to be an indicator of your overall performance at golf. If you have one bad game, it does not mean youre a terrible golfer. Your progress over a number of years playing golf is a much better indicator of success.
A quote from Peter Lynchs book One Up on Wall Street (1989) about his experience with Subaru demonstrates this: If Id bothered to ask myself, How can this stock go any higher? I would have never bought Subaru after it already went up twentyfold. But I checked the fundamentals, realized that Subaru was still cheap, bought the stock, and made sevenfold after that.
The point is to base a decision on future potential, rather than on what has already happened in the past.
10. Fancy Equipment Doesnt Guarantee Success
Just because you decide to splurge on a custom set of clubs does not mean youll be winning tournaments and rubbing shoulders with the pros at the Masters. Nor does it increase your likelihood of landing a hole-in-one.
In the same vein, purchasing expensive trading software does not mean you will find winning investments every time. There really is no foolproof way to pick investments. Fundamental and technical analysis might glean the probability of where an investment is headed (just as that custom driver might give you a longer drive), but in essence, price movements are largely unpredictable – especially for equities. (Learn more about choosing investments in our Stock-Picking Strategies tutorial.)
Conclusion
So, the next time youre about to tee off, it might be a good time to take a step back and consider how much you already know about investing through the game of golf. With that in mind, the task of getting your investments in order might not be as daunting as you originally thought.
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Complaints regarding companies should be directed to the SEC, while complaints regarding broker-dealers or other investment professionals should be directed to FINRA. More information about specific OTC regulations is covered in Part 3 – Regulation.
5 Popular Portfolio Types
Stock investors constantly hear the wisdom of diversification. The concept is to simply not put all of your eggs in one basket, which in turn helps mitigate risk, and generally leads to better performance or return on investment. Diversifying your hard-earned dollars does make sense, but there are different ways of diversifying, and different portflio types. We look at the following portfolio types and suggest how to get started building them: aggressive, defensive, income, speculative and hybrid. It is important to understand that building a portfolio will require research and some effort. Having said that, lets have a peek across our five portfolios to gain a better understanding of each and get you started.
The Aggressive Portfolio
An aggressive portfolio or basket of stocks includes those stocks with high risk/high reward proposition. Stocks in the category typically have a high beta, or sensitivity to the overall market. Higher beta stocks experience larger fluctuations relative to the overall market on a consistent basis. If your individual stock has a beta of 2.0, it will typically move twice as much in either direction to the overall market - hence, the high-risk, high-reward description.
Most aggressive stocks (and therefore companies) are in the early stages of growth, and have a unique value proposition. Building an aggressive portfolio requires an investor who is willing to seek out such companies, because most of these names, with a few exceptions, are not going to be common household companies. Look online for companies with earnings growth that is rapidly accelerating, and have not been discovered by Wall Street. The most common sectors to scrutinize would be technology, but many other firms in various sectors that are pursuing an aggressive growth strategy can be considered. As you might have gathered, risk management becomes very important when building and maintaining an aggressive portfolio. Keeping losses to a minimum and taking profit are keys to success in this type of portfolio.
The Defensive Portfolio
Defensive stocks do not usually carry a high beta, and usually are fairly isolated from broad market movements. Cyclical stocks, on the other hand, are those that are most sensitive to the underlying economic business cycle. For example, during recessionary times, companies that make the basics tend to do better than those that are focused on fads or luxuries. Despite how bad the economy is, companies that make products essential to everyday life will survive. Think of the essentials in your everyday life, and then find the companies that make these consumer staple products.
The opportunity of buying cyclical stocks is that they offer an extra level of protection against detrimental events. Just listen to the business stations and you will hear portfolios managers talking about drugs, defense and tobacco. These really are just baskets of stocks that these managers are recommending based upon where the business cycle is and where they think it is going. However, the products and services of these companies are in constant demand. A defensive portfolio is prudent for most investors. A lot of these companies offer a dividend as well which helps minimize downside capital losses. (Find out how these securities can protect you from a market bust.
The Income Portfolio
An income portfolio focuses on making money through dividends or other types of distributions to stakeholders. These companies are somewhat like the safe defensive stocks but should offer higher yields. An income portfolio should generate positive cash flow. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) and master limited partnerships (MLP) are excellent sources of income producing investments. These companies return a great majority of their profits back to shareholders in exchange for favorable tax status. REITs are an easy way to invest in real estate without the hassles of owning real property: vacancy issues, repairs and the other types of issues a landlord faces when trying to rent property. Keep in mind, however, that these stocks are also subject to the economic climate. REITs are groups of stocks that take a beating during an economic downturn, as building and buying activity dries up.
An Income portfolio is a nice complement to most peoples paycheck or other retirement income. Investors should be on the lookout for stocks that have fallen out of favor and have still maintained a high dividend policy. These are the companies that can not only supplement income but also provide capital gains. Utilities and other slow growth industries are an ideal place to start your search. (Find out how this first love still holds its bloom as it ages. To learn more, read Dividends Still Look Good After All These Years.)
The Speculative Portfolio
A speculative portfolio is the closest to a pure gamble. A speculative portfolio presents more risk than any others discussed here. Finance gurus suggest that a maximum of 10% of ones investable assets be used to fund a speculative portfolio. Speculative plays could be initial public offerings (IPOs) or stocks that are rumored to be takeover targets. Technology or healthcare firms that are in the process of researching a breakthrough product, or a junior oil company which is about to release its initial production results, would fall into this category.
Another classic speculative play is to make an investment decision based upon a rumor that the company is subject to a takeover. One could argue that the widespread popularity of leveraged ETFs in todays markets represent speculation. Again, these types of investments are alluring: picking the right one could lead to huge profits in a short amount of time. Speculation may be the one portfolio that, if done correctly, requires the most homework. Speculative stocks are typically trades, and not your classic buy and hold investment.
The Hybrid Portfolio
Building a hybrid type of portfolio means venturing into other investments, such as bonds, commodities, real estate and even art. Basically, there is a lot of flexibility in the hybrid portfolio approach. Traditionally, this type of portfolio would contain blue chip stocks and some high grade government or corporate bonds. REITs and MLPs may also be an investable theme for the balanced portfolio. A common fixed income investment strategy approach advocates buying bonds with various maturity dates, and is essentially a diversification approach within the bond asset class itself. Basically, a hybrid portfolio would include a mix of stocks and bonds in a relatively fixed allocation proportions. This type of approach offers diversification benefits across multiple asset classes as equities and fixed income securities tend to have a negative correlation with one another.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, investors should consider ALL of these portfolios and decide on the right allocation across all five. Here, we have laid the foundation by defining five of the more common types of portfolios. Building an investment portfolio does require more effort than a passive, index investing approach. By going it alone, you will be required to monitor your portfolio(s) and rebalance more frequently, thus racking up commission fees. Too much or too little exposure to any portfolio type introduces additional risks. Despite the extra required effort, defining and building a portfolio will increase your investing confidence, and give you control over your finances.
In an ideal world, market makers want to buy at the bid price and sell at the ask price. This scenario allows them to have very little risk and make “the spread” on each share transacted. Unfortunately for market makers, this scenario is not extremely common due to price volatility – movements in the price of a security.
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An Introduction To Shareholder Activism
Share and Share Alike
The power of followership cannot be overrated. A hackneyed phrase, strength in numbers can and has been used to desired effect by shareholders for their benefit. The shareholders themselves can also be large institutions, such as public employee retirement systems. The recent results for say-on-pay at various annual general meetings are but one example. Management misdeeds and corporate fraud in the early and late 2000s led to the passage of Sarbanes-Oxley (2002) and Dodd-Frank (2010) legislation that has empowered shareholders to some degree. Here is an overview of the mechanics of shareholder voting and its true motivation.
SEE: Proxy Voting Gives Fund Shareholders A Say
Activists Toolkit
Shareholder activism is expressed through the proxy statement. More than mere ballots describing a particular issue to a shareowner requesting him or her to take action, proxy statements are assets as the decisions that they ask stockholders to make impact the value of their company. Voting on these matters is akin to taking a decision on a referendum at the ballot box on the merits (or lack thereof) of a political candidate. Investors need to do their homework, rather than merely rubberstamping managements recommendations. Once they have done so, they have the choice of completing the card accompanying the proxy statement and mailing it in or attending the annual general meeting to vote the shares in person. The latter option may be preferable if issues to be discussed are particularly important.
In this way, the shareholder is able to ask questions, the answers to which may inform his ultimate decision. While management often files the proxy statement, outside parties may do so as well. The latters interest may differ from management. Investors should note that whereas public companies are required to file an annual proxy statement, investment companies, by contrast, only do so when a specific issue needs to be put before the shareholders.
SEE: Knowing Your Rights As A Shareholder
Requisite disclosures are part of every proxy statement, varying by the issue at hand:
• Types of voting shares must be disclosed and the control accorded to each share class, along with disclosure of ownership by management and individuals with greater than 5% of outstanding shares.
• The independent public accountant must be disclosed, fees paid for audit services, and records kept of any disputes and whether firm representatives will attend the AGM. The investor should look for any sign that independence and objectivity on the part of the auditor is somehow compromised.
A summary of typical proxy proposals and their required disclosures:
Issue Required Disclosure
Election of Company Directors Names, ages, tenure, role(s) in the company, business relationships with the company, meetings that the board held in the past twelve months.
Remuneration A clear description of who gets paid what for their respective roles (e.g.(non) employee directors)
Executive Compensation Plan features, eligible persons, funding links to service (e.g defined benefit plan), prices, expiry dates, strike prices of warrants, rights or options, which do (not) require shareholder approval, tax consequences to the company/recipient.
Capital Structure Title, amount of securities to be issued or modified, fee for the transaction and anticipated use of funds; financial statements with managements discussion of financial condition.
Corporate Actions (mergers, acquisitions, spinoffs, etc.) Transaction details, financials of acquirer and acquired companies, discussion of effects of the corporate action, financials.
Property Acquisition or Disposition Type and location, fee paid or received, including basis therefore, name and address of seller or buyer.
Restatement of Financial Accounts The type of restatement and when effective, rationale for restatement and date anticipated resultant effect on company accounts.
Investment Advisory and Fee Changes A table with current and anticipated fees (e.g advisory, transfer, custody)
Distribution Fee Changes The 12b-1 fee rate, to whom the fee may be paid and the payment amounts to those affiliated with the fund or advisor.
Investments Permitted/Strategy A clear description of the change in permissible investments or strategy.
Investors should look for potential conflicts of interest. Are the interests of management sufficiently aligned with those of shareholders?
Shareholder activism is an outgrowth of corporate governance. Company directors are supposed to mind the store. If they do not, it is the responsibility of shareholders to step forward, weigh the merits of proposals and vote accordingly.
SEE: Putting Management Under The Microscope
In Whose Interest?
Traditionally a tool for exacting changes in the public company to benefit shareholders, shareholder activism is not without its critics who contend that certain interest groups stand behind the aegis of corporate democracy to advance (an) agenda(s) that might not necessarily benefit the shareholder, such as the pursuit of public policy initiatives and legislative or regulatory agendas. Socially responsible investment funds (SRI) may have a reform-minded, rather than profit-maximizing goal (e.g. environmental issues, human rights, practices that accord with religious beliefs, such as Christian values and Islamic finance).
The number of shareholder proposals is a function of a companys industry. Energy and mineral companies with the ability to harm the environment would, ceteris paribus, come in for greater criticism than technology groups. At issue in the maelstrom of shareholder activism is whether certain proposals advanced properly fall within the remit of a shareholder vote. Might they not be better resolved at the ballot box? A practice referred to as interest-group capture uses the share vote where the legislation might be a preferable alternative. Some examples of this are proposals on corporate political spending and the Taft-Hartley plans share votes to obtain concessions from management.
The Bottom Line
When evaluating any proposal, the investor needs to ask the right questions. What does the proposal ask him or her to evaluate, who is putting forth the proposal and, ultimately, whom does it serve? The answers to these questions will determine who truly benefits from such proposals.
Under the Securities Act of 1933, a company that offers or sells its securities must register the securities with the SEC or find an exemption from the registration requirements. The Act provides companies with a number of exemptions. For some of the exemptions, such as rules 505 and 506 of Regulation D, a company may sell its securities to what are known as "accredited investors."
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How To Be A Stock Trader In 2012
If one of your New Years resolutions is to take control of your finances and put some of your savings to work, you might be considering using the stock market to do that. 2011 proved to be a tough year for even the bestinstitutional investor and individual traders had an equally tough time navigating markets that saw a large amount of violent swings, both to the upside and the downside.
If youre planning to enter the markets as a new trader this year, here are a few tips to consider as you put your money to work. (For related reading, see 4 Common Active Trading Strategies.)
Dont Trade for Real … Yet
Before you put your hard-earned money to work, spend some time trading fake money. Many brokerages and sites like Yahoo! Finance offer virtual or paper trading accounts that allow you to get a hands-on feel for how the markets work. Just like any new skill, you probably wont do very well with your first attempts. Use virtual funds to see if your investing decisions could potentially earn you money. Once you see that youre having success, put a small amount of real money to work. Continue to use your virtual account to test new strategies. Even the pros use virtual accounts to test the waters. (Use the Investopedia Stock Simulator to trade a virtual account, risk free!)
Learn How to Research
Its easy to make the mistake of relying on somebody elses research for investing decisions. There are two problems with this. First, somebody elses risk tolerance, investment objective and account size arent the same as yours. The trade may be right for them, but not for you. Second, they may tell you when to get into the trade but they likely wont tell you when to get out.
There are plenty of good resources that teach you how to research before you buy. Read books, talk to other traders and read company balance sheets, listen to conference calls and work to gain a real understanding of the markets. You can learn to excel at any endeavor through experience and study. Becoming a great money manager requires the same commitment. (To learn more, see Investing Books It Pays To Read.)
Say No to the Seminars
Every big city has an endless supply of weekend-long thousand dollar or more seminars that guarantee to make you the next great trader. Dont be fooled. They may have some good information, but if becoming a high-performing, profitable trader could happen over a weekend, everybody would do it. There are better ways to spend your money.
Dont Try to Win
Weve learned that in order to get ahead in this world, we have to be better than our competition. That isnt true in investing. If youre new to the markets, you arent going to beat the professionals. Even the professionals dont always beat other professionals. There are an exceedingly small amount of professional investors who have a consistent track record of beating others in the market. Aim to invest your money in products that tend to perform in line or slightly better than the market. Later, as you gain more investing experience, you can try your hand at some of the riskier trades.(For more information, read Measuring And Managing Investment Risk.)
Dont Make Money, Manage Risk
The professionals know that if you manage risk correctly, making money will naturally follow. Having a portfolio that includes a good supply of companies with a track record of success and that pay a healthy dividend, is good risk management. Only investing in products you truly understand, without looking to get rich quick, is the mark of a mature investor. You arent going to strike it rich by capturing short-term gains, so dont take the unnecessary risk of trying.
The Bottom Line
2012 promises to be another year of tough-to-navigate markets for even the best traders. Dont try to score the big win. Instead, use 2012 to be conservative with your money as you learn the complicated art of trading stocks.
Once broker-dealers have created or updated their quote, they may continue to monitor the market; if prices change (to satisfy the limit price) they may send a trade message to another broker-dealer. They may also receive an OTC Link trade message against their standing quote or for a different price/size.
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Are Investing Seminars Worth It?
As the old saying goes, free advice is worth every penny you pay for it. Contrary to this ancient witticism, in some cases this advice could be very valuable. It depends on the source of the advice and what the adviser wants from those being advised. TUTORIAL: Investing 101 In the wake of the recent financial crisis, a virtual deluge of investment advice, packaged as investment seminars, has been offered free to the public in mailed letters, brochures and flyers, and in other forms of advertising and promotions. The recipient of these marketing messages justifiably wonders: Which among the many seminars offered would be beneficial? Heres how to answer that question.
Investment seminars may be broadly classified in two varieties:
•The seminar with something for sale.
•The seminar with no specific investment for sale.
The most common seminar is the first variety. These something-specific-for-sale seminars are offered by an individual, company, or institution such as a bank, insurance company or brokerage firm. While they do offer investment information, the seminars are designed principally to sell products and or services to the attendees. For every sale made, the seller receives a commission. So keep in mind that while these seminars impart information, they are also sales pitches. (For related reading, see The Sales Commission Dilemma.)
Most Frequently Sold Products/Services
Annuities, sold by financial planners and advisers, insurance companies, banks and brokers. Annuities generally provide the buyer with a lifetime return (with certain exceptions, spelled out in the contract) on a lump sum investment. Bonds of many kinds (i.e. debt, meaning contractual obligations to pay a certain rate of interest on a principal amount over a specified period of time). Stocks and balanced portfolios of stocks. Many seminars will offer a free portfolio analysis - meaning theyll look at all your investments and advise you on what to sell and what to buy for better returns, with relative safety and perhaps a small percentage allocated to a higher-risk, higher-return investment on your investments. As usual, the adviser-seller receives a commission on all sales. (For related reading, see What Is A Registered Investment Advisor?)
Specific targeted investment advice for retirement, for accumulating enough money for a college education for children or grandchildren, and for setting up trusts, among other investments and investment services offered. Brokers and brokerage firms often conduct seminars on trading stocks, stock options, commodities, and foreign currency. These can be high risk speculations for inexperienced investors and special caution is advised before trading in these often volatile markets.
Finally, seminars which offer information about esoteric investments which may yield high returns, should be regarded with a prudent skepticism. Sales pitches may hype certainemerging markets, foreign bonds, private equity firms, copper mines in Africa, derivatives of various types, and similar investment vehicles, suggesting that in best-case scenarios, the returns will be high. These may turn out to be successful investments, but pending regulatory oversight, certified audits and more transparency about the investment, investors are urged to be wary. (For more on emerging markets, see What Is An Emerging Market Economy.)
No Specific-Investments For Sale Seminars
Seminars which offer nothing for sale and are strictly informational or educational may provide the most benefits to attendees. Because nothing is for sale, the information provided is not skewed toward the usual biases which favor certain investments over others of roughly equal returns and safety.
Often, these seminars are given by independent financial advisers, or by authors of books on investments, media columnists or commentators, newsletter publishers, Website writers and other speakers with no specific investment to sell. But the financial advisers want to sell their expert advice, and may invite seminar attendees to make an appointment for a personal one-on-one consultation to discuss their investment goals and how to achieve them. Most likely at that meeting the adviser will try to sell fee-based and or performance-based services.
The writers and publishers who conduct investment seminars will probably try to sell their books, newsletters, Web subscriptions and other forms of information to the attendees.
Heres What to Do and Not to Do at Both Types of Seminars:
If you dont understand something, ask questions. If its too complicated, ask to see it in writing. If you still dont understand the investment and how it works, steer clear. Ask to see the credentials of anyone purporting to be a certified financial planner. Ask for references. Maintain a high level of skepticism, especially when no-risk, high-return investments are touted. Keep in mind, the higher the projected return, the higher the risk, and in some cases, you can lose all the money you invest. Get a second opinion from an outside, disinterested source if youre considering an investment. Dont be rushed into buying something on the spot because the sales person says the markets are moving quickly and if you dont buy now youll miss the profits.
If you do invest, experts say dont allocate more than 4% of your total portfolio to any one investment. That way, if the investment produces a loss, you wont be hurt too badly. (Learn how to weed out those who are just out to make a quick buck. For more, see Find The Right Financial Advisor.)
The Bottom Line
Investment seminars can be worth your time, but keep in mind that theres usually something for sale at most of them. Nevertheless, like your daily newspaper or favorite magazines or informational website, along with the advertisements of goods and services for sale, theres plenty of useful information and newsworthy stories. The same holds true for most investment seminars.
With the exception of some foreign issuers, the companies quoted on OTC Link tend to be closely held, very small and/or thinly traded. Most issuers do not meet the minimum listing requirements for trading on a national securities exchange. Many of these companies do not file periodic reports or audited financial statements with the SEC, making it difficult for the public to find current, reliable information about those companies.
Choosing A Compatible Broker
Did you hear about Chanko Wireless?
Yeah, I got in at $25.10.
Well I got in at $25.05!
How did you get a better price than I did?
For those of you who dont remember this dialog, it is a snippet from an old Ameritrade (a brokerage) commercial. In the ad, two men bicker because one got into a wireless company for a nickel less than the other. Do you care about a nickel? If you are like the majority of investors, you probably dont. Still, this commercial raises a good point: one of the most important investment decisions you have to make has nothing to do with choosing stocks , bonds or mutual funds. Its about choosing the right broker for your individual needs. Here we look at what to consider.
How Does Choosing a Broker Relate to the Nickel?
First off, we should make it clear that we are not making any comment about Ameritrade. The nickel is important to many investors (primarily traders), but it amounts to only a few dollars if you are buying less than 100 shares. If you arent an active trader, a nickel wont even show up on the chart over the long term. So, worrying about the nickel when choosing a broker matters only for particular types of investors.
Its easy to see, then, that although there may be many good brokerages out there, not all of them are geared to the way you invest. Different investor personalities affect broker selection. The task of making your selection may seem overwhelming at first, but with a little study and some basic guidelines, youll be able to make an informed decision suited to your investing personality and end up with a broker that is right for you.
The Importance of Your Investing Personality
Your investing style is one of the biggest factors to consider when selecting an online broker. To determine your style, you must define your needs. Here are some questions to help you do this:
• Do you need personal advice, or can you do your own homework with research reports?
• How long do you typically hold an investment?
• What is the size of trades you typically make?
• How important is it to have direct access to a real person?
• Is fast and efficient order execution absolutely necessary?
There are four main types of investor personalities. Try to determine what personality you resemble most and ask yourself if your broker is providing the services that match your personality.
Individual Investors
Those classified under this category are also known as retail investors. They dont require any special assistance or advisory services. Individual investors empower themselves by doing their own research, selecting their own stocks and knowing how to place online orders efficiently. The main priorities for the independent investor are fast, consistent trade executions and low commission levels.
The fruit of such priorities and labor is the opportunity to take advantage of the lowest commission rates around. Several brokers like E*Trade and Ameritrade - known as discount brokers - have chosen to target independent investors because this clientele makes up such a large and diverse market.
Reliant Investors
These investors need some hand holding and assistance when selecting a prospective investment. Typically, they require a broker capable of offering individualized advice and assistance. This is especially true for new investors, who may need all the help they can get when starting out.
As you can imagine, extra services equal higher commissions, and as more and more investors become self-sufficient, brokers serving this market segment become fewer and fewer. The ones that do stay around are generally larger companies, such as Charles Schwab and Fidelity. Known as full-service brokers, they provide many of the services necessary for successful investing: that is, not only picking stock, but also tax planning, asset allocation and long-term planning . Additionally, if you are a new investor with a fairly large amount of money, but you arent comfortable investing on your own, you may consider a wrap account. This type of account charges one flat fee, usually quarterly, which covers all administrative, commission and management expenses. The drawback is that wrap accounts usually require minimum investments of between $50,000 and $100,000. (For more on the wrap, see Wrap It Up: The Vocabulary and Benefits of Managed Money.)
Short-Term Investors (Traders)
Short-term traders are not the same as day traders. Depending on the type of security, a short-term position can range from an hour to a few months. For the most part, short-term trading is a practice used primarily by the top financial players. These are the professionals who have devoted time to understanding all aspects of trading and investment and are often trading what are called momentum stocks or momo plays. Traders require access to superior research information, excellent execution skills and most likely the ability to trade in other types of securities, such as derivatives.
With such experience and knowledge, short-term traders require next to no assistance from a broker. Because these investors are attempting to profit from the relatively short-term movements in a securitys price, they are more concerned about getting the best possible fill price than a longer-term investor, but not as concerned as a day trader, as we explain below. Discount online brokers supply the fast order execution, the low commissions and the trading tools that are the biggest concerns of the short-term investor.
Day Traders
These are experienced stock traders who hold positions for a very short time (from minutes to hours) and make numerous trades each day - most trades are entered and closed out intraday.
As a result, day traders value order fulfillment speed and trade execution. So, for them, selecting the right broker is crucial. Day traders are probably the only investors who should worry about whether their broker will help them secure the nickel. Because day traders are self-sufficient and place many trades daily, they can demand exceptionally low commissions - usually no more than a couple of bucks a trade - and top-notch order fulfillment. Because the day trader needs to monitor stock prices constantly, live price quotations are essential to his or her success. The fancy tools for this come at a price, however, as commissions at brokerages with loads of tools will be higher than those at brokerages offering fewer tools. Like short-term investors/traders, day traders basically use online discount brokers to facilitate their trading. Again, speed of order execution, low cost and good tools are important to these types of investors not requiring advice from their broker.
Every successful investor needs to have the right tools for the trade. This begins with choosing the right broker. No broker is perfect for everybody, and a firm that doesnt meet your style isnt necessarily a low-quality company; it may just offer services that dont fit your investment personality. Whether youre concerned about that nickel or your retirement plan, there is a broker out there that is right for you.
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OTC market structure is very similar to other equity security markets. A key difference, however, is in the actual trading process, which will be explained in Part 2 – Trading.
What Are The Odds Of Scoring A Winning Trade?
When many of us think of probabilities, the first thing that comes to mind is a coin toss - having a 50% chance at being right on a given toss. Can something as simple as a coin toss be applied to the market effectively? It can at least provide us with some tools for approaching the markets, and it can be applied in many more ways than one might expect. A traders current views of probability could be completely wrong, and could very well be why they are not making money in the markets. This article is an introduction to the probabilities of trading and to a commonly overlooked but integral part of the financial system - statistics. But dont be scared off by the word statistics; everything will be explained in plain English and without many numbers or formulas.
Understanding the Coin Toss
In the short term, anything can happen; this is why the coin toss is an appropriate analogy for the stock market . Lets assume that at a given moment in time the stock could just as easily move up as it could move down (even in a range, stocks move up and down), thus our probability of making a profit (whether short or long) on a position is 50%.
While hopefully no one would make completely random short-term trades, we will start with this scenario. If we a have an equal probability of making a quick profit (like a coin toss), does a run of profits or losses signal what future outcomes will be? No! Not on random trades. This is a common misconception. Each event still has a 50% probability, no matter what outcomes came prior.
Runs do happen in random 50/50 events. A run refers to a number of identical outcomes that occur in a row. Here is a table displaying the probabilities of such a run; in other words, the odds of flipping a given number of heads or tails in a row.
Run Length
Chance
1
50%
2
25%
3
12.5%
4
6.25%
5
3.125%
6
1.5625%
Here is where we run into problems. Lets say we have just made five profitable trades in a row. According to our table, which is giving us the probability of being right (or wrong) five times in a row based on a 50% chance, we have already overcome some serious odds. The odds of getting the sixth profitable trade looks extremely remote, but actually that is not the case. Our odds of success are still 50%! People lose thousands of dollars in the markets (and in casinos) by failing to realize this. The reason is that the odds from our table are based on uncertain future events and the likelihood they will occur. Once we have completed a run of five successful trades, those trades are no longer uncertain. Our next trade starts a new potential run, and after the results are in for each trade, we start back at the top the table, every time. This means every trade has a 50% of working out. (Learn how to illustrate an asset returns sensitivity read Find The Right Fit With Probability Distributions.)
The reason this is so important is that often, when traders get into the market, they mistake a string of profits or losses as either skill or lack of skill. This is simply not true. Whether a short-term trader makes multiple trades or an investor makes only a few trades a year, we need to analyze the outcomes of their trades in a different way to understand if they are simply lucky or if there is actual skill involved. Statistics apply on all time lines, and this is what we must remember.
Long-Term Results
The above example gave a short-term trade example based on a 50% chance of being right or wrong. But does this apply to the long term? Very much so. The reason is that even though a trader may only take long-term positions, he or she will be doing fewer trades and thus it will take longer to attain data from enough trades to see if simple luck is involved or if it was skill. A short-term trader may make 30 trades a week and show a profit every month for two years. Has this trader overcome the odds with real skill? It would seem so, as the odds of having a run of 24 profitable months is extremely rare unless the odds have shifted more in his favor somehow. (Find out if mutual fund managers can successfully pick stocks or if youre better off with an index fund. Read Is Stock Picking A Myth?)
Now what about a long-term investor who has made three trades over the last two years and has been profitable. Is this trader exhibiting skill? Not necessarily. Currently, this trader has a run of three going, and that is not difficult to accomplish even from totally random results. The lesson here is that skill is not just reflected in the short term (whether that is one day or one year, it will differ by trading strategy ), but will also be reflected in the long term. We need enough trade data to accurately determine whether a strategy is significant enough to overcome random probabilities. And even with this, we face another challenge: while each trade is an event, so is a month and year in which trades were placed.
A trader who placed 30 trades a week has overcome the daily odds and the monthly odds for a good number of periods. Ideally, proving the strategy over a few more years would erase all doubt that there was luck involved due to a certain market condition . For our long-term trader making trades that last more than a year, it will take at least several more years to prove that his strategy is profitable over this longer time frame and in all market conditions.
When we consider all time frames and all market conditions, we actually begin to see how to be profitable on all time frames and how to move the odds more in our, attaining greater than a random 50% chance of being right. It is worth noting that if profits are larger than losses, a trader can be right less than 50% of the time and still make a profit. (This phenomenon can cause a trader to abandon a proven strategy or risk everything on chance. Find out how to avoid it, check out Random Reinforcement: Why Most Traders Fail.)
How Profitable Traders Make Money
So, obviously people do make money in the markets, and its not just because they have had a good run. So how do we get the odds in our favor? The profitable results come from two concepts. The first concept is based on what was discussed above - being profitable in all time frames or at least winning more in certain periods than is lost in others.
The second concept is the fact that trends exist in the markets, and this no longer makes the markets a 50/50 gamble, as in our coin toss example. Stock prices tend to run in a certain direction over periods of time, and have done this repeatedly over market history. For those of you who understand statistics, this proves that runs (trends) in stocks occur and thus we end up with a probability curve that is not normal (remember that bell curve your teachers always talked about) but is skewed and commonly referred to as a curve with a fat tail. This means that traders can be profitable on a consistent basis if they use trends, even if it is on an extremely short time frame.
Bringing It All Together
If trends exist and thus we can no longer have a random sampling of data (trades) because there is a bias in those trades that will likely reflect a trend, why is the 50% chance example above useful? The reason is that the lessons are still very valid. A trader should not increase his or her position size or take on more risk (relative to position size) simply because of a string of wins, which should not be assumed to occur as a result of skill. It also means that a trader should not decrease position size after having a long profitable run. (Find out if taking the path less traveled will work in your favor - or against it, see Trading Systems: Run With The Herd Or Be A Lone Wolf?)
This information should be good news. New traders can take solace in the fact their researched trading system may not be faulty but rather is experiencing a random run of bad results (or it may still need some refining). It also should put pressure on those who have been profitable to continually monitor their strategies so they remain profitable.
This information can also aid investors when they are analyzing mutual funds or hedge funds. Trading results are often published showing spectacular returns; knowing a little more about statistics can help us gauge whether those returns are likely to continue or if the returns just happened to be a random event. (From picking the right type of stock to setting stop-losses, learn how to trade wisely
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The OTCQX tier includes both multinational companies seeking access to U.S. investors and domestic growth companies.[12] To be traded on this tier, companies undergo a qualitative review by OTC Markets Group.[13] Companies are not required to be registered with or reporting to the SEC, but must post financial information with OTC Markets Group.
APR and APY: Why Your Bank Hopes You Cant Tell The Difference
It is often purported that Albert Einstein referred to compound interest as the greatest force on earth. Strong words from one of the smartest men to ever live. Although this articles intention is not to ponder Einsteins most compelling views, we do intend to demonstrate the importance of understanding the difference between annual percentage rate (APR) and annual percentage yield (APY). For most people, these terms are applied to loans and investment products, but they are not created equal and they significantly affect how much you earn or must pay in these transactions.
What Is Compounding?
At its most basic, compounding refers to earning interest on previous interest. All investors want to maximize compounding on their investments , while at the same time minimize it on their loans. (For more detail on this subject, see Investing 101: The Phenomenal Concept Of Compounding.)
Compounding is especially important in our APR vs. APY discussion because many financial institutions have a sneaky way of quoting interest rates that use compounding principles to their advantage. Being financially literate in this area will help you spot which interest rate you are really getting.
Defining APR and APY
APR is the annual rate of interest without taking into account the compounding of interest within that year. Alternatively, APY does take into account the effects of intra-year compounding. This seemingly subtle difference can have important implications for investors and borrowers. Here is a look at the formulas for each method:
For example, a credit card company might charge 1% interest each month; therefore, the APR would equal 12% (1% x 12 months = 12%). This differs from APY, which takes into account compound interest. The APY for a 1% rate of interest compounded monthly would be 12.68% [(1 0.01)^12 – 1= 12.68%] a year. If you only carry a balance on your credit card for one months period you will be charged the equivalent yearly rate of 12%. However, if you carry that balance for the year, your effective interest rate becomes 12.68% as a result of compounding each month.
The Borrowers Perspective
As a borrower, you are always searching for the lowest possible rate. When looking at the difference between APR and APY, you need to be worried about how a loan might be disguised as having a lower rate .
For example, when looking for a mortgage you are likely to choose a lender that offers the lowest rate. Although the quoted rates appear low, you could end up paying more for a loan than you originally anticipated.
This is because banks will often quote you the annual percentage rate (APR). As we learned earlier, this figure does not take into account any intra-year compounding either semi-annual (every six months), quarterly (every three months), or monthly (12 times per year) compounding of the loan. The APR is simply the periodic rate of interest multiplied by the number of periods in the year. This may be a little confusing at first, so lets look at an example to solidify the concept:
As you can see, even though a bank may have quoted you a rate of 5%, 7%, or 9% depending on the frequency of compounding (this may differ depending on the bank, state, country, etc), you could actually pay a much higher rate. In the case of a bank quoting an APR of 9%, this does not consider the effects of compounding. However, if you were to consider the effects of monthly compounding, as APY does, you will pay 0.38% more on your loan each year - a significant amount when you are amortizing your loan over a 25- or 30-year period.
This example should illustrate the importance of asking your potential lender what rate he or she is quoting when seeking a loan. It is also important when comparing borrowing prospects to compare apples to apples so to speak (comparing the same figures), so that you can make the most informed decision.
The Lenders Perspective
Now as you may have already guessed, it is not hard to see how standing on the other side of the lending tree can affect your results in an equally significant fashion, and how banks and other institutions will often entice individuals by quoting APY. Just as individuals who are seeking loans want to pay the lowest possible rate of interest, the same individual wants to receive the highest rate of interest when they themselves are the lender.
For example, suppose that you are shopping around for a bank to open a savings account with; obviously, you are seeking the highest rate of interest. It is in the banks best interest to quote you the APY, as opposed to the APR. They want to quote the highest possible rate they can to entice you with to their bank. They are much less likely to quote you the APR because this rate is lower than the APY given that there is some compounding during the year.
Again, it is important for the individual to acknowledge the distinction between these two rates, because they can significantly affect that amount of interest that can be accumulated in a savings account.
It should be noted that different countries have different rules and regulations in place to combat some of the unscrupulous activity surrounding quoting rates that has arisen in the past; however, there is no better insulator against these ruses than knowledge.
Summary
Whether you are shopping for a loan or seeking the highest rate of return on a savings account, be mindful of the different rates that a bank or institution quotes. Depending on which side of the lending tree you stand on, banks and institutions have different motives for quoting different rates. Always ensure you understand which rates they are quoting and then compare the equivalent rates between alternatives.
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