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Understanding Stock Splits
Say you had a $100 bill and someone offered you two $50 bills for it. Would you take the offer? This might sound like a pointless question, but the action of a stock split puts you in a similar position. In this article we will explore what a stock split is, why its done and what it means to the investor.
What Is a Stock Split?
A stock split is a corporate action that increases the number of the corporations outstanding shares by dividing each share, which in turn diminishes its price. The stocks market capitalization, however, remains the same, just like the value of the $100 bill does not change if it is exchanged for two $50s. For example, with a 2-for-1 stock split, each stockholder receives an additional share for each share held, but the value of each share is reduced by half: two shares now equal the original value of one share before the split.
Lets say stock A is trading at $40 and has 10 million shares issued, which gives it a market capitalization of $400 million ($40 x 10 million shares). The company then decides to implement a 2-for-1 stock split. For each share shareholders currently own, they receive one share, deposited directly into their brokerage account . They now have two shares for each one previously held, but the price of the stock is split by 50%, from $40 to $20. Notice that the market capitalization stays the same - it has doubled the amount of stocks outstanding to 20 million while simultaneously reducing the stock price by 50% to $20 for a capitalization of $400 million. The true value of the company hasnt changed one bit.
The most common stock splits are, 2-for-1, 3-for-2 and 3-for-1. An easy way to determine the new stock price is to divide the previous stock price by the split ratio. In the case of our example, divide $40 by 2 and we get the new trading price of $20. If a stock were to split 3-for-2, wed do the same thing: 40/(3/2) = 40/1.5 = $26.6.
It is also possible to have a reverse stock split: a 1-for-10 means that for every ten shares you own, you get one share. Below we illustrate exactly what happens with the most popular splits in regards to number of shares, share price and market cap of the company splitting its shares.
Whats the Point of a Stock Split?
So, if the value of the stock doesnt change, what motivates a company to split its stock? Good question. There are several reasons companies consider carrying out this corporate action.
The first reason is psychology. As the price of a stock gets higher and higher, some investors may feel the price is too high for them to buy, or small investors may feel it is unaffordable. Splitting the stock brings the share price down to a more attractive level. The effect here is purely psychological. The actual value of the stock doesnt change one bit, but the lower stock price may affect the way the stock is perceived and therefore entice new investors. Splitting the stock also gives existing shareholders the feeling that they suddenly have more shares than they did before, and of course, if the prices rises, they have more stock to trade.
Another reason, and arguably a more logical one, for splitting a stock is to increase a stocks liquidity, which increases with the stocks number of outstanding shares. You see, when stocks get into the hundreds of dollars per share, very large bid/ask spreads can result (see Why the Bid/Ask Spread Is So Important.). A perfect example is Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway, which has never had a stock split. At times, Berkshire stock has traded at nearly $100,000 and its bid/ask spread can often be over $1,000. By splitting shares a lower bid/ask spread is often achieved, thereby increasing liquidity.
None of these reasons or potential effects that weve mentioned agree with financial theory, however. If you ask a finance professor, he or she will likely tell you that splits are totally irrelevant - yet companies still do it. Splits are a good demonstration of how the actions of companies and the behaviors of investors do not always fall into line with financial theory. This very fact has opened up a wide and relatively new area of financial study called behavioral finance (see Taking A Chance On Behavorial Finance.).
Advantages for Investors
There are plenty of arguments over whether a stock split is an advantage or disadvantage to investors. One side says a stock split is a good buying indicator, signaling that the companys share price is increasing and therefore doing very well. This may be true, but on the other hand, you cant get around the fact that a stock split has no affect on the fundamental value of the stock and therefore poses no real advantage to investors. Despite this fact the investment newsletter business has taken note of the often positive sentiment surrounding a stock split. There are entire publications devoted to tracking stocks that split and attempting to profit from the bullish nature of the splits. Critics would say that this strategy is by no means a time-tested one and questionably successful at best.
Factoring in Commissions
Historically, buying before the split was a good strategy because of commissions that were weighted by the number of shares you bought. It was advantageous only because it saved you money on commissions. This isnt such an advantage today because most brokers offer a flat fee for commissions, so you pay the same amount whether you buy 10 shares or 1,000 shares. Some online brokers have a limit of 2,000 or 5,000 shares for that flat rate, but most investors dont buy that many shares at once. The flat rate therefore covers most trades, so it does not matter if you buy pre-split or post-split.
Conclusion
The most important thing to know about stock splits is that there is no effect on the worth (as measured by market capitalization) of the company. A stock split should not be the deciding factor that entices you into buying a stock. While there are some psychological reasons why companies will split their stock, the split doesnt change any of the business fundamentals. In the end, whether you have two $50 bills or one $100 bill, you have the same amount in the bank.
A comparative analysis of the competition within a sector will help identify those companies with an edge, and those most likely to keep it.
The OTCQX tier includes both multinational companies seeking access to U.S. investors and domestic growth companies.[12] To be traded on this tier, companies undergo a qualitative review by OTC Markets Group.[13] Companies are not required to be registered with or reporting to the SEC, but must post financial information with OTC Markets Group.
A Guide To Investor Fees
Fees are one of the most important determinants of investment performance and something that every investor should focus upon. This article will show why fees are so important, list some of the typical fees investors can expect to pay, and focus on some investment types that generally carry high (and low) fees. (Discover how investment strategies and expense ratios impact your mutual funds returns. Check out Stop Paying High Mutual Fund Fees.) TUTORIAL: Choosing Quality Mutual Funds Why Fees Matter
It is easy for investors to forget about fees when focusing upon other important subjects such as asset allocation or security selection. However, in addition to the overall market movements and an individuals stock picking abilities, the level of fees that investors pay is one of the most important determinants of investor performance.
The following example might astonish you. The numbers below assume that you contribute $3,000 to your retirement account in year one. Each year, as your salary increases, you increase your contribution by $250. So in year two, you contribute $3,250, in year three you contribute $3,500, and in year four you contribute $3,750. You then continue to gradually increase your contributions for the remainder of your career (30 years) and earn an 8% annualized return on your diversified portfolio. Although you earn 8% gross returns, your net return will be reduced by the amount of fees you pay. The higher the fees, the lower the return you actually receive.
The only difference in the investment programs in the chart below is the level of fees - everything else is identical. Look at the difference in the amount that you end up with at retirement, depending upon how much you pay in fees each year. The numbers are nothing short of staggering.
Gross
Return Fees Net
Return Account
Value
Without Fees Account
Value
With Fees Amount
Lost
Due To Fees
8.00% 0.50% 7.50% $648,118.44 $596,477.60 ($51,640.84)
8.00% 0.75% 7.25% $648,118.44 $572,454.51 ($75,663.93)
8.00% 1.00% 7.00% $648,118.44 $549,551.41 ($98,567.03)
8.00% 1.50% 6.50% $648,118.44 $506,887.81 ($141,230.63)
8.00% 2.00% 6.00% $648,118.44 $468,078.69 ($180,039.75)
Source: From Piggybank to Portfolio
A common retirement goal is to be able to withdraw between 3-5% of an investment portfolio each year during retirement. In the scenario above, if two individuals had invested throughout their careers in a similar manner, but one person had paid 0.50% in fees and the other had paid 2.00%, the difference in their annual income during retirement would be more than $5,000 each year. That means that one person would have $420 less each month on which to live, just because they had paid excessive fees on their investment portfolio during their working years. (If you are investing small amounts regularly into an exchange-traded fund, be sure to do it right. See Dollar-Cost Averaging With ETFs.)
Sample Fees
Hopefully, the above example has convinced you of the importance of fees. While it is not always necessary to aim for the lowest possible fees in a portfolio, it is generally a good idea to select investments and investment providers that fall in the range of those available. With that in mind, the matrix below demonstrates some typical fees. (Note: the fees in the matrix below are indicative and are intended to serve as a starting point for further research and analysis.)
Online Brokers Stock Trade ($) Option Trade ($)
Brokerage 1 8.95 8.95 0.75 per contract
Brokerage 2 7.99-9.99 7.99-9.99 0.75 per contract
Brokerage 3 7.95 7.95 0.75 per contract
Brokerage 4 9.99 9.99 0.75 per contract
Brokerage 5 7.00 7.00 1.25 per contract
ETFs Issuer X Issuer Y
S
If prices move above the upper band of the trading range, then demand is winning. If prices move below the lower band, then supply is winning.
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Why You Should Be Wary Of Target-Date Funds
Its the in thing now; everybodys doing it, so why wouldnt you? Heres how the story repeatedly plays out, especially for those who recently opened a new 401(k) or 403(b) account. The benefits manager of your company sent you a big stack of documents and told you to complete the application. You thumbed through everything, skimming the microscopic print in these pamphlets called prospectuses, and found yourself completely overwhelmed.
Luckily, as you were completing the application, you noticed that you could either pick your own investment options or choose the ready-made option that placed all of your retirement funds into a target-date fund. You didnt know what it was, but you didnt know how to pick your investment options anyway, so into this target-date fund is where your money has gone.
What Is a Target-Date Fund?
The concept is very simple. A target-date fund adjusts the assets in the fund to line up with your retirement timeline. If youre planning to retire in 15 years, you might pick a target-date fund of 2025 or 2030. The fund manager will adjust the holdings and when you near retirement age, that fund will hold a lot of bonds, instead of the more risky stocks.
You dont have to worry about adjusting your investment portfolio because the fund does it for you. If you dont have the time or desire to learn how to manage your retirement portfolio, these target-date funds might be a great idea.
As your grandparents might have said, if its too good to be true, it probably isnt and that might be the case with target-date funds.
The Whole You
First, you are more than a date. Knowing that you plan to retire in 2025 or 2030 isnt enough information to assemble your retirement portfolio; imagine a doctor asking nothing more than your age. Your investment portfolio should be crafted around your tolerance for risk, the other assets you own, your family situation, social security and more. A target-date fund doesnt take any of that into account, because its designed for a large amount instead of you, personally.
They Might Cost a Lot
According to Consumer Reports, the median expense ratio of target-date funds is 0.68%, compared to 0.71% for stock funds. That isnt bad if your plan offers a target-date fund around the median, but the median expense ratio of index funds, a fund that tracks the performance of a certain investment index, is only 0.5% and you can find index funds for as low as 0.1%.
In general, actively managed funds, funds that have a team of people picking stocks and bonds in an attempt to beat the overall market, will cost more, but over the long term they dont perform any better than an index fund that is cheaper.
Theyre Hard to Understand
Target-date funds are like a brand new car . They look good on the outside but theyre hard to figure out when you open the hood. A recent SEC study found that many people believed that a target-date fund guarantees an income stream at retirement much like an annuity or a pension.
Others believed that once the fund reached the target-date, no more allocation changes in the fund were made. Both of these facts are untrue but this, along with the fact that a 2025 fund may vary greatly between companies, makes these funds dangerous for investors to take at face value.
The Bottom Line
Regardless of what you read today or in the future, there is no one investment product that will address all of your investing needs. A combination of products that may include a target-date fund is the best way to insure your retirement needs are met. Diversification will likely always be the best way to protect and grow your portfolio.
Company Analysis
With a shortlist of companies, an investor might analyze the resources and capabilities within each company to identify those companies that are capable of creating and maintaining a competitive advantage. The analysis could focus on selecting companies with a sensible business plan, solid management and sound financials.
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Investing In Oil And Gas UITs
The substantial rise in energy prices in the mid-2000s attracted many investors seeking aggressive growth and profits in the oil and gas industry. Although many of these investors cashed in on the gains posted by various energy and natural resources equities, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds , there are other alternatives available that provide more direct exposure to the energy markets.
Limited partnerships, working interests and unit investment trusts (UITs) all provide pass-through treatment of both income and deductions derived from oil and gas investments at the wellhead. This article will examine the nature and purpose of oil and gas UITs, their advantages and disadvantages, and help you decide if they should be fueling your portfolio.
Nature and Composition
By definition, oil and gas UITs are very similar to other UITs that invest in stocks or real estate. Each trust is broken down into individual units that are priced and sold to investors. Each unit represents an undivided proportional interest in all of the oil and gas properties held by the trust, and each trust has a set maturity date upon which all gains and losses from the sale of the assets are dispersed to the unit-holders.
Unlike stock unit trusts or real estate investment trusts (REITs), oil and gas UITs invest directly in either production or exploratory drilling oil and gas assets, then pass through the income and expenses realized from the actual production of oil and natural gas.
Who Should Invest in Oil and Gas UITs?
Investors who are seeking more direct, tax-advantaged exposure to oil and gas investments should consider oil and gas UITs, as the UITs can pass through deductible operational expenses and investment income that is eligible for the depletion allowance.
Energy-focused mutual funds may only buy equity interests in various oil, gas and other energy companies, but seldom offer direct participation of any kind. Energy mutual funds cannot offer pass-through treatment, and usually can only post fully taxable dividends and capital gains.
Furthermore, oil and gas UITs will not post taxable capital gains of any kind until the trust matures, unlike mutual funds that pass through capital gains annually. Aggressive investors seeking larger profits in the energy sector may also benefit from the more direct arrangement of oil and gas UITs as opposed to energy mutual funds.
Pros and Cons
One of the main advantages that holders of energy trusts enjoy is the pass-through tax status, similar to that of limited partnerships or direct working interests. As stated previously, income derived from oil and gas UITs can be eligible for the depletion deduction, and a proportional share of deductible operational expenses is passed through as well.
It should be noted that oil and gas UITs are usually riskier by nature than energy mutual funds, as any properties that cease to produce, for whatever reason, during the tenure of the trust cannot be replaced until maturity. Another factor to consider is that oil and gas units are wasting assets, as their value will automatically decline as producing properties within the trust become depleted over time. Furthermore, investor income is reduced by maintenance and operating costs associated with oil and gas production at the wellhead, such as electric fees, pumping fees and parts replacement.
Income realized from oil and gas UITs is also subject to fluctuation with the rise and fall of energy prices. This risk can be at least partially offset with an investment in both oil and gas properties within the same trust, as the prices of oil and gas do not necessarily move in lock-step.
Finally, oil and gas UITs that participate in drilling of any kind include the risk of unsuccessful development, where one or more wells that are drilled produce little or no oil or gas. This occurrence can obviously lower the value of the trust, as well as deprive the investor of income from the anticipated current production that is never realized.
How Do I Pick the Right Oil and Gas UIT?
When choosing a UIT that invests in oil and gas properties, the most important criteria for investors generally will be the level of risk inherent in the trust. Aggressive trusts that focus on exploratory drilling projects are much more speculative in nature than UITs that invest solely in producing properties. However, successful exploratory drilling also offers greater tax deductions and the potential for higher income. Moderate or conservative investors seeking a regular stream of income should probably restrict their investing to UITs that contain mature producing oil and gas fields.
The Bottom Line
Although oil and gas UITs are similar securities to REITs or trusts that invest in stocks or bonds in many respects, they offer a relatively unique set of advantages and risks to investors. Those seeking more direct exposure to the energy sector (as well as those needing tax-advantaged income) can benefit from investing in these trusts. Investors considering UITs should consult with a tax advisor to determine the efficacy of UITs given their individual tax situations.
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Trend lines tend to match lows better on semi-log scales.
Semi-log scales are useful for long-term charts to gauge the percentage movements over a long period of time. Large movements are put into perspective.
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The 6 Most Common Portfolio Protection Strategies
The key to successful long-term investing is the preservation of capital. Warren Buffett, arguably the worlds greatest investor, has one rule when investing - never lose money. This doesnt mean you should sell your investment holdings the moment they enter losing territory, but you should remain keenly aware of your portfolio and the losses youre willing to endure in an effort to increase your wealth. While its impossible to avoid risk entirely when investing in the markets, these five strategies can help protect your portfolio.
Diversification
One of the cornerstones of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is diversification. In a market downturn, MPT disciples believe a well-diversified portfolio will outperform a concentrated one. Investors create deeper and more broadly diversified portfolios by owning a large number of investments in more than one asset class, thus reducing unsystematic risk. This is the risk that comes with investing in a particular company as opposed to systematic risk, which is the risk associated with investing in the markets generally.
Non-Correlating Assets
According to some financial experts, stock portfolios that include 12, 18 or even 30 stocks can eliminate most, if not all, unsystematic risk. Unfortunately, systematic risk is always present and cant be diversified away. However, by adding non-correlating asset classes such as bonds, commodities, currencies and real estate to a group of stocks, the end-result is often lower volatility and reduced systematic risk due to the fact that non-correlating assets react differently to changes in the markets compared to stocks; when one asset is down, another is up.
Ultimately, the use of non-correlating assets eliminates the highs and lows in performance, providing more balanced returns. At least thats the theory. In recent years, however, evidence suggests that assets that were once non-correlating now mimic each other, thereby reducing the strategys effectiveness. (See why investors today still follow this old set of principles that reduce risk and increase returns through diversification. Check out Modern Portfolio Theory: Why Its Still Hip.)
Leap Puts and Other Option Strategies
Between 1926 and 2009, the S
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Does it sound too good to be true? Then it probably is. You should never make a decision about investing your money in a particular company solely on the basis of a "hot tip" or someone's advice. It is important that you make an informed decision based on your thorough research which includes the company's annual report, current financial statements and material news.
Digging Deeper Into Bull And Bear Markets
Almost every day in the investing world, you will hear the terms bull and bear to describe market conditions. As common as these terms are, however, defining and understanding what they mean is not so easy. Because the direction of the market is a major force affecting your portfolio, its important you know exactly what the terms bull and bear market actually signify, how they are characterized and how each affects you.
What Are Bear and Bull Markets?
Used to describe how stock markets are doing in general - that is, whether they are appreciating or depreciating in value - these two terms are constantly buzzing around the investing world. At the same time, because the market is determined by investors attitudes, these terms also denote how investors feel about the market and the ensuing trend.
Simply put, a bull market refers to a market that is on the rise. It is typified by a sustained increase in market share prices. In such times, investors have faith that the uptrend will continue in the long term. Typically, the countrys economy is strong and employment levels are high.
On the other hand, a bear market is one that is in decline. Share prices are continuously dropping, resulting in a downward trend that investors believe will continue in the long run, which, in turn, perpetuates the spiral. During a bear market, the economy will typically slow down and unemployment will rise as companies begin laying off workers.
Where Did the Terms Come From?
The origins of the terms bull and bear are unclear, but here are two of the most common explanations:
1. The bear and bull markets are named after the way in which each animal attacks its victims. It is characteristic of the bull to drive its horns up into the air, while a bear, on the other hand, like the market that bears its name, will swipe its paws downward upon its unfortunate prey. Furthermore, bears and bulls were literally once fierce opponents when it was popular to put bulls and bears into the arena for a fight match. Matches using bulls and bears (whether together or gains other animals) took place in the Elizabethan era in London and were also a popular spectator sport in ancient Rome.
2. Historically, the middlemen who were involved in the sale of bearskins would sell skins that they had not yet received and, as such, these middlemen were the first short sellers. After promising their customers to deliver the paid-for bearskins, these middlemen would hope that the near-future purchase price of the skins from the trappers would decrease from the current market price. If the decrease occurred, the middlemen would make a personal profit from the spread between the price for which they had sold the skins and the price at which they later bought the skins from the trappers. These middlemen became known as bears, short for bearskin jobbers, and the term stuck for describing a person who expects or hopes for a decrease in the market.
Characteristics of a Bull and Bear Market
Although we know that a bull or bear market condition is marked by the direction of stock prices, there are some accompanying characteristics of the bull and bear markets that investors should be aware of. The following list describes some of the factors that generally are affected by the current market type, but do keep in mind that these are not steadfast or absolute rules for typifying either bull or bear markets:
• Supply and Demand for Securities - In a bull market, we see strong demand and weak supply for securities. In other words, many investors are wishing to buy securities while few are willing to sell. As a result, share prices will rise as investors compete to obtain available equity. In a bear market, the opposite is true as more people are looking to sell than buy. The demand is significantly lower than supply and, as a result, share prices drop. (For more on this, read Economics Basics: Demad and Supply.)
• Investor Psychology - Because the markets behavior is impacted and determined by how individuals perceive that behavior, investor psychology and sentiment are fundamental to whether the market will rise or fall. Stock market performance and investor psychology are mutually dependent. In a bull market, most everyone is interested in the market, willingly participating in the hope of obtaining a profit. During a bear market, on the other hand, market sentiment is negative as investors are beginning to move their money out of equities and into fixed-income securities until there is a positive move. In sum, the decline in stock market prices shakes investor confidence, which causes investors to keep their money out of the market - which, in turn, causes the decline in the stock market. (For related reading, see Taking A Chance On Behavioral Finance.)
• Change in Economic Activity - Because the businesses whose stocks are trading on the exchanges are the participants of the greater economy, the stock market and the economy are strongly connected. A bear market is associated with a weak economy as most businesses are unable to record huge profits because consumers are not spending nearly enough. This decline in profits, of course, directly affects the way the market values stocks. In a bull market, the reverse occurs as people have more money to spend and are willing to spend it, which, in turn, drives and strengthens the economy.
How to Gauge Market Changes
The key determinant of whether the market is bull or bear is the long-term trend, not just the markets knee-jerk reaction to a particular event. Small movements only represent a short-term trend or a market correction. Of course, the length of the time period that you are viewing will determine whether you see a bull or bear market.
For instance, the last two weeks could have shown the market to be bullish while the last two years may have displayed a bearish tendency. Thus, most agree that a decided reversal in the market should be ascertained by the degree of the change: if multiple indexes have changed by at least 15-20%, investors can be quite certain the market has taken a different direction. If the new trend does continue, it is because investors are perceiving a changes in both market and economic conditions and are thus making decisions accordingly.
Not all long movements in the market can be characterized as bull or bear. Sometimes a market may go through a period of stagnation as it tries to find direction. In this case, a series of up and downward movements would actually cancel-out gains and losses resulting in a flat market trend.
What To Do?
In a bull market, the ideal thing for an investor to do is take advantage of rising prices by buying early in the trend and then selling them when they have reached their peak. (Of course, determining exactly when the bottom and the peak will occur is impossible.) On the whole, when investors have a tendency to believe that the market will rise (thus being bullish), they are more likely to make profits in a bull market. As prices are on the rise, any losses should be minor and temporary. During the bull market, an investor can actively and confidently invest in more equity with a higher probability of making a return.
In a bear market, however, the chance of losses is greater because prices are continually losing value and the end is not often in sight. Even if you do decide to invest with the hope of an upturn, you are likely to take a loss before any turnaround occurs. Thus, most of the profitability will be found in short selling or safer investments such as fixed-income securities. An investor may also turn to defensive stocks, whose performances are only minimally affected by changing trends in the market and are therefore stable in both economic gloom and boom. These are industries such as utilities, which are often owned by the government and are necessities that people buy regardless of the economic condition.
Conclusion
There is no sure way to predict market trends, so investors should invest their money based on the quality of the investments. At the same time, however, you should have an understanding of long-term market trends from a historical perspective. Because both bear and bull markets will have a large influence over your investments, do take the time to determine what the market is doing when you are making an investment decision. Remember though, in the long term, the market has posted a positive return.
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1What is Fundamental Analysis?
Fundamental analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the well being of the economy, industry groups, and companies.
5 Ways To Double Your Investment
Theres something about the idea of doubling ones money on an investment that intrigues most investors. Its a badge of honor dragged out at cocktail parties, a promise made by over-zealous advisors, and a headline that frequents the cover of some of the most popular personal finance magazines. Where this fixation comes from is anyones guess.
Perhaps it comes from deep in our investor psychology - that risk-taking part of us that loves the quick buck. Or maybe its simply the aesthetic side of us that prefers round numbers - saying youre up 97% doesnt quite roll off the tongue like I doubled my money. Fortunately, doubling your money is both a realistic goal that investors should always be moving toward, as well as something that can lure many people into impulsive investing mistakes. Here we look at the right and wrong way to invest for big returns.
The Classic Way - Earn It Slowly
Investors who have been around for a while will remember the classic Smith Barney commercial from the 1980s, where British actor John Houseman informs viewers in his unmistakable accent that they make money the old fashioned way - they earn it. When it comes to the most traditional way of doubling your money, that commercials not too far from reality.
Perhaps the most tested way to double your money over a reasonable amount of time is too invest in a solid, non-speculative portfolio thats diversified between blue-chip stocks and investment grade bonds. While that portfolio wont double in a year, it almost surely will eventually, thanks to the old rule of 72.
The rule of 72 is a famous shortcut for calculating how long it will take for an investment to double if its growth compounds on itself. According to the rule of 72, you divide your expected annual rate of return into 72, and that tells you how many years it takes you to double your money.
Considering that large, blue-chip stocks have returned roughly 10% over the last 100 years and investment grade bonds have returned roughly 6%, a portfolio that is divided evenly between the two should return about 8%. Dividing that expected return (8%) into 72 gives a portfolio that should double every nine years. Thats not too shabby when you consider that it will quadruple after 18 years.
The Contrarian Way - Blood in the Streets
Even straight-laced, even-keeled investors know that there comes a time when you must buy - not because everyone is getting in on a good thing, but because everyone is getting out. Just like great athletes go through slumps when many fans turn their backs, the stock prices of otherwise great companies occasionally go through slumps because fickle investors head for the hills.
As Baron Rothschild (and Sir John Templeton) once said, smart investors buy when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is their own. Of course, these famous financiers werent arguing that you buy garbage. Rather, they are arguing that there are times when good investments become oversold, which presents a buying opportunity for brave investors who have done their homework.
Perhaps the most classic barometers used to gauge when a stock may be oversold is the price-to-earnings ratio and the book value for a company. Both of these measures have fairly well-established historical norms for both the broad markets and for specific industries. When companies slip well below these historical averages for superficial or systemic reasons, smart investors will smell an opportunity to double their money.
The Safe Way
Just like how the fast lane and the slow lane on the freeway eventually lead to the same place, there are both quick and slow ways to double your money. So for those investors who are afraid of wrapping their portfolio around a telephone pole, bonds may provide a significantly less precarious journey to the same destination.
But investors taking less risk by using bonds dont have to give up their dreams of one day proudly bragging about doubling their money. In fact, zero-coupon bonds (including classic U.S. savings bonds) can keep you in the double your money discussion.
For the uninitiated, zero-coupon bonds may sound intimidating. In reality, theyre surprisingly simple to understand. Instead of purchasing a bond that rewards you with a regular interest payment, you buy a bond at a discount to its eventual maturity amount. For example, instead of paying $1,000 for a $1,000 bond that pays 5% per year, an investor might buy that same $1,000 for $500. As it moves closer and closer to maturity, its value slowly climbs until the bondholder is eventually repaid the face amount.
One hidden benefit that many zero-coupon bondholders love is the absence of reinvestment risk. With standard coupon bonds, theres the ongoing challenge of reinvesting the interest payments when theyre received. With zero coupon bonds, which simply grow toward maturity, theres no hassle of trying to invest smaller interest rate payments or risk of falling interest rates.
The Speculative Way
While slow and steady might work for some investors, others may find themselves falling asleep at the wheel. They crave more excitement in their portfolios and are willing to take bigger risks to earn bigger payoffs. For these folks, the fastest ways to super-size the nest egg may be the use of options, margin or penny stocks.
Stock options, such as simple puts and calls, can be used to speculate on any companys stock. For many investors, especially those who have their finger on the pulse of a specific industry, options can turbo-charge their portfolios performance. Considering that each stock option potentially represents 100 shares of stock, a companys price might only need to increase a small percentage for an investor to hit one out of the park. Be careful and be sure to do your homework; options can take away wealth just as quickly as they create it.
For those who want dont want to learn the ins and outs of options but do want to leverage their faith (or doubt) about a certain stock, theres the option of buying on margin or selling a stock short. Both of these methods allow investors to essentially borrow money from a brokerage house to buy or sell more shares than they actually have, which in turn can raise their potential profits substantially. This method is not for the faint-hearted because margin calls can back your available cash into a corner, and short-selling can theoretically generate infinite losses.
Lastly, extreme bargain hunting can quickly turn your pennies into dollars. Whether you decide to roll the dice on the numerous former blue-chip companies that are now selling for less than a dollar, or you sink a few thousand dollars into the next big thing, penny stocks can double your money in a single trading day. Just remember, whether a company is selling for a dollar or a few pennies, its price reflects the fact that other investors dont see any value in paying more.
The Best Way to Double Your Money
While its not nearly as fun as watching your favorite stock on the evening news, the undisputed heavyweight champ of doubling your money is that matching contribution you receive in your employers retirement plan . Its not sexy and it wont wow the neighbors at your next block party, but getting an automatic 50 cents for every dollar you deposit is tough to beat.
Making it even better is the fact that the money going into your 401(k) or other employer-sponsored retirement plan comes right off the top of what your employer reports to the IRS. For most Americans, that means that each dollar invested really only costs them 65 to 75 cents out of their pockets. In other words, for every 75 cents, most Americans are willing to forgo out of their paychecks, theyll have $1.50 or more added to their retirement nest egg.
Before you start complaining about how your employer doesnt have a 401(k) or how your company has cut their contribution because of the economy, dont forget that the government also matches some portion of the retirement contributions of taxpayers earning less than a certain amount. The Credit for Qualified Retirement Savings Contribution reduces your tax bill by 10 to 50% of what ever you contribute to a variety of retirement accounts (from 401(k)s to Roth IRAs).
If Its Too Good to Be True …
Theres an old saying that if something is too good to be true, then it probably is. Thats sage advice when it comes to doubling your money, considering that there are probably far more investment scams out there than sure things. While there certainly are other ways to approach doubling your money than the ones mentioned so far, always be suspicious when youre promised results. Whether its your broker, your brother-in-law or a late-night infomercial, take the time to make sure that someone is not using you to double their money.
$EXPU BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX
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Too Late
Technical analysis has been criticized for being too late. By the time the trend is identified, a substantial portion of the move has already taken place. After such a large move, the reward to risk ratio is not great. Lateness is a particular criticism of Dow Theory.
Always Another Level
OTC trading, as well as exchange trading, occurs with commodities, financial instruments (including stocks), and derivatives of such. Products traded on the exchange must be well standardized. This means that exchanged deliverables match a narrow range of quantity, quality, and identity which is defined by the exchange and identical to all transactions of that product. This is necessary for there to be transparency in trading.
The Wall Street Animal Farm: Getting To Know The Lingo
Many people are intimidated by the business news because they dont understand the vernacular. Bull? Bear? Ostrich?!! What does this have to do with money? But theres good news: Wall Street language isnt only for business elites with advanced degrees from Ivy League schools. In fact, you may be surprised to find out that most Wall Street lingo is neither sophisticated nor esoteric. Yes, the truth is that investment bankers and brokers typically use words you probably mastered in kindergarten. Lets take a look at these barnyard words from a financiers perspective - youll be fluent in no time.
A Dog With Fleas
Depending on your movie knowledge, you may remember this classic line in the 1987 movie Wall Street : Its a dog with fleas, kid. That was how Gordon Gekko described a stock tip from a young, ambitious stockbroker named Bud Foxx. A dog is an underperforming stock or asset. Most Wall Street investors think of dog as a four-letter word, but a few are attracted to the dogs of the market. An investment philosophy called the dogs of the Dow theory advocates purchasing the most beaten-down stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) each year. According to this theory, by purchasing the stocks with the highest dividend yields in the Dow 30, investors can expect returns in the 13% range over a 15-year period.
Bear
The term bear refers to the given market conditions. Bull and bear are probably the most familiar terms on Main Street. Bear markets are rife with pessimism and negative sentiment. Typically, a bear market is one that has experienced declines of at least 15-20% and lasts more than two months. Probably the most famous bear markets occurred in 1929, which some believe caused the Great Depression. Unfortunately, economic indicators in 2008 have drawn comparisons to the Great Depression of 1929. The severe housing and credit bubbles originating in the first decade of the new millennium in the United States burst abruptly in 2007, and this credit unwinding, or deleveraging had a negative ripple effect on economies and markets worldwide. Venerable institutions, such as Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers were wiped out by this bear market . Stock markets across the globe also experienced severe downturns. Governments engineered financial rescue packages for many large banks and insurance giants to avoid global financial markets meltdowns.
While there is no clear-cut strategy for investors in terms of surviving a bear market, many financial advisors suggest that bear markets occur as part of the normal economic and business cycle. For longer-term investors, these bear markets could be viewed as buying opportunities. Other advisors may recommend selling stocks and raising cash until a clear direction or bottom of the market begins to appear. (To learn more, read Adapt To A Bear Market.)
Bull
The term bull refers to a very positive stock market environment in which stock prices are increasing and money is flowing into stocks. Investor confidence is high in bull markets. During the 1990s and through early 2000, the U.S. stock market experienced a sustained bull market in stocks. Perhaps the poster child for the technology bull market of the 1990s was Cisco Systems (Nasdaq:CSCO). Cisco was experiencing tremendous growth due to the internet boom, and the stock returned nearly 75,000% from 1990 to 2000. Similarly, America Online (AOL) returned 480% in just six months. Bull markets can be very powerful creators of wealth for the average investor as well as Wall Street gurus. (For related reading about stock returns during bull markets, see The All Equities Portfolio Fallacy.)
Ostrich
An ostrich is an investor who fails to react to critical situations or events that are likely to impact his or her investment. For example, if the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is launching an investigation into a company, an action that could be detrimental to the companys stock price, the ostrich will simply ignore this news. The ostrich effect is one in which investors bury their heads in the sand, hoping for better days ahead. Ostriches appear (or disappear) most frequently during bear markets, when people tend to experience the most financial stress.
Pig
A pig is any investor who puts greed ahead of his or her investment principles or sound strategies. Anyone who watches investment guru Jim Cramer knows one of his most famous expressions: Bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered. A pig tends to think that a 100% return over a 12-month period is not good enough. As a result, the pig may then go and borrow money on margin or mortgage his or her home to buy more of a stock at a higher price with the hope of making more money on the investment. The pig can get slaughtered if the stock drops and all the original gains are lost.
Smart investors are disciplined investors. Professional investors know when to take profits as well as when to cut their losses. Their primary concern is the preservation of capital and not necessarily hitting a home run every time they step up to the plate.
Sheep
A sheep is an investor who has no strategy or focus in mind. This type of person simply listens to others for financial advice, and often misses out on the most meaningful moves in the market as a result. For example, sheep investors who had a philosophy of only buying value stocks in the 1990s missed one of the greatest bull markets of our time. In other words, a sheep can be eaten by a bull or bear if he or she isnt in the right place in the market.
Conclusion
Dont assume that you cant learn trader-talk or Wall-Street-speak just because you dont work there. In fact, picking up the lingo may be more of an exercise of your animal knowledge instead of your investment savvy. Learning these terms can help you gain some insight into the world of words on Wall Street. Surprisingly, youll find that they arent different much from the words heard on Main Street - or in kindergarten classrooms across America.
BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX $MRNJ
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/MRNJ
A logarithmic scale measures price movements in percentage terms. An advance from 10 to 20 would represent an increase of 100%. An advance from 20 to 40 would also be 100%, as would an advance from 40 to 80.
The OTC market and broker-dealers’ activities in the market are regulated by The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and various state securities regulators. As well, companies with SEC-registered securities are regulated by the SEC. OTC Markets Group is neither a stock exchange nor a self-regulatory organization (SRO).
Everything Investors Need To Know About Earnings
You cant get far in the stock market without understanding earnings. Everybody from CEOs to research analysts is infatuated with this often-quoted number. But what exactly do earnings represent? Why do they attract so much attention? Well answer these questions and more in this primer on earnings.
What Are Earnings?
A companys earnings are, quite simply, its profits. Take a companys revenue from selling something, subtract all the costs to produce that product, and, voila, you have earnings! Of course, the details of accounting get a lot more complicated, but underneath all the financial jargon what is really being measured is how much money a company makes.
Part of the confusion associated with earnings is caused by its many synonyms. The terms profit, net income, bottom line and earnings all refer to the same thing.
Earnings Per Share
To compare the earnings of different companies, investors and analysts often use the ratio earnings per share (EPS). To calculate EPS you take the earnings left over for shareholders and divide by the number of shares outstanding. You can think of EPS as a per-capita way of describing earnings. Because every company has a different number of shares owned by the public, comparing only companies earnings figures does not indicate how much money each company made for each of its shares, so we need EPS to make valid comparisons.
For example, take two companies: ABC Corp. and XYZ Corp. They both have earnings of $1 million but ABC Corp has 1 million shares outstanding while XYZ Corp. only has 100,000 shares outstanding. ABC Corp. has EPS of $1 per share ($1 million/1 million shares) while XYZ Corp. has EPS of $10 per share ($1 million/100,000 shares).
Earnings Season
Earnings season is Wall Streets equivalent to a school report card. It happens four times per year; publicly traded companies in the U.S. are required by law to report their financial results on a quarterly basis. Most companies follow the calendar year for reporting, but they do have the option of reporting based on their own fiscal calendars.
Although it is important to remember that investors look at all financial results, you might have guessed that earnings (or EPS) is the most important number released during earnings season, attracting the most attention and media coverage. Before earnings reports come out, stock analysts issue earnings estimates - what they think earnings will come in at. These forecasts are then compiled by research firms into the consensus earnings estimate.
When a company beats this estimate its called an earnings surprise, and the stock usually moves higher. If a company releases earnings below these estimates it is said to disappoint, and the price typically moves lower. All this makes it hard to try to guess how a stock will move during earnings season: its really all about expectations. (For more on this phenonmenon, see Surprising Earnings Results.)
Why Do Investors Care About Earnings?
Investors care about earnings because they ultimately drive stock prices . Strong earnings generally result in the stock price moving up (and vice versa). Sometimes a company with a rocketing stock price might not be making much money, but the rising price means that investors are hoping that the company will be profitable in the future - of course, there are no guarantees that the company will fulfill investors current expectations.
The dotcom boom and bust is a perfect example of company earnings coming in significantly short of the numbers investors imagined. When the boom started, everybody got excited about the prospects for any company involved in the internet, and stock prices soared. Over time, it became clear that the dotcoms werent going to make nearly as much money as many had predicted. It simply wasnt possible for the market to support these companies high valuations without any earnings; as a result, the stock prices of these companies collapsed.
When a company is making money it has two options. First, it can improve its products and develop new ones. Second, it can pass the money onto shareholders in the form of a dividend or a share buyback (see The Lowdown on Stock Buybacks). It really is this simple!
In the first case, you trust the management to re-invest profits in the hope of making more profits. In the second case, you get your money right away. Typically, smaller companies attempt to create shareholder value by reinvesting profits, while more mature companies pay out dividends. Neither method is necessarily better, but both rely on the same idea: in the long run, earnings provide a return on shareholders investments .
Summary
Earnings means profit; its the money a company makes. It is often evaluated in terms of earnings per share (EPS) - this is the most important indicator of a companys financial health. Earnings reports are released four times per year and are followed very closely by Wall Street. In the end, growing earnings are a good indication that a company is on the right path to providing a solid return for investors.
It is important to be aware of these biases when analyzing a chart. If the analyst is a perpetual bull, then a bullish bias will overshadow the analysis.
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The OTC market and broker-dealers’ activities in the market are regulated by The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and various state securities regulators. In addition, companies with SEC-registered securities are regulated by the SEC. OTC Markets Group is neither a stock exchange nor self-regulatory organization (SRO) and is not regulated by FINRA or the SEC.
Benchmark Your Returns With Indexes
Investors look to broad indexes as benchmarks to help them gauge not only how well the markets are performing, but also how well they, as investors, are performing. For those who own stocks, they look to indexes like the S
In addition, bar charts that include the open will tend to get cluttered quicker. If you are interested in the opening price, candlestick charts probably offer a better alternative.
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Investors must decide whether price (Limit Order) or timing/immediacy (Market Order) is more important to them.
The price set by the market reflects the sum knowledge of all participants, and we are not dealing with lightweights here. These participants have considered (discounted) everything under the sun and settled on a price to buy or sell.
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A decentralized market of securities not listed on an exchange where market participants trade over the telephone, facsimile or electronic network instead of a physical trading floor. There is no central exchange or meeting place for this market.
Of the many theorems put forth by Dow, three stand out:
Price Discounts Everything
Price Movements Are Not Totally Random
What Is More Important than Why
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http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/MIESF
Knowing Who's Who
Stocks move as a group. By understanding a company's business, investors can better position themselves to categorize stocks within their relevant industry group.
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http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/RDUFF
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