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A complete financial model can be built to forecast future revenues, expenses and profits or an investor can rely on the forecast of other analysts and apply various multiples to arrive at a valuation. Some of the more popular ratios are found by dividing the stock price by a key value driver.
Ratio
Price/Book Value
Price/Earnings
Price/Earnings/Growth
Price/Sales
Price/Subscribers
Price/Lines
Price/Page views
Price/Promises Company Type
Oil
Retail
Networking
B2B
ISP or cable company
Telecom
Web site Biotech
BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX $MDXG
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/MDXG
Within 30 seconds, members must report their transactions to FINRA’s OTC Reporting Facility, its service to accommodate reporting and dissemination of last sale reports in all OTC Equity Securities. The rule creates a uniform method of reporting obligations of member firms, including who must report, when those reports are due, what must be reported, and how to cancel trades already reported. Subsequent dissemination of transaction information by NASDAQ, on behalf of FINRA.
Test Your Money Personality
Like almost everything else in life, your response to money is largely dictated by your personality. But have you given much thought to how you behave in regard to your finances and how that behavior affects your bottom line? Understanding your money personality is the first step and will help you shape your approach to spending, saving and investing. So whats your money personality? Read on to find out.
Whats Your Type?
Money personalities have been analyzed in a variety of ways and many people can identify with aspects of several profiles. They key is to find the profile that most closely matches your behavior. The major profiles are: big spenders, savers, shoppers, debtors and investors.
• Big Spenders
Big spenders love nice cars, new gadgets and brand-name clothing. Big spenders arent bargain shoppers; they are fashionable and they are looking to make a statement. This often means a desire to have the smallest cell phone, the biggest plasma TV and a beautiful home. When it comes to keeping up the Joneses, big spenders are the Joneses. They are comfortable spending money, dont fear debt and often take big risks when investing.
• Savers
Savers are the exact opposite of big spenders. They turn off the lights when leaving the room, close the refrigerator door quickly to keep in the cold, shop only when necessary, and rarely make purchases with credit cards. They generally have no debts and are often viewed as cheapskates. Savers are not concerned about following the latest trends, and they derive more satisfaction from reading the interest on a bank statement than from acquiring something new. Savers are conservative by nature and dont take big risks with their investments .
• Shoppers
Shoppers derive great emotional satisfaction from spending money. They often cant resist spending money, even if its to purchase items they dont need. Shoppers are usually aware of their addiction to spending and are even concerned about the debt that it creates. They look for bargains and are pleased when they get a good deal. Shoppers will often shop to entertain themselves, even if the items they buy go unused.
Shoppers are an eclectic bunch when it comes to investing. Some invest on a regular basis through 401(k) plans and other automatic investments and may even invest a portion of any sudden windfalls such as bonuses or inheritance money, while others view investing as something they will get to later on. (To learn more, read Seven Common Financial Mistakes.)
• Debtors
Debtors arent trying to make a statement with their expenditures, and they dont shop to entertain or cheer themselves up. They simply dont spend much time thinking about their money and therefore dont keep tabs on what they spend and where they spend it. Debtors generally spend more than they earn and are deeply in debt and they dont put much thought into investing. Similarly, they often fail to even take advantage of the company match in their 401(k) plans . (For more, check out Digging Out Of Personal Debt.)
• Investors
Investors are consciously aware of money. They understand their financial situations and try to put their money to work. Regardless of their current financial standing, investors tend to seek a day when passive investments will provide sufficient income to cover all of their bills. Their actions are driven by careful decision making, and their investments reflect the need to take a certain amount of risk in pursuit of their goals. (To learn more about how investors think, read The Successful Investment Journey.)
Advice for Your Personality
Once you recognize yourself in one of these profiles and have put some thought into how you approach money, its time to see what you can do to make the most of what you have. Sometimes making just small changes can yield big results.
• Spenders: Shop a Little Less, Save a Little More
If you love to spend, you are going to keep doing it, but you should seek long-term value, not just short-term satisfaction. Before you splurge on something expensive or trendy, ask yourself how much that purchase is going to mean to you in a year. If the answer is not much, skip the purchase. In this way, you can try to limit your spending to things youll actually use.
When you channel your energy into saving, you have another opportunity to think long term. Look for slow and steady gains as opposed to high-risk, quick-win scenarios. If you really want to challenge yourself, consider the merits of scaling back. (Downsize Your Home To Downsize Expenses and The Disposable Society: An Expensive Place To Live.)
• Savers: Use Moderation
Ben Franklin once recommended moderation in all things. For a saver, this is particularly good advice. Dont let all of the fun parts of life pass you by just to save a few pennies.
Tune up your savings efforts too. Pinching pennies is not enough. While minimizing risk is any investors prime goal, minimizing risk while maximizing return is the key to investing success. (For more on how to do this in your portfolio, read Asset Allocation Strategies and Achieving Optimal Asset Allocation.)
• Shoppers: Dont Spend Money You Dont Have
A critical step for shoppers is to take control of their credit cards. Unchecked credit card interest can wreak havoc on your finances , so think before you spend - particularly if you need a credit card to make the purchase. (To learn more, read Take Control Of Your Credit Cards and Understanding Credit Card Interest.)
Try to focus your efforts on saving your money. Learn the philosophy behind successful savings plans and try to incorporate some of those philosophies into your own. If spending is something you use to compensate for other areas of your life that you feel are lacking, think about what these might be and work on changing them.
• Debtors: Start Investing
If you are a debtor, you need to get your finances in order and set up a plan to start investing. You may not be able to do it alone, so getting some help is probably a good idea. Deciding on who will guide your investments is an important choice, so choose any investment professional carefully. (To find out more, see Invest In Spite Of Debt.)
• Investors: Keep Up the Good Work
Congratulations! Financially speaking, you are doing great! Keep doing what you are doing, and continue to educate yourself. (To see if you are on track to achieve post-work bliss, read A Pre-Retirement Checkup.)
Knowledge is Power
While you may not be able to change your personality, you can acknowledge it and address the challenges that it presents. Managing your money involves self awareness; knowing where you stand will allow you to modify your behavior to achieve your desired outcome.
100 data points (or periods) on the daily chart is equal to the last 5 months of the weekly chart, which is shown by the data marked in the rectangle.
Feast thine eyes upon $CRNJF BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/CRNJF
Over-the-counter (OTC) or off-exchange trading is done directly between two parties, without any supervision of an exchange. It is contrasted with exchange trading, which occurs via these facilities. An exchange has the benefit of facilitating liquidity, mitigates all credit risk concerning the default of one party in the transaction, provides transparency, and maintains the current market price. In an OTC trade, the price is not necessarily made public information.
What Makes Investors Tick?
Comparing individual investors to institutional investors is like comparing apples to oranges. While any individual polled on the street may claim to act independently and make current investment decisions based solely on a long-term plan, it is rare to see this in practice. Individual investors differ from institutions in their investment horizons, how they define risk and how they behave in response to changes in the economy and investment markets. This does not mean that individual investors are any less successful than institutional ones at investing - just that their style of investing presents unique challenges.
Types of Investors
Many attempts have been made to categorize the characteristics of individual investors; the Bailard, Biehl and Kaiser (BB
Strengths of Fundamental Analysis
Long-term Trends
Fundamental analysis is good for long-term investments based on very long-term trends. The ability to identify and predict long-term economic, demographic, technological or consumer trends can benefit patient investors who pick the right industry groups or companies.
For thou convenience $BUKX BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/BUKX
Spreads are often the result of the amount of information available on a security. This information may come in the form of past trading data, news or company financials. If very little information is available on a security, spreads may be very large because the market maker does not want to be caught off guard by a better-informed investor.
After an extended advance from 27 to 64, WorldCom (WCOM)[WCOM] entered into a trading range between 55 and 63 for about 5 months. There was a false breakout in mid-June when the stock briefly poked its head above 62 (red oval). This did not last long and a gap down a few days later nullified the breakout (black arrow). The stock then proceeded to break support at 55 in Aug-99 and trade as low as 50. Here is another example of support turned resistance as the stock bounced off 55 two more times before heading lower. While this does not always happen, a return to the new resistance level offers a second chance for longs to get out and shorts to enter the fray.
Market Capitalization Defined
You often hear companies or different mutual funds being categorized as small cap, mid cap or large cap. But what do these terms really mean? The cap part of these terms is short for capitalization, which is a measure by which we can classify a companys size. Although the criteria for the different classifications are not strictly bound, it is important for investors to understand these terms, which are not only ubiquitous but also useful for gauging a companys size and riskiness.
Calculating Market Cap
Market capitalization is just a fancy name for a straightforward concept: it is the market value of a companys outstanding shares. This figure is found by taking the stock price and multiplying it by the total number of shares outstanding. For example, if Corys Tequila Corporation (CTC) was trading at $20 per share and had a million shares outstanding, then the market capitalization would be $20 million ($20 x 1 million shares). Its that simple.
Why Its Important
A common misconception is that the higher the stock price , the larger the company. Stock price, however, may misrepresent a companys actual worth. If we look at two fairly large companies, IBM (NYSE:IBM) and Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT), we see that at as of March 18, 2009stock prices were $91.75 and $16.75 respectively. Although IBMs stock price is higher, it has about 1.34 billion shares outstanding, while MSFT has 8.89 billion. As a result of this difference, we can see that MSFTs market cap of $148.91 billion is actually larger than IBMs $122.95 billion. If we compared the two companies by solely looking at their stock prices, we would not be comparing their true values, which are affected by the number of outstanding shares each company has.
The classification of companies into different caps also allows investors to gauge the growth versus risk potential. Historically, large caps have experienced slower growth with lower risk. Meanwhile, small caps have experienced higher growth potential, but with higher risk.
Different Types of Capitalization
While there isnt one set framework for defining the different market caps , here are the widely published standards for each capitalization:
• Mega cap - This group includes companies that have a market cap of $200 billion and greater. They are the largest publicly traded companies such as Exxon (NYSE:XOM). Not many companies will fit in this category, and those that do are typically the leaders of their industries.
• Big/large cap - These companies have a market cap between $10 billion to $200 billion. Many well-known companies fall into this category, including companies like Microsoft, Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and General Electric (NYSE:GE), and IBM. Typically, large-cap stocks are considered to be relatively stable and secure. Both mega and large cap stocks are often referred to as blue chips.
• Mid cap - Ranging from $2 billion to $10 billion, this group of companies is considered to be more volatile than the large- and mega-cap companies. Growth stocks represent a significant portion of the mid caps. Some of the companies might not be industry leaders, but they are well on their way to becoming one.
• Small cap - Typically new or relatively young companies, small caps have a market cap between $300 million to $2 billion. Although their track records wont be as lengthy as those of the mid to mega caps, small caps do present the possibility of greater capital appreciation - but at the cost of greater risk.
• Micro cap - Mainly consisting of penny stocks, this category denotes market capitalizations between $50 million to $300 million fall into this category. The upward potential of these companies is similar to the downside potential, so they do not offer the safest investment, and a great deal of research should be done before entering into such a position.
• Nano cap - Companies having market caps below $50 million are nano caps. These companies are the most risky, and the potential for gain is often relatively small. These stocks typically trade on the pink sheets or OTCBB
Remember, these ranges are not set in stone, and they are known to fluctuate depending on how the market as a whole is performing.
Conclusion
Understanding the market cap is not just important if youre investing directly in stocks. It is also useful for mutual fund investors, as many funds will list the average or median market capitalization of its holdings. As the name suggests, this gives the middle ground of the funds equity investments, letting investors know if the fund primarily invests in large-, mid- or small-cap stocks.
For thou convenience $BLSP BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/BLSP
The company was first established in 1913 as the National Quotation Bureau (NQB). For decades, the NQB reported quotations for both stocks and bonds, publishing the quotations in the paper-based Pink Sheets and Yellow Sheets respectively. The publications were named for the color of paper on which they were printed. In September 1999, the NQB introduced the real-time Electronic Quotation Service.
Candlestick Chart
Originating in Japan over 300 years ago, candlestick charts have become quite popular in recent years.
The Multiple Lives Of A Stock Trader
Whether they are working full- or part-time, traders are likely to experience multiple swings in their careers. Just like the markets they trade , they too will experience uptrends and downtrends in personal profits, and even the odd crash or windfall. But, over the long run, it is the trader who stays vigilant - who knows when to trade actively and when to sit on his hands - who stays in the game over the long run.
The phases a trader cycles through have different characteristics. By understanding the qualities of the market, the systems you are trading and how these might affect your personal profits, you can better adjust and hopefully minimize the effect of declining profits or losses. Psychologically, it can also help to know that almost all traders go through similar experiences, both good and bad. (If volatility and emotion are removed, passive, long-term investing comes out on top. Read Buy-And-Hold Investing Vs. Market Timing.)
The Trader Downtrend
This is very likely where most traders begin their careers. They have capital, they usually have some sort of game plan and they begin trading with full expectations of becoming wealthy from the financial markets. But alas, even though there may be a few early wins, capital often starts to deteriorate. The capital may even completely evaporate. Hopefully, many lessons are learned during this time and it can be viewed as a paid education. A trader can pay the market to learn - unfortunately, many fail to realize what the market is showing them. Instead, they get angry that the market is not going where they think it should go, or they berate themselves so much that they become crippled in making proper market analysis. (Trends are what allow traders and investors to capture profits. Find out whats behind them. Read 4 Factors That Shape Market Trends.)
Experienced traders likely went through this early education as well. Even as experienced traders, they will face times where losses seem to mount or profits are extremely hard to come by. During these times, it is the experienced traders, well, experience, that allows him or her to stay alive in the financial markets. Some do fall, however, and their former profits are distributed back to the markets. Understanding why this phenomenon occurs can help new and experienced traders avoid being wiped out, or as in the case of many, being wiped out again.
When profits are dwindling or losses are mounting, here are a few questions to ask:
• Is my trading plan complete? Does it account for all types of markets (uptrend, downtrend and flat)?
o A plan should account for all types of markets, even if that means the plan states not trading during certain times or conditions.
• Is my trading plan feasible based on current market conditions?
o Certain strategies will not work in certain market conditions. It is important to realize this and minimize trading until conditions become more favorable. A strategy that uses volatility will likely do poorly in dull markets and a breakout strategywill see more false signals in longer term, ranging markets.
• Are my position sizes exposing my capital to undue risk ?
o While risk tolerance varies, the higher the risk per trade, the less likely a trader is to last. Risking no more than 1-2% of capital on a given trade is a good rule of thumb.
• Have I been averaging down?
o There is no reason to add to a losing position. Risk is likely increasing when we average down, and it is increasing on a position that has not shown us what we expected.
• Have I been following my trading plan?
o Everything mentioned above should already be covered in the trading plan. If it is, then all you need to do is follow your plan. Remember why the rules were chosen in the first place, renew your commitment to them and take some time to re-analyze your plan and implement it.
The Trader Uptrend
Hopefully, most trader will get to experience an uptrend in their trading lives; it is the part where profits materialize and increase. In really good times, winning trades seem to come no matter what and the trader feels invincible. These are great times and should be enjoyed while they last. However, while it is easy to get caught up in the emotion of a winning streak, the trader must realize it will end. To maintain your edge, there are a few things to keep in mind and question while this good streak is going.
Why is my plan working so well right now? Can I adapt it to work better in other market conditions?
o It is possible the strategies employed meld well with the current financial climate, but is it possible these strategies could be adapted to other market environments to improve performance during those times as well?
• While good times should be taken advantage of, would an adverse market move wipe out a disproportionate amount of profits?
o During good times it is easy to take on more risk than is necessary. The feeling of invincibility can become a detriment if, when the streak finally ends, it wipes away all or a large portion of former profits. Keep risk in check, even in the good times.
• Are stops and trailing stop orders being used?
o Just because many trades have worked out recently does not mean you should abandon using stops. Always make sure risk is defined before each trade. Trailing stop orders will be beneficial to you if you have large, unrealized profits. By using a trailing stop, you will be able to realize at least some of the unrealized profits should the market turn.
Trade Actively or Sit on Your Hands
Many great traders have said that knowing when not to trade is what separates the winning traders from the losers. During a bull market, anyone can buy stocks and win, but it is the pro who knows when to back off and avoid losing those profits. This takes experience and, as we have learned, even the experienced traders get caught up, make mistakes and go through phases where they experience diminished profits or rising losses.
Thus, as outlined in the questions above, it is important to build a trading plan and trading psychology that uses the good times while not exposing oneself to financial detriment if the market turns, and also only trading when it is prudent to do so. Figuring this out can often be a simple and logical process. As an example, if the market is in an extremely tight range, even a day trader may not enter the market because the profits are too small relative to fees and risk. Therefore, at times it is better to sit on the sidelines and wait for opportunities to arise which allow traders a better chance to make significant profits.
Conclusion
It often appears that traders have many lives; some wipe out multiple accounts before finally getting it, while others experience large swings, never quite reaching the profits they want. Still others lose everything. No matter the case, trading is never a perfectly smooth vocation. By asking yourself pertinent questions and adhering to a well-prepared trading plan, many of the bumps can be avoided. For traders going through tough times, if a solid plan is implemented there is sunshine after the storm.
Behold the $HESG BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX
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Affinity fraud refers to investment scams that prey upon members of identifiable groups, such as religious or ethnic communities, the elderly, or professional groups. The fraudsters who promote affinity scams frequently are - or pretend to be - members of the group.
7 Investing Mistakes And How To Avoid Them
Making mistakes is part of the learning process. However, its all too often that plain old common sense separates a successful investor from a poor one. At the same time, nearly all investors, new or experienced, have fallen astray from common sense and made a mistake or two. Being perfect may be impossible, but knowing some of common investing errors can help deter you from going down the well-traveled, yet rocky, path of losses. Here are some of the most common investing mistakes.
SEE: How To Avoid Common Investing Problems
Using Too Much Margin
Margin is the use of borrowed money to purchase securities. Margin can help you make more money; however, it can also exaggerate your loses - a definite downside.
The absolute worst thing you can do as a new investor is become carried away with what seems like free money - if you use margin and your investment doesnt go your way, you end up with a large debt obligation for nothing. Ask yourself if you would buy stocks with your credit card. Of course you wouldnt. Using margin excessively is essentially the same thing (albeit likely at a lower interest rate).
Additionally, using margin requires you to monitor your positions much more closely because of the exaggerated gains and losses that accompany small movements in price. If you dont have the time or knowledge to keep a close eye on and make decisions about your positions and the positions drop, your brokerage firm will sell your stock to recover any losses you have accrued.
As a new investor, use margin sparingly, if at all. Use it only if you understand all its aspects and dangers. It can force you to sell all your positions at the bottom, the point at which you should be in the market for the big turnaround.
Buying On Unfounded Tips
We think everyone makes this mistake at one point or another in their investing career. You may hear your relatives or friends talking about a stock that they heard will get bought out, have killer earnings or soon release a groundbreaking new product. Even if these things are true, they do not necessarily mean that the stock truly is the next big thing and that you should run to the nearest phone to call your broker.
Other unfounded tips come from investment professionals on TV who often tout a specific stock as though its a must-buy, but really is nothing more than the flavor of the day. These stock tips often dont pan out and go straight down after you buy them. Remember, buying on media tips is often founded on nothing more than a speculative gamble.
Now this isnt to say that you should balk at every stock tip. If one really grabs your attention, the first thing to do is consider the source. The next thing is to do your own homework. Make sure you research, research and research so that you know what you are buying and why. Buying a tech stock with some proprietary technology should be based on whether its the right investment for you, not solely on what some mutual fund manager said on TV.
Next time youre tempted to buy a hot tip, dont do so until youve got all the facts and are comfortable with the company. Ideally, obtain a second opinion from other investors or unbiased financial advisors.
Day Trading
If you insist on becoming an active trader, think twice before day trading. Day trading is a dangerous game and should be attempted only by the most seasoned investors. In addition to investment savvy, a successful day trader needs access to special equipment that is rarely available to the average trader. Did you know that the average day-trading workstation (with software) can cost in the range of $50,000? Youll also need a similar amount of trading money to maintain an efficient day trading strategy.
The need for speed is the main reason you cant start day trading with simply the extra $5,000 in your bank account: online brokers do not have systems fast enough to service the true day trader, so quite literally the difference of pennies per share can make the difference between a profitable and losing trade. In fact, day trading is deemed such a difficult endeavor that most brokerages who offer day trading accounts require investors to take formal trading courses.
Unless you have the expertise, equipment and access to speedy order execution, think twice before day trading. If you arent particularly adept at dealing with risk and stress, there are much better options for an investor looking to build wealth.
Buying Stocks that Appear Cheap
This is a very common mistake, and those who commit it do so by comparing the current share price with the 52-week high of the stock. Many people using this gauge assume that a fallen share price represents a good buy. But the fact that a companys share price happened to be 30% higher last year will not help it earn more money this year. Thats why it pays to analyze why a stock has fallen.
Deteriorating fundamentals, a CEO resignation and increased competition are all possible reasons for the lower stock price - but they are also provide good reasons to suspect that the stock might not increase anytime soon. A company may be worth less now for fundamental reasons. It is important always to have a critical eye since a low share price might be a false buy signal.
Avoid buying stocks that simply look like a bargain. In many instances, there is a strong fundamental reason for a price decline. Do your homework and analyze a stocks outlook before you invest in it. You want to invest in companies which will experience sustained growth in the future.
Underestimating Your Abilities
Some investors tend to believe they can never excel at investing because stock market success is reserved for sophisticated investors. This perception has no truth at all. While any commission-based mutual fund salesmen will probably tell you otherwise, most professional money managers dont make the grade either - the vast majority underperform the broad market. With a little time devoted to learning and research, investors can become well equipped to control their own portfolio and investing decisions - and be profitable. Remember, much of investing is sticking to common sense and rationality.
Besides having the potential to become sufficiently skillful, individual investors do not face the liquidity challenges and overhead costs large institutional investors do. Any small investor with a sound investment strategy has just as good a chance of beating the market, if not better, than the so-called investment gurus.
Never underestimate your abilities or your own potential. That is, dont assume you are unable to successfully participate in the financial markets simply because you have a day job.
When Buying a Stock, Overlooking the Big Picture
For a long-term investor one of the most important - but often overlooked - things to do is qualitative analysis, or to look at the big picture. Fund manager and author Peter Lynch once stated that he found the best investments by looking at his childrens toys and the trends they would take on. Brand name is also very valuable. Think about how almost everyone in the world knows Coke; the financial value of the name alone is therefore measured in the billions of dollars. Whether its about iPods or Big Macs, no one can argue against real life.
So pouring over financial statements or attempting to identify buy and sell opportunities with complex technical analysis may work a great deal of the time, but if the world is changing against your company, sooner or later you will lose. After all, a typewriter company in the late 1980s could have outperformed any company in its industry, but once personal computers started to become commonplace, an investor in typewriters of that era would have done well to assess the bigger picture.
Assessing a company from a qualitative standpoint is as important as looking at the sales and earnings. Qualitative analysis is a strategy that is one of the easiest and most effective for evaluating a potential investment.
Compounding Your Losses by Averaging Down
Far too often investors fail to accept the simple fact that they are human and prone to making mistakes just as the greatest investors do. Whether you made a stock purchase in haste or one of your long-time big earners has suddenly taken a turn for the worse, the best thing you can do is accept it. The worst thing you can do is let your pride take priority over your pocketbook and hold on to a losing investment, or worse yet, buy more shares of the stock since it is much cheaper now.
Remember, a companys future operating performance has nothing to do with what price you happened to buy its shares at. Anytime there is a sharp decrease in your stocks price, try to determine the reasons for the change and assess whether the company is a good investment for the future. If not, do your pocketbook a favor and move your money into a company with better prospects.
Letting your pride get in the way of sound investment decisions is foolish and it can decimate your portfolios value in a short amount of time. Remain rational and act appropriately when you are inevitably confronted with a loss on what seemed like a rosy investment.
The Bottom Line
With the stock markets penchant for producing large gains (and losses) there is no shortage of faulty advice and irrational decisions. As an individual investor , the best thing you can do to pad your portfolio for the long term, is to implement a rational investment strategy you are comfortable with and willing to stick to. If you are looking to make a big win by betting your money on your gut feelings, try the casino. Take pride in your investment decisions and in the long run, your portfolio will grow to reflect the soundness of your actions.
BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX $FIND
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/FIND
Plain speak: In most cases, FINRA approval of Form 211 is required for new quotation on OTC Link or the OTC Bulletin Board.
Anomalies do exist and there are investors and traders that outperform the market.
5 Costs Of Financial Procrastination
As long-time procrastinators will attest, this deferral of something that needs to be done is rarely an isolated instance, and it usually occurs habitually and for trivial reasons.
Procrastination can have a number of undesirable consequences, such as missed deadlines, wasted opportunities and sub-standard work as a result of insufficient time. The costs of procrastination, while substantial, are not easy to quantify.
But what can be quantified – at least to some extent – are the costs associated with putting off decisions and actions when it comes to personal finances and investments. Beware of such financial procrastination, because the price tag of needless delay in this crucial area can be steep.
Five Costs of Financial Procrastination
Broadly speaking, we can classify the costs of financial procrastination in five main areas:
1. Delays in investing
2. Putting off routine investment decisions
3. Tardiness in organizing personal finances
4. Late filing of taxes
5. Procrastinating on major financial decisions
1. Investing Delays
Delays in putting your money to work through investments can eventually end up costing you a lot. Consider the case of two hypothetical investors, Ms. A. Lacrity and Mr. D. Lay, who begin investing $2,000 annually at ages 30 and 40 respectively in a tax-deferred account such as anindividual retirement account (IRA). Lets assume that the long-term average annual rate of return earned by both investors on their investments is 5%. By the time they turn 60, A. Lacritys IRA would have grown to about $132,878, twice the size of D. Lays IRA, as Table 1 shows.
Annual Rate of Return 5.00% 5.00%
Period (years) 30 20
Annual Investment $2,000 $2,000
Total Investment (I) $60,000 $40,000
Total Value (V) $132,878 $66,132
Growth (V – I) $72,878 $26,132
Cost Of Procrastination $26,746
Of course, the fact that A. Lacrity invested an additional $20,000 over 10 years accounts for part of the difference in the two portfolios . But a substantial part of the difference – or $26,746 – can also be attributed to the compounding effect of the $20,000 for the additional 10 years that A. Lacrity has been investing. Another way of looking at this from D. Lays viewpoint is that this $26,746 in incremental growth represents his cost of procrastination for the 10-year period (recall that he commenced investing at age 40, rather than at 30).
Two points need to be noted here:
• The higher the rate of return, the higher the cost of procrastination – According to Ibbotson Associates, the compound annualized return for the S
BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX $TLFX
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/TLFX
FINRA members must report their short interest positions in all OTC Equity Securities mid-month and end-of-month. Short interest reporting brings more transparency to the short selling activities by member firms, and reduces the possibility of manipulative behavior associated with naked short selling.
Is Your Investment Strategy Going Extinct?
Nothing lasts forever, including the effectiveness of some investment strategies. True, some basic ideas like buy the stocks of high-quality companies when theyre trading cheaply seem to operate with no expiration date, but other strategies seem to work only for a while, before reverting back to market-average or worse returns. Let us examine some of the strategies that may be on the way out. (Avoid taking premature profits or running losses by setting appropriate exit points, see A Look At Exit Strategies.)
TUTORIAL: Stock-Picking Strategies
The Safe Haven
Whenever the markets turn rough and some sector happens to go up (or go down less), investors and commentators are more than happy to anoint a new safe haven for investors. Gold has been a safe haven at many points in history. Bonds have been safe havens, as have dividend-paying stocks, utility stocks, consumer goods stocks and so on. (For related reading, see The Advantages Of Bonds.)
For example, healthcare was supposed to be a safe haven. Yet, during the recession in the late 2000s healthcare underperformed as pharmaceutical companies suffered from patent cliffs and medical device companies bore the brunt of lower patient visits and tight hospital capital budgets.
That, then, is the problem – every crisis is different, as is the optimal path through that crisis. Whats more, people often underestimate the importance of timing when it comes to picking a safe haven. If an investor has a firm conviction that Asset X is going to be a safe place to weather the next storm, he or she would do well to get in early so that the other investors piling in later push up the price. Likewise, getting out on time is important as well – once the danger passes and everybody wants out of the safe haven, prices can drop so quickly that those slow to leave end up holding the bag.
Arbitrage
Arbitrage investing is all about making dollars a few pennies at a time – trading on the small discrepancies in prices between exchanges or an announced deal and current valuations. Unfortunately, the increased liquidity and access to markets has largely eliminated these easy profits. Arbitrage is still possible, but it tends to only be profitable for traders with the infrastructure to make large trades at lightning speed. This is not something that can be handled by a friendly retail internet broker. (For related reading, see Trading The Odds With Arbitrage.)
Dogs of the Dow
The Dogs of the Dow offered a simple value-oriented approach to investing. Investors would choose from those stocks making up the Dow Jones Industrial Average, selecting for a portfolio on the basis of the highest dividend yields and lowest stock prices, with annual rebalancing. In theory, this offered up a portfolio of relatively undervalued large-cap companies that should outperform the market (based in large part on the assumption that those dividend yields should revert to the mean).
The evidence is mixed as to whether the Dogs of the Dow strategy ever worked as advertised; some academics have made the case that the advertised results were a product of data mining and not reproducible in practice. In any case, there have been several public attempts to implement the strategy and they have failed. Whether that failure is a product of the markets simply filling in a previously unknown gap or whether the strategy never worked at all is moot – the point is that it no longer seems to work. (For related reading, see Barking Up The Dogs Of The Dow Tree.)
Guru of the Month
From time to time an investment advisor pops up with a sure-fire strategy for making money in the market. Many of these approaches are outright scams, but some are sincere attempts to offer a combination of formulas and stock characteristics that seem to lead to market outperformance.
The problem with many guru approaches, the legitimate ones at least, is that they exploit an inefficiency in the market. Once enough people know about an inefficiency, it tends to disappear fairly quickly. In fact, if there is some combination of return on equity, margins and EV/EBITDA that spells investment success, investors will program computers to jump on those opportunities. Moreover, other investors who try to think one step ahead will anticipate stocks that will soon sport those characteristics to take advantage of the automated market jump these stocks can expect from the computer programs – and on it goes. With all of that buying activity, the stocks are soon revalued and the market-beating potential vanishes.
Deep Value Investing
It is probably inaccurate to describe deep value investing as going extinct; most likely the last specimens died in captivity long ago. After reading some of the seminal works of investment strategy, Benjamin Grahams Security Analysis and Intelligent Investor, it used to be possible to find stocks trading below the value of the net current assets on the balance sheet. Likewise, companies often held assets worth far in excess of their stated value and the market capitalization of the company. There were profitable trades to be made by finding these stocks and waiting for the market to realize the value. (For more on value investing, see The Value Investors Handbook.)
Now, though, the market moves much faster and information is both more easily available and available more quickly than before. As a result, companies with $1 per share of cash and a $0.50 stock price just do not stick around for long. Whats more, companies have gotten savvier about singing their own praises and maximizing the market value of both their assets and stocks.
Invest Your Age
There is a school of thought that holds that investors would do well to allocate their portfolio according to their age by matching their portfolio weighting to bonds to their age in years. In other words, a 30 year old investor should hold 30% of his or her assets in fixed income, while a 60 year old investor should have double that allocation.
Back in the days of pensions and defined-benefit retirement plans, maybe this wasnt such bad advice.
Nowadays, though, it seems like a dangerously over-conservative way to invest. Whats more, people are living longer than ever before but still retiring at basically the same age (around 65). That means that they need more money in their portfolio at the time of retirement, and must continue to earn good returns on that money throughout retirement or risk running out of money.
Though it is true that stocks are generally more volatile than fixed income investments, that volatility cuts both ways; it is relatively rare for long-term equity investors to underperform fixed income. Worse still, with the corrosive and often underreported impact of inflation on fixed income assets, over-allocation to fixed income can lead to a worker having too little money saved away for retirement. (For related reading, see Young Investors: What Are You Waiting For?)
Buy-and-Hold
Perhaps the most controversial idea is that buy-and-hold investing is dead. The idea here seems to be that markets are so quick and efficient in addressing undervaluation, there is simply no chance that a stock can be undervalued for years at a time and worth holding for the long haul.
This notion seems to have really gained currency in the wake of the tech bubble, and it is certainly possible to see a few points in its favor. After all, anybody who bought a tech stock like Cisco (Nasdaq:CSCO) or Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) during the bubble is still sitting on a loss. Likewise, anyone who bought and held a high-quality bank stock like US Bancorp (NYSE:USB) or M
Let's start to clarify things by looking at the efficient market hypothesis and see where the fundamentalists, technicians and random walkers stand on the question of market efficiency.
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Going All-In: Comparing Investing And Gambling
How many times during a discussion with friends about investing have you heard someone utter: Investing in the stock market is just like gambling at a casino? Is this adage really true? Lets examine these two activities more closely and see if we can point out some of the key differences and also some surprising similarities.
Investing and gambling both involve risk and choice. Interestingly, both the gambler and the investor must decide how much they want to risk. Some traders typically risk 2-5% of their capital base on any particular trade. Longer-term investors constantly hear the virtues of diversification across different asset classes. This, in essence, is a risk management strategy, and spreading your dollars across different investments will likely help minimize potential losses.
Gamblers must also carefully weigh the amount of capital they want to put in play. Pot odds are a way of assessing your risk capital versus your risk reward: the amount of money to call a bet compared to what is already in the pot. If the odds are favorable, the player is more likely to call the bet. Most professional gamblers are quite proficient at risk management. In both gambling and investing, a key principle is to minimize risk while maximizing profits.
Throwing It in the Pot
Sports betting is probably one of the most common gambling activities in which the average person engages. From the weekly football office pool to the Final Four, sport betting is an American tradition. Only by thinking about your betting habits will you realize that you have no way to limit your losses. If you pony up $10 a week for the NFL office pool and you dont win, you lose all of your capital. When betting on sports (or really any other pure gambling activity), there are no loss-mitigation strategies.
This is a key difference between investing and gambling. Stock investors and traders have a variety of options to prevent total loss of risked capital. Setting stop losses on your stock investment is a simple way to avoid undue risk. If your stock drops 10% below its purchase price, you have the opportunity to sell that stock to someone else and still retain 90% of your risk capital. However, if you bet $100 that the Jacksonville Jaguars will win the Super Bowl this year, you cannot get part of your money back if they just make it to the Super Bowl. Betting on sports is truly a speculative activity which prevents individuals from minimizing losses.
Another key difference between the two activities has to do with the concept of time. Gambling is a time-bound event while an investment in a company can last several years. With gambling, once the game or hand is over, your opportunity to profit from your wager has come and gone. You either have won or lost your capital. Stock investing , on the other hand, can be time-rewarding. Investors who purchase shares in companies that pay dividends are actually rewarded for their risked dollars. Companies pay you money regardless of what happens to your risk capital, as long as you hold on to their stock. Savvy investors realize that returns from dividends are a key component to making money in stocks over the long term.
Playing the Odds
Both stock investors and gamblers look for an edge in order to help enhance their performance. Good gamblers and great stock investors study behavior in some form or another. Gamblers playing poker typically look for cues from the other players at the table, and great poker players can remember what their opponents wagered 20 hands back. They also study the mannerisms and betting patterns of their opponents with the hope of gaining useful information. This information may be just enough to help predict future behavior. Similarly, some stock traders study trading patterns by interpreting stock charts. Stock market technicians try to leverage the charts to glean where the stock is going in the future. This area of study dedicated to analyzing charts is commonly referred to as technical analysis. (To learn more, see our Technical Analysis Tutorial.)
Another difference between investing and gambling is the availability of information. Information is a valuable commodity in the world of poker as well as stock investing. Stock and company information is readily available for public use. Company earnings, financial ratios and management teams can be studied before committing capital. Stock traders who make hundreds of transactions a day can use the days activities to help with future decisions. Nonetheless, stock information is far from perfect, otherwise, there would not be insider trading or the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
If you sit down at a Blackjack table in Las Vegas, you have no information about what happened an hour, a day or a week ago at that particular table. You may hear that the table is either hot or cold, but that information is not quantifiable.
Conclusion
The next time you hear someone say that stock investing is the same as playing in a casino, remind them that in fact there are some similarities and some major differences. Both activities involve risk of capital with hopes of future profit. Gambling is typically a short-lived activity, while stock investing can last a lifetime. Some companies actually pay you money in the form of dividends to go along with an ownership stake. In general, most average investors will do better investing in stocks over a lifetime than trying to win the World Series of Poker.
Weak-form: Fundamentalists
The weak-form of market efficiency theorizes that the current price does not reflect fair value and is only a reflection of past prices.
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Dissecting Declarations, Ex-Dividends And Record Dates
Have the workings of dividends and dividend distributions mystified you too? Chances are its not the concept of dividends that confuses you; the ex-dividend date and date of record are the tricky factors. In this article well sort through the dividend payment process and explain on what date the buyer of the stock gets to keep the dividend.
Before we explain how it all works, lets go over some of the basics to ensure we have the proper foundation to understand the more complex issues. Some investment terms are thrown around more often than Frisbees on a hot summer day, so its important that we define exactly what were talking about.
Different Types of Dividends
The decision to distribute a dividend is made by a companys board of directors. There is nothing requiring a company to pay a dividend, even if the company has paid dividends in the past. However, many investors view a steady dividend history as an important indicator of a good investment, so most companies are reluctant to reduce or stop their dividend payments. (For more information on buying dividend paying stocks , see the articles How Dividends Work for Investors and The Importance of Dividends.
Dividends can be paid in various different forms, but there are two major categories: cash and stock. The most popular are cash dividends. This is money paid to stockholders , normally out of the corporations current earnings or accumulated profits.
For example, suppose you own 100 shares of Corys Brewing Company (ticker: CBC). Cory has made record sales this year thanks to an unusually high demand for his unique peach flavored beer. The company therefore decides to share some of this good fortune with the stockholders and declares a dividend of $0.10 per share. This means that you will receive a check from Corys Brewing Company for $10.00 ($0.10*100). In practice, companies that pay dividends usually do so on a regular basis of four times a year. A one-time dividend such as the one we just described is referred to as an extra dividend.
The stock dividend, the second most common dividend paying method, pays additional shares rather than cash. Suppose that Corys Brewing Company wishes to issue a dividend but doesnt have the necessary cash available to pay everyone. He does, however, have enough Treasury stock to meet the requirements of the dividend payout. So instead of paying cash, Cory decides to issue a dividend of 0.05 new shares of CBC for every existing one. This means that you will receive five shares of CBC for every 100 shares that you own. If any fractional shares are left over, the dividend is paid as cash (because stocks cant trade fractionally).
Another type of dividend is the property dividend, but it is used rarely. This type of allocation is a physical transfer of a tangible asset from the company to the investors. For instance, if Corys Brewing Company was still insistent on paying out dividends but didnt have enough Treasury stock or enough money to pay out all investors, the company could look for something physical (property) to distribute. In this case, Cory might decide that his unique peach beer would be the best substitute, so he could distribute a couple of six-packs to all the shareholders.
The Important Dates of a Dividend
There are four major dates in the process of a company paying dividends:
• Declaration date - This is the date on which the board of directors announces to shareholders and the market as a whole that the company will pay a dividend.
• Ex-date or Ex-dividend date - On (or after) this date the security trades without its dividend. If you buy a dividend paying stock one day before the ex-dividend you will still get the dividend, but if you buy on the ex-dividend date, you wont get the dividend. Conversely, if you want to sell a stock and still receive a dividend that has been declared you need to sell on (or after) the ex-dividend day. The ex-date is the second business day before the date of record.
• Date of record - This is the date on which the company looks at its records to see who the shareholders of the company are. An investor must be listed as a holder of record to ensure the right of a dividend payout.
• Date of payment (payable date) - This is the date the company mails out the dividend to the holder of record. This date is generally a week or more after the date of record so that the company has sufficient time to ensure that it accurately pays all those who are entitled.
Why All These Dates?
Ex-dividend dates are used to make sure dividend checks go to the right people. In todays market, settlement of stocks is a T 3 process, which means that when you buy a stock , it takes three days from the transaction date (T) for the change to be entered into the companys record books.
As mentioned, if you are not in the companys record books on the date of record, you wont receive the dividend payment. To ensure that you are in the record books, you need to buy the stock at least three business days before the date of record, which also happens to be the day before the ex-dividend date.
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As you can see by the diagram above, if you buy on the ex-dividend date (Tuesday), which is only two business days before the date of record, you will not receive the dividend because your name will not appear in the companys record books until Friday. If you want to buy the stock and receive the dividend, you need to buy it on Monday. (When the stock is trading with the dividend the term cum dividend is used). But, if you want to sell the stock and still receive the dividend, you need to sell on or after Tuesday the 6th.
*Note: Different rules apply if the dividend is 25% or greater of the value of the security. In this case, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) indicates that the ex-date is the first business day following the payable date. For further details on dividend issues, search FINRAs website.
A Money Machine?
Now that we understand that a dividend can be received by purchasing the stock before the ex-date, can we make more money? Nope, its not that easy. Remember, everybody knows when the dividend is going to be paid, and the market sees the dividend payout as a time when the company is giving out a part of its profits (reducing its cash). So the price of the stock will drop approximately by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date. The word approximately is crucial here. Due to tax considerations and other happenings in the market, the actual drop in price may be slightly different. In any case, the point is that you cant make free profits on the ex-dividend date.
Conclusion
The reasons for and effects of all these dates are by no means easy to grasp. Its important to clear up any confusion between ex-dividend and record dates. But always keep in mind that when youre investing in a dividend paying stock, its more crucial to consider the quality of the company than the date on which you buy in.
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How Dividends Work For Investors
During the dotcom boom of the late 1990s, the notion of dividend investing was laughable. Back then, everything was going up in double-digit percentages, and nobody wanted to fool around with the meager 2-3% gain from dividends. After all, we were in the new economy: the rules had changed and companies that paid dividends were too old economy.
As Bob Dylan once sang, The times, they are a-changin. After the bull market of the 90s ended, the fickle mob once again found dividends attractive. For many investors, dividend-paying stocks have come to make a lot of sense. In this article, well explain what dividends are and how you can make them work for you. (For background reading, see The Power Of Dividend Growth.)
Background on Dividends
A dividend is a cash payment from a companys earnings; it is announced by a companys board of directors and distributed among stockholders. In other words, dividends are an investors share of a companys profits, given to him or her as a part-owner of the company. Aside fromoption strategies, dividends are the only way for investors to profit from ownership of stock without eliminating their stake in the company.
When a company earns profits from operations, management can do one of two things with the profits. It can choose to retain them - essentially reinvesting them into the company with the hope of creating more profits and thus further stock appreciation. The other alternative is to distribute a portion of the profits to shareholders in the form of dividends. (Management can also opt to repurchase some of its own shares - a move that would also benefit shareholders. Read more about it in The Lowdown on Stock Buybacks.)
A company must keep growing at an above-average pace to justify reinvesting in itself rather than paying a dividend. Generally speaking, when a companys growth slows, its stock wont climb as much, and dividends will be necessary to keep shareholders around. This growth slowdown happens to virtually all companies after they attain a large market capitalization. A company will simply reach a size at which it no longer has the potential to grow at annual rates of 30-40% like a small cap, regardless of how much money is plowed back into it. At a certain point, the law of large numbers makes a mega-cap company and growth rates that outperform the market an impossible combination.
The changes witnessed in Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) in 2003 are a perfect illustration of what can happen when a firms growth levels off. In January 2003, the company finally announced that it would pay a dividend: Microsoft had so much cash in the bank that it simply couldnt find enough worthwhile projects to spend it on - you cant be a high-flying growth stock forever!
The fact that Microsoft started to pay dividends did not signal the companys demise; it simply indicated that Microsoft had become a huge company and had entered a new stage in its life cycle, which meant it probably would not be able to double and triple at the pace it once did.
Dividends Wont Mislead You
By choosing to pay dividends, management is essentially conceding that profits from operations are better off being distributed to the shareholders than being put back into the company. In other words, management feels that reinvesting profits to achieve further growth will not offer the shareholder as high a return as a distribution in the form of dividends.
There is another motivation for a company to pay dividends: a steadily increasing dividend payout is viewed as a strong indication of a companys continuing success. The great thing about dividends is that they cant be faked. They are either paid or not paid, increased or not increased.
This isnt the case with earnings, which are basically an accountants best guess of a companys profitability. All too often, companies must restate their past reported earnings because of aggressive accounting practices, and this can cause considerable trouble for investors, who may have already based future stock price predictions on these (unreliable) historical earnings. (To learn more about evaluating earnings, read Earnings: Quality Means Everything.)
Expected growth rates are also unreliable. A company can talk a big game about wonderful growth opportunities that will pay off several years down the road, but there are no guarantees that it will make the most of its reinvested earnings. When a companys robust plans for the future (which impact its share price today) fail to materialize, your portfolio will very likely take a hit.
However, you can rest assured that no accountant can restate dividends and take back your dividend check. Moreover, dividends cant be squandered away by the company on business expansions that dont pan out. The dividends you receive from your stocks are 100% yours. You can use them to do anything you like: pay down your mortgage, spend it as discretionary income or buy the stock of a company you think has better growth prospects.
Who Determines Dividend Policy?
The companys board of directors decides what percentage of earnings will be paid out to shareholders, and then puts the remaining profits back into the company. Although dividends are usually dispersed quarterly, it is important to remember that the company is not obligated to pay a dividend every single quarter. In fact, the company can stop paying a dividend at any time, but this is rare, especially for a firm with a long history of dividend payments. (To learn more about this problem, read Is Your Dividend At Risk?)
If people were used to getting their quarterly dividends from a mature company, a sudden stop in payments to investors would be akin to corporate financial suicide. Unless the decision to discontinue dividend payments was backed by some kind of strategy shift, say investing all retained earnings into robust expansion projects, it would indicate that something was fundamentally wrong with the company. For this reason, the board of directors will usually go to great lengths to keep paying at least the same dividend amount.
How Stocks That Pay Dividends Resemble Bonds
When assessing the pros and cons of dividend-paying stocks, you will also want to consider their volatility and share price performance as compared to those of outright growth stocks that pay no dividends.
Because public companies generally face adverse reactions from the marketplace if they discontinue or reduce their dividend payments, investors can be reasonably certain they will receive dividend income on a regular basis for as long as they hold their shares. Therefore, investors tend to rely on dividends in much the same way that they rely on interest payments from corporate bonds and debentures.
Since they can be regarded as quasi-bonds, dividend-paying stocks tend to exhibit pricing characteristics that are moderately different from those of growth stocks. This is because they provide regular income, similar to a bond, but still provide investors with the potential to benefit from share price appreciation if the company does well.
Investors looking for exposure to the growth potential of the equity market, combined with the safety of the (moderately) fixed income provided by dividends, should consider adding stocks with high dividend yields to their portfolio. A portfolio with dividend-paying stocks is likely to see less price volatility than a growth stock portfolio. (This is why dividends are often considered to be a good recessionary investment. Read Dividend Yield For The Downturn to learn more.)
Conclusion
A company cant keep growing forever. When it reaches a certain size and exhausts its growth potential, distributing dividends is perhaps the best way for management to ensure that shareholders receive a return from the companys earnings. A dividend announcement may be a sign that a companys growth has slowed, but it is also evidence of a sustainable capacity to make money. This sustainable income will likely produce some price stability when paid out regularly as dividends. Best of all, the cash in your hand is proof that the earnings are really there, and you can reinvest or spend them as you see fit.
When the economy expands, most industry groups and companies benefit and grow. When the economy declines, most sectors and companies usually suffer.
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Wars Influence On Wall Street
The world of business has always been a harsh, survival-of-the-fittest environment. Like any realm in which there is competition and the threat of losses, the investing world is rife with conflict. So it is not surprising to see so many military terms creeping into the vocabulary of everyday investors or TV analysts. Take a look at the war-related terms that have invaded the corporate ranks.
Scorched Earth
In 1812, Czar Alexander Romanov decimated the French army that Napoleon led against Russia - even though the French had superior numbers, tactics, quality of soldiers, munitions and everything else youd put on your guaranteed-victory checklist. So how did one of the greatest military minds of all time lose in such a horrendous fashion? The simple answer is the Czars scorched-earth policy: as the Russian army retreated, they burned every shelter, animal and plant that would catch fire, effectively leaving the French army without any found supplies to sustain them through a Russian winter. Napoleons previous campaigns relied heavily on the spoils of war to replenish the troops, so he was utterly unprepared for an adversary who would rather destroy his own kingdom than let another take it.
Scorched earth continues to be a terrifying strategy for aggressors to face. In business mergers and acquisitions, not every takeover is welcome. In order to scare off a hostile firm, the target firm will liquidate all its desirable assets and acquire liabilities. However, this approach can prove to be a suicide pill because, even if it is successful, the company must try to reassemble itself or go down in the flames of a self-inflicted fire. (For more on hostile takeover situaitons, read Corporate Takeover Defense: A Shareholders Perspective.)
Blitzkrieg Tender Offer
In the first two years of the World War II, Nazi Germany crushed its opponents all over Europe by means of the Blitzkrieg or lightning war strategy, a set of tightly focused military maneuvers of overwhelming force. Striking with tanks, artillery and planes in one area, the Nazis defeated Frances supposedly impenetrable Maginot Line, which was still accustomed to the traditional front-based warfare.
The Blitzkrieg strategy used in corporate takeovers is a slight departure from the German warfare of the 1940s. A Blitzkrieg tender offer is an overwhelmingly attractive offer a takeover firm makes to a target firm. The offer is designed to be so attractive that objections are few or non-existent, allowing an extremely quick completion of the takeover. This tender offers allusion to the World War II is based only upon the speed of the conquest; there was nothing alluring or attractive about the Nazis Blitzkrieg.
Dawn Raid
When organized warfare and the military were considered gentlemans affairs, a declaration of war, a location and a time would be issued to the adversary. Raids and guerilla warfare were the arenas of savages and rebels, not the tactics of a self-respecting army. However, the American Civil War, the two World Wars, the Vietnam War and the improvement of weaponry obliterated the old code of warfare, and made it commonplace to attack at any time - including dawn, when sleep is still thick in the enemys eyes. Because at day break the level of preparedness is lower, the dawn raid maximized enemy casualties and so became a standard military practice. This logic has carried over to the corporate sector.
A dawn raid in the investing world occurs when a firm (or investor) purchases a large portion of shares in a target firm at the opening of the market. A stock broker for the hostile firm helps the firm build up a substantial stake (and maybe a controlling interest) in the unsuspecting target. The hostile firm significantly lowers its takeover costs by already holding a big chunk of its prey. Because the process is initiated through a brokerage and at the market opening, the target firm doesnt figure out whats going on until its too late. Even though only 15% of a firms stock can be captured in a dawn raid, this percentage is often enough for a controlling interest. (When an individual investor decides to do this, he or she is referred to as a raider.)
A dawn raid is sneakier and more effective than a formal bid in most cases, but it may lead to resentment from the target firm. Unlike the dawn raid in war, the dawn raid of the corporate world makes the people you just attacked before their morning coffee not just your defeated enemies but now a part of your own army, meaning dissent may soon brew in the ranks.
Capitulation
Capitulation is a term that finds its roots in the Medieval Latin word capitulare which means to draw up terms in chapters. Since the 1600s, however, capitulate has been synonymous with surrender, or defeat, usually military defeat. In the stock market , capitulation refers to the surrendering of any previous gains in stock price by selling equities in an effort to get out of the market and into less risky investments. True capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines, which are indicative of panic selling. After capitulation selling, many people believe the market place essentially becomes a bargain store because everyone who wanted out of a stock, for whatever reason (including forced selling due to margin calls), has sold. It follows logically (but only in theory) that the stock price should reverse or bounce off the lows. Simply put, some investors believe that true capitulation is the sign of a bottom. (To learn more, check out Panic Selling - Capitulation Or Crash?)
War Chest and War Bonds
The gathering of a war chest has been around as long as war. Emperors and kings would begin to amass tithes and taxes long before declaring war, presumably placing the funds in a chest (maybe labeled with a note to attack the Dutch or something). The reason for this hoarding was that experienced warriors cost money: mercenaries made up the bulk of the leadership, and peasants, who were conscripted, provided the cannon fodder.
This tradition of saving up to wage war, either aggressively or defensively, has continued on into the modern world of corporate warfare. Simply put, a war chest refers to the funds a company uses to initiate or defend itself against takeovers.
Rather than pulling out of already stretched budgets, the governments of some countries (U.S. included) use war bonds to raise a war chest. War bonds are government-issued debt, and the proceeds from the bonds are used to finance military operations. War bonds essentially fund a war chest that is voluntarily filled by the public. The appeal for these bonds is purely patriotic as they generally offer a return lower than the market rate. Basically, buying a war bond is supposed to make citizens feel like they are doing their part to support the troops - in the World War II, these bonds were hyped by sentimental persuasion and depictions of the evils of the enemy.
War Babies
War babies are quite common all over the world. Children are classified as war babies if they satisfy one or both of the following:
1. They were born or raised during an invasion of their country.
2. They were fathered by foreign soldiers. This was extremely common in Vietnam. In fact, there are still war babies attempting to gain U.S. citizenship.
In contrast, the war babies of the investing world are the companies that enjoy a jump in stock prices during or before a war (traditionally a time of decline for the market). These companies are usually defense contractors who build munitions, aircraft, artillery, tanks, etc. Although these companies arent the bastard children of foreign soldiers, people usually do avoid claiming war babies in times of peace.
Conclusion
Thats that for the military parade down Wall Street . Military terms have crept into many vocabularies and the fiercly competitive realm of finance is no exception.
On most stock charts, volume bars are displayed at the bottom. With this historical picture, it is easy to identify the following:
Reactions prior to and after important events.
Past and present volatility.
Historical volume or trading levels.
Relative strength of a stock versus the overall market.
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Diversifying Your Portfolio With Real Estate And Infrastructure
Real estate is undoubtedly a significant element of asset allocation, and should form a component of any institutional or personal investment portfolio. Also increasing in importance is infrastructure, which has similar advantages to real estate. Based on research at the University of Regensburg in Germany, this article will consider some of the main asset allocation issues in this context.
Both real estate and infrastructure constitute attractive investments for risk-averse investors, especially during bear markets. There are similarities and differences between the two, and you can construct a truly optimal portfolio by fully exploiting them. (For more on optimizing portfolios, see Achieving Optimal Asset Allocation.)
Diversification Through Real Estate and Infrastructure
The diversification benefits of direct and indirect real estate investments are well known, and diversifications role in institutional portfolios has been investigated extensively. The different correlations to those of stocks and bonds are extremely helpful for avoiding portfolio volatility.
In the U.S., there is a huge need to invest in and improve the infrastructure in many respects, so there is plenty of potential in the market. Pretty much all investors should take advantage of this potential to diversify more effectively than ever and in an extremely promising sector.
In the past, infrastructure has received relatively less attention, along with other alternative assets such as commodities and private equity. There has been a move away from the old-school conventional portfolios comprising equities, bonds, cash and real estate.
The allocation to real estate in particular could be affected if alternative investments significantly diversify returns from conventional investments. In fact, infrastructure has become a focus of attention and found its way into institutional portfolios, and to a lesser extent, private ones. (For more on asset allocation, see Five Things To Know About Asset Allocation.)
What makes infrastructure so appealing is that it seems quite similar to direct real estate in terms of big lot sizes and illiquidity, but also offers general stability and stable cash flows. The research on infrastructure lags behind that of real estate, and Tobias Dechant and Konrad Finkenzeller from Regensberg have attempted to bridge this gap.
Portfolio Optimization with Real Estate and Infrastructure
This research project, and earlier work in the field, demonstrates that direct infrastructure is an important element of portfolio diversification, and that firms tend to overallocate to real estate if they do not also invest in infrastructure. This is an important finding given that infrastructure is really helpful for risk-averse investors - especially in equity market downturns.
There is considerable variation in the recommended, relative amounts that should be invested in these two asset classes, The range extends from zero to as high as 70% (mainly in real estate), depending on the time frame, state of the markets and the methods used to derive the optimum.
The maximum total amount usually recommended for real estate and infrastructure allocations is about 25%, which is considerably higher than actual institutional allocations. It is important to note that efficient allocations in practice depend on numerous factors and parameters, and no specific mix proves to consistently superior. (For related reading, see Asset Allocation: The First Step Towards Profit.)
The blend of real estate and infrastructure is also controversial, but one study by Terhaar et al. (2003), for instance, suggests an even split. Some experts believe that about 5% is sufficient for each. In crisis periods, this can be three or even four times higher.
Another important finding is that real estate and infrastructure may be more useful in terms of diversification than through actual returns. Given the controversy on effective asset allocation and the turbulence in real estate markets, this is a major issue. The latter highlights the benefits of using not only real estate, but also infrastructure.
Also significant is the revelation that the targeted rate of return impacts on the appropriate level of real estate. Investors with higher portfolio return targets (who wish to earn more, but with more risk), may wish to devote less to real estate and infrastructure. This depends a lot on the state of these markets in relation to the equity markets in terms of whether the latter is in an upward or downward phase. (Asset allocation takes care of nearly 94% of your portfolios investment profile. For more, see Asset Allocation: One Decision To Rule Them All.)
The exact allocations to real estate and infrastructure depend on various parameters. Apart from the expected rate of portfolio return mentioned above, there is also the issue of how risk is defined. Other relevant factors include attitudes towards infrastructure in general, and how this relates to other alternative investments. In practice, these allocation decisions are complex, and higher or lower optima are therefore possible for different investors at different times.
Conclusions
If there is one thing that remains the top priority for all investors its having a well diversified portfolio. There is simply no substitute for this, but there is a lot of untapped potential in the market. Real estate investment, but also infrastructure, can play a vital role in optimizing portfolios. This mainly pertains to institutions, but also for private investors. Private investors can generally benefit from more diversification.
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