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What Are The Odds Of Scoring A Winning Trade?
When many of us think of probabilities, the first thing that comes to mind is a coin toss - having a 50% chance at being right on a given toss. Can something as simple as a coin toss be applied to the market effectively? It can at least provide us with some tools for approaching the markets, and it can be applied in many more ways than one might expect. A traders current views of probability could be completely wrong, and could very well be why they are not making money in the markets. This article is an introduction to the probabilities of trading and to a commonly overlooked but integral part of the financial system - statistics. But dont be scared off by the word statistics; everything will be explained in plain English and without many numbers or formulas.
Understanding the Coin Toss
In the short term, anything can happen; this is why the coin toss is an appropriate analogy for the stock market . Lets assume that at a given moment in time the stock could just as easily move up as it could move down (even in a range, stocks move up and down), thus our probability of making a profit (whether short or long) on a position is 50%.
While hopefully no one would make completely random short-term trades, we will start with this scenario. If we a have an equal probability of making a quick profit (like a coin toss), does a run of profits or losses signal what future outcomes will be? No! Not on random trades. This is a common misconception. Each event still has a 50% probability, no matter what outcomes came prior.
Runs do happen in random 50/50 events. A run refers to a number of identical outcomes that occur in a row. Here is a table displaying the probabilities of such a run; in other words, the odds of flipping a given number of heads or tails in a row.
Run Length
Chance
1
50%
2
25%
3
12.5%
4
6.25%
5
3.125%
6
1.5625%
Here is where we run into problems. Lets say we have just made five profitable trades in a row. According to our table, which is giving us the probability of being right (or wrong) five times in a row based on a 50% chance, we have already overcome some serious odds. The odds of getting the sixth profitable trade looks extremely remote, but actually that is not the case. Our odds of success are still 50%! People lose thousands of dollars in the markets (and in casinos) by failing to realize this. The reason is that the odds from our table are based on uncertain future events and the likelihood they will occur. Once we have completed a run of five successful trades, those trades are no longer uncertain. Our next trade starts a new potential run, and after the results are in for each trade, we start back at the top the table, every time. This means every trade has a 50% of working out. (Learn how to illustrate an asset returns sensitivity read Find The Right Fit With Probability Distributions.)
The reason this is so important is that often, when traders get into the market, they mistake a string of profits or losses as either skill or lack of skill. This is simply not true. Whether a short-term trader makes multiple trades or an investor makes only a few trades a year, we need to analyze the outcomes of their trades in a different way to understand if they are simply lucky or if there is actual skill involved. Statistics apply on all time lines, and this is what we must remember.
Long-Term Results
The above example gave a short-term trade example based on a 50% chance of being right or wrong. But does this apply to the long term? Very much so. The reason is that even though a trader may only take long-term positions, he or she will be doing fewer trades and thus it will take longer to attain data from enough trades to see if simple luck is involved or if it was skill. A short-term trader may make 30 trades a week and show a profit every month for two years. Has this trader overcome the odds with real skill? It would seem so, as the odds of having a run of 24 profitable months is extremely rare unless the odds have shifted more in his favor somehow. (Find out if mutual fund managers can successfully pick stocks or if youre better off with an index fund. Read Is Stock Picking A Myth?)
Now what about a long-term investor who has made three trades over the last two years and has been profitable. Is this trader exhibiting skill? Not necessarily. Currently, this trader has a run of three going, and that is not difficult to accomplish even from totally random results. The lesson here is that skill is not just reflected in the short term (whether that is one day or one year, it will differ by trading strategy ), but will also be reflected in the long term. We need enough trade data to accurately determine whether a strategy is significant enough to overcome random probabilities. And even with this, we face another challenge: while each trade is an event, so is a month and year in which trades were placed.
A trader who placed 30 trades a week has overcome the daily odds and the monthly odds for a good number of periods. Ideally, proving the strategy over a few more years would erase all doubt that there was luck involved due to a certain market condition . For our long-term trader making trades that last more than a year, it will take at least several more years to prove that his strategy is profitable over this longer time frame and in all market conditions.
When we consider all time frames and all market conditions, we actually begin to see how to be profitable on all time frames and how to move the odds more in our, attaining greater than a random 50% chance of being right. It is worth noting that if profits are larger than losses, a trader can be right less than 50% of the time and still make a profit. (This phenomenon can cause a trader to abandon a proven strategy or risk everything on chance. Find out how to avoid it, check out Random Reinforcement: Why Most Traders Fail.)
How Profitable Traders Make Money
So, obviously people do make money in the markets, and its not just because they have had a good run. So how do we get the odds in our favor? The profitable results come from two concepts. The first concept is based on what was discussed above - being profitable in all time frames or at least winning more in certain periods than is lost in others.
The second concept is the fact that trends exist in the markets, and this no longer makes the markets a 50/50 gamble, as in our coin toss example. Stock prices tend to run in a certain direction over periods of time, and have done this repeatedly over market history. For those of you who understand statistics, this proves that runs (trends) in stocks occur and thus we end up with a probability curve that is not normal (remember that bell curve your teachers always talked about) but is skewed and commonly referred to as a curve with a fat tail. This means that traders can be profitable on a consistent basis if they use trends, even if it is on an extremely short time frame.
Bringing It All Together
If trends exist and thus we can no longer have a random sampling of data (trades) because there is a bias in those trades that will likely reflect a trend, why is the 50% chance example above useful? The reason is that the lessons are still very valid. A trader should not increase his or her position size or take on more risk (relative to position size) simply because of a string of wins, which should not be assumed to occur as a result of skill. It also means that a trader should not decrease position size after having a long profitable run. (Find out if taking the path less traveled will work in your favor - or against it, see Trading Systems: Run With The Herd Or Be A Lone Wolf?)
This information should be good news. New traders can take solace in the fact their researched trading system may not be faulty but rather is experiencing a random run of bad results (or it may still need some refining). It also should put pressure on those who have been profitable to continually monitor their strategies so they remain profitable.
This information can also aid investors when they are analyzing mutual funds or hedge funds. Trading results are often published showing spectacular returns; knowing a little more about statistics can help us gauge whether those returns are likely to continue or if the returns just happened to be a random event. (From picking the right type of stock to setting stop-losses, learn how to trade wisely
Economic Forecast
First and foremost in a top-down approach would be an overall evaluation of the general economy. The economy is like the tide and the various industry groups and individual companies are like boats.
Investors must define the order they wish the broker-dealer to execute. There are two main order types: the Limit Order and the Market Order.
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The Pitfalls Of Diversification
Diversification is a prominent investment tenet known by average and sophisticated investors alike. Diversification means putting your proverbial eggs into more than one basket. Proponents of this method recommend diversification within a portfolio or across various types of investments. The assumption is that diversification helps mitigate the risk of multiple investments decreasing all at once, or that relatively better performing assets will at least offset the losses. There is some truth to this approach, but there is another side to this coin. Investors should also be asking how diversification affects their portfolios performance. In other words, is diversification all that its cracked up to be? This article will examine some of the pitfalls of over-diversifying your portfolio and possibly debunk some misconceptions along the way.
SEE: Top 4 Signs Of Over-Diversification
Expenses
Having and maintaining a truly diversified portfolio can be more expensive than a more concentrated one. Regardless of whether an investor is diversified across various assets, such as real estate, stocks , bonds or alternative investments (such as art), expenses will likely rise simply based on the actual number of investments. Every asset class will probably require some expense that will be incurred on a transactional basis. Real estate brokers, art dealers and stockbrokers all will take a portion of your diversified portfolio. An average investor may have a mix of 20 or so stock and bond funds. It is likely that your financial advisor is recommending certain fund families across investable sectors.
In many cases, these funds are expensive and may carry a sales and/or redemption charge. These expenses cut into your returns and you will not get a refund based on relative underperformance. If diversification is a must-have strategy for your investable assets, then consider minimizing maintenance and transaction costs. Doing this is critical to preserving your return performance. For example, pick mutual funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs) with expense ratios less than 1% and pay a load for investing your hard-earned dollars. Also, negotiate commissions on large purchases, such as real estate.
Balancing
Many investors may incorrectly assume that having a diversified portfolio means they can be less active with their investments. The idea here is that having a basket of funds or assets enables a more laissez-faire approach, since risk is being managed through diversification. This can be true, but isnt always the case. Having a diversified portfolio may mean that you have to be more involved in and/or knowledgeable about, your investment choices. Most portfolios across or within an asset class will likely require rebalancing. In laymans terms, you have to decide how to reallocate your already invested dollars. Rebalancing may be required due to many reasons, including, but not limited to, changing economic conditions (recession), relative outperformance of one investment versus another or because of your financial advisors recommendation.
Many investors with over 20 funds or multiple asset classes now will likely face a choice of picking a sector or asset class and funds that they are simply unfamiliar with. Investors may be advised to delve into commodities or real estate without real knowledge of either. Investors now face decisions on how to rebalance and what investments are most appropriate. This can quickly become quite a daunting task unless you are armed with the right information to make an intelligent decision. One of the assumed benefits of being diversified may actually become one of its biggest hassles.
Underperformance
Perhaps the greatest risk of having a truly diversified portfolio is the underperformance that may occur. Great investment returns require choosing the right investments at the correct time and having the courage to put a large portion of your investable funds toward them. If you think about it, how many people do you know have talked about their annual return on their 20 stock and bond mutual funds ? However, many people can recall what they bought and sold Cisco Systems for in the late 1990s. Some people can also remember how they invested heavily in bonds during the real estate collapse and ensuing Great Recession in the mid to late 2000s.
There have been several investing themes over the last few decades that have returned tremendous profits: real estate, bonds, technology stocks, oil and gold are just some examples. Investors with a diverse mix of these assets did reap some of the rewards, but those returns were limited by diversification. The point is that a concentrated portfolio can generate outsized investing returns. Some of these returns can be life changing. Of course, you have to be willing to work diligently to find the best assets and the best investments within those assets. Investors can leverage Investopedia.com and other financial sites to help in their research to find the best of the best.
SEE: 4 Steps To Building A Profitable Portfolio
The Bottom Line
At the end of the day, having a diversified portfolio, perhaps one managed by a professional, may make sense for many people. However, investor beware, this approach is not without specific risks, such as higher overall costs, more accounting for and tracking of investments, and most importantly, potential risk of significant underperformance. Having a concentrated portfolio may mean more risk, but it also means having the greatest return potential. This may mean owning all stocks when pundits and professionals say owning bonds is preferred (or vice versa). It could mean you stay 100% in cash when everyone else is buying the market hand over fist. Of course, common sense cannot be ignored: no one should blindly go all-in on any investment without understanding its potential risks. Hopefully, one can recognize that having a diversified portfolio is not without risks of its own.
Wall Street has scores of analysts, strategists and portfolio managers hired to do one thing: beat the market.
OTC trading, as well as exchange trading, occurs with commodities, financial instruments (including stocks), and derivatives of such. Products traded on the exchange must be well standardized. This means that exchanged deliverables match a narrow range of quantity, quality, and identity which is defined by the exchange and identical to all transactions of that product. This is necessary for there to be transparency in trading.
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Once broker-dealers accept an offer to trade through OTC Link or through another means of communication, they must report, clear, and settle the trade. Part of this process is the confirmation of the trade with the investor; however, the trade will not be complete until final settlement (the delivery of funds by the buyer and securities by the seller), which, for equity securities is generally three business days after the trade date (T 3).
9 Tips For Safeguarding Your Accounts
Wisely managing your investments includes taking advantage of all possible protections. While you may already be aware of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insurance for your bank-deposited funds, there are other ways to divide up your funds, lower your potential risk of loss and guarantee your moneys safety. Read on for some ways to keep your money safe that you may want to consider in a bear market. (For background reading, see Are Your Bank Deposits Insured?)
No. 1: Use a brokerage account to invest in brokered CDs.
By opening an account with a brokerage firm you can invest in brokered CDs. These are typically CDs with large denominations, which are issued by banks to brokerage firms for their customers investments. Brokers pool investors funds to purchase the CDs, enabling investors to get a share in larger CDs (with potentially higher interest rates) than what they would be able to access by investing on their own. Brokered CDs also allow investors to buy multiple CDs issued by different banks and qualify for FDIC coverage for each CD held.
Before investing in brokered CDs be sure that:
• You understand the terms and features of each CD you invest in
• The bank offering the CD is an FDIC-insured bank
• You dont invest in a CD offered by a bank where you already hold accounts (because you may inadvertently exceed the FDIC insured limit)
• You get documentation of your ownership (or partial ownership) of the CD from your broker (i.e. a copy of the CDs title) to ensure that you qualify as a depositor for the FDIC coverage. (To learn more, read Are Your Bank Deposits Insured?)
No. 2: Bank with a credit union that carries private excess share insurance.
Some credit unions that are members of the National Credit Union Association (NCUA) carry excess share insurance to provide members with additional coverage for their deposit accounts. (To read more about credit unions, see Tired Of Banks? Try A Credit Union and Choose To Beat The Bank.)
No. 3: Open an account with a DIF- or SIF-insured bank.
The Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) is a private company headquartered in Massachusetts that provides insurance on deposit accounts for participating state-chartered savings banks. The Share Insurance Fund (SIF) is also a private fund that insures deposit accounts for Massachusetts-chartered co-operative banks. DIF and SIF member banks guarantee depositors funds above the FDIC limit, regardless of both the FDIC limit and the amount of money held by the depositor. All deposit account types are guaranteed, including savings and checking accounts, CDs, money market and retirement deposit accounts. By providing both FDIC insurance and DIF or SIF insurance, member banks can guarantee that their depositors funds are fully insured. Once you open a deposit account with a DIF or SIF member bank, there are no additional qualification tests to meet or forms to complete. In addition, you do not need to be a Massachusetts residents to do business with a DIF or SIF member bank.
No. 4: Invest in CDs with a CDARS network member institution.
When you invest at least $10,000 in a CD with a Certificate of Deposit Account Registry Service (CDARS) member bank, you can get up to $50 million in FDIC insurance. Thats because a CDARS bank can take your large deposit, divide it up into smaller denominations and invest in multiple CDs across the network of member banks, ensuring that you qualify for FDIC insurance protection with each investment at each member bank. By using a CDARS network member bank, you can secure one interest rate on multiple CD investments and choose the maturities that best suit your investment goals. You pay an annual fee for the service and receive one statement summarizing all of your CD investments. (For related reading, see Are CDs Good Protection For The Bear Market?)
Access to top-notch futures studies at no extra cost. Thinkorswim from TD Ameritrade.
No. 5: Open an MMAX money market account.
The Institutional Deposits Corporation (IDC) offers the Money Market Account Xtra (MMAX) through its network of participating community banks nationwide to depositors looking for additional FDIC insurance. When you open an MMAX Account, your participating IDC bank uses its relationship with other participating IDC network members to guarantee FDIC insurance for your total account balance up to $5 million. You are limited to making six withdrawals from your MMAX account monthly.
No. 6: Research your broker and brokerage firm.
While you are responsible for making and approving decisions related to your investments, its important to know your brokers, and his or her firms, record to avoid becoming a potential victim of fraud. You should check into whether your broker is properly licensed and registered and that he or she has not been the subject of investor complaints or investigation. (To learn more, read Broker Gone Bad? What To Do If You Have A Complaint and Evaluating Your Broker.)
No. 7: Check for SIPC Protection.
Check to make sure your brokerage accounts are protected by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). SIPC guarantees up to $500,000 of your invested funds (up to $100,000 in cash) in the event that your stocks or securities are stolen by a dishonest broker or the firm holding your investments fails and your assets are found missing. (To learn more, read Are My Investments Insured Against Loss?)
No. 8: Know your investment time horizon.
Make sure that money you will need in the short-term is invested in low-risk vehicles such as CDs, T-bills and bonds or bond funds. The closer you are to the time when you will need to access your funds, the less risk you can afford to take that you might lose your principal. (For more insight, read Personalizing Risk Tolerance.)
No. 9: Keep good records of all your investment transactions.
If you are concerned that you may be a victim of fraud or if you are simply concerned that there may be inaccurate information on your investment accounts, you will need copies of your account activity to rectify the error(s), file a complaint or take legal action. (To learn more about personal responsibility in the investing process, read Are You A Good Client?)
Conclusion
Investing is never risk-free, but there are ways to reduce your risk and gain additional insurance coverage for your funds. Take the time to protect your funds and your peace of mind by checking out options available beyond FDIC bank deposit insurance.
Learn what the ratings mean and the track record of an analyst before jumping off the deep end. Corporate statements and press releases offer good information, but they should be read with a healthy degree of skepticism to separate the facts from the spin.
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Over-the-counter (OTC) or off-exchange trading is done directly between two parties, without any supervision of an exchange. It is contrasted with exchange trading, which occurs via these facilities. An exchange has the benefit of facilitating liquidity, mitigates all credit risk concerning the default of one party in the transaction, provides transparency, and maintains the current market price. In an OTC trade, the price is not necessarily made public information.
4 Ways Bonds Can Fit Into Your Portfolio
February 02, 2012 | Filed Under » Bonds, Fixed Income, Interest Rates, Investing Basics, Portfolio Management
Since the early 1980s, interest rates have been on a secular decline. Since the credit crisis, governments across the world have worked to flood global financial markets with liquidity, which includes low interest rates, to try and stoke economic growth. This has served to push most interest rates to all-time lows, be it those paid on government securities, mortgage rates or the rates that banks borrow from and lend to each other. (For related reading, see Forces Behind Interest Rates.)
See: Bond Basics
With interest rates across the board so low, there is a pretty wide consensus that they will trend up in 2012 and beyond. Because bond prices move in the opposite direction of interest rates, investors holding bonds have a good chance of losing money on their holdings over the next few years. However, as with any asset class, there are pockets of the market where investors should be able to protect their principal and earn reasonable rates of returns in their bond portfolios. Below are four ways that bonds can fit into your investment profile during 2012.
Municipal Bonds
About a year ago, market strategist Meredith Whitney boldly predicted that municipal bonds in the United States would eventually see hundreds of billions of dollars in defaults, as local municipalities struggle with lower tax revenue due to the credit crisis and also find it difficult to operate after years of generous retirement benefit promises and relatedoperating costs. Other strategists echoed her negative sentiment, which served to send many investors fleeing from municipal bond funds and individual bond positions.
Lower demand has served to push bond prices down and rates up. The rate on an AAA-rated five-year municipal bond is currently at roughly 0.79%, which is currently below the current Treasury bond yield of about 0.86% for the same maturity. Additionally, municipal bonds are generally exempt from federal taxes as well as most state and local tax rates. As a result, the tax equivalent yield is even higher, and moving into lower-rated bonds that are still investment grade could garner higher rates. A five-year A-rated municipal bond yields approximately 1.35%. (To learn more, read Avoid Tricky Tax Issues On Municipal Bonds.)
Corporate Bonds
AAA corporate bonds with a five-year maturity currently yields around 1.8%, which compared to the yield of municipal bonds with the same rating is more than double. A 20-year AAA corporate bond rate is somewhat decent at around 4.45%, though it requires locking up your money in a security that doesnt reach maturity until two decades later. As with the municipal bonds, sacrificing quality but still sticking in the investment grade category can allow for some pick up in yield. For instance, those brave enough to invest in bonds issued by banks and other financial institutions, can find yield to maturities of as much as 9%.
High-Yield Bonds
Sticking on the braver side of the bond market, high-yield bonds - which is a euphemism for junk bonds - offer plenty of opportunity to gamble for yields that can match the returns of stocks. A current perusal of some high-yield bonds, which are of a much lower credit rating than the investment grade bonds mentioned above, offer yield to maturities into the double digits. Clearly, the bonds with yields in the teens on up carry significant default risk, meaning investors can lose all of their money if the firm falls into further financial distress or ends up declaringbankruptcy. (Also, check out Junk Bonds: Everything You Need To Know.)
Convertible Bonds
Convertible bonds are an interesting subset of the bond market in that they combine features of traditional bonds with stocks. Like a bond, convertibles usually have a maturity date and pay a regular coupon, which should appeal to income-minded investors. They also tend to trade like a bond in a weak market environment or when company fundamentals are weak. But they also have the upside of a stock as they are convertible into the underlying companys stock. As such, they can trade much like a stock as it reflects the performance of the stock they are convertible into. Coupon rates vary and are generally quite low, but, again, offer more upside if the underlying stock performs well.
The Bottom Line
The bond market generally does not favor investors these days. The fact that companies, governments and municipalities are jumping at the chance to issue debt at low interest rates speaks to the fact that rates are at historic lows. Recently, a 10-year Treasury bond was issued with a coupon rate below 2%, which is the first time rates were ever this low. Despite the challenging overall outlook for the asset class, there are plenty of opportunities to find ways for bonds to fit into your portfolio.
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The objective of analysis is to forecast the direction of the future price.
Does Tax Loss Harvesting Really Work?
Its about as traditional as putting up your holiday themed decorations, having the holiday office party, and exchanging gifts. For investors, tax loss harvesting has been a December tradition for as long as theyve been an investor, and to say anything negative about it could make you the Wall Street Grinch. As an investor you should always have data to back up your decision. Well look at whether the data supports the stated benefits of tax harvesting. (To learn more, read Tax-Loss Harvesting: Reduce Investment Losses.)
What Is It?
Not too up on this whole tax loss harvesting thing? Lets say in 2011 you were absolutely sure that gold was going to $2,100 so when it hit $1,900 you pulled the trigger on some shares of SPDR Gold Shares (ARCA:GLD), the most popular exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracks the price of gold. Your call hasnt materialized so you youve lost $2,000 on that position. Youre still sure its going to push through the $2,100 level so you would really like to hold on to it, but youve had a good year and you have $8,000 that are subject to capital gains taxes.
Heres your plan. Youre going to take your loss on your GLD position and put the $2,000 against your $8,000 in gains so you only have to pay taxes on $6,000 of capital gains. You know you have to avoid something called a wash-sale rule that doesnt allow you to sell and immediately repurchase GLD so you may put your money to work somewhere else for 30 days and then reinvest in GLD after that. Thats tax loss harvesting. (For related reading, see Selling Losing Securities For A Tax Advantage.)
The Problem
Trying to beat the system is often a fools game and in the case of tax loss harvesting, that may be true. The Wall Street Journal took on the role of the investing Grinch when they looked at how well tax loss harvesting actually works. They found that it wasnt as much of a gift under the tree that some people think.
Tax expert Kent Smetters is a professor of risk management at the University of Pennsylvanias Wharton School and cites a few of the normal culprits that remain a thorn in the side of investors: inflation and tax rates.(Check out Timeless Ways To Protect Yourself From Inflation.)
Because tax loss harvesting isnt removing your tax liability, youre going to pay the taxes sometime in the future. When you sold your GLD position at a loss, you lowered your entry point, or tax basis by $2,000 for the next position you open.
Later on, presuming your call of $2,100 gold comes to fruition, you now owe that extra $2,000 that you harvested in 2011 and youll pay the taxes on that gain at what could be a higher tax rate and using dollars that are worth less in the future than they are today. All of that, according to Smetters adds up to minuscule savings, if any at all.
The Bottom Line
Smetters analysis doesnt suggest that all tax loss harvesting is ill advised. Investors along with their financial and tax advisers should instead carefully consider and calculate the potential savings involved in this strategy instead of believing conventional wisdom.
Short selling carries with it unlimited risk because the purchase price of a security can rise to any price point. Conversely, long investors (buyers) may only lose the amount invested – if, for example, the security price drops to zero.
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While this can be frustrating, it should be pointed out that technical analysis is more like an art than a science, somewhat like economics. Is the cup half-empty or half-full? It is in the eye of the beholder.
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If the broker-dealer cannot, or chooses not to, execute the trade internally, they must attempt to execute the trade with another broker-dealer. This often means accessing the security on OTC Markets Group’s OTC Dealer application and ascertaining whether the order is marketable. Marketable orders are orders where the price specified can immediately be executed in the market. Market Orders are, by definition, marketable. Limit Orders are marketable if the limit price is better than or equal to the bid price (for sell orders) or ask price.
Because technical analysis can be applied to many different time frames, it is possible to spot both short-term and long-term trends.
Golden Opportunity For Real Estate Investors
In August 2011, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced their mandate to reduce the volume of real estate owned (REO) properties, stabilize property values in areas hard-hit with foreclosures and increase the supply of affordable rental housing in those same markets. In February 2012, the FHFA launched the REO-to-Rental Pilot Initiative that will attract smaller investors and increase private investment in REO properties.
FHFA Overview
The FHFA has regulatory and supervisory oversight over Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Bank System. The agency worked with the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), theFederal Housing Administration (FHA), the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the Treasury Department and many state and local governments to develop the REO-to-Rental Pilot Initiative to increase participation from smaller and private investors to purchase, rehabilitate, manage and rent REO properties in areas with declining market values and deteriorating conditions.
How the Pilot Program Works
Potential investors will register and complete a pre-qualification form online. This establishes eligibility to bid on pools of foreclosures held in REO status with Fannie Mae in the initial pilot phase. Future offerings will include REO holdings from Freddie Mac and the FHA. Qualified investors include partnerships, trusts and individuals along with banks, non-profit agencies and for-profit real estate businesses.
Investors are required to hold and rent the properties for a specified time. They must also provide affordable rents and lease-to-own options. This program is not for short-term investors, but rather those who are committed to long-term holdings and will operate under a business model that includes housing counseling for prospective tenant-buyers.
The target properties are in areas that have high numbers of foreclosed properties, and high rental demand. Most properties will be vacant single-family residences withnonperforming loans that failed the short-sale process. Many two- to four-family units in a foreclosure status will also be available. Some properties offered will be existing tenant occupied properties; others include owners who remained as renters after a foreclosure.
Traditionally, REO sales focused on large institutional investors and individual owner-occupant buyers. This pilot program allows small individual investors to bridge the gap, and fill an important niche missing in many depressed housing markets – that is, participation from local real estate investors who reside in or near communities they invest in.
Requirements for Individual Investors
1. Net worth of $1 million, individual or joint.
2. Net income of $200,000 individual, $300,000 joint.
3. Experience buying, selling, developing, managing real estate with emphasis on risk management ability.
Can the Program Work?
Either Fannie Mae or the FHFA will have to provide seller financing in order to make the pilot program successful. This reduces the role of these agencies in the housing market, something consumer advocates, market players and lawmakers are calling for. This also provides access to ablanket mortgage or other similar lines of financing traditionally not available to small investors in some areas. Structure and oversight should use strategies that worked well in the past, such as those the Resolution Trust Corporation used to solve the savings and loan failures of the past. Investors need tax advantages similar to those available through real estate investment trusts. Finally, regulatory controls must deter practices that helped fuel the current housing crisis such as inadequate renter-buyer income verification, property flipping and ownership/chain of title fraud.
The Bottom Line
This is an excellent opportunity for individual real estate investors, developers and property managers to enter or re-enter the buy-to-hold and rental real estate market under favorable conditions.
For more information about the Federal Housing Finance Agencys REO-to-Rental Pilot Initiative, visit the REO Asset Disposition page on the agencys website. Serious investors should also complete the Investor Pre-Qualification Process at Fannie Maes HomePath website.
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Investors must decide whether price (Limit Order) or timing/immediacy (Market Order) is more important to them.
Who is the current leader and how will changes within the sector affect the current balance of power? What are the barriers to entry? Success depends on an edge, be it marketing, technology, market share or innovation.
Easy-To-Understand ETFs
Do you ever feel like theres a building full of people whose sole duty is to make investing as difficult as possible? If youre frustrated with all of the different investment options, youre not alone. Fortunately, there are some exchange traded funds that didnt make it to that complicated building. If youre just getting started as an investor, consider these ETFs.
SPDR S
Companies that are unwilling or unable to meet OTC Markets' Guidelines for Providing Adequate Current Information but have submitted some but not all of current information required are rated as having limited information. These are often companies with financial reporting problems, economic distress, or in bankruptcy.
By looking at price action over an extended period of time, we can see the battle between supply and demand unfold. In its most basic form, higher prices reflect increased demand and lower prices reflect increased supply.
Behold the $GTMM BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/GTMM
4 Signs A Private Company Is Going Public
When a private company makes plans to go public, there is rarely any fanfare or advance notice. Some of the radio silence is due to SEC requirements in relation to official filings of notices and the prospectus, and some is simply due to the fact that a company going public is often big news and puts the corporation under a magnifying glass. It is easier for a company to make preparations in the relative solitude of anonymity. There are, however, several signs, prior to the official notification and filing, that can indicate that a company is about to make the big leap.
SEE: IPO Basics
Corporate Governance Upgrades
Public companies that trade on U.S. stock exchanges are required under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) to maintain certain standards in the management of the corporation. These standards include having an external board of directors, developing and assessing an effective set of internal controls over the financial management of the company, and creating a formal process where employees and others can have direct access to the audit committee to report on illegal activities, as well as those that violate company policy. A sudden flurry of new policies and procedures could be an indication of a move towards an initial public offering (IPO).
Big Bath Write-Downs
Public companies, and those that are about to go public, have their annual and quarterly financial statements scrutinized by investors and analysts. Private companies considering going public often assess their own financial statements and take any write-offs they are allowed under GAAPall at once, to present better income statements in the future.
For example, accounting rules require that companies write down inventory that is unsalable or worth less than its original cost. However, there is substantial leeway in making that determination. Companies often keep inventory on their balance sheets as long as possible to ensure that they are meeting asset ratios for banks and other lenders . Once a company contemplates going public, it often makes sense to write off the inventory sooner rather than later, when it would impact shareholder profitability.
Sudden Changes in Senior Management
Once a company contemplates going public, it has to think about how qualified its current management is and whether it is need of some spring cleaning. To attract investors , a public company needs to have officers and managers who are experienced and have a track record of leading companies to profitability. If there is a full scale overhaul in the upper echelons of a company, it may be a signal that it is trying to improve its image in advance of going public.
Selling-Off Non-Core Business Segments
A company that springs up from scratch can often have some business units attached to it that are ancillary to its core, or main, business purpose. An example of this is an office supplies company that has a payroll processing business; the secondary business does not connect directly to the main business. In order to market a company in an initial public offering, the prospectus is expected to show a clear business direction. If a company is shedding its non-core operations, it may be a sign that it is getting lean and mean in preparation for a public share offering.
The Bottom Line
Because of the ability of a private company to keep quiet on its intentions to go public until the formal SEC-required filings and announcements, it can be difficult to assess whether a company is heading in that direction. However, there are always more subtle signals for those seeking them out.
U.S. OTC market contains the same participants and incentives as other U.S. markets. The same is true for trading in OTC securities.
The price set by the market reflects the sum knowledge of all participants, and we are not dealing with lightweights here. These participants have considered (discounted) everything under the sun and settled on a price to buy or sell.
BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX $NWMT
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/NWMT
Knowing Your Rights As A Shareholder
Say you just bought stock in Disney (NYSE:DIS). As a part owner of the company does this mean you and the family can hit Disneyland for free this summer? Why is it that Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD) shareholders dont get a case of beer each quarter? (Forget the dividends!) Although these perks are highly unlikely, they do raise a good question: what rights and privileges do shareholders have? While they may not be entitled to free rides and beer, many investors are unaware of their rights as shareowners. In this article, we discuss what privileges come with being ashareholder and which do not.
Levels of Ownership Rights
Before getting into the nitty-gritty of shareholder rights, lets first look at a companys pecking order. Every company has a hierarchical structure of rights that accompany the three main classes of securities that companies issue: bonds, preferred stock and common stock (To learn more, see our Stocks Basics Tutorial.)
The priority of each security is best understood by looking at what happens when a company goes bankrupt. You may think that as an owner youd be first in line for getting a portion of the companys assets if it went belly up. After all, you did pay for them. In reality, as a common shareholder you are at the very bottom of the corporate food chain when a company liquidates; you are the corporate equivalent of a hyena that eats only after the lions have eaten their share. During insolvency proceedings, it is the creditors who first get dibs on the companys assets to settle their outstanding debts, then the bondholders get first crack at those leftovers, followed by preferred shareholders and finally the common shareholders . This hierarchy forms according to the principle of absolute priority.
In addition to the rules of absolute priority, there are other rights that differ with each class of security. For example, usually a companys charter states that only the common stockholders have voting privileges and preferred stockholders must receive dividends before common stockholders. The rights of bondholders are determined differently because a bond agreement, or indenture, represents a contract between the issuer and the bondholder. The payments and privileges the bondholder receives are governed by the indenture (tenets of the contract).
Risks and Rewards
Sounds pretty bad for common shareholders, doesnt it? Dont be fooled, common shareholders are still the part owners of the business and if the business is able to turn a profit, then common shareholders gain. The liquidation preference we described makes logical sense: shareholders take on a greater risk (they receive next to nothing if the firm goes bankrupt) but they also have a greater reward potential through exposure to share price appreciation when the company succeeds, whereas there are usually fewer preferred stocks held by a select few. As such, preferred stocks generally experience less price fluctuation.
Common Shareholders Six Main Rights
1. Voting Power on Major Issues
This includes electing directors and proposals for fundamental changes affecting the company such as mergers or liquidation. Voting takes place at the companys annual meeting. If you cant attend, you can do so by proxy and mail in your vote.
2. Ownership in a Portion of the Company
Previously we discussed the event of a corporate liquidation where bondholders and preferred shareholders are paid first. However, when business thrives, common shareholders own a piece of something that has value. Said another way, they have a claim on a portion of the assets owned by the company. As these assets generate profits, and as the profits are reinvested in additional assets, shareholders see a return in the form of increased share value as stock prices rise.
• The Right to Transfer Ownership
Right to transfer ownership means shareholders are allowed to trade their stock on an exchange. The right to transfer ownership might seem mundane, but the liquidity provided by stock exchanges is extremely important. Liquidity is one of the key factors that differentiates stocks from an investment like real estate. If you own property, it can take months to convert your investment into cash. Because stocks are so liquid, you can move your money into other places almost instantaneously.
• An Entitlement to Dividends
Along with a claim on assets, you also receive a claim on any profits a company pays out in the form of a dividend . Management of a company essentially has two options with profits: they can be reinvested back into the firm (hopefully increasing the companys overall value) or paid out in the form of a dividend. You dont have a say in what percentage of profits should be paid out - this is decided by the board of directors. However, whenever dividends are declared, common shareholders are entitled to receive their share.
• Opportunity to Inspect Corporate Books and Records
This opportunity is provided through a companys public filings, including its annual report. Nowadays, this isnt such a big deal as public companies are required to make their financials public. It can be more important for private companies.
• The Right to Sue for Wrongful Acts
Suing a company usually takes the form of a shareholder class-action lawsuit. A good example of this type of suit occurred in the wake of the accounting scandal that rocked WorldCom in 2002, after it was discovered that the company had grossly overstated earnings, giving shareholders and investors an erroneous view of its financial health. The telecom giant faced a firestorm of shareholder class-action suits as a result.
Shareholder rights vary from state to state, and country to country, so it is important to check with your local authorities and public watchdog groups. In North America, however, shareholders rights tend to be more developed than other nations and are standard for the purchase of any common stock. These rights are crucial for the protection of shareholders against poor management.
Corporate Governance
In addition to the six basic rights of common shareholders, it is vital that you thoroughly research the corporate governance policies of a company. These policies are often crucial in determining how a company treats and informs its shareholders.
Shareholder Rights Plan
Despite its name, this plan differs from the standard shareholder rights outlined by the government (the six rights we touched on). Shareholder rights plans outline the rights of a shareholder in a specific corporation. A companys shareholder rights plan, it is usually accessible in the investors relations section of its corporate website or by contacting the company directly.
In most cases, these plans are designed to give the companys board of directors the power to protect shareholder interests in the event of an attempt by an outsider to acquire the company. To prevent a hostile takeover, the company will have a shareholder rights plan that can be exercised when another person or firm acquires a certain percentage of outstanding shares.
The way a shareholder rights plan may work can be best demonstrated with an example: lets say Corys Tequila Co. notices that its competitor, Joes Tequila Co., has purchased more than 20% of its common shares. A shareholder rights plan might then stipulate that existing common shareholders have the opportunity to buy shares at a discount to the current market price (usually a 10-20% discount). This maneuver is sometimes referred to as a flip-in poison pill. By being able to purchase more shares at a lower price, investors get instant profits and more importantly, they dilute the shares held by the competitor, whose takeover attempt is now more difficult and expensive. There are numerous techniques like this that companies can put into place to defend themselves against a hostile takeover.
Sometimes There are Little Extras
Are you still looking for other perks? Although free beer may be a little far-fetched there are companies that offer shareholders little extras. For instance, Anheuser-Busch does offer its shareholders discounted rates to some of the companys entertainment parks, among other things. Other companies have been known to give their shareholders small tokens of their appreciation along with their annual reports. For example, AT
Many foreign issuers adhere to the listing requirements of qualified Non-US Stock Exchanges[8] and make their home country disclosure available in English.[9] There are also a significant number of US issuers who are current in their reporting to regulators[10] such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or make available ongoing quarterly and audited annual financial reports through OTC Markets Group.
NITE-LYNX $RYPE BarChart Technical Analysis
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/RYPE
Even though deviations will occur and there will be periods when securities are overvalued or undervalued, these anomalies will disappear as quickly as they appeared, thus making it almost impossible to profit from them.
Dont Let Brokerage Fees Undermine Your Returns
Like a unicorn or Shangri La, the true picture of the smart investor is sometimes hard to define. Its true that some people are lucky but, by and large, most people who are successful in the market do their homework and analyze the stocks , period. Regardless of what kind of investor you are or want to be, there is one practical lesson that can help you maximize your returns: a penny saved is a penny earned. That is why smart investors will ensure that they dont give away more money than necessary to their brokerages.
Surprising Extras
Some brokerage firms will try to find any way to get you. In the times of competitive markets and low commissions, individual investors should ask themselves how brokers make their money. Large corporations are under constant pressure to help improve the bottom line, and as a result they have introduced new types of fees for individual investors . It is important to read over your account agreement and fee summaries to make sure that none of these fees takes you by surprise. Here are some to look out for:
• Inactivity fees – These you have to pay if you dont execute enough trades on your account during a set time frame.
• Transfer fees – These fees are meant to discourage you from jumping around from broker to broker.
• Account maintenance fees – These fees are placed on certain services, and are designed to reduce customer requests that require tasks that expend the brokers resources, such as searching for historical data, maintaining records and mailing statements.
• Minimum equity requirement fees - Some brokerages charge clients who dont maintain a minimum balance, which can consist of cash and/or securities.
Although these fees are not broadcast when you first open an account, they can, after a couple months, cause significant damage to your portfolio.
For instance, by missing your minimum equity requirements you can be charged close to $20 every quarter. This sum might not seem very large, but $80 a year adds up to the equivalent of a $1,000 bond paying 8% interest. Some of these charges are easy to avoid, but you need to be aware of them. If your brokerage account balance is below the equity requirements and you are carrying balances not being used for anything in other accounts, all you have to do is transfer them over for the duration.
Not All Orders Are the Same
You may or may not be aware that most discount brokerages charge a different price for limit orders than for market orders. A market order is an order to buy or sell a stock immediately at the best available price. A limit order is an order placed with a brokerage to buy or sell at a specific price. Placing a limit order with some brokers can cost as much as $5 more than a market order . If you use a limit order, make sure the price you pay more than offsets the extra $5 you will be charged on the commission.
Discipline Is Key to Reducing Commissions
The two emotions that strongly characterize the financial markets are fear and greed. Keeping your emotions out of your portfolio could end up saving you a lot of money. Before you make hasty buy or sell decisions remember that there are commissions charged on both sides of the transaction. For example, if we assume that the commission related to an order is $15 per side, a trade that will allow us to crystallize a gain will cost $30 (one buy and one sell order).
Warren Buffett, one of the greatest investors of all time, suggests a hypothetical strategy: every investor is given a punch card with 20 slots, and, each time the investor buys a stock, a slot is punched out. Once all 20 slots are punched out, the investor is done investing for the remainder of his or her life. Using a similar guideline would help many of us not only save thousands of dollars in commission throughout our lifetime but also choose our investments much more carefully. (For more of Buffetts wisdom, read What Is Warren Buffetts Investing Style?)
Dont Forget About Potential Returns
One additional thing to remember is that money that is not working for you is money wasted. You work hard for your money, but by letting it sit in a checking account, you earn only meager interest. So spending some money on commissions is necessary to put your money work for you. If, on the other hand, you have large sums of money that is not invested, one of your options is to buy a money market fund or open a money market account with your bank. A money market account is a savings account that offers the competitive rate of interest in exchange for larger-than-normal deposits.
Conclusion
These tips might not make you $1 million dollars, but they may be necessary in your aim to maximize your investment income. By being aware of the extra fees out there, you can reduce transaction costs and increase returns on your investments.
Behold the $TAGE BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/TAGE
There are many thinly-traded OTC securities which are not traded every day by broker-dealers.
FINRA requires member firms to find the market with the best price to execute their customer order. OTC Link and the FINRA's OTC Bulletin Board TM Quotation System are the two recognized inter-dealer quotation systems for facilitating electronic best execution by broker-dealers. The two quotation systems may only be used to satisfy best execution if there are two or more priced quotes in a security. If less than two priced quotes exist for a security, broker-dealers must contact three other dealers for priced quotations.
Feast thine eyes upon $DATA BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/DATA
Some investors and traders consider the closing level to be more important than the open, high or low. By paying attention to only the close, intraday swings can be ignored.
For thou convenience $SGAS BarChart Technical Analysis NITE-LYNX
http://www.barchart.com/technicals/stocks/SGAS
Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a support level broken if the price closes 1/8 below the established support level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish support zones.
Rumor has it EPXY has in development a crypto-currency based app and wallet. Crypto-Currencies like Bitcoin and Etherium will be some of the biggest dollar markets in history. EPXY going international.
EVSV Huge GSA contract TBA next week. $90,000+ cash position, $100K+ Q3 revs, no dilution, no R/S. Joint Venture with $18M Tampa contractor and new MJ subsidiary filed in August.
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