Sigma Designs, Inc fka SIGM

[poor_user]

S2, you know analyst's are usually wrong. Why do you believe them now?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080415/sigma_designs_mover.html?.v=1&printer=1

If this analyst truly believed what they were saying, they would have lowered their price target more than $4.

[SyndicateTwo]

If Baird is correct, this is the end of SIGM. Or at least the beginning of the end.

This is why BRCM was breaking out while no one else was. I have been doing this long enough now to have known better that when you have a stock that is trading at such huge unbelievable discounts to what metrics it 'should' be trading at, and then it never moves up to correct that perceieved misprice, (which could have been caused by a simple position blowout margin call or such) someone definitely knows something.

There was no way for any of us to know the connection between BRCM and SIGM unless you're in the trenches. But someone did and that's why SIGM didn't go anywhere. I was scratching my head just yesterday trying to figure it out because even in a weak market, you'd normally get at least a normal retracement. But not here. I was about to pull the trigger yesterday on a collar by buying Jan 09 $30 puts against my entire position just in case, but decided to wait to game the market by getting them cheaper as the stock moved up as expected.

This is a classic lesson in not timing the market. Just always be protected.

So, that's a nice $15k haircut I'm taking today. I'm bailing on SIGM because if they are losing that much biz to BRCM and especially their biggest customer in MOT, SIGM will be in the low single digits very soon with absolutely no catalyst to change things. BRCM must have played serious hardball to get those accounts and gave away the store to do it so they can get their foot in the door with this ramp in IPTV and blueray.

[cutterscnr]

Well down almost 23% right now to 16.36. Unreal. Going all the way back to where it came. Took 1/2 position .32 here.

[SteveNix]

Well, 3 decent news releases yesterday, and the stock gets dumped today. I just can't understand it?

[SyndicateTwo]

Well, I must admit that the most money I've ever made was buying at times like these and stocks that just never seem to stop going down when they 'shouldn't' - whatever the hell that means.

But when you look totally objectively at the math I showed, unless something knows SIGM is on its way to going out of biz, this is one of the greatest buying ops in tech in decades if their next report shows anything near their last projections.

My personal position is kinda all over the place between long stock covered by short calls and long LEAPS on the $20 strike for 2010, along with April short $22.50 puts which I'm expecting now to get 'put'. Those were short at $1, so my basis on those 1000 shares (10 puts) will be $21.50. But I think I'll just short calls on Friday afternoon ($22.50s) if it appears they'll be in the money.

[poor_user]

Yes, this market is insane and this is what market bottoms are made of!

[STRONGUS]

You made some valid point there, dude. SIGM is undervalued under all metrics. I am taking this gift with both hands

[SyndicateTwo]

The best way to value a company or at least see if it's valued properly is to do a quick number crunch and it's just amazing how low this company is trading value wise.

Simply take a company's market cap and divide it by it's net income for the year.

In the case of SIGM, they made $70 mill last twelve months and at $21.08 as I write this, the market cap is about $558 mill. (26 mill shares outstanding x $21.08)

So, $558/$70 mill = a trailing GAAP EPS of $7.FRIGGN 9!!!!!

Pepsi is trading at over 20!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Is the market insane!??!?!?!?!?!?!


If SIGM were to come in light and give analyst's a reason to lower forward income estimates to say, $55 mill? Is that fair? (not gonna happen, but just to make the point) SIGM at a GAAP forward PE of 10 would be worth exactly where it's trading at right now!!! ($558 market cap at $21.08/$55 = 10)


Either I have something totally wrong, or the market is giving out the greatest gift in tech land in over a decade!


BRCM right now trades at a TTM PE of 51! ($11bill/$213 mill)

That's a GAAP number, not non-GAAP BS.

If you gave SIGM half of that which is totally unfair considering the growth rate is double BRCM's, SIGM would be worth about $68!!!!!! ($68 x 26 mill shares outstanding / $70 mill income = PE of 25.2)

[STRONGUS]

SIGM : Plenty of good news today. The stock is really beaten down and has a huge short position..Nice mix for a rally

[SyndicateTwo]

Wow. Look at SIGM's bollinger bands. They're tightening and wound. That sets up for a 'squeeze play' and what's interesting is that the weekly chart above is very oversold. So, there could be a huge spike in the stock to the high $20s very soon. If the DOW breaks 12,700 with conviction - which I think it will - then these stocks should do very well.

[DoctaBis]

Thanks for the info.

[MRVLReader]

Yes, This is the abbreviation for SyndicateTwo, he is very nice guy. He has three website in iHub. We know each other since mid of 2006 in the "MRVL" site; the second one is "SyndicateTwo's Stock Board", here is the link:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=10888
He send to us weekly e-mail, talking about the entire market and give us his point of view to pick up stocks...if you are interested, you can sign up his 10K account,(that means, we have $10,000 to start with...he give you the pick up weekly...so far, about 10% increase from two week ago...) you should try it.
You manage your own money, just follow his pick up, then buy or sell what ever he tell you. The best part is, any time you ask any questions, you always get response from him. I learned a lot from him.
Again, he is nice guy!

[poor_user]

The abbreviation for SyndicateTwo.

[DoctaBis]

whats s2?

[SyndicateTwo]

I didn't say buy DIVX lately. I said to buy it after that earnings report if it broke $15 which it did. Then it was a quick $4.

You see the news on RVBD? Some strange call activity suggesting a possible buyout by CSCO.

But you know how these things go.

[poor_user]

Thanks...

[MRVLReader]

Base on S2 weekly e-mail, I bought what ever he told us at the time about few month ago:RVBD,ADP,HOG,DIVX... ADP and HOG are runing good now.

[DoctaBis]

THIS IS INTERESTING
hope it helps
http://navelliergrowth.investorplace.com/q-a/archive/specific-stocks/thoughts-on-sigma-designs-03-10-08.html

[DoctaBis]

I keep buying the 35 calls every month, wait for the day everything corrects. I have a better chance here than lottery tickets. I'm still holding from 35 and 22. I don't want to pay the 35% capital gains when this finally pays off. I'm holding long.
Thanks for your comments, i'll stay in touch.

[cutterscnr]

Sigma aims for upper end of sales forecast
Fri Mar 28, 2008 4:49am EDT
By Jennifer Tan

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. chipmaker Sigma Designs Inc (SIGM.O: Quote, Profile, Research) may reach the upper end of its $300-$350 million revenue forecast for the fiscal year ending January 2009, thanks to new customers in Internet-Protocol television

(IPTV).

Sigma, which competes with Broadcom Corp (BRCM.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and STMicroelectronics (STM.PA: Quote, Profile, Research), makes chips that are used in set-top boxes which allows users to watch TV shows over the Internet, and Blu-ray high-definition DVD players.

"To get to $300 million is conservative expectations for a lot of people -- getting to $300 million does not seem to be a very big leap of faith," Sigma Vice President Ken Lowe told Reuters in a telephone interview on Friday.

"To get to the next level -- $350 million -- means we've got some market developments going on, means we've got some new customers we need to bring online. If new customers come online, we obviously have an opportunity to go above the 300 level."

Lowe added that Sigma expects to sign on "a handful" of IPTV customers later this year, and was in talks with France Telecom (FTE.PA: Quote, Profile, Research), U.S-based Verizon Communications Inc (VZ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and India's Reliance Communications (RLCM.BO: Quote, Profile, Research).

"We see a strong year for IPTV -- we see unit volumes continuing to increase in each of the continents," he said.

"France is the strongest by far in Europe, AT&T (T.N: Quote, Profile, Research) in North America, and Korea is leading the pack in Asia Pacific."

Sigma, with a market value of nearly $700 million, derives more than 70 percent of group revenues from the IPTV segment and about 15 percent of sales from Blu-ray players.

Industry shipments of IPTV set-top boxes are expected to surge 75 percent to 14 million units in 2008 from last year, while Blu-ray players are likely to jump five-fold this year, according to company estimates.

Blu-ray technology recently won out over rival format HD DVD in a battle to become the next generation industry standard, a move analysts expect to spur a jump in demand for Blu-ray players.

Sigma holds about 80 percent of the global IPTV chipset market, while its share for Blu-ray stand-alone players is about 75 percent.

"We continue to believe that Sigma is well-positioned to benefit from accelerating deployments of IPTV worldwide. Blu-ray should also become an important revenue contributor in the second half of the year, driven by seasonality and increased availability of low-cost players from Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers," said UBS Investment Research analyst Uche Orji in a recent client note. He has a buy call on the stock.

Earlier this month, Sigma reported fourth-quarter earnings that slightly missed Wall Street estimates, due to a drop in its gross margins, and forecast a sequential decline in first-quarter revenue. It said it expects the sequential revenue growth to resume in the second quarter.

In the fourth quarter, the company's net income jumped to $35.3 million from $4.6 million a year ago. Gross margins fell to 49 percent in the quarter, from 51.3 percent a year ago.

Lowe said he expected gross margins to remain in the 50 percent range as the company focuses on advanced chips with new features and on lowering the cost of production.

Sigma's shares have lost nearly 60 percent in the last three months.

(Editing by Jan Dahinten and Lincoln Feast)

[cutterscnr]

Sigma's Media Processor Is Selected to Power the Comcast/Panasonic Unique AnyPlay(TM) Portable DVR
Monday March 31, 9:01 am ET


MILPITAS, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sigma Designs (Nasdaq:SIGM - News), a leader in digital media processing System-on-a-Chip Solutions (SoCs) for consumer electronics, today announced that its highly integrated EM8622L media processor was selected by Panasonic (NYSE:MC - News), the market leader in high-end portable DVD players and Plasma HDTVs, to power the new AnyPlay™ P-DVR being jointly developed with Comcast Corporation (Nasdaq: CMCSA - News, CMCSK - News), the nation's leading provider of entertainment, information and communications products and services.
The Comcast/Panasonic co-branded AnyPlay P–DVR Model TZ-LC100 is the industry’s first portable DVR player powered by tru2way™ technology and will allow Comcast cable customers to record programming at home and take it with them wherever they go. Powered by Sigma’s EM8622L, the AnyPlay P-DVR incorporates digital video recording functionality into a Panasonic portable DVD player platform and features 60GB of digital video recording capacity, an 8.5” folding LCD display screen, and integrated stereo speakers. Dual audio headphone jacks are included to support personal viewing. Comcast and Panasonic announced at CES 2008 that the P-DVR will be available beginning in early 2009.

“We’re pleased that Sigma’s advanced EM8622L SoC is powering the video processing of such an innovative Panasonic product,” said Ken Lowe, VP of strategic marketing at Sigma Designs. “This announcement highlights the breadth of consumer electronics products powered by Sigma from HDTVs and Blu-ray Disc players in the living room to mobile devices that can offer consumers the best video experience everywhere they go.”

“We’ve been pleased to work with Sigma Designs while developing the portable DVR platform,” said Dr. Paul Liao, Chief Technology Officer, Panasonic Corporation of North America, the principal North American subsidiary of Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., Ltd. (NYSE: MC - News). “The company’s chips enable our product to give customers a reliable and sharp, crisp video viewing experience wherever and whenever they want it.”

When placed onto a companion docking station that functions as a standard DVR set-top box, the AnyPlay P-DVR lets viewers watch and record their favorite television programs from their television sets. However, unlike a traditional set-top box, it can be taken out of its docking station, so recorded programs can be watched anywhere in or out of the home on the AnyPlay P-DVR. It also can play back DVDs and audio CDs.

About Sigma SoCs

Sigma provides advanced media processor silicon and software that constitute a system-on-a-chip (SoC) solution for designing HDTVs, IPTV set-top boxes, Blu-ray Disc players, Digital Media Adapters (DMA), portable and mobile devices, enabling customers to focus on software development and value-added features that extend far beyond basic operations. The next-generation technology contained in Sigma’s EM8622L media processor enables consumer electronic devices to offer stunning, precise pictures and remarkably beautiful sound as well as intelligent interactive features.

About Sigma Designs, Inc.

Sigma Designs is a leading fabless provider of highly integrated system-on-chip, or SoC, solutions that are used to deliver multimedia entertainment throughout the home. Sigma’s SoC solutions combine its semiconductors and software and are a critical component of multiple high-growth, consumer applications that process digital video and audio content, including internet protocol TV, or IPTV, high definition DVD players, high definition TVs, or HDTVs, and portable media players. Headquartered in Milpitas, Calif., Sigma Designs also has sales representatives in the United States, Belgium, China, Japan and Taiwan and sells its products through a third-party distributor in Korea. For more information, please visit Sigma Designs’ web site at www.sigmadesigns.com.

[cutterscnr]

Sigma Designs: Searching For The Bottom
Posted by Eric Savitz
Sigma Designs (SIGM) shares certainly are having a bad day; but what’s really astonishing is just how much the stock has fallen in the last three months. Since early December, the stock has dropped 70%. This despite the fact that the company remains a dominant chip supplier in both of its key markets: IPTV set-top boxes and Blu-Ray players.

The biggest concern in both cases has been a fear of growing competition. In IPTV, the company has had a near monopoly in chips for the Motorola (MOT) boxes used in AT&T’s U-verse television service, which it has been rolling out aggressively. The stock took a big hit in early January when Broadcom announced that it was being evaluated by Microsoft (MSFT), which makes the IPTV software on which AT&T U-verse is built, as potential competitor for IPTV set-tops. While the company should benefit from the recent news that Blu-Ray has finally knocked out HD-DVD as the industry wide standard for high-def DVDs, it has provided no help for the stock.

Yesterday, the big news was a warning on FY Q1 revenues, which will come in way short due to previous over-ordering by Motorola, which apparently over-estimated the demand for IPTV boxes from AT&T (T). The company said things should normalize later in the year, but investors seem not entirely convinced. The news also raises another obvious question: did Motorola simply produce too many boxes, or is demand or is AT&T rolling out U-verse a little slower than it had expected? Actually, there is another answer, analysts say: AT&T is using Cisco’s (CSCO) Scientific Atlanta unit as a second-source.

N. Quinn Bolton, an analyst at Needham, notes that there are couple of other concerns, as well. One is that gross margin in the fourth quarter fell sharply. Another is that, despite SIGM’s promises, it could take longer than expected to work through the extra box inventory at Motorola. He also says that based on management’s estimates that the overall market this year will be 14 million IPTV STBs and 5 million Blu-Ray players, you get a total addressable market of $342 million. That makes management’s estimate of revenue for the January ‘09 fiscal year of $300 million to $350 million “aggressive,” Bolton says.

Tristan Gerra, an analyst with Robert W. Baird, advises staying out of the stock “until we get more visibility about the timing of a return to normal orders patterns in IPTV, as well as an update on potential new developments regarding the competition landscape.” He cut his target on the stock to $30 from $50.

Other analysts are more optimistic, though most cut targets:

RBC Capital’s Mark Sue cut his target to $30 from $35. He maintains his Outperform rating, but says that “the outlook is not pretty.”
UBS’ Uche Orji keeps his Buy rating, but cuts his target to $48 from $75. He blames the MOT issue on AT&T’s ramp up of Scientific Atlanta set-tops.
Roth Capital’s Jay Srivatsa keeps his Buy rating, but cuts his target to $45 from $58. He says the stock is cheap, with $6.91 a share in cash and no debt, and trading at just 10x FY 2010 estimates.
ThinkEquity’s Anton Wahlman likewise maintains his Buy rating. He snipped his target to $73 from $74. “Fundamentally, the story continues unchanged, in the sense that it keeps getting better and better,” he writes. Hard to believe he is writing about the same stock as everyone else.
Sigma Designs today is down $4.04, or 16%, at $21.22.

[poor_user]

http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USSIN30542520080328

[poor_user]

Just heard that Louis Navellier bought $400,000 of Sigma.

Can anyone confirm this?

[MRVLReader]

Thanks!

[SyndicateTwo]

Buy both. Why pile into just one. Technically, BRCM is breaking out. SIGM is still at the end of a fall with no technical reason to buy other than bottom fishing which in its case is a fundamental trade.

BRCM I think clearly is headed to the low $20s quickly here. I own the stock at $16.75 and $18 with short April $20 calls expecting a call out on them.

SIGM I am holding for a longer term gain with the expectation of a high $20s target.

[MRVLReader]

So,
BRCM 26.60-19.00=7.60 7.60/19.00 =40%
If we buy now, keep for 4-5 months, will get 40% return. right?
Vs
SIGM If we buy now, $23.00 per share, keep less than 4 months, will reach 32.20...
Which one is better?
Thanks!

[SyndicateTwo]

Check out BRCM's chart...

[SyndicateTwo]

Not yet. It just broke $41 which was the major resistance which means it's probably headed to old support at new resistance at $44ish. Then sell calls.


SIGM looking good. $25 first target.

[MRVLReader]

S2: Take a look the ADP, is it the time to sell the calls?

[SyndicateTwo]

This was a loser short. I think the selloff was directly due to the deleverage with the hedge funds and their banks pulling their margin. But with that seemingly fixed or at least on its way to being fixed, many of these stocks that have no biz trading down here just on fundamentals will correct to reprice true value. SIGM you can make the arguement is right now intrinsically worth $40+.

Even BRCM a great steal down here. Better the other day at $16

[SyndicateTwo]

It's trying to fill that gap to $25, then might fall back a bit. But the trend is higher.

I think high $20s easy within 2 months. Our little $10k account for those on email is up today now a total 9% in 3 days.

[MRVLReader]

Looks like SIGM is ready to fly !?

[DoctaBis]

I like to see there's some noise in SIGM. hopefully this will be the last week to get shares under 30. There are not too many longs still here and there are too many noobs that shorted @ 21-22. I see a nice short squeeze going to 33-37. I started building @ 35, Long hold on stock and calls till 65. SIGM is following ZUMZ. though ZUMZ is a seasonal trade.
I'll be around, Shorts are starting to realize the inevitable.

[SyndicateTwo]

Anyone read this???


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/semi-data-show-signs-life/story.aspx?guid=%7B7FC438DE%2DC122%2D475E%2DA006%2DA941D2B90FF4%7D&siteid=yhoof

[SyndicateTwo]

You know, I just realized that SIGM has $9 per share in cash on the books. Wow.

[SyndicateTwo]

Look at that possible island bottom setting up on that chart. A 4 day island bottom if we gap up over $22 tomorrow and hold it. If that happens, then I think it's headed to $30+ to those fibonacci targets.

[SyndicateTwo]

I originally started the MRVL board thinking that MRVL would turn out to be like SIGM is now. But we all know the BS that MRVL went through with the options mess and on and on.

SIGM is a 'pure' stock that actually makes a ton of money and has a float that's so small allows for a great return potential in the right market conditions.

So many stocks have been sold off due to large firms getting margined out and being forced sellers regardless of value.

Imagine a stock you buy today that truly has the potential of more than tripling in a year. I knew MRVL was potentially dead money when they split and I was all over the board screaming for them not to do it. Well, 500 mill shares now creates a real problem for supply/demand to allow the stock to move up. It just takes too many buyers to move it. SIGM not only has a tiny float of 27 mill shares, but also is buying back their stock (3 mill shares) which will put a big bid in it.

The volitility created by the tiny float means the call options are extremely well priced allowing for even more $$$ each month selling calls against your position.

[poor_user]

A Sigma board...AWESOME!!!

[SyndicateTwo]

SIGM WEEKLY CHART-->>

[SyndicateTwo]

SIGM CHART-->>>

[MRVLReader]

Thank you very much, S2!
Would you please let us know what is the best time to sell the calls ...

[SyndicateTwo]

Well, I'll try to become the board moderator, but they say I have to post a few times first.

I think this stock is falling into the same problem as many other great - and PROFITABLE - stocks in its sector --- margin calls. Many large firms today are getting squeezed in their leverage ability and that means they have to sell everything to raise cash to pay up for those margin calls on other positions - namely financial stocks.

BSC just went caput today after being in biz for almost 100 years because they were levered 30 to 1 on many of their CDO and MBS positions. When the big boys who have their money with you start a calln', you got a problem. In this case, it's the end of your biz because you were such a whore during the good times. Well, now who said there never was a 'housing bubble'??

A bunch of life long Bear Stearns employees are learning first hand what happens when a housing bubble pops and all your retirement is in the stock. $170 to $4 in 3 months. Kind of ENRN-ish.

But this little SIGM stock, once the market turns, will be a monster because they have such a tiny float and are so damn profitable. And here at $20 it's a steal. It's like your neighbor going into foreclosure and selling you his car for 1/3 of what he paid for it just because he needs money to eat.

BRCM at $16.50 also. Man, what great times to have cash laying around.

[SyndicateTwo]

Who's the moderator? I can't put up a chart since I'm not the mod.

[MRVLReader]

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=27638672

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=27665671

[MRVLReader]

Hey guys,

I think it's time to start nibbling here. SIGM I think offers a most amazing opportunity today. I'm not using the official $10k account for this, but will say for your personal accounts, SIGM at now $20.40, down today after earnings almost $5 is a gift. Why? Well, just read this...


http://seekingalpha.com/article/68401-sigma-earnings-analysis-shorts-should-soon-have-to-cover


Make your own judgement, but this stock trading today at a PE of under 9 and a growth rate near 40% year over year and a tiny 30 mill share float has all the things you'd expect in a monster money maker when the market turns. As I said, much of this carnage in the market is mostly due to 'deleverage' where many large funds were too long the market and now are being forced to just liquidate everything regardless of price.

That means you get to pick and choose from their woes. SIGM could still fall further as that tiny float means any large forced seller could have a dramatic impact on the price with no one out there currently willing to buy it. Don't pile in if you think you want it. But you rarely find tech stocks with growth rates like that and free cash flow like it has and as profitable as it is trading under PEs of even 20.

S2 March 13,2008 7:40 AM

[DoctaBis]

I'm letting the cat out the hat. SIGM is going to 60 quick!
the shorts have loved this stock, now p/e is where it needs to be. I bought @ 26.5 and i'll add on if it breaks support. @ 25, hopefully it does.
who ever reads this, you NEED to start building a SIGM position. HD-DVD is dead and the SIGM ship is coming back. they have 50% of the market, and thats to say the least.