Short Term Trading Member Forum

[jglider]

Since the Dec low 401ks made another nice chunk of change, and probably more to come as the year progresses.. Very tradeable market,

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Jan 27 2023 400.0 Put Limit 8.55 -- -- 12:00:23 01/20/23

[jglider]

kids are making me jealous with these whipsaws

[jglider]

No one took a stab at who was lying. Hopeful one might take a shot and open up the discussion and want to learn something. I'm not giving the answer away as it's very revealing as to what is happening. Guess a few are happy to make a few dimes off whatever info they get with no effort..

Since the late Dec low things are hard and fast. PMs wow the easiest trade for months, for now.

Back in a few weeks, maybe, enjoying time away

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Jan 13 2023 397.0 Put Limit 6.96 -- -- 11:02:08 01/09/23

[jglider]

Interesting how the year stated. Dollar, bonds, gold up and spooz down. one of them was lying.

gl

[jglider]

No Santa Rally, which many were looking for. In early Dec I mentioned we had taken a swipe out of the 401K groups so why would we have done this if we felt a santa rally was coming? Again it's all in the cycles and reading the underlying issues.

20% down for this year but we had posted a few trades, had they been followed would have put general accounts at all time highs. My 401k group is up 18% between playing 2 bond trades and 2 nice SnP trades in 2 markets that were down for the year. Option players will laugh but remember most 401K plans dont allow frequent trading and it all unleveraged. Also we're rather conservative with this group.

A couple weeks ago I said we had confirmation of an ongoing traders theme. Yup, its still there. Doesn't mean a big bear nor a big bull. Just more of the same as I've been suggesting since mid Jan 2022.

2023 will be as interesting as 2022 was. Lots of patterns will change next year.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 2 SPY Jan 06 2023 384.0 Put Limit 4.37 -- -- 15:04:09 12/29/22
Filled Sell to Close 2 SPDR S&P500 ETF TRUST PUT December 388 Limit 4.67 -- -- 15:02:00 12/29/22

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Dec 30 2022 388.0 Put Limit 9.09 -- -- 14:34:18 12/16/22
 
Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Dec 30 2022 388.0 Put Limit 9.09 -- -- 14:34:18 12/16/22

[BlissBull]

Filled Sell to Close 2 SPY Dec 19 2022 393.0 Put Limit 6.00 -- -- 15:17:28 12/15/22

[jglider]

Had a good chuckle, did a rip around a few sites, now everyone says we have a traders market on our hands. Dumb asses. I said this was coming last Jan. and it is far from over, just got confirmation.

Ya you can lead a horse to water, tried it . Got the EZ plays

[jglider]

Now rising prices are being blamed on climate change. Just another feather in our hat for being self sufficient for over a decade.

BTW a fool could see climate change coming 75 years ago. A S/t wrinkle in a long term climate trend. In 25,000 years global cooling will be blamed on the left.

[jglider]

Think it was Regan who said, Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it
keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it."

Meanwhile Byedumb who hates business, unless it works for him continues to stymy our energy resources again looks to dictators for help after he partially drains our own reserves.. While Switzerland is in the process of possibly outlawing or limiting the use of electric vehicles. Still like my horse for getting around here..

A black lesbian WNBA player who kneels for the anthem gets released for breaking Russian laws.
A US Marine is left to rot in a Russian cell. Some will say to bad because of his record. What about the kneelers record?
Meanwhile, Russia gets their most powerful international arms dealer back. We know who got the best deal here.

Try to imagine the reaction if Trump freed the most notorious Russian arms dealer for Tim Tebow and left behind a black US Marine.

Cya

[jglider]

While most are getting chopped up bonds had another nice run on the long side. Was told these held no interest or made no sense. Well cycles make a lot of sense to me regardless of the item.

Yup it's stuff like this long or short I'll be focusing on next year. Said months ago the general market is of little interest to me.

Good Luck fear most will need it.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPDR S&P500 ETF TRUST PUT December 393 Limit 7.85 -- -- 15:39:15 12/06/22
 
Filled Buy to Open 1 SPDR S&P500 ETF TRUST PUT December 393 Limit 7.85 -- -- 15:39:15 12/06/22
 
Filled Sell to Close 2 SPY Dec 07 2022 400.0 Put Limit 7.20 -- -- 15:35:13 12/06/22

[jglider]

So from the big dump in mid aug till Oct slow traders make money, s/t traders made money.
When I last mentioned the nice sell in late Sep., which was near the recent I/T lows, we've again done well, 401kers included for a second time this year..

401kers took a few bucks off the table for turkey day. I needed to see the chart patterns, and being I was out of the office the kids relayed the messages as instructed from a couple weeks prior. This week they took a few more chips home, still about 60% invested. Likely some wierdness next week but a mid week pop will take these guys to higher cash.

It has been another good year. Haven't counted the eggs and chickens, no need to.

How much I'll be giving out next year remains to be seen. Having given a lot for years with little in return has me thinking to hang it up since the kids will be doing all the trading and I'll only be doing the big picture stuff.

Warned about this in July if there was no contributing I wouldn't give much. then crazyness came out so I all but clammed up.

Maybe go back to a pay service, ya that's a thought, when I did this everyone paid attention.

[jglider]

Using real world data, which some don't understand, you'd know this morning was sell. Keeping the S/T traders paradise alive and well.

C Ya

[jglider]

The Clintons and NAFTA made me sick. They also showed if they had full control speeding would spiral. While we were in an economic expansion I saw this as another straw to the camels back and made me more untrusting of government. As I was always slanted toward being self sufficient I took the next step. .. Few politicians alive can deny they've sold out part of our country.

Integrity was a rare commodity with Clinton and isn't any better with Trump .. Many that went along with the election steal idea did not get re-elected, fine with me. I still support many Libertarians, third party etc when possible. Hoping the Forward party isn't another full blown liberal group and maybe they will cause some unity or softness to the extremes. Meanwhile Byedumb shows the world how stupid he is. The thirst for one party rule is being questioned, it's a start.

Ukraine. Mixed feelings here as I feel this could have been prevented had some in NATO grown a pair months before it started. .

2008, bail out the banks. Gramps said many times, banks run the country and I agree to a point.... In the late 30s a movie titled Stagecoach was released. A line near the beginning of that show was, "What's good for the banks is good for the country". The line was from a dis-honest banker that only looked out for himself, sounds familiar.... But this crook got arrested and did a perp walk near the end of the movie.

4K-ish. Turkey Time was mentioned a couple months ago... Like going into mid Aug our 401K groups again made money.... Didn't waste my time with details going into Oct. However, at the Nov low the mid sep hi was mentioned..... Upside is likely limited for several weeks. 401Kers again raised cash but did not go to full cash like mid Aug.

Like Mid Sep,,,,. we are entering another important phase that could take a couple months to play out and confirm a few things... But should continue to be a traders paradise with various groups including the spooz..

Will be busy transferring data to the kids system for a month or so.

[easycome92]

Nice to hear you enjoyed your anniversary celebration. It is probably better to celebrate after you have completed your work if you can rather than interrupting your efforts.
I did not really become concerned about the debt until 2008 when the banks were bailed out with taxpayer dollars. My attention was drawn to the debt issue at that time. The war machine has been in full force for decades too, much to my chagrin. I definitely support Ukraine so far.
What did the Clintons do that disturbed you? Their lack of integrity was troubling, but Trump seems to be willing to do anything to try to reassert his power. I would prefer a president who could try to unite this country.
I thought the VA was totally supported by the government. Without the government support, I do not see how the VA or Medicare, Social Security would survive.
It is difficult to know how to do everything. The world is so more complicated now since high tech is so paramount and prevalent in our life. Being independent is a definite asset for sure.

Great work calling 4000+. It seems your thoughts of possibly getting to 4200 may occur during a Santa Claus rally.

It seems the debt ceiling,debt service and Mc Carthy's status in his party will make the future more problematic.
Are you seeing a significant correction next year? Your thoughts are always appreciated.

[jglider]

Was a good time.

Many hospitals take state and federal money, thus in most cases they have to take Medicare.. Private institutions can work around this. A massive default could bring on an issue, if this were to develop it wouldn't matter as this is the end some speak of. . Fun fact about 65% of medical facilities work with Medicare.. VA centers don't as it's not needed.

Fed has stayed the course as expected but by Feb they should slack off or be close to it. Before we left on our trip I threw a bunch of lazy money at CDs.

The self sufficient idea came about in 97. Had sold my last business, was looking to get away from population centers but not be a hermit. Had a small farm but mostly for our own needs..... in 05 my step daughter got the expansion started. The bullshit from the Clintons made me more aware of what could happen, way back then.

People talk about fellowship, comrades etc. This is at or near the top of the list. Like minded individuals that aren't afraid to break a sweat and create a few blisters along the way. No one expecting a hand out.. Everyone contributing in some manner be it labor, trades people, support for health care, teachers that teach not re-write history and legal assistants.

There were times I felt like a one legged man in an ass kicking contest. But I wouldn't trade all the work and planning away for anything.

There's no better reward than when a kid walks up to me, says thanks for showing them how to fix their bike, versus just fixing it to get him out of my hair...... Teach a man how to fish and he can sustain himself and family for life., No I'm not a religious nut.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 2 SPY Dec 07 2022 400.0 Put Limit 8.51 -- -- 15:16:59 11/21/22
 
Filled Sell to Close 1 SPY Nov 21 2022 376.0 Call Limit 18.59 -- -- 15:13:36 11/21/22

[easycome92]

I hope you enjoy your two weeks away. I noticed that you posted a while ago that your community has been preparing for independence for more than a decade. Smart move to be prepared for anything. I do wonder how people will fare in the not too distant future when medical emergencies occur. Will the hospitals accept Medicare? Your thoughts are always appreciated. I expect the Feds to fight inflation.Looking for a pullback

[jglider]

Many missed this. But if you had watched the bonds yesterday you would have known,,,,,,,,,,,,, to pay attention, or not

Will they buy the next dip or short into it?

Leaving for a few weeks.

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Nov 21 2022 376.0 Call Limit 7.62 -- -- 14:11:44 11/09/22

[jglider]

Generally my thinking too. Even goes along with some of the platforms of controlled spending and holding the line on taxes.

[easycome92]

My thought was that many Republicans would be opposed to lifting the cap on Medicare and perceive lifting the cap as a form of taxation.
People are definitely living longer and postponing the receipt of social security makes sense assuming there is sufficient time to plan.
I do not remember a time when companies were as able to pass on costs to the consumer the way it has happened now.
It seems that the Ronald Reagan Administration resulted in a lot of debt being incurred and it has continued.
At some point a responsible administration has to deal with debt incurred over the past forty years. I realize that many people have become quite rich since 2009. It seems there ought to be a fair way to tax profits before the US economy collapses.

[jglider]

talked months ago about energy running up into early Nov. Bet I was the only one that remembered.

Was the easiest trade out there but decided not to waste my time with the alert

PMs second easiest

GL

[jglider]

A couple weeks ago a bunch of us old farts were sitting around a campfire and this 31T debt subject was brought up. I mentioned that amounts to about 95K per person. One guy just shook his head and said, my great grandson just turned a year old. He's so thankful to the democrats for his debt. I reminded him this debt issue has been ongoing for over 20 years. Then there was a lot of head nodding.

I have no clue what'll bring them to their senses. Free markets haven't existed for decades. The cycles still work, but the pumping of money simply adds to the volatility. Many use the "V" word for corrections when in fact it works both ways.

I can remember when interests rates were 15% and more. At that time our debt was small. 40 years ago I would have killed to have a loan at 7%. When I was paying 15% I got up in the morning, laced up my boot straps and went to work. It made me more determined to succeed.....

Many think this free money game is the only way to live. Now people are crying like babies.

But per taxes on the rich. Within the oxymoron wording of the inflation reduction act, corporations will be seeing higher taxes. The tax hike will simply put a hike on the cost of goods mostly affecting the poor, again like Byedumbs energy policy hurting those the most that can least afford it.

Will dumbocrats ever wake up? They think they're getting a free lunch. How stupid.

Pants on fire Byedumb said gas was $5 a gallon when he took office. Many will believe it. But the left think nothing of firing up a jet to go campaign for another hypocrite or a photo opt while telling us to go green. Practice what you preach? Not in DC.

[easycome92]

Thank you for your reply.I do not see the Republicans willing to require very wealthy people to pay more taxes. But I do wonder how the US pays the interest to service the debt of 31 trillion dollars at approximately 4%.... It is essentially unfathomable to me .

[jglider]

Medicare and SS is a football few have the balls to go after.. One of our senators said retirement age should be later for some of the reasons I touched on. Said similar things for Medicare and caught a lot of flack from the free loaders.. But if no one has the guts to stand up and at least say something where does the crazyness end?

A few months back I posted the bond futures were suggesting tightening into next year. Have not checked since but expect the tightening to continue.

4K close? Yes, at some point. 4K is coincidental with the mid Sep cycle point and that 4k-ish price point. The mid Sep cycle separation was referring to a very bearish theme that could have developed had we not turned down in mid Sep. Thus in late Sep I said the traders theme I've been yapping about since mid Jan. is still likely.. But that price point does stick out like a sore thumb waiting to get nailed again..

[easycome92]

It seems the Feds will bump up rates twice before the holidays. I am surprised the market is holding up as well as it is. It appears companies are reporting better than I expected. Are you looking for a close over 4000? I believe your earlier post suggested you might be.

[easycome92]

Thank you very much for your reply to me. Your ideas have a lot of merit.I just cannot see the Congress working together to find a solution. It seems no one wants to pay taxes or a lift the cap.on Medicare or Social Security. Both parties are quite irresponsible. I do wonder if the US economy will ever be even remotely fiscally prudent.

[jglider]

Cycle separation since mid Sep was expected and has been amazing.

POIs are working, you have a couple left if notes were taken.

Haven't mentioned all of the POIs due to lack of contributing. 2 VST ones aren't too far away and will really shape things up.

When the cream is taken away the unknowing stay away.

[jglider]

Working with outside interests while the kids are running the show and doing a fine job. Proved to me the past 5-6 months they don't need me looking over their shoulder any more. With that in mind my time here will continue to be scarce, random and when it pleases me.

[bobjack]

Bot 2 SPY Oct 26 2022 368.0 Put Limit 3.12 -- -- 13:25:42 10/21/22 - Little Acct.

Bot 1 SPY Oct 26 2022 368.0 Put Limit 2.60 -- -- 13:49:09 10/21/22 - Tiny Acct.

So, is this gonna be a Wrong Way Peach Fuzz Crap Sandwich,
Guess we will know next Wednesday, Ehh Bliss

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Oct 26 2022 368.0 Put Limit 5.09 -- -- 11:19:57 10/21/22

[bobjack]

Bot 2 More JPM 2 Dec 22 ___106 Put @ 1.90 LMT 10/20/22___15:52:48

Hating Parrots can consume a person.

Thank You for Caring, and your past efforts.
In all honesty, Your efforts have been wasted on me. Never made me a penny, due to my ineptness, not your fault.
Knowing that we are in a whipsaw city, has been beneficial to me.
Hope Better days are in store for you. No Foul -- No hard feelings on my part.

Harry, (he hated parrots too) said, Come on Parrot, Make my day !!!!
Do you feel lucky, Parrot ???

[bobjack]

Bot 3 JPM 2 Dec 22 ___106 Put @ 3.50 LMT 10/14/22___14:16:29

[jglider]

mostly a big ole whipsaw since my last appearance. Expect this to continue for a while. Many will look at this wrong. I bet many are still blaming Russia, what a joke.

Snowing today, took a fast break

chow

[bobjack]

Sold 2 SPY 14 Oct 22 357 Call @ 9.62 LMT 10/13/22 16:01:43

[bobjack]

Bot +2 AAPL 14 Oct 22 142 Call @ 1.20 LMT 10/13/22 12:02:59

[bobjack]

Bot +2 SPY 14 Oct 22 357 Call @ 3.07 LMT 10/13/22 11:14:18

Expired worthless - Filled Buy +3 SPY 7 Oct 22 379 Call @ 2.17 LMT
10/5/22 12:50:26 Well, Crap

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Oct 21 2022 348.0 Put Limit 3.75 -- -- 11:07:39 10/10/22

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Oct 21 2022 320.0 Put Limit 0.60 -- -- 15:31:30 10/07/22

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 2 SPY Oct 07 2022 376.0 Call Market 4.44 -- -- 14:52:20 10/05/22

Filled Sell to Close 2 SPY Oct 05 2022 373.0 Call Market 4.23 -- -- 14:48:34 10/05/22

[bobjack]

Filled Buy +3 SPY 7 Oct 22 379 Call @ 2.17 LMT
10/5/22 12:50:26

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Oct 05 2022 373.0 Call Market 4.58 -- -- 13:55:07 10/04/22

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Oct 05 2022 373.0 Call Market 4.58 -- -- 13:55:07 10/04/22

Filled Sell to Close 1 SPY Oct 05 2022 367.0 Call Limit 9.50 -- -- 13:52:33 10/04/22

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 1 SPY Oct 05 2022 367.0 Call Limit 4.97 -- -- 09:34:48 09/28/22

[BlissBull]

Filled Sell to Close 2 SPY Sep 26 2022 362.0 Call Market 2.46 -- -- 15:59:02 09/26/22

[BlissBull]

Filled Buy to Open 2 SPY Sep 26 2022 362.0 Call Limit 5.20 -- -- 11:13:14 09/26/22

Filled Sell to Close 1 SPY Oct 21 2022 321.0 Put Market 1.19 -- -- 11:07:37 09/26/22