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Last days to buy at a discount. Ruling most likely coming Wednesday
Despite All *Retail Giant Recovers SEARS MORE SOLID THAN EVER
And if i get to pick my own judge and where i will file, i would most like pick one that will rule in my favor...and with billions of dollar...lampert best interest is to know where to file to be in his favor.
One thing i know is that sears had the option to pick anywhere they want to file the bk in the country...instead they pick new york...and also judge Drain. In a way i feel that sears picked the Judge knowing what the outcome might be...just my opinion...so everything is really a theatrical and everyone is just playing out their part.
When does this part happen
I thought that a couple of years ago PBGC saw or felt that there was real risk of sears going into Bk so they took a 1.7 billion dollar position into kenmore and diehard to off set the short fall in the sears pension. the PBGC was upset because APA gave a value of 0 for kenmore and diehard. Also in all the dockets that where filed before and on friday I didnt see any that included anything from PBGC. just a couple of news articals. Also if you go to their web side there is a statement on their home page saying that they are taking over the sears pension.
hahahahahaha I dont care
Crazy weeeeeeeeeeeek coming to SHLDQ
sorry I thought you where shorting it..
It is too late here to review the filings tonight.
I will answer your 3 posts tomorrow.
Whose shorting it. I have been trading in and out of it since .33 cents. I buy ride it up then sell pullback buy back in and ride it up. I always invest the same amount but on every pullback I get additional shares. I got out Friday at .545 now I want to buy back in between .48 and .44
Now we are at the tricky part of the game because the next 3 days if I get in tomorrow in the mid 40s we may not see the large run ups like we have seen in January
Lets get legitimate answers no stupid answers from people who are not familiar with creditors and bankruptcy proceedings.
Remember all these unsecured creditors will be heard in court and the judge will have to render a decision. We know the Pension Bureau is lobbying for 1.4 billion. Say Judge Drain sides with them and says royalties from Sears brands must still be paid. That is a blow.
Remember there could be close to 100 Billion dollars in debt owed to Unsecured creditors and it seems like 99% of the posters on here think Judge Drain will wipe the slate clean. And Creditors will not get a penny.
I see Judge Drain siding with the Pension Bureau because that would be bad optics. I also see other unsecured creditors prevailing.
My opinion is the stock will trade sideways during these hearings and once it is all hashed out and every creditor heard then the stock will begin to act. I am going to roll the dice and get in tomorrow between .44 and .48. Then I will sit nervously through the next three days hoping for good results for ESL
Pazzo you do realize that article states the commons must remain intact for retention of the NOL's. Arent you shorting this stock?
If you want a good brief on Sears Net Operating Losses just read this article.
NOLs are Sears most valuable asset
No one needs to be hand held with THEIR MONEY...
Most shorts have yet to cover just sayin'
Lol if you say so.
NP!!! $1s coming
80 cents soon! Could easily get there tomorrow! Lets see if more people load up before the big news!
Yes looking for high .39s tomorrow
Thank you for the update sir.
Sorry correct was Ackman typo error i was comparing bk possibilties
if you want to know what actually happened with ggp, read this:
https://turnaround.org/sites/default/files/5.%20Paper%20-%20GGP%20-%20NYU.pdf
eddie lampert had nothing to do with getting ggp out of bankruptcy. it was bill ackman who engineered ggp's emergence from bk.
ggp didn't have the problem of more liabilities than assets. their problem was an inability to rollover or refinance their debt. the crash had just occurred. ackman primarily came in prior to bk, purchased a lot of the debt and equity and when ggp filed ackman was in the catbirds seat as a white knight.
nobody was left holding the bag in that case. i believe all creditors were made whole and all commons survived in a 1 for 1 exchange
For you...we are sitting good over here with our shares...
for those that do not know it was Edie Lampert who got them out of CHAPTER 11, I was there sold my common share under 29 bucks made a loot. Will do the same here I trust Eddie let it play.
Lampert said he will maximize shareholder value with the buy out offer.
SHLDQ statistics:
1) Sears/Kmart has a 109 Million OS
2) Less than 30 Million Float
3) Current Market Cap of $58 Million
4) The top 425 profitable Sears/Kmart stores will remain intact
5) $5.2 Billion buyout accepted last week and to be confirmed by Judge Drain this week
6) $5.2 Billion divided by 400 stores is $13,000,000 valuation per store
7) Current Market Cap of $58 Million divided by 400 stores is $145,000 per store
8) CEO and insiders own over 70% of the float
9) At least 40,000 US jobs are
saved
10) Share structure remains intact and no evidence otherwise than scare tactics on IHub by Shorts
11) Over 11 Million shares of the less than 30 million Float have been shorted
12) The Buyout has been accepted by Sears and now only needs Judge Drain’s approval
13) $5,200,000,000 buyout / 109,200,000 shares = $47.61/share
Judge Gropper told the rest of the U.S. commercial real estate industry, “I urge you to avoid Chapter 11 and restructure out of court if possible.”
for the purpose of comparison GGP took a year to get out of BK OWED Billions of dollars everyone said common will get nothing based on court documents and how people interpreting the law. was hush hush as they were sifting through the process the price was going up slowly every day and boom there was this release. I believe they keeping a lid on Common Shares till later after approval.
see bellow link for comparison
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-generalgrowth/general-growth-cleared-to-exit-bankruptcy-idUSTRE69K41320101022
remember, if the judge rules against els that esl is a secured creditor with first take on some of the properties. he made sure his loans were secured by property.
either way, lampert wins but he wins much bigger if his bid is approved.
what scheme? get the Left outta your head. Lambert bought back 5billion shares with his own/esl money.
it looks to me that lambert and friends would lose 40+ million at current pps and if the judge declines the deal he could be out 60 milion.. the 40 million isnt much to lambert and friends but the potential of said share could be huge.. at $10 pps that is a three quarter of a billion.. if he swings the business around and competes with similar stores Kohles, target, walmart and Kroger, their holdings could be in the billions. if he expands his partnership with amazon/ wholefoods..... the plan is to reduce footprint 20 to 30k sqft per store the average sears store is 138000sqft whole lot of room in good locations for wholefoods. its just a hunch but entertain this. kohls is 66.69pps, target is 71.17pps kroger 28.07pps, walmart 93.86pps with an average pps between them of 64.94pps 4.9 billion for their commons. Now I know that isnt a reality, but amazon is looking to expand its wholefoods footprint, sears has leases or outright own stores that are bigger than their purposed square footage... foot traffic for sears and relestate for amazon.. ok I'll put down the pipe but still..
Thank you for that so first pop will happen if Judge approves the deal... next pop will happen if commons survive.
I have a same game plan to hold long if judge approves it in the favor of Lampert and sears. If not peace to the Middle East!!
GLTU
if the judge doesn't approve i'm out and hope to not have a total loss.
if the judge approves, i'm holding until something definitive comes out re: the por. again, if commons don't survive i'm out and hope to not have a total loss.
if the por comes out and the commons survive, i am skeptical newco will have a game plan which keeps the stores viable and i will be looking for an exit point within a 1-3 year timeframe.
if newco becomes a reit, i will feel a little more encouraged about longer term prospects which would include selectively repurposing stores. i believe there is a lot of upside in the chicago metro corporate headquarters. they have over 2 million square feet of office space which over time could produce great value. additionally, i believe they have over 200 acres in their corporate hq site which can be developed.
i hold no prospects this will be a $40 stock. i would feel great if this were to get into the $10-$15 range.
who knows? maybe eddie will surprise us all.
if there really are 12mm shares short and some type of insane squeeze were to occur, i might look to cash out.
i'm not in this looking for a double or triple. already have more than a double and can't really sit on my computer to day trade and maximize flips.
This month we shall hit one year high and end of the year shall hit three year high...
SHLD(Q) is not going out...
GL
Under Lampert’s guidance the company hasn’t turned a profit since 2010
At issue on Monday will also likely be the motivations behind Lampert’s efforts to save Sears. Its unsecured creditors have cast doubt in the altruism of Lampert’s efforts. They say his proposed deal is “nothing but the final fulfillment of a years long scheme to rob Sears and its creditors of assets and employees of jobs while lining Lampert’s and ESL’s own pockets.” They also doubt Sears’ post-bankruptcy viability and its ability to avoid a second trip to bankruptcy court
What your game plan... I’m holding 50k also... added 15k more on the last dip at .46.... any suggestions? I have a game plan but wanna know what’s your approach for next week!!!
The share price does not support that idea.
no, i don't think that. i'm holding 40k shares and i do think commons will survive in some way which is why i'm still holding.
my basis is .232 so if it gets flushed it's a scratch, not a cut, a wound, or anything fatal for me.
i still look at all of the stock esl/lampert and his other entities own and even though he might trade his debt for shares in newco (transform holdco) why wouldn't he want to get additional consideration for his commons? with only 109 million shares outstanding and he and his entities have control over 70+% of those shares, he's not giving up much to have ALL commons preserved, again, in some fashion.
also seems retaining all or a portion of the nol's is linked to common shareholder survival.
if you decide to hold on until certainty is obtained, the rush to the exits if commons are screwed will probably mean a severe buzzcut.
that could all happen this week if esl's bid is not approved by the court. even if esl's bid is approved it will probably be weeks and weeks before a por provides any certainty.
linda,
why does transform holdco have to merge with sears holdings if holdco has purchased specific assets (a lot of which gave rise to the nols at issue)?
my thought (totally uneducated by my own admission) is that the sears holding company will in fact be liquidated and go away and there will be nothing left to merge with newco.
notice in the example given on the diagram on page 85 of 157, the debtor (shc in our case) was left with the unwanted assets (i.e. the closed stores and some other things which it is liquidating) and then according to the verbiage in the example "debtor then planned to liquidate, distributing its remaining assets to debtor's claimholders. (esl is no longer a claimholder at this point).
also note on page 86 of 157 that debtor must retain more than an INSIGNIFICANT active trade or business. the complete discussion on page 86 of 157 leads me to think sch will not survive to be merged.
So you really think current shareholders are screwed??
linda,
as noted on page 78 of 157 of docket 2339, the nol's were specific to various entities within the sears umbrella. there is some discussion which seems to indicate all of the nol's might not flow as a lump sum because of that.
also, cancellation of debt may be specific to an entity and that could cause a reduction in nol's via the cod.
for instance, it would seem that the cancellation of $1.3 billion of esl debt would serve to reduce some of the nol.
deloitte is still working on those issues.
and to think i was departing for the evening.
linda, you asked:
"How can ESL’s Debt cancellation be converted
into NEWCO - Transform Holdco - Stock when Newco
is a separate Entity from Sears Holdings?
May I ask where you read the above? Thanks."
my first thought would be that newco, which IS a separate entity from shc, will be issuing shares in its own company (i.e. newco) and some of those shares will be issued to esl (probably as newco's main principal investor/owner) in consideration for what esl contributed to newco as part of the purchase price paid to shc. that contribution (esl's secured debt from shc) is what is being contributed and the compensation for that debt will be shares of newco.
so, where did this scheme get hatched? look at page 85 of 157 of docket 2339. that diagram represents a bc section 363 exchange which was put forth as one way to preserve some/all of the nol's for newco. while that specific diagram was based on an irs private letter ruling to some other company, deloitte or weil used it as an example of what could be done in the particular case of transform holdco providing consideration to shc (in this case, partially in the form of a credit bid).
don't try downloading docket 2344 on your phone or it will blow up or lock up. it is quite long.
look on page 237 of 598 of docket 2344 and starting at line 20 which continues onto page 238 of 598 from lines 1-3 there is a specific provision in esl's revised bid (which is the bid accepted by shc as a qualified bid) which provides for the issuance of newco stock in exchange for the credit bid.
shc's consideration is $1.3 billion in debt to esl which they do not have to repay and esl's consideration is stock in newco.
IF, IF, IF esl's bid is approved by the court, it is my expectation that transform holdco will get a "real" name, a filing/prospectus will be submitted to the sec authorizing shares in the newly named company, and some of those shares will be issued to esl in consideration of the $1.3 billion debt cancellation.
it is my expectation that shldq shares will be cancelled and IF, IF, IF those shares do not become worthless, we will see in a plan of reorganization a provision for issuance of newco (whatever the renamed company is) shares to commons (in some fashion) probably to some other secured creditors, and then to unsecured creditors as well.
in order to determine what number of shares might go to the creditors, it seems that knowing the surplus from the shc liquidation is paramount, unless creditors waiting to be paid agree to take newco shares in exchange for cancelling their debt. at that point, not sure, but if there is still any surplus remaining, that might go to transform holdco (real named company)
those are my thoughts on how this might play out but the exchange of debt for shares was part of esl's revised bid as noted above.
Short $ Tiny compared to Sears sorry guys you really don't compare
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