Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG)

[tsoprano-1]

Starting to get some traction here. Another dip and I double up. But, may not get that chance with tax loss selling waning. Merry Christmas to all.

T

[geodan]

Wow STNG picked in SeekingAlphaArticle as top gainer

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4029722-2-oil-related-stocks-50minus-90-percent-upside link has charts

Great report.

The first idea is Scorpio Tankers, which owns the largest modern tanker fleet in the world and faces positive macro momentum over the next three years. STNG has performed poorly in the stock market over the past year, down nearly 50%, but price action has recently turned the corner as product tanker rates have also started to lift. Shares currently trade at $4.39 and the firm offers an 11.4% fixed-rate dividend. Around three weeks ago, on 16 November, STNG insiders bought shares at $4.45, notable since this was their first major open market purchase.



My personal price target is $6.50, representing upside of 48% from current share pricing. If product tanker rates surge in 2017-2018, this price target could move far higher, but I am basing the current level on a mixture of NAV (i.e. tangible book) and a very conservative multiple (5x) to normalized cash flow potential.

Investors who wish to see more information on the bullish case for this stock should view the November 2016 Corporate Presentation. Slide 12 highlights its global leading positions:



Not only does STNG have the world's largest fleets, but it also has the world's most modern assets and the largest product tanker spot market trading enterprise. This unrivaled scale and modernity is especially important as the industry faces two pivotal catalysts in 2017 and 2020: Ballast Water Treatment ("BWT") and Low Sulfur Emissions requirements. Slide 6 highlights how STNG's assets are markedly better than their non-eco counterparts.



Fellow Seeking Alpha author James Catlin has covered both the Ballast Water catalyst and the IMO emissions mandate in several exclusive reports which are now available for free public access. I recommend reading both of these reports as well as subsequent comments for a look into how these initiatives potentially establish STNG on the cusp of a bullish super cycle in rates as forward product transport demand is likely to easily outpace net global fleet growth, especially in the MR and Handy segments.

Scorpio Tankers has massive cash flow potential even in years with middling/average rate performance. During 2015, STNG had a smaller owned fleet and pulled in a total of $392M in operating cash flow, a massive amount compared to the current market capitalization of just $766M. Over the past 9 months, rates have been fairly weak due to a temporary global fleet dislocation, and STNG has still managed to pull in $152M of cash. The current share pricing represents around 4x P/CF on a fairly weak year and under 2x P/CF for an above-average performance.

Considering its globally supreme fleet, beneficial macro tailwinds, and cash flow potential - a price target of $6.50/sh appears almost laughably small. The current pricing of $4.39 is almost indefensible, especially as STNG traded far higher in 2012-2014 when the market rates were weaker, forward prospects were more questionable, and STNG faced enormous orderbook liabilities. This is a classic case of broad market pessimism, but of course there are a few risk factors.

STNG Risk Factors

Despite what I believe is large upside potential, an investment in STNG is certainly speculative and includes a few risk factors, the primary of which are heavy exposure to spot markets, fairly high financial leverage, and unproven macro benefits.

STNG has all but five of its vessels exposed to the spot markets, which are prone to wild fluctuations. The spot market is exactly where STNG wants to be if rates continue to lift, but it also means there is far less downside protection if rates transition to a prolonged slump. The one bullish caveat is that Scorpio's fleet tends to outperform the global benchmark by at least $2k/day (yearly average) due to its modern and efficient assets. Whatever spot rates are available, STNG has a history of clear outperformance (ref: slide 11).

STNG's financial leverage is fairly high due to its rapid expansion pace. Over the past three years, it has deployed over $2.5B into its fleet and it currently has $1.9B in long-term debt and $273M in remaining obligations to deliver the final 10 vessels through Q1-18. This risk is partially offset by STNG's ability to generate massive cash flow even with marginal spot rates, but is still a significant concern for investors.

The final risk is the unproven macro benefits. Although there's significant potential for a supercycle in product rates over the next few years, this is also based on a number of bullish assumptions including high global refinery utilization, continuing global trade activity, and higher scrapping due to the ballast water treatment requirements. If these macro events fail to occur, market rates could be similar to the trough period from 2011-2014.

[geodan]

STNG really ripping now+.29 and the 10%+ divvy for dessert

[geodan]

Very kind of you T, yes, when he was -$400mill

[tsoprano-1]

Geo, STNG and NSU running. Do you now have more money than Trump???
I envy you, but you deserve it with the picks you have made. Keep up the good work. I need money for a lake home, so I will be following you closely.;)

T

[geodan]

Its getting even better +5%

Huge engulf now, looks like start of wave 3 up.

[tsoprano-1]

I agree. Hoping to add soon.

T

[geodan]

Best 2 day pattern on STNG today, green engulf of red hammer

I am still holding STNG after big divvy ExDiv day, it looks like good long terms hold and those big divvys keep coming.

[tsoprano-1]

Geo, I have been part of action on BWMG. Now bidding 150,000@.0053. New article from SA on NSU, beside the article I posted from Stansberry on NSU board.

T

[geodan]

T,STNG has broken all 3 downtrendlines going back 1.5 years, in last 2 days.

See DRYS down 80% from yesterday, but STNG is even. STNG in much, much better shape.

BTW have you seen action on BWMG today? I topped off, but most of buying was others. I am 4.7%. Its on 1 year high now.

Cheers

[tsoprano-1]

Thanks geo.

T

[geodan]

Nov 16 (Reuters) - Scorpio Tankers Inc(STNG)

* Announces purchase of common shares by Scorpio Services Holding Limited

* Scorpio Services Holding Limited has purchased an aggregate of 300,000 common shares of company at an average price of $4.45/share Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage:

[geodan]

Yes T, I had DRYS in past, but not crying I got out at small profit months ago. 5 to 70 this week.

STNG is a big holding of mine, over 10% yield. And got in at bottom. Its my main shipping stock.

SAEX screaming up, just bot it. FF just bot 40% this week, so some stocks really starting to fly. Check 2 year chart, playing it to survive.

Shipping recovery bodes well for world econ, and sailors/investors.

CET.to a semi risky buy lately for me, down 90% last two years, still cashflowing. Directional drilling.

Cheers

[tsoprano-1]

Geo, did you notice some of the shipping stocks?
1. SINO SINO-GLOBAL SHPPING 3.49 5.25 3.45 4.64 +2.22 +91.74% 14,405,936 +100 Green Daily 1.090000 2016-11-07 Green Weekly 1.150000 2016-11-08 Green Monthly 3.000000 2016-11-16 entry signal
2. DRYS DRYSHIPS 55.00 102.00 45.40 73.80 +30.94 +42.38% 10,131,728 +90 Green Daily 0.389800 2016-11-01 Green Weekly 0.435800 2016-11-01 Green Monthly 1.250300 2016-11-01 entry signal
3. TGT TARGET 77.7000 78.3000 76.7600 76.8095 +5.3695 +7.52% 8,989,346 +100 Green Daily 69.250000 2016-11-10 Green Weekly 69.250000 2016-11-10 Green Monthly 76.440000 2016-11-16 entry signal
4. FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC 13.700 13.960 13.650 13.785 -0.205 -1.47% 8,320,136 +90 Green Daily 11.240000 2016-11-07 Green Weekly 11.180000 2016-10-31 Green Monthly 13.040000 2016-11-09 entry signal
5. DCIX DIANA CONTAINERSHIPS 8.460 18.950 8.270 18.828 +12.688 +206.64% 7,948,570 +100 Green Daily 2.370000 2016-11-14 Green Weekly 2.630000 2016-11-15 Green Monthly 4.220000 2016-11-15 entry signal
6. WFC WELLS FARGO 51.86 52.17 51.45 51.58 -1.01 -1.92% 7,435,060 +90 Green Daily 45.790000 2016-11-08 Green Weekly 45.920000 2016-10-26 Green Monthly 51.000000 2016-11-10 entry signal
7. ESEA EUROSEAS 5.95 6.97 5.40 6.60 +2.24 +51.38% 6,282,615 +100 Green Daily 1.598400 2016-11-11 Green Weekly 1.870000 2016-11-14 Green Monthly 3.750000 2016-11-15 entry signal
8. SHIP SEANERGY MARITIME 6.0 8.4 5.7 8.0 +3.2 +66.67% 6,204,515 +100 Green Daily 2.399900 2016-11-11 Green Weekly 2.900000 2016-11-15 Green Monthly 7.900000 2016-11-16 entry signal
9. S SPRINT 7.710 7.810 7.545 7.560 -0.180 -2.33% 5,997,489 +90 Green Daily 6.240000 2016-11-04 Green Weekly 7.160000 2016-11-09 Green Monthly 7.160000 2016-11-09 entry signal
10. MU MICRON TECH 17.940 18.170 17.930 18.114 +0.014 +0.08% 5,517,151 +100 Green Daily 17.020000 2016-11-07 Green Weekly 17.930000 2016-11-14 Green Monthly 12.405000 2016-05-27 entry signal

[tsoprano-1]

I generally take downgrades as a buy signal. Ever notice how they shut the barn door after all the cows are out? Why downgrade after stock drops? They should do it before, if they were any good at their jobs. Plus they downgrade if they want to get a position sometimes.

T

[geodan]

+13%,Song"We are in the Money" comes to mind.

Now 4.58 its screaming up, only news is it was downgraded by Deutsche Bank. Maybe reason why, DB is going broke so seen as positive.

STNG seems to have just been discovered.

Cheers

[geodan]

Huge day, 7% gain

[geodan]

4% gain and engulfing candle off the bottom, very good day for STNG and bot more under 3.80.

[geodan]

13.5%Yield+ Engulfing candle todayBot More

STNG was my main buy today, very good pattern today after new low yesterday.

[Boogie_nights]

He said he's ready to buy more, I believe I'm going to invest in some also...

[geodan]

Thanks, DHT looks good just checked it out, 20% div? Yahoo says that. Ah see they just dropped the Div today to .02 and stock dropped. Part of the reason their valuation is so low today.

[Boogie_nights]

Right on... that's what a friend of mine who has stocks in DHT is saying..

[geodan]

The #s on it are good, I bot more today. the PE is 4 https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=STNG
It will be more fun when it does go up. Market tends to do best in January, would expect a strong rally by then in STNG.

[Boogie_nights]

It keeps going down for me, I bought it at $5.38 back in July/Aug... just waiting for it to rise...?

[tsoprano-1]

Not a clue. This cluelessness led to me buying HZRN and watching it go down close to a buck after I filled. Looks like I will be averaging down again. Takes 10 months of dividends to make that up. Ouch.

T

[geodan]

Good for you. On STNG it went hugely up in morn, any idea why?

[tsoprano-1]

Got a little more STNG today at 3.97. Still looking to get more. Did get out of another 60,000 Metanor. 70,000 more to go. Like a weight has been lifted.

T

[geodan]

I bot another 2,000 3.92, see no reason for drop, and looked.

[SmartMoney247]

Buy below 4. Easy money. Smart money

[tsoprano-1]

I bought based on an SA article. Looks good to me. Still accumulating.

T

[hamilton]

Following the Q results,

"Deutsche Bank Reiterates Scorpio Tankers As Top Pick, Maintains Buy And $9 PT"
7:23 am ET July 29, 2016 (Benzinga)

[hamilton]

I bought this Friday when I saw STNG on Credit Suisse's Best Ideas List.

CS has a $10 target and summarized: "STNG is the BETA play for the product tanker trade with a lot of optionality (dividends, buybacks, yield spinoff). The company should benefit from a pickup in product tanker dayrates as US exports ramp."

[Scootter82]

Dead board lol. In for a few $K at 4.26.

[OB_WEALTH_INC]

STNG MAKING A BIG MOVE

[Timothy Smith]

Credit Suisse today reiterated its Outperform ratings and raised its 2015 earnings estimates on tanker companies Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE:TNP), Scorpio Tankers (NYSE:STNG) and Euronav (NYSE:EURN).

[Timothy Smith]

Scorpio Tankers (NYSE:STNG) +3% premarket after announcing a new $250M share repurchase program.

[free_bee]

So, it must be that I'm following the same kind of people like you. Which 2 are you trying to buy? MFBP had a lot of insider buy a month ago. I paid 3.35 but the book value is a lot more. BBBI is mostly dead and it sucks but the bank is doing good in the Beverly Hills of Michigan. BMNM, I had it since it was around 16 cents but then I sold it when it went up and got to buy again today. But not many shares.

For most of my stock picks, my credit goes to 56Chevy. He has helped everyone a lot. There are several other IDs as well who are equally nice to follow. Following you as well. :)

[swampboots]

Every one you mentioned I either have (3) and other 2 trying to buy, never happened like that, yikes!

[free_bee]

Thanks for the good words. It's also like..As Buffett says: “If you don’t know jewelry, know the jeweler”. Here at ihub, there are some awesome jewelers.

[swampboots]

Member marked you as you are smart. Why hit a baseball if Ted Williams will always swing for you. all is not self-derived .You have some fine stock picks!

[diannedawn]

Interesting...Thanks for the ideas!
:)

LPHI is definitely a gamble...
but there was one insider who purchased a lot this past year,
and others on the inside hold a lot of shares.

I like it when the insiders feel the pinch TOO
if the share price tanks!
:)

Good luck!

[free_bee]

I don't particularly follow stocks but rather follow some posters and what they normally choose are unique stocks that only they talk about. Check out, TEXC, GLGI, BMNM, BBBI, MFBP (there isn't a board for MFBP and the company just announced a 12.5 cents per share o special dividend. If you buy today, you'll get it by next week)..and few others..All these are profitable at this time and I hope growing silently.

I almost bought some shares of CANF this morning around 5.5 but opted to buy BMNM. Read somewhere that CANF recently sold their stocks for 6.6 per share but know nothing more about CANF so I passed. I'm going to check on LPHI.

[diannedawn]

I found some others that fared well

I've found that the best ones, are the ones no one else follows!
Has that been your experience too?

[free_bee]

Yes, no hunters on this board. I never owned this stock though..lol. But I found some others that fared well. Happy new year to you as well.

[diannedawn]

Hasn't been a bad year for a stock no one else cares about, eh?

:)

Let's hope the trend continues in 2014!
Happy New Year!!!

[free_bee]

Here I join you.

[diannedawn]

Funny...I must be the lone "follower"
yet this seems to be doing better than most in this sector...

[Penny Roger$]

~ Monday! $STNG ~ Earnings posted, pending or coming soon! In Charts and Links Below!

~ $STNG ~ Earnings expected on Monday *
Want more like this? Search Keyword: MACMONEY >>> http://tinyurl.com/MACMONEY <<<
One or more of many earnings sites has alerted this security has or will be posting earnings on or around the day of this message.








http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=STNG&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p88783918276&a=237480049




http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=STNG&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p54550695994



~ Google Finance: http://www.google.com/finance?q=STNG
~ Google Fin Options: hhttp://www.google.com/finance/option_chain?q=STNG#
~ Yahoo! Finance ~ Stats: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=STNG+Key+Statistics
~ Yahoo! Finance ~ Profile: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=STNG
Finviz: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=STNG
~ BusyStock: http://busystock.com/i.php?s=STNG&v=2


<<<<<< http://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks.asp?symbol=STNG >>>>>>



http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/post_prvt.aspx?user=251916

*If the earnings date is in error please ignore error. I do my best.

[Penny Roger$]

Scorpio Tankers Inc. is engaged in seaborne transportation of crude oil and refined petroleum products in the international shipping markets. The Company’s subsidiaries include Noemi Shipping Company Limited, Senatore Shipping Company Limited, Venice Shipping Company Limited and Sting LLC. The Company’s vessels are technically managed by Scorpio Commercial Management S.A.M. (SCM). The Company’s vessels are technically managed by Scorpio Ship Management S.A.M. (SSM).

http://www.google.com/finance?q=STNG