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littlefish- AAOI
You have a good point. I was going by what several posters on Yahoo Finance were saying. and I assumed. I will have to check that out further. Either way, if the company feels they could do $300M yet in 2024, and $500M-$600M next year, this whole story becomes one of trust, as if they hit their numbers, the stock is way under valued.
You sure bout that?
“I found out this morning, AFTER my not to trust post, that the CEO had been buying quite a few shares around $13 a few weeks ago.”
Two days ago you said: “… and insiders were buying at $12+ only a few weeks ago.”
To be accurate, the CEO net sold a lot more than he bought (to cover taxes I believe on zero cost options). And his sells were below his recent one time buy a bit under $13.
All IMO.
PS- several of us here have made six figures on stocks that traded maybe $10k-$20k a day or less previously (I’m not alone). You just have to do more homework than guessing at a fwd PE and project a growth rate.
TDA v Schwab I like that feature on TDA as well. Another thing I really don't like on Schwab, but maybe I'm just not using it correctly, is that if you go to order status, there's no way to sort by Buy and Sell. So if you have tons of orders out there, its messy to just review only BUYS or SELLS, which I find helps me.
On the flip side; with TDA, when you look at your orders open orders, it only lets you know if its a Day or GTC. It does not tell you if an order is extended hours, or day plus extended hours, or gtc + extended hours. Schwab does. I have accidentally placed 'Day' orders on TDA when I meant it to be premarket or premarket + day many times.
best.
KIK- SKAS
I guess I was wondering the level of risk you're willing to take in the stock. I mean if the bid/ask is 10% apart, and it only does 700 shares a day on average, I can only imagine what the stock would tank to if there was bad news, and you wanted to get out- yikes ! I guess I don't have that level of trust in any company on earth, yet a tiny microcap !
Schwab - I noticed that, also. I use that "reuse" feature at Ameritrade all the time. I am going to miss that. I have accounts moving over this weekend.
I was very disappointed when I heard that they were going to bring over the TOS platform which I despise. It sounds like people either love it or hate it. I'm in the hater camp.
Not that it's any of your business, but I have 13000 SKAS at an average cost of $5.15
Why do you ask??
Schwab order entry is more tedious than at Ameritrade ..... I often like to enter a stack of small orders at different price points .... at Ameritrade one can click "reuse" on open or filled orders to generate a duplicate, then just change the price and submit. On Schwab it seems that there is no "reuse" feature and each order must be entered separately. And one has to acknowledge that it's similar to an existing order. A lot more clicks and trade ticket edits overall.
FF - No, I have no idea. Their earnings have historically been all over the place. Their revenues can go up and down like a yo-yo from quarter to quarter. And then there's the gain/loss on their hedging positions each quarter. You would think things wouldn't be terribly bad after issuing that $2.50 special dividend recently. I'm not holding any presently.
Do you by chance know which analyst covers PSIX?
SKAS- KIK- Average daily volume 741 ?
Bid $10/Ask $11 How many shares do you own ?
SKAS($10.12) printing 7-year high; P/E soars to 4
AAOI- I didn't listen to the CC last night
and that hurt me. I found out this morning, AFTER my not to trust post, that the CEO had been buying quite a few shares around $13 a few weeks ago, and that in the CC, they said they expect to do another $200M in revenues for 2024, and they expect $500-$600M next year. If this is true, the stock is likely worth around $20+. Of course the company has missed guidance already, and it's now a trust issue. If you believe them, the stock is a strong buy here in the $10s this morning.
KIK- I found out the CEO bought over 32K shares
@ around $12-$14 a few weeks ago. I should have looked into that before I sold after hours yesterday. So my post on not trusting them might be pre mature. I mean they do have a $300M contract with MSFT still, so giving it a shot again
FF reports today after the close. Any sense of how the quarter will look? Guess it depends on all the 1-timers. Reporting Friday AH usually not good, but it was delayed from yesterday. Tough comp and seasonally might be a weaker quarter (below). Risk/reward in the $5's seems decent though.
From the 10K-
Cyclicality and Seasonality
Biodiesel producers have historically experienced seasonal fluctuations in demand for biodiesel. Biodiesel demand has tended to be lower during the winter in northern and Midwestern states due to historical concerns about biodiesel’s ability to operate optimally in cold weather as compared to petrodiesel. This seasonal fluctuation has been strongest for biodiesel made from animal fats and used cooking oils. Biodiesel made from such feedstocks has a higher cloud point (which is the point at which a fuel begins to gel) than biodiesel produced from vegetable oils, such as soybean, canola, or crude corn oil.
The mandate for biodiesel usage as established by RFS2 may interject an additional seasonal fluctuation in our biodiesel business. Once the mandate for a calendar year is met, or is anticipated to be met, demand for biodiesel may decrease.
re PSIX($2.53): the 2024 EPS estimate according to Yahoo Finance has moved from $1.22 60 days ago, to $1.55 7 days ago, to $1.75 currently. Also, the analyst's price target is $10/share
I'm adding again today...
Buy AAOI?! Less than an hour ago you said "I don't trust management guidance of $500M next year. They've come short every quarter on guidance. Amazingly investors seem to believe them- too much for me"
Sell IART $25.29,Buy AAOI $10.61
Sell 1600 IART @ $25.29 = $40,464
Buy 3500 AAOI @ $10.61 = $37135
Cash $3329
AAOI +.33 to 10.87, after hitting a high of 11.86 ..... the conf call was bullish on the 2nd half of 2024 and they expect an overall profitable year on an adj EPS basis .... that implies adj EPS of up to $0.60+ for the 2nd half, but that remains to be seen -
Conf Call -
With the improvement we expect in the second half, we continue to believe that 2024 can be our first full year of non-GAAP profitability since 2018.
I've never really understood the appeal of this one
...ain't that the truth! Agreed
Wow crazy reversal on AAOI! From crashing to the $8's in AH yest. To a high in the $11.80's this morning?!? I don't get it...but I've never really understood the appeal of this one.
AAOI - I thought the last part of the analyst commentary sounded fairly bullish.
Applied Optoelectronics price target lowered by $4 at Rosenblatt, here's why
TheFlyontheWall.com - May 10 08:24 EDT
Rosenblatt analyst Mike Genovese lowered the firm's price target on Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) to $16 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Q1 revenues and Q2 revenue guidance were "disappointing" due to slower initial ramp of Microsoft (MSFT) 400G orders and slower start to the DOCSIS 4.0 amplifier cycle, the analyst tells investors. However, given significantly expanding customer activity for 400G, 800G, and 1.6T transceivers for Hyper Scale Data Center operators and technology suppliers, the outlook for the second half and 2025 has improved, the analyst added. While the firm is trimming its price target it contends that its "new 2H24 estimates look conservative, as do our 2025 estimates that we are raising."
AAOI($10.87) whipsaws investors; now up and powering higher
I didn't see anything in the report to account for the reversal, did you?
AAOI up today ?
I sold all my shares, as I don't trust management guidance of $500M next year. They've come short every quarter on guidance. Amazingly investors seem to believe them- too much for me
Schwab - I just noticed one good thing regarding the transfer over from Ameritrade to Schwab, and that is the mandatory corporate actions/reorganization events fee will be going bye-bye. Unfortunately it looks like the $4.95 commission for otc trades will be going up to $6.95.
https://welcome.schwab.com/pricing?aff=XWV
https://www.schwab.com/pricing
CRNT report was fine; I expected some dilution and added expenses from their last acquisition. They actually did a little better then I expected with GMs coming in stronger. Its the non-GAAP vs GAAP problem; on a non-GAAP basis their adjusted pretax margins increased y/y. Anybody simply using GAAP would probably be a seller.
I still think they can earn roughly 0.28 on a non-GAAP eps basis, and that assumes a proforma tax rate of 20%. I'm holding, thinking the sp will hit the 3.30s later this year.
The report you and I should be talking about is USAP....love that sector and its last report! CRS has hit my FV and I sold it. Too soon! USAP is much cheaper right now vs CRS, and that USAP CC was super bullish.
SRTS - I don't think so, nelson. The stock may indeed go up, but I'm more concerned there is something shady going on here and you could wake up one day to a halted stock that never trades again.
I understand about the concerns about non-GAAP earnings. That's why I usually pair it with EV / EBITDA. If EBITDA isn't growing, and its ratio to EV is high then I stay away. So many higher growth companies/tech companies use options and have intangible amortization that can make earnings look low, but on a pure cash flow basis they are cheaper than they look on a GAAP earnings basis and thus attractive to potential acquirers. Value "traps" can look cheap on a PE basis but they might have higher EV/EBITDA ratios because of debt or sneaky converts and NCIs. If adjusted EBITDA and pretax margin isn't growing y/y, that's a red flag.
Speaking of sneaky converts, I reread the FVRR 20F, and they can't force the convert holders to take shares as payment in 2025. In fact, they have to pay them in cash (which is a good deal for the convert holders.) So the Ev / EBITDA ratio is a lot higher than I first calculated, probably closer to 12x. They do have plenty of cash available to pay it off, but it will cut their cash balances by more than half if they don't refinance some of it. I've lowered my price target on FVRR
SRTS - Sensus Healthcare price target raised by $3 at Maxim, here's why
TheFlyontheWall.com - May 10 08:23 EDT
Maxim raised the firm's price target on Sensus Healthcare to $10 from $7 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q1 results were significantly above estimates, with large customer driving its sales growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Sensus also had $14.7M in cash and no debt, and based on Maxim's assumptions, the company may only need additional capital for acquisitions, the firm added.
GENC another great quarter. Fiscal Q2 is their seasonally strongest. Already bidding higher premarket. Looks like $20 soon.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gencor-releases-second-quarter-fiscal-110000094.html
Druckenmiller on copper:
"Stanley Druckemiller thinks copper is a pretty simple story.
I obviously agree with him.
Here's the full quote:
"Copper is a pretty simple story. Takes about 12 years, greenfield to produce copper, and you got EVs, the grid, data centers, and believe it or not munitions.
These missiles all got enough copper in them and the world’s getting hot that we just think the supply-demand situation is incredible for the next five or six years.""
HHS I agree in that I thought the quarter, after restructure was about where I thought they'd hit, and if you wanna ex out stock based comp, than I guess better. The negative .06/share earnings estimate was out there. And I would guess next quarter will be similar, maybe a bit better. Of course the remaining qtrs of '24 will be littered with restructure expenses as expected. And you have the one time pension sale hit coming up... but I actually like that move.
So for me, its really a bet on management and their ability to turn things around.. how much an investor believes in them. Will they actually hit the restructuring benefits as much as they say.. its a huge number. And than while these efforts will lead to reduced costs, are there also increased expenses (non-one time restructure) that will reduce the effects of the restructure? Good news is the estimated savings are so huge, even if it nets at 2/3 of their estimates it would be a big positive.
Anyway, in the call they seem super optimistic about their efforts to both drive up sales while reducing expenses .. in theory the first small wave of those benefits hit in q3, followed by bigger waves. I guess one has to determine what percent of their optimism and guide is real and what percent (if any) is puffery.
I own a small position, maybe one percent. I mean for me thats not teeny since I own around 80.
btw, what did you think of CRNT's report? It was basically where I expected.
SRTS I mean I sure wish I didn't sell out wherever I did, but I find it hard to buy in the fives. And thanks for your commentary and earnings and the CC, gives me a better feel for them. Would you be a buyer in the low fives, or even the high fours?
SRTS - Yeah, that's right, Gil. Now I do remember that name from the past. Here they even boast of being such a large customer of Sensus:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/skincure-oncology-provides-access-to-non-surgical-treatment-option-for-one-in-four-americans-diagnosed-with-common-skin-cancers-in-2022-301498288.html
SRTS large customer is SkinCure
I’m sure that’s where sales are coming from. No current position, and wouldn’t own it except for a trade, and not many shares in that case.
There’s something off here.
Thanks for the BMBL info! I didn't even catch the unusually low G&A expense in Q1. Duh. With their lousy balance sheet and earnings aided by 1-timers, stock seems plenty fairly valued.
Will take a look at FVRR. But I normally stay away from companies that have such a wide spread between GAAP & non-GAAP earnings.
SRTS - This one is still very confusing to me. I still own a couple hundred shares, just to keep an eye on it. Although it's nice to see the big quarter, it only reinforces how dependent they are on one customer. It was the year-ago quarter where sales went from 10m to 3m in one quarter, with no explanation whatsoever. I think all of us on this board who looked at it concluded that something happened with their largest customer (may or may not have been related to Silicon Valley Bank collapse). One customer was about 70-80% of sales in 2022.
Well, that large customer is back and in this Q sales went from 3m to 10m. So sort of back to where we started. Not only did the press release say, "The increase was primarily driven by a higher number of SRT systems sold to a large customer," but I also listened to replay of the conf call and analyst asked something like, "in the past you've had a large customer that has accounted for more than 50% of revenue, were more than 50% of these new sales to that large customer?" And CEO proudly said "yes, they're a very good customer." So I'd guess we're back to one customer at 70-80% of revenue. Still no explanation as to why the customer completely disappeared back then, or has reappeared now (other than "inflation" which sounded totally bogus to me).
All the talk of many other things such as, international sales, veterinary sales, oncology sales, transdermal skin thing, building new laser products, new "fair deal agreement" on new sales, etc -- all that seems superfluous. It's largely a one customer company, and for whatever reason that customer is back. I don't believe they've ever stated who the customer is. That could certainly be understandable for competitive purposes, but one friendly customer would also make for easier financial shenanigans. I'm not claiming that's what is happening, but I would think if one company is able to set up many of these machines in a profitable manner, it seems like someone else in another part of the country would have replicated that model. We won't know the exact customer concentration until the Q comes out, but it does strike me as odd that they're still largely a one customer company.
In the call, CEO seemed back to the old optimism, suggesting that the first quarter tends to set the tone for the year. Thinks Q2 can be as good as Q1, Q3 tends to be a lull, and Q4 is usually best quarter. It's like the 70% plummet in sales in one quarter never happened! Seems like that customer disappeared for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of last year. Then came back in Q4 and now Q1 of this year as well. Let the good times roll again! (Until they collapse again?)
Continue to like IMXI at 21-22. Trades at 10x FY24 eps, with LT growth closer to 12-13%. Last quarter's eps growth was really helped by a large stock repurchase executed by the company that will continue to provide some tailwinds to eps growth in the upcoming quarters.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intermex-reports-first-quarter-results-120000877.html
I had some BMBL coming in to this report and sold it on the pop up near 12. Some of that 0.19 came from a change in FV gain (approx 16MM in the Q, plus they didn't have any stock comp charges, so the GAAP numbers looked much better than usual.). Also, beware of the lurking non-consolidated interest which can convert into 42mm ordinary shares that aren't in the GAAP diluted share count. It was a decent quarter as their sales growth appears to be returning.
If you like BMBL, what about FVRR? They look cheaper to me, also hated and in the midst of a turnaround as they transition their revenues into more profitable "complex" services that involve use of AI. Reported this morning and beat estimates handily because of rising pretax margins. They are judged using non-GAAP. Like BMBL, they give out way too many stock options and so share count keeps rising....but they did authorize a $100MM share repurchase, their first share repurchase program ever.
HHS. I thought it was an ok quarter. Definitely signs of an inflexion happening. Smallest y/y decline in revenue in the past 5 quarters; now finally profitable, and they comfortably beat the one estimate I saw out there for a loss of 0.06 in the quarter. I had them earning 0.14/sh adjusted, and taxed at 20%. The stock is dirt cheap....its Ev/EBITDA ratio is 2.2x. Cost savings of 6MM coming in the remainder of the year, plus some signals on the call of revenue growth resuming in Q3 or Q4. If they can do this, they should earn well north of 1.00/sh. I hope it does sell off a bit.
GEN
Reported after the Bell Came right in the middle of guidance from last quarter with .53. up from .46 last year this time. Which is solid growth.
They are guiding q1 for $0.52-0.54 which is solid growth over adjusted eps of .47 in q1 of the previous period.
They earned $1.96 for the year, which is up 8% for the fy. But What I like is Guidance is supportive of faster Growth in the current FY (25) with guidance of $2.17-2.23, which represent faster growth than this year, and in line with the plan of consistent 12-15% long-term adjusted eps growth.
GEN a leading player on consumer cyber security is trading at just 9x the current FY, Which seems absurdly cheap, I think it should get a 15 multiple. which would put the stock in the low 30's. They also Added a few more customers this quarter as they are now adding customers again, and arpu was up sequentially despite fx headwinds which was a plus. I also like that Non gaap operating margins and retention rates continue to make progress towards the goals of 60 and 80% respectively.
Other factors, debt is starting to drop, as they continue to pay it down quarter after quarter, and they also continue to buyback shares. I think both of these are also positive things for GEN. Gen is one of my favorite stocks right now. A consistent 12-15% adjusted EPS grower in cyber security trading at 9x current adjusted eps guidance, with a broader market that has like a 20 PE seems to cheap to me. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
VTRS
Reported this morning. I thought the quarter was fine. The market didn't necessarily agree. Obviously the lowering of guidance slightly was due to a divesture. I still expect around $2.75 for the year and some improvement next year, and even better improvement the year after, I truely believe this is the trough year for adjusted EPS overall. The company continue to show slight growth y/y on revs minus divestures. Since I believe we finally are getting to the end of the divesture phase now, and the acquisitions, plus new products will start to support top line revenue growth y/y that you actually see once the divestures are behind us from a comp perspective. In the meantime getting paid almost 4.3% to wait, and a PE of 4 times what I believe is trough earnings, you could do alot worse in my opinion. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 5/9/24)
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SRTS...So do I. lol
SRTS I own a big zero shares.
SRTS...Nice. Up a good clip AH's. Hope you hold a good amount. Been a while since I owned it.
SRTS in with an unexpectedly BIG quarter
GEOS I don't know how low it goes but I also will be looking to re-enter.
GEOS 12.61 (ask in afterhours) - lays a big egg...24M REV / (.32) EPS. Any guesses on how low it goes? I'll be looking for sub-$10 and only with a lucrative callwrite oppurtunity?
https://capedge.com/news/benzinga/38746140/geospace-technologies?fromCompany=1001115
Good instincts on HHS. Even without the restructuring charge, Q1 was pretty dang anemic. And sounds like things won't improve much til late Q3 (if then)...so could be dead money for awhile.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/harte-hanks-reports-first-quarter-200500365.html
R59- AAOI
I know. Every time I go against by not holding into earnings mantra, I lose ! That's 20% on IART and now 20% on AAOI- in one week !
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