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SSKMP Trades
Buy 100 Shares of IART
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
SMCI -217 to 711, the sudden collapse in this stock has been epic. Would have made a nice short this morning at the open at $871. I'll be interested in buying shares next week if it keeps dropping since the valuation is getting more reasonable. Seems like momentum alone could take it lower.
Tempted to join you on IART below $28. Seems like LOTS of bad news is getting priced in here...
Very true on SMCI! All about that AI bubble. Stock traded over $890 this morning on the same PR. So low $700's looks good for a bounce. Def not buying heavy though.
Good luck on SMCI; some would say the year-to-date tripling of the stock is a little overdone
:)
Bought a tiny amount of SMCI for fun. Today's 21% plunge seems a little overdone imo
I also own several dogs .... NYCB, CNXC, RMAX, GTEC, PERI and INMD ..... plenty of stocks have been getting beat up. But I have some nice winners as well and my short positions have done well lately. I wish I had more and larger short positions !
SOXS +3.74 to 45.01, a 50%+ gain in the past 2 1/2 weeks ..... do you hold any shares ?
SSKILLZ1, you are much better off than me: my SMCI lost nearly 20% today, double the amount IART lost. Similarly I bought back some at $751.5. In the past 4 quarters, SMCI upgraded the earning guidance for two quarters, but in the fiscal 3th quarter 2023, it downgraded the earning guidance, and in the 1th 2024, it did nothing on its earning guidance. This quarter they did nothing on its earning guidance, and I believe SMCI's earning result will be similar to its original guidance.
IART
Geez brought more 10-15 Minutes ago and it is down another almost .60. I have to say that is a quick adverse response to buying more. Yikes. I guess the good news is the bottom is $0 At least that is what they tell me anyways. Shaking my head. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
IART
Brought more today at $28.98
Obviously can't tell you the delay is a positive I would tend to say based on experiance it is probably a negative, athough I also have to believe at this overshoot even negatives are getting overly priced in in my opinion. And I can see why people are selling at this point (For none other than a huge technical breakdown as well as the fear of bad news, plus negative sentiment and momentum coming in). The things in my head, cut in guidance and more problems with Boston, both of which are not good. I mean if I want to be an optimist (For a second) maybe the company want to talk about there recent acquisition, and needed more time, or wants to announce boston is up and running, and two weeks later is when it actually will be. Although if that is the case and I'm not saying it is, they did themselves no favors by delaying it for two weeks, didn't think the stock would have a 2 in the first digit when I brought it, but this delay with the pervasive negative sentiment out there. I still believe the thesis of $3.60+ in fy 25 with a 15+ Multiple, but admittingly can't say I was jumping up and down to say the least when I seen the delay. I added more, but I have been wrong so far. Time will tell. Have to see the report. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
RELL - recovering somewhat today. Speaking of Joseph Nerges, he made a special guest appearance on the RELL earnings call the other day.
IART -2.47 to 29.16 after rescheduling its Q1 earnings release from 4/25 to 5/6. Traders evidently consider the delay a bad omen. Any thoughts ?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/integra-lifesciences-reschedule-first-quarter-212400610.html
SMCI -135 to 793 after failing to pre-announce earnings as they usually do with their conf call press release. Might be an ominous sign. That's what traders seem to think. They'll be reporting on 4/30.
SMCI is way down from its early March peak of $1,229.
According to this chart and what homebuilders are reporting, there's an overall housing shortage, not an oversupply. It's overly simplistic to draw conclusions from housing units relative to population. Factors such as shrinking household size, more second homes, outdated homes that need to be demolished, etc, also need consideration. Here's an interesting analysis -
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/is-there-a-housing-shortage-or-not
https://www.axios.com/2023/12/16/housing-market-why-homes-expensive-chart-inventory
I somewhat agree ..... if and when mortgage rates finally drop significantly there'll be a surge in existing home sales and the market share for homebuilders will shrink. But who knows when mortgage rates will drop ? They might be stuck at over 5% for years to come.
DHI, the nation's largest homebuilder, reported strong results yesterday, EPS up 24% y/y, revenues and orders up 14%. So for at least the short term, business looks to be excellent.
The homebuilder stocks are generally down YTD, but are starting to look rather cheap.
briefing -
D.R. Horton beats by $0.45, beats on revs; raises FY24 guidance (145.74 ) :
Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $3.52 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.45 better than the FactSet Consensus of $3.07; revenues rose 14.2% year/year to $9.11 bln vs the $8.15 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues raised guidance for FY24, sees FY24 revs of $36.7-37.7 bln from $36-37 bln vs. $36.71 bln FactSet Consensus.
Homes closed in the quarter increased 15% to 22,548 homes compared to 19,664 homes closed in the same quarter of fiscal 2023. Homebuilding revenue for the first six months of fiscal 2024 increased 11% to $15.8 billion compared to $14.2 billion in the same period of fiscal 2023. Homes closed in the first six months of fiscal 2024 increased 13% to 41,888 homes compared to 37,004 homes closed in the same period of fiscal 2023.
The Company's rental operations generated $33.3 million of pre-tax income on revenues of $371.3 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2024 compared to $34.6 million of pre-tax income on revenues of $224.1 million in the same quarter of fiscal 2023. For the six months ended March 31, 2024, rental operations pre-tax income was $64.6 million on revenues of $566.5 million compared to pre-tax income of $144.9 million on revenues of $551.6 million in the prior year period.
My counterintuitive sense is a return of low rates would decimate home builders.
We likely have been overbuilding to compensate for a lack of inventory. It makes sense that if really high relative rates resulted in a boom for builders a rate unwind would have the opposite effect as inventory hits the market.
It appears to me housing units relative to population is rather high historically.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1kqXD
Higher mortgage rate are also benefitting the homebuilders because people don't want to sell their existing homes and give up their low rate mortgages. So the dearth of existing home sales has led to a doubling of market share by the homebuilders. It's quite amazing how much market share they've picked up because of high mortgage rates. I expect another solid year for the homebuilders. The market supply of homes is very low and prices are high. It remains a sellers market which is good news for the homebuilders
XHB
R59- FOR
My feeling is, mortgage rates are going up. Inflation is stubborn again, as Powell suggested this week that the goal of getting to 2% is far away. I think the rally in home builders has seen it's day, and the almost 10% drop in FOR, despite strong earnings, suggests future demand will wane with rates staying as high, or going higher.
Oil price surging on Trump jury selections...
ZNN on top of the news...
take this article link with grain
of salt like media is doing...
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-797866
so we watch...LJ
Thanks just saw the futures and was wondering why they were down big.
S&P futures drop 60 points on reports that Israel is retaliating against Iran.
TSLA -5 to 150, I've been trading it on the short side and writing naked calls on it since January. It's been nicely profitable overall. I think the stock is heading back to $100 if not lower in the coming year, but there'll be some rallies along the way.
r59: TSLA
I guess U would call it dead money for investors. For traders, there should be lots of opportunities for swing trades.
After today's performance, it would not surprise me to see the price of the stock below $100 a share.
Sounds like Elon has crossed the Rubicon with his robotaxi obsession.
The public has to accept driverless taxis.
Is Uber chomping at the bit to convert to self-driving vehicles?
Lots of variables and lots of obstacles. Hence, my thought that this is a stock for investors to avoid. JMO.
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/18/24)
Daily Performance
+0.41%
YTD Performance
+0.30%
Overall Performance
+473.52% (Including Options Trading +337.50%)
CSPI...Where's Joe when you need him? (haha). Anyway, I sold some off on the huge spike and still have a decent position. Not adding yet, but if it keeps dropping, I might. Planning on holding CSPI into next year unless something takes a drastic turn for the worse before than.
I'm sure they have a lot of interest in AZT right now so we'll see what happens.
CXDO...I have plenty of CXDO but decided to add more today near the close of $4.12. These guys are adding end users [ @beigledog months to gain those users). Crexendo is also very close to their next acquisition (IMO). Should easily be @ 5M end users by the time they report their Q2 results in August.
Q3 results will be out in 3-4 weeks.
A look at Crexendo's strong growth...
April 2024...4.5M users
Dec 2023...4M end users
Sept 2023...3.5M end users
Feb 2023...3M end users
May 2022...2.5M end users
Sept 2021...2M end users
CSPI down 12%+ today on that fluffy PR. And down over 50% since that high less than 2 months ago. Anyone buying this pullback? Probably due for a bounce soon. But the stock ain't cheap with negative operating income the last couple quarters. Hopefully fiscal Q2 numbers next month show a big improvement with the first AZT revenues.
Noticed a negative article on SA last weekend. Seems a bit sloppy but probably not helping-
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4683701-csp-rally-seems-overdone
MNDO back in buying range in the mid $1.80's imo. Nibbled on a few. Probably no rush as it's a long wait for the next annual dividend, but the double digit yield sure beats a CD.
MITQ popping 20% today. No news that I can find. Happy to sell some of this dog.
FOR -2.70 to 31.46, despite a solid earnings report, posting adj EPS of $0.89 for Mar Q2, beating estimates. I added to my small position this morning. Forestar Group is a leading a residential lot development company, selling lots to homebuilders. Book value is $29. They maintained their revenue guidance for the year, but based on H1 results I think they'll easily exceed guidance. The next 2 quarters are seasonally strong.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forestar-reports-fiscal-2024-second-103000428.html
ADFJF +.53 to 10.05, I think it can hit $12+ in the coming months and $15+ by year end if the earnings and backlog keep growing. My sales and trades will depend partly on the trading action.
re AYSI: I sent an email to that site on Monday(4/15), and haven't heard anything back yet...
The site is well laid-out and informative. I'm expecting to hear about the 4/4 meeting soon...
R59- ADFJF-
What is your sell target ? thanks
Congrats on still having all your ADFJF. Don't know how you can resist selling a few over $10, but it's still not expensive. I thought it might bounce around more, so took some profits way too soon. Thinking I could buy back later. Didn't know it would just keep zooming higher! Dang oh well. Been trimming stuff across the board just in case this April market selloff gets nastier.
ADFJF +.70 to 10.22, was a fabulous find by Gilead .... I'm averaged in at around $6.50 and have not sold a single share yet. It still looks undervalued. I just wish I had a larger position ... unfortunately it's <1%.
Next week is peak week for earnings. 166 S&P500 companies report including 5 of the magnificent 7. It will be highly interesting.
Good luck on DBGI. I still say why mess with such an obvious dilution machine when there's thousands of legit stocks out there. But to each their own. Bouncing a little today at least. Maybe you'll get a pump & dump higher before the inevitable slide to new lows. They seem optimistic about the Q1 report next month. But I wouldn't trust this scammy company.
Another troubling day for the broader markets. Up sharply early. Then selling off later in the day. Maybe there's a deeper correction looming? Big techs better deliver outstanding Q1 results...and they probably will. I don't think the AI bubble is ready to pop yet.
ADFJF continues to climb. New highs over $10! Again what an awesome call you had on this one around $5. Kicking myself I didn't buy more when it opened in the $7's a week ago after the excellent earnings report.
Thanks for that link .... very interesting short sales data.
RELL - The company may not be buying back stock, but at least a couple directors are buying:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/355948/000120919124005334/xslF345X05/doc4.xml
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/355948/000120919124005332/xslF345X05/doc4.xml
DBGI...Thanks, It went from 10k to 40k...https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-dbgi/borrow-fee/
DBGI - IB currently has 41k shares available for shorting at a borrow rate of 96%.
TSSI - Nice upward move for sure. I've been letting some go. Nothing new to my knowledge. The earnings cc at the end of last month was pretty positive from what I recall.
TSSI($.78) on fire over the past week; hearing anything?
TSLA -4 to 151 after Rosner, a former Tesla bull, issues a downgrade -
TSLA is down around 40% YTD, the worst performing stock in the S&P500. It still looks overpriced at 57x FY24 EPS estimates, imho.
fly -
Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner downgraded Tesla to Hold from Buy with a price target of $123, down from $189. The analyst cites the "high likelihood" of Model 2 push-out and the company's change of strategic priority to Robotaxi for the downgrade. Deutsche's Buy rating was predicated on Tesla's next-generation vehicle priced at $25,000 coming late next year, which would allow the company to reaccelerate volume, margins and free cash flow, and potentially come to dominate the Western electric vehicle market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, pushing out the Model 2 will create "significant" earnings and free cash flow pressure on 2026 and beyond estimates, and make the future of the company tied to Tesla "cracking the code on full driverless autonomy," which represents a "significant technological, regulatory and operational challenge," says Deutsche Bank. The firm views Tesla's shift to Robotaxi as "thesis-changing," and worries the stock will need to undergo a "potentially painful transition in ownership base," with investors previously focused on electric vehicle volumes and cost advantages potentially "throwing in the towel, and eventually replaced by AI/tech investors with considerably longer time horizon."
DBGI...Added yesterday at $3 and will add more today if it goes lower. Only 10k shares left to short based on chartxchange.com so hopefully it's near bottom.
96% borowing rate.
Crooked SPCB raised money for the upteenth time
'SuperCom stock falls after company prices its $2.9 million offering
Apr. 18, 2024 8:45 AM ETSuperCom Ltd. (SPCB) StockBy: Sinchita Mitra, SA News Editor
SuperCom (NASDAQ:SPCB) shares slid 16.7% in pre-market trade after it priced its $2.9 million registered direct offering.
The combined effective purchase price for one ordinary share and a warrant to purchase one ordinary share will be $0.36.
The warrants will be immediately exercisable upon issuance, will expire five years from the date of issuance, and will have an exercise price of $0.38 per ordinary share, the firm said.'
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