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CNC
I thought the CNC quarter today was real solid despite the negative reaction. Now the EPS floor is up to $6.80, my gut is this number will be north of $7.00 when we are done with more growth happening in FY 25. Time will tell. But liked the CNC quarter here. Just thought I would mention what I thought about the CNC Quarter. End result is I still like it here and think it is undervalued. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
E*Trade has what I'm looking for .... the data on investing.com is available at many brokers and websites. I was looking for historic changes in estimates, not the final estimate and actual EPS. Often estimates trend lower as the reporting date approaches.
Thank you E*Trade !
I have several brokerage accounts .... most are inactive with just a few dollars in SGOV to keep the account open. That way I have access to any research or other data they may uniquely offer.
Fidelity and Merrill don't have the historic analyst estimates data that Ameritrade has, but thankfully Etrade (now Morgan Stanley) has the same data as Ameritrade ! So I can use Etrade for that info.
Maybe it's available for free at Zacks or another website, but I'm not currently aware of any.
researcher this probably isn't exactly what you're looking for but investing.com has some of that historic information. You can go back a number of years but it isn't in chart format.
https://www.investing.com/equities/ibm-earnings
For IBM you can go back to 2013 if you keep clicking the show more link below the the table.
True, it only shows positive and negative restatement under historical earnings "show more"
I'll miss that feature at Ameritrade ..... I'm checking out where else I might find it for free on the web. Frankly I'm shocked that Schwab doesn't provide any historic analyst estimates .... it's interesting and useful to see how their estimates are trending.
Researcher59, I don't believe there is. I have always used the site that starts with Y for that info. Obviously doesn't have the detail that ameritrade has, than again I never knew that kind of detail was available anywhere. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
To Schwab account holders - I'm migrating over in two weeks -
One very nice feature at Ameritrade is to be able to check the historic trends in earnings estimates for a particular quarter or year. On yahoo one can go back 7, 30, 60 and 90 days. On Ameritrade one can go back 4 years on a weekly basis .... so loads of detail.
I'm not finding any historic EPS estimate data on Schwab, just the current estimate. Seems rather lame, or am I not looking in the right place ?
ULH is a long term holding for me ..... all my shares are at least a year old with a few three years. "Hold and Mold" in the Bobwins tradition has worked out well in this particular stock. I did trim about 20% of my shares ahead of the report because other truckers were reporting disappointing numbers. Didn't think the logistics business would be that hot. If it's just partly sustainable the stock is still cheap compared to other truckers.
CBBI
The deposits decline was out of whack. Deposits have been around flat to slightly up sequentially for most regional banks. These Guys the deposits declined 6.4% sequentially not annually. Sequentially. I haven't seen too many banks that have had deposits drop 6.4% sequentially that is an insane drop in my opinion. I get the acquisition target thing, but that is not a reason to invest in it. Wouldn't be surprised if earnings are in the .30's in a couple of quarters. Before this quarter I thought they would do about $2.50 over the next 4 quarters, now I think in a couple of quarters they will be annualizing at $1.50 at best. But more important than anything that put me in a state of panic when I seen the numbers this morning was the drop in deposits that was outrageous for a sequential drop in my opinion.
CBBI thx for that analysis.
CBBI -.21 to 9.54, yeah those significant declines in various metrics is quite concerning, but book value of $22.49 is rising and might make the bank an attractive acquisition target.
CBBI
Sold my small position in CBBI this morning.
The report wasn't underwhelming. It stunk. Let me tell you why. Deposits are in free fall that is a huge concern for me. Earnings of .54 happened with a big gain on sale of loans in non interest income (Which probably won't happen in q2 to that extent, hence I think that will drop earnings by about .05 or so next quarter). I feel nims will continue to decline. Interest earning asset have been in decline. Loans are in decline. Now they are talking about expaning to the east, what I here even if they are correct, is some startup expenses at first before we see revs. Hence possible higher expenses in the short run. very cheap to tangible book value, but if you think earnings are going to drop from here now possibly by a decent amount over the coming quarters, and your concerned about the huge drop in deposits, drop in loans, drop in interest earnings assets. This doesn't excite me, I've seen plenty of bank reports that excite me more than this. So I decided to take my tiny loss and move on. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
Sweet alert on TPC last week! Congrats on the gain.
PPIH also getting a nice earnings pop over $8. Was tempted to grab some when it opened at $7.30. Should have dang.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/perma-pipe-international-holdings-inc-132600593.html
ULH congrats on that purchase!
PERI
I sold PERI today around $11.80. As I said in my buy post I brought for a trade. I do believe there is a longer-term case for the stock to go higher, but you never turn a trade into investment in my opinion. So I felt momentum slowing hence I sold it. I may reenter at lower prices again for another trade. All is just my opinion, and I oculd always be wrong though.
CUBI CBBI hey SSK, any thoughts on these two bank earnings reports? I have a small position in CUBI, the report looked ok but not great to me. Wondering if there is an area you might buy since its already down a bunch. And on CBBI, earnings were underwhelming.. flip side is its trading wayyyyyyy below tang book.
TPC great call and alert by Nelson. Congrats!
Ditto to KIK on GL.
TPC just sold half at $16.87 up $2.95. I did mention here less than two weeks ago that TPC preannounced very strong earnings and very strong sales (vs the analyst estimate of a decent sized loss and sales 20% below what the were preannouncing) but it was buried at the bottom of a refi 8-k and never pr'd. Earnings turned out less than that estimate but still a strong profit vs the expected loss ... I guess the analyst never saw the 8K. Hope some of you grabbed some ... I started buying at $14, but it kept on going lower... down to the low $13's ... 6% lower than before they gave the new estimate for the qtr.
best.
ULH +14.11 to 47.00 after the blowout earnings ..... I had some bids in to add shares in the mid to high $30's, but the stock opened at $40.55, so none got filled .....
TPC $16.87 + $2.98. Nice one, Nelson. I bought some shares right before the market close yesterday and flipped them after the earnings report was issued. Looks like I left some cash on the table!
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240425223754/en/Tutor-Perini-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Results
FEIM thx again great to see. Small buy but for a guy that already has millions invested.
I generally feel good about the upcoming quarter, and think they will have margin tailwinds rather than headwinds.
You seem to be referring to actual reported earnings .... I'm referring to analyst EPS estimates. Schwab provides only the current estimate and not historical estimates. For example, for AAOI, Schwab shows the Q1 expected EPS as (0.29). I'd like to know what that estimate was 3 and 6 months ago. I'd like to know how the estimate has been trending.
Unless I'm not looking in the right place, Schwab shows NO historic estimates.
Ameritrade has earnings estimate trends going back 4 years on a weekly basis depicted in chart form.
Schwab only goes back to 21 quarterly or annual
SSK - Schwab earnings estimates trend ..... in 2 weeks my Ameritrade account is moving to Schwab. I'm checking out the website now. It seems to me that Ameritrade has more stock research features.
One very nice feature at Ameritrade is to be able to check the historic trends in earnings estimates for a particular quarter or year. On yahoo one can go back 7, 30, 60 and 90 days. On Ameritrade one can go back 4 years on a weekly basis .... so loads of detail.
I'm not finding any historic EPS estimate data on Schwab, just the current estimate. Or am I not looking in the right place ?
What happens in after hours had a
reversal yesterday...
so we watch...LJ
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/25/24)
Daily Performance
-0.77%
YTD Performance
+0.66%
Overall Performance
+475.08% (Including Options Trading +339.06%)
GOOG + 13% after hour. Its cloud revenue grows faster than MSFT
Arbitrage is the strategy I use to reduce cost from time to time. But many times it backfired for me.
ULH (32.89) posts very strong Q1 earnings. EPS of $1.99 was up 91% y/y and crushed estimates for $0.73. Other trucking companies like JBHT and KNX have been missing estimates, but ULH's logistics business is on fire and more than offset weak results in their other trucking segments.
PR -
In the contract logistics segment, which includes our value-added and dedicated services, first quarter 2024 operating revenues increased 48.4% to $313.5 million, compared to $211.3 million for the same period last year. At the end of the first quarter 2024, we managed 71 value-added programs, including a recent contract logistics award that ramped-up in the first quarter and is expected to be complete by the end of 2024. This compares to 65 programs at the end of the first quarter 2023.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/universal-logistics-holdings-reports-first-203000760.html
SSKMP Trades
Sell 250 Shares of BMY
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
IART
I mean obviously the market thinks it is gonna be bad. Even I'm starting to get suprised that it is dropping this much, I thought it would hang out in the low to mid 30's when i brought it, obviously I was wrong. Obviously I think so much bad news is priced in, I would not want to see what they would have to report in terms of the numbers, guidance, Boston, etc. to drive the stock lower at this point. It has been an unmitgated disaster since I purchased this one. Obviously don't think this quarters numbers are the thing that will move the stock. News on boston and the future will. I continue to believe this is a FY 25 Growth story, with getting to growth in 2nd half of fy 24. I could be completely wrong, I have been so far. I think it is gonna take alot of bad news to push it lower at this point, but anything is possible. Having said that I still believe in the IART Story, will I be proven wrong? That is always possible. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
SMCI & NVDA- Just bet on the stock that is lower !
Whenever NVDA is higher than SMCI, bet on SMCI to go up. Whenever NVDA is lower than SMCI, bet on NVDA to go up ! That is the pattern now.
SS- IART
How bad could it be on May 6 ? I mean, what do you think the bottom for the stock would be if the Boston Factory has bad news ie it will take another 3-6 months to get it on line ?
Another small insider buy on FEIM. Same director. A few more shares, and a few days later. Bodes well for fiscal Q4. Maybe not a blowout quarter, but I think the chances of another big miss like they had in Q3 are very minimal.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/39020/000118518524000429/xslF345X05/ownership.xml
GOLD/Copper Developer Ready To Rally; https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/ESM.TO/overview
trades on the OTC as well
AAOI -.38 to 10.47, might be a 2nd half story (of this year) if the Microsoft contract ramps up .... so if AAOI drops to $8 after disappointing Q1 earnings, I'll get interested, but consider it speculative. Now at $10, a lot of pessimism is priced in.
IART($27.40)- I just bought in Wadegarret @ $27.67
I just hope they aren't going bankrupt !
R59- AAOI, good points
I was a bit mixed up, as I thought analysts were raising targets, not lowering.
Wade - AAOI - you're getting years mixed up. Six months ago analysts were estimating EPS of $0.41 for FY24. Their estimates have come DOWN sharply since then, not doubled. For FY24 they are now estimating EPS of (0.09), a loss. FY25 estimates were recently introduced and are $0.87, but that's a long way off and highly uncertain.
Hweb- AAOI
The hope is that MSFT will give AAOI more business than they can handle, as there has been recent news that they expect to keep increasing their data centers. MSFT is AAOIs major customer, and they just gave AAOI a $300M contract. Then again, it was a very disappointing qtr in Q4, and I may decide to sell for now, and make sure things are looking better in guidance for Q2
IART($27.30)- down another 7% ?
I don't get this one. How bad could the news be on May 6 ? The company has been cut by 65% in 3 years, and it's persistent. In the meantime, eps could end up to be at $3+ for fiscal 2024, even without the Boston Factory. This stock is acting like the company may not make it !
AAOI is about to report Q1 results on 5/9. They're on a normal fiscal year. So you're not looking for earnings of .90 for the next 4 quarters? But the 4 quarters after that? Didn't seem to be what you were saying in your post. Hope it works out, but I wouldn't put much faith in a supposed earnings surge in 2025.
INDV (17.45 -1.37) lays an egg for its Q1 report. They missed eps expectations by 0.04, coming at an adj fd eps of 0.37. The year ago quarter was a tough comp in that they had their best margins of the year along with a lower tax rate. They cited several factors for the shortfall: 1) Medicaid disenrollment of approx 20MM patients (70% of their patient population is on Medicaid). This had already been going on prior to this quarter, but it accelerated unexpectedly; 2) A Cyber attack on a payment provider that cost them about 5-7MM from destocking impacts. They reiterated guidance for rev and operating profits for the year, and will be continuing to buy back stock. The guidance assumes that the quarter's numbers were an aberration, and that by Q3 they will have anniversaried the Medicaid disenrollment issue. They also hope to have a primary listing on the US by this summer, so no more 6K filings.
I took down my expectations for the year, but still think there is some decent upside here. It may languish in the 17s or even the 16s for a while, but I still think it could be hitting 52 week highs by year end IF they can get back on track in the 2H. My best guess for FD eps is 1.82 - 1.96, which is a healthy rise over last year's 1.57. FV is still likely in the high 20s, IMO so I'm not selling here.
How do you figure AAOI is going to earn .90 over the next year? Analysts are expecting a loss of (.09) for 2024. And then earnings of .87 for 2025. So I guess you're talking about 2025?
BMY
Sold BMY Today around $47.70 premarket. Just came away completely unimpressed. Could of just been me, but I think the stock is flat to slightly negative money in the coming months. Hence I decided to sell as there were plenty of more impressive reports I've seen the last couple of days out there than this. So I decided to take a small loss and move on. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
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