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SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/30/24)
Daily Performance
-0.27%
YTD Performance
+0.91%
Overall Performance
+476.18% (Including Options Trading +340.16%)
SMCI after hours range is now 797 to 947 .... with the stock currently at 858. Crazy action over just a few minutes! Who knows where it settles ???
Nice AH pop on SMCI. Or at least it was. Now down 6% after being up over 10%. This one sure is volatile!
SMCI +77 to 935 after hours after a solid earnings beat and strong guidance .....
SSKMP Trades
Buy 700 Shares of FISI
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
INMD -.09 to 17.14, looks oversold. I just added a few shares and sold the June $17.5 Calls for $1.25, so my cost basis on this purchase is around $15.90. Seems like a bargain. Earnings are due out Thursday morning.
SMCI -35 to 855 ahead of the earnings after the bell. Option premiums imply a mean expected move of $121 up or down on the news .... should be interesting.
DEA Agrees To Reschedule Marijuana Under Federal Law In Historic Move Following Biden-Directed Health Agency’s RecommendationPublished on April 30, 2024By Kyle Jaeger
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/dea-agrees-to-reschedule-marijuana-under-federal-law-in-historic-move-following-biden-directed-health-agencys-recommendation/
AYSI - For all those wondering, it appears as though the settlement was approved. This is from the fund that pursued the legal action:
https://www.barelkarsan.com/2024/04/alloy-steel-court-settlement.html
Looks like weed stocks breaking out on fed rescheduling proposal.
Just a heads up.
FISI
Brought Some FISI today in the low 17's. here is what I like.
Dividend Yield: FISI pays you while you wait. In fact it yields right around 7% where I brought it, and I believe the divy is very safe.
Valuation: FISI Earned .11 on the face, begs the question why are you buying it. I see fraud events are rare and generally can happen to any bank, sometimes there is no good defense to it either. Hence I see the almost 19.1 Million that needs to be exed out. To be fair they also booked a reversal or gain on a provision of roughly 5.5 million so that need to be exed out too. Given that Earning were about .86 this quarter, which means the bank is trading at just 5 times earnings based on q1 annualized.
Loan Growth: Although loan growth was essentially flat sequentially I do expect it to pick up in future quarters.
Asset Quality: Asset quality remains in very decent shape overall, which is another plus.
Book Value: FISI trades at a decent discount to tangible book which is north of $23 right now. Hence another reason why it i attractive.
Other Info: FISI will also book a gain from selling the insurance operation in q2, now I will definetely ex that out. But it should also provide a nice comp for q2, and add to both book value. As a after tax gain of 11 million or so is expected.
Deposit Growth: FISI also had deposits grow nicely which is yet another plus. Showing the bank is healthy in my opinion.
NIMS: After declining quarter after quarter. NIMS Stabilized in q1 versus q4. And given annual guidance of 2.85%-2.95% for the year, in coming quarter that should increase which will be a boost to net interest income and ultimately profitability going foward.
What Do I expect in future quarter on the earnings front? Based on guidance we know NIMS is going higher probably around 2.90% on average the rest of the year easily. We know Non interest income will be about 9 million, and non interest expense will be about 33.5 million. Given actually take a provision of say 2 million a quarter to be conservative, saying a modest rise in interest earning assets over the course of the year. I say we should see earnings average slightly north of $1.00 a quarter from q2 -q4. if you believe like me that those are the number than we are looking at say somewhere between $4.00-4.25 annulized based on the average of the next three quarters. A 10 PE would get us to $40, but even like a 7 pe get us back to around $30. Hence why I feel this is the most attractive bank out there right now.
Conclusion: Why do I like FISI (1) Trades at steep discount to tangible book value. (2) Nims has bottomed and should start increasing sequentially, which should be helpful to net interest income and earnings per share. (3) Deposit growth is here, Loan Growth should pick up, and Asset quality looks solid. (4) The sale of the insurance operation should provide a nice gain in q2, which wlll add to book value, and make a impressive comp in q2, not that I wouldn't ex that out, but it can't hurt the stock price I would assume. (5) Dividend Yield of 7% essentially you get paid while you wait. Always a plus. (6) Cheap based on current earnings of .86 for q1 after making the adjustments. (7) Even cheaper if you think the guidance from the company is gonna occurs I could easily see $1.00+ on average for the next 3 quarters. of course we never know with earnings. I will buy more on weakness. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
Anyone lucky enough to hold MIND into earnings? Stock has jumped from $4 to $6+ this week. Q4 numbers look fantastic. BUT the situation with the Preferreds is a mess. Common shareholders will probably get massively diluted at some point. But the stock is getting a nice pop today! I'll check out the CC transcript later...should be interesting.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mind-technology-inc-reports-fiscal-201500309.html
Yup FONR looks cheap with their earnings & balance sheet. But the stock has been on an ugly slide from the $22 area over the past month...wonder what's up?
ESP I added some .. as low as $20.90, but foolishly stuck an order in to sell the low $23's which hit this morning... I still own some, and in fact just noticed that I had sold more at $24.98. I don't think I want to own any come earnings day, I guess mid-month.
BTW, what do you think of FONR here in the mid/high $15's. I bought some, but imo it becomes a real strong risk-reward at $15 or lower. There, so long as they make in the mid thirties, there's little to no down side, and if they make .45+ then plenty of upside.
SMCI...hweb, I know, right? Just played the early morning dips averaging down on some rather large trades (knowing earnings were coming), and ended up making good profit when the stock bounced. I guess it could have went the other way though.
ESP rebounding back towards $25 after slipping below $21 recently. Surprised nobody joined me on buying the pullback.
Trimming a few into today's strength. Think it pops higher on what should be a favorable fiscal Q3 comp in a couple weeks. But woulda been happy with $25 after the earnings report. So why risk holding into a potential disappointment...especially with the stock up sharply from the mid teens several months ago.
Trading SMCI the past couple days? But not when it dropped below $700 last week?? That was one heck of a buying opportunity. Always easy in hindsight. Good luck to those holding into earnings!
DTI sold my last shares today
Managed to sell some up around the 6 range the other day. At peak It more than doubled from the 2.90’s and with questions on how integrations with SDPI will effect profitability, and somewhat weaker oil prices I took the bird in the hand.
KIK- Infrastructure stocks
The bill terminates dec 31, 2026. TPC, STRL, PRIM are all up 200%+ over the last 18 months, as revenues, earnings, and backlog, have grown strongly. However I wonder how much more upside these stocks have, as revenues would plummet in 2027 if the bill isn't extended. What do you think ?
SMCI...Nice action continues on SMCI...I have been very successful at using it as a trading vehicle over the past couple days. Haven't decided yet if I'm going to hold into earnings, (thinking about holding onto a small position).
Hope you're making a mint on this one valuemind.👍
re GL: nasty stuff; no position...
CLMB..."As we look ahead to the remainder of 2024, I'm incredibly encouraged by the opportunities that lie ahead, confident in our team's ability to innovate, adapt, and continue delivering exceptional value," said Dale Foster, CEO of Climb Channel Solutions."
Climb Channel Solutions' Commitment to Excellence Recognized with Multiple Prestigious Awards in Q1 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/climb-channel-solutions-commitment-excellence-110000184.html
GL - Another negative report out this morning:
https://viceroyresearch.org/2024/04/30/globe-life-the-main-course/
RITM (11.22) posts strong Q1 results - dividend yield is 8.9% for this mortgage REIT -
PR -
GAAP net income of $261.6 million, or $0.54 per diluted common share
Earnings available for distribution of $233.2 million, or $0.48 per diluted common share
Common dividend of $120.9 million, or $0.25 per common share
Book value per common share of $12.19
TMHC (57.70) out with solid Q1 earnings. New Home orders up a very impressive 29% y/y.
briefing -
Taylor Morrison Home beats by $0.14, beats on revs (57.70 ) :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.75 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.61; revenues rose 2.3% year/year to $1.7 bln vs the $1.66 bln FactSet Consensus.
Q2 closings expected around 3,000.
FY24 closings expected around 12,500 and share repurchases expected to reach $300 mln.
PR -
"In the first quarter, our team delivered a strong start to the year, including better-than-expected sales activity, upside to our gross margin expectations, and efficient construction progress that we believe has set the stage for continued success through the remainder of the year. Supported by our diversified consumer and geographic strategy, we delivered 2,731 homes at a better-than-expected home closings gross margin of 24.0%, driving earnings per diluted share of $1.75 and 14% growth in our book value per share to $50. With consistent activity throughout the quarter, our net sales orders increased 29% year over year, driven by a monthly sales pace of 3.7 per community—putting us firmly on track to meet our annual sales pace goal in the low-three range," said Sheryl Palmer, Taylor Morrison Chairman and CEO.
Value- thanks
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/29/24)
Daily Performance
+0.58%
YTD Performance
+1.18%
Overall Performance
+477.36% (Including Options Trading +341.34%)
Congratulation on GERN!
SBOW...Thanks. My position is small compared to some of my other holdings, so I'll ride it into earnings w/ you and go from there.
GERN +.43 to 4.22, a six year high after Cowen initiates coverage with a $10 price target -
fly -
TD Cowen initiated coverage of Geron with a Buy rating and $10 price target. The firm says imetelstat is disease-modifying with the most durable transfusion independence it has seen in lower risk myelodysplastic syndromes. The drug also works broadly and can address currently underserved patient populations upon potential approval in June, which is as likely based on the 12-2 FDA panel vote, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Further, success in high-risk myelofibrosis could double imetelstat's opportunity, contends TD.
SBOW +.46 to 32.49, my position was trimmed at April options expiration because I wrote a bunch of covered calls at a strike price of $30. But I'm holding all my remaining uncovered shares through earnings. The stock moves up and down with crude oil prices, so that's the big question .... what will oil prices do in the coming months ???
SBOW...Today's news...SilverBow Resources Successfully Executing Strategic Priorities to Drive Shareholder Value
Business Wire
Files Investor Presentation and Sends Letter to Shareholders Highlighting Track Record of Profitable Growth
Board Urges Shareholders to Vote "FOR" ALL of SilverBow’s Highly Qualified Directors on the WHITE Proxy Card
HOUSTON, April 29, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--SilverBow Resources, Inc. (NYSE: SBOW) ("SilverBow" or the "Company") today released an investor presentation and mailed a letter to shareholders in connection with the Company’s 2024 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the "2024 Annual Meeting"). Both will be filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Additional company resources for the 2024 Annual Meeting can be found at www.futureofsilverbow.com.
Highlights include:
SilverBow Has a Strong Track Record of Outperformance: Since 2021, our total shareholder return is 503%, compared to 193% for the XOP E&P Index.1
Management Is Successfully Executing its Proven Strategy: We are generating strong operating results and recently set quarterly records for free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA.2 We expect this momentum to continue; and
The Board Is Acting in Shareholders’ Best Interests: Our Board is composed of independent directors that bring direct industry expertise and public company board and executive leadership experience.
The full text of the letter follows:
Dear Fellow Shareholders,
SilverBow Resources’ Board and management team remain laser-focused on positioning the business to continue driving value for ALL shareholders. Our stock has significantly outperformed the XOP Index over the last several years.
On the other hand, Kimmeridge Energy Management Company, LLC, is running a costly proxy fight to gain control of your Company without paying you a premium for your investment. Kimmeridge has one goal: to force a dilutive, value-destructive combination with Kimmeridge Texas Gas (KTG).
Shareholders should note:
SilverBow Has a Strong Track Record of Outperformance: Since 2021, our total shareholder return is 503%, compared to 193% for the XOP E&P Index. 1
Management Is Successfully Executing its Proven Strategy: We are generating strong operating results and recently set quarterly records for free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA.2 We expect this momentum to continue.
The Board Is Acting in Shareholders’ Best Interests: Our Board is composed of independent directors that bring direct industry expertise and public company board and executive leadership experience.
To protect the value of your investment, using the WHITE proxy card, please vote "FOR" all SilverBow director nominees: Gabriel L. Ellisor, Kathleen McAllister and Charles W. Wampler.
You can learn more about the quality of our Board, positive governance changes and SilverBow’s value creation opportunity at www.futureofsilverbow.com.
Additional information that outlines our strategy can be found in the investor presentation SilverBow recently published at www.futureofsilverbow.com/investor-presentation.
SilverBow’s Proven Strategy Is Delivering Results
Our Board has been overseeing a clear and proven strategy to drive shareholder value by:
Building a scaled and durable portfolio characterized by a deep inventory of drilling opportunities and commodity diversity;
Driving efficiencies and enhancing margins to capture sustainable capital efficiencies and greater margins;
Delivering profitable growth through continued execution of our returns-focused strategy; and
Strengthening the balance sheet and deepening liquidity, with strong free cash flow generation.
The results of this strategy:
Secured decade+ of high-quality drilling inventory with about 1,000 locations across our 220,000 net acres;
Executed a transformative South Texas acquisition in late 2023 that enhanced scale and added important capital allocation flexibility;
Achieved peer-leading cost structure (opex 40%+ lower than peer average and cash G&A 65%+ lower than peer average) and best-in-class margin profile (EBITDA margin 20%+ higher than peer average);
Posted 21% average ROCE (2021-23);
Generated four consecutive years of free cash flow through ongoing capital discipline;
Improved our capital structure through a lower debt, higher liquidity focus; and
Optimized 2024 plan to maximize free cash flow and fund high-return oil and liquids developments.
Our success is being recognized by the market. The Company has outpaced the XOP E&P index since 2021, delivering total shareholder returns of 503% compared to 193% for the XOP E&P Index, as well as outsized returns over one-, three- and five-year periods.1,3
SilverBow’s Highly Qualified Directors Are Also Further Enhancing Our Governance
A strong Board and robust governance practices are critical to sustained value creation. Our legacy existing governance structure was adopted in the aftermath of our 2016 financial restructuring. As our original ownership has changed, our Board is evolving SilverBow’s governance to better align with best practices.
After discussions with our current shareholders, we are proposing significant governance changes at the upcoming 2024 Annual Meeting:
Declassifying the Board and providing for the annual election of all directors;
Adopting a majority voting standard in uncontested elections of directors; and
Eliminating the supermajority vote requirements for shareholders to amend certain provisions of our certificate of incorporation.
We have also continued to strengthen our Board with new skill sets, collective experiences and enhanced diversity.
We have a highly engaged, experienced Board that is working to maximize value. Since 2023, SilverBow has added four highly qualified new independent directors, which we believe gives us the right balance of valuable company knowledge and fresh perspectives in the boardroom. Each director has extensive experience in the energy sector, including Leland T. "Lee" Jourdan, the Board’s most recent addition.
Our three independent directors who are up for election at this year’s Annual Meeting – Gabriel L. Ellisor, Kathleen McAllister and Charles W. Wampler – bring extensive public company board and executive leadership experience. Of note, Kathleen McAllister is a recent addition to the Board, joining in January 2023.
Our Directors Are Independent, Highly Qualified and Not Conflicted
Gabriel L. Ellisor
Significant financial experience developed through 25 years in the finance sector of the oil and gas industry
Extensive M&A experience at Rivington Capital and serving as CFO of two oil and gas acquisition vehicles exited within five years for proceeds of $2.5 billion
Expertise in successfully raising capital at energy companies
Kathleen McAllister
Significant experience overseeing financial and operational functions at large multinational companies
Public company CEO and CFO experience at capital-intensive global companies in the energy value chain
Expertise executing strategic transactions, including leading Transocean Partners’ IPO in 2014
Charles W. Wampler
Significant understanding of E&P company challenges leveraging 40+ years of industry experience
Decades of operational expertise, including working as COO of large multinational energy companies
Track record of overseeing employee safety and minimizing environmental impacts of E&P operations
In contrast to Kimmeridge’s highly conflicted nominees who have a personal interest in supporting Kimmeridge’s dilutive proposal, our directors are focused on delivering value for SilverBow shareholders.
Kimmeridge’s Proxy Fight Is About Forcing a Value-Destructive Combination With Kimmeridge Texas Gas (KTG); Its Highly Conflicted Nominees Are Incentivized to Carry Out Kimmeridge’s Self-Serving Agenda
We have put out extensive information about our two-year engagement with Kimmeridge. This includes reaching a deal on agreed terms, which Kimmeridge ultimately reneged on because they were unable to secure financing. Most recently, Kimmeridge presented a value-destructive proposal to merge KTG with SilverBow which undervalued SilverBow while substantially overvaluing its own KTG assets. The SilverBow Board previously rejected the proposal, determining that it was NOT in the best interests of SilverBow shareholders. SilverBow published our analysis of the proposal in our April 22, 2024 shareholder letter, also available here.
Although Kimmeridge withdrew its proposal, we believe they are pursuing a proxy contest in an attempt to gain control of SilverBow and ultimately force this value-destructive transaction upon our shareholders.
We strongly believe appointing Kimmeridge’s nominees to the Board would jeopardize SilverBow’s proven strategy and business plan and ultimately diminish shareholder value. Kimmeridge’s three nominees – Carrie Fox, Douglas Brooks and Katherine Minyard – are not aligned with all SilverBow shareholders, and we believe the self-interested agenda of Kimmeridge and their nominees risks impeding our progress, ability to pursue non-Kimmeridge related business opportunities and the value we are poised to create for our shareholders.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silverbow-resources-successfully-executing-strategic-120000102.html
SBOW...What do you think researcher? Earnings are Thursday...SBOW looks to be pretty unuervalued base on estimates. so I'm thinking on holding my current position into the report and possibly adding. Would like to get your opinion. (It's inching up a notch as I type).
TDAM to Schwab definitely seems like a downgrade to me. Fortunately E*Trade offers the 4 year analyst EPS estimates changes history that Ameritrade had, but not Schwab. Even Yahoo is better than Schwab with that feature.
Also Ameritrade saves the transaction history going back over 20 years ..... Schwab saves only 4 years ! Cheap.
So before your remaining accounts get transferred over, be sure to download your entire transaction history (to excel) and your account value history.
Supposedly the 10 years of monthly account statements will be transferred over, but I've downloaded all of mine just in case ....
Decided on PRIM vs TPC
Why ? PRIM is steadier, larger market cap, and pays a dividend. Plus, both stocks are up about the same % overall since Oct 2022, with similar backlog increases guided for of 20% for PRIM, 26% for TPC. Hopefully the Infrastructure bill till Dec 2026, will keep boosting these stocks, as the PEs are still very reasonable at 12 & 14 for TPC and PRIM respectively.
GERN hits $4- A milestone !
Still think it goes to $7+, should it get FDA approval June 16.
FTK...Alliance Global Partners initiates coverage on Flotek Industries (NYSE:FTK) with a Buy rating and announces Price Target of $7.
Current price $3.47.
IMMR thx for that info
I'm surprised you haven't looked at IMMR before, in all your years of trading. Or run into the Singers.
IMMR licenses their haptic technology to various companies. And when they don't license it, IMMR takes them to court ha.
IMMR has an awesome balance sheet and the stock is cheap. I still think the stock is worth some kind of scalp into the Q1 report in a couple weeks. As they should recognize the $17.5M they recently won from Meta. Going to give a big 1-time boost to Q1 earnings.
As for the Singers, I watched them run EVOL into the ground. Think they were in charge of SEAC when that one collapsed. Sure there were others. I thought they were doing ok with IMMR. Started buying back stock, paying a dividend, etc. But then there's this funky filing from 4/16/24 that RNsidersbuying mentioned-
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1058811/000121390024033529/immr-20240416.htm
What are they thinking here?? Getting involved with nearly bankrupt BNED? Seems like a great way to throw some money away imo
LWAY, boring packaged food company, has doubled in the past month, faster than expected.
Heck of a recovery on SMCI last week. Think from Monday's low to Friday's high...the stock was up 28%! Good luck to those holding into earnings tomorrow. I'd be taking profits after the big rebound last week. Especially after they didn't preannounce the quarterly numbers like usual (which is what sent the stock tumbling in the first place). So very unlikely to crush estimates. Outlook should continue to be strong with the AI bubble in full swing. Stock could go either way after earnings, sure to be a volatile trader. I'll be watching from the sidelines.
Hweb, Larry, IMMR the Singer family.. could you tell me a few things they have done that were shareholder unfriendly with stocks they controlled?
On IMMR, I just started looking at them, and I'm still not sure what the do or how they make money.
best.
SMCI down 1+% pre-market, possibly a healthy breath before back over 900 as earning is coming in tomorrow.
TSLA up 10+% pre-market due to FSD win in China, confirming the rapid progress in full self driving which may become a reality by the end of THIS year.
CASH, ended up with largest Percentage cash
position last week that I can
remember since fall of 2019...
2019 was on a profit taking binge,
while this year has been more tuck
and curl mode moving...
Doesn't seem like the Friday week
ago ending week was a fluke, and
hope to be less gambler till we
wait for more weakness confirmation...
Don't put off till May what you can
do today...
has been the play book approach...
Will buy a gap filling play in the
right spot if it comes out of the blue...
so we watch...LJ
The coming week time again? for a new jump? About 2 months ago was the first one - time will tell. Trades on OTC and TSX
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/ESM.TO/overview
PGNT any shareholders out there please email me
Nonamestocksdan@gmail.com
R59- TPC/STRL/PRIM- Roads and Bridges
Re, do you think the infrastructure Bill, which ends Dec 31, 2026, will keep boosting revenues and earnings for companies ie TPC. STRL, and PRIM ? Do you feel that these companies stock prices will keep rising, despite the fact that funding will end in 2.5 years. I mean one could say, yes these stocks have risen a lot, but the increased revenues and earnings are only temporary. In that case, the question is, at what point does a multi year boom for an industry keep boosting stock prices for historically ?
TDAM to Schwab transition. One of my accounts shifted to Schwab last year. The rest will transition in two weeks. I also noticed that I lost all my balance history prior to the changeover. At TDAM, the history went back to 2016, making it easy to see how my accounts have done over the years. Overall, I do not like the Schwab website and wish I could have stuck with TDAmeritrade.
Final Pick 4 Contest #19 Results In (Week 17)
Hope everyone enjoys the stats. Below is the link to the board. Have a great weekend everyone.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Pick-4-Contest-No-19-42580
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