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IART($28.90)- Wadegarret portfolio holding into earnings
Generally I don't like to hold, but this medical device manufacturer has gotten decimated. I believe the stock is over sold, and could go up 35%+ next week if things are any better than horrible ! They said in their last earnings report, that they expect the Boston Factory to be up and running again by June. However, when they delayed the Q1 report by 3 weeks, investors feared the worst, and sent the stock down another 15% ! So here we are, a $75 stock 2-3 years ago, and now $28.90 ! In the meantime, the company gave guidance of $3.19 for 2024, and analysts feel $3.60 in 2025, assuming the Boston Factory comes back on line soon. PEs in the medical device sector average 25 going forward !
RUN 11.90 - the May3rd, now expired, call-option-trade worked out nicely and I'll also now wait on the sidelines until after the earnings report. I also like ENPH...it's high on my solar watchlist...will very likely join you in ENPH with covered calls if the premiums remain lucrative.
I see the solar-sector as Can'tMiss longterm however shortterm it's in a deep rut for many reasons...
p.s. The Ameritrade option screen was my absolute go-to when trading options...I'll miss their option-screen moreso than any other facet of trading at ameritrade.
Wadegarret portfolio- up 44% YTD/up 277% since 2022
SSKMP Trades
Sell 2,000 Shares of ACCO
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
COHN thx for all that info.
COHN - I think it's possible they could have another good earnings report. I own it and did pick up a few more today. The CEO did say this in the last earnings PR:
Trump Media’s accounting firm charged with ‘massive fraud’: https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/03/business/trump-media-accounting-firm-charged-fraud/index.html
IART
I'm holding into earnings. Of course I can think of them saying something horrific that could take the stock down even lower. There are no guarantees in the stock market, it is all about probabilities. we know this quarter isn't gonna be good that is a given even if they hit previous guidance. Will they maintain guidance? will they lower guidance? by how much if they do? What is going on with Boston? All of these things will factor, I believe a lot is priced in, but if they come on and tell us boston can't be restarted anytime soon, costs are going through the roof and sales are going down. Guess what the stock is gonna go even lower, now do I think that is what is coming. the answer is no. Than again I have been wrong with this stock so far. so time will tell. And as I always say you never know with earnings. Hope this helps. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
COHN they could have a nice report.. like last qtr, and they just want to talk about it. Or it could be that those f'ers just forgot that they xclled their conf calls and/or whoever sent this thang out meant it to just mention their earnings release, but accidentally stuck the normal CC time. Do you think this could mean good earnings news?
Do you still own this one? I've traded it a few times for small change since earnings.... I still have a very dinky position
best.
Hweb- SMCI
No need to pull the trigger on that one IMO. Bottom line is, if they were surprised by "stiff competition" taking down Q1 estimates, then it can keep happening, and IMO probably will. This is a dead cat bounce for SMCI & I feel it will settle around $700 or less over the next month. Now IART and AAOI are are the big potentials for next week. Both have been pummled, and either one could rally 50% with a better than expected Q1(Q2 guidence) report.
COHN - Wonder what's going on? This is from their last earnings PR on March 6:
IART & AAOI- Q2 report next Monday & Thursday
Both in the morning.
SS- IART
Are you holding into earnings Monday morning ? How much lower can this stock go if there is negative news about the Boston Factory ? I would think all bad news is pretty much baked in- no ?
GERN down 10% since Q1 earnings report
Why ? Probably because they had to extend phase 3 for the use of Imetelstat in Myelofibrosis by six months. No biggie IMO, but the market seems to really not like it. I mean the use of Imetelstat for MDS is what GERN is waiting for FDA approval on June 16. I personally think there is still fear that the FDA has it out for GERN, and I decided to lighten up on GERN today in Wadegarret, as it seems negativity has set in, and may remain till June 16
Another nice recovery on SMCI. Down near $700 on Wednesday. Up over $800 today. Congrats to those who bought. I was tempted, but never pulled the trigger.
DTRK - Hweb, I don't know why you're so worried about the liquidity. There have already been 150 shares traded so far, and it's not even midday!
Anyone follow OSPN? Terrific Q1 numbers caught my eye. Seems to be unusually strong though. CC talked about how some revenue got delayed into the quarter...and pulled forward from future quarters. Think $5M in total. I like the cost cutting at least. Guidance for the rest of the year suggests more tepid results going forward. But the stock has a low in the $11's today, high in the $14's. So might be worth trading.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/onespan-reports-first-quarter-2024-200100407.html
IESC $169.50 + $32.64 Another great quarter posted this morning. This stock has had an incredible run this year with the 52-week low being $42.44. Even normalizing the GM back to the previous quarter's, it was still really good. Backlog dropped a little. You just wonder if these guys can keep up this blistering growth rate. Looks like no analyst coverage and no conference calls.
HYZN, took a long long term position this morning. Interview about 1 minute in. Still burning cash and earnings in about 2 weeks.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/hyzon-ceo-parker-meeks-we-are-proud-to-have-hydrogen-fuel-cell-technology/vi-BB1knj9U?ocid=socialshare#details
RMAX +1.55 to 8.71 after a slight earnings beat ...... evidently traders were expecting a big miss. I trimmed some shares, but will buy back lower if there's a big pullback.
briefing -
RE/MAX Holdings beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs in-line; guides FY24 revs in-line (7.16 -0.04) :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.20 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.19; revenues fell 8.3% year/year to $78.29 mln vs the $77.75 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues in-line guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $75-80 mln vs. $78.58 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues in-line guidance for FY24, sees FY24 revs of $300-320 mln vs. $310.66 mln FactSet Consensus.
ACCO
Getting out of my small position in ACCO. This quarter revs was even more of a short fall than I expected. The revenue guidance was even worse as well. And eps guidnace was a slight take down. I was disappointed, may revisit later, as cost cutting seems to be going well, but at some point I know they are getting out of low margin business, but I would like to see there other business dare I say grow faster or grow at all in some cases. it just isn't happening at this point. So decided to move on. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
Fed rate cut probabilities went up as bond rates fell on the weaker than expected jobs report. Goldilocks !
Wow futures are soaring! I didn't quite understand what was it about the jobs report that was so incredibly bullish?
S&P futures surge 55 points higher after a weaker than expected April Jobs Report -
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
NVDA seems more liked by M.S. than
SMCI...
https://investorplace.com/2024/04/morgan-stanley-is-doubling-down-on-nvidia-nvda-stock/#:~:text=Morgan%20Stanley%20(NYSE%3AMS),rating%20and%20%241%2C000%20price%20target.
but my adds again on weakness
were higher on SMCI this time...
SMCI currently has a higher Average
price target than NVDA,,,
but that is easy to understood by the
much lower share count of SMCI...
and Dell already had a liquid cooling
product before SMCI that is helping
drive the SMCI current quarter's growth...
Market seems to be large...
So we watch...LJ
Glad you did well with AESI .... I've also been trimming my O&G related holdings. Oil prices may continue to slowly trend lower as suggested by the backwardation of the futures market .....
SBOW, VTLE
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 5/2/24)
Daily Performance
+0.34%
YTD Performance
+1.33%
Overall Performance
+478.00% (Including Options Trading +341.98%)
AESI...researcher, Got to thinking about o&g prices and decided to sell 1/3 of my AESI holdings today (@$22+) before the report next week. I have good profits in the stock and thought it would be a good idea to take some off the table. Still hold a decent position though and thanks again for the heads-up last December.
Also...
Going to ride my entire FTK position into earnings.
Sold some SBOW today and will hold the rest for now.
PSIX 2.15 - getting some Form-4 love from "Gagnon Securities"...
At Gagnon Securities, we pride ourselves on being different. Our investment premise is that the universe of lesser-known companies is largely inefficient. Companies can quietly dominate unrecognized niches and nimble innovators can be poised to thrive before they appear on the radar screens of the broader investment community. We employ a fundamental approach that seeks to identify and invest in companies that represent under-appreciated value.
https://www.gagnonsec.com/strategy
PSIX should be filing their Q1 report any day now...
SSKMP Trades
Sell 1,000 Shares of AES
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
Nice alert on DTRK! Bought a tiny amount for fun. Stock is super cheap (even after today's 500% move ha). But the liquidity could quickly dry up after today's explosion. They don't release PRs on the newswires. And we may not see another financial statement from them for another year. Kinda weird too...when you go to their website, you get directed to their Fountayn subsidiary. Does Datatrack not have a website? Pretty shocking for a software company. Doesn't exactly scream cutting-edge technology.
https://www.fountayn.com/about
AES
Sold AES Today at $18.47. They are reporting after the bell today. I am worried analyst estimates are once again too high in the 1rst half, because there earnings are significantly back end weighted toward the 2nd half. I strongly believe the company should still go higher in the long run, but we are going into resistance near overbrought levels (RSI High 60's). Time will tell, but I think I will be able to buyback cheaper after the quarter. Had almost a 20% profit anyways on it, counting the divy I will be getting, so decided to take it. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
GENC is cheaper than most infrastructure stocks imo. But yeah, it's moved up some...so I'm taking profits too. They should report their seasonally strong fiscal Q2 numbers next week. Should be another great quarter, based on the large backlog increase last quarter. Won't be the easiest comp tho. I think the stock gets a bump higher, but I def liked GENC more in the $15's
STCN...$12.50. Inched up to a 52wk High.⬆️...Very illiquid though.
GENC back up a bit, you still holding some hweb? I sold a few basically at current levels. Not that it was a huge gain or anything from my buy, I guess only 10%.
Good eye NNS!
Don't like all those share issuances year-to-date, but the P/E is still just 4 nonetheless. And the tone of the PR, including the stock buy-back, struck me as very bullish for 2024.
The float is just 1.2M despite all those additional shares issued this year...
PE isn’t 1. Check the share count issuances in January
Not saying it ain’t cheap. But share count has 4x’d
CSPI looks interesting around $12 after the sharp pullback. Earnings in less than 2 weeks. Easier comp at least. Supposed to see 1st revenues from AZT. I'll prob pick up a few shares heading into the report. Unfortunately the stock is still overvalued based on the puny fundamentals. But if they offer an exciting outlook for AZT, the stock could def shoot higher.
Great find.
May I ask how you find these, are you just looking at the daily filings?
I started using RSS feeds on my favorite tickers thru the sec website. Helps when the company files 8k without a formal press release.
CSPI...Now @ $12...Stay tuned for next week's webinar...
(I added back a bit today going into the webinar & earnings)
ARIA and Rockwell Automation Discuss the Unique Requirements to Protect Industrial Applications in Their Latest Webinar
Webinar: CybeRx - How to Automatically Protect Rockwell OT Customers from Today's Cyber-attacks
LOWELL, MA / ACCESSWIRE / April 25, 2024 / ARIA Cybersecurity Solutions, a CSPi business (NASDAQ:CSPI), has warned of the rapidly escalating cybersecurity risks facing companies with operational technology (OT) in the manufacturing sector. In a new webinar, "CybeRx - How to Automatically Protect Rockwell OT Customers from Today's Cyber-Attacks" we will discuss why the Perdue model, passive defenses and AV/NGAV are not stopping the most dangerous attacks.
In this webinar you will hear from Rockwell about the unique set of requirements that are needed to protect your production application's attack surface and how Aria's AZT Protect has helped meet this need. We will delve into the composition of supply chain attacks and finally hear about a case study in how one of the world's largest pharma manufactures used ARIA AZT PROTECT in combination with Rockwell's industrial automation suite to protect their environment and meet their challenging OT requirements.
Gary Southwell, General Manager of ARIA Cybersecurity, is joined by Thomas House, Life Sciences Cyber and Digital Consultant, Rockwell Automation.
Webinar scheduled for Thursday, May 9, 2024
11:00 AM EDT
To access the full webinar, please visit: https://hubs.ly/Q02t-sv20
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aria-rockwell-automation-discuss-unique-120000711.html
DRTK thanks for the alert
Followed this for years, and figured it would find its way to sub-penny eventually. This was not the zombie corpse I thought would ever rise again.
Grabbed a few DTRK($.40); P/E is 1
This morning, the company reported diluted 2023 EPS of $.38. And then there was this from the PR; they reported
"Closing the company’s largest sales contract in a decade that provides seven-figure
recurring revenue for the company for the next several years and likely to expand into
additional future revenues."
https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/dns/news/document/74354/content
GERN - Seeking Alpha article
Geron: FDA PDUFA Review With Continued Imetelstat Advancement
May 01, 2024 4:23 PM ETGeron Corporation (GERN) StockGERNW6 Comments
Terry Chrisomalis profile picture
Terry Chrisomalis
Investing Group Leader
Summary
Geron Corporation has a PDUFA date of June 16th of 2024 for the FDA to decide upon whether imetelstat should be approved for patients with low-risk myelodysplastic syndrome.
The FDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee already voted in favor of imetelstat 12 to 2 for patients with low-risk myelodysplastic syndrome.
The European Commission has already accepted the MAA for review of imetelstat for low-risk myelodysplastic syndrome; European approval is possible in 2025.
Imetelstat is also being evaluated in the ongoing phase 3 IMpactMF study for the treatment of patients of relapsed/refractory MF; Interim analysis expected in the 1st half of 2025 and final data expected in the 1st half of 2026.
Tablet, reading and woman scientist in laboratory working on medical research, project or experiment. Science, career and female researcher with digital technology for pharmaceutical innovation.
Jacob Wackerhausen
Geron Corporation (NASDAQ:GERN) is gearing up for a major milestone as a biotech company. It has a PDUFA date set for June 16th of 2024, which is the date by which the FDA will decide whether imetelstat should be approved for the treatment of patients with low-risk myelodysplastic syndrome [LR-MDS]. These are patients who have failed to respond, lost response to or ineligible for Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents [ESAs]. An FDA advisory panel already voted in favor of imetelstat for this LR-MDS patient population, recommending that the risk-benefit profile is ideal for regulatory approval of it.
The FDA still has to approve it based on this recommendation. However, with such a recommendation, I don't see how the FDA could reject approval. This regulatory approval is only going to be based on its ability to market this drug in the United States only.
It is already in the process of having imetelstat reviewed for the same patient population for Europe. That is, the European Commission [EC] is already in the process of reviewing it for possible approval for all the European territories as well. Should the review go well, then it is expected that this drug could possibly be approved for these territories in 2025. Lastly, the goal is to advance imetelstat for multiple indications. As such, it is also running another phase 3 study as part of its pipeline known as IMpactMF, which is using imetelstat for the treatment of patients with relapsed/refractory Myelofibrosis [MF] or r/r MF. An interim analysis from this trial is expected in the 1st half of 2025 and from there, a final analysis from this late-stage study is expected in the first half of 2026.
FDA Review Date Catalyst Rapidly Approaching For Imetelstat
The main program in Geron's pipeline would be the use of imetelstat for the treatment of patients with low-risk myelodysplastic syndrome [LR-MDS]. These are patients who do not even respond to standard of care [SOC] Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents [ESAs]. The potential here is massive because it has already gone on to accomplish several items to potentially obtain FDA approval of imetelstat for the treatment of this patient population. Matter of fact, everything seems to be lining up perfectly thus far. The only hurdle left now would be the actual FDA review date that has been set up. This is a PDUFA date of June 16th of 2024, where the agency will decide whether imetelstat should be approved for the treatment of these patients with LR-MDS. Myelodysplastic Syndrome [MDS] is a type of blood disorder characterized as the spongy material inside the bones not working properly. In turn, it cannot produce red blood cells [RBCs] in an adequate fashion for these patients. Some symptoms that these patients experience are as follows:
Shortness of breath
Fatigue
Pale skin color due to anemia
Unusual types of bruising occurring.
The global Myelodysplastic Syndrome market is expected to reach $6.63 billion by 2030. However, in the case of Geron, it is specifically going after low-risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome patients. This is a huge population to go after still, even if it were only to target this subpopulation.
What makes me say that? Well, it is said that approximately 68% of patients remain in the low-risk category. Plus, there is another highly important item to note, which is that the patients being targeted are an unmet need. These are low-risk MDS patients who have failed to respond, stop responding to, or ineligible to receive SOC Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents [ESAs]. What are these ESAs, and how do they help these patients? In essence, what they do is stimulate the bone marrow to produce more RBCs than a patient needs. In addition, it is also used to greatly reduce the number of blood transfusions being done.
The real question is, why should investors look into this upcoming PDUFA date of imetelstat for the treatment of these LR-MDS patients? As with all regulatory drug approvals, nothing is guaranteed. However, in this case, I believe that there is a good chance that it be approved to treat this specific patient population. The basis of this statement is because of the highly positive vote that was obtained from the FDA advisory panel. That is, the FDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee voted 12 to 2 in favor of recommending approval of imetelstat. This is highly positive, and I believe there is a good chance that it will be approved. However, it is ultimately up to the FDA and there is always a chance that it may end up rejecting U.S. marketing approval. It's important to keep in mind that the FDA uses these panels as recommendations, but ultimately doesn't have to follow them.
Besides the positive vote, I believe there is another excellent reason on why FDA approval is almost guaranteed. It is because of the primary endpoint being met in the phase 3 IMerge study. This study recruited such low-risk MDS patients and was testing the use of imetelstat compared to placebo because of transfusion independence over a consecutive 8-week period for 12 months. Most MDS patients have a need for transfusions to be able to stimulate their blood cells; thus, the primary endpoint was to achieve red blood cell transfusion independence [RBC-TI] over this period. It was shown that RBC-TI was superior in the imetelstat treatment group compared to the placebo treated group. As such, treatment with the drug was statistically significant compared to placebo, with a p-value of p<0.001.
If it were only the FDA PDUFA date approaching as a milestone in terms of regulatory approval, that would be one thing, but there might be another territory that it could receive approval of imetelstat for. This would be regarding an already submitted Marketing Authorization Application [MAA] of this drug for the treatment of this patient population to the European Commission [EC]. If the review for this territory goes well, then Geron can possibly also receive marketing approval of imetelstat for LR-MDS patients in the European territories in 2025 as well.
Possible Expansion Opportunity Of Imetelstat Can Lead To Another Catalyst
The thing is that while the PDUFA date is a near-term catalyst that Geron has, that doesn't mean that it is not working on expanding the use of imetelstat towards the treatment of other hematological malignancy [blood cancer] patient populations. The reason why this is possible is because of telomerase inhibition, whereby telomerase is no longer in place. Without telomerase being in place, this leads to cells becoming shorter upon division and eventually dying off [apoptosis].
To see if Geron can advance the use of imetelstat for another blood disorder, it has initiated a phase 3 study known as IMpactMF. This particular late-stage study is using this drug to treat patients with relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis [MF]. That is, to recruit intermediate-2 to high-risk MF patients who relapse after Janus associated kinase [JAK] inhibitor treatment. Myelofibrosis [MF] is characterized as a rare bone marrow cancer where scarring occurs, thus leading to a lower than expected production of red blood cells [RBCs].
This low amount of blood cells leads to anemia [low blood cell count], which leads to weakness or fatigue. The global Myelofibrosis market size is projected to reach $2.89 billion by 2031. However, Geron believes that between the United States and Europe for the targeting of relapsed/refractory MF patients, it could target a >$3.5 billion market opportunity.
How is it even possible for imetelstat to help these r/r MF patients? That's because of how dire this patient population is. Especially, when you find out that a large majority of them fail when taking JAK inhibitors. It is noted that there is a discontinuation rate of 75% after 5 years with this treatment option. Thus, a drug like imetelstat could be given instead to patients that might improve their response. Having said that, this IMpactMF phase 3 study, is a first of its kind trial deploying overall survival [OS] as the primary endpoint for this specific study.
The reason why I brought up this program is that in the early part of next year, there is a major milestone expected for it. It is expected that an interim analysis from this phase 3 IMpactMF study will be released in the 1st half of 2025. From there, a full final analysis from this late-stage registrational trial is expected to be released in the 1st half of 2026.
Financials
According to the 10-K SEC Filing, Geron Corporation had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $378.1 million as of December 31, 2023. The reason for the cash on hand is because of several financial transactions it enacted in 2023. It received about $213.3 million from an underwritten public offering of common stock and pre-funded warrants in January 2023.
In addition, it received $105.9 million from the exercise of outstanding warrants and $29.7 million in net proceeds drawn down from a Loan Agreement with Hercules and SVB. It believed that this would be enough cash to fund its operations into Q3 of 2025. However, it also has to account for the funds it will need to prepare for possible commercialization of imetelstat for LR-MDS. As such, it enacted a huge cash raise with the pricing of an underwritten offering. With this offering, it raised approximately $150 million in gross proceeds.
With the cash on hand, plus the gross proceeds raised from this recent offering, this should extend Geron Corporation's cash runway into the early part of 2026. Its cash burn is about $394.6 million per year.
Risks To Business
There are several risks that investors should be aware of before investing in Geron. The first risk to consider would be regarding the upcoming PDUFA date of June 16th of 2024, where the FDA will decide if imetelstat should be approved for the treatment of patients with low-risk myelodysplastic syndrome [LR-MDS]. Even though the advisory FDA panel voted in favor of recommending imetelstat for the treatment of this patient population, there is no assurance that U.S. marketing approval will be achieved. As I stated above, the FDA only takes the recommendation of the advisor panel, but it doesn't have to abide by it.
A second risk to consider would be regarding the ongoing review by the European Commission [EC] of imetelstat for the treatment of patients with low-risk myelodysplastic syndrome. Even though the regulatory application was accepted for review, there is no guarantee that the drug will be approved for the treatment of this patient population in the European territories.
The third and final risk to consider would be regarding the possible expansion opportunity of imetelstat I described above. This would be regarding the ongoing phase 3 IMpactMF study, which is using this drug for the treatment of patients with relapsed/refractory MF. An interim analysis from this late-stage trial is expected to happen in the early part of 2025 and there is no assurance that positive results will be achieved for it. Nor, that there will be a positive outcome when the final analysis is revealed in 2026.
Conclusion
Geron Corporation is gearing up to have a huge inflection point for investors to keep an eye on. This would be regarding the PDUFA review date of June 16th of 2024 of imetelstat for the treatment of patients with transfusion-dependent [TD] anemia in adult patients with LR-MDS who have not responded to or lost response to or are ineligible for erythropoiesis stimulating agents [ESAs]. This possible regulatory approval for this drug is only the beginning because there is an ongoing review by the European Commission for the European territories.
I believe that the last point to make is that telomerase expression is observed in about 90% of biopsies taking in various types of cancer. As such, it has already advanced its pipeline towards the use of imetelstat for the targeting of front-line MF patients [IMproveMF] and for the targeting of relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia and high-risk MDS patients [IMpress]. There is no assurance that the drug will work out for either of these other hematological malignancies, but they do provide additional shots on goal for the pipeline.
Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
This article was written by
Terry Chrisomalis profile picture
Terry Chrisomalis
12.38K Followers
Terry Chrisomalis is a private investor in the Biotech sector with years of experience utilizing his Applied Science background to generate long term value from Healthcare.
He is the author of the investing group Biotech Analysis Central which contains a library of 600+ Biotech investing articles, a model portfolio of 10+ small and mid-cap stocks with deep analysis for each, live chat, and a range of analysis and news reports to help Healthcare investors make informed decisions. Learn more.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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Breaking - Peloton Interactive gains after announcing CEO resignation, more jobs cuts
Great summary. SMCI will earn about 8 this quarter, about 40 in the fiscal year starting July 1, 2024, and grow many quarters to come because of her competitive advantage.
SMCI forecasting 30%+ revenue growth in current quarter
versus quarter just reported...
SMCI forecasts 5.1 billion to 5.5 billion
for current quarter versus the 3.85 billion
for quarter just reported...
CC transcript link...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-computer-inc-nasdaq-144129328.html
DLC server rack items caused a
surge in inventory at end of quarter
just reported to meet the demand
coming in the current quarter...
CC actually helped explain things...
It doesn't forecast the distant future,
but it hints the sell off was overdone...
So we watch...LJ
Wildcard seems holding anything with good earnings
in this market right now...
Hopefully, the market got the J.P.
flop out of its system...
Timing is bad for oil/gas companies
reporting now with oil price falling and
little relief from spot natural gas prices...
And of course, this is a market that can
forget that these are high oil prices...
So we watch...LJ
JAZZ
Reported after the bell. The quarter was clearly a miss to analyst expectations (Basically missed by $1.50), but guidance remains the same. hence my opinion remains unchanged.
Why do I feel confident they will hit guidance for the fy if not exceed it? It really does beg the question are you just ignoring the facts that you might be wrong here. Let me explain why I feel I'm not wrong.
Well Q1 $2.68 had many moving parts. For starter q1 is seasonally weak, many of there drugs get stocked up late in the FY q3 and q4, and q1, is a working off inventory type of quarter hence that was a significant factor to top line growth of numerous drugs which will increase significantly in q2 and continued ramp throughout the year. So q1 will always be much weaker than the other quarters, so you can never annualize q1 because of it.
Revs were also affected by a huge drop in Xyrem revs, as people have switched to Xrwav, shown by a decent (As they said one time significant jump in a sequential jump in Xrwav patients. The good news is there people will be paying customers (Most likely) The bad news is to get them off Xyrem to Xrwav, is basically a 1-2 month thing, where the company basically provides free samples is my understanding from the cc. Now They generally get the insurance to cover these patients going foward (But it takes 1-2 months to make the switch/transition) so these people will be paying customers by there insurance come q2 and beyond (At least for the most part), but as a result we got a much larger drop in Xyrem revs because of this, and the Xrwav Revs Will grow significantly in q2 (But the increase in patients didn't really help q1 revs very much) and beyond sequentially, but because of the process my understanding is this was another significant headwind in q1, but with benefit in q2 and beyond as obviously JAZZ is moving the revs to Xyrev, and the royalities from the high sodium oxbate, is how they will get there revs going foward as Xyrem because much, much less important.
Furthermore SGA had some higher legal costs, and a higher bad debt expense, that they gave the idea that this stuff probably won't continue at these levels in future quarters.
Furthermore the tax rate was significantly higher for q1 than where it was and is forecasted to be. Hence that almost hit earnings for another .50 right there alone. But they indicate the tax rate remain unchanged for the year, with a timing issue hence that will help EPS in future quarters.
Furthermore I'm very excited about the pipeline. With Zantidamab more near term in fact revs might be coming in as early 2025 if we get approval if not sooner. Longer-term this drug is projected to possibly have a 2 billion+ peak potential. of course still unknown if it can get there or even approved for that matter, and with all drugs they are like prospects in baseball, but it sure does sound exciting, granted I'm no medical expert.
Furthermore on the slides they talked about fy 25. They talked about getting adjusted operating margins up 5% from fy 21 levels, which were around 43%. The are talking about being at 43% for the rest of the year, so 5% more, if they even come close, and forget the 500 million in business development revs, even if they do 4.5 billion in fy 25. Things get very exciting if they increase operating margins anywhere near that.
I still see alot of waaaaaaaaaaays to win with JAZZ here. of course i won't be surprised if it is down tomorrow possibly making a new 52 week lows, but I still think they could do close to $20 this year (Market won't probably give them the benefit of the doubt), Considering they have an impressive pipeline, and possible increase in adjusted operating margins in fy 25, combined with increased revenue growth from it's existing drugs, and possibly the introduction of a possible huge blockbuster on zantidamab, and the drop in Xyrem will start to have less effect on results to overcome as the amount of revs is getting much smaller as a part of total revs in my opinion, at a absurdly cheap valuation. Anyways time will tell, but wanted to give an update on what I thought about JAZZ, obviously the quarter on the face number was very disappointing, but there are reasonable reason for what happened here, and why they should hit guidance in FY 24, and possibly even better news in FY 25. Time will tell. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
CLMB...Earnings report came in a bit soft (although not terrible). Taken from the management commentary..."During the quarter we experienced softer volumes across select key vendors, primarily related to the timing of their respective sales cycles. This includes a key vendor from our acquisition of DataSolutions in October 2023. Although this adversely affected our bottom line in Q1, we expect to return to growth with these vendors in the back half of the year."
The cc is early tomorrow. Should be interesting.
Climb Global Solutions Reports First Quarter 2024 Results
Q1 2024 Net Sales Up 9% YoY to $92.4 Million, with Adjusted Gross Billings Up 16% to $355.3 Million
EATONTOWN, N.J., May 01, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Climb Global Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLMB) (“Climb”, the “Company”, “we”, or “our”), a value-added global IT channel company providing unique sales and distribution solutions for innovative technology vendors, is reporting results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024.
First Quarter 2024 Summary vs. Same Year-Ago Quarter
Net sales increased 9% to $92.4 million.
Adjusted gross billings (a non-GAAP financial measure defined below) increased 16% to $355.3 million.
Net income was $2.7 million or $0.60 per diluted share compared to $3.3 million or $0.74 per diluted share.
Adjusted EBITDA (a non-GAAP financial measure defined below) was $5.5 million compared to $5.7 million.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/climb-global-solutions-reports-first-200500876.html
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