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chips...China military keeps Taiwan Strait secure...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/27/chinese-jets-fly-sorties-over-taiwan-strait-in-show-of-force-as-us-delegation-departs
so we watch...LJ
04/26/24 DTCC rule changes heads up
for the bigger swingers...
https://stocktwits.com/JoeCoolTrader/message/571027147
DTCC rule change link
https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2024/4/26/B20002-24.pdf
So we watch...LJ
TPC vs PRIM
TPC has 40% the market cap of PRIM. Both companies are doing well for the Infrastructure Bill. TPC looks to have analysts expecting 80% growth in 2025 vs 2024 vs 20% for PRIM. The question is, what should the valuation be. For TPC, in which $1.50 eps is expected in 2025 ? the stock is selling for a 12 going forward. For PRIM, analysts expect $3.28 eps for 2025, so a 14 PE going forward. In addition, backlog for TPC as of Dec 31,2023 grew 26% vs 20% for PRIM. Lastly PRIM pays a dividend, and TPC doesn't.
However, the big question is, if you think the Infrastructure Bill(to last till Dec 31, 2026) will continue to benefit roads and bridges stocks for the next couple years, which company has more upside potential % wise. At first glance is surely appears like TPC is the winner. However one would have to look at the PEs for both TPC and PRIM over a long period of time to see which one garners the higher PE in general. Also PRIM is over twice as large on a market cap basis, so that might mean something. Lastly PRIM does pay a dividend, all though only around .5%. Hard to know for sure, but with the stronger earnings growth of TPC vs PRIM, yet a lower PE, it seems it would TPC, even after the unreal run it's had over the last year, may still have more potential % upside vs PRIM. However important to note is, analysts only have a $15 average price target on TPC, while PRIM a $55 target. I suspect though that the price target for TPC will go up after the latest qtr that only came out a day ago(analysts have not upgraded yet).
Wadegarret managed portfolio- up 36% YTD/up 256% since Jan 22
WTFCP
Sold WTFCP around $25. It becomes less attractive up here. I will buy it back on weakness, just think I will get a better opportunity to buy it back at lower prices. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
CUBI
Have to say the way they did this thing with the old CFO first they fired her for cause, and now we are told it is a mutual decision rubbed me the wrong way. Don't like when a story changes. That is a big one for me too overcome.
They have some tough comps going foward.
They added those 10 new teams recently is gonna add 8-10 million expenses a quarter, eventually the revs will make it profitable, but in the short-term that is gonna hit earnings is my understanding. It sounds really positive for helping NIMS and profitability in 2025 and beyond. So get me wrong I think it will be positive in the long run, but might be negative in the short run.
NIMS should improve through the year, so that should help sequentially, but expenses should be higher with the teams.
Based on guidance I see CUBI As cheap with the $1.68 adjusted core in q1, and probably earnings be about $7-7.50 in fy 2024 with significant growth in fy 25. If it wasn't for the CFO thing probably would of brought some at $45 today. On the fence here though, but too be honest I like two banks better, than CUBI that I don't own. Not buying anything today with the huge rally in the markets going into a weekend. But I do still like it, but do admit the CFO thing is really my primary issue with CUBI right now. Minor things are the comps won't be great (specifically in q3), and expenses will be up in the short-term as well. I like CUBI overall, but there are a few things I don't love as well. Hence I'm on the fence with it. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
SSKMP Trades
Sell 1,000 Shares of CBBI
Sell 1,000 Shares of PERI
Sell 500 Shares of WTFCP
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
DJT +4.04 to 42.53, the shorts have sure gotten burned recently with the stock nearly doubling in the past 10 days, not to mention the extreme borrow rate they're paying, an astronomic 885% at IB yet no shares are available !
PERI(11.85)
Thanks for your analysis and timely alert the other day at 10.85
CNC
I thought the CNC quarter today was real solid despite the negative reaction. Now the EPS floor is up to $6.80, my gut is this number will be north of $7.00 when we are done with more growth happening in FY 25. Time will tell. But liked the CNC quarter here. Just thought I would mention what I thought about the CNC Quarter. End result is I still like it here and think it is undervalued. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
E*Trade has what I'm looking for .... the data on investing.com is available at many brokers and websites. I was looking for historic changes in estimates, not the final estimate and actual EPS. Often estimates trend lower as the reporting date approaches.
Thank you E*Trade !
I have several brokerage accounts .... most are inactive with just a few dollars in SGOV to keep the account open. That way I have access to any research or other data they may uniquely offer.
Fidelity and Merrill don't have the historic analyst estimates data that Ameritrade has, but thankfully Etrade (now Morgan Stanley) has the same data as Ameritrade ! So I can use Etrade for that info.
Maybe it's available for free at Zacks or another website, but I'm not currently aware of any.
researcher this probably isn't exactly what you're looking for but investing.com has some of that historic information. You can go back a number of years but it isn't in chart format.
https://www.investing.com/equities/ibm-earnings
For IBM you can go back to 2013 if you keep clicking the show more link below the the table.
True, it only shows positive and negative restatement under historical earnings "show more"
I'll miss that feature at Ameritrade ..... I'm checking out where else I might find it for free on the web. Frankly I'm shocked that Schwab doesn't provide any historic analyst estimates .... it's interesting and useful to see how their estimates are trending.
Researcher59, I don't believe there is. I have always used the site that starts with Y for that info. Obviously doesn't have the detail that ameritrade has, than again I never knew that kind of detail was available anywhere. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
To Schwab account holders - I'm migrating over in two weeks -
One very nice feature at Ameritrade is to be able to check the historic trends in earnings estimates for a particular quarter or year. On yahoo one can go back 7, 30, 60 and 90 days. On Ameritrade one can go back 4 years on a weekly basis .... so loads of detail.
I'm not finding any historic EPS estimate data on Schwab, just the current estimate. Seems rather lame, or am I not looking in the right place ?
ULH is a long term holding for me ..... all my shares are at least a year old with a few three years. "Hold and Mold" in the Bobwins tradition has worked out well in this particular stock. I did trim about 20% of my shares ahead of the report because other truckers were reporting disappointing numbers. Didn't think the logistics business would be that hot. If it's just partly sustainable the stock is still cheap compared to other truckers.
CBBI
The deposits decline was out of whack. Deposits have been around flat to slightly up sequentially for most regional banks. These Guys the deposits declined 6.4% sequentially not annually. Sequentially. I haven't seen too many banks that have had deposits drop 6.4% sequentially that is an insane drop in my opinion. I get the acquisition target thing, but that is not a reason to invest in it. Wouldn't be surprised if earnings are in the .30's in a couple of quarters. Before this quarter I thought they would do about $2.50 over the next 4 quarters, now I think in a couple of quarters they will be annualizing at $1.50 at best. But more important than anything that put me in a state of panic when I seen the numbers this morning was the drop in deposits that was outrageous for a sequential drop in my opinion.
CBBI thx for that analysis.
CBBI -.21 to 9.54, yeah those significant declines in various metrics is quite concerning, but book value of $22.49 is rising and might make the bank an attractive acquisition target.
CBBI
Sold my small position in CBBI this morning.
The report wasn't underwhelming. It stunk. Let me tell you why. Deposits are in free fall that is a huge concern for me. Earnings of .54 happened with a big gain on sale of loans in non interest income (Which probably won't happen in q2 to that extent, hence I think that will drop earnings by about .05 or so next quarter). I feel nims will continue to decline. Interest earning asset have been in decline. Loans are in decline. Now they are talking about expaning to the east, what I here even if they are correct, is some startup expenses at first before we see revs. Hence possible higher expenses in the short run. very cheap to tangible book value, but if you think earnings are going to drop from here now possibly by a decent amount over the coming quarters, and your concerned about the huge drop in deposits, drop in loans, drop in interest earnings assets. This doesn't excite me, I've seen plenty of bank reports that excite me more than this. So I decided to take my tiny loss and move on. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
Sweet alert on TPC last week! Congrats on the gain.
PPIH also getting a nice earnings pop over $8. Was tempted to grab some when it opened at $7.30. Should have dang.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/perma-pipe-international-holdings-inc-132600593.html
ULH congrats on that purchase!
PERI
I sold PERI today around $11.80. As I said in my buy post I brought for a trade. I do believe there is a longer-term case for the stock to go higher, but you never turn a trade into investment in my opinion. So I felt momentum slowing hence I sold it. I may reenter at lower prices again for another trade. All is just my opinion, and I oculd always be wrong though.
CUBI CBBI hey SSK, any thoughts on these two bank earnings reports? I have a small position in CUBI, the report looked ok but not great to me. Wondering if there is an area you might buy since its already down a bunch. And on CBBI, earnings were underwhelming.. flip side is its trading wayyyyyyy below tang book.
TPC great call and alert by Nelson. Congrats!
Ditto to KIK on GL.
TPC just sold half at $16.87 up $2.95. I did mention here less than two weeks ago that TPC preannounced very strong earnings and very strong sales (vs the analyst estimate of a decent sized loss and sales 20% below what the were preannouncing) but it was buried at the bottom of a refi 8-k and never pr'd. Earnings turned out less than that estimate but still a strong profit vs the expected loss ... I guess the analyst never saw the 8K. Hope some of you grabbed some ... I started buying at $14, but it kept on going lower... down to the low $13's ... 6% lower than before they gave the new estimate for the qtr.
best.
ULH +14.11 to 47.00 after the blowout earnings ..... I had some bids in to add shares in the mid to high $30's, but the stock opened at $40.55, so none got filled .....
TPC $16.87 + $2.98. Nice one, Nelson. I bought some shares right before the market close yesterday and flipped them after the earnings report was issued. Looks like I left some cash on the table!
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240425223754/en/Tutor-Perini-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Results
FEIM thx again great to see. Small buy but for a guy that already has millions invested.
I generally feel good about the upcoming quarter, and think they will have margin tailwinds rather than headwinds.
You seem to be referring to actual reported earnings .... I'm referring to analyst EPS estimates. Schwab provides only the current estimate and not historical estimates. For example, for AAOI, Schwab shows the Q1 expected EPS as (0.29). I'd like to know what that estimate was 3 and 6 months ago. I'd like to know how the estimate has been trending.
Unless I'm not looking in the right place, Schwab shows NO historic estimates.
Ameritrade has earnings estimate trends going back 4 years on a weekly basis depicted in chart form.
Schwab only goes back to 21 quarterly or annual
SSK - Schwab earnings estimates trend ..... in 2 weeks my Ameritrade account is moving to Schwab. I'm checking out the website now. It seems to me that Ameritrade has more stock research features.
One very nice feature at Ameritrade is to be able to check the historic trends in earnings estimates for a particular quarter or year. On yahoo one can go back 7, 30, 60 and 90 days. On Ameritrade one can go back 4 years on a weekly basis .... so loads of detail.
I'm not finding any historic EPS estimate data on Schwab, just the current estimate. Or am I not looking in the right place ?
What happens in after hours had a
reversal yesterday...
so we watch...LJ
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/25/24)
Daily Performance
-0.77%
YTD Performance
+0.66%
Overall Performance
+475.08% (Including Options Trading +339.06%)
GOOG + 13% after hour. Its cloud revenue grows faster than MSFT
Arbitrage is the strategy I use to reduce cost from time to time. But many times it backfired for me.
ULH (32.89) posts very strong Q1 earnings. EPS of $1.99 was up 91% y/y and crushed estimates for $0.73. Other trucking companies like JBHT and KNX have been missing estimates, but ULH's logistics business is on fire and more than offset weak results in their other trucking segments.
PR -
In the contract logistics segment, which includes our value-added and dedicated services, first quarter 2024 operating revenues increased 48.4% to $313.5 million, compared to $211.3 million for the same period last year. At the end of the first quarter 2024, we managed 71 value-added programs, including a recent contract logistics award that ramped-up in the first quarter and is expected to be complete by the end of 2024. This compares to 65 programs at the end of the first quarter 2023.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/universal-logistics-holdings-reports-first-203000760.html
SSKMP Trades
Sell 250 Shares of BMY
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
IART
I mean obviously the market thinks it is gonna be bad. Even I'm starting to get suprised that it is dropping this much, I thought it would hang out in the low to mid 30's when i brought it, obviously I was wrong. Obviously I think so much bad news is priced in, I would not want to see what they would have to report in terms of the numbers, guidance, Boston, etc. to drive the stock lower at this point. It has been an unmitgated disaster since I purchased this one. Obviously don't think this quarters numbers are the thing that will move the stock. News on boston and the future will. I continue to believe this is a FY 25 Growth story, with getting to growth in 2nd half of fy 24. I could be completely wrong, I have been so far. I think it is gonna take alot of bad news to push it lower at this point, but anything is possible. Having said that I still believe in the IART Story, will I be proven wrong? That is always possible. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
SMCI & NVDA- Just bet on the stock that is lower !
Whenever NVDA is higher than SMCI, bet on SMCI to go up. Whenever NVDA is lower than SMCI, bet on NVDA to go up ! That is the pattern now.
SS- IART
How bad could it be on May 6 ? I mean, what do you think the bottom for the stock would be if the Boston Factory has bad news ie it will take another 3-6 months to get it on line ?
Another small insider buy on FEIM. Same director. A few more shares, and a few days later. Bodes well for fiscal Q4. Maybe not a blowout quarter, but I think the chances of another big miss like they had in Q3 are very minimal.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/39020/000118518524000429/xslF345X05/ownership.xml
GOLD/Copper Developer Ready To Rally; https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/ESM.TO/overview
trades on the OTC as well
AAOI -.38 to 10.47, might be a 2nd half story (of this year) if the Microsoft contract ramps up .... so if AAOI drops to $8 after disappointing Q1 earnings, I'll get interested, but consider it speculative. Now at $10, a lot of pessimism is priced in.
IART($27.40)- I just bought in Wadegarret @ $27.67
I just hope they aren't going bankrupt !
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