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Aiming,
The direction was definitly to the $ 32 area.
Perhaps i should refrain from trying to make
daily predictions, as is quite useless.
My point, however, was that SFUN pps should
appreciate a bit before, and soon after the
30 day silence period is over.
I should add that my estimate for SFUN a year
from now is much more intelligently based than
my guesstimate for next weeks price level.
As for CTCH, a different story altogether, but
indeed a company worth more than 'a second look'
Regards and GLTY
Dubi
Hawaiiretireo - thanks for some back of the napkin numbers, they do a good job of arguing for a nice share price down the road... Aiming4.
Dubi - for today only (well, maybe tomorrow as well), I'm glad your prediction of $32 was off.
I missed my chance to buy back in under $29 on Monday and was stubbornly waiting for a chance to get back in under $31.
I yielded a little at the end of the day and got my shares back for a bit over $31.
Now I can afford to be a bit more patient and hope to snag a nice bargain Thurs or Fri, keeping in mind that the quiet period ends this weekend.
Hopefully your $36 prediction is a good estimate for next week's trading.
As with CTCH, thanks for another great stock pick and a solid company... Aiming4.
Markets taking ALL stocks down hard. Going to be tough to finish over 31.50 more or less green with this kind of headwind. What an ugly chart this will create
Also, keep this in mind. They should easily do 1.80 fully dilluted this year. I going to assume they can grow earnings by a conservative 50% (fully dilluted which I beleive next year is about 15-20%). That should bring us to around 2.70 eps. At the current price of 32 we are trading at about 12 times forward earnings (keep in mind, this includes ZERO service/roylaty rev from quad nrom; all 2 bit). Let's CONSERVATIVLEY give it the same forward multiple as SNDK of 21. That gives us a targeted pps of 56.70. For my initial projectection under the 50% growth model I am using a 25 (still conservative) multiple. THat gives me a target sell pps for next year of 67.50. Don't be suprised that by this time next year we are trading at 30 times and the growth rate is projected to be greater than 50%
>>We better close above 31.50 <<
My prediction is close at a wee bit over 32.
JMHO
Dubi
>>Lehman Brothers is acting as sole book-running manager, Deutsche Bank Securities is acting as co-lead manager and CIBC World Markets, William Blair & Company and Raymond James are acting as co-managers<<
Some of abovementioned reports will soon be out.
We'll have to wait a couple or so days to see if
my high positive expectations are met.
Dubi
Maybe. I have a feeling that Duetche might slap the strong buy on us they way their analyst slammed SNDK. He made reference to other compteting technologies as a threat to SNDK's royalties. I wonder who could possibley put together a competing technology ;)
Did I jinx us? We better close above 31.50 or else
On another iHub board, i predicted this message
as following:
>>Stock pick:SFUN
Current price :$ 30.80
Target price/date,
Mid Dec 2005 :$ 36
Jun 2006 : $ 45<<
(#msg-8722095)
Date posted:12/2/2005
My logic was based on the fact that the silent period
would be over, and the various PR activities and analyst
reports issued would cause the price increase.
Seems i am not too far off target
Regards,
Dubi
Nothing new though? Quad Nrom is designed to store 4 bits per cell/circut. I think you had it right in that it's nothing more than added pr.
Great news though. We popped through 31.50. That had been causing us some grief latley. Weak volume but it will work itslef out
Espana,
Apparently not only to you (lol)
Regards,
Dubi
Sounds very promising to me.
Well done, SFUN.
Britain's Dreaming of a Digital Christmas; New Report Reveals Digital Gadgets and Media Are Becoming the Gift of Choice
12/7/2005 3:15:01 AM
(More and more memory chips to be produced & used
GLASGOW, United Kingdom, Dec 07, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Britain should prepare for an avalanche of digital gadgets and data this Christmas, according to an independent report(1) published today by Crucial Technology Europe, one of the world's leading online memory upgrade providers. The report suggests that Britons will buy a total of 50 million digital gadgets this season -- nearly equivalent to one device for each adult in the country. It also indicates that the British public will take over 1.2 billion photos during the Christmas period using a digital camera or camera phone. The report identifies the 10 most popular digital gifts for Christmas 2005, with estimated sales numbers as follows:
1. Compact Discs (154.3m)
2. DVDs (130m)
3. Video games (43.6m)
4. MP3 players (13.6m)
5. MP3 downloads (11.m)
6. Portable media players (8.3m)
7. Digital cameras (8.8m)
8. Camera phones (7.6m)
9. Sony Playstation Portables (PSPs) (6m)
10. Digital storage devices (4.8m)
Of the 10 most popular digital gifts for Christmas, seven require memory cards to store digital data. There are at least 10 different formats of memory cards for use in digital cameras, mobile phones, MP3 players and other devices. Confused customers can visit www.memorycardselector.com to find the right card for their digital device.
Dubi
Hawaiiretireo,
I probably was a bit unfocused yesterday, the way
the PR reads,
Saifun unveils Quad NROM memory
Quad NROM is the first flash technology to store four-bits of information in a single memory cell.
Unveils is a term for exposing something new.
In fact a double capacity storeage feature, to their
already double capacity.
I dare say this is no simple evolution, this is revolution.
(OK i may be a wee bit carried away, but not too much)
Regards,
Dubi
>>It was VHS and that's a great point<<
Double thanks..VHS, it sure bugged me
the last hour trying hard to remember.
>> I don;t know if you read anything about
this latley but Samsung has admitted ..<<
And a hefty $ 300 mil. fine will they pay.
(Not that its going to prevent future
similar magnitude mischief, though)
I as well have been reading dozens of related
articles about patent infringments, intellectual
property being hijacked & stolen, a Chienese
semiconductor IPO being postponed......
In short, the works, half the manufactorers taking
the other remaining half to courts and whatnot.
In short, quite complicated, hence more interesting.
Regards,
Dubi
It was VHS and that's a great point. I have seen many a company make poor invesemtn decisions in my lifetime. My personal opinion is that Micron and Intel are to big and stubborn to see make Nrom work. I also wouldn;t be suprised if there was some sort of collusion going on between the big fabricators. I don;t know if you read anything about this latley but Samsung has admitted to price fixing in an effort to force Rambus out of business. THe industry is rife with corruption in this regard. I've read stories of the CEO of SNDK being at odds with SFUN's and as it stands now SNDK is the 800lb gorilla
>>the giants of teh industry such as Intel and
Micron are willing to invest so much in NAND and
NOR given what SFUN has. Does this make you wonder? <<
No engineer myself, i do remember years back, the big
deal/fight between home-video systems, Betamax against
(oops, forgot).
Hundreds of millions of USD were spent until the existing
system prevailed.
Granted, this is no exact-identical example(especially when
i have forgotten the details) but it demonstrates the huge
Tug-of-war in between the various chips.
There may of course be some applications not suitable for
SFUNs NOR, but of course that is beyond my comprehension.
Regards,
Dubi
An additional point to consider:
I have seen many-a-company turn from private to public,
and the long time it takes until the owners get used to
the difference.
All of a sudden they have investors, have to go into
details they never had to, establish good IR, PR etc.
Seems to me that Dr Boaz started with his 'right foot'
introducing the new generation product.
The great difference between private & public, and seems
SFUN founder adapts real quick.
An important point, even a crucial point i might say.
Regards,
Dubi
In my research I have concluded that with 2 bit NROM the company will do just fine. With the 4 bit NROM the company could be the next Microsoft. I'm no engineer either but I'm a bit suprised at why the giants of teh industry such as Intel and Micron are willing to invest so much in NAND and NOR given what SFUN has. Does this make you wonder?
31.50 seems to have some pretty nast resistance to work through. We'll get there! Good luck to you as well
Hawaiiretireo,
I have been waiting over 2 years for this IPO.
Being a private company, there was hardly any
info to write home about, but from the two years
expectation buzz, i decided to buy into it and
complete my thorough DD at a later stage.
In all honesty, i will never probably know the
exact differences in the technologies, advantages
etc.
I do believe, however, that this is the end of the
silence 30 day period, and the analysts reports
(which are already prepared and finalised) will
have much more insight than i can offer.
My expectations are that once the markets receives
more insight about the company, the real excitement
and buzz will commence.
Not too long a wait now.
GLTY and all SFUN longs,
Dubi
Very true. I guess something is better than nothing. What say you about the company? Are there any details in the coming months that you are waiting for/expecting?
Hawaii,
You know a lot, others do not.
The fact is that the presentation is
drawing some positive attention.
Dubi
I got this today. It's a PR put out by SFUN. I don;t see anything new out of this do you guys?
THis is coming. No question about it. I have a feeling that SFUN will have or will be part of the solution here. The scalability of the 4 bit technology might lend itself to this application? Who knows
Quite period ends this Fri. If you read the filing you'll see that the lock up is for 6 months out (or their abouts). Dulltion wise, it's not too bad.
Saifun unveils Quad NROM memory
Quad NROM is the first flash technology to store four-bits of information in a single memory cell.
Ofer Levi 6 Dec 05 17:34
Today, at the 2005 IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting in Washington DC, Saifun Semiconductors Ltd. (Nasdaq:SFUN) CEO Dr. Boaz Eitan presented the company's Quad NROM technology. Quad NROM is the first flash technology to store four-bits of information in a single memory cell
This new non-volatile memory technology doubles the storage capacity of conventional memory cells. According to Saifun, it provides a simpler architecture that requires fewer manufacturing steps and reduces manufacturing costs. The company said that Quad NROM would allow its licensees to lead the NVM market by bringing more cost-effective products to market while achieving reliability and performance comparable with that of the multi-level cell (MLC) Flash (2-bit per cell) products that are available on the market today.
Non-volatile, or flash, memory is memory that stores information without the need for energy, so that even when a consumer device containing this memory is not connected to an electricity source, the memory does not fade. This is in contrast to normal computer memory, which requires a constant energy source in order maintain itself.
Quad NROM is the next generation of the Saifun NROM, which was introduced to the market in 1998. Saifun NROM revolutionized the NVM market by enabling storage of two bits of information in a single memory cell. Since then, some of the world's leading flash manufacturers have licensed the technology for a wide range of NVM applications including stand-alone and embedded flash memory for the telecommunications, consumer electronics, networking and automotive markets.
Acording to Saifun, the simplicity of Quad NROM eliminates 40% of the most difficult fab processes, thereby increasing yield, quality and manufacturing throughput. These advantages are accentuated in the manufacture of multi-chip products where failure in any die means the entire device must be scrapped, allowing the manufacturing process of NROM-based products to be simpler and more efficient.
"Quad NROM is another milestone for Saifun as it expands its expertise in the NVM market," said Eitan "Quad NROM is more advanced than any other flash storage technology available today. Addressing all major segments of the NVM market, Saifun Quad NROM technology will enable our partners to enter and lead new market segments."
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes.co.il - on December 6, 2005
http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000036921&fid=942
Dubi
Lockup period expiration?...
Is there a lockup expiration date when the shares bought during the IPO period can start trading?
Is this a date to perhaps be wary of regarding SFUN?
Thanks... Aiming4.
NewsStory: IBM/Macronix Initiative on PhaseChange Memory
A very interesting story hawaiiretireo, it's listed below to preserve it here on iHub. I think the memory market is going to be a continuous story of evolving technologies, and a relentless push toward increasing capacity, reducing power requirements, and reducing size. I wonder how many years away the PCM technology might be from commericial use?... Aiming4
IBM, Infineon and Macronix Launch Exploratory Research Initiative on Phase Change Memory Technology
YORKTOWN HEIGHTS, NY -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 05/23/2005 -- IBM (NYSE: IBM), Infineon (NYSE: IFX) and Macronix (NASDAQ: MXICY) announced today a joint research initiative to explore the potential of a new form of computer memory technology called phase-change memory (PCM).
PCM is a novel technology that stores data by changing the state of a special material from an amorphous to a crystalline structure, rather than storing data as an electrical charge. While in its early stages, the technology shows potential for high speed, high density storage of data, while retaining data even when power is turned off. Such attributes could be beneficial in applications ranging from high performance servers to consumer electronics.
The initiative combines IBM's strengths in the research of fundamental materials and physics research, Infineon's competence in the research, development and high volume manufacturing of various memory technologies and product types and Macronix's experience in nonvolatile memory technologies.
"This collaborative effort reinforces IBM's commitment to explore new phenomena for memory applications," said T.C. Chen, vice president of science and technology, IBM Research. "The project will aim to develop the materials for high performance, advanced nonvolatile memory and evaluate these materials in realistic memory chip demonstrations."
"The initiative underlines Infineon's strong momentum in the evaluation and development of interesting emerging memory technologies," said Wilhelm Beinvogl, senior vice president of technology and innovation at Infineon's memory products group. "With this partnership combining resources from specialists in different areas, Infineon continues its long history of R&D co-operations."
"Macronix has a long history of independent and collaborative R&D on non-volatile memories. This alliance on phase-change memory research continues our never ceasing effort to seek the best technology and the best value for our customers. We believe our collective dedication on PCM will help to not only extend the non-volatile memory roadmap beyond the current floating gate, and the 2bits/cell NBit technologies but also open new market opportunities," said Miin Wu, president and CEO of Macronix International Co.
The research work will be conducted at IBM's TJ Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, NY, and the IBM Almaden Research Lab in San Jose, CA. Approximately 20-25 employees from across the three companies will be dedicated to this project.
About IBM
IBM is the world's largest information technology company, with more than 80 years of leadership in helping businesses innovate. It has a long history of innovating on behalf of society, and in recent years has launched a series of major research initiatives designed to overcome some of the "grand challenges" of science, including the Deep Blue chess-playing computer and unraveling the mysteries of protein folding with BlueGene, the world's fastest supercomputer. IBM Research is the world's largest information technology research organization, with more than 3,000 scientists and engineers at eight labs in six countries. For more information about IBM, visit www.ibm.com.
About Infineon
Infineon Technologies AG, Munich, Germany, offers semiconductor and system solutions for automotive, industrial and multimarket sectors, for applications in communication, as well as memory products. With a global presence, Infineon operates through its subsidiaries in the US from San Jose, CA, in the Asia-Pacific region from Singapore and in Japan from Tokyo. In fiscal year 2004 (ending September), the company achieved sales of Euro 7.19 billion with about 35,600 employees worldwide. Infineon is listed on the DAX index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and on the New York Stock Exchange (ticker symbol: IFX). Further information is available at www.infineon.com.
About Macronix
Founded in 1989, Macronix International Co., Ltd. (TSEC: 2337) (NASDAQ: MXICY) is headquartered in Hsinchu, Taiwan, and is one of the top eight world-class manufacturers of the Non-Volatile memory semiconductors. Macronix produces Flash and Mask ROM devices at its fabrication facilities in Taiwan utilizing design geometries down to 0.13 micron. All Macronix fabs and assembly locations are certified to the industry's quality and environmental standards. Macronix has worldwide offices in Belgium, Singapore, China, Japan, and the United States. For more information about Macronix, visit: http://www.macronix.com
http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=87252
Dr. Boaz Eitan, Chief Executive Officer of Saifun Semiconductors Presents Quad NROM(R) at IEDM
Tuesday December 6, 6:02 am ET
Quad NROM is the First Flash Technology to Store Four-Bits of Information in a Single Memory Cell
NETANYA, Israel, December 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Dr. Boaz Eitan, chief executive officer of Saifun Semiconductors, a leading provider of Non-Volatile Memory (NVM) technology, is presenting Saifun Quad NROM® at the 2005 IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting being held in Washington DC, December 5-7 2005.
Quad NROM is the first flash technology that can store four bits per cell. This breakthrough in existing NVM technology doubles the storage capacity of conventional memory cells and provides a simpler architecture that requires fewer manufacturing steps and reduces manufacturing costs. Saifun Quad NROM (4-bit per cell) allows Saifun licensees to lead the NVM market by bringing more cost-effective products to market while achieving compatible reliability and performance to the multi-level cell (MLC) Flash (2-bit per cell) products that are available on the market today.
Quad NROM is the next generation of the Saifun NROM, which was introduced to the market in 1998. Saifun NROM revolutionized the NVM market by enabling storage of two bits of information in a single memory cell. Since then, some of the world's leading flash manufacturers have licensed the technology for a wide range of NVM applications including stand-alone and embedded flash memory for the telecommunications, consumer electronics, networking and automotive markets.
"The introduction of Quad NROM comes at a time when data storage for mobile applications has emerged as the main driver for the semiconductor industry. With roughly a third smaller silicon area per bit, a third less process steps, and high scaling potential, the technology has the capability to challenge the Floating Gate technology both on the short and long run," said Alan Niebel, chief executive officer of Web-Feet Research, Inc.
"Quad NROM is another milestone for Saifun as it expands its expertise in the NVM market," said Dr. Boaz Eitan, chief executive officer of Saifun Semiconductors. "Quad NROM is more advanced than any other flash storage technology available today. Addressing all major segments of the NVM market, Saifun Quad NROM technology will enable our partners to enter and lead new market segments. We believe our licensees will truly appreciate the new performance level of Quad NROM, and we are thrilled to be the driving force behind the evolution of NVM technology."
The simplicity of Quad NROM technology - from design through manufacturing - eliminates 40 percent of the most difficult fab processes, thereby increasing yield, quality and manufacturing throughput. These advantages are accentuated in the manufacture of multi-chip products where failure in any die means the entire device must be scrapped, allowing the manufacturing process of NROM-based products to be simpler and more efficient.
Dr. Boaz Eitan's presentation at the IEDM will be available on the Saifun website.
About Saifun Semiconductors Ltd.
Saifun is a provider of intellectual property (IP) solutions for the non-volatile memory (NVM) market. The company's innovative Saifun NROM® technology allows semiconductor manufacturers to deliver high performance, reliable products at a lower cost per megabit, with greater storage capacity, using a single process for all NVM applications. Saifun licenses its IP to semiconductor manufacturers who use this technology to develop and manufacture a variety of stand-alone and embedded NVM products. These include Flash memory for the telecommunications, consumer electronic, networking and automotive markets. Among the companies licensing Saifun NROM are Infineon Technologies, Macronix International, Sony Corporation, Spansion, and Tower Semiconductors. For more information please check out our website: www.saifun.com
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051206/ukm015.html?.v=31
Dubi
THis is interesting. What do you all think
http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=87252
Insightful :) I'm learning as well. My goal here is to bounce my thoughts off on others to see if they have merrit. I typically do about 1-2 hrs of dd on this stock a day. I read articles sometimes three times over! However, I can't find anyplace or anybody that knows the difference between NROM and NAND other than places like this. I've tried to spark interest and conversion on the IBD forum board but most over there are idiots. They chase companies like HOM and AOB all day long
I'll be looking forward to reading your post
Thanks for your reply hawaiiretireo, I don't have time to post now but will be happy to this weekend.
I'm afraid I won't have any insightful answers for you since I'm still learning, but I can generally ask good questions and put 2 + 2 together.
I appreciate your goal of spurring discussion, I'll be happy to do my part... Aiming4.
I am unbeleivabley bullish but I have many questions that I'd like to share and get answers to. The research I have done has led me to understand that QUADBIT is not so much do or die for SFUN as it is in brining SFUN to superstar levels. THis company will be above average imo with standard NROM for the next 2 to 3 years. Floating gate is flat out limited. SNDK admitts such.
Technology is moving in the direction of smalller an more memory intense. From what I've seen, there is nothing out there, or in the r and d phase, that can offer what technology is evolving into. The few things that limit quad now are power hunger issues, lifecycle questions, and write times, all of which seem relatively minor and all of which the CEO says can be worked out. AMD/Spansion seems very confident about their working prototype of quadbit. They are out there describing it as how they intend to take intel head on!
With that said. I realize that there is, not increadiable, but sizable risk here. I don;t know what standard two bit NROM potential is. I will say that if you look at the recent q3/ytd results you'll see it seems to be working.
What are your thoughts about the future and how do you reconcille your investment here?
Hawaiiretireo - you have me confused now... are you bullish or bearish on SFUN?... Aiming4.
Wow! A post that is not a link to an article! A real life comment about SFUN!!!!
2 bit market penetration has been low. This has been a hit and miss for SFUN as far as I can tell. Poor partnerships and marketing haven't helped the cause. However. ytd results are purley based on 2 bit NROM so things may be turning around. NAND is dead long-term. It offers no scalability. Devices are getting smaller and NAND doesn;t lend to shrinking. QUADBIT does however. It doubles the capacity at a reduced size. In order for NAND to to the same with the floating gate it has to build up. So Quad allows for better scalability. Not only that it reduces the cost of production by almost a third of that of NAND. REad up on the spansion deal. Although I think the contract SFUN has with the cap at 1.2 billion in sales sucks, it might lead to industry acceptance. Needless to say, NROM eps this year could be as high as 1.8 a fully dulleted share in my estimation. Even without quadbit,eps is growing exponentially. Splitting away from Infineon was the best thing they could have done. And don;t worry. Infenion will become less and less a percentage of sales as time goes on.
THis one is going to be big folks! HAve to love the support in the 28 range. Strong as a bull down there. yesterday I saw 5 20k+ blocks go off at the bid.
Let's all creat discussion here. I get tired of reading articles. Let's share our interpretations.
What is the 2 bit market penetration. Why is it not better? Other than more bits what does the quad bit solution do to allow better market acceptance? Is NAND a longterm memory or intermediate until MRAM, Poly, ect?
We're getting warmer!
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/hardware/chips/0,39020354,39173796,00.htm
Now that I think of it, spansion was close to the 1.2billion cap (as per SFUN's filing) in which they stop paying us royalties. That can;t be all that bad
Spansion is losing their ass.
Makes me a little worried considering that they are represented as on of the top three customers.
http://www.electronicsweekly.co.uk/Articles/2005/11/30/37052/Lossesmount%2ccapacityconstrainedatSpan...
Come on! Not one of you can address my questions. It's QUAD or nothing guys. Forget NROM 2 bit. We are like a biotech. One drug or were done.
Here's a great article to read if you haven;t already
http://www.electronicsweekly.co.uk/Articles/2005/06/23/35676/NROMchallengesfloatinggateNANDflash.htm
SemIndia plans $3bn chip plant
By Anita Jain
Last Update:12:00 PM ET Nov. 30, 2005
SemIndia, an Indian company run by non-resident Indians, will use technology from US-based Advanced Micro Devices to build what is poised to become India's first semiconductor manufacturing plant.
SemIndia would spend $3bn on the fabrication plant, which would use microprocessor and logic manufacturing technology, said Vinod Agarwal, chief executive.
Hector Ruiz, AMD chief executive, said his company would monitor the progress of the plant, leaving its options open to invest in the fab at a later date.
SemIndia has yet to decide where to locate the fab and is in discussions with various state governments. But it hopes to begin construction next year and chip manufacturing in two to three years.
Mr Agarwal said Indian demand for chips would grow to $160bn a year by 2016.
While India has succeeded in establishing itself as a hub for software services, poor infrastructure has hampered its attempts to become a force in the manufacture of hardware.
At $4.8bn in fiscal 2004, hardware manufacturing pales in comparison with the country's software industry output of $12.8bn, according to figures from the National Association of Software and Services Companies. The gap is widening, too, with hardware revenues growing at 25 per cent this year, and software at 29 per cent.
The manufacturing picture, however, is starting to change as global companies such as LG Electronics, Motorola and Nokia set up mobile handset factories in the country. Figures released on Wednesday showed manufacturing growing at 9.2 per cent in the second quarter.
"Only work on the design side of semiconductors is happening here," said Sudhir Swamy, associate vice-president of the technology practice at Ernst & Young. "Manufacturing will help complete the entire chain."
China and Taiwan account for the bulk of chip manufacturing. The global semiconductor industry, including design and software application development, is valued at $230bn, of which India has a $100m morsel.
Other local and global chip makers such as Intel have made noises about setting up plants in India, but Sem-India's plan is by far the most concrete.
"Somebody has to make the first move and a lot more things will fall into place," Mr Swamy said.
Dubi
Actions Semi shares rise slightly in Nasdaq debut
Wed Nov 30, 2005 12:36 PM ET
By Scott Malone
NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - American depositary shares of Actions Semiconductor Co. Ltd. (ACTS.O: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 0.5 percent from their $8 initial public offering price in the Chinese computer chip designer's Nasdaq debut on Wednesday.
The shares were up 4 cents at $8.04.
Actions, which is based in China's Guangzhou province, in early November cut the size of the IPO from an earlier goal of 13 million ADS to 9 million, and the price to $8 from an earlier goal of $9.50 to $11.50 each.
The company had tried to price the IPO on Nov. 21, but was unable to do so.
In a telephone interview, Actions Chief Executive Nan Yeh attributed the delay in the offering to the complexity of explaining the operations of his company, which designs chips used in digital music players.
"The shareholder right now is more powerful than in the past and we spent some time to educate them," he said. "They took a close look at our case and a close look at our business model."
Chinese semiconductor designers have met with mixed reception on the Nasdaq in recent weeks.
China's Vimicro International Corp. (VIMC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) in mid-November priced its shares at $10, and was trading at $8.55 on Nasdaq on Wednesday.
In contrast, shares of Israeli chip designer Saifun Semiconductors Ltd. (SFUN.O: Quote, Profile, Research) have gained 23.9 percent from their Nov. 9 debut at $23.50, and were trading at $29.11 on Nasdaq.
Actions' offering was worth $72 million, with the company selling 6 million and the balance of 3 million coming from existing shareholders.
It plans to use the proceeds of the offering to develop new chips that could also play video or drive video game machines, according to David Lee, the company's chief financial officer.
The lead underwriter on the offering was Credit Suisse First Boston, a unit of Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) .
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh47198_2005-11-30_17-36-59_n30...
Dubi
Debate Between NAND and HDD for Portable Consumer Electronics Will Heat Up, IDC Believes
11/30/2005 7:00:01 AM
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., Nov 30, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- The storage debate between NAND flash memory and hard disk drives (HDDs) for the portable consumer electronics market will continue and likely increase with price disparity decreasing over the next four years, IDC believes. NAND memory average selling price is expected to decrease at a 43% compound annual growth rate from 2004 to 2009. However, price per GB is not the sole decision criteria. Factors such as total capacity requirements, form-factor, power consumption, weight, durability, data rates, as well as strategic OEM and storage supplier alliances, weigh heavily into storage technology criterion.
"We do not expect a "winner takes all" outcome by 2008 as both storage technologies will advance through technology transitions to provide higher capacity products and focus on their respective strengths," said John Rydning, research manager with IDC's Storage Mechanisms: Disk Program.
"Instead of viewing each storage technology as a threat, flash and HDD vendors should approach this development as an opportunity to form alliances to broaden and extend their portfolio," added Celeste Crystal, senior analyst, Semiconductors research at IDC.
IDC's Insight, A Hard Choice That Won't be Made in a Flash: HDD Versus NAND, (IDC #34373), provides an analysis of two storage technologies (NAND and HDD) vying for similar embedded storage opportunities in portable digital devices. The focus is on technology advancements, price parity, and the competitive landscape, as well as trends in leading application markets. This Insight forecasts price per GB for both NAND flash memory, and 1.0-in and smaller HDD, and explores the likely impact that price and other attributes will have on the choice of each embedded storage technology in portable digital devices through 2009.
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About IDC
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Dubi
note spansion's mirrorbit is based on NROM--> Saifun.
Flash memory, the sort that you find in digital cameras, cell phones, and PDAs, has been a hot, growing segment of the overall memory market. Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPod devices have been a particular source for demand for flash memory, consuming as much as 40% of Samsung's total flash output.
Yet not all flash memory is made alike. NAND flash is a low-cost memory option permitting larger amounts of storage, as well as faster write and erase times, which explains why Apple prefers it for its devices. NOR memory, on the other hand, reliably stores small amounts of executable code that can be accessed quickly and is used in mobile phones and PDAs.
Until recently, NOR was the dominant form of flash memory, accounting for more than 58% of sales in 2004, according to industry research group iSuppli. For the first six months of 2005, however, NAND flash overtook NOR and accounted for nearly 54% of flash memory sales. NAND is expected to grow 40% in 2005 and then at a compounded rate of 13% each year until 2009. Meanwhile NOR sales are anticipated to decline by 16% this year and grow at a compound rate of 4% annually.
In its share registration forms filed with the SEC, Spansion reported that it lost $128 million in 2003, $19 million in 2004, and $257 million through the first nine months of 2005. In the latest filing, it did not disclose the fourth-quarter loss that it anticipates, noting only that it cannot operate at full capacity because of testing equipment constraints it was seeking to address. Further, because of the glut of flash chips, Spansion has witnessed a 3% drop in the average selling price for its memory.
Spansion's not alone in trying to exploit the need for flash memory. Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) is joining with Micron (NYSE: MU) to form a joint venture that will provide flash memory for various consumer products, while chip maker Infineon (NYSE: IFX) is thinking about spinning off its memory unit next year. Flash memory has also been a boon to FormFactor (Nasdaq: FORM), a small-cap memory chip-testing company that was recommended in the pages of Motley Fool Hidden Gems last year. Flash represents the second-largest but fastest-growing segment of its business, behind dynamic random access memory. As FormFactor's products can test both NAND and NOR flash, it wins regardless of which architecture comes out on top.
Spansion is not so lucky and will have to contend with more competition, greater supply, and lower prices. It's no flash in the pan, to be sure, but with industry conditions as they are, one wonders how long it will be before it actually comes to market.
http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2005/mft05112905.htm?logvisit=y&source=estmarhln001999&npu=y
Dubi
Chip Sales Forecast is Bright
Dan Nystedt, IDG News Service
Mon Nov 28, 8:00 AM ET
The global semiconductor industry is set to enjoy three years of stable sales growth to reach $309 billion by the end of 2008, the Semiconductor Industry Association says.
The group, a U.S.-based industry association for chip makers, also revised up its 2005 sales forecast to 6.8 percent year-on-year sales growth to $227.6 billion, up from an earlier forecast calling for just 6 percent growth this year. Last year, chip sales reached a record high $213 billion.
Big Growth: Gadgets
The bullish forecasts indicate the group sees steady technology industry growth in coming years, since semiconductors power the world's digital devices. Consumer products such as MP3 players, multipurpose mobile phones and digital entertainment devices for the home will remain the major growth drivers for chip sales over the next few years, but information technology equipment will continue to be the largest end market, the SIA said.
The group said major end markets such as PCs will likely grow by 10 percent next year, with mobile phone sales increasing 13 percent. But consumer devices such as digital televisions and MP3 players will outpace older products, with forecast growth of 52 percent in each category, according to the SIA.
The Asia-Pacific region will lead chip industry sales growth in coming years, with 16.4 percent year-on-year growth to $103.3 billion this year followed by 11.4 percent growth to $115.1 billion next year and $150.4 billion in 2008, the SIA predicted.
Japan will be the biggest laggard this year, with a projected 2.6 percent drop in chip sales to $44.6 billion, followed by Europe, with a slow 0.1 percent increase in chip sales to $39.5 billion, according to SIA figures. The group forecast Japan will bounce back next year with 5.2 percent growth, while Europe will gain 4.9 percent.
Most Popular Chips
Digital signal processors, or DSPs, which are used in communications devices, are projected to post the sharpest growth among chip segments next year due to strong cell phone sales, the transition to third generation (3G) mobile pones and new uses for DSP chips in consumer products like high-definition camcorders, according to the SIA report. The group forecasts DSP sales will rise 17.2 percent to $9.1 billion next year, after remaining flat this year.
Flash memory will also remain a hot item next year led by strong growth in NAND flash, which is used mainly for its storage capacity in MP3 players, digital cameras, and other consumer electronics devices. The other main kind of flash, the NOR used to access and run software in mobile phones, is growing more slowly, according to the SIA. Next year, flash memory sales will rise 15.9 percent to $21 billion, after a strong 2005 when flash grew 16.1 percent, the SIA said. NAND sales will grow 23.5 percent next year, followed NOR's slower 6.1 percent increase.
DRAM memory chips will suffer the most next year, with a drop of 10.1 percent in global sales to $23 billion, after a 4.8 percent decline this year to $25.6 billion, according to the SIA.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/20051128/tc_pcworld/123694;_ylt=AoXGq2sSKhxdQI3.sS6ow4Cs0NUE;_ylu=X3...
Dubi
Are we sure of SFUN?
I ask this becasue the 4 bit quad has been around for quite a while now (read the attached)http://www.my-esm.com/story/OEG20020802S0046. I have read several articles that are dated indicating how this technology is going to "revoultionize" the industry.
My question to all of you is:
1) Why hasn't this already occured?
2) What is going to change now that will force industry to adopt technology that didn;t exsist in 02?
3) Why is Intel and Micron going to spend several billion $ on NAND?
4) If Quad NROM was a legitamate threat, wouldn't intel or micron partner with SFUN?
All in all, the ipo was a success and is holding very well at 30. The market is a beleiver at this point but I'm not sure why
why thank you very much...
Bill
Israel's Saifun chips away at the flash memory market
By Allison Kaplan Sommer November 27, 2005
According to Dr. Boaz Eitan, founder and CEO of Nasdaq's latest rising star, Israeli flash memory chip developer Saifun, even in the tightest prisons, people escape once in a while.
He ought to know. During his military service as a pilot for the Israel Defense Forces, he was shot down over Syria in 1970 and held for three years as a prisoner of war in Damascus. Though he was released by diplomatic means, this concept of escape has remained with him throughout his working career.
As he likes to tell Saifun's investors, one of the main problems of most flash memory chips used in mobile devices today, are that electrons inevitably escape, causing memory to deteriorate over time.
This is extremely significant, as consumers need to know that the information they hold on their laptops, PDAs, mobile phones, MP3 players, or iPods are safe at all times, even when the power is off or the batteries unexpectedly run down.
According to Dr. Ed Mlavsky, a high tech venture capitalist, and chairman and founding partner of Gemini Israel Funds, and one of the earliest investors in Saifun, the company's unique flash technology called NROM (nitrate-read-only memory) provides a better method of imprisoning electrons.
NROM has helped transform Saifun into one of the hottest companies on Nasdaq today. While the Israeli venture capital industry has long had it on its radar screen, it's only been in the last nine months after it became clear that the company was headed to the US stock market that investors and the financial press have also been buzzing with anticipation.
The buzz was validated with Saifun's subsequent performance on the NASDAQ, and its company valuation, considered incredibly high for such a young and relatively small company. The company's stock jumped more than 50 percent on its first day of trading on Nov. 10, raising $188 million and putting its market capitalization at $675 million. On Nov. 17, that faith was justified, when the company announced quarterly revenue of $17.9 million, representing a $10.8 million third quarter profit.
Eitan founded Saifun in 1997, naming it after a flower - Saifun is the Hebrew name for gladiola. Due to the ever-increasing demand for portable gadgets, the market for flash memory is estimated in the tens of billions of dollars and grabbing even a small fraction of that market is hugely profitable.
Saifun deals in know how - selling its knowledge and carefully protected patents to semiconductor manufacturers who are participating in the intensely competitive, cut-throat race to manufacture the best, smallest and densest flash solution. Via its NROM technology, the company's initial breakthrough was being able to place two bits in a single memory cell as opposed to the traditional one bit - doubling the storage capacity of each memory cell, and is now working a four bit solution - quadrupling it.
Saifun's technology also offers semiconductor companies cost savings, since NROM-based chips can be manufactured in fewer steps than traditional flash devices and on their existing wafer fabrication equipment. The company then licenses its solutions to semiconductor manufacturers who use them to develop and manufacture flash memory for the telecommunications, consumer electronic, networking and automotive markets, paying them royalties in exchange.
The company also strengthens its relationships with licensees by offering design and development services for next-generation products. Market penetration of Saifun NROM technology in 2005 is expected to reach over $1 billion through its integration in products produced by some of the world?s largest manufacturers, including Spansion, Infineon Technologies, Macronix International, Sony Corporation and Tower Semiconductor.
Eitan began his career as a physicist at Intel in the early 1980s and then held various senior level positions at WaferScale Integration, a US leader in programmable system devices. After a five-year stint as the manager of WaferScale's Israeli design center, Eitan founded Saifun in 1997 and has since served as the company's chairman and CEO. All told, he has been named on more than 75 US patents, with the company having more than 100 US patents issued and pending.
Investor Mlavsky takes credit for returning Eitan to Israel, when, like other brilliant young Israeli scientists and engineers, he had been seeking his fortune in Silicon Valley.
At the time, Mlavsky was executive director of the Israel-US Binational Industrial Research and Development Foundation - the organization that generates mutually beneficial cooperation between the private sectors of the US and Israeli high tech industries, providing matchmaking services between US and Israeli companies, and funding joint project development and product commercialization costs.
He met Eitan when he was in California trying to entice WaferScale Integration into a joint venture with an Israeli company.
"Like many US companies at the time, they argued that there was no appropriate partner in Israel - so I suggested that they create a partner - set up a subsidiary in Israel and do a joint project. So they did it and their key guy was Boaz. While they were reluctant to let him go, they sent him to set up the Israeli subsidiary as long as he committed to stay with the company for a certain number of years. He fulfilled his commitment - and then he started Saifun," Mlavsky told ISRAEL21c.
By then, Mlavsky had moved into the world of venture capital and Gemini was one of the earliest investors in Saifun.
When Eitan showed him the pictures of what would be the first flash memory device that had twice as many memory bits as existing devices, he recalls "I had no doubts that Boaz was a winner."
Why is the technique of preserving memory important and the technology so valuable?
"These memories are in your cell phone, answering machine, in your Blackberry, they are in any portable electronic device has to have a non volatile memory because it may run out of battery. The market is growing by leaps and bounds. So when he showed us a way to put more memory per unit volume at a lower cost, it was pretty convincing that he was going somewhere."
The NASDAQ showing proves that many others have made the same estimation. Eitan is, however, holding on to a sizeable portion of the company - he will maintain a 40% stake in Saifun post-IPO.
US investors had been skeptical in the beginning, but Eitan has persuasive powers and really believes in his technology, but knows how to make others believers.
"He makes Billy Graham look like a piker," said Mlavsky.
Early in the company's history, Mlavsky, recalls, he asked Eitan what he viewed as the biggest threat to Saifun's future success and that Eitan accurately predicted the challenge of protecting their patents.
"Sure enough, they had a big patent battle with AMD Fujitsu, you have to walk in with million from royalties and enough nerve to go up against the big guys. He knew it all along, when he found he was being infringed, he went after them big time and he won."
He compares Saifun's knowledge-licensing model to the Dolby company in audio technology - it is a company which develops new products but doesn't produce them themselves. A similar model is common in pharmaceutical start-ups - he notes - those that develop breakthrough drugs, then license them to manufacturers who usher them through final clinical trials and bring them to market.
It is a great model for profits, Mlavsky said. "The amount of royalty money that changes hands is zillions of dollars."
None of it would happen, however, if it weren't for Eitan's successful management style, which Mlavsky says is quirky, but effective. "You know the song 'I did it my way'? I think the song was written for him.
"He really is a phenomenon. He puts his own unique stamp on everything. When employees or visitors come to the Saifun offices, they aren't allowed to carry their cell phones, even switched off - he doesn't allow them on the premises: he considers them a distraction. It took him a while to offer company cars - and when he did, he got himself the exact same car as everyone else."
Another original move by Eitan is an unusually generous incentive plan he has offered his employees.
According to the financial daily The Marker, Eitan recently informed his staff that anyone who had worked there for more than two years would receive a tax free loan from the company of approximately $100,000.
The employees would only have to pay back the loan when the company is issued or sold, when they can sell their Saifun stock options for cash.
If there are no profits from selling their options, they don't have to return the loan.
"Why does Saifun feel a need to do this? The plan is costing it $6 million it didn't have to spend. It seems utterly bizarre in today's hi gh tech world of trimming, slimming and eliminating," wrote columnist Guy Rolnick.
The reasoning behind it is to help employees keep the faith in their companies during the long wait it often takes for the paper value of options to translate into hard cash.
Rolnick's conclusion: "Allocating $6 million cash to its workers reminds us all that among the hundreds of companies likely to go broke this year, there are a few Saifuns - companies with basic technology, conservative management, and faith in their future."
http://www.israel21c.org/bin/en.jsp?enDispWho=Articles%5El1155&enPage=BlankPage&enDisplay=vi....
Dubi
Great analysis of SFUN
http://www.tradingipos.com/blog/index.php?id=81
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