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U.S. Economic Data Summary
• Core PCE (July): +0.2%, inflation steady. (Neutral) (Low)
• Core Inflation Rate (July): +0.2%, stable. (Neutral) (Low)
• Inflation YoY (July): +2.9%, moderating. (Bull) (Low)
• PPI (July): +0.1%, minor inflation pressure. (Neutral) (Low)
• Initial Jobless Claims (Sept) : 219K, inflationary pressures may persist. (Bear) (Med)
• Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug): +142K, slower job growth. (Bear) (Med)
• Unemployment Rate (Aug): 4.2%, stable labor market. (Neutral) (Low)
• NY Empire Index: -4.7, manufacturing contraction. (Bear) (High)
• Philly Fed Index: -7.0, economic softness. (Bear) (High)
• Industrial Production (July): -0.6%, manufacturing weakness. (Bear) (High)
• ISM PMI (Aug): 47.2, contraction. (Bear) (High)
• NAHB Housing Index: 41, worsening conditions. (Neutral) (Med)
• Building Permits (Aug): 1.475M, improving future construction. (Bull) (Med)
• Personal Income (July): +0.3%, higher earnings. (Bull) (Low)
• Personal Spending (July): +0.5%, strong demand. (Bull) (Low)
• Retail Sales (July): +1%, strong consumer activity. (Bull) (Med)
• Retail Sales (Aug): +0.1%, below expectations, weak consumer spending. (Bear) (Med)
• Durable Goods (July): +9.9%, strong demand. (Bull) (High)
• Fed Interest Rate Decision (Sep): 5.5%, holding, but risks remain. (Neutral) (High)
• Deflation Risks: Lower demand = reduced earnings, higher debt. (Bear) (Med)
• Yen Carry Trade: Weakens USD, bullish for stocks. (Bull) (Med)
• AI Job Cuts: Unemployment could hit market sentiment. (Bear) (Med)
• Stronger Dollar: Higher borrowing costs, hurting stocks. (Bear) (High)
• TSP Accounts: High risk at market peaks, vulnerable to downturns. (Bear) (High)
• All-Time Highs: Markets priced in data, susceptible to shocks. (Bear) (High)
• Election Year: Increased volatility likely due to political uncertainty. (Bear) (High)
• Global Risks: Potential unexpected world events could shift markets. (Bear) (High)
Scoring Method:
• Low Impact = 1 point
• Medium Impact = 2 points
• High Impact = 3 points
Final Score:
• Bullish Total: 12 points
• Bearish Total: 37 points
• Neutral Total: 9 points
Good point
Rate of inflation
Like going from 0%-5% is 500% or 5 fold. Say a house goes for $300k and during the same time frame it cost $500k now to build the same one.
Silver and copper/alum want to inflate like a mother today lol. Watching NBR* right now. Interesting chart.
Good luck all
Bitcoin and others. BTC has some catch-up to highs. Mining cost per bit is 72k,
Nations, country's and governments buying. 7 billion people, 340,000,000 companies
3,600 billionaires, 58,000,000 millionaires, banks, endowments, trusts, tons of unions, life insurance and pention funds all buying. With 12 trillion entering.
When did inflation bottom?
with stocks at record highs, a big chunk of that money goes to taxes
even if the market wants 6000 on SP 500, then what?
market is already expensive at 5700, the risk is to the downside, the tough sledding is now to the upside, there is zero room for errors or misses, just ask FDX
inflation bottomed, therefore, the amount of and speed of rate cuts will be greatly diminished
market trading very similar to last spike in 2008 before all hell broke lose, however, i dont see another 2007-2008 housing crash, but i do see an actual recession coming, 10-15% correction in the stock market would be very healthy from current levels
as for the market rebound, um, CAT is responsible for 100 DOW points
CRM DOW and a few others masking things
CAT wont and cant go up $15 to $17 every day from here
the MATH says its time to start selling rallies
IT DOES MATTER WHO WINS, THERE ARE BOTH THA SAME IN REALITY.
THE FED RUNS THE SHOW AND THE BANKS ARE THE FED. THEY ARE LEVERAGED TO THE HILL
AND SIMPLY PUT THEY WILL NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BREAK. THEY WILL PRINT AND KEEP
PRINTING TO PROP UP THE MARKET AND KEEP ON KIKKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD.
ALL THAT PRINTING WILL END UP PROPPING THE STOCK MARKET. THAT'S THE GAME AND THERE IS
NO OTHER GAME.
DID YOU WATCH THIS MARKET COME BACK FROM THE EARLIER SELL.
THIS MARKET WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO CORRECT.
Problem is where does big money go if not to Stock Market?
Certainly not to bond market
Trump Tax cuts will expire and if Kamal Harris wins the election, i expect a big drop in stock prices
not to mention a lot more geopolitical risk within 3-6 months after the election
it wont be hard for smart money to sell stocks at record highs
BARRONS talking about DOW 50,000, that's definitely a SELL SIGNAL if i ever saw one
CUTS ARE SIMPLY NOISE !! IT IS THE FED'S POLICY TO KEEP THIS MARKET UP FOR MANY
REASONS. CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM !!! THEY CANN'T AFFORD A 20 OR 30% DROP IN THIS MARKET.
THAT WILL WEAKEN THE WHOLE HIGLY LEVERAGED FINACIAL MARKET AND THE TRILLIONS
IN DERIVATIVES THAT NOBODY TALKS ABOUT.
there will be only one more cut in 2024 at most and it wont be 50
Key Points
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she thought her colleagues should have taken a more measured approach to last week’s half percentage point interest rate reduction.
The jumbo cut “could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price-stability mandate,” she said in remarks to a bankers’ group in Kentucky.
a ton of inflation is hiding in the US STOCK MARKET
cutting rates at ATH in the stock market is very bad for inflation going forward
valuations are peaking and the stock market has already priced in 200 bips worth of cuts through 2025
rates are never going under 3% again
you'll see
ALL IN.....HAVE NO FEAR.....THE FED IS HERE AND THE PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM IS ALWAYS
READY TO RESCUE THE MARKET. THE FED SIMPLY WILL NOT ALLOW THIS MARKET TO GO DOWN !!!
AND YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK
I was more poking fun at the choice of words.
Ending the endless.
Did you see the consumer confidence number? Inflation and employment are mandates for the fed. CPI was down almost 31% yoy at the end of August 2024. Fed royalty has come out in numbers saying more cuts on the way. FOMC median Dots is at 3.375 at the end of 2025 and 4.375 at the end of 2024. Target is 5.0 today which is about average (4.94) going back to the 70's. Lots of wiggle room.
U-3 unemployment rate was 4.2 at the end of August up from 3.7 at the beginning of the year. If the revision is anything like last month, who knows?
There's double digit trillions buying and ready to buy more. China is starting to unleash a huge amount of funds. China is going to run up, and us is going to play catch up. Despite the ban, they have 55% mining hashrate. Think the US should start chomping on that, support run, and help to become #1.
Higher inflation I agree with pool. Stagflation is the mortal enemy of the federal reserve, can’t print or QE or whatever this dilution is….
Hyperinflation. What's gonna happen to prices when China unleashes their massive stimulus. Prices are already going back up.
STAGFLATION is coming
oil rising in september is bad for the Fed's inflation goals
if OIL has bottomed and many other commodities priced in US dollars are rising,
then rate cuts are already close to being over
CAT up $16 distorting the DOW
HD up $5
always pay attention to outsized moves
this rally is about to die
WAR in middle east is inflationary
the endless pump will end one day and people will have no clue that it was the top
Spy feels tired to me. Perhaps down on Tuesday?
~edit bought 9/25 $578c @.04c
Quick checking in thank you for all you do and you posts and sharing.
SPX 5 min Wedge---B/O R1 5720-----Break down Fib at 5703 ? Vix Pivot at 15.87 still Boss !!
Wagged sum 570C .22 ? Lets see! Gotta do in & Out today !
Charts: SPX 15, 30 & 60 min on Sell ?? ( longer term pressure )
Vix 2 min Apex will decide ??----Play it the same as the Vix Flipper--same set up !---tight stop---lower volitility !---not as good as Friday !!
Vix Pivot 15.87!---Line in da sand for today !!
Inside Day! ( So Far) ---Vix 2 min Falling Triangle !------Watch U CCI divergence on 2 min Vix---For Triangle B/Down of B/O----Could go either way !!
Vix 2 min Fallng Triangle ---Base Pivot at 15.87 !
market toppy/fully valued here
risk is now to the downside
Pivot Calcs: SPX Pivot--5697----R1--5720----R2--5738-----S1--5679----S2--5656-----SPY Pivot --567----R1--569----R2--571-----S1--566----S2--563 !
Closed 569P 1.06 ! Vix Flipper!----Take it !! Tks Boys !! Close Double !!
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