Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
/ES 3273.75 = Friday's July 31 high -- achieved in the early Globex session following the earnings reports by AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL and others on Thursday evening
3284.50 = the level which must be surpassed on a lasting basis to depart the multi-week horizontal trading range
6-year view of the AAPL daily chart with 126,2 BB and 63,2 BB showing the unusual distance above the UBB's -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&i=p37966667383&a=624971727&r=1596292148276
AAPL daily chart shows some degree of caution is merited based on distance above the UBB at Friday's close -
* especially the 63,2 UBB shown at the bottom of this chart
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p10462020406&a=624971727&r=1596289263219
$OEX 1514.13 = daily 21,2 upper Bollinger Band value at Friday's close
vs.
1514.44 the July high for $OEX and 1522.26 multi-month high
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX%3A%24OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p24733875804&a=523770661&r=1596145655521
329.03 = SPY UBB value vs. 327.23 multi-month high achieved in July
** $SPX and $OEX printed negative AD values on Friday which is Neg D vs. the green price closes ... $INDU AD was also negative
SPY 327.33 = the high printed today July 21 in pre-market trading
We have reliable breadth data going back to 1962.
In all that time, there have been 5 other days when the S&P 500 was up 0.75% or more and
yet there were more decliners than advancers (issues and volume) on the NYSE.
All but one of those dates were in 2000 and 2008.
@sentimentrader
===================
NYSE --- Latest Close --- Previous Close --- Week Ago
Issues traded 3,069 3,056 3,065
Advances 1,277 1,629 1,093
Declines 1,693 1,336 1,899
Unchanged 99 91 73
/ES 3196.57 = Volume Point of Control looking back 180 trading days
* bullish above & bearish below
/ES 3188.67 = Weekly Pivot for week ending July 24
* bullish above & bearish below
/ES 3213.75 = /ES value at the time of today's cash market open
===================
SPY key vigilance price levels based on daily closes in recent days/months -
SPY 312.05 - bearish only if a lasting hold below 312.05 occurs, buy the dips bullish scenario was recently proven at the 312.00 intraday low and later declines have not even come close to SPY 312.05
SPY 317.05 - bearish below
SPY 318.45 - bearish below, only bullish if a hold above 318.45 level
SPY 321.78 - potentially bearish if future daily closes remain below, only bullish if a hold above 321.78 occurs lasting multiple days
SPY 324.32 July 20 closing price - bearish only if future daily closes are below, bullish if above
321.78 prior daily close high is highlighted in chart #1 -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p12095042636&a=592217701&r=1595185863319
SPY daily closes chart within the context of smoothed $NYAD -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p16612807292&a=286429918&r=1586300495239
* note the smoothed SPY using three moving averages at the bottom of the chart ... a simple trend identification to avoid bull traps and bear traps during intraday price action, now and in the future
/ES 3217.88 = Volume Point of Control looking back 5 trading days
* bullish above & bearish below
/ES 3196.57 = Volume Point of Control looking back 180 trading days
* bullish above & bearish below
/ES 3188.67 = Weekly Pivot for week ending July 24
* bullish above & bearish below
daily # of new price highs and new price lows for both the S&P 500 index & for the NYSE Composite index are shown on this single chart
* note the 10-day moving average of the High-Low differential for the S&P 500 is now at plus 28.60, which represents a multi-month high on Friday July 17 ... bulls want this moving average to advance to higher levels
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p12095042636&a=592217701&r=1595186335606
41 new price highs for the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 index is the highest number seen
in the March through July 17, 2020 time period
* bulls want to see this # eventually rise
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21NEWHISPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&i=p08589825396&a=661102735&r=1595121752398
daily cumulative Net new highs minus new lows remains in a rising trend for multiple weeks for four indices, so this is a bullish set of US equity market internals until a downside reversal by these internals actually occurs -
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&i=p09862369141&a=588693282&r=1579493015981
SPY daily closes chart within the context of smoothed $NYAD -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p16612807292&a=286429918&r=1586300495239
/ES 3202.00 = the daily 21,2 upper Bollinger Band value at Tuesday's July 14th cash market close
/ES 3160.88 = 10-day Volume Point of Control - an important potential bull/bear pivot value .... bullish while above and bearish only while below
$NYA, $SPX and $WTIC monthly price bars in a single chart -
* $NYA price action has been constructive for a potential ongoing bullish US equity market for several weeks now
selected markers and indicators are on this chart to provide vigilance monitoring for any future impending character changes
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYA&p=M&st=2005-01-01&i=p81451235766&a=167865155&r=1594771556559
$NYA 12420 = the 10-month SMA now above the current July 2020 price action
SPY 311.49 = the 5-week SMA, which has not been violated by intraday price action this week so far ... and last week
SPY daily closes chart with S&P 500 internals -
* vigilance watch SPY horizontals at:
299.29
291.93
280.37
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p10524699971&a=581521323&r=1593359472151
$SPX 2962.73 = 50-day EMA which bulls must defend during
future declines
$SPX 2961.46 = 200-day EMA
$SPX 2957.64 = 55-day EMA
$SPX 2944.99 = 100-day SMA
$SPX 3038.54 = 21-day SMA, which bears must defend during future bounces from below
$SPX 3013.88 = 200-day SMA
value as of Friday's close June 12
SPY 299.51 = 60-minute 200-period SMA
SPY 299.01 = 200-day SMA
SPY 296.38 = 10-week EMA which bulls must defend
SPY 293.89 = 200-day EMA
SPY 293.58 = 21-week SMA
SPY 293.31 = 100-day SMA
SPY 291.92 = 20-week SMA
S&P Composite 1500 index daily Advance-Decline percentage values in histogram format --
the zero line equals the bull/bear pivot for the Advance-Decline smoothed with the 3-day SMA & 13-day EMA, and the current chart condition
as of Friday June 12 displays a mixed message since:
the 3-day is far below the zero line while the 13-day is slightly above the zero line on Friday's bounce
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SUPADP&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&i=p88375643964&a=625302380&r=1592095587767
plus 2.79 = current value of the 13-day EMA for the Advance-Decline as of June 12
minus 34.16 = 3-day SMA value
* at its recent low, the 3-day SMA value printed a negative value worse than any seen since late 2018,
highlighting the speed and fierce quality of last week's decline by both price action and Advance-Decline internals
=============
689.77 = 21-day SMA, which bears must hold as Resistance
674.91 = S&P Composite 1500 index 233-day EMA value must be defended by bulls during future declines
669.35 = 100-day SMA
657.81 = 50-day SMA
/ES futures 3209.67 = the bull/bear pivot value when
using 180 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted after the market close on Tuesday June 9
bulls need a lasting hold above the 3209.67 level
/ES futures 3198.88 = the bull/bear pivot value when
using 5 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted after the market close on Tuesday June 9
bulls need a lasting hold above the 3198.88 level
***************
/ES 3231.00 = June 9 high achieved in the very early a.m. Globex
3231.25 = June 8 high in day session near the cash market close --
the multi-month high, so far
/ES 3242.00 = daily 21,2 UBB near the time of the cash market open today Tuesday June 9
/ES 3188.75 = the must hold level for the bullish case to have
Staying Power, and to justify buy the dip actions or NOT
... bears are weak unless this level is violated on a lasting basis for 37 consecutive trading hours, at least
3167.50 = potential must hold level #2 for the bullish case
3090's is a magnet for any impulsive decline
/ES 3030's must hold for the bulls -- very long term
***************
$OEX 5-minute chart with updated horizontal price lows & price highs since March 2020 marked with horizontal lines
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&i=p82000218047&a=715238757&r=1590593509169
Perma Link for paying SC subscribers -
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24OEX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&id=p24800325031&a=715238757
$OEX daily with McSum and McO -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p44811130091&a=340963636&r=1590502633313
** $OEX 1366.55 horizontal level
marking the early December 2019 intraday
price low must be defended by bulls
during future declines
** watch the $OEX A-D line as a priority - bulls must see it advance **
Percentage of the 100 stocks in the $OEX with
PMO's above their zero line -
https://c.stockcharts.com/pnf/chart?c=%21PMOAZOEX,PFTADBNRBO[PA!B15][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&r=7550&pnf=y
RSP daily
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=RSP&p=D&b=5&g=1&i=p77530317141
SPY daily
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=1&i=p77530317141
** Friday May 22 represents day #5 SPY attempts to hold the horizontal breakout above the 294.88 April high ...
and this breakout first took place on Monday **
simple SPY daily with selected indicators -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p47249717189&a=183961259&r=1458750742284
$SPX daily closes chart with the April daily close high
marked as the horizontal breakout value -
* bulls need $SPX price action to hold above
the declining 100-day SMA for multiple weeks *
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p54623771630&a=581747427&r=1588534487918
the big six names in the S&P 500 and the S&P 100 indices -
* AMZN and FB printed new record price highs the week ending
May 22
the daily closes chart below displays the percentage performance
with splits and dividends adjusted in the look-back price history
for the big six most influential symbols within the
$SPX and $OEX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AAPL&p=D&st=2018-01-01&i=p41598448964&a=485657843&r=1590207966075
80% 97% 91% = $OEX internals on Tuesday June 9
* advancing price participation is diminishing since Monday's close
was -----
92% 97% 93% equals June 8th value for the three
$OEX internals displayed on this daily chart,
for which future daily vigilance is prudent -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p55670041540&a=340963852&r=1583205795342
* the three $OEX internals reside at their customary
upper levels, and bulls need them to remain
within or above the broad 75 to 90% range,
and
the higher level the better for the bullish case
92% 97% 93% equals June 8th value for the three
$OEX internals displayed on this daily chart,
for which future daily vigilance is prudent -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p55670041540&a=340963852&r=1583205795342
* the three $OEX internals reside at their customary
upper levels, and bulls need them to remain
within or above the broad 75 to 90% range,
and
the higher level the better for the bullish case
related chart #2 displays the 21-day smoothing of the
McClellan Oscillator for the $SPX and $OEX -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21MCOSIRSPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p48438461686&a=704780691&r=1591733103805
* the bullish case wants to see the 21-day moving average
for the McO's continue to advance
related chart set, which reflects
additional US equity market impacts of the details
itemized above, as the charts actually develop in
the future --
cumulative net Advance-Decline lines in histogram format for:
$SPX
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21ADLINESPX&p=D&st=2019-10-31&i=p09170486617&a=607135436&r=1586705560320
$NDX
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21ADLINENDX&p=D&st=2019-10-31&i=p79188051400&a=607135438&r=1586705626223
NYSE "common stocks only" version
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21ADLINENYC&p=D&st=2019-10-31&i=p65132280718&a=607135437&r=1586705703010
$INDU
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%21ADLINEDOW&p=D&st=2019-10-31&i=p78916418505&a=607135439&r=1586705937527
charts above display cumulative Advance-Decline breadth lines
which are the cumulative total of daily net Advance-Decline values
Common Stock Only indicators for the NYSE are calculated using only the # of stocks
for operating companies within the NYSE Composite Index (funds are excluded)
CSO indicators often present a more accurate internal picture for the NYSE Composite Index
The NYSE All Issues indicators are calculated using all issues traded in the NYSE Composite Index
McClellan Oscillator
The McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 19-EMA & 39-EMA of daily advances minus declines.
It reflects the short-term strength and direction of market liquidity.
A longer-term view is provided by the McClellan Summation Index, which is the cumulative total of the daily McClellan Oscillator values.
These indicators move within a trading range and often identify the overbought/oversold condition of the market
McClellan Summation Index
( McSum = McClellan Summation Index )
the dominant rule is: price will eventually follow the direction of the McSum, except for brief periods of price divergence
The McSum is neutral at the zero line,
bullish while above,
and confirmed bearish while below zero
* the distance down or up to the McSum zero line currently represents
one objective measure of the minimum movement that is possible
Confirmed sell signals are a lasting decline below the McSum zero line,
though price action has usually declined by a large amount by the time
zero is reached from the McSum peak above.
Large distances between the McSum daily chart values represent acceleration events in the A-D breadth decline or advance,
and the follow-on price impact has a high correlation with the McSum's direction, and usually has several days staying power
AAPL weekly PermaLink for SC subscribers -
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&yr=2&mn=5&dy=20&id=p48022476939&a=521483509
* SPY and $SPX and $OEX bulls want to see the
AAPL to SPY ratio remain above its
weekly 15,2 Bollinger Band midline
viewing Link -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AAPL&p=W&yr=2&mn=5&dy=20&i=p50535437430&a=521483509&r=1591628384990
with no S in https -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AAPL&p=W&yr=2&mn=5&dy=20&i=p50535437430&a=521483509&r=1591628384990
$SPXEW late January 2020 intraday low =
$4586.42 which remains above the June price action
EW daily -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPXEW&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p55477172861&a=624740202&r=1590609110768
$OEX late January low = 1441.66
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p19081465758&a=589367470&r=1586708199509
** two of the three daily $OEX internals have now
achieved or surpassed their customary upper levels -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p55670041540&a=340963852&r=1583205795342
$SPX late January 2020 low = 3214.68 -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p18430429275&a=589367469&r=1588775103502
** two of the three daily $SPX internals have reached or surpassed their
customary upper levels -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&i=p48145416080&a=747130146&r=1588437201539
$SPSUPX 735.20 = late January low -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPSUPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p23434862335&a=691610419&r=1588348593654
** the cumulative net Advance-Decline lines for six indices
reside at or above their daily 50,2 upper Bollinger Band -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=!ADLINESPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p23825448009&a=705248095&r=1588168360271
** cumulative $NYAD at new all-time record high as of
the Friday June 5, 2020 close -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&i=p22864139385&a=306420470&r=1589891229193
$NYA weekly PnF chart displays $13050 as one key
price level the bulls must surpass in the coming weeks/months -
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24NYA,PRTDWDNRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20][J,Y]
$NYA is only now attempting to hold above its
200-day simple moving average -
https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=!MCOSIRNYC&p=D&st=2015-04-01&i=p05236667427&a=625434407&r=1575641948680
SPY daily chart with 15,2 Bollinger Bands -
* $SPX total volume on Friday June 5, 2020
prints the highest level since
March
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p42622289868&a=702407785&r=1591579215382
SPY 303.53 = daily close high for multiple months,
achieved Wednesday May 27
$SPX 30-minute with 50,2 Bollinger Band -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p06478778106&a=661018493&r=1590610572564
SPY 299.08 = daily close high for multiple months,
achieved Tuesday May 26
SPY daily closes chart -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p48032502715&a=663798088&r=1586349862082
* bulls need to defend the 100-day SMA
during future declines - keeping it simple means
mechanical trading ... no need to avoid
being a producing robot ... anything else we think
we are is merely ego
** SPY -- 13 consecutive days have closed above the 63-day SMA
( 63 trading days = one quarter of a year )
** the $SPX ITBM smoothed with the 10-day EMA shows
21 consecutive days the ITBM's 10-day EMA has
resided above its zero line, as of the May 26 close
/ES 2965.50 = today's Wednesday May 27th low,
achieved in the day session
2998.21 = /ES 200-day SMA value near the time the day's
low so far printed
* bullish case depends on /ES price action
holding with consistent Staying Power for multiple
days above the /ES 2979.00 horizontal price level
the /ES weekly Pivot for this week ending May 29
and
the /ES monthly Pivot value for May 2020
reside significantly below the 2979.00 level
$OEX 5-minute Volume Weighted Average Price
(VWAP)
is defining every bounce high taking place this morning,
at which point the downside reversal of each
5-minute price bar takes place
which is near-term Bearish for SPY, $SPX and $OEX until proven otherwise by
$OEX price action actually holding back above the VWAP
=============
here is the $OEX daily Perma Link for paying SC subscribers,
showing today's decline filling a previously unfilled Gap Up -
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p91187809744&a=340963636
=============
will $SPX eventually achieve a daily close
which surpasses its 200-day SMA?
$SPX daily closes chart -
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p04582873451&a=581747427&r=1590524430743
3000.37 = $SPX 200-day SMA at this moment, mid-day May 27 eastern time
/ES 3019.46 = daily 21,2 upper Bollinger Band value
as of Wednesday May 27 at approx. 60 minutes after
the $SPX cash market open
3017.50 = /ES value at the time of the $SPX cash market open
3035.00 = today's May 27th /ES Globex session high, and represents the new multi-month bounce high, so far
$OEX 5-minute chart with updated horizontal price lows & price highs since March 2020 marked with horizontal lines
shows that today's Support 2 has defined the morning low, so far
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&i=p82000218047&a=715238757&r=1590593509169
Perma Link for paying SC subscribers -
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24OEX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&id=p24800325031&a=715238757
$OEX daily with McSum and McO -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p44811130091&a=340963636&r=1590502633313
** $OEX 1366.55 horizontal level
marking the early December 2019 intraday
price low must be defended by bulls
during future declines
** bulls need to see the S&P 100 cumulative net
Advance-Decline line establish a new multi-week bounce high
that surpasses the recent pattern of A-D line lower highs which
reside below the late April high for the A-D line ...
without this internal confirmation of this week's attempt for price to advance to new bounce highs for daily closes,
the probable Staying Power of the SPY, $SPX and $OEX price advance is limited ...
time will tell,
and
watch the $OEX A-D line as a priority
Percentage of the 100 stocks in the $OEX with
PMO's above their zero line -
https://c.stockcharts.com/pnf/chart?c=%21PMOAZOEX,PFTADBNRBO[PA!B15][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&r=7550&pnf=y
126-day SMA ( half year of price action )
for six indices -
SPY 299.02 = 126-day simple moving average,
as of Tuesday's May 26 close
SPY 299.67 = 150-day SMA
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p43910490592&a=760692757&r=1590542459805
SPY 299.67 = 150-day SMA at Tuesday's May 26, 2020 close
SPY 299.64 = 150-day SMA at Friday's close
SPY 150-day SMA is a powerful bull/bear pivot chart location...
time will tell whether bulls have the Staying Power to hold price for 37 trading hours above the 150-day SMA
once above it in the future
charting $SPX or the /ES emini futures for this vigilance item is not as reliable as SPY in my experience,
even though briefing.com keeps its paying subscribers updated on the $SPX 150-day SMA vs. daily closes
$SPX bulls must defend the
100-day SMA if and when
tested from above
$SPX daily closes chart with the
Tuesday May 26 intraday price high
marked with a brown dashed horizontal line
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p04582873451&a=581747427&r=1590524430743
$OEX 1366.55 horizontal level
marking the early December 2019 intraday
price low must be defended by bulls
during future declines
$OEX daily with McSum and McO -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p44811130091&a=340963636&r=1590502633313
* bulls need to see the S&P 100 cumulative net
Advance-Decline line establish a new multi-week bounce high
that surpassed the recent pattern of lower highs which
reside below the late April high for the A-D line ...
without this internal confirmation of this week's attempt for price to advance to new bounce highs for daily closes,
the probable Staying Power of the price advance is limited ...
time will tell, and watch the $OEX A-D line as a priority
/ES futures 2947.50 = the bull/bear pivot value when
using a 30 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted after the market close of the partial trading day
on Monday May 25
bulls need a lasting hold above the 2947.50 level
=================================
RSP vs. SPY daily shows the negatively divergent
RSP lower price highs
vs.
the SPY higher price highs for May vs. April 2020 -
RSP daily
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=RSP&p=D&b=5&g=1&i=p77530317141
SPY daily
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=1&i=p77530317141
** Friday May 22 represents day #5 SPY attempts to hold the horizontal breakout above the 294.88 April high ...
and this breakout first took place on Monday **
simple SPY daily with selected indicators -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p47249717189&a=183961259&r=1458750742284
$SPX daily closes chart with the April daily close high
marked as the horizontal breakout value -
* bulls need $SPX price action to hold above
the declining 100-day SMA for multiple weeks *
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p54623771630&a=581747427&r=1588534487918
$SPX 2983.79 = daily 21,2 upper Bollinger Band value
as of Friday's May 22 close
=================================
the big six names in the S&P 500 and the S&P 100 indices -
* AMZN and FB printed new record price highs this week ending
May 22
the daily closes chart below displays the percentage performance
with splits and dividends adjusted in the look-back price history
for the big six most influential symbols within the
$SPX and $OEX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AAPL&p=D&st=2018-01-01&i=p41598448964&a=485657843&r=1590207966075
the $SPX Total Volume weekly plot
vs.
the volume's 13-week EMA is included
in this SPY weekly chart
* bulls must eventually hold price above
the SPY 21-week SMA on a lasting basis
* bulls must see the weekly RSI-14 hold above
the 60 level for a period of multiple weeks to
be confident in upward Staying Power for the SPY
price action
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=W&st=2011-11-11&i=p99344974764&a=702670260&r=1590452188079
SPY 294.55 = 20-week SMA
as of Friday's May 22 close
SPY weekly -
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=W&st=2013-08-26&i=p72485332110&a=369089730&r=1575299426346
* bulls must defend the 20-week SMA during future declines
284.02 = SPY 15-week SMA and
this moving average continues to decline
Thanks for the charts and info.. Looks like we need the SPX adv/decl to drop below zero..Each tie it does that we sell off.. Just one of the easiest to watch and understand.
@sentimentrader
·
1 hour ago
Volume spiked in March and is now falling.
SPY's volume is now -64% below its 3 month average,
while the S&P 500 is under its 200 day moving average
When this happened over the past 20 years,
U.S. stocks ALWAYS pulled back over the next 2 months,
sometimes *very sharply*
https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1264154580130189312/photo/1
=================================
chart #1 - SPY & $NYA daily closes
vs.
200-day SMA since 2015
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=!MCOSIRNYC&p=D&st=2015-04-01&i=p05236667427&a=625434407&r=1575641948680
chart #2 - daily $SPX since 2010
with 1,200,1 MACD which highlights
price action vs. the $SPX 200-day EMA
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&st=2010-08-01&i=p31102185077&a=747407124&r=1588513454224
chart #3 - daily $SPX chart which
highlights the $SPX price action
vs. 100-day SMA and vs. 150-day SMA
* the $VIX is resting for three consecutive days below
its daily 63,1 lower Bollinger Band ... time for a $VIX bounce?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&i=p69567235682&a=588455757&r=1588406110278
chart #4 - $SPX daily closes chart
with three S&P 500 internals vs. their potential
horizontal bull/bear values
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&i=p48145416080&a=747130146&r=1588437201539
chart #5 - $NYA daily vs. 21-day SMA and
vs.
potential horizontal bull/bear values
11,195.96 = 21-day SMA as of
Friday's May 22 close ... which resides
below Friday's closing price and the
21-day SMA sits below the $NYA price action
for five consecutive days
* the $SPX 50-day SMA = 2731.47 as of
Friday's May 22 close, which represents
a potential downside target once bears
retake control of the price action in
the intermediate term
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYA&p=D&st=2016-08-01&i=p4928170551c&a=260296468&r=1590239210316
SPY 295.79 = 21-week SMA
as of Friday May 22 close
SPY weekly closes chart -
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=W&st=2007-03-01&i=p44598818899&a=340963757&r=1575683095319
* the bullish case requires multiple weeks
with the price action holding above the
21-week simple moving average
/ES futures 2904.83 = the bull/bear pivot value when
using a 360 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted after the market close on
Friday May 22
bulls need a lasting hold above the 2904.83 level
/ES futures 2980.90 = current value of daily
21,2 upper Bollinger Band as of Friday's May 22 close
2997.xx = current value of the 200-day SMA
2903.75 = low on Friday May 22, printed in early morning Globex
2933.00 = low on Thursday May 21 printed in morning
2976.25 = the new bounce high this week achieved Tuesday morning at approx. 3:00 a.m. Eastern time
2967.00 was the prior multi-month high in May printed since the March 2020 low,
and was also achieved in an early A.M. Globex session
2947.00 was last week's bounce high
=================================
RSP vs. SPY daily shows the negatively divergent
RSP lower price highs
vs.
the SPY higher price highs for May vs. April 2020 -
RSP daily
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=RSP&p=D&b=5&g=1&i=p77530317141
SPY daily
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=1&i=p77530317141
** Friday May 22 represents day #5 SPY attempts to hold the horizontal breakout above the 294.88 April high ...
and this breakout first took place on Monday **
simple SPY daily with selected indicators -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p47249717189&a=183961259&r=1458750742284
$SPX daily closes chart with the April daily close high
marked as the horizontal breakout value -
* bulls need $SPX price action to hold above
the declining 100-day SMA for multiple weeks *
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p54623771630&a=581747427&r=1588534487918
$SPX 2983.79 = daily 21,2 upper Bollinger Band value
as of Friday's May 22 close
=================================
the big six names in the S&P 500 and the S&P 100 indices -
* AMZN and FB printed new record price highs this week ending
May 22
the daily closes chart below displays the percentage performance
with splits and dividends adjusted in the look-back price history
for the big six most influential symbols within the
$SPX and $OEX -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AAPL&p=D&st=2018-01-01&i=p41598448964&a=485657843&r=1590207966075
S&P 500 cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners line
continues since its peak high
in April 2020 to display a pattern
of lower highs
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=!ADLINESPX&p=D&st=2019-10-31&i=p09170486617&a=607135436&r=1586705560320
* the lower highs since the April peak for
the A-D line needs to be negated by an upward
breakout over both the May peak and the higher
April peak to provide higher confidence the
SPY and $SPX price action will be supported by
the S&P 500 internals to reach SPY $299 level
and
actually hold above $300 for multiple weeks
** the mid-May low for the A-D line needs to be defended
by the bulls when future declines by the A-D line occur **
** the 19-day EMA located above the 39-day EMA for the
A-D line is constructive for the $SPX and SPY bullish case
only while the positive moving average crossover condition has Staying Power **
chart #2 is the daily $SPX chart providing
a 14-month perspective of the
S&P 500 McSum and McO
versus their zero lines
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=p36506950628&a=340963635&r=1590206274473
correction: /ES low this week is 2850.00,
so far, which was printed very near the Sunday
Globex open
/ES futures 2933.00 = today's low printed in afternoon Thursday May 21
/ES 2908.50 = this week's low printed in the Wednesday May 20
early Globex session on Tuesday evening May 19
2976.25 = the new bounce high this week achieved Tuesday morning at approx. 3:00 a.m. Eastern time
2967.00 was the prior multi-month high in May printed since the March 2020 low,
and was also achieved in an early A.M. Globex session
2947.00 was last week's bounce high
=================================
RSP vs. SPY daily shows the negatively divergent
RSP lower price highs
vs.
the SPY higher price highs for May vs. April 2020 -
RSP daily
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=RSP&p=D&b=5&g=1&i=p77530317141
SPY daily
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=1&i=p77530317141
=================================
Thursday May 21 is day #4 since the SPY & the $OEX horizontal breakouts took place on Monday --
shown below are the day by day chart highlights with my interpretation comments --
David Keller, CMT wrote this article on May 14th about the negative divergences on display by selected Advance-Decline lines -
Market Breadth
Today we’re looking at market breadth in the form of the cumulative advance decline lines.
Market breadth at a high level essentially means market participation, so when the market is on the move, it tells you how many stocks are participating in the trend.
Each day, the cumulative advance decline line takes the stocks advancing (closing higher than yesterday’s close) less the stocks declining (closing lower than yesterday’s close).
You are left with a net number of advancers minus decliners, and these values accumulate over time.
At the top of this chart we’re looking at the S&P 500 Index on a closing basis, and below that we have the cumulative advance decline line for the S&P 500, the NYSE, the mid cap index, and the small cap index.
I like to look at cumulative advance decline lines across the cap tiers, from large to mid to small, as this shows which stocks are participating in the market trend.
Over the last six weeks, after the initial V bottom and subsequent pullback, we’ve seen a continued uptrend of higher highs for the S&P 500. This week, however, we may have put in a lower high. If we get a follow through and a break below the most recent swing low, this would suggest a short term tactical downtrend. But until then, we just seem to be establishing a bit of a short term peak.
The question now is, have we exhausted this bear market rally and are we beginning the next leg down? Looking at the cumulative advance decline lines are one way to answer that question.
Over the last six weeks these breadth measures have been drifting higher. They have continued a trend of higher peaks and higher valleys, or higher highs and higher lows. With this week’s selloff, the S&P 500 advance decline line is now right back down to the trend line using the lows over the last six weeks.
It’s important to note that the breadth indicators on this chart haven’t updated yet because it’s right after the close. I’m curious to see if these cumulative advance decline lines break down below support, especially with the bearish engulfing patterns that have emerged on the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and even stocks that have recently broken to new highs. All this suggests short term weakness.
This is a market that has been perceived as a large or mega cap led market, and over the long term this has certainly been the case. Looking at the relative performance of the S&P vs the small cap index, the S&P has been a consistent outperformer in that relationship.
But if you look since the market low in mid/late March, the strongest performer of these four buckets is actually the mid cap index. It will be interesting to see if these advance decline lines break down through trend line support and then break down through their most recent swing lows. If this recent pattern of higher peaks and higher valleys reverses and we see lower highs and lower lows, this suggests that the breadth characteristics are transitioning from a period of strength to a period of weakness.
I could see a situation where the S&P 500 actually holds above 2750 or 2800. But if we see these cumulative advance decline lines start to roll over, the very last thing to happen would be the S&P actually breaks down through price support. In many cases, breadth indicators will begin to show weakness well before the price begins to react to the negativity.
I’m monitoring market breadth in the form of the cumulative advance decline lines for the S&P and other cap tiers. And based on the bearish engulfing pattern that we’ve seen on the S&P 500 this week, I suspect a break in these trend lines and subsequent break down through support will likely happen soon.
==========================================
On Wed, May 20, 2020 at 3:38 PM xxx wrote:
at Wednesday's close, the $SPSUPX has not yet surpassed
the 100-day SMA nor the 200-day SMA
$SPSUPX daily -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPSUPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p23434862335&a=691610419&r=1588348593654
And
the S&P 500 Advance-Decline line lower highs persist, which represents a
firmly negatively divergent condition which is not supporting the probable
continuation of the SPY and $SPX higher high price action, unless
the A-D line lower highs are negated by the A-D line actually surpassing its prior May 2020 high -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=!ADLINESPX&p=D&st=2019-10-31&i=p09170486617&a=607135436&r=1586705560320
On Wed, May 20, 2020 at 1:44 AM xxx wrote:
$SPX 300-day SMA and 100-day SMA vigilance -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p04311509546&a=627033842&r=1589960130536
* at this moment, the negatively divergent
S&P 500 cumulative net Advance-Decline line's lower highs in recent weeks
vs.
the $SPX higher daily closes as of Monday May 18, 2020
is not constructive for the bullish case until the negative
divergence by the S&P 500 A-D line is resolved
horizontal breakout condition is absent for
the $NYA and for $NYSI
($NYSI = the NYSE ratio adjusted McClellan Summation index, which is also in hover mode near its zero line )
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&i=p22864139385&a=306420470&r=1589891229193
* this chart must improve OR the US equity market horizontal breakouts now in play
for day #1 will fail and reverse in the coming days
$OEX horizontal breakout for day #1, Monday May 18th -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=20&i=p19081465758&a=589367470&r=1586708199509
$SPX horizontal breakout now in play for day #1 on Monday ... the
question is whether the breakout has Staying Power for multiple days?
$SPX daily closes chart -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p54623771630&a=581747427&r=1588534487918
On Mon, May 18, 2020 at 12:29 PM xxx wrote:
SPY horizontal breakout is now in play for day #1, as of the close Monday May 18th
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p47249717189&a=183961259&r=1458750742284
/ES futures 2975.75 = Wednesday's all trading hours price
high today, which falls short of matching or surpassing the prior
/ES high achieved in May 2020 by an overnight print this week
of 2976.25
=========================
RSP vs. SPY daily shows the negatively divergent
RSP lower price highs
vs.
the SPY higher price highs for May vs. April 2020 -
RSP daily
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=RSP&p=D&b=5&g=1&i=p77530317141
SPY daily
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=1&i=p77530317141
/ES futures 2969.70 = the daily 21,2 Upper Bollinger Band value
at this moment
/ES futures 2948.63 = the bull/bear pivot value when
using a 5 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted 50 minutes before the market open on
Wednesday May 20
/ES futures 2906.38 = the bull/bear pivot value when
using a 10 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted 50 minutes before the market open on
Wednesday May 20
2930.67 = daily bull/bear pivot value using the 6.5 hour day session only period for the look back ...
the weekly and monthly
pivot values are significantly lower by many 10's of points
** bulls must defend the /ES 2930.67 level during declines in order to maintain control of the price action **
2976.25 = the new bounce high this week achieved Tuesday morning at approx. 3:00 a.m. Eastern time
2967.00 was the prior multi-month high in May printed since the March 2020 low,
and was also achieved in an early A.M. Globex session
2947.00 was last week's bounce high
2908.50 = this week's current low, achieved early evening
Tuesday May 19 in the May 20th Globex session
$SPX 300-day SMA and 100-day SMA vigilance -
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p04311509546&a=627033842&r=1589960130536
* at this moment, the negatively divergent S&P 500 cumulative net Advance-Decline line's lower highs in recent
weeks
vs.
the $SPX higher daily price closes as of Monday May 18, 2020
is not constructive for the bullish case until the negative
divergence by the S&P 500 A-D line is resolved
/ES futures 2902.45 = the bull/bear pivot value when
using a 360 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted 100 minutes before the market open on
Wednesday May 6
bulls need a lasting hold above the 2902.46 level
2864.58 = /ES weekly Pivot value for week ending May 8
2858.83 = today's RTH daily Pivot value for May 6
-- a bull/bear pivot value based on the hours of /ES price action
counting only the 6.5 hours when the cash market is also open
2757.42 = /ES monthly Pivot value for May 2020
/ES futures 2909.13 = the bull/bear pivot value when
using a 5 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted 100 minutes before the market open on
Wednesday May 6
/ES futures 2873.38 = the bull/bear pivot value when
using a 10 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted 100 minutes before the market open on
Wednesday May 6
/ES futures 2790.00 = the bull/bear pivot value when
using a 30 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted 100 minutes before the market open on
Wednesday May 6
2818.40 = 50-day EMA value before today's cash market open
2815.70 = 21-day SMA before today's cash market open
/ES futures 2889.75 = this week's high so far,
achieved in late day Tuesday May 5, 2020
/ES late in the day and into settlement
violated its weekly Pivot
value by a decent distance amount
during portions of the price action
reference the $OEX 5-minute violating
its VWAP in late day
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=12&i=p28805395160&a=714940902&r=1588728110493
VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price
3-day zoom version of the $OEX 5-minute
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24OEX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&i=p27250192489&a=714940902&r=1588350298836
================
2864.58 = /ES weekly Pivot value for week ending May 8
/ES futures 2788.xx = the bull/bear pivot value when
using a 30 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted at the market close on Monday May 4
bulls need a lasting hold above the 2788.xx level
2757.42 = /ES monthly Pivot value for May 2020
/ES futures 2791.38 = the bull/bear pivot value when
using a 10 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted 80 minutes before the market open on Tuesday
May 5th
bulls need a lasting hold above the 2791.38 level
2804.25 = /ES open on Monday May 4 at the time of the cash
market open
2864.58 = /ES weekly Pivot value for week ending May 8
/ES futures 2788.xx = the bull/bear pivot value when
using a 30 trading days look back period for the Volume by Price
analysis conducted at the market close on Monday May 4
bulls need a lasting hold above the 2788.xx level
2757.42 = /ES monthly Pivot value for May 2020
Followers
|
14
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
368
|
Created
|
06/02/12
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderator rimshot | |||
Assistants CopperDollar |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |