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It seems the correction is over. As I mentioned on friday- the same chart pattern as of Feb. 2010.
Will do.
I hope your not one of the one's getting layed off at NASA when the shuttle program ends.
northam43:
Sorry for the delayed reply...have been busy with the launch of Atlantis and post-launch activities.
I would like take this opportunity to sincerely thank you for your enormous effort in describing the three time frames and assessment of the market direction.
Thanks for sharing your simple method.
I am watching the EMA3/EMA8 cross on all time frames now to see where we are. I am also not sure whether monthly 3/8 will cross down.
Please keep us informed if the monthly turns down and targets thereof. If we bottom, please denote the same.
TIA and Regards.
it could be a reversal day today. I trade futures on a daily basis only. Too risky to leave it overnight.
Of course he sold some CALLS today that he once again mysteriously bought!!!! too funny!!!! Even lying he sold out wayyyy to early!!! hehe
agree 100%. I would say- 1100
Assuming 1110 holds...the Monday buy looks good (relative to Feb sell off)...
POKERSAM gave a re-cap of his "time machine" trades for last week....of course he could not time travel the "calls" he out of character posted he bought before selling themso he could not lie and say it was profitable but their are other strange and mysterious trades on which he of course DID MAKE MONEY ON...WE JUST GOTS TO GET ONE OF THOSE MACHINES!HEHE
NASARAVI - Thank you for your comments.
I'll try and explain my position the best I can.
The market I believe is coming up to a major intersection. The question is, does it go straight or make a turn. My reference to a major intersection is that the SPX Monthly has now came into play. Let me explain by each time frame:
Here is the SPX Daily chart. It shows that the SPX Daily is currently in Phase I 10th Trading Day(below the upper trend line):
The average for a Daily Phase I cycle is currently 5.38 trading days. So the Daily Phase I is currently due to go to Phase II at anytime. The average Daily Phase II cycle is 7.90 trading days. The last Phase II cycle only lasted 2 trading days, it touched the upper trend line and then fell. I'm expecting pretty much the same for the current cycle. Why, because a new weekly cycle Phase I was confirmed on Friday, so that would leave me to believe that the Daily Cycle Phase I will be extended maybe by another 10 trading days or so. So if the Daily cycle remains in Phase I then the down trend continues and the upper trend line and lower trend line prices will decline. Therefore, when the Daily does go into the Phase II cycle the upper trend line price(1174.22) maybe alot lower than what it is now.
Here is the SPX weekly chart of the current confirmed new weekly Phase I cycle: How long will this weekly Phase I cycle last? The average weekly Phase I lasts 6.33 weeks, the last The last two cycles lasted 2 & 3 weeks. The one before that was 30 weeks.
At this point I don't believe this will be a 30 week phase I cycle. Why? Because the Monthly SPX has not yet started a new Phase I and also the monthly has not at this point made an EMA 3/8 bearish crossing. So I currently expect this weekly Phase I to be around the two to three week time frame. For the weekly to remain in Phase I cycle status the price must remain under the weekly upper trend line price which is currently 1182.96. That price should be lower at the open on Monday. The current SPX price is 1135.68 and the current weekly lower trend line price is around 1134. So for the Weekly to go to Phase II it would have to gain about 45 points next week. It could happen but probably not likely, the last 4 weeks ranges was 139.21, 38.18, 33.60, and 31.10. Also if you were to go back and look at new weekly Phase I cycles, the low was always lower than the previous weeks low. In this case the previous weeks low was 1065.79. So I would expect this weekly Phase I cycle low to be lower than 1065.79, based on historical data. This could be the one time that history is again changed, who knows? That is what I am basing it on.
Here is the SPX Monthly chart of the current Phase II cycle which is now in the 10th Month. The average monthly phase II cycle is 18 months. The average complete cycle (both Phase I & II) is 30.75. The SPX monthly cycle is currently in the 29th month.
The current SPX monthly upper trend line price is around 1135, the current SPX price is 1135.68. So the SPX Monthly is just sitting above the monthly upper trend. If on June 1st the SPX price opens below 1135. Then a new monthly cycle phase I could be underway. So the question then would be how low will the monthly go? The current monthly lower trend line price is 1046.68. I would expect it would atleast go to that level. Why? Because once again historical data has shown me that each time the Monthly has gone to Phase I, the lower trend line has been hit. Could it go lower than 1046.68, sure. How much lower? That is the 6 million dollar question. However, there are some important indicators to watch. One the PPO (3,8,4) if it makes a bearish crossing (which it currently has) and the leading indicator drops below the zero line, that would be a very bearish signal. As long as the PPO stays above the zero line, the Monthly Phase I will most likely last only one month. Another indicator the EMA 3/8. If the EMA 3/8 completes a bearish crossing, watch out below.
So now I have shown you all three time frames, there current cycle status, and what to look for. So now lets put this all together and come up with a possible timeline of events:
Daily Hits 1155 (Phase II) next week, then Daily starts new Phase I. I expect there could be two to three more Daily cycles before the end of June.
Weekly goes to 1155 then closes the week out around 1120, then the next week (last week of the month) closes the week around 1085. Then the 3rd week of the cycle it puts in a cycle low that would be around the 1st week of June. Then by the middle to end of June it hits Phase II.
At 1085, a new Monthly Phase I cycle would be underway. It could then hit the lower trend line at around 1047 by the first week of june or middle of June and put in the new low of the year, then the correction could be over and by the 1st week of July the Monthly hits the upper trend line somewhere around the 1120-1130 area, putting it back in Phase II and we are again off to the races for another 15 months
I know this has been long. But I wanted to explain in detail what I am seeing. Now all this could change tomorrow, or next week. This is what I see as a possibility today. Questions are always welcomed and if you see something I don't, please share it. I will update this when things change.
No I didn't. I'm not interested to read his comments anymore. Do you remember my post to you maybe 6-8 months ago? I told you it was waste of time. No anymore. I'm not a doctor, but diagnosis is clear.
Thanks Rab. Did you notice Pokersam's comments. What crash was he talking about?
Great work. thank you.
northam43:
Good call on the selloff. Congrats.
How did you base your call on SPX getting to 1040-1000 by 3-4th week which puts us around end of the month.
Are you expecting any lower prices in June or end of correction at that point and a buying opportunity.
TIA.
Could be. I watch ES charts, they look a little bit different and tell you more.
if so, Monday eod could be the time to buy...looks like the Feb 8th was the day to buy...
there's room for confirmation without giving up anything...
Feb.4th= May 14th: the same chart pattern on daily.
I have no b....s to go long, but I think THE LOW IS IN.
OUCH ON THOSE CALLS FROM LAST THURSDAY EH??HEHE
The key on the monthly is the EMA 3/8:
If a new monthly cycle starts on June 1st, watch the monthly EMA 3/8. If a bearish crossing gets confirmed on the monthly EMA 3/8 a new bear market would be underway lasting several months in Phase I (the down trend).
However, If NO monthly EMA 3/8 crossing is made and the monthly goes back into phase II (the up trend), then the bull market more than likely continues for another 11 to 22 months. This is what I think is the more likely scenario at this time. If a new monthly cycle starts on Jun 1st.
As promised here is the charts of the current and previous Monthly cycles:
Jan 2008 to present cycle, currently in the 29th month, Phase I lasted 18 months:
Here is Phase I chart:
Phase II is currently in the 11th month:
Jul 2006 to Dec 2007 cycle lasted 18 months, Phase I one month and Phase II 17 months:
Aug 2004 to Jun 2006 cycle lasted 23 months, Phase I one month and Phase II 22 months:
Oct 2000 to Jul 2004 cycle lasted 46 months, Phase I 31 months and Phase II 15 months:
Chart of Phase I 31 months:
Chart of Phase II 15 months:
Bottom line: Looks like a new monthly cycle could be close at hand.
sounds good...thanks
fundamentally this France/euro thing is playing into it...
if France suddenly gets back on board over the weekend, that will play into Monday.
Sstingrey - I'd say 99.999% chance the new weekly phase I will be confirmed. The current price level is below the lower trend line which is around 1133. So that should be strong resistance at this point.
If the SPX closes below 1135. I would expect the downtrend to continue on Monday. Reason for this, on the Monthly the current upper trend line price is around 1135. So below that indicates the SPX may be on the verge of starting a new Monthly cycle. If a new Monthly cycle is started on June 1st, the SPX will more than likely establish the low of the year in that cycle.
I should have charts for the current and last three monthly cycles posted shortly.
I'm assuming your new weekly cycle is confirmed.
Do you think we'll get another bounce Monday?
Yesterday POKERPINNOCHIO says he can see 10 points down on the s+p before the "rise" continues....today he says a correction down....yet he holds calls way underwater...unless...THE TIME MACHINE is used....would he??hehe
The sick man probably likes pain.
agreed...he was late
Sstingrey - I have followed Tony Caldaro the past 3 years. He did not change from Bear to Bull until March 12, 2010. He has also been late on other major market trend changes. So I have stopped following him myself. I have personally came to the conclusion that any form of E-Wave is mostly subjective. One good thing about Tony Caldaro, his work is well documented. However, there is no documentation of trades and what kind of returns were produced using this system.
I believe a good system should have a few simple rules, be able to be used in all timeframes, have start and ending points in cement (they don't change), and have documented performance.
I agree, the SPX may be the best to follow...
This guy is pretty good too...
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/blog/
Thanks a lot Northam. This is very useful. I look forward to studying your chart when you have time.
Enjoy the game and all the best.
sat.
Satorino - I use the EMA 11 High and EMA 11 Low for my upper and lower trend lines.
When the price remains below the upper trend line and does not touch the upper trend line during the entire month, that is the beginning of Phase I.
When the price touches or goes above the upper trend line, that is the beginning of Phase II.
Hope this helps. I have to go to a ball game tonight. Tomorrow I will post a chart of each of the cycles I listed so you can see what I am talking about.
upon further reading i see you use your upper and lower 11 sma to define cycles. now i get it....or i think i do.
thanks
sat.
Northam, i keep reading your posts carefully and I thank you for your great work which I find very stimulating.
I am trying to figure out your monthly cycles and i dont understand why you use july 04 and august 04 to call end and beginning of a cycle. I dont see any sma crossing there, just a touching. do you consider touching significant enough to give rise to a cycle or you use other indicators.
Thanks for any insight you might wish to give.and Good luck.
Sat.
OUCH FOR YOU EH??? HEHE!!!WHERE IS THAT 1250 YOU PROMISED BY THE 10TH OF MAY???? HEHE
APRIL PUTS EXPIRE WORTHLESS AND NOW YOUR MAY CALLS ARE BUH BYE!!!!HEHE
I have updated my SPX Monthly spreadsheet and want to share some info that might be of interest:
From Oct 2, 2000 to the Present there have been 4 Monthly cycles including the present one.
The Oct 2000 to Jul 2004 cycle lasted 46 months, Phase I 31 months & Phase II 15 months, cycle low 768.67 cycle high 1163.23 diff 394.56
The Aug 2004 to Jun 2006 cycle lasted 23 months, Phase I 1 month & Phase II 22 months, cycle low 1060.72 cycle high 1326.70 diff 265.98
The Jul 2006 to Dec 2007 cycle lasted 18 months, Phase I 1 month & Phase II 17 months, cycle low 1224.54 cycle high 1576.09 diff 351.55
The Jan 2008 to Present cycle is currently in the 29th month, Phase I 18 months, Phase II currently in the 11th month, cycle low 666.79 cycle high 1219.80 diff 553.01
The average Phase I is 12.75 months and average Phase II is 16.25 months.
A new monthly cycle could be close at hand.
North, I use the very simple tools: RSI14, CCI, Stock/Rsi and MA on weekly chart.
Once 20MA broken- we are going down. lets see what happens @1140.
I really appreciate your work and willingness to help us here.
Rab120 - If you look at the weekly chart, the trend has been down starting April 26. I believe we have started a new weekly cycle and I believe the down trend will most likely continue.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=50130565
He is watching this thread...LOL
QQQQ Cycles:
I have notice that the QQQQ Daily today hit my upper trend line at 48.75. That puts it into Phase II. So if it closes today below the upper trend line and opens tomorrow below it. A new QQQQ Daily Phase I would start tomorrow. At the present time it looks like a high percent chance that's what will happen.
That could also mean a possible large sell off tomorrow.
Sstingrey - Thanks for your feedback.
As long as it's working I'll stick with it. I'm not glued to anything that doesn't produce results.
I've learn't most everything I know about the market right here at I-hub.
I have to admit I have even learned something off of Pokersam. Pokersam has said that he believes the SPX is the better index to follow because it has a more accurate picture of the market. That is why I use the SPX in my system.
There are many others that I have learned from. I have gone through many other systems before getting to this one. I really feel very confident in this system thus far.
My philosophy has always been to share what works for me with others and I hope it works for them as well or maybe they can produce something better off of what I have created and share it as well. To me we should all be working together.
He showed he was a failure on Trend1's board because he was not in control. So now you have to come to his website, where he has control, and he expects you to pay for it. He deleted posts at his I-hub website that made hime look bad, I would assume he would do the same at his own website. Now he has RCKS getting messages from lurkers on how great his calls are. I've had PM's sent to me telling me the opposite.
I guess there are some out there that would like to throw their money away. I would never spend a dime on an unproven system.
That may be it. Once he revises his e-count to what the market actually did, he corrects the trades to show how much profit they would have made. Of course, in his mind, that is all perfectly "legal". I wish I had a broker who would do that for me.
mongo, I remember you consistent calling 'higher' week after week more than a year ago...you saw it coming and I'm assuming you banked some coin as a result...
north, your system looks pretty accurate from my perspective...
NASARAVI - "I am getting to understand your system and it seems fool proof. You just have to be patient."
Exactly! The patients part is hard. That is something I have been improving on and I have been making less trades with about the same profit.
Today the SPX Daily upper trend line is at 1177.3, the weekly is 1182.84 and the monthly is 1134.95.
Monthly Cycle: 29th Month, 10th month in Phase II
Weekly: Either the 16th week, and 13th week in Phase II or 1st week in Phase I.
Daily: 8th Day in Phase I.
Just remember he has a TIME MACHINE which he uses when the "FACTS" change...he goes back in time and cancels trades...even with that he had a net LOSS for all of 2009 according to a PIT member...he really STUNK HEHE
northam43:
I do hope so, unless the MMakers keep it flat to distribute for the 401/K monies they get 15/16th. They did not do the same early part of the month, so not sure.
I am getting to understand your system and it seems fool proof. You just have to be patient.
Regards.
MONGO
Maybe he means he just post his few wining trades & not his many loses. Who would know ?????
Dan
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