Roundy's, Inc. (RNDY)

[ofspring]

Shorters always ruin it.. Next earnings ay...

[AXE_EVERYTHING]

was hoping that it would have held the 2.40 level, think shorters are winning the battle here....

[AXE_EVERYTHING]

I would like to see it hold this 2.40 level, and move back up....will see what happens...

but to pull back some after the gap up is not all a bad thing....

some traders will take some off the table ....

[ofspring]

What happened? ?? I thought forsure it would move up today. ..

[ofspring]

They made 1.1 million off selling the R stores. .. Got like that

[ofspring]

Yeah debt went down too..

[AXE_EVERYTHING]

agreed, i like how they paid down 10million in debt in this last quarter alone , think we go and hit that gap soon, the end of the year should show some serious promise imo.....

they also have 5 more stores locked in next year and perhaps 2 additional above that....

[ofspring]

Double in net sales from a year ago... RNDY..

[ofspring]

Dramatically difference in loss from a year ago.. Looking good 30, 2014 to 3, 2015...

[diannedawn]

I do not have a Mariano's to shop at...
But reading your description of the store
sure makes me wish I did!
:)

[AXE_EVERYTHING]

78million more sales in second quarter in ILLINOIS compared to 2014

[AXE_EVERYTHING]

looks like some shorters covering in the after hours already....minutes away here...

[Donotunderstand]

ok

nice post

my sense - and the accounting on this would be able to say anything with so many new stores (rate of depreciation - way to count building costs etc)

my sense is that Mariano's is not yet making money

but shopping at one (and a few other cool places that took the place of Dominick's) and visiting to shop about 4 others - they are outstanding stores - and are what a lot of people in Chicago want ........ some hipsters and some yuppies but the pricing in general is also value on common stuff and outright cheap on 2-4 items most weeks (e.g. they had crazy low prices on a peanut butter brand and cream cheese brand and dressing brand that I bought - I mean crazy low !.. Now each is at least 25% higher but I noticed - there is a different brand of dressing that is down in price etc. ---- so I think they purposefully move up and down (insanely cheap and good price) on a bunch of stuff which frankly makes shopping the bargain fun

then the BAR
then all the salads
the butchers
the great cheese department

others imitate but they have a style the others do not have

Whole foods took over a Dominicks and its sharp and interesting but WOW it deserves the name Whole PayCheck

bottom line I fear may be cash
I decided to read the 10K and they are burning through (did burn through??) reserves or retained earnings cash. So now to SPEND they need to have gross profit

do they have it ?

again - seems they have cash even if the numbers do not so suggest as there likely are a bunch of NON cash expenses they bury into a cash analysis

the tone re future on the call will be important -

do they caution money is tight
do they brag - hopefully about Mariano's - that it is getting bettr on income v expense by the month on a same store basis and maybe ---- now 5 stores or whatever are 100% profitable fully expense loaded ?
do they brag on how they have plans to turn around some of the WI stuff ? (again the math on leases for long periods on stores they close cloud understanding easily their "books"

I assume they will hit the numbers nearly exact

then what is their tone (as the stock is about to hit 2.59)

I did load up a bunch to trade from 3.30 and down (with some great swing trades) but have too many shares right now and did sell (at a minor loss) about 20% of my holdings - to have cash

still want to be wrong to do the hedge selling

[AXE_EVERYTHING]

Nice Post!!! i think a combination of all 3 of those as explanation for the recent action...

cant help but feel that as time moves forward the debt that the company has taken on to build the Mariano's brand will continue to be paid down in a dramatic fashion....

each month being better than the preceding....

eventually, the only thing left will be the strategy that will be needed to either 1) transform the remaining nonMariano stores in Wisconsin into a very profitable entity(the take the bull by the horns approach and compete) or 2) find a buyer (which already has proven to be somewhat difficult)

or if that part of the company proves to be too large a thorn, I feel management can take another strategy number 3) which would be to Spin it Off...Im wondering if that is in the midst as that can be a viable option that can potentially put some boosters on the Mariano side of things....

imo Mariano's outshines ALL THE OTHER RETAILERS in this sector by a long shot....and also I feel management is grounded in such a way that they are not going to let down the fight until they are dominating the marketplace....

BUT I do feel this has been a haven for shorters as UNCERTAINTY is what they love to capitalize on....and there is uncertainty here within the last 3 to 6 months due to additional shares that were released ........

from the DD that I have seen, I believe that will be the last of the shares released and as we move forward, im thinking the demand will tighten and we can see a move to fill that gap that still exists on the recent YTD chart....

lets hope for a decent report after market and start the RISE !!!

[Donotunderstand]

today

now stock seemed to drift up last few days

2.30 after shocker bad week - close approx. Friday

today about 2.49

that 19 cents is almost a 10% rise (although after kick in the balls decline)

A. the upward movement is some people thinking good earnings news
(or some news - e.g. expanded new LOC)

B. the upward movement is some people knowing good earnings news (or some news - e.g. expanded new LOC)

C. OUCH OUCH OUCH ----- stock shorted from 3 dollars down to 2.30 zone ---- and shorts up to 2.50 are buying to cover ??

Thoughts out thee ?

[AXE_EVERYTHING]

earnings coming soon

[Donotunderstand]

ouch

[Donotunderstand]

oops

thought today was earnings

appears I was a week early

[ofspring]

Not much going on??? Ugh

[Donotunderstand]

oops got in at 2.55ish

[Donotunderstand]

not a chartist at all

I liked the unknown bounce yesterday

I like "that it was opened low" today

Bought a lot more for 30 cent move today - all guess work

But with this stock it should only take a few strong buyers

[ofspring]

We all make mistakes i got a couple stuck too... A long road ahead for some of mine but o well.. I like grocery I know alot about it so I would like to just see how it does here alittle until then... Long chart shows it dips and heads back up.. Is it time or wait alittle we will see..

[diannedawn]

The points you made are valid...
I've been here awhile...sadly...
I would have been better off selling and picking it up later...
Like about now
:)
Hindsight's 20/20
And that's the way the ball bounces sometimes.

I believe they will make a come back.
But I also think it's going to be a long slow grind.

[ofspring]

The markets are up so this follows except it looks like exaggerates some.. I am not here to bash but to follow what wave it goes... It could be a nice bottom buy up til the first of the yr but want watch how it moves a month or so... All stocks have a difference in character. .. glty

[Donotunderstand]

and they may have brought a full pocket or friend

It is all a mystery to me - what looked like too far a fall - and then a sudden one day turn around

have no clue

[Donotunderstand]

oops

their BACK

[Donotunderstand]

oh well

seems to be one buyer (value player?) and they are satiated

[ofspring]

Breaking the bottom support level can not be twisted and should take seriously #1... Local produce has kicked in which means the busy season of grocery is settled until after local crops are done #2.. Got bad taste of Roundys when all the rainbows got shut down in the twin cities and I have to shop at the stiff competition of Cub which I dont like... Thank God HYVEE is expanding in Midwest #3. .. RNDY imo could go lower $1.50 or lower as analysis have downgraded it #5...

[Donotunderstand]

hhmm

not suggesting directly

looking for reason to add 12 cents with no earnings news

[Donotunderstand]

why could it stop sinking and rise say 10-20%

the same way many stock do

they had a price based on expectations

then it became clear Wisconsin competition stronger than thought and Mariano's doing volume business but need to refine etc. to make money - profit on consistent basis

with that downward shift in expectations the price drops

but at some point - some price level - that is then factored into the price

I hope we hit this price level and now any news that surprises to the positive ?

[ofspring]

Roundys has been sinking since April. .. Why will it change now???

[Donotunderstand]

I do hope and suspect you are a day late with talk of doom

[ofspring]

Down down down Roundys...

[Donotunderstand]

no buyers for the stock

One would think a competitor could buy some of their regional locations - the really good ones and do real well (closing some of theirs and rationalizing)

then sell of owned property and long term leases to independents
(in Chicago when Dominicks left - Jewel took a bunch Marianos a half bunch and a good half bunch went to places that took one or two locations --- they have value)

and focus on Mariano's which is a model that should produce big income but needs work

[paulieman20]

Today is crazy... How can it be this low?

[J.D. Penny]

It was a painic/electronic sell today bc 2.80 didn't hold. 3.20 is dependent on gd earnings on 8.4

[Donotunderstand]

I added at 2.63

Just a rumor and we go to 3.20

R things THAT BAD in Wisconsin? (I see the Marianos)

[J.D. Penny]

Let's see if 2.80 holds. Hoping for a bounce to 3.20.

[J.D. Penny]

earnings are 8.4.15 today is an over reaction to recall bc RNDY was named in the article as a retailer affected by the recall.

[Donotunderstand]

WHEN r earnings?

(I wonder if indeed this is related to the recall - or if some r using that as an excuse to sell? - I bought but ?)

[J.D. Penny]

Market over reacting to recall today. Great buying opportunity.

[J.D. Penny]

A few days like today and steady she goes back to 6$. The new store in Northbrook, IL is easily the nicest grocery store I've ever seen! Chicago had A huge grocery chain close its doors for good and Mariano's is now filling that void in a big way!

[AXE_EVERYTHING]

also, we have that nice gap to go and fill along the way

[AXE_EVERYTHING]

yeah at this point im feeling the float is locked again....perhaps by year end a move back up to that $6.11 52week high....or perhaps by next feb/march 2016....

[Donotunderstand]

makes sense

3.50 is the price of that sale - right?

and I assume the insider sold what they wanted to at 3.50 ?

consolidation in the industry could be a friend

[AXE_EVERYTHING]

thin on the way up, as the downturn imo was rather unjustified...

[Donotunderstand]

and again up

?

[Donotunderstand]

hhmm
?

[Donotunderstand]

up a bunch

??

[Donotunderstand]

agree but I assume as a NON chartist that there is some broken support selling ? and if it falls below and stays below 3 bucks a share -- I think that changes the math re Margin at many houses