Rite Aid Corp (fka RADCQ)

[billytbone]

People are growing tired of vaccinations and covid in general banking on huge revs from them is a mistake.

[packerfan9]

Deutsche Bank laundered in 2013 funds from Russian mob to Trump thru Manafort. When no others would lend to him. After all his bankruptcies. Why in 2013 Russian mob had entire floor in Trump Tower. Dirtiest bank on earth.

[packerfan9]

Over next year we are going to need covid shots like flu. No way covid vaccines will be the one time and never again. Like polio was when I was a kid. Used to kill millions. Covid vaccines are going to be big new yearly recurring revenues like flu vaccines. I hope more get vaccinated soon. I used to sell vaccines 20 years ago. Will be no more gov centers. Just do like flu at rite aid etc. All the money will flow thru pharmacies. Scary that people not getting it. They will never be free of the covid risk. With flu the ones who die. Are ones who do not get vaccinated. We need world to really pick up the pace. When fall hits look out again. By then variants could be even worse. Only good part is pharmacies will rake it in. We will do well on any pharmacy stocks from here. Anything under 20 seems good to me.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

RAD down WBA and CVS basically unchanged

[packerfan9]

Something we agree on lol. The earnings where good. Thank market RAD did fine.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

thanks for the dip RAD. adding under $17

[roadkilll]

Launches Offer to Exchange up to $750,000,000 Aggregate Principal Amount of Outstanding 6.125% Senior Notes Due 2023 for Newly Issued 8.0% Senior Secured Notes Due 2026 and Cash

That hurts. Turnaround story took a big hit today. GLTA

[roadkilll]

Beat on earnings and market is unhappy
When I don't understand this big of a negative reaction it's time to sell.

If I'm wrong in selling I hope to buy back my shares at lower prices.

[roadkilll]

Deutsch Bank is now the most interesting part of the earnings story
Deutsch Bank did it's best to get shorts out ahead of earnings?

The worlds shadiest bank
2021
Deutsche Bank handed $124 million in bribery fines by US court
Germany's biggest lender has agreed to the payout to settle allegations that it broke US anti-bribery and commodities trading laws.
2019
The New York Department of Financial Services (DFS) fined the bank $425m over the same case, in which roubles were converted into dollars via fake trades on behalf of VIP Russian clients
2017
Jan 31, 2017 — Deutsche Bank fined for $10 billion Russian money-laundering scheme ... The big fines keep coming for Deutsche Bank

DB downgraded Rite Aid days before earnings

[roadkilll]

True.
I'm betting the new management team is turning this one around. We should know this week if it's the exception to norm for reverse stock splits.

GLTA

[farooq]

Reverse stock split very rarely out perform market or gain there luster.
It is your choice.

[billytbone]

R/S then dilute the crap out of it again.
Wash, rinse, repeat.

[roadkilll]

Not day trading RAD.
Invested here for the turnaround story and how explosive it can be due to the 20/1 reverse split.

I do watch the Rite Aid/Amazon story. Log onto Amazon and click on the Rite Aid logo to see a store within the Amazon site. Rite Aid buying out Bartell Drugs in Seattle instead of paying down debt got my interest. Bartells is still a part of the Prime Now program. If that is about to be rolled out to all of Rite Aid locations....

[farooq]

Than why to bring it.

[roadkilll]

Not my basis for investing in Rite Aid.

[billytbone]

That's nothing but wishful thinking it will never happen.

[roadkilll]

Amazon is serious about getting into health care via pharmacy
Amazon was serious about going in the grocery business and paid 13.7 billion for Whole Foods.
FTC is not going to allow a Walgreens or CVS merger with Amazon.

Amazon is not going to build thousands of brick and mortar sites.

Rite Aid makes a lot of sense.

[roadkilll]

The Amazon rumor again.

[roadkilll]

UK Begins 'Booster' Shot Trial of 7 Different COVID-19 Vaccines

By Kate Kelland
May 20, 2021

Rite Aid will be paying down a lot of debt with the cash flow from the Covid vaccinations. The only thing keeping RAD valued at P/S of 0.05 is the debt load that was recently upgraded. One more upgrade and I'm guessing P/S valuation is headed for 0.30 norm for sector.

Target a P/S of 0.20 and you get 4 X stock price move to $80 plus a share.

[packerfan9]

Anything made from covid shots is new revenue. Same as it will be each year like Flu shot. It is new revenue stream going forward. No more gov sites will be done like flu shots are.

[roadkilll]

Good to see almost 50% of Americans have had a least one shot
The press is focusing on the states with really low vaccinations rates like Georgia and much of the South. Rite Aid's locations are in states with the highest vaccination rates. I do think the rate is now much slower but nothing wrong with stretching the numbers over a couple of months.

My Doc says the calls he has been on with the CDC is now mostly about the booster shot down the road. He's 100% sure a booster will be a big priority.

[packerfan9]

2021 and 2022 going to be big years for pharmacies. Covid vaccines will be yearly and new revenue to them all. Whatever they made on flu vaccines now same for Covid.

[roadkilll]

Mood's just upgraded debt to positive from stable.
From a P/S of 0.04 to the P/S of 0.33 would be 6X from here.

[packerfan9]

We have good years ahead. Last pandemic was 1918-1920 killed 657K in USA. When we came out of that. We had the roaring 20's. We are about to have another roaring 20's.

[roadkilll]

Agree. The big boost to this quarter is already booked and it will be significant. Dr visits running will ahead of last year and the year over year acute scripts will show a big increase. Same with the foot traffic in the stores.

[packerfan9]

Wrong. Last year did not even have any covid vaccine revenues. Whatever they do this year adds. Then fact is going to need shot every year. That will be done by pharmacies not gov centers. That means all the future shots pharmacies make the money. Going to be big revenues added every year. Same as flu is.

[packerfan9]

That is now. When we need a shot every year pharmacies will be ones doing it all.

[roadkilll]

CVS just announced vaccinations are now 1/3 off of what they were seeing two weeks ago.

Facebook rumors not hard data turning off many. Politics is another huge part to the anti vaxxer constituent.

Expecting a weak period for all pharmacies.

[roadkilll]

"Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) today announced it is now administering the COVID-19 vaccine at all locations, spanning more than 2,500 stores in 17 states".

California and New York allow for trained technicians to administer the vaccine so 50 to 100 daily is doable at busy locations now that supply is no longer an issue. Those two states account for over a third of all Rite Aid locations. March till April 15 there was a very limited supply and and Rite Aid announced 2 million vaccinations were done with les than half of locations with supply. So second half of April and May should be much busier and another 3 million looks like a reasonable target. 5 million for quarter?

Profitability? Normal vaccinations $17 administration fee is considered high margin. Guessing $10 margin and $7 costs.
$40 vaccination minus the $7 cost = $33 margin. Fuzzy expenses added and you have $30 margin. With government contracts nobody makes anything clear so who knows how it will be reported.

$30 margin X 5 million vaccinations = $150 margin = $3.00 share actual profit. Reported profit will look different from actual profit. Good accountants do that for you.

Rite Aid did a 1/20 reverse split. Low share count equals outsized gains when company does well.

* Next quarter I would guess 1/3 the volume = $1.00/share just for vaccinations.

[packerfan9]

Doing well to be able to do that. Vaccine for covid will be big revenues for years. Like flu vaccine is. Going to need shot every year.

[roadkilll]

Simple math for vaccination program

Vaccinations zero cost to patient
Vaccine zero cost to Pharmacy
$40 Administration fee for each vaccination a pharmacy performs
$25 margin looks conservative
4 million vaccine this quarter X $25 margin = $100 million to the bottom line
That would be $2.00 earnings per share (that 1/20 reverse split magic)

Going forward 95% of the next 200 million vaccinations will be done at pharmacies so another 3 million at Rite Aid. Again conservative as I expect a big back to school vaccinations in August.
3 million vaccinations next quarter X $25 = $75 million margin for the following quarter
$1.50 in earnings

A good year is shaping up.

[roadkilll]

Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD) today announced that it has issued a notice of redemption (the "Redemption") for all $90,808,000 aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 6.125% Senior Notes Due 2023. Rite Aid is not a threat to BK. Time to take out the BK discount as creditors have now approved $90M to retire a bond long before due date.

$95 million to buyout Bartell drugs a few months ago. and did not issue any debt.

Something is up and I expect is is good news coming soon.

[packerfan9]

10K is really good considering what we have seen for last year with covid. Increasing sales and profits for 2020. Great job.

[packerfan9]

When people tell me they will not get vaccine. I say ever hear of millions who died this year from Polio? They say no. I say exactly because we had vaccine back in 60's is why. Back then public was made to get vaccine for health emergency it was. Came into schools and gave us vaccine. People who die from flu are mainly ones who do not get vaccinated. Flu used to kill millions before vaccines. So many things that used to be big killers stopped by vaccines. Why walk around with covid always a risk? When we have vaccine! 1 in 500 have died when they get covid. 1 in 500,000 have problems with J & J vaccine and very few died. We play stocks. Play better odds get vaccinated. Same way we wiped out killers from the past. Facts matter and history shows us get vaccine. Rite Aid and others going to make big money for years to come. Same as flu vaccine.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

India is a 3rd world country. unfortunate situation. it's amazing there havent been other outbreaks in India from other diseases

[roadkilll]

India has become a nightmare with the lack of oxygen leading to far more deaths than are being counted

Do people still think Covid is just another flu?

Good to know the next statge is for US pharmacies to become saturated with vaccine over the next 2 weeks.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

for the sheep. only sheep get annual flu shots

[roadkilll]

The $40 administration fee and a 300 million patient target is what makes this year historically unprecedented. Expecting the same for the booster shot

It will be an unprecedented windfall for pharmacies. Just like with defense contractors dealing with the government you never talk about the windfall to the public. Big profits for the defense Boyz of course would be a few hundred billion. If pharmacies book $20 to $30 billion it is a drop in the bucket compared to another lockdown in the economy. I think vaccinations have already gotten us past another possible lockdown as the most vulnerable are vaccinated at this point.

[packerfan9]

Covid vaccines will be new revenue source forever. Same as flu is. Shot needed every year.

[roadkilll]

Investors always wanting lower prices. Include me.
RAD continues to creep higher on no known news.

Should be news soon that Rite Aid has hit 3 million vaccinations and expects at least another million by end of quarter. I think I'm being conservative as millions of doses going to mass vaccination centers are now being shipped to pharmacies. Mass vaccination centers are now actually being closed as the public is no longer in panic mode and wants the vaccination in setting with licensed professionals that keep personals records on file.

4 million does X $40 per dose = $160 million
Vaccinations are considered high margin at $17. $25 margin on vaccination = $100 million margin

That would equal $2.00 earnings per share.

Slower pace next 4 months = another 4 million vaccinations. = $2.00 earnings.

Booster done at pharmacies only = $2.00 earnings

[daddycool100]

Right there with you. And add some on Monday Anything under 18 is a good price

[Nebuchadnezzar]

adding 1000 shares of $RAD

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?rad

[12Retyr]

Good Morning RAD.

[roadkilll]

In 30 days vaccinations should be 95% pharmacy
The mass vaccination site already having trouble with cancellations and no shows. Most Pharmacies are now going through their weekly allotment in one day. Vaccine supply to pharmacies should be up 3X in next few weeks.

Best news is that Revco is growing all sectors even during the lockdown. Except for the cough and cold sector, which will return to normal in a few months.

[packerfan9]

When we all fine out going to need annual vaccines. Becomes big revenues like flu shots are. This is like flu going to need shot every year.

[roadkilll]

Analyst now predicting earnings $1 for year.
High margin vaccinations followed by an expected strong end of year for all pharmacies. No shutdown of economy in current year.

[packerfan9]

We are all going to end up getting Covid shots like flu every year. Whatever RX makes on flu hots double that. Going to be this fall and every year at least that many getting shots. Right now pharmacies are not doing most of the shots. Huge revenues for years to come. More then what they will see now. In years ahead. Like flu they will be doing shots. Not gov centers etc.

[roadkilll]

Quarterly report was brutal.
Shorts have a playground until next catalyst. Sold half my holdings and will buy back if shorts can walk this down.

Rite Aid concentrated in California, New York and Pennsylvania. States with the most severe lockdowns when Covid deaths were peaking at 4 thousand deaths daily and hospitals were nearing capacity. Staying long as the market will eventually start looking forward where good things are happening.

[roadkilll]

Rule #1 when being awarded a windfall earnings by the US government
#1 you don't talk publicly about the windfall

Rite Aid, Walgreens and CVS have complied and not included vaccinations profits in their outlook.

[packerfan9]

I agree. Going forward each year will need booster. Going to end up same as a flu vaccine . Yearly. Going to make a lot more because of this.