Relypsa Inc (RLYP)

[H2R]

SA's Brent Jensen: If BO, mid $40/share due to current biotech sentiment.
If it were not for that he would see a mid 60's BO.

If NO BO, Jensen plans on holding as RLYP should be doing just fine

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3964166-will-buy-relypsa-price

So what is Relypsa worth if we believe it will split the hyperkalemia market between these two firms? Taking out the cash on ZS Pharma's balance sheet at the time it was acquired; AstraZeneca paid two times the $1 billion in annual sales ZS-9 should eventually garnered in this scenario. Relypsa has a market cap of just over $700 million after subtracting the current cash on its balance sheet. At a similar valuation to ZS Pharma, the acquiring price would be in the mid to high $60s.

Sentiment now on the sector is not as "risk-on" as it was back when bidding was going on for ZS Pharma as the biotech/biopharma sector is just coming off its deepest bear market since the financial crisis. Let's put a 25% to 35% discount on Relypsa's valuation, this gives us a buyout range from the low to high $40s. Substantially above $22.50 a share, the stock currently sells for at the moment.

To conclude, I think Relypsa will do just fine as a stand-alone entity and I plan to hold even if nothing comes out of these acquisition talks. This is why it will remain in my list as well as the Biotech Forum portfolio. However, its full value would be reached more quickly in a buyout and given the potential of Veltassa; I still think that it is the most likely scenario.

[H2R]

Moussatos: PT $52, Sanofi likely buyer

See http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2016/04/08/relypsa-inc-rlyp-intercept-pharmaceuticals-inc-icpt-attract-analysts-light-potential-acquisition-favorable-fdas-panel-outcome/

Wedbush analyst Liana Moussatos was the first to comment: “We previously looked at the phosphate binder market and based on Symphony Health estimates for total prescriptions, we calculated Renagel and Renvaler (both have the sevelamer polymer as the active ingredient) together have over 80% of the total phosphate binder annual prescriptions and that Sanofi has been clearly successful in our view at counter detailing metal-based phosphate binders. Sanofi and Relypsa have a two year co-detailing contract for Veltassa and we believe Sanofi’s involvement – especially with their salespeople’s presumed long-term relationships with nephrologists who prescribe phosphate binders – is likely to accelerate Veltassa uptake. Because Veltassa is a non-metal polymer like Sanofi’s phosphate binders, we see it as a great addition for their salespeople. Consequently, we would not be surprised if Sanofi is the eventual acquirer.”

Moussatos reiterated an Outperform rating on shares of Relypsa, with a price target of $52, which represents a potential upside of 114% from where the stock is currently trading.

According to TipRanks.com, which measures analysts’ and bloggers’ success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Liana Moussatos has a yearly average return of 10% and a 39% success rate. Moussatos has a 4% average return when recommending RLYP, and is ranked #234 out of 3780 analysts.

[$$$eeker]

Story is from just another short spreading misinformation. Black Box warning is not really an issue with Veltassa.
Read this article also. http://bit.ly/1TGlsap

[venturecapp]

Here’s Why a Relypsa Buyout is Risky Before May 26

http://marketexclusive.com/heres-why-a-relypsa-inc-nasdaqrlyp-buyout-is-risky-before-may-26/5356/

[Joe89]

What was I looking at earlier? This is weird, Yahoo showing $1.69B, I guess the number does not refresh as fast.

tradingview has it at $580M, I guess they are delayed!

44m shares out, you are correct! I thought that was a bit weird from tradingview.

[scottsmith]

Rlyp is now worth 1 billion...

[Joe89]

Even if you chop your $2B target to $1B, that is still a good move from here.

At the moment the price is truth so we have to accept that current levels might a lot closer to where it needs to be.

[BigGreen101]

I do not believe the peak PPS has been reached yet. Script numbers come out next week.

I also expect the PPS to decay some from the high. The BO might take 1-2 months to complete.

What is major difference here with this news? RLYP is working with Centerview Partners Holdings LLC. They are not a small firm.

[BigGreen101]

It has been tough to judge the hyperkalemia market size, which can be up to $6B in annual sales (over even greater IMO).

RLYP only needs 150,000 patients/year to have Veltassa be a billion dollar drug ($595/month treatment cost). Both ZS and RLYP have projected about 3 million people would be candidates for treatment. There are a lot more people with hyperkalemia, but not severe enough (without RAAS inhibitors) or are on dialysis (patient currently excluded).

One can do the math and project the potential maximum market. This market could be expanded to dialysis patient and pediatric in the future. JMO

A $2B offer gives $44/share
A $2.7B offer gives $60/share

AZN bought ZS for $2.7B. I think management is looking for something comparable or more even in this market since Veltassa from RLYP is FDA approved and ZS-9 was not.

[BigGreen101]

Very nice. RLYP should be well for you.

[BigGreen101]

I have been in since $27. The company has been positioning to either go alone or be purchased. I believe someone has finally provided an offer that the company is taking seriously. ZS was purchased for $2.7B. If someone offered $2B for RLYP, that would equate to $44/share. JMO

[Joe89]

Why? For all we know its pretty much priced perfectly right here, unless there is some catalyst that is not factored in yet.

[H2R]

SmithOnStocks New Comments on Possible BO.

It's a paying site, so won't cut&paste the whole article, but a well reasoned paper with different scenarios, based on ZS-9 May 26 FDA approval or not, with BB or not, market size, etc. (SoS is the reason I bought into RLYP in the first place).

His take: IF BO (big IF) from $35 to $90 depending on the scenario.

I would add that RLYP is supposed to publish their scripts in an 8-K in about one week (give or take a few days) and the launch trend may also influence the BO (again, IF any)

[3kidsplus1]

Like tonight. Or tomorrow.

[scottsmith]

Any second!

[3kidsplus1]

When do we find out?

[3kidsplus1]

So why you buy 3000?

[go2sleepjj]

They've been saying this for the longest time. I was in at 12ish before kept avg up ended up losing a bunch of money. So now it's merely a daytrade for me. I work at Sanofi and knew this whole time that RLYP is basically SNY. All the AZN and other company rumors have all been made before. Pps goes up. No bo. It's gets hedged and shorted all the way back down.

[3kidsplus1]

I'm hearing from long term holders $50

[3kidsplus1]

Any thoughts or tips?

[go2sleepjj]

Picked up 3000 shares.

[3kidsplus1]

Whoever bought today obviously is expectant of $40+

[3kidsplus1]

Any confirmation from the company?

[Joe89]

I see estimates ranging $40 - $60, but are there numbers to back this are just out of a hat?

[Vector93]

RLYP has a 6 month head start on the only other hyperkalemia drug on the horizon. It's superior to that drug, and that other drug sold for $2Billion.

The premium for RLYP is much higher than $24.

[scottsmith]

55 for buy out.

[Joe89]

Initial moves can often be wrong.

Need to crunch the numbers here and see if $24 is really the premium that somebody will pay!

What are your thoughts?

[3kidsplus1]

27-30 tomorrow, likely!

[Vector93]

True, it's a rumor.

But it's from Reuters, which doesn't typically pedal BS. And companies don't engage investment banks for the hell of it.

I think we'll get a response about this from the company soon.

All they have to say is "Yes we are analyzing offers" with nothing else and this thing goes up another 20 to 40%.

[H2R]

Up 63%: Relypsa explores potential sale-sources

More of a rumor than a done deal. Could go down if RLYP announces no deal. Tough one to play.

April 7 (Reuters) - Relypsa Inc, a U.S. maker of treatments for blood disorder hyperkalemia, is exploring a sale following a number of overtures from potential buyers, according to people familiar with the matter.

Relypsa is working with investment bank Centerview Partners Holdings LLC to review offers, the people said. The discussions are in their early stages and may not lead to a sale, the people added, asking not to be identified because the talks are private.

Interest in Relypsa has picked up in recent months after the $2.7 billion sale of ZS Pharma to AstraZeneca Plc, the people said. Relypsa and ZS Pharma are the primary competitors in a race to control the market for hyperkalemia treatment, which some estimates say could be worth more than $6 billion.

Several of the companies that unsuccessfully bid for ZS Pharma have reached out to Relypsa, the people said.

Relypsa declined to comment. Centerview did not respond to a request for comment.

(Reporting by Carl O'Donnell in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

[RiverNorth]

Is this going to plummet back down?

[Joe89]

RLYP news: Company is looking for a buyer


http://stockaholics.net/threads/rlyp-relypsa.405/#post-1029

[ClearlyStocks]

Spotted $18 break and went nuts. $23 now. Biotech breakout

[Rogerthat1]

Huh? What's happening

[ClearlyStocks]

Wtf

[H2R]

SA's Brent Jensen on RLYP:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3959495-biotech-daily-digest-valeant-casts-shadow-celator-soars-spotlight-relypsa

My regular readers and real-time followers know how I feel about a small biopharma concern named Relypsa (NASDAQ:RLYP). However, given the stock finally had a huge bounce on Thursday it is time to revisit the investment case on the company for a larger audience in our Spotlight feature to end the week.

The company's primary drug candidate "Veltassa" was approved by the FDA to treat hyperkalemia in the United States late last year. The drug is officially being marketed by the company and Relypsa is beefing up its sales force to take advantage of its first mover advantage. This is the first new product to treat hyperkalemia in decades. Sales have been picking up momentum since the initial Veltassa rollout in January. The company just announced Veltassa scripts in February more than doubled over January.

Hyperkalemia involves elevated concentration of the electrolyte potassium and symptoms can include malaise, muscle weakness and palpitations, among other symptoms. Hyperkalemia can be potentially fatal and frequently is triggered by other medicines and frequently happens in a hospital setting.

There are three to four million patients in the United States alone with hyperkalemia, the vast majority of who have underlying heart failure or kidney disease as the approximate cause of their hyperkalemia. The peak market for treating hyperkalemia is generally believed in the neighborhood of $2 billion annually.

[H2R]

A nice move today so far... Maybe the beginning of Mr. Market noticing this commercial stage company with a big potential. Only time will tell if the scripts keep moving up nicely.
Long RLYP

[value1008]

It's too bad the biotech sector has tanked again (predictable, on XBI's chart), preventing RLYP from running higher on the script news and news of substantial insider buying.

[H2R]

8-k: 100% script growth Feb. over Jan.

https://biz.yahoo.com/e/160315/rlyp8-k.html

Outpatient setting:



January 1-31, 2016 February 1-29, 2016
New patients who 409 812
started taking (average 102 patients/week) (average 203 patients/week)
Veltassa with a
free starter-supply

Outpatient 99 350
prescriptions (average 25 prescriptions/week) (average 87 prescriptions/week)
reimbursed and
dispensed (retail
TRx)

Hospital/institution setting:

January 1-31, 2016 February 1-29, 2016
Hospital/institution 56 117
units sold (average 14 units/week) (average 29 units/week)
(non-retail)

[Parabelle]

These numbers have not been verified by any third party and represent the Company’s estimates as of the date indicated. The Company assumes no obligation to update them.

So in other words they are full of SHIT! IMO

[tb3579]

Exactly right, Value. Thank you. Hardly qualifies as some "massive dumping" scheme. Obvious agenda at work.

[value1008]

But Finance.Yahoo, which keeps pretty accurate stats on insider transactions, only shows insiders selling up to last June:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=RLYP+Insider+Transactions

Orbimed sold off 500k shares back in Dec i think for profit on the 500k shares bought at $12+ in Oct. They still have like 7M shares.

[Parabelle]

Links? Go read the last 3 months of their SEC filings, everything is in there.

[$$$eeker]

Do you have links for your posts, including insiders dumping!?

[Parabelle]

You can't say they didn't warn you!

[Parabelle]

it is possible that there may be unforeseen safety findings with increased patient exposure to Veltassa. While most adverse reactions were mild to moderate these may occur in a more severe form while taking Veltassa. For example, in our clinical trials, we have seen some reductions in blood pressure, which may lead to hypotension, and some reductions in serum magnesium, which in severe forms may lead to weakness, muscle cramps, cardiac arrhythmia, increased irritability of the nervous system with tremors and jerking, confusion or seizures. Further, a degradant of Veltassa is calcium fluoride, which may lead to increased levels of fluoride resulting in bone fragility, tooth decays or nephrotoxicity. Although none of the symptoms associated with severe hypomagnesemia or acute fluoride toxicity have been reported in our clinical studies, patients may experience these more severe side effects while taking Veltassa.

If safety problems occur or are identified after Veltassa reaches the market, the FDA may require that we amend the labeling of Veltassa, recall Veltassa, or even withdraw approval for Veltassa.

If product liability lawsuits are brought against us, we may incur substantial liabilities and may be required to limit commercialization of Veltassa or any future product candidates.

We face an inherent risk of product liability as a result of the clinical testing of our product candidates and will face an even greater risk with the commercialization of Veltassa, or any future product candidates. For example, we may be sued if any product we develop allegedly causes injury or is found to be otherwise unsuitable during product testing, manufacturing, marketing or sale. Any such product liability claims may include allegations of defects in manufacturing, defects in design, a failure to warn of dangers inherent in the product, negligence, strict liability, and a breach of warranties. Claims could also be asserted under state consumer protection acts. If we cannot successfully defend ourselves against product liability claims, we may incur substantial liabilities or be required to limit commercialization of our product candidates. Even successful defense would require significant financial and management resources. Regardless of the merits or eventual outcome, liability claims may result in:
decreased demand for Veltassa or any future product candidates;
injury to our reputation;
withdrawal of clinical trial participants;
costs to defend the related litigation;
a diversion of management’s time and resources;
substantial monetary awards to trial participants or patients;
regulatory investigations, product recalls or withdrawals, or labeling, marketing or promotional restrictions;
loss of revenue; and
the inability to commercialize Veltassa or any future product candidates.


Our inability to maintain sufficient product liability insurance at an acceptable cost and scope of coverage to protect against potential product liability claims could prevent or inhibit the commercialization of Veltassa or any future products we develop. We currently carry product liability insurance covering use in our clinical trials in the amount of $10.0 million for each occurrence and $10.0 million in the aggregate. Although we maintain such insurance, any claim that may be brought against us could result in a court judgment or settlement in an amount that is not covered, in whole or in part, by our insurance or that is in excess of the limits of our insurance coverage. Our insurance policies also have various exclusions and deductibles, and we may be subject to a product liability claim for which we have no coverage. We will have to pay any amounts awarded by a court or negotiated in a settlement that exceed our coverage limitations or that are not covered by our insurance, and we may not have, or be able to obtain, sufficient capital to pay such amounts. Moreover, in the future, we may not be able to maintain insurance

[scottsmith]

The rx numbers are a catalyst. But I think it will be the accumulation of rx numbers over many months that tells the tale.

The biggest catalyst is the results of the competitors drug, ZS. The fda is going to do a number on them. Very strange stuff going on with the reporting of long term studies for ZS.

[scottsmith]

Brett jensen sa article. And ymb.

[value1008]

Where did i just recently hear that some analyst posted a figure of 1700 scripts for Veltassa? I think someone over at YMB reproduced an analyst note to that effect....

[salgovernale69]

Good stuff scott, thanks.