Reconnaissance Energy Africa Ltd (RECAF)

[db101]

Perhaps (RECAF) has come to a point of stabilization… the worst may be behind us

[tdbowieknife]

It's been cliamed IR has said the Recon is analyzing the reservoir...

It's past time Recon issues a PR.


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[dounome]

Waiting on some news, Recaf

[db101]

…$RECAF is looking like it’s alive

[tdbowieknife]

Still no drilling results from the last well they drilled.

Come on Recon.


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[dounome]

What is going on here.

[rex82]

Newest Version of Short Report

https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/d53afaf0-187c-44a8-8c07-0d41fde346bb/downloads/Short%20Report%2015%20Sep%2022.jpg?ver=1664561552853

[tdbowieknife]

Yes... I sure wish Recaf would provide more info.


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[rex82]

Potential Flare up on site
https://www.reddit.com/r/ReconAfrica/comments/xqwigm/reconafrica_82_well_possible_flaring_detected/

[dounome]

what up recon

[tdbowieknife]

They're taking to long with drilling results. Folks are suspicious


Come on RECAF...


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[dounome]

Are we going to move up here. Oil what a waste.

[tdbowieknife]

Folks got pumped about a big oil find then didn't get a PR about it.. Traders disappointed and afraid there won't be enough chairs to sit in.


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[redrabbit]

Not sure many people are selling. Looks manipulated / shorting to me. Evidence is is it only takes a few days to recover most of the drop. The recent climb above $4.50 USD showed that. Rumor is big news is coming before Oct 5th, potentially next week. If that is true, you will be shocked how fast this will shoot up.

You don’t open your data room and then schedule yourself to talk at one of the largest African conferences on oil and gas if you have a dry hole.

[tdbowieknife]

I can't believe folks are selling now. Pretty sure they're going to regret it.


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[rex82]

Most recent updated Short Report Article!

https://www.reddit.com/r/ReconAfrica/comments/xfwf07/reconafrica_short_interest_update_for_83122_short/

[Scarbender307]

Heh, heh... I feel your pain. I'm an Africa Oil shareholder for 12 years. Now after all this time finally showing promise with buybacks, dividends and accretive investments, and possible farm outs. We have almost no debt and growing cash flows. Kenya was a huge promise for many of us years ago when they discovered a lot of oil. Over time, wells were drilled, oil discovered and first oil was trucked to the storage refineries in Mombasa.

Problem was, geo-political and environmental with a pipeline needed to direct oil to the port of Lamu. /Africa oil share of pipeline cost is about $800,000,000. We are looking for a partner. A lot of hope and prayer here.

Other than discovery, can some of you oil gents direct me to several catalysts that would convey urgency for an investment here. Don't tell me about discovery; that is obvious. Africa oil has six catalysts and p/s is moving very slowly.

Thanks in advance.

[tdbowieknife]

And of course soon after I say that it drops back 30% of the days gains.



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[dounome]

I would say sooooo!

[tdbowieknife]

Something good has leaked...

Weeeeeeee


Lol


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[choo choo trader]

So far so good! RECAF holding strong today in this market blood bath.

[tdbowieknife]

Folks smelling oil..

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[dounome]

Lets go ,Recaf

[tdbowieknife]

RECO News: RECONAFRICA LAUNCHES JOINT VENTURE PROCESS FOR KAVANGO BASIN

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/TSXV/RECO/stock-news/89018514/reconafrica-launches-joint-venture-process-for-kav

News from September 8th. We need to post the news here ourselves as the Canadian news service Reconnaissance Energy is using does not carry over to the header of this board.


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[dounome]

It's getting hot in here.

[choo choo trader]

Here's a link to the article. It's only a matter of time now before we start getting offers for cost-sharing or farm-out agreements. IMO. I hope our first deal struck is from a well-known major operator.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/reconafrica-launches-joint-venture-process-for-kavango-basin-883488077.html

[tdbowieknife]

Recon has opened the data room...

Good luck folks.

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[rex82]

A New seeking Alpha article was published recently;

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538802-reconnaissance-energy-8-2-well-results-h1-2022-earnings-support-buy

[Amatuer17]

Thanks

[choo choo trader]

Here you go! The statement of oil flow is starting at the 3:10 mark. https://stocktwits.com/mfulkerson/message/482769551

[Amatuer17]

Seems RECAF is following the pattern

[Amatuer17]

Recaf typically does not go up so fast - it comes down next day

[Amatuer17]

The video is long - can you tell at what time he mentions it?

[couldbebetter]

"If" that is accurate information it would certainly destroy the short narrative
and would most certainly pique the interest of potential JV partners. Strange
that RECAF would "leak" the hint of flowing oil & gas in such a conference
without it being including in the drilling press release. The share price (at least)
in indicating that some RECAF investors are excited about something. My thinking
is to hold my RECAF shares until the mid teens.

[choo choo trader]

Shorts got hammered today! News slipped out today at the Mining and Expo Conference."We've made discoveries of oil and gas in the Kavango basin. We've got oil which flow there." - Robert Mwanachilenga, General Manager, Reconnaissance Energy Namibia. Closed at HOD 3.63 up .97 = 36.5%. Tomorrow will be fun if this run continues.

https://scontent-atl3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t66.36281-6/10000000_846615216279299_1356021521380483201_n.mp4?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=985c63&efg=eyJybHIiOjgwMSwicmxhIjo0MDk2LCJ2ZW5jb2RlX3RhZyI6Im9lcF9zZCJ9&_nc_ohc=oUfE4V2ZCBUAX-2Lcz3&rl=801&vabr=445&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-2.xx&oh=00_AT8tBxgDoBjX_NdnC7AdPOUanLJJKKR5HyMU7JGktddGIw&oe=6315B23A

[tdbowieknife]

Much better trading today..


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[couldbebetter]

My take on the press release is that it was intentionally "gray" leaving open the
big question of what the well discovered, Why would RECAF do this? Maybe
they have a good reason for not yet disclosing what they found. Perhaps they
do not want to incite the enviro-wackos, or maybe the government wants the
results out in a particular way, Perhaps they want to solidify a deal with a JV
partner before results are made public. In any case I plan to sell my stake once
it gets into the teens. For now I plan to sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.
Obviously, the news will be out sooner or later...if along the way I pick up a
few more shares at opportune times so much the better.

[rex82]

Another good read;

If anyone thinks that the supermajors aren’t watching, think again. They are fully aware of what ReconAfrica is doing in onshore Namibia. Briget Venner of ExxonMobil Exploration Namibia and vice chairperson of Namibia Petroleum Operators Association (NAMPOA) – “Recent activity highlights the potential for commercial oil and gas developments,” she said naming the Kudu gas fiel, both Shell and Total discoveries which are in appraisal, and ReconAfrica’s onland exploration activities.” https://www.erongo.com.na/focus-mining/namibia%E2%80%99s-search-for-oil2022-08-3024445

[tdbowieknife]

Yes... But likely still won't be good for the PPS. Hopefully its more than a dry hole.


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[rex82]

This week should be very interesting regardless.

[rex82]

They didn't release anything off the TD news release for the 6- 2 well either. We waited a week while they analyzed data and then they reported. Expect the same with this well

[tdbowieknife]

They reached TD and no mention of what was found if anything.

Not good for the PPS.

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/TSXV/RECO/stock-news/88948395/reconafrica-and-namcor-successfully-reach-total-de

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[Nightdaytrader]

RECAF might also be in negotiations with other companies and needs to be careful in what they say about their well findings. RECAF is definitely being watched. Just look at this 8/30/2022 article and specifically, this phrase, from Exxon's Briget Venner of ExxonMobil Exploration Namibia and vice chairperson of Namibia Petroleum Operators Association (NAMPOA): "..... .... Recent activity highlights the potential for commercial oil and gas developments,” she said naming the Kudu gas fiel, both Shell and Total discoveries which are in appraisal, and ReconAfrica’s onland exploration activities..... ....."

https://www.erongo.com.na/focus-mining/namibia%E2%80%99s-search-for-oil2022-08-3024445

[rex82]

They hit all geological targets as reported. On time and on budget. They hit oil imo, like they did in 6-2. Will get an update in a week or two.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/reconafrica-and-namcor-successfully-reach-total-depth-of-the-8-2-well-on-time-amp-on-budget-861670348.html

[dounome]

They will find it soon. The force is with me.

[tdbowieknife]

This is trading like they are drilling a dry hole.

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[couldbebetter]

What will be telling is the structure of any JV partnerships. Will a JV partner
be allowed to buy-in a chunk of RECAF shares? How much activity will a JV
partner be responsible for? Given the offshore discoveries, Namibia will have
a great deal of future wealth. An onshore discovery can be brought into production
much faster...Would not the government want everything to move as fast as
possible? A commercial oil discovery that proves up the existence of a "basin"
that contains commercial amounts of hydrocarbons would result in a share price
in the mid-teens, and from there who knows? My guess is that RECAF would
likely agree a BO as the government of Namibia would prefer that ownership
at some point. I am invested here and may buy more especially if the price
hits a new 52 week low.

[Newhenge]

Thank You! Very interesting article...

[tdbowieknife]

SHORT SELLERS FACE SIGNIFICANT RISKS IN THE WEEKS & MONTHS AHEAD

Given the size of their short position, there are several high-impact events that could quickly result in share price increases that could put the short sellers in a precarious position. These include the following:

1 – The 8-2 Makandina (P33) well, which is being drilled based on seismically defined traps, was spud on 6/25/22 with an estimated completion date of 45-60 days. Results from this well could be made available any day now.

2 – In his recent presentation at Enercom in Denver, Scot Evans announced that the JV data room will be opened in Q3 2022 (within 37 days of this post). With three more wells, a sidetrack of 6-2, and another round of seismic scheduled for the fall, many in the investor community view this as bullish. The reason for this is that logic dictates that ReconAfrica would not open the data room if they didn’t have anything to show to potential JV partners. By the time the data room is open, ReconAfrica should have the results of 8-2 in addition to the fully interpreted second round of 2D seismic, and they have certainly seen preliminary results that have not been shared with the public at this point in time.

3 – Recent attempts to derail ReconAfrica have failed. A challenge to the permitting process was ruled in ReconAfrica’s favor by the high court on 7/29/22. ReconAfrica has also received a three-year extension to its Environmental Clearance Certificate (the “ECC”), from the Office of the Environmental Commissioner, Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism of the Republic of Namibia on 8/17/22. ReconAfrica now faces no foreseeable obstacles to future exploration, and satellite imagery confirms that preparations are continuing at a breakneck pace on the upcoming 3-1 and 2-7/5-1 well sites (see my previous posts on satellite images).

4 – Short sellers face additional risks if any of the aforementioned events triggers interest from commercial or institutional investors. Currently, retail investors hold the majority of shares, but this could change at any time.

LONG-TERM INVESTORS HAVE SIGNIFICANT PROTECTION AGAINST ADVERSE EVENTS

Negative results from the 8-2 well would certainly have a negative effect on the share price, but there are several factors that provide a cushion to long-term investors. These include the following:

1 – The results from the 8-2 well are not binary. ReconAfrica holds leases in Namibia and Botswana that encompass 8.5 million acres. Following 8-2, ReconAfrica intends to drill three more wells, run a sidetrack on the original 6-2 well, and obtain a third round of seismic acquisition. With significant cash on hand, ReconAfrica is fully-funded for these projects. Furthermore, the Netherland Sewell report issued earlier this year states that “prospective resources” (P50, 18% recovery) are estimated to be 1 billion barrels of oil and 1.4 TcF of natural gas, and this was based on two test wells and the first round of seismic. Regardless of the results, this is a very large basin with significant potential. An adverse result on 8-2 will not cause the share price to drop to zero.

2 – Short sellers still need to cover to make a profit. With 5,523,609 shares shorted, short sellers will find it difficult to repurchase shares to cover their sizable short position without driving the share price higher. Even with negative results from 8-2, they may not be able to cover, with the desired profitably, by the time the next well reaches total depth.

PERSONAL COMMENTARY

At this point, I do not understand what the short sellers are thinking. Selling short is like selling uncovered call options. It has limited upside potential and unlimited downside potential. At the current share price, short sellers hit the point of diminishing marginal returns a long time ago, but they inexplicably continue to borrow and sell. While they have proven that they can cause a decrease in the share price, they have done so at a great cost to themselves (interest expense, risk, etc.). Even if their dreams come true and the stock price falls to zero, the amount they will make is not nearly enough to offset the enormous risk they are taking. As a long-term investor, I believe that they are laying the groundwork for an incredible rebound in the event of positive results.

The stacked area graph below charts the change in short interest since it hit a low point of 94,930 shares as reported on 3/31/21. Since then, short interest now stands at 5,523,609, a staggering 5,719% increase.

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[rex82]

This is a good read; short interest update. Enjoy!
https://www.reddit.com/r/ReconAfrica/comments/wxg64t/reconafrica_short_interest_update_9th_consecutive/