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$Real Estate Trump King; PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP RALLY LIVE IN COMMERCE, GA 3/26/22
by RSBN March 17, 2022
https://rsbnetwork.com/video/president-donald-trump-rally-live-in-commerce-ga-3-26-22/
Saturday, March 26, 2022: Join the RSBN team LIVE from Commerce, GA
for all day coverage of President Donald J. Trump’s SAVE AMERICA rally.
President Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States of
America, will hold a rally in Commerce, Georgia, on Saturday, March 26,
2022, at 7:00PM EST.
Saturday, March 26, 2022, at 7:00PM EST President Donald J. Trump, 45th
President of the United States of America, Delivers Remarks in support
of David Perdue Candidate for Governor, Herschel Walker Candidate for
U.S. Senate, and other endorsed candidates.
Venue: Banks County Dragway (Formally NHRA International Dragway) 500
East Ridgeway Road Commerce, GA 30529
Timeline of Events: 8:00AM – Parking and Line Opens 2:00PM – Doors Open
and Entertainment Begins 4:00PM – Pre-program Speakers Deliver Remarks
7:00PM – 45th President of the United States Donald J. Trump Delivers
Remarks
Point Roberts Safety; Are you in safe area or you don't want it; Things Are Escalating Very Quickly!
https://youtu.be/ggQzxPWCpgc
Game Changer in housing....everyone is viewing this as bad but this is the only thing I can find that views housing starts numbers as "good." Bottom line, supply is ridiculous right now
Crescenzi: Game Changer In Housing Numbers
Posted By: Tony Crescenzi
Topics:Economy (U.S.) | Economy (Global) | Recession | Mortgages | Housing | Credit
Tony Crescenzi
Chief Bond Market Strategist
Miller Tabak + Co
Housing starts fell to a new record low in January, falling to an annualized pace of 466k from 560k in December.
Importantly, housing completions fell a record 24.2% to a record low 776k annualized rate, the first reading below 1.0 million since 1982. The is extremely important because until now builders were still completing homes at a pace too strong for current conditions, preventing inventory levels from falling more rapidly than they recently have. Now that fewer homes are hitting the market for sale, the growing U.S. population will have fewer homes to choose from. This will accelerate the recent decline in home inventories. Have no doubt: this is a game changer for inventories and prices.
Doubters on the inventory idea will surely point to the difficulties that prospective homeowners face in obtaining credit to purchase homes. In doing so they will ignore the most important top-down concept, which is to compare the net change in the housing stock to population growth and household formation.
The concept is simple: a basic element of human survival is shelter and the need for shelter increases along with the population. Housing starts have now fallen to levels well below what is needed to support population growth. Whether people can afford to purchase a home or obtain the credit necessary to do so is not as important as the fact that they need shelter and will rent space if necessary. The bottom-line is that empty homes will become occupied one way or another so long as builders under-build relative to population growth.
Housing Plan: $275 Billion to Help 9 Million Families
Keep in mind the key metrics: the U.S. population increases by about 3 million per year. Household formation will average 1.2 million per year, although it tends to slow during recessions for obvious reasons. Eventually, however, people will do the inevitable and get their own space (note: the amount of births in 2007 was the most in 1957 in the U.S.). Housing starts are running at a record low pace of 466k, which yields very few new shelters, say 300k or so, as many of the homes started are re-starts, homes rebuilt following damage from teardowns, and storms and such. Comparing the figure to population growth and household formation makes one thing clear: inventories are headed down.
Inventories are already falling. For new homes, the decline in unsold homes was the most ever in December and at 359k the tally is 211k below the June 2006 peak and very close to normal. For older homes, which tend to lag, inventories have fallen from a peak of 4.575 million in July to 3.676 million in December (this figure is likely to either be revised up a bit or be followed by an increase). Importantly, this progress occurred while housing completions remained high. Now that they have fallen, the decline in inventories will accelerate and with it change the dynamic on prices and the whole ball game, basically.
I'm starting to see a slight increase in home sales around my neck of the woods....NASHVILLE....I'm not sure the exact numbers but I will try and get them....maybe it's just me and my business but I was seeing a good deal of "movement" in the housing market
No problem, if you need any help with anything let me know.
Thanks that heiped me with something.
That person is a good asset to the team, however, I can do all of what that person did, i could realize higher profits.
that makes sense too or just hold all the profits until you can find somebody to "dispose of the situation"....I know some guys who own a pig farm....lol kidding
True, however i don't feel as if i will do business with this person again. Don't know yet. I think i will just hold 15% from the profit and then split it.
L.L.C. or a business entity would fix that right?
I need a little bit of advise, for those willing to answer.
I have taken on a partner, in real estate investing and was wondering how to deal with the capital gains tax that will be all on me because the properties are always in my name however we split profits.
If any one has any ideas they are welcome.
You could go to rentometer.com
well, it's generally the association between buying a house and renting a house. When prices climb really high, the potential buyer is better off renting the house in most cases.
Renting cost = rent - potential interest/returns on the downpayment money
Buying cost = payment, taxes, insurance, mantinence + potential interest/returns on downpayment money - appreciation - money saved on tax incentives (interest on payment)
these are general formulas to compare the two, and what was happening is the purchase price/value was getting so high affecting the payment but the rent was not increasing.....in a perfect economic world, I guess these two should be somewhat close to each other or raise at the same rate
so, part of the "formula" for rental prices is that they need to be below the buying cost to draw people in....the other part involves people who don't have the downpayment to buy. This was not an issue with 100% loans or whatever in recent years. That created a huge amount of people buying, raising the demand of housing. People who SHOULD have been renting skipped over to the buying side in huge numbers. Now, these same people are jumping back to the rent side while causing less demand on buying houses.
IMO, the rent cost will increase and the buying cost will decrease until they get somewhat close and then we will see what the next cycle is! lol
Is there a formula for that, what actually determines rental prices.
tell me about it..short sales can be nightmares! are you investing in real estate or do you work in real estate??? several of my friends around here are buying up property right and left....money will flow back into it because imo, money will always feel safe in real estate.....just ask the people long on gold and oil right now!
Many of the short sales have turned to REO's! This makes home buying easy for the frustrated buyers. Volume has increased as a result across the area but prices are still softening further. Overall economy / employment not good. However with new lending laws coming into effect on Jan 1 '09, Buyers over 600 - 650k would be wise to close by EOY or face lending nightmare
Just closed a short sale that took 4.5 monjths to get answer from my sellers lender! One of the few to get approved so I should not complain!
home prices should get in line with current rental prices which is why they are coming down just like a stock....too much speculation/investors
Foreclosures up, defaults down
ForeclosureRadar.com estimates that California homes are foreclosing at a rate of 1,300 per business day. And the drop in defaults is not very promising.
August 17, 2008
Banks and lenders have now foreclosed on $100 billion worth of California homes over the last two years and are foreclosing at the rate of 1,300 houses every business day, according to a new report from ForeclosureRadar.com.
The report, which covers foreclosure activity in California in July, says that new mortgage defaults are declining but foreclosures are continuing to rise sharply. "It is clear that far fewer homeowners are finding a way out of foreclosure," the company reports.
The pace of foreclosures in California has more than tripled from the year-ago rate of 415 per day, ForeclosureRadar estimates. Overall, the level of foreclosures in the state increased 22.5% from June to July, while the level of defaults dropped by 4.6% in the same period. The vast majority of foreclosed homes are taken over by banks -- 96.6% in July, the company reports, although it notes that banks are increasingly offering discounts to investors in hopes of avoiding taking possession of foreclosed houses in the first place.
"Although the declines in notices of defaults seem promising, much of this can be explained by the actions of just one lender," said Sean O'Toole, founder of ForeclosureRadar. "Ninety-one percent of the decline in notices of default since April can be attributed to Countrywide Financial. Unfortunately, this is more likely due to the challenges of integrating two companies the size of Countrywide Financial and Bank of America than it is a fundamental shift in foreclosure activity."
--
Peter Viles
Checking the status of ARMs
One lingering question in the discussion about when the housing bubble will fully deflate is the status of numerous adjustable-rate mortgages yet to reset. The magnitude of defaults in this subset of loans is expected to weigh heavily on the timing of the market bottom.
How many of these loans will default remains to be seen, but I recently came across one property that seems like an apt case study of the problem.
The house is now on the market for $875,000. The current owner bought it in 2006 for $898,000.
The agent said the owners had yet to miss a mortgage payment but were soon facing a rate reset that they could not afford. The house has been on the market seven months.
If no one steps forward to buy the house at a price high enough to bail out the owners, default and foreclosure are the next steps. Since they haven't missed payments yet, the foreclosure process won't conclude until sometime next year. If there are many more cases like this one, we'll see more foreclosures piling up in the inventory next year.
--
Peter Y. Hong
Can immigrants ease the surplus?
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is arguing that the most effective solution to the housing downturn is for the United States to admit more "skilled immigrants" who would earn enough to buy houses and stabilize the housing market.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal published Wednesday, the 82-year-old economist estimates there are 800,000 units of "excess supply" housing for sale in the United States.
From the Journal: "He did offer one suggestion: 'The most effective initiative, though politically difficult, would be a major expansion in quotas for skilled immigrants,' he said. The only sustainable way to increase demand for vacant houses is to spur the formation of new households. Admitting more skilled immigrants, who tend to earn enough to buy homes, would accomplish that while paying other dividends to the U.S. economy.
"He estimates the number of new households in the U.S. currently is increasing at an annual rate of about 800,000, of whom about one-third are immigrants. 'Perhaps 150,000 of those are loosely classified as skilled,' he said. 'A double or tripling of this number would markedly accelerate the absorption of unsold housing inventory for sale -- and hence help stabilize prices.' "
--
Peter Viles
A trend in homes underwater
The latest home value estimates from Zillow.com contain an interesting set of numbers on Los Angeles-area homes that are underwater -- that is, more is owed on the mortgages than the houses are worth.
Only about 1% of L.A-area homes purchased in 2003 have negative equity, Zillow reports. But a bell curve emerges, with 24% of homes purchased in 2004 now underwater. The peak year for home purchases that are now in negative equity was 2006 -- 71% of homes purchased then are now upside-down. About 56% of homes purchased in 2007 have negative equity.
The negative-equity percentage falls to 13% in 2008, tied to the sharp drop in home prices. Buyers are now making median down payments of 20% of the purchase price, Zillow reports, up from a 10% median down payment in 2007 and a 5% median in 2006.
Here is an interesting link from a poster on another board, dick milde i believe
http://www.zillow.com/reports/RealEstateMarketReports.htm
how are things shaping up in SoCal these days in the RE market??
Some builders around Nashville are having issues like everywhere else....imo, tons of wealth is changing hands before our very eyes in real estate
Comparing the housing "bust" to the Japanese Situation, while it might be a an interesting topic to discuss at dinner, seems like apples and oranges. It's too different to even compare. I just keep seeing these comparisons in different places and just don't think it can be used except to analyze exactly what were the favorite drugs (crack or opium) of the people determining the Japanese monetary policy at the time! lol
Look at this chart chartists!
All I am saying is that the 10 stagnant years were brought on by a macro policy that would cripple ANY COUNTRY at ANYTIME imo
They basically jacked up the interest rates over 200% in the span of a year or so trying to simmer-down the speculation or whatever in housing and stocks.....looks like it worked....then they decided to KEEP increasing rates increasing (wow)
Of course, the crash happens and correction occurs so they decide to drop the interest rates at terminal velocity! (wow again)
Take any Economy and then in a 3 year span increase interest rates 200% or so then decrease them back to original level....if that doesn't produce a massive 10 year stagnant, no confidence, zero foreign investment economy, I don't know what will!!
U.S. banks may keep credit tight even in GSE bailout
Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:09pm EDT Email | Print | Share| Reprints | Single Page | Recommend (0) [-] Text [+]
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$0 stock trades. 10 free per month.By Jonathan Stempel - analysis
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A government bailout of Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) could help support battered shares of major banks, but might not spur lenders to extend more credit as the U.S. housing market deteriorates.
Fannie and Freddie, known as government-sponsored enterprises, own or guarantee almost half of all U.S. mortgages. The government relies on them to help stabilize what is often deemed the worst housing market since the Great Depression.
"It's a mistake to think a bailout of Fannie and Freddie is going to cause a sigh of relief by lending officers and for them to loosen credit," said Bill Hackney, managing partner of Atlanta Capital Management Co. "Damage to balance sheets has already been substantial."
Deterioration in housing and credit markets has already weighed on banks' shares.
The KBW Bank Index .BKX and Standard & Poor's Financials Index are down roughly 30 percent this year. Shares of big mortgage lenders such as Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Wachovia Corp (WB.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Washington Mutual Inc (WM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) are down even more.
And Fannie and Freddie shares have slid well over 90 percent in the last year.
A federal law enacted in July gave the government broad authority to pump billions of dollars into the GSEs.
Speculation about what the government could do has included guaranteeing new Fannie and Freddie debt and preferred stock, buying such securities outright, or privatizing the companies.
"If the GSEs have adequate capital, it would be a plus for the banking sector and the economy," said Marshall Front, chairman of Front Barnett Associates LLC in Chicago.
Many of the proposals suggest holders of Fannie and Freddie "triple-A" rated senior debt would be well-protected; not so holders of their common and perhaps preferred stock.
And with their shares having lost most of their value, raising new equity capital would be tough.
Richard Hofmann, a CreditSights Inc analyst, in a report late Tuesday suggested the government "would rather stabilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in their current form, and then gradually layer in more restrictive capital requirements and other regulatory oversight."
But tighter limits on Fannie and Freddie could pressure a banking sector already changed by the housing slump.
"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac let (banks) write more loans than they would have otherwise," said James McGlynn, portfolio manager for Summit Investment Partners in Southlake, Texas.
With a collapse of much of the securitization market, where home loans were packaged into securities, banks can no longer count on finding buyers for their mortgages. This can force those banks to keep more loans on their balance sheets.
TOO TIGHT?
One result: lending is now more cautious. This means tighter terms, higher borrowing costs and lower affordability of homes. These factors could prolong the housing slump.
Indeed, a quarterly Federal Reserve survey of senior loan officers showed banks broadly tightened lending standards, especially in consumer loans, in the April to June period.
"When times were good, banks were too loose on lending standards," Hackney said. "Now that times are bad, they're getting too tight. Banks are passing on a lot of good loans."
U.S. mortgage originations from January to June totaled just $910 billion, down 35.5 percent from a year earlier, according to the newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance.
At Washington Mutual, which has projected some $19 billion of mortgage losses through 2011, loan volume sank 63 percent.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said U.S. home mortgage applications last week were the lowest since December 2000. Refinancing demand is just one-fourth what it was in March.
For big loan servicers such as Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Citigroup and Washington Mutual, the picture is mixed.
Fewer refinancings mean servicers benefit longer from the income streams generated by loans. But as home prices keep falling, more of the loans can go into default or foreclosure.
Compounding these problems is the expectation that falling home values will weigh further on other forms of consumer credit, such as credit card and auto loans, as well as on construction and other loans dependent on real estate.
And some banks own Fannie and Freddie preferred stock directly. If that falls in value, write-offs could follow.
Front said bank stocks look "attractive" relative to earnings prospects in a year or two. He said stabilizing Fannie and Freddie could help cap future credit write-downs by banks.
"Banks are setting aside substantial additional reserves, as they should, for deterioration and growing delinquencies in credit cards, commercial real estate -- you name it," he said.
"Have bank stocks adequately discounted the degree to which bank earnings will be impacted over the next six to 12 months by these trends? That is the big question."
(Additional reporting by Al Yoon, editing by Richard Chang)
The Short sale does take a long time, but with as much inventory on the market, you can just make a crazy offer and see if they take it. Some of the Homes that are pre-foreclosure
were just built in the last year.
I am doing this north of Tampa Fl.
where was this exactly? area/city?? that seems like a freakin' good deal on any part of a real estate wave
With all the foreclosures in FL i picked up 2 Brand NEW 3bdr 2bath 2 car garage for 100k Gives me a huge possiblities
I'll tell you where we need to be buying real estate and that's Argentina! prices are still pretty good imo, just got back from a trip there......
thinking about turning liquid and buying a hunting ranch down there! lol seriously though....it would be a good deal imo
The good about the market down there the 1k sq feet homes are being thrown away at $50k-80k 2-3bdrm 2bath easy to rent and make profits.
ouch, that has to hurt a little....it will almost be like FORECLOSURES will be a new norm for people if they keep going like this. Something will happen to get these people in a house or fix their credit. Having a Foreclosure in the past won't be handled the same way anymore because of the increase in the number of people with them. They just don't need to get crazy with it like the past few years!
My friend, in 2006 bought a 5bd 3bath 3 car garage for 275k now the same house across the street i can buy for 140k...,. it ridiculous..... Hey but better for me.
I think the worst of Florida is pretty much over...it's just a mass of houses on the market like you say too much supply
heck, that just makes it easier on the buyer though....you can get what you want i assume
Fannie lowers down payments
The government-sponsored mortgage financier says it will require between 3% and 5% for all loans it guarantees.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Fannie Mae is doing away with higher minimum down-payment requirements for borrowers in parts of the country where home prices are dropping.
The government-sponsored mortgage finance company said Friday it will require minimum down payments of between 3% and 5% for all loans that it guarantees. That replaces a December policy that required a higher minimum if the loan was for a home in a zip code with declining real estate prices.
Washington-based Fannie (FNM, Fortune 500) says the move is part of its effort to help resuscitate the flagging mortgage market.
Fannie Mae and its smaller sibling, Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500), had been under intense pressure to relax lending policies that had been tightened in recent months as foreclosures and defaults skyrocketed.
Richard Gaylord, president of the National Association of Realtors, said in an April letter to Fannie Mae, that because the health of a housing market can differ widely -- even in the same zip code -- in a particular neighborhood can differ widely, neighborhoods with healthy housing markets are often stigmatized.
Gaylord applauded the decision on Friday. "These new policies will help stabilize the credit markets, which will help encourage buyers to come back into the housing market," he said in a statement.
A Freddie Mac spokesman said the McLean, Va.-based company earlier this month adjusted its policies to make 5 percent down payments available in declining markets. Rather than defining those markets by zip code, Freddie Mac allows appraisers to make that determination, he said.
The announcement comes as lawmakers near a bipartisan agreement on a housing bill that could bring stricter regulation for the two companies. Senators are considering tapping a fund drawn from Fannie and Freddie's profits to pay for a new foreclosure-prevention program.
Congress created Fannie and Freddie to pump money into the home-mortgage market by buying home loans from banks and other lenders and bundling them into securities for sale on Wall Street. Together they hold or guarantee about $5.1 trillion in home-mortgage debt.
Fannie Mae shares fell $80 cents, or 2.60%, to $29.45 in morning trading. Shares of Freddie Mac fell 70 cents, or 2.57%, to $26.57.
First Published: May 16, 2008: 9:17 AM EDT
Elusive housing bill inches forward
Why more homeowners aren't getting help
I Have my house on the market,
I will be buying a house in the declining market.(Florida)
This will be my 4th house.
Granted the NY homes have held their increases they had previously made. In 3 years 37k increase in price on the current house.
The bad part of Fl is the amount of people renting has increased. So you can make good money in income properties. All the people foreclosing have to live somwhere. The amount of homes on the market in FL is INSANE... you pretty much have choice.
that's to be expected everywhere imo
I have read some things where Dallas is holding up pretty well and prices are predicted to increase in the future...amazing
all depends on population, jobs, and control of the speculation it seems like
Upstate NY is just starting to feel the pinch, with a huge supply on the market, people are dropping prices to sell.
I am in Nashville, TN
different than So. Cal. but it's still feeling the downward pressure like in other places
not as much though
CTD where is "there"
that's a good analysis....I am in agreement with the timeline....mid to late 2009 will be an interesting turn of events
these banks are probably going to open up real estate firms themselves to handle the mass number of houses they have for sale
they will be selling these pretty darn cheap if they want to get rid of them
with the short sales, it's few and far between that they actually go through around here. There are still many but the time it takes to get through the banks, these will end up as REO's as well
see post # 10. I'm in Orange County right between LA & San diego. We've lost over 10% YTD. 95% of all props here under $550,000 are REO's or Short Sales. Hard to even find an equity based seller under that price.
Short Sales taking over 3 months wait from seller's lender tells me the SS's will all be REO's sooner or later. Watching also to see if foreclosure notices begin to increase into the summer months from rate resets earlier in the year.
This time next year will be key time to watch.
what do you think will happen??
I've got friends around here, Nashville, TN that have negotiated better terms on their mortgage with just a phone call.
they dropped it down from an Adjustable Rate to 6%, 30 year fixed
just wondering if that was going on elsewhere
in so cal I'm down approx 180 to 200k in value
Just got back from Miami and stayed at the Fountaine Bleau for a steal of a deal.....Sorrento Tower just opened and it is niiice and I'm guessing owners of the units are trying everything they can to break even on that investment
while I was there, met a couple from L.A. and their house is now worth 100k less than when they bought it 2 years ago
needless to say he was a little disturbed by the real estate market! lol
who isn't these days though
not to defend the government by any means but wasn't the BIG problem coming from Wall Street and hedge funds loading up on these HIGH RISK packaged loans.
Sure the government could have stepped in but THE STREET shouldn't have been gobbling up these like crazy
take, Merrill Lynch right now.....that past CEO went crazy with these sub-prime loans
several banks did the same it looks like
i guess they were playing "sub-prime" musical chairs and there certainly wasn't many chairs!! lol
Hey Pat, you hit that one right in the bullseye.
tell me about it....honestly, I worked with a few loans a couple of years ago and I couldn't beleive the thngs people could get. Indeed, everyone plays a role in a situation like this.....the government, individulas, brokers, bankers, Wall Street etc., and I will tell you I got a loan for somebody that was a 125% LOAN!
yes, 125% of their property value! The fact that the loan even existed is disturbing not to mention loans like the NO DOC, Stated Income/Asset, and all those products they used. I saw it then that this could not last!
People were buying houses with zero money in their bank accounts and zero downpayment.
The next year or so will be very interesting especially with. like you say, the next wave of REO's
yes, in my area, they certainly haven't dropped but they very well might with more and more rental properties being available
I'm guessing the rentals along the beach areas and "second home" rentals people purchased will feel the downward pressure of the rental market
For example: I am going to Miami (South Beach) this weekend and I have found a condo/hotel to stay in through an individual. He has just cut his prices 50% per night so now I'm staying in a nice 4-5 star type place for 50% less than I would a few months ago. That might be what that market faces
Well the loss of ridiculous easy to get mortgages created and allowed by none other than our Federal gov since last summer has been the real killer to the bloated RE market, the "if you could fog a mirror your approved " loans are now gone.
Terms beginning to ease again, howeverr there is still another huge wave of REO's to hit the market by EOY '08. When they dry up spring / summer '09 in my opinion will be key pivotal point to look for and possibly the time to pounce.
OH, nice board idea.
Good idea, prices are down, but rental prices haven't dropped any, that I can see anyway.
how about rental properties?? if there is some Democrat that gets elected this year....rentals have been proven to be worth the "tax shelter" benefit during their time in office!
say hello to more taxes!
a good idea indeed
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