Real Estate Investments

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HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!

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Nice, I hope things get back that way.
A lot less stress.

[PegnVA]

I sold in NJ in '05, while the market was still hot - listed early Dec and had a buyer by Dec 28th, with the stipulation to close by end Feb...listing during the holidays was no problem THEN.

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Good Morning, I hope it does not take you as long to sell your house as it did me. It took me over a year.

[PegnVA]

"...on the market for almost three months now..." - Isn't this possibly the worst time of the year to sell a home (holidays), add to that current economic conditions and it's very tough.
Regarding pro/con to an Open House - in the past I was advised the only person who "wins" in an Open House is the agent, who gets a fresh list of prospective clients looking for a house.
Northern VA is quite possibly the best place to locate given all the gov't jobs avail and people moving in/out as admins change. Also, those plastic boxes are used in my mid-VA area but many times it's just neighbors who take a copy to see what their neighbor is offering and for how much (with the value of their own property in mind).

This is an interesting Board.

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Good Morning

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Your 2009 Real Estate Outlook
Weiss Research
Mike Larson
Dec. 26, 2008

Millions of homeowners and commercial property owners are going to ask that all-important question:

Will 2009 be “it” — the year when things finally start turning around?

I wish I could say I was optimistic.

But the evidence I’m weighing points to another disappointing year. Indeed, I expect 2009 to be marked by lackluster sales and falling prices in the residential arena, and a deepening crisis on the commercial side of the ledger.

Housing Bottom? Not That I Can See



Despite government intervention and despite cutbacks in new construction, the fact remains that supply far exceeds demand.
Despite government intervention and despite cutbacks in new construction, the fact remains that supply far exceeds demand.

The Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve are doing all they can to lower mortgage rates and stem foreclosures. There’s just one problem: All the government money and manipulation in the world can’t repeal the law of supply and demand.

The overall housing market remains dramatically oversupplied, despite very sharp cutbacks in new home construction. Moreover, demand remains weak due to slumping consumer confidence, tighter lending standards, and rising unemployment. That means anyone looking to Washington for a quick fix to this downturn is going to be disappointed.

Just consider the latest numbers …

star Your 2009 Real Estate OutlookNew home sales dropped 2.9% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407,000. That was the worst sales rate since January 1991, and down more than 35% from a year earlier. Existing home sales plunged 8.6% for the month, with single family sales hitting the lowest level in more than 11 years.

star Your 2009 Real Estate OutlookWhile dramatic cutbacks in housing starts have led to a decline in the raw number of new homes on the market, sales have dropped so much that we’re seeing little net progress overall. Case in point: There were 11.5 months worth of new homes on the market based on the November sales pace. That was only slightly below October’s 11.8 months, which itself was the worst reading ever (Census data goes back to 1963).

On the existing side, we have more than 4.2 million homes on the market — far above the 2 million to 2.5 million considered normal. That’s good for 11.2 months of supply, tying April’s record high.

star Your 2009 Real Estate OutlookAs far as pricing is concerned, you won’t find any solace in the latest figures. New home prices were down 11.5% from a year earlier, the second-biggest decline ever. Existing home prices dropped 13.2%, the most on record. The median price of a used home is now hovering around $181,300, meaning we have wiped out every penny of gains generated since February 2004.


Existing Median Home Price

Don’t be surprised to see the government get even more aggressive next year. We could get tax credits designed to stimulate home buying on top of the direct manipulation of the mortgage backed securities market we’re already seeing.

But until fundamental equilibrium is restored in the housing market — until we work through the vast inventory overhang of houses — home prices aren’t going to stop falling. In fact, I’m expecting further declines throughout 2009.

Commercial R.E. Joining Residential In the Penalty Box

The residential real estate business started slowing in 2006, and then really fell out of bed in 2007. But commercial real estate continued chugging along for a while. That’s all changing — and 2009 will likely be even worse for landlords and investors in warehouse, office, or retail property and related securities.

Just consider …

* Construction activity is starting to tank as commercial mortgage credit dries up and the economy slumps. An American Institute of Architects (AIA) index, which serves as a great leading indicator for commercial construction since you need to design a building before you build it, just plunged to a record low of 34.7.


AIA Work on the Boards Billing Index

* With credit tighter, commercial real estate sales and prices are now following home prices lower. The final numbers haven’t been added up yet. But it appears that commercial sales plunged by about 70% between 2007 and 2008.

* Meanwhile, the Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index dropped 2.4% in October, the tenth month out of the last 14 where it declined. Prices are now down more than 11% from their late 2007 peak.

* Finally, sublease space is flooding the office market as companies fire workers. And mall vacancies are surging as retailers like Circuit City and Linens ‘N Things go broke. Even the perennially optimistic National Association of Realtors just forecast that office vacancy rates will rise to 16.4% by late 2009, from 12.5% in 2007, while retail rents will drop by 7.3%.



If you own commercial property, you’re probably already feeling the heat from the slumping economy. Expect further increases in vacancy rates in 2009, and additional pressure on rents when leases come up for negotiation. Lenders are also a lot stingier with credit that they’ve been in the past, meaning it should be tougher to refinance your loans.

Of course, commercial real estate representatives aren’t just sitting idly by. They’re doing what all their other … er … capitalist brethren are doing. They’re going to Washington begging for spare change!

As The Wall Street Journal recently recounted in a story called “Developers ask U.S. for Bailout as Massive Debt Looms”:

“With a record amount of commercial real-estate debt coming due, some of the country’s biggest property developers have become the latest to go hat-in-hand to the government for assistance.

“They’re warning policymakers that thousands of office complexes, hotels, shopping centers and other commercial buildings are headed into defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies. The reason: according to research firm Foresight Analytics LCC, $530 billion of commercial mortgages will be coming due for refinancing in the next three years — with about $160 billion maturing in the next year. Credit, meanwhile, is practically nonexistent and cash flows from commercial property are siphoning off.”

Do I think THAT will make a difference? It might loosen credit a bit, sure. But the lesson from the residential industry is that all these bailouts merely ease the symptoms of this crisis somewhat, without curing the underlying disease.

In other words, I expect commercial real estate fundamentals to weaken in 2009, loan defaults and foreclosures to climb, and prices to fall no matter what Bernanke & Co. do in Washington.

The Good News ?

I hate to leave you on such a gloomy note, what with New Year’s festivities right around the corner. So let me wrap up with this: Falling asset prices will eventually restore TRUE, intrinsic value to real estate.

This decline will get home prices back to levels that make sense when compared against incomes and rents.

It will make it so home buyers can purchase affordable homes at reasonable debt-to-income ratios, using traditional 30-year mortgages instead of all the junk loans that proliferated during the bubble.

It will make it so you can invest in rental property, or strip malls, or an office building and generate attractive returns again, without relying on pie-in-the-sky projections about future growth.

And most of all, I believe this painful decline will remind us all that we can’t build an economy based on flipping assets back and forth to each other at ever more inflated prices with ever increased leverage. Instead, we’ll save more. We’ll invest more in productive ventures. And the U.S. will once again be the great country it can be.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/your-2009-real-estate-outlook-2-28990

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U.S. Economy: Home Prices Fall Near Depression Pace

By Bob Willis and Shobhana Chandra

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of single-family houses in the U.S. dropped in November by the most in two decades and resale prices collapsed at a pace reminiscent of the Great Depression, dashing speculation the market was close to a bottom.

Purchases of both new and existing houses dropped 7.6 percent from the prior month, the biggest decline since January 1989, to an annual rate of 4.43 million, government and industry figures showed today. A 13 percent drop in the median resale price from a year earlier was the most since records began in 1968 and was likely the largest since the 1930s, the National Association of Realtors said.

“Housing is still in a freefall,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.

The figures were worse than economists had forecast and signal that the battered housing market that led the economy into a recession may be taking another lurch down. Sliding property values mean more Americans will be under water on their mortgages, destroying household wealth and undermining consumers’ purchasing power.

President-elect Barack Obama plans an unprecedented economic stimulus to restore growth, and pledged on Dec. 13 to limit foreclosures. One tenth of U.S. families who own a home are in financial distress, Obama said.

“We need desperately to get this economy moving,” Vice President-elect Joseph Biden, who is leading the incoming administration’s initiative to bolster the middle class, told reporters before a meeting with Obama’s economic advisers today. Transition officials are “getting very close” to an agreement with lawmakers on the size of the stimulus, Biden said.

Below Estimates

The Realtors’ figures showed home resales, including condos, fell 8.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million, below all but one estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 63 economists. The median resale price dropped to $181,300.

Separately, the Commerce Department reported that new-home sales fell 2.9 percent last month to a 17-year low of 407,000. The median sales price declined 11.5 percent from a year earlier to $220,400.

The Standard & Poor’s supercomposite of homebuilder stocks fell 2 percent to close at 205.44 in New York, the fourth straight decline. The index is down a third so far this year. The S&P 500 Stock Index, which fell as much as 22 percent in November, dropped 1 percent today.

Buyers Scared Off

Last month’s stock market collapse combined with rising unemployment to scare off home buyers, Lawrence Yun, the Realtors’ chief economist, said at a press conference.

“The economy was really starting to feel the smack-in-the- face blow from the financial crisis” during November, said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York.

U.S. household wealth already fell in the third quarter by the most on record, Federal Reserve figures showed earlier this month. Net worth for households and non-profit groups decreased by $2.81 trillion, the most since the Fed’s data began in 1952.

The number of previously owned unsold homes on the market at the end of November represented 11.2 months’ worth at the current sales pace, up from 10.3 months’ at the end of the prior month.

Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 45 percent of last month’s home purchases, Yun said.

Regional Breakdown

Purchases of total existing homes declined in all regions of the country, led by drops of 12 percent in the Northeast and 10.9 percent in the South. Prices also fell throughout the country, led by a decline of 25.5 percent in the West.

Resales account for about 90 percent of the housing market. Sales of existing homes are compiled from contract closings and may reflect contracts signed one or two months earlier. New-home sales, recorded when a contract is signed, are considered by economists to be a more timely barometer.

The hew-home sales report showed builders succeeded in trimming inventories even faster than sales dropped. The number of new homes for sale fell a record 7 percent to a seasonally adjusted 374,000, the fewest since February 2004.

The supply of new homes at the current sales rate dropped to 11.5 months’ worth from 11.8 months the prior month.

Resler said today’s figures show the housing market has “not yet seen any of the impact from the drop in mortgage rates.”

The Fed on Dec. 16 cut its benchmark interest rate target to a range of zero to 0.25 percent and reiterated it stands ready to expand purchases of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Federal Home Loan Bank debt under a program aimed at reducing mortgage costs. That program has helped drive mortgage rates lower.

Mortgage Rate

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell to 5.18 percent in the week ended Dec. 12, the lowest in more than five years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Ara Hovnanian, chief executive officer of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., New Jersey’s biggest homebuilder, called on the government to provide an economic stimulus for the housing industry.

“If government wants to get to the root of the problem they need to fix housing first,” Hovnanian said in a conference call on Dec. 17. Hovnanian, whose company reported a fiscal fourth quarter loss, didn’t specify what type of government intervention he wants in the housing market.

To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Willis in Washington [e-mail] Chandra in Washington at [e-mail]
Last Updated: December 23, 2008 17:16 EST

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Finally got a house sold that I have had listed
for a year. Got two trailers rented out today also.

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Merry Christmas Investors.

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Housing Inventory Shrinks in Many Markets

The glut of homes listed for sale continues to shrink gradually in many metropolitan areas.

In November, the supply of homes available for sale in 29 major metropolitan areas was down 3.6% from a month earlier, according to figures compiled by ZipRealty Inc., a real-estate brokerage firm based in Emeryville, Calif. The ZipRealty data cover all single-family homes, condominiums and town houses listed on local multiple-listing services in the 29 metro areas where the firm operates.

View Interactive

See more detailed inventory data.
On a national basis, home inventories typically decline modestly in November from October. Over the past 25 years, the average decrease in November has been 1.9%, according to Zelman & Associates, a research firm.

The November inventory in ZipRealty's 29 metro areas was down about 10% from a year earlier.

Nationwide, about 4.2 million previously occupied homes were listed for sale at the end of October, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is enough to last about 10 months at the current sales rate, the trade group says. The housing market is considered roughly in balance between supply and demand when the inventory is around six months.

These inventory data don't capture the entire supply. Newly constructed housing and foreclosed homes, a big part of the supply, aren't always included in Realtors' multiple-listing services. In addition, many people have taken their homes off the market in the hope they can get a better price later. Those homes will come back on the market eventually.

"Sellers appear to have finally gotten the message that if you don't have to sell, don't put your house on the market right now," says Patrick Lashinsky, Zip's chief executive officer.

The Zip data don't cover New York City. But Miller Samuel Inc., an appraisal firm there, says there were 9,348 cooperative apartments and condominiums on the market in Manhattan at the end of November, up 4.7% from October and up 38% from November 2007.

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On the House: Luring Home Buyers


What does it take to sell a house these days? A lot more than it used to.

Free cars and speed boats, gas cards packed with thousands of dollars, personal-training sessions -- homeowners across the U.S. are resorting to imaginative ploys to reel in potential buyers.

The Journal Report
See the complete Your Money Matters report."People are trying whatever it takes," says Johnie Gary, a Realtor at Re/Max in Lago Vista, Texas.

Here's a look at some of the more creative incentives that home sellers are using to get buyers to take notice.

Keys to the House...and Car
Joseph Moss, an investment-portfolio manager, prefers not to give anything away. But to attract potential buyers to his four-bedroom, 6,238-square-foot estate in Austin, Texas, he's giving the new owner a brand new Porsche Boxster, which retails for about $50,000.

The catch: "If you want to get the brand new Porsche," he says, "you have to pay the listing price." That's $2 million.

While Mr. Moss is quick to call the car giveaway a "gimmick," he says, he also hopes "a car lover would be attracted to the home because of the offering." He notes, for example, a family with a teenager recently stopped in to see the house. "That 16-year-old girl insisted [her parents] buy the house so she could get the car," he says, adding that "they may be back."


Jeff O'Brien
THE FAST LANE A Porsche comes with this home in Austin
Ready for a Dip
As a homeowner in Phoenix, Dennis Mavashev understands perfectly well the meaning of the phrase "sluggish housing market." According to Zillow.com, a Web site that tracks home values, home prices in the area fell more than 19% from July to September from a year earlier. That's why he's offering to install a pool, a patio and a professional grill should a new buyer want the amenities.

And if you don't want those goodies, Mr. Mavashev says, he'll knock $100,000 off the $1,495,000 price tag for a home that was built in 2006 and comes with six bedrooms, 6½ bathrooms and a three-car garage. "The market itself is so bad that it's hard to get people to even take a look at the area right now," he says.

No Lawn Mower Needed
If you purchase Tim Newton's $700,000, three-bedroom home in LaHabra, Calif., you don't have to worry about the yard, at least for a while. That's because Mr. Newton will pay to professionally maintain the yard for six months. He'll also throw in a new washer and dryer. "A lot of people don't have their own lawn mowers until they can get set up for a while," he says. He adds that a new washer and dryer is a must, and he's also considering sweetening the deal with flat-screen TVs and furnishing the home for a new buyer. "Saving people a little time is pretty attractive," says Mr. Newton.

Romance and Exercise
For apartment shoppers in New York City, real-estate development company ORE International LLC offers buyers 10 personal-training sessions at any of its developments with gyms. Additionally, new owners will receive a $500 American Express gift card for the holidays and a romantic getaway to the Old Drovers Inn, a historic upstate New York bed and breakfast. Finally, for a project near Prospect Park in Brooklyn, buyers receive free bicycles, says Boaz Gilad, ORE International's president. "The thought was that all the developers are giving discounts, but we wanted to be attractive, special and sexy," he says.

Show Me the Green
Shea Homes, a real-estate developer in Scottsdale, Ariz., recently offered to install solar panels for buyers of homes in its Trilogy communities in Arizona, Florida, California and Washington. Previously, the company offered a Toyota Prius to buyers of its homes, which range in price from $180,000 to more than $1 million. Rick Andreen, president of Shea Homes Active Lifestyle Communities, says that rather than wow consumers with big upfront discounts, the builder opted to lower buyers' ongoing payments. For instance, Mr. Andreen notes that a roof with solar panels can cut a household's electric bill by up to 60%. "We have seen a greater sensitivity to monthly payments," he says. "A big concession like a $20,000 discount is less impressive than these sorts of incentives."

How's Your French?
The final tale comes from before things turned really sour -- but may hold lessons for today's market.

When Steve and Linda Hart put their newly built Mediterranean-style home in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., on the market for $7.4 million two years ago, they had a problem. No one wanted to buy the stylized Harbor Beach home.


Steve and Linda Hart originally asked $7.4 million for this Fort Lauderdale, Fla., home two years ago. They eventually found a buyer after cutting the price to $6.3 million and offering gift certificates and beach-club privileges. Their real-estate agent offered an all-expenses-paid trip to France to the agent who delivered the home's next owner.
Faced with mounting costs and a dearth of buyers, the Harts knew it was time to get creative. Not only did they advertise private beach club privileges, they also offered two $5,000 gift certificates to fill each closet in the master suite.

But then their real-estate agent sweetened the pot by offering an all-expenses-paid trip for two to France to the agent who delivered the home's next owner.

"We got a lot of agents through the house," says Ms. Hart. "They suddenly had a great motivation to bring buyers in." The Harts' Realtor, Steve Kahn, figures he showed the house to roughly 300 to 400 people.

All that helped, no doubt, but it was the final incentive -- dropping the price to $6.3 million -- that probably made the biggest difference. After that, it took just three weeks to find a buyer.

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Good Morning

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Economists Predict Home Prices Will Bottom Next Year:

When will housing's sickening slide stop?

According to economists at the semi-annual National Association of Home Builders forecast conference, not soon—though the end is in sight. The consensus: Home prices will bottom out as early as the middle of next year.

I've been attending these conferences for years, and last spring's was the gloomiest I'd ever attended. The latest conference, held last week, was also downbeat, but with a glimmer of hope—many of the economists seemed optimistic that the government's bailout plan, which includes buying toxic mortgage debt, will lead to housing's recovery. More affordable prices, pent-up demand, incentives on new homes, fewer housing starts and expected declines in interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages also should help ease the crisis, said David Seiders, chief economist of the trade group.


Getty ImagesAlthough all of the economists agreed that we are in a recession—despite lack of official government confirmation—and have been for many months, several characterized the current financial turmoil as an overreaction, given the country's narrowing trade gap and strengthening dollar. "I'm hopeful that the markets will come to their senses soon," said Michael Moran, chief economist for Daiwa Securities America.

But even if the stock market bounces back, don't expect housing to rally right away. The forecasters pointed out numerous factors that are likely to drag out housing's convalescence: Unemployment is currently at 6.1%, compared with 4.4% last year, and it is projected by some to reach 8% next year. Home prices have already tumbled 20% from their peak three years ago, and will probably sink another 10% before stabilizing. Some 12 million homeowners currently owe more on their mortgages than the houses are worth, meaning more foreclosures and a drop in the already-weakening homeownership rate. And bloated supply will continue to outpace demand in most parts of the country for another year or two.

As terrible as this is for people who have lost or will lose their homes, overall, this painful contraction is necessary—a counterbalance to the era of easy money and over-leveraging. When it is over, homes won't be worth as much as they were before, but their prices will be more in line with people's incomes. Loans won't be given to everyone with a pulse, but they will be available to people with good credit. The market will be back to normal.

Perhaps by then we'll have learned some lessons: Just because someone is offering to loan you money doesn't mean you should take it. Don't assume lenders and regulators will look after your interests. Before you sign a contract, read the fine print. Since neither job security nor rising equity is guaranteed, stick with fixed-rate loans. Don't live beyond your means. Pay your bills on time, and keep enough cash on hand to pay for at least six months of expenses. Think of your house primarily as shelter, not a cash machine.

And finally, don't despair. Remember that markets are cyclical; the bigger the binge, the worse the hangover. We'll have to suffer this one for months or even years to come. But if we learn not to over-indulge, we'll all wind up healthier in the long run.

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How to Buy a Foreclosed Home:

For anyone wanting to take advantage of today's buyer's market, distressed properties offer the best chance to make a killing. But you need good credit or ready access to cash, and a taste for the hunt.

As I've mentioned in previous columns, searching for a foreclosure can be maddeningly frustrating. Newspaper notices of foreclosure sales are disorganized; foreclosure-listing Web sites charge hefty monthly fees; lenders post only minimal information on the properties they've taken back. And many real estate agents have little experience with these sorts of transactions, and don't want to be bothered with them.

That means foreclosure buyers must be willing to do more sleuthing on their own to find the best deals. Here are some tips to get started:

Focus on one neighborhood: Although distressed properties are found everywhere these days, not every one is a good deal, especially if the seller bought at the top of the market or if the entire neighborhood is undergoing a decline. It's best to concentrate on places where there are relatively few distressed properties and good job growth. These areas will revive quickly once housing returns to normal. Once you've targeted and studied property values in a particular neighborhood, drive around and look for properties that aren't as well-kept as the ones around it -- then start ringing doorbells. You may be able to buy directly from an owner who's in financial trouble even before the loan defaults.
Research the property: Although major real-estate Web sites and portals for both agent-listed and for-sale-by-owner properties list foreclosures these days, most provide minimal information and refer you to a subscription-based foreclosure listing site. Some lenders also list the properties they've taken back, though information on these properties is also sparse. (Here's a good link to these lender sites)
Once you've targeted a property, check out the local assessor's office: Web sites for these offices often list the owner of the property, tax information, assessed value, square footage and aerial pictures. Most importantly, they reveal what the seller paid for the home, which could be more or less than the property is worth now. The best deals generally come from sellers who have owned their homes for a long time and have built up some equity.

Associated PressLearn what the seller wants: Knowing what motivates the seller gets you the best deal. If monthly carrying costs are high, you'll score if you can settle quickly. Or if a lender is trying to minimize losses on a foreclosed property which no longer is worth the unpaid loan amount, you might be able to negotiate a very good deal on financing by agreeing to pay a close-to-market price.
Find an experienced broker: While it makes sense to gather as much information yourself as you can, and to deal directly with sellers whenever you can, some lenders refuse to deal directly with buyers. If that's the case with the property you've targeted, find an agent with ample recent experience with distressed and foreclosed properties. Ask the agent to explain the details of the deals: How much was offered compared to the asking price, how long it took for the seller or lender to accept the offer, and any concessions the agent was able to negotiate. Pay attention not just to the answers, but to the emotions the agent expresses. Foreclosure deals are often complex and time-consuming; you don't want an agent who lacks diplomacy, patience and perseverance.

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No Sale: A Bad Agent, or a Lousy Market?

My 12-year-old home has been on the market for almost three months now. It's in excellent shape, and from the start we set the price close to recent comparable sales, at our agent's recommendation. In the beginning, we got a lot of showings, but lately, nothing. Our listing agreement is about to expire, and we can't decide whether to keep this agent. (Since we've already moved away, it would be tough to interview new agents.) How we can tell whether our current agent is doing a good job, or if the problem is just this horrible real estate market?

It's easy to get depressed about selling your house these days, when bad news about the housing market crops up daily. It's especially discouraging when you've been keeping up your home, following professional advice about staging and are trying to be clear-sighted about your price.

That real estate agents, as well as sellers, can get into a blue funk these days about the real estate market is also understandable—but far less forgivable. Given that you typically pay $25,000 in real estate commissions on a $500,000 house, you deserve an all-out effort to bring in buyers. And the blitz should be unrelenting, not just when the listing is fresh.

Too often, that's not what I'm seeing. I'm not sure whether it's caused by despondency over market conditions, laziness or simply incompetence, but many agents are overlooking the basic tenets of marketing these days.

To illustrate, I've been randomly driving around Northern Virginia for the past several months looking at homes for sale in the $500,000 to $1 million range. In many cases, the for-sale signs have plastic boxes to hold listing sheets and brochures, but inevitably, these are empty. So home shoppers must guess if the home fits their basic needs and price range before calling the agent, which some people find intimidating or embarrassing, especially if the home turns out to be above their price range.

Then there's the question of open houses. Although sellers often insist on them, many agents can't be bothered to do them any more—or they just hold so-called "broker's opens" for the benefit of fellow real estate agents. Worse, many of the agents who do hold open houses spend their time hanging out in the kitchen rather than engaging buyers in conversation and determining their ability and willingness to buy (I've been to some where the agent didn't even ask me my name). The oft-repeated rationale that no one ever buys a home they've seen at an open house is simply untrue—in fact, a buyer did exactly that when I sold my first home in the late '80s.

Similarly, according to an article written last month by Bill Shue, president of Realty U Group in Aliso Viejo, Calif., for National Realty News, a Web site targeted to Realtors, some agents are failing to return buyers' e-mails promptly. He cites one instance where 50 real estate agents were sent an urgent e-mail message from a buyer saying he was in town and wanted to buy immediately; all failed to respond. He also criticizes agents who spend a lot of money to drive traffic to their Web sites, but fail to provide enough "content rich" material when they arrive.

I can appreciate how hard it is for agents to stay motivated and upbeat when anxious sellers are constantly pushing them for results. And having to handle more listings, for a longer period of time, during these troubled times is a double burden.

But sellers shouldn't be shortchanged. That's why it's critical for you to do some detective work before you relist with this agent. Ask a friend from the old neighborhood to go to check your brochure box, visit your open house and send an e-mail asking a few questions about your listing. You'll soon learn whether the problem with selling your house lies with the market or the marketing.

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Is Now a Good Time to Buy a Home:

Q: Given what's happening in the financial markets, is now a good time to buy a home?

A: For some people, yes. If you…

have access to credit
have fat cash reserves
aren't already over-exposed to real estate
have a secure job or income stream
expect to hold the property for at least two years
…then now is an excellent time to buy.

Everyone else should take a breather.

The reason: It's still too early to tell whether the dire predictions many government officials and economists are making about the potential collapse of our economy without a bailout are crying wolf--or if the wolf is really at our door.

For those who are cash-rich, either because they are too wealthy to be badly hurt by any economic swing, or because they were presciently pessimistic and liquidated their portfolios before the meltdown, the coming months—and perhaps years-- of uncertainly will provide an unprecedented real estate buying opportunity, of both trophy estates and income-producing investment properties. "The smart people know that the world is not coming to an end," says Lanse Robb, an agent with LandVest, a brokerage on Boston's toney North Shore. "They're making their moves."

But the average buyer probably doesn't have the cash to gamble on real estate--and shouldn't, at least for now. Income growth has stalled for the vast majority of Americans for the past eight years, and home equity has been vanishing rapidly since the peak of the boom in 2005. (Last month, median existing home prices nationwide fell 6%, to $221,900.) The roiling stock market is hardly a comfort either, as everyone who has peeked at a 401k statement over the past week knows.

More critically, jobs are evaporating at an alarming pace. According to government statistics, the unemployment rate rose to a five-year high of 6.1% in August. There have been eight consecutive months of job losses, with a year-to-date total of 685,000. And layoffs aren't likely to end soon, since factory orders fell 4.5% last month—twice the rate that analysts expected.

Without healthy job growth, it's likely that the supply of unsold homes will grow. Currently it's at 11 months, more than double the median supply of two years ago. Until that inventory is burned off, home prices will continue to stagnate or fall in most markets. A government bailout that unfreezes credit markets and staunches the flood of foreclosures that are also depressing prices should help, but the fix will take a long time.

That doesn't mean that the housing market is doomed; ultimately, it will get better. There's even an upside: certain markets, particularly on both coasts, were driven up by speculators and became wildly overpriced during the boom. Falling prices means that housing in those markets will eventually become more affordable for average families. Credit Suisse estimates that, nationally, the ratio of median home prices to household incomes will return to their historical average of 2.86 in another 18 months.

In the meantime, if you're feeling insecure about your job or low on cash, hang tight and save your money. And if you must move, rent.

[taylormade]

The number of new home sales in October slipped 5.3% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000. This was worse than the expected reading of 444,000 and the lowest amount of sales since 1991. The supply of unsold new homes was 394,000 in September, representing a supply of 10.4 months, while the median price of new homes slid 9.1% year-over-year to $218,400.

[taylormade]

Things have slowed down a little, but not as bad as in other areas.

[ewylie]

How are things in Birmingham,Al.?

[taylormade]

GOOD Morning.

[taylormade]

What is the avg. days on the market in your area?

[taylormade]

What area is everybody in?
I am currently in Birmingham,Alabama

[taylormade]

Good Morning, how are things in everybodys area?

[Stock RN]

Please help with this one > can anyone with the expertise verify is this is true or just a scam.

http://obiongroup.com/PR/20061016CI.pdf (text below)

http://www.duttondirect.com/property/view/state:milne+bay/country:papua+new+guinea/id:564

Agent profile: http://www.duttondirect.com/dealers/profile/user_id:1083/ad_id:564/ad_area:property

The Obion Group And Associated Companies Announce
The Obion Group And Associated Companies Announce
The Purchase Of The Conflict Islands, A Coral Sea Atoll
Mr. Gouveia stated, “In October 2006, The Obion Group and Associated
Companies (“Obion”) agreed on terms to purchase the Conflict Islands, a Coral
Sea Atoll (“Coral Sea Atoll”), for a total cost of $13 million. The current owners
were disappointed that they could not develop these islands into a beautiful get
away for the world to enjoy. Their decision to sell the islands to Obion was based
in part on their belief that we could fulfill their dream of building a beautiful oasis
for everyone to enjoy. We take this responsibility seriously and have the same
vision that they have for these islands. We will give our best efforts to follow
through on the current owners and our dreams. The Coral Sea Atoll represents 23
islands, each of them being more than 1 acre to 240 acres, which encircles a
massive tropical lagoon. These beautiful islands are ringed by pristine coral
reefs, fringed by 360-degree sugar white beaches and filled with coconut palms
and ironwood trees. The largest island has countless miles of white sand
beaches. It is a private hideaway surrounded by a pristine blue lagoon up to 100
feet in depth with the best diving and snorkeling in the world.
“This magnificent blue-green lagoon within the fringing reef is approximately 5
miles at its widest point and its greatest length being approximately 12 miles.
The lagoon is of striking turquoise beauty and is brilliantly set off by beaches of
sparkling golden coral sand. The various channels of water between the islands
allow the lagoon's waters to be replenished and renewed with each change in the
tide, thus assuring the lagoon proper oxygenation for its wealth of marine flora,
marine wildlife and spectacular coral reefs. The trade winds support a beautiful
climate similar to weather in Hawaii. For 15 years, weather tracking records have
shown that there have been no severe weather storms in this area.
“There are daily flights on Qantas and Air Nuigini from major cities in Australia
to Port Moresby International Airport. From Port Moresby daily flights on
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The Obion Group And Associated Companies Announce
Air Nuigini and MBA Airlines operate to the nearest town. From there the
islands are accessible by boats or ships (of any size). There is a 2,500 foot
runway for private aircraft, which could be restored, and a 9,000 foot runway
could be built on the largest island.
“The Coral Sea Atoll islands are coral islands that form around extinct sunken
volcanic islands. The massive tropical lagoon area represents where the volcanic
islands previously existed. This formation was created over several millions
years. This Coral Sea Atoll is located 80 miles from Alotau, the Capital of the
Milne Bay province of Papua New Guinea and 600 miles from Cairns, Australia.
This is in the Southwestern Pacific Ocean in a geographical area known as
Oceania. The Coral Sea Atoll is one of only 3 Coral Atolls ever sold in the World
to private interests.
“The potential growth and business development opportunities at the Coral Sea
Atoll are unlimited. A first-class resort with a health spa, Las Vegas style casino,
high-end shops, condominiums and villas, golf course, blue fin tuna farming,
sports fishing and pearl farming represent only some of the possibilities.
“From a valuation perspective, it is worth noting the following:
(1) The average price per acre of all 7 countries that have
islands for sale in the Oceania part of the world, and by converting
those prices per acres into U. S. Dollars, the average price per acre
in Oceania is roughly $135,000 dollars;
(2) Marlon Brando’s Tetiaroa Atoll (600 Acres) in the Tahiti,
Oceania area, was sold for $80 Million Dollars. This equates to
$40 Million per 300 Acres; and
(3) The Coral Sea Atoll contains 23 Islands totaling 926
Acres.
“The above information is not a statement of value and is provided for
informational purposes only. The valuation of these islands will depend on many
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The Obion Group And Associated Companies Announce
factors, which would include, but is not limited to, income generated from
development of the islands, location, how title is held, climate, etc.”
Mr. Frank Love, Chairman of The Obion Group, stated, “I have been researching
the possibility of buying these islands for over 9 months and I am excited to have
negotiated and finalized an agreement to purchase the Coral Sea Atoll islands. I
want to thank Mr. Gouveia and many others who have assisted me in this
process. This is an exciting time for us at The Obion Group and we expect great
things as a result of this purchase.”
Please review additional information located on The Obion Group website.
About The Obion Group:
The Obion Group, Inc. is a holding corporation for 15 fast-food restaurant chains
in the developmental stage. We have real estate properties, an ethanol production
& retail sales venture, renewable resources venture, an interest in a virtual reality
company, and are looking at the lucrative resort destinations business as well.
Our many ventures demonstrate our diversity over a broad spectrum. Although
our visions are worldwide, we never lose site of our benefactors. By placing our
valued benefactors strategically into The Obion Group of companies equally, we
ensure stability, growth, and a bright future for all. By focusing on our
benefactors, our thought process is, "If we take good care of them, they will take
good care of us," this is Your Company, help build it.
Just like our namesake Obion that means "River with many Forks," we see
prosperity in many different directions. The Obion Group will be "The Way of
the Future."
Forward-Looking Statements:
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In particular, when used in the
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The Obion Group And Associated Companies Announce
preceding discussion, the words "believes," "expects," "intends," "anticipated," or
"may," and similar conditional expressions, are intended to identify forwardlooking
statements within the meaning of the Act and are subject to the safe
harbor created by the Act. Except for historical information, all of the statements,
expectations and assumptions contained in the foregoing are forward-looking
statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. It is possible that the
assumptions made by management are not necessarily the most likely and may
not materialize. In addition, other important factors that could cause actual results
to differ materially include the following: business conditions and the amount of
growth in the company's industry and general economy; competitive factors;
ability to attract and retain personnel; and the price of the company's stock. The
Obion Group takes no obligation to update or correct forward-looking statements
and also takes no obligation to update or correct information prepared by third
parties that are not paid for by the company.
file:///C|/20061016.htm (4 of 4) [16/10/2006 22:13:17]

[diplomatic]

Does anyone know what can be done with land for profit without selling it? Is there such thing of a grant for starting a business? Or, can one get private investors for a progject?

The majority of the land is farmland or fields, I should say. However, there is a hill off the highway that I think is ideal definitely for a house or maybe apartments. Although, I do not know how ideal the location is for people to rent easily, commonly. The property is rather in the country, out of town. The nearest towns are small. If it would be easily rentable, the initial cost would be outrageous, but, if wealthy, out of state people are prone enough to rent, maybe it could have a pool and such. I would like it, if even possible, if a land developer and/or investor would lease the land and basically do the rest. However, that may not be cost effective for him or her. Somewhere in the future, I may set most of the fields out in pine trees for a future investment. If the area was deemed easily rentable, I just don't know if the monthly income would exceed the loan payment or have much of a difference. Any suggestions or ideas?

I appreciate your time

[catalinminea]

I am selling a Hunting Domain (1030 ha) in Romania if you are an investor or potential buyer please call at 0040724304304

[john freeman]

Just trying to catchup here and see what's happening.
Not much will try to get things going.
Best wishes all
Later
john

John Freeman
CallHome Realty Network
[e-mail]
http://www.helpmehome.com

[dkoffler]

hi this a test

[premier1]

hi chris4....
a landlord huh??? did you take a phsych exam before you started?? HAR
my start in "professional" property management was nothing more than evolution - i was putting together partnerships to purchase fixers & also did the management, etc for the partners
it got to the point that non-affiliated folks started asking me to manage their properties also so it was necessary to get licensed - and - as they say, the rest is history

i retired some six years ago at 46 after almost 26 yrs in the landlord/property managment business - i continue, however, to own and manage 17 units (all houses except one duplex) - and - because of very low debt make a decent cash flow

most of my current revenue is from making loans - i got out of the stock market in early february 2000 and put all the money into making high yield, short term loans secured by 1st mortgages - these loans are a ton less hassle and a ton more lucrative that screwing around with tenants ever was

[chris4]

I've been a landlord for about 9 years but recently took the plunge and purchased several more units for investment. It would be great to share ideas and experiences with others in the industry. Premier1, how did you start in the property management business? It's something I'd like to do also.

[john freeman]

Thanks premier1
I too hold some rental properties, and so far the experience has been good.
Just back from a little holiday, so will be posting more info here in the immediate future, Thanks again for your interest
later
john

John Freeman
CallHome Realty Network
[e-mail]
http://www.helpmehome.com

[premier1]

mornin' john.......
i've been a landlord (residential) for better than 30 yrs - even spent about 20 of those yrs as a professional property manager - had near 700 units under management when i finally sold (the property management business - i kept my own 30+ units which i continue to manage) about five yrs ago & retired at 48 yrs old - now supplement my retirement income by making loans to investors & developers
hope your board takes off - it would be fun to chat with folks across the country about how they have done it or are doing it

[john freeman]

Matt

Thank goodness for real estate, cause my portfolio is not any great shakes at the momment <g>
Just the same glad to be on board.
Thanks for having us
john

John Freeman
CallHome Realty Network
[e-mail]
http://www.helpmehome.com

[Mattu]

We are more than happy to have you here...

I hear iHub real estate is increasing in value each day <g>

mb

[john freeman]

Well here we are.
I just want to thank iHub for putting this together. We in the industry are always thirsting for knowledge. From my humble abode on the beautiful Ottawa River to your home, please fell free to jump in anytime.
Also I encourage Realtors to ask techno type questions which if I can't answer I'm sure we can find an answer.
So, again thanks to ihub for having us.
Live long and prosper.
john