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Real Estate Bubble (RUBBLE)

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Last Post: 6/25/2021 9:29:23 AM - Followers: 63 - Board type: Free - Posts Today: 0

This board was created because I believe the Real Estate bubble is massive and growing more massive everyday - at least as of June 1, 2005. Link: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/bj2110/realestate30yrchart.jpg This economy has grown and continues to grow despite the horrendous debt issues we face purely because of one reason - the astronomical wealth effect created by inflated home prices. The refinancing boom has given millions of people extra money - not only because they usually skip a payment, but also because they have lower monthly payments. But, the biggest issue is that when people THINK they have more net worth than they had last year, they spend like it. The overall debt situation in the US is staggering beyond anything any of us has ever seen. That is never going away in our lifetimes. Many negatives face the prospects for further home appreciation - not the least of which is rising rates. But, the appreciation level for several years now has been unprecedented. It is eerily similar to the tech bubble that blew out in March, 2000. Here are two important truisms on real estate. Every realtor knows them and spouts them. THEOREM 1) Land: "They are not making more of it." Sounds good, but incredibly misguided! The perfect example - and there could never be a better example of anything. Anyone who doesn't recognize this example is a fool! There is nowhere on earth where land is more important than Japan. You have half the population of the US squeezed into a country the size of one of our states! Even worse, a big percentage of the country is mountainous! Despite that (and listen up), Real Estate values in Japan have DECLINED for 13 consecutive years! This is not a 3rd world country. This is the 2nd largest economy in the world! What happened in Japan is identical to what is happening here. Their stock market went wild for quite a while. When it popped and began a many year down cycle, all that money had to go somewhere. It went into real estate and Japan's real estate market went wild for several years afterwards. Finally, that popped and it has declined 13 consecutive years. The US equity market peaked in 2000. People sold. People had to do something with their money. And, new investors weren't too keen on putting it in stocks. So, where did it go? Real Estate. And, the market has been rocketing up for 5 years. It is now at levels where only the bravest (and stupidest) people are buying. The bigger fool theory works only so long. THEOREM 2) "Everyone has to live somewhere." True, but also incredibly misleading. Nobody has to live in MORE THAN one place! What has driven this market more than any other single issue is the construction of second and third homes. Approximately 26% of all homes built in the last year were second or third homes. What people fail to realize is that if things start to go downhill, people will try to unload these things. That will set the dominoes in motion - and forget about it! It takes very little oversupply to obliterate prices - especially when they have rocketed up so long so fast. There has never been a time when so many people were speculating on land and property. If they don't have equity, they will bail when things start going down. If they HAVE equity, they will bail because they want out with their profits. Just wait until you see huge numbers of for sale signs on "extra" properties that people own. It will be bloody IMO. I estimate that the market will average -25% over the next 3 years - specifically in those areas around the coasts. That is really bad, if true. If you take 25% off the value of the biggest asset most people have, that is a horrible drain on the economy. Nobody is going to be spending like a drunken sailor under those conditions. No bubble in history looked like it when it was at the peak! Everything looked fantastic! Everyone figured they could sell before the crash. At least in stocks, you, theoretically, can. You can find a buyer in 2 minutes. In housing, good luck. Len
#2673   HCDI 3.43 almost same price, guess they swampboots 06/25/21 09:29:23 AM
#2670   If true buy HCDI 3.31 right now, this swampboots 04/07/21 03:00:21 PM
#2669   We Have Never Seen A Home-Buying Frenzy Quite dickmilde 03/31/21 07:41:07 PM
#2668   Real estate homes scarce! swampboots 03/31/21 02:13:19 PM
#2667   Biden plan to eliminate 1031 tax benefit will swampboots 08/01/20 10:49:07 AM
#2666   Is a real estate bubble in commercial office swampboots 05/13/20 11:29:24 AM
#2665   I little sweep for next upward keep: swampboots 12/02/18 01:46:16 PM
#2664   This will blow your mind: swampboots 12/02/18 12:10:14 PM
#2663   Who are theses new players , was out swampboots 12/02/18 11:29:31 AM
#2662   Townhouse prices going down 30% in NYC, will swampboots 12/02/18 11:28:44 AM
#2661   Yikes guess it enough time passes to remark: swampboots 08/21/18 10:54:33 AM
#2660   Real estate doing nothing for me in the swampboots 08/21/18 10:52:37 AM
#2659   No I did not delete any post, yikes swampboots 08/21/18 10:50:10 AM
#2658   Did U delete your post on OPXS board? littlefish 01/05/18 10:15:34 PM
#2657   Nah, I'm looking at the same thing minus littlefish 01/05/18 03:40:39 PM
#2656   Does the new tax law effect you, in swampboots 01/05/18 02:55:50 PM
#2655   New tax policy should kill any near term swampboots 12/08/17 03:12:05 PM
#2654   Florida post hurricane is connected to this old swampboots 09/11/17 05:30:55 PM
#2653   Crashing Canadian Mortgage Lender Bailed-Out By 321,000 Retired dickmilde 04/27/17 05:16:51 PM
#2652   Fannie Introduces "Innovative Solutions" Allowing Student-Debt-Laden Millennials To dickmilde 04/25/17 09:12:20 PM
#2651   Scary stuff if you own retail stuff: swampboots 04/11/17 10:51:43 AM
#2650   Condo Flippers In Miami-Dade Left Twisting In The Wind dickmilde 03/26/17 03:10:21 PM
#2649   Yes SLP would have been better for my metabolism. swampboots 03/15/17 11:49:47 AM
#2648   SLP just posted another record sales quarter dickmilde 03/14/17 09:22:24 AM
#2647   Fake news unlike your excellent SLP news last swampboots 03/14/17 08:23:15 AM
#2646   Manhattan Luxury Housing In Freefall: J.Crew CEO Slashes dickmilde 03/12/17 06:33:58 AM
#2645   NY Fed President Dudley Thinks A New Housing dickmilde 01/18/17 07:09:25 AM
#2644   15% cash on cash return is very good swampboots 01/04/17 03:45:22 PM
#2643   You did not have some good picks, but swampboots 12/30/16 12:54:39 PM
#2642   Looks like the 10K took a little clothing littlefish 12/29/16 10:21:28 PM
#2641   When Assets (Such As Real Estate) Become Liabilities dickmilde 12/27/16 01:03:51 PM
#2640   Yes it was...I closed on the house I beigledog 12/19/16 08:01:16 PM
#2639   Yes that was the time!!!! swampboots 12/19/16 06:34:19 PM
#2638   Me too I did scrape the lows. swampboots 12/19/16 06:03:26 PM
#2637   My last rental purchase was made on Oct. dickmilde 12/19/16 06:01:11 PM
#2636   It was the absolute bottom! swampboots 12/19/16 05:49:19 PM
#2635   Littlefish: instead of a PM which you cannot swampboots 09/23/16 09:22:48 AM
#2634   all happening north of you - prices have crazytrader 09/08/16 03:06:19 PM
#2633   Not where I am, working class buildings swampboots 09/06/16 05:36:05 PM
#2632   its happening all over again. Home prices crazytrader 08/30/16 03:23:10 PM
#2631   Shareholders r the eventual suckers unless U can littlefish 08/29/16 03:04:48 PM
#2630   To be clear the lease back originators are swampboots 08/22/16 09:08:38 AM
#2629   I don't think those guys r suckers. They littlefish 08/21/16 07:22:30 PM
#2628   Re: your reaction to lease back. I am swampboots 08/20/16 10:41:20 PM
#2627   Another Real Estate Crash Looms: Sam Zell Dumps dickmilde 05/29/16 05:47:03 PM
#2626   Looks like everyone is shy on CUO LOL. littlefish 04/05/16 08:11:11 PM
#2625   I just reread post and noticed it sounded littlefish 04/04/16 10:33:13 PM
#2624   Thanks for the clarified DD. swampboots 04/04/16 09:35:12 PM
#2623   Definitely keep an eye on CUO. They have littlefish 04/04/16 09:03:18 PM
#2622   My Condo group is very manageable, as can swampboots 04/04/16 08:19:53 PM
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