Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX)

[BottomBounce]

$REMX $UURAF "Rare earths make electric comeback after bust
Key metals soar more than 50% this year"
https://www.ft.com/content/44acde0a-81a2-11e7-a4ce-15b2513cb3ff

[Fibanotch]

cant tell?

[Watchtower]

https://www.tradingview.com/x/TrWROalJ/

[Watchtower]

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4PsZIiiI/

[Watchtower]

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9DW7P936/

[Watchtower]

Hmm... Nice crash-course on the true state of the REE/HREE/Strategic Metals industry via the MCP board courtesy of some well-informed DD reporting there..

Watching/waiting. Looks and sounds like MCP will be a good play along with REMX as cost-effective strategies are implemented and as China continues to address illegal mining/exports through the rest of this year and beyond..

[Watchtower]

A break out anyone??

[grnbkrboy]

Greenbackers.com bullish newsletter on CHGI..thinks this graphite play will be taken private within 20days

off topic, but not necessarily...excerpt: US Listed China Stock Take Private Wave Exploding—Two 2 Deals This WEEK! - CHGI...
Stock focus: URZ CHGI

URZ acting like it wants to rebuild following recent runup...
Recall recent basing around 1.50 following recent runup following news of wel permit for uranium production earlier in week.....

URZ 02:07pm EDT 1.70 0.04 +2.41% 290,204 319,038 1.67 1.66 1.72

URZ
3 Stocks Under $5 Making Big Moves at TheStreet02:47pm EDT

Recall SA article we forwarded late yesterday......higher low support focus @ .50...

CHGI 01:42pm EDT 0.51 0.01 +3.03% 92,281 19,705 0.53 0.50 0.58

Thursday October 25, 2012
CHGI
likely to go private: http://nbtequitiesresearch.com/t/l/lSy9c3fl5koiJzB

[Pro-Life]

Comps from the REE sector:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?AVL,ARAFF,GEM.V,REE,GWG.V,LYSCF,QRM,NEMFF,UURAF,REMX|B|H14,3

[MH1]

as China fights to keeps their people from rioting, they will give concessions..Rare Earths is a valuable income for them, and they now know, that in 2-3 years, we will start producing more ourselves, and are already using alternatives..Therefor the price will soon go up..imo

[frenchee]

Thoughts on the Low Pricing of Rare Earths in China's Domestic Market
by: Jack Lifton February 27, 2011

On Saturday, the Wall Street Journal ran an article entitled “External Surpluses Root Cause of China's Inflation Problem.” It is a report of a talk by Mr. Yi Gang, vice governor of the People's Bank of China. The talk included the following comments:

"In addition to boosting the flexibility of the yuan exchange rate, China also should adjust resource prices to address imbalances,” he said, “as many resources are still traded in China at below their natural prices.


"China also should boost wages and social benefits to lift consumption, step up its enforcement of environment regulations and undertake other structural reforms to address imbalances.”

Repeat after me: The selling prices of the rare earths and other commodities within China are still too low. Thus, if the Chinese Government did not strictly control their export then the market would drive all of the supply out of China chasing the higher prices in the foreign marketplace. One current driver for such a foreign accumulation would be the stocking of strategic materials (stockpiling) by governments to protect their domestic industry’s security of supply. Another driver could well be inventory building by once burned, twice shy private corporations, finally reversing the 50 year reign of the just-in-time no inventory philosophy- which was a principal driver in the creation of this problem..

Chinese central planning economists, however, also see this danger to Chinese industrial security of supply. And, by extension, as potentially then leading to high unemployment in the very important domestic Chinese alternate energy, green and clean-tech sectors,

The Chinese central bank, the Peoples’ Bank of China (PBOC) does not want to buy commodities as an alternative to U.S. Treasury Bonds, because this could disrupt the commodities market. It would cause price volatility in the very asset trying to be used to stabilize prices and the currency. Even more importantly, no commodity accumulation of sufficient size to soak up excess Chinese liquidity would be likely to make a dent in reserves as large as those of China in any case, but it would certainly interrupt the flow of raw materials for industry.

The PBOC is determined to force China to grow its consumer sector without causing inflation, one of the two of the PBOC’s greatest fears. The other being a massively corrected and thus much more expensive Yuan. Yet by continuing to buy up surplus and hot money inflow dollars at a fixed rate, the PBOC feeds (and it knows it is feeding) inflation and increases the pressure on it (the bank) to revalue the Yuan or let it float.

The prices of the rare earths in China will have to increase soon or smuggling will become uncontrollable. That is human nature. In the long run the production of the rare earth metals outside of China will help the Chinese by increasing the global supply and reducing global prices and thus eliminating the need for export controls. This is doubly true when one considers that China itself is the world’s biggest market for rare earth metals, and its neighbor, Japan, accounts for almost all of the rest of the global demand.

The rare earth mining economy within China is tiny as a proportion of the GDP. However, the number of jobs dependent critically on the properties of the rare earth metals required to manufacture green, clean, communication as well as entertainment technologies, is not trivial. China’s central planners’ dilemma is that it must keep rare earths cheap in order not to drive rare earth-based component jobs offshore to lower cost countries such as Vietnam or India. Its own entrepreneurs are already doing this, by the way.

The result for junior miners with rare earth claims is that the race is on to produce more of what China needs to be produced outside of China, to relieve the pressure on its two tier pricing economy for commodities such as the rare earths.

The Chinese government maintains strict overall control of China’s economy from Beijing. Chinese businessmen, however, have the same mindset as any other businessmen, maximize profit and reduce costs. In today’s China, the government wins. It just may use a meat ax rather than a scalpel to enforce its decisions- such as with the rare earths recently.

But to think that Chinese economists and central bankers do not see the problem is foolish.

I believe that the selling prices outside of China of the rare earths will continue to rise until there is significant non-Chinese production of the rare earths. Then if demand exceeds supply, which I think likely, there will be a massive culling of those companies not in production, or of those that are too large, or too skewed to light rare earths.

So long as China continues to maintain that its supplies are being exhausted, the prices of the heavy rare earths must continue to climb. One respected analyst is calling for a dysprosium price of nearly $2000/kg by 2020. If China does not find domestic new supplies of dysprosium, I think the analyst is on the right track.

Be cautious when investing in the rare earth sector. Very large forces are intersecting in it and will make it very volatile in the near term.

[chrich12]

They are currently sitting at 6.4% of the total holdings, so I'm sure it has had some effect, but not too much. I actually went short MCP ahead of the dilution, but chose the wrong month for my options. Guess that's what I get for taking the evil short side. I'm still long REMX though.

Link to latest fact sheet with allocations. It should be the 3rd document listed. http://vaneck.com/search_results.aspx?searchtext=remx

chad

[MH1]

molycorp dilution has hurt us..

[comon16]

I saw two brief headlines; 1)China cutting back on Rare Earth exports again and 2) China looking to develop Rare Earth resources outside of China with non-Chinese companies.

Buyouts perhaps?

[chrich12]

Entire sector is on fire today. Anyone have any thoughts as to why? AVL has gapped up hard the past few days. I assume its partly due to moving to the AMEX, but geeesh.

[chrich12]

Fund Holdings as of 12/03/2010					 
 Number	Holding	Ticker	Shares	Market Value	% of net assets 
 1	Iluka Resources Ltd	ILU AU	1,666,923	$13,489,723.38 	9.85% 
 2	Lynas Corp Ltd	LYC AU	7,327,146	$11,454,611.58 	8.36% 
 3	Thompson Creek Metals Co Inc	TCM CN	727,830	$9,527,824.43 	6.95% 
 4	Neo Material Technologies Inc	NEM CN	1,135,785	$8,153,192.42 	5.95% 
 5	Titanium Metals Corp	TIE US	424,524	$7,866,429.72 	5.74% 
 6	China Molybdenum Co Ltd	3993 HK	8,435,000	$7,040,282.42 	5.14% 
 7	RTI International Metals Inc	RTI US	237,199	$7,004,486.47 	5.11% 
 8	Kenmare Resources PLC	KMR LN	17,172,486	$6,924,892.38 	5.05% 
 9	OSAKA Titanium Technologies Co	5726 JP	142,300	$6,668,764.31 	4.87% 
 10	Cia Minera Autlan SAB de CV	AUTLANB MM	2,606,350	$6,091,533.98 	4.45% 
 11	Hunan Non-Ferrous Metals - H	2626 HK	13,512,000	$5,582,853.02 	4.08% 
 12	China Rare Earth Holdings Ltd	769 HK	12,646,000	$5,408,278.34 	3.95% 
 13	Molycorp Inc	MCP US	192,551	$5,352,917.80 	3.91% 
 14	Toho Titanium Co Ltd	5727 JP	197,500	$5,082,564.87 	3.71% 
 15	Avalon Rare Metals Inc	AVL CN	1,115,104	$4,480,427.84 	3.27% 
 16	General Moly Inc	GMO US	791,930	$4,466,485.20 	3.26% 
 17	Ferbasa-Ferro Ligas da Bahia	FESA4 BZ	532,000	$4,331,086.97 	3.16% 
 18	Rare Element Resources Ltd	REE US	396,032	$3,889,034.24 	2.84% 
 19	Arafura Resources Ltd.	ARU AU	2,827,831	$3,512,432.36 	2.56% 
 20	Quest Rare Minerals Ltd	QRM CN	505,599	$2,550,678.90 	1.86% 
 21	International Ferro Metals Ltd	IFL LN	5,244,626	$2,261,220.60 	1.65% 
 22	Galaxy Resources Ltd	GXY AU	1,528,312	$2,160,159.36 	1.58% 
 23	5N Plus Inc	VNP CN	347,997	$2,102,554.16 	1.53% 
 24	Daiichi Kigenso Kagaku-Kogyo	4082 JP	38,500	$1,502,372.84 	1.10% 
 25	Net Other Assets / Cash		0	$91,794.82 	0.07%

[chrich12]

China restarts rare earth shipments to Japan

TOKYO (AP) -- China resumed exports to Japan of rare earth minerals crucial in high-tech manufacturing after a two-month de facto ban and a Japanese conglomerate announced a major supply deal with an Australian miner that will reduce dependence on Chinese production.

China currently controls 97 percent of the global output of rare earths, needed to produce everything from cell phones to hybrid cars. Resource-poor Japan was given a jolt in September when Beijing imposed a de facto ban after a diplomatic spat, and Tokyo immediately began seeking new trading partners.

News of the resumption came Wednesday as Sojitz Corp., a large Japanese conglomerate, announced a major tie-up with Australian mining company Lynas Corp. to secure supply for the next decade.

"Efforts that aim to diversify the regions and countries from where we import rare earths are intensifying, and I want to increase my efforts even more in this area to demonstrate solid, steady progress," said Japanese trade and industry minister Akihiro Ohata.

Japanese officials said that two ships bearing the minerals had left Chinese ports bound for Japan, signaling that exports had restarted. China has denied a ban, but Japanese companies say exports have been halted by a sudden increase in government inspections and paperwork.

Tokyo's efforts to find alternative supply have included talks with other Asian countries including Vietnam and Mongolia.

In Australia, Sojitz and Lynas have agreed to a deal in which the Japanese conglomerate would get exclusive import rights for over 70 percent of the 22,000-ton capacity at a rare earth mine operated by Lynas, the companies said in a joint press release.

Sojitz has agreed to seek up to $250 million in funding from Japan to develop the project, which is to begin initial operation next year and hit full capacity in 2012.

Japan's diplomatic row with China began in September, when its coast guard arrested a Chinese fishing boat captain after his ship collided with patrol boats near disputed islands.

The collision in the East China Sea plunged relations between the countries to their lowest level in years, despite Japan's eventual release of the boat captain.

China temporarily cut off ministerial-level contacts with Japan, repeatedly summoned Tokyo's ambassador to complain, and postponed talks on the joint development of undersea natural gas fields.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-restarts-rare-earth-apf-2988047894.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

[chrich12]

EU to press China over rare earths supplies

On Wednesday November 17, 2010, 6:33 am
BEIJING (AP) -- A European Union envoy said Wednesday he will press Chinese officials to maintain exports of rare earths needed by high-tech industry.

European companies are worried about Beijing's plans to reduce export quotas, said Matthew Baldwin, the union's director of market access. He was in Beijing for talks with Ministry of Commerce and other officials.

"We shall be expressing very clearly our concerns on this issue and stressing the importance of keeping that quota open," Baldwin told reporters. He said he wanted to find out about Chinese export plans for 2011.

China has about 30 percent of global rare earths deposits but accounts for about 97 percent of production. The United States, Canada and Australia have rare earths but stopped mining them in the 1990s as lower-cost Chinese supplies became available.

Global manufacturers that need rare earths to make mobile phones, lightweight batteries and other high-tech products were jolted when Beijing blocked shipments to Japan last month amid a squabble over disputed islands.

China's government says it needs to limit rare earths production to conserve supplies and reduce environmental damage from mining.

Baldwin said the EU was sympathetic to environment concerns but wanted to be sure foreign and Chinese companies were being treated equally.

"We have received a number of expressions of concern about the downward trend in the quota," he said.

China's export quota for rare earths this year is 24,280 tons, down 30 percent from 2009.

The Commerce Ministry denied a Chinese newspaper report that next year's quota would be cut by a further 30 percent but no official figure has been announced.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/EU-to-press-China-over-rare-apf-3736681859.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

[chrich12]

Rare Earth Bubble? Not much of an article, but some interesting opinions anyhow.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idAFN0423600520101108?rpc=44

[chrich12]

Interesting interview: Mickey Fulp Talks Energy & Rare Earths

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2010/10/Pages/Mickey-Fulp-Talks-Energy--Rare-Earths.aspx?channel=7

Snippet on REEs ...


"TER: You are also heavily involved in the rare earth element (REE) sector. What's your take on the sector at this point in time?

MF: It is the hottest commodity space around just like the Yukon is the hottest area play. Valuations have gone through the roof over the last couple of months. With a speculative play like this, it's necessary to separate the few contenders from the many pretenders early on. I think I've done that. The stocks have been on quite a run since early July, and the companies that I'm invested in average returns of about 300%. This entire sector is an overvalued speculation right now.

TER: Some might point to China's export restrictions, but that was last year. What's causing the sudden move in the sector this summer?

MF: China further restricted export quotas this summer. The country announced that it was going to crack down on the black market in south China, which is estimated to supply from 20%–33% of the market. This morning I heard an estimate that two-thirds of the supply of heavy rare earths (HREEs) is coming from the black market. China is trying to nationalize its heavy rare earth element sector and force the small and illegal miners to become parts of larger companies.

There is also increased awareness about the sector in the US. I think the US retail investor is driving this market. A final catalyst – and perhaps the biggest – was Molycorp Inc.'s (NYSE:MCP) initial public offering (IPO) on the New York Stock Exchange at a little less than $14/share. It was not well received and went down to $12. During the past six weeks, however, the stock has reached a high of $30.

TER: For investors who aren't already in rare earths, is it too late to get into the game?

MF: I don't think they're too late, but they have to be very selective. Let me give you some examples. In early July, you could've bought Rare Element Resources Ltd. (TSX.V:RES; NYSE.A:REE), Quest Rare Minerals Ltd. (TSX.V:QRM) and Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (TSX:AVL; OTCQX:AVARF) on weakness for less than $2. Quest went to something like $5.50 before it pulled back to about $4.50, and Avalon went above $4. Rare Element has been the real star—that stock touched $9.90. Buying stocks on weakness in a bull market is a strategy that will work.

There is a lot of risk involved in buying these stocks; however, Avalon just raised $30 million for its feasibility study. Quest is in the middle of raising $50 million, which will take it through feasibility and provide working capital.

Rare Element Resources also is looking at a major equity financing in the near term, something in the range of Quest and Avalon. These companies have gone to the next level. Probably my favorite in the sector right now is Scandinavian explorer Tasman Metals Ltd. (TSX.V:TSM; Fkft:T61; OTCPK:TASXF). It was a $0.51 stock and has gone as high as $2. It's pulled back now to around $1.90; I think there's upside with Tasman Metals.

TER: You mentioned risk in buying these stocks. Yet all of them seem to be going up and with some type of financing. The sector is really hot so companies probably get the capital easily. Where does the risk come in?

MF: There's extreme risk in this sector because it is highly dependent on the economic health of the world. We saw that with the "flash crash" and the Greek crisis in late May – late June. These better rare earth element explorers took major hits to their market capitalization. If we don't have a robust world economy, these stocks will suffer.

TER: One of the arguments I've heard is that rare earth metals are becoming a strategic metal for governments and military uses, so there's some impetus for the US to ensure it can produce its own rare earths. Are you discounting that argument?

MF: That's part of the equation in the US for sure, but less so outside of our country because US defense operations are so much larger than any other country in the world. What portion of HREE demand goes to the military? I have no idea.

Here's what I see—in the US, the United Steelworkers Union is asking the government to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) about China's export restrictions and there are ongoing congressional hearings, as well as the House passage of a bill that sets up studies and committees to institute national policies. I don't really consider those legal beagle efforts to be material changes to what we do in the US with respect to securing REE supply.

Meanwhile, the Japanese are buying – or trying to buy – offtake contracts from future producers and tying up exploration plays in Canada through JVs and in Vietnam. Japan has been very proactive, whereas, in the US, it looks like we'll just sic the lawyers and politicians on it.

TER: In your newsletter, you wrote that REE mines "will not be built and operate under the usual economic models of profitability or rate of return. The financial reward in this market is the downstream supply chain." To me, it sounds like this sector will be relying on offtake agreements. Once you get those, there'll be some type of long-term fixed prices.

MF: I think that has yet to play out. The market will likely operate on long-term offtake contracts, but these contracts are likely to be graduated for worldwide increases in prices – and for higher operating costs. I don't think it's necessary for them to be long-term fixed prices; they could be floating prices. Security of supply is the key ingredient here. I see offtake contracts as one way to do it – also strategic alliances with consumers of the products and/or consolidation of players within the industry. One company has a deposit. Another needs supply of the separated, or even the concentrated, oxides. Then you have another one down the line that makes magnets. Finally you have end-users, such as hybrid carmakers, wind turbine generators, and the fluorescent light industry. There are endless possibilities in terms of how this could work out.

Only a few deposits in the world are likely to be developed, and that depends somewhat on who is the first to develop strategic alliances or sell future products. All of the juniors I mentioned have robust deposits—but these explorers will not become miners without help. They are generally run by geologists and are adding engineering staff, but these projects are much larger than any junior could possibly fund. That's going to mean demand for partners on both the financial end and downstream supply chain.

TER: The companies you mentioned earlier, Rare Element, Avalon and Quest, all seem to be raising money. Do you expect that money to come from a JV partner or the ultimate REE user like a carmaker from Japan?

MF: In the case of Avalon and Quest, the funds have been raised largely through North American-based financial institutions. I don't know where Rare Element's money is going to come from. All I've heard is that it will be raising major money in the near term. At this point, the various entities comprising demand for REE have not been in the public eye. Financial institutions are funding the feasibility studies and prefeasibility studies.

TER: I'm intrigued that the ultimate users are not coming up with the financing. When would you see the offtake contracts coming into play?

MF: I expect them to come into play soon. Companies need to get to the prefeasibility stage where financial analysis can be done and capital expenditures and costs of production lead to net present values and internal rates of return that actually have solid studies behind them. We should see this happen within the next year for Quest and Rare Element. Avalon has published a prefeasibility study, but it is marginally economic.

TER: In rare earths, there's an advantage to being the first to produce. There are more than enough REEs around the world to meet demand, and the first to produce will get most of the market share. Do you agree?

MF: There are probably more metals in deposits right now than there is demand. This entire sector is based on future demand outside of China. I very much think that China is tightening exports because it sees internal demand increasing, especially for select HREEs, and won't be able to supply the world as it has for the last 20 or so years. We need a secure supply in the West. That's what's driving the sector right now.

TER: I understand you recently met Gino Roger, CEO of Midland Exploration Inc. (TSX.V:MD) and are now getting up to speed on the Midland story.

MF: It's a very well-run company, a prospect generator in Quebec, with one rare element project of significance that's joint-ventured with Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp. (JOGMEC). Their projects are very early, however.

TER: What else is the company doing?

MF: It also has gold and base metal plays. Its share price has touched about $2.

TER: Anything else you'd like to share with our readers in terms of either uranium or the rare earths?

MF: I'll give you another idea in the rare earth element space, Medallion Resources Ltd. (TSX.V:MDL). It has two projects in Northern Canada—a light rare earth element (LREE) project in Manitoba and an HREE project in Eastern Labrador. Its share price has tripled since the last financing. There is some risk but it's still a penny stock, so it might be something speculators want to take a look at.

TER: How far along are Medallion's projects?

MF: Very early stage. The project in Manitoba has a few drill holes. It is a JV with Rare Element Resources. Medallion CEO Bill Bird was the chief executive of Rare Element when that drilling was done around 2006. Its play in Eastern Labrador in the Red Wine complex is at the drill-targeting stage with geophysics, prospecting and sampling being done. And it has a low market capitalization right now, which the more advanced companies in this space do not have."

[chrich12]

Nice to have a little good luck on occasion. At the open I was having sellers remorse, but that quickly turned based on the news of the day. I'm a little torn on MCP as well. If things settle and sentiment turns positive again, I'll probably be looking to re-enter along with a few of the others. MLLOF has been my biggest winner lately, and I definitely plan to re-enter at some point. Happy trading as well.

Chad

[chrich12]

Rare Earth & Strategic Metals ETF Slips in Debut

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2010/10/Pages/Rare-Earth--Strategic-Metals-ETF-Slips-in-Debut.aspx?channel=7

Interesting snippet ..

"The launch was reminiscent of the last major initial public offering in the rare earths sector when Molycorp Inc. saw its share fall 8.2% to $12.85 in its first day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange in July. Molycorp has since traded as high as $40.90, a level reached early Thursday. It ended trading for the day down 12.11% to $33.89."

[Citrati]

Congratulations on timing of your taking profits.
Should find some nice entries to profit again.
Agree those are money makers long term.
I am done with MCP as I think I can leverage positions greater in other players going forward. JMO
Keep up the positive $ trading.

[chrich12]

I'm sitting in the same boat. I bought a little REMX, but still own 3 REEs, and will look to buy back into MLLOF, REE, and MCP that I bailed on yesterday.

[Citrati]

Keep in mind that this etf is only 35% ree's. It is therefore weighted to be more heavily influenced by outside performance. While I will keep my eye on the make-up of stocks in this index, I will maintain my own portfolio of ree stocks. This will allow for greater returns than I believe this index can provide.
Other opinions, please share.
Good Trades for All

[chrich12]

I do as well. Short term may be bumpy, especially if it is coupled with a broader market retracement, but long term should be just fine. I don't see Japan or others looking to rely on China, or to move any propreitary green mfg there. Supplies should be sufficiently low in China that they can't also dump on the market and re-drive non-Chinese mining outfits out of REEs again.

[JustGoLong]

Agreed...but the answer to the REE issue will not be China lifting its embargo.

THe problem remains...and the fact that China has already used REEs as a political threat has gotten the attention of a lot of people.

This is a huge strategic issue with huge political implications!

I look for REEs to be a great investment in the long term!

[chrich12]

Here's the likely explanation, taken from a post by bbets on the REE board.

"BAOTOU, China — The Chinese government abruptly ended on Thursday its unannounced embargo of exports of crucial strategic minerals to the United States, Europe and Japan, although shipments to Japan still encountered some difficulties, four rare earth industry officials said. "
...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/29/business/energy-environment/29rare.html?_r=2&hp

[JustGoLong]

REMX ($19.87) down 3% from its initial open at $20.50
Vol...1.5M

Watching and evaluating!

[chrich12]

Here's the real link to the fact sheet and other information: http://vaneck.com/search_results.aspx?searchtext=remx

[chrich12]

REMX. Link to fact sheet :http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=56023535

Initial Holdings: