Qudian (QD)

[PURA VIDA]

A very good technical money maker thus far.....

The fundamentals are beginning to come back into play as well since the China trade tariffs and deals are being negotiated.

20,50,200's have been pretty accurate zooming in and out for short or longer term entries and exits.

QD settled the week at 5.38 and the MACD is starting to curl back upward as it has before each new run higher. Barring any negative news on Tuesday, QD may run to make new highs on this move upward.

[PURA VIDA]

So far - So good.

Following technicals nearly perfectly.

[PURA VIDA]

Today should be quite interesting. Being the final day of the year, it will be the last day for tax loss selling. The gaps have been filled and the fight between the bulls and the bears stopped at the 4.38 level on Friday.

At this point, if there is massive selling for end of year losses, QD will need to hold above 4.00 I'm going to be a buyer if we hold above 4.00

It's been pretty easy to make money on these smaller bounce plays. But, I would really love to make some BIG cake on a NICE bounce here after this end of year, and short selling ends.

Qudian 2019 Guidance and $300MM share buyback

Qudian Short Selling Information

[PURA VIDA]

Gap is now filled as we touched 4.35 today with the broad range sell off.
Now to see if momentum can keep us up going into year end tax selling.
QD trading at 4.55 at the moment with a bounce after hitting 4.35at 2:30

Shorts reduced short positions by over 2 million shares this week.

http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=qd&submit=Short+Quote

It's getting interesting now.

[PURA VIDA]

I believe right now, end of year selling coupled with a group who are heavily short selling this company are pushing the price back down to fill a gap that was left from 11/20 to 11/21 at a price of $4.40 to 4.67 Once this gap is filled - I am thinking the downtrend will end and a new uptrend will begin (especially if the trade war lightens up). It is quite possible that the stock will go back to $17-$18 per share within a year. So, I wait til the first of the year and will buy when my indicators tell me to. You might want to follow this one and see if it would work for you too. The company is Qudian, Inc. and they are a chinese small business and internet finance company. They just released their guidance for next year - and it was quite impressive.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/qudian-inc-provides-guidance-full-100000046.html

[PURA VIDA]

It surely appears that the massive short campaign is going to take
this right back down to fill the gap left on 11/20-11/21 that was
4.40 to 4.67

I guess I will be a buyer there. Have made some money on some flips
but I would rather be a long-term holder once the gap is filled.

http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=qd&submit=Short+Quote

https://tinyurl.com/y7xooxqa

I'm just not sure how low they will be able to push it,
especially since this next week will be tax write off week
as well.

[finesand]

have a look at Repurchase Rule 10b-18, just DD'ed it for $CMCM (similar thing at P/E 4 '18)

https://finesand.wordpress.com/2018/12/05/cheetah-mobile-cmcm-a-financially-solid-high-growth-company/

[ClayTrader]

* * $QD Video Chart 12-13-18 * *

Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video

[tdeck]

Profits/revenues growing Q after Q company continuing to buy back shares throughout 2019 and institutions starting or adding to their positions Citigroup went for holding 13K to near 1 mil, Credit Suisse from 50K to near 600K in November,institutions and finds load as bears cry sell.

Buy the dips 2019 exact opposite to to charts from 2018.

https://fintel.io/sob/us/qd

Peace out.

[PURA VIDA]

Pre-Market/overnight rally on great news!
2019 Guidance & $300MM additional share buyback

[PURA VIDA]

Shorts definitely kicked our asses today.

[PURA VIDA]

What price target have analysts set for QD?

5 brokers have issued 12-month price objectives for Qudian's stock. Their predictions range from $7.00 to $36.00. On average, they expect Qudian's stock price to reach $17.75 in the next twelve months. This suggests a possible upside of 248.0% from the stock's current price.

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/QD/

[tdeck]

They see the writing on the wall, looking good 2019 IMO will be exact opposite chart to last years.

Peace out.

[PURA VIDA]

Shorts are covering.....

Short Interest (Shares Short) 8,063,000

Short Interest Ratio (Days To Cover) 7.9

Short Percent of Float 16.99 %

Short % Increase / Decrease -17 %

Short Interest (Shares Short) - Prior 9,686,600

[PURA VIDA]

This is going to be interesting to watch unfold. With 20.41% of the float shorted @9,686,600 shares short and 5.9 days to cover. Wednesday, 900,000 shares were covered. Interesting indeed. Early trading going lower.

[tdeck]

Well when they run up good like that there is a pull back, this one may not be as severe as it did have quite the pull back and breather and consolidate quite a bit 4.90-5.05

I will add some of this weeks TSLA short profits tomorrow but will wait to see how far they push it and push it they will, that and swing traders will cause a dip but it's normal and necessary, going to be a great year all. If you add wait for the pull back, IMO.

Peace out.

[Oger]

Oh Clay, go make some hay, whata ya say?
You pop on every stock every day.
You live by the bay, how’s Jay?
And Kay?
You leave your cards where they lay?
Did you trade well in the month of May?
I bet you made them pay!
Have you talked to Ray?
How much did he have to say?
How’s Tay?
Hope things go your way!

Peace ,out.

[ClayTrader]

* * $QD Video Chart 11-21-18 * *

Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video

[tdeck]

That or an institution, someone bought a huge block and shorts stop losses had to cover all the way to 6.15 LOL. They are trying to take down AH but in the big scheme of things that is meaningless and they know it, the truth was shown today in both the ER and in the block buying.

I will catch any serious dips for sure from here on out with money I make from TSLA shorts and momo plays, I short that TSLA every day, momo guys run it up I help take it down, its like a roller coaster, craziest stock I ever seen but pays good he he.

Take care see all on Friday.

[Striker77]

Wow!! That had to be company buying at the end there. I bet Ttrades will tell a story also.

[tdeck]

Agreed, they are proving all the naysayers wrong, will be keeping an eye on institutional/funds adds/starts of positions, that and buybacks will be extremely strong going forward.

Peace out

Happy Thanksgiving as well.

[Striker77]

Long time coming here, thankful after more than a year of cost averaging. Alot of possibility here and the asian market is allready in the toilet. Nowhere to go but up. Glad they will still be doing buybacks all year still also. Will help.

[tdeck]

This is going to be the year the fintechs prove the naysayers wrong, rev/earning continue to grow. Love that QD is keeping the share repurchase plan going and bears make it that much cheaper for the company to get more shares for the $$, win win.

Never have thought of a short selling group being good for a stock/company but in this case they are.

Institutions and funds been buying lately adding to their positions another good sign long term. Credit Suisse and Citigroup upping their positions by 1000% and 7000% respectively, they can jump in like that I will add a few to any bear frenzy pushes too.

https://fintel.io/sob/us/qd

Catch the dips if you add, don't halp the bears slapping the ask.

Peace out.

[Greenleaf1]

I bought this months ago because it had A and A+ ratings. It almost seems rigged.

[Striker77]

Im with you man, it really has ticked me off but I just keep trying to cost average. I am not defending anything because I cuss this thing out daily, but every indicator of the actual balance sheet says buy to me. Know the feeling. Today was brutal.

[tdeck]

This is getting a little absurd, I jumped in when it hit a 252 low about 6 weeks back, been adding a little here and there thought 5 was the lowest it would go as ridiculous as that price was.

Today going deeper with money from shorts, what this has to o with Chinese tariffs is beyond me, and I know articles have been negative, but, seriously? Its a cash cow with revenue growth one should be proud of. One day people we will win and we will win big.

Peace lout.

[finesand]

Hard to bounce on the $200B Trump'ed (o8>

Assuming company is OK (as DD'ed), downside probably $5 before the upside comes into light.

What a drama (o8>

[MWM]

It’s not exactly bouncing...

[finesand]

you think? (o8>

[MWM]

Tanking Hard again! I think she loses $5 this week!

[finesand]

Clay - a fair assessment trading wise

Yes, the high volume plunge and sideways move also with relative high volume indicates capitulation and certain 'common sense' nice price sentiment.

It dipped a little below $6 even, but investors bought back in w/ enthusiasm and probably even FOMO.

Following this stock for a while, Friday was finally the trigger moment to buy a few chunks here - especially while reviewing the bear thesis (fear) and company's actual results.

https://finesand.wordpress.com/2018/08/24/qudian-inc-qd-2q18-earnings-call/

Let's see where this consolidates, IMHO around $7.51

[finesand]

Qudian Inc. (QD) – 2Q18 Earnings Call Notes

https://finesand.wordpress.com/2018/08/24/qudian-inc-qd-2q18-earnings-call/

Initial Conclusion

- Company is Profitable and Growing Fast!
- At P/E ~4.4 $6/sh and even lower forward P/E this stock is grossly undervalued
- Even performing Lending as a Service (SaaS) to 3rd party off-balance-sheet banks
- Utilizing Big Data user collection and AI for themselves plus as-a-service
- Stock is under heavy short attack 48% SI
- Latest non-renewal of Alipay ‘client sponsoring’ is misinterpreted
– Enough existing clients and new additions, more than they can serve
– Less costs
– Unique Branding
– Continuous cooperation with Alipay (Data analysis, etc)
- No P2P liquidity issues, which caused havoc lately in China
…. (more to come)

Amazing how this stock got destroyed over the last months, mostly over the China P2P disaster. I followed this one since its IPO more or less and was expecting a disaster 2Q18 result, it is Friday after all ??
But after reading I realized that they simply made it, excellent profitable and growing business.

[ClayTrader]

* * $QD Video Chart 08-24-18 * *

Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video

[QuaestusMagnusPupa]

$QD woke up today. Seems to be interest coming from somewhere.

[donwillems]

I'd short this one for now... They will need to attract capital from third parties and that won't be banks.
And the lending business isn't so profitable for now so I don't see many people lending money to this company.

I'm going to keep an eye though, as you say, might be interesting in the future or for a small gamble :)

[Intotheblack]

Yeah this is more of a tough call. Depends on a lot of things... could be more pain here short term but the long term growth will win out here. imo

[donwillems]

Wouldn't buy it, very good article about them below.

Basically they have questionable management, government regulations that will set them back a whole lot, a much stronger competition.

read the article, I wouldn't touch it (with too much $$$$)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4133221-qudian-bargain-falling-knife

[Intotheblack]

Any bottom feeders watching this?

[Striker77]

I havent sold a share. Big future here and im in the green anyways.

[rstar]

big squeeeeeze underway!!! 17.62!

[Striker77]

I know right!? Id be gettin paid before that but fact is the CEO is swimming in capital so its not like any difference to him. They owe it to IPO buyers to get back to proper range anyways. Love the expected numbers for 2018 especially the auto numbers.

[MWM]

Perhaps a little Optimistic! But I like it!

[Striker77]

Boom!!! What a future. Great numbers!

[rstar]

CEO foregoing compensation until market cap is over 100 Billion!

market cap currently appx 5 billion

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/qudian-inc-reports-fourth-quarter-070000650.html


$$$QD!!!

[MWM]

It is definitly getting interesting!

[Striker77]

Earnings are 8am Monday so make sure you have your pile locked up by Friday close! The chance of it going up are much better than it going down.

[rstar]

QD giddyap! 15.84! where will this go when spectacular earnings come out?!

[MWM]

Nice! Let's see if it can hold for Once!

[Striker77]

Wow! Heavy in the green now and still a week til earnings!

[Striker77]

Good, im ready! More giant T trades after hours today.