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50% in yesterday - NDX.
Looking for more long today
Have you ever out smarted yourself?
Well yeah I took a short position a few months ago that I still haven't recovered from.
The markets selling off the past few days, I will be looking to get back into a long position tonight - will see what the models have to say. About 50% as it currently stands.
September volumes have spiked well above plan. FWIW.
Everyone has resorted to selling on ebay..... :)
Have you ever out smarted yourself? I've been doing that since July. Don't go long in a downtrend and don't go short in and uptrend. Pretty simple stuff really.
Couple of nice gainers, but some significant lumps too. I sold part of the RYDEX short at the AM price, but kept 2/3's of that position on. I might me negative from July after today.
We have a positive MA crossover.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99106873380
Good info, thanks for sharing.
Anecdotal: I am employed by the nations largest overnight shipper as a Systems Engineers. We are often considered a bellwether for the economy.
September volumes have spiked well above plan. FWIW.
Put on a short RYDEX position at the close based on the strong Neg D on the hourly charts. That said, it will be a quick in and out.
We still look to be moving higher.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NASI&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p31021554740
Took some lumps on the RYDEX short, but made some dough on qld and qid. I sold the position at the am cutoff. I formalized my methodology this weekend to a more simple strategy defining ST, MT and LT strategies.
Here's to having a profitable Sept - Dec.
This chart is not looking too supportive of the short scenario.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p44406268867
You can change it to a weekly view, but it's not any more promising.
NASI has always imo been a better tool to pick bottoms than tops. that said im short to, but not because of nasi (gg)
Yes, went long the am rydex price thurs and sold it at the am price today. I entered a short position here at the close.
I don't like the way this chart looks from a long perspective.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NASI&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&id=p31188234394&a=79741980&listNum=53
had a great week with shorts on mon, hedged on tues and full long wed thurs and fri for an 8% plus week...so i would say thats an affirmative.
moving to full short for tuesdays trading. not expecting much of a gain but should it develop i wont complain
Anybody else score on this scalp???
Back to cash for next week . . .
Liking the selloff today, I may get a signal in the 100% long range. Haven't been that highly invested in awhile . . .
Hi Kanuti,
Maybe were still on the same page. The internals eased up some at the close, and I stayed in cash.
We use to be right on with our signals, now this is twice in a row yours are hitting before mine. Your last one triggered, was a winner and I missed out.
Looks like a RAIM scalp opportunity upon us - about 50% long for manana
Hey Steve,
Maybe a 6% portfolio drawdown - will need to do the math as I withdrew some money for lifestyle improvement.
there were a few over 3% in the funds which beat all domestic indexes even with only 1.5X weighting, but nothing ended up too huge
what was your drawdown on the last ndx short trade?
i got spanked for 23% and have since made back 15 of it. a nice red day tomorrow would get me back to new high neighborhood but i think it is a low probablitly event for another day or so
I was looking over that list of sectors that you gave me awhile back - not really any big winners today.
Back into cash after scoring a measly 0.7%
wireless was way up in am and faded like a boat in the arizona sun. moved back to full short position with mix of international and domestic 2X indexes with bulk in international. believe i am probably a day or so early but WTF!
Nice job on the long scalp. It was there for me to take switching from short to long, but I did not. We're in a treacherous area. Gaps above so I am mostly on the sideline.
I don't know if this will show up, but pairing the long makes sense.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAADV:$NADEC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p12671973530&a=95639197
We went to Palm Springs - hot as hell, but great deals at resort hotels. Kids we're swimming the entire time.
I am looking to escape the long today, anticipating a resumption of selling. Just watch, they'll selloff at the close and NDX will finish at about +0.5% - this is the weird no mans land where buying, selling and staying put all make sense . . .
Good luck with mobile telecom . . .
moving half shorts to mobile telecom sector. had a nice 4% day. How was vaca? i wont be staying long for long...few days max then back to darkside
50% long position today - RAIM scalp.
Have a great vacation. Yes this hasnt been much fun.
Well,
Going on vacation tomorrow, so I thought that todays modest selloff would be a good time to end this misery.
Will be scalping with a Bullish slant for the time being. Additional selling tomorrow could intiate a long scalp trade . . .
thanks for details.
The 56 was as high as it got on July 15 and also July 16. Since then the reading has been meandering primarily from the upper 20's to upper 40's, however the past 3 days it has dropped into the teens as internal up vs. down ratios havent been as extreme.
The fact that reading have been so high so long, I really can't read much into it. My data only goes back to 1999.
There was a similar period in late 1999 which ultimately lead to the final market top in early 2000.
Late 2002 there was a stretch which moved the NDX from 804 on 10/7 to 1125 on 11/27 before backing down to 985 on 12/31.
Our V-bottom from earlier this year might resemble 1987, but I have no data for that period.
here is the post i was referring to. it was already at fairly extreme levels and then the ndx went up 6 more days in a row before having a minor red day followed by sideways to up...sooooo i figured it had to go to pretty extreme levels. If its not too much trouble i would like to know where it got to and how that compares to past extremes
thanks
steve
Posted by: Namiar
In reply to: Steve who wrote
Date: 7/15/2009 5:53:41 PM
Post # of 37050
Hi Steve,
My 5 day OB/OS indicator closed at +56. I have conditional formatting set to highlight any instances >55. There are only about 15 since Y2K, with about 10 of those instances between 2001 and 2003.
If the pattern hold to form, tomorrow will be a modest up day, followed by a downer the following day. The downer can be huge or modest (in the 1% area).
Wow I was ready to "capitulate" early this morning.
Sorry for not updating you on the readings. I am extremely busy on the day job these days and sometimes I don't do daily updates particularly if there is no need. Problem is if I do not update daily, then I need to download the historical internals info from Masterdata, which requires some massaging.
I typically trade off of the 5-day reading, however I also track 3, 10 and 20. The 10-DMA was red for 6 days straight - I have conditional formatting for readings > +30.
Nothing like that since 2004 - in fact 2007 and 2008 this redzone was not hit once.
be careful what you wish for. Hey i had asked you for an update on the level of a reading of yours two or three times and you didnt respond. whats up?
Choad,
I am looking at 1010 which is a bit of an overshoot. After a pullback there is still some upside IMO.
I ignored this chart which is pretty obvious in it's message.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nasi&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27601887629
Looks like the Oct./Nov 980/1000 level is acting as some pretty tough resistance.....it will interesting to see if it can smash through or a correction before another assault......we should know soon......maybe this pig has lips! LOL
Thank goodness for the twice a day trading at RYDEX. I was able to reload several times, but as of the close I am probably down @ 1 to 1.1% so I guess I should be glad.
Like you, this is one of those rare times where my indicators did not work...or did not work yet perhaps. Bull run or not, what's holding this pig up?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89905082681
My signal was flip flopping back and forth and did end up with a sell but it was so close I chose to hold on. That usually does not end well for me. Maybe this time will be different.
Markets rallied some and I'm still holding shorts!
I may be vacating the short today - much of the OB has been worked off over the past 4 trading days.
Lessee how the final hour shapes up.
Despite todays gain (assuming markets stay down) I look to take a sizable loss on the trade.
I am staying with the trade. I went 20% short Friday, sold half at the AM RYDEX cut off on Monday and then added 10% more short at the close Monday and Tuesday. At some point the mid BB always gets a touch. I am sticking with this short. I can't remember being this overbought for this long for a while. Some divergences building in too.
Even in April of 2007 we pulled back to the mid BB.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31751323030
indeed it is. I had asked a couple times about the follow on readings but didnt get any response. What have they done teh last 3 or 4 days and is it highest on record?
Could it be da boyz are looking to break the NDX record up streak of 13 days set 18 years ago?
My overbought triggers hit a few days ago also and there is no doubt this trade will result in a loss.
Well this is getting painful - markets continue to remain significantly OB.
I guess this is how DaBoys are playing the game now.
definitely overbought in short term. it can be relieved by going sideways, but sure would appreciate some nice selling on monday. I have memories of past mondays post options expiraton where it is common for the market to go opposite the move into opex. since this was definitely a rally into today i am anticipating selling and am remaining short.
We are definitely at an inflection point. I will be going short at the close unless we dump into the last 30 min. Daily chart is setting up for a move up, but we are at resistance. I am taking the market one ideal set up at a time here as it looks like we will get a swift move here...I just couldn't tell you in what direction. IMO we are waaay overbought in the very short term. Risk/reward heavily favors the shorts here.
mr market forgot what a down day was. what levels is it up to now two up days after the +56 reading
<which I had hoped it wouldn't
that makes two of us. At one point i was up 2%. by the close after the 2 pm lovefest i had dropped an estimated 1.42% and lost my positve streak so that was a double bummer. i went from 3 short internationals to 6 short funds adding mid rut and ndx and remained full short all 2x funds. futes off again tonight, not that it helped yesterday one iota
what was the reading today on your thang? had to be even higher or more extreme. heres to hitting it nice tomorrow. i would love for indexes to be down 1-2% for a 2-4% payday and another new ATH, but market seems hell bent on going striaght up so will take some luck
The short play pretty much going according to the roadmap, which I had hoped it wouldn't.
As OB conditions continue to run way hot, I doubled down to 100% per the plan.
We may get as much as a 1.5% pullback tomorrow, which would follow the map pretty well.
lots of day left but at this point i am having a decent day. i think odds are good that there will be a last hour rally that could wipe out gains unless mr market can find a way to sell to lower lows between 12 and 2 pm. if that works out then i should still have a profit at eod
will most likely look to stay full short for tommorow, but with some additional funds in the mix
NDX essentially at a new March rally high outperforming the spx as it has for many many moons
asia up the 2% per the CUV (catch up value) we imposed upon them due to our action today
so it is in rare territory indeed. i noticed futes now down about a half percent so we may make some dough manana. lots of time between now and close and some key earnings in premarket. getting off to a start like this in AH is promising though.
i eked out the slightest of gains as it looks like i had some unfavorable pricings, but as a result i am green for the day and have a chance for my elusive 5 for 5.
i was mispriced unfavorably on 5 of 6 funds today. ndx was the exception at breakeven but received no favorable pricing on any funds...sigh
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