Profound Medical Corp (PROF)

[hayfarmer]

CMS now paying for procedures at some facilities. The company has estimated that 5% of patients are willing to pay cash. That means 95% of potential patients won't do this unless insurance covers it. So getting CMS coverage drastically increases the potential patient population. So why is it down? I have no clue but I wish the company would PR this instead of just mentioning it in a conf call which most people don't listen to.

[janeyH]

i am buying the dip

[Prfmf1]

I'm looking forward to his next research report. I want to read what he has to say after today's conference call.

[hayfarmer]

MONDAY, MARCH 1, 2021 | MARKETBEAT

Profound Medical Corp. (NASDAQ:PROF) - Raymond James raised their FY2023 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for shares of Profound Medical in a research note issued on Wednesday, February 24th. Raymond James analyst R. Sarugaser now anticipates that the company will post earnings of $1.04 per share for the year, up from their previous estimate of $1.02. Raymond James also issued estimates for Profound Medical's FY2024 earnings at $2.73 EPS.

Several other research analysts have also weighed in on PROF. Zacks Investment Research raised Profound Medical from a "strong sell" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Tuesday, November 3rd. Lake Street Capital upped their price target on Profound Medical from $27.00 to $32.00 in a research report on Monday, January 25th. Finally, Alliance Global Partners upped their price target on Profound Medical from $20.25 to $28.25 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research report on Thursday, January 7th. Two analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating, four have assigned a buy rating and one has issued a strong buy rating to the company's stock. Profound Medical presently has an average rating of "Buy" and an average price target of $26.45.

Shares of Profound Medical stock opened at $22.03 on Monday. The firm has a market capitalization of $445.20 million, a PE ratio of -18.83 and a beta of 1.45. Profound Medical has a 12-month low of $6.53 and a 12-month high of $28.97. The stock's fifty day moving average is $25.71 and its 200-day moving average is $20.62.

A number of hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the business. Letko Brosseau & Associates Inc. increased its position in Profound Medical by 1,725.4% in the 4th quarter. Letko Brosseau & Associates Inc. now owns 839,700 shares of the company's stock worth $17,262,000 after purchasing an additional 793,700 shares during the last quarter. Gagnon Securities LLC boosted its stake in shares of Profound Medical by 6.5% during the 3rd quarter. Gagnon Securities LLC now owns 779,533 shares of the company's stock worth $13,751,000 after acquiring an additional 47,818 shares in the last quarter. Deerfield Management Company L.P. Series C bought a new stake in shares of Profound Medical during the 3rd quarter worth about $12,260,000. Blackcrane Capital LLC boosted its stake in shares of Profound Medical by 73.6% during the 4th quarter. Blackcrane Capital LLC now owns 341,767 shares of the company's stock worth $7,029,000 after acquiring an additional 144,843 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Royce & Associates LP boosted its stake in shares of Profound Medical by 2,910.0% during the 4th quarter. Royce & Associates LP now owns 301,000 shares of the company's stock worth $6,193,000 after acquiring an additional 291,000 shares in the last quarter. 35.90% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

[Prfmf1]

I also like the fact they are doing 50% more procedures ( 60 ) on average at existing sites.

[hayfarmer]

I agree mostly because getting any insurance coverage is huge. Any insurance coverage, especially from CMS expands the potential patients a lot.

I wish they would have guided on installations by the end of 2021 but after the covid debacle in 2020 I understand. They did say they had signed contracts from this year (pretty sure it was plural) that have not been installed yet and plenty of interest.

[janeyH]

janey is VERY happy with call ... we'll see what the market thinks tomorrow

[janeyH]

quoting all figures in USD now

[janeyH]

83mm cash on hand

[janeyH]

accrued for bonuses for hitting targets added to expenses in Q4

[janeyH]

i love the strategy of going to market through the teaching hospitals

[janeyH]

call sounds bullish
- more revenue tan initially reported
- centers using interim CMMS codes - niiiiice
- more contracts closed and listed as operating centers on website
- international potential

nice call

[Prfmf1]

Google Raymond James profound medical update.

[hayfarmer]

Can you tell me where you found the eps estimates? I have an Ameritrade account and could find that the price target was reiterated but couldn't find a report or even summary.

Thanks

[janeyH]

red 1.14

[Prfmf1]

what did you see in after hours?

[janeyH]

whoa WTF - just saw after hours

[janeyH]

it's tomorrow buckeroos - the waiting and crystal-balling will end for this cycle. see you at 4 PM

[Prfmf1]

Thank you for trying! I was able to find it and I like what he had to say. He boosted FY2024 ESP to $3.42 up from $3.38 a share.

[fausthimself]

Sorry, I can’t provide a link. The TD WebBroker research page gives me this information. The only other recent recommendation listed came from Frank Takkinen of Lake Street. He maintained a buy rating for PROF on 1/24 with a price target of $32.00. There is one more recommendation listed from Raj Denhoy of Jeffries, who initiated a buy rating last September with a price target of $24.57.

[Prfmf1]

Thank you for sharing. Is it possible for you to share the RJ link? If Rahul reiterated his buy recommendation yesterday then I'm sure he is expecting good news from Tuesdays call.

[fausthimself]

As a matter of fact, Rahul Sarugaser from Raymond James reiterated his buy recommendation yesterday with a price target of $34.08 USD.

I’ll remain optimistic about the upcoming call. Maybe it won’t be bad news. Perhaps they will announce that Sonalleve has been approved to treat lymph nodes.

[Prfmf1]

Profound Medical to participate in March Virtual Investor Conferences.
The timing of these are very interesting. The first one is with Raymond James 42nd annual institutional investors conference the day after the conference call and the second one is a day later with Cowen's 41st annual health care conference.

[Prfmf1]

We are down over 25% since our recent new high. I'm sure some it has to do with market conditions and stop orders. I still believe we are going to receive some negative news. If that is the case, I hope most of it is already built into the price of the stock. I think it's to late to sell here and to early to buy at this level. I want to wait to see the numbers and hear what they have to say on the conference call. You have to ask yourself with a 25% drop why aren't the analyst's reiterating their buy recommendations.

[Prfmf1]

This is really bad guys!!

[janeyH]

and WAAAAYYYY below 20 day SMA

[hayfarmer]

They raised revenue guidance for the last quarter. I've never seen a company do that and then miss that number. In fact they usually beat it.

Meanwhile we are down 10 of the last 12 days in a market where the high flyers have been getting sold off. We are also below the lower bollinger band. I think we are oversold at this point and am hoping for a bounce at a minimum

[Prfmf1]

I think you can buy the dips if you are long term like me. We just don't know how much lower this will go. We know markets look 6 months out and for that reason I'm surprised we are not doing better. We did great when Covid-19 was really bad and now that it seems we are getting it under control we are going the opposite way.

Larry

[janeyH]

well, what do we know and what do we not know ...

we know:
- they will miss on number of sites
- they have not closed the loop on insurance codes (would have been PR'd, i think)
- they are performing better per-site than expected

we don't know
- will the site performance make up for fewer sites - it did in q2 and Q3
- what sites are in the sales pipeline
- can they continue to justify a $400mm-$500mm market cap on weak number of sites
- will investors grow weary of slow site numbers


buy the dip?

[Prfmf1]

Markets were up big today, and once again ( I'm not sure how many days in a row we have closed down ) we closed in the red on volume that has been way above average. My feeling is we are not going to like what we hear on the conference call.

Larry

[janeyH]

On my calendar

[Prfmf1]

3/02/21-conference call at 4.30.

[janeyH]

I did not know that they had announced call details yet

[Prfmf1]

Janey, a lot of green numbers today. I'm surprised at this point we haven't had a move to the upside. I'm looking forward to next weeks conference call.

Larry

[Prfmf1]

I'm hoping we can at least close at 23 or above. We have been beaten down pretty good.

[Prfmf1]

I have to wonder why RJ isn't banging the table for their clients to buy at this level!

[janeyH]

A LOT of red numbers out there today!

[janeyH]

nope - didnt do a big bite - little nibble - will little nibble again today probly

[Prfmf1]

I hope you didn't take a bite.

[janeyH]

I was just looking at that same trend line and thinking ... hmmm, that looks tasty

[Prfmf1]

Stock closed at 24.36. You can buy 400 shares in the after market for $24.00. Not sure what's going on here but I'm not very happy. Is it possible that their sales for the 4th quarter came in less then they thought? Are they having a bad 1st quarter?

Larry

[herwilagn]

About to test the 50 MA on the daily. If it holds tomorrow, I'd load up more shares if I had the funds. Hopefully it'll stay in this area until earnings (looking to buy more next week with anticipated profits from another stock).
If I had to choose one stock I'd set and forget, it would be this one - diamond hands, people!

[hayfarmer]

Agreed, they have some highly reputable partners. I think they are behind on installations though. Last year at this time the company was estimating 20 by year end 2020. The analyst was estimating 10. Later in the year the company reduced it's goal to 10. Here we are at the end of Feb 2021 and we have 7 plus one trial site. No doubt covid is a major cause and hopefully that's all there is to it.

I wish they would PR these new installations too. Most investors likely unaware. Would be a good question to submit to their IR department before the next conf call.

[janeyH]

it was just getting ahead of itself - mkt cap was over $500mm and they are not that mature a co.

[Prfmf1]

The stock has dropped from $28.97 to $24.10. Someone thinks there is something not to like. I hope I'm wrong and still holding long term.

[janeyH]

it is really tempting to take a big bite here - Yale not factored into PPS, (i am guessing) a great Q4/YE report coming, and what is not to love here - mgmt is doing what they said they would be doing???

maybe i just keep nibbling

[Prfmf1]

A press release once in a while might help! Outside of the company you might be the first person to discover we have a new site up and running.

[janeyH]

Hopkins? Yale? they are certainly getting some big names involved - this is not Billy-Bob's drive through colon care

[hayfarmer]

New site open. Yale Cancer center. Not sure whey we're not up on this but the market is weak today.

https://tulsaprocedure.com/yale-cancer-center/

[Prfmf1]

Thanks you Hayfarmer. I'm hoping we get a positive update on the conference call.