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I think you might be light? 25 machines x 4 per week = 100 weekly procedures. 100 x13 weeks in quarter = 1,300 procedures x $8,500 each is more like $11M. But I will take half of that.
833,000 shares traded in one trade at 5.05 today. It happened around 3:30 pm.
Could that mean a bottom? It has moved up from there.
By rough calculation if they had 25 machines operating this entire qtr at 4 procedures a week with 8500 rev per procedure, it would be about $5 million revenue. I doubt we get that but am hoping we get a significant revenue bump in the next report.
And today's PR, link below, indicates they could have up to 35 US based installations of TULSA by end of year. Seems bullish, but the PPS indicates otherwise. Still got a small core, but this has turned into a longer than anticipated pay day.
https://www.stocktitan.net/news/PROF/profound-medical-announces-changes-to-its-commercial-organization-to-e8o4jupl4u33.html
Update from Raymond James dated Sept 6. Sounds like the delay in applying for CPT code is not really that bad for reasons he outlines below.
A minor setback is not enough to sway Raymond James analyst Rahul Sarugaser from his bullish stance on Profound Medical (Profound Medical Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:PROF). Sarugaser delivered a company update on Tuesday where he reiterated an “Outperform” rating on Profound Medical, saying the upcoming 2023 year will be catalyst-rich for the stock.
Profound Medical is commercializing a novel, non-invasive image-guided therapeutic technology called the TULSA-PRO for prostate cancer procedures. The company, which trades on both the NASDAQ and the TSX, has received 510(k) marketing authorization by the FDA for the TULSA-PRO and is currently ramping up its installed base across the United States.
Profound Medical released an update on September 2 on the path to reimbursement under the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMA) for the TULSA-PRO. Profound announced that it would be withdrawing its Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) Category 1 application from consideration at the American Medical Association (AMA) 2022 meeting in September, saying instead that the application will take place next year.
The decision moves CMS reimbursement out to likely early 2025 instead of early 2024.
“As the pursuit of a CPT Category 1 code continues to be an important part of our efforts to secure longer-term reimbursement for TULSA from third-party payors, we believe that the proposed hospital payment under C9734 is sufficient to help further advance adoption of the technology in the near- to mid-term in the United States,” said Arun Menawat, CEO and Chairman of Profound, in a press release.
But Sarugaser said the company’s decision is not really a delay in PROF’s timeline. He explains that an underappreciated risk on PROF was that applying now could have resulted in the AMA opting to award the TULSA-PRO with a Category 3 CPT code for emerging technologies instead of the sought-after Category 1, the difference being that reimbursement under Cat-3 is at the full discretion of the payor and, importantly, that granting this status would delay PROF’s ability to reapply for a Cat-1 code for three years.
“PROF is currently able to access a C-code that reimburses >$13k per TULSA procedure (up +5 per cent for 2023), and the award of a Cat.-3 code would have made PROF’s current C-code defunct: a risk the company was unwilling to take,” Sarugaser wrote.
“While [the new announcement] does push potential commencement of reimbursement under CMS to Jan. 2025 (was Jan. 2024), we see this event as only mildly net negative for PROF, given: (i) there is now a greater certainty of TULSA winning reimbursement at a future AMA meeting (~mid-2023), and (ii) PROF’s current C-code is now protected from being nullified by a potential Cat.-3 CPT code allocation (see below), which, in turn, insulates short-med-term Rev,” he said.
The TULSA-PRO uses real-time magnetic resonance imaging with transurethral robotically-driven therapeutic ultrasound and closed-loop thermal feedback control for the precise ablation of pathologic prostate tissue while protecting the critical surrounding anatomy.
Sarugaser said he is reiterating his long-term conviction in Profound Medical, noting several near- and medium term catalysts, including: 2022 year-end data from a Focal prostate Ablation vs radical prostatectomy study; the year-end count of 35 TULSAs as its installed base; a CPT-reimbursement decision (expected mid-2023) and 2023 year end data on another comparison trial.
Profound’s share price had climbed a long way over the period of mid-2019 to early 2021, effectively going from $6 to as high as $28 at its peak. But the past year and a half have seen all of those gains now erased, as PROF is currently trading again in the $6 range.
But Sarugaser is expecting a lot more from the stock going forward, pairing his Outperform rating with a maintained 12-month target price of $15.00, which at press time represented a projected return of 130.1 per cent.
“[G]iven the continued sell-down in PROF, we see the present stock price as a value-level to build positions over the next six months in advance of the 2023 catalysts which lead to our long-term thesis,” he said.
By the numbers, Sarugaser thinks Profound will generate full 2022 revenue and EBITDA of $7 million and negative $25 million, respectively, which moves to 2023 revenue and EBITDA of $19 million and negative $24 million, respectively, and onto $117.8 million in revenue and positive $20.8 million by 2026.
On valuation, Sarugaser has Profound’s EV/Revenue going from 12.2x in 2021 to 11.2x in 202 to 4.9x in 2023 and its EV/EBITDA multiple going from negative 3.9x in 2021 to negative 3.3x in 2022 to negative 3.5x in 2023.
That's good news but gotta translate into revenue at some point. I thought it would be 3x at this point from what they are reporting.
One or two more coming soon sites listed now. Up to 22 sites listed though we are told there are others not on the website.
Looks like a good move.....
i sold my last shares at 880 this AM - good luck all - i will be skulking but not really tracking anymore. dead money for at least another 6-12 months
The slow progress here is very frustrating. But we know we have a better mousetrap so it will eventually happen. But when? In the meantime it's dead money.
The chart does look like it's bottoming anyway. Hopefully it holds 7.50 to 8
Yes it is getting to be Jerry McGuire moment for this company.
So the rhetoric was good and I found a lot of good in what he said. But I tend to put more weight on the numbers and less on the rhetoric, and the numbers were weak. Only 1.19M in the quarter for Tulsa. The other $900k was for capital sales of Sonolleve (sorry I am sure I spelled that wrong). What was really weird about the call (which I only caught the first half) was that they were very bullish on Sonolleve and ho hum on Tulsa. It really seems like they have not one, but a few strong growth opportunities.....but ultimately, I found Tulsa to be relatively underwhelming. Now they admit they got room to grow with insurance and medicare/medicade reimburses and such. Basically, I still see the potential, but I gotta see some numbers to prove it.
I miss the CC, but ...
Summary Second Quarter 2022 Results
For the quarter ended June 30, 2022, the Company recorded revenue of approximately $2.0 million, with $1.16 million from recurring revenue, which consists of the sale of TULSA-PRO® consumables, lease of medical devices, procedures and services associated with extended warranties, and $864,000 from the one-time sale of capital equipment. This represented revenue growth of 48% sequentially over the 2022 first quarter, driven primarily by the first-time sales of Sonalleve® systems in the United States and Canada, and a revenue decrease from $2.6 million in the same three-month period a year ago, due primarily to lower one-time sales of capital equipment in international markets.
Another new site added today, listed as Coming Soon.
10 day average volume is less than 10k. Not a ton of conviction if someone is loading up for good results. With that said, imagine if we do get good results and good volume. This could really pop. I hope you are right......you usually are : )
someone seems to think numbers will be good tomorrow
This is good news for sure. I don't have the data to back this up, but it seems like a long time between purchase order to fully operational site. Regardless, if they can get to 25 sites doing 3 procedures each week x roughly $5,000 per procedure, we get to roughly $5M/qtr. All rounded numbers. These aren't where I wanted to be at this stage but does at least warrant a little higher valuation than where we are at. Slow and steady with these guys....
Two more installations added today, both listed as coming soon.
https://tulsaprocedure.com/tulsa-centers/#usasites
I am in the same boat. Only have about 1/3 of original investment I have held onto. Haven't started buying again yet.
This volume though. If we get a 500,000 volume day (which really isn't a lot) could drive the price to $20 or down to $2.
I think it is fairly unkown to investors which gives us an advantage to accumulate early. I had sold half my shares on the way down but am now buying some back. I have bought back half of what I sold so far.
Does anyone know this company exists? <8k volume today. 10 day average volume <18k.
Covid has turned this into a much longer wait than anticipated. I'm hoping we start to see revenue pick up with this report and a lot by the next report. At some point this should take off.
Profound Medical to Release Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results on August 4 – Conference Call to Follow
Just lurking Laze, nothing to talk about
Wonder what's going on here. Kinda like the quiet board but I do wish they would give us something to chat about. The investor presentations I have listened to seem like rehashed info. Hopefully they are working their plan and it is going smoothly. Most importantly, I hope their new installations are on pace or ahead of schedule followed closely by increased adoption, clarity on insurance reimbursement, positive procedure/patient/doctor feedback and positive results from ongoing trials. Anyways, hope all is well with anyone still here.
Good luck!
If they do have 25 like their last presentation said, which could be the 18 + unlisted, we could see strong revenue growth. Might push $20M a year sooner than we thought (assuming we get about 3 procedures per week per unit). And that is still relatively light market penetration. I hate to assume but that is all we got. With that said, to get to a decent valuation they have a long way to go, but finally seeing progress is great! Good luck to you.
18 sites and 3 trial centers now listed on Tulsa website. New sites picking up fast now. Plus we know the company says not all the sites are listed here.
https://tulsaprocedure.com/tulsa-centers/#usasites
They project 11M in 2022 and Q 1 already in the books at 1.4M which indicated RJ thinks big Q over Q jumps this year. And $25m projection next year should get us close to break even, maybe even a little profitable. Expenses will grow as revenue grows so not making any bold predictions here. Still think has big potential.
Agree. Granted, this dropped more than I anticipated, the current upward momentum is a positive sign.
Latest Raymond James update dated May 11, 2022. He's been wrong so far but we all know the potential here is huge. I think we are finally on our way but unfortunately we are now in a bear market and biotech is the weakest sector.
Profound Medical is a solid triple, says Raymond James
Look for medical device company Profound Medical (Profound Medical Stock Quote, Chart, News NASDAQ:PROF) to hit a revenue inflection point later this year, says Raymond James analyst Rahul Sarugaser. In a Monday report, Sarugaser retained an “Outperform 2” rating on PRN with a target price of $22/share for an implied return at the time of publication of 209 per cent.
Mississauga-based Profound Medical develops magnetic resonance guided ablation procedures for treatment of prostate disease, uterine fibroids, and palliative pain treatment in Canada, Germany, the United States and Finland.
Sarugaser’s latest analysis arrives after the company released its first quarter financial results for the 2022 fiscal year.
“With COVID-19-related hospital capacity constraints finally in its rearview mirror, we see PROF building slowly but surely: increasing its installed base, increasing pricing and increasing utilization, all portending a Revenue inflection toward the end of 2022 and certainly into 2023,” Sarugaser said.
Profound’s financial quarter was headlined by revenue of $1.4 million, which was in line with the Raymond James estimate of $1.5 million, but short of the consensus estimate of $2.1 million. The figure represented a 40 per cent sequential increase, with $1 million in recurring revenue and the remainder coming from the sale of capital equipment. (All figures in US dollars.)
“PROF is currently signing contracts faster than it has capacity to install, with only MRI supply challenges (not TULSA or PROF’s deployment team) gating install rates,” Sarugaser said. “Just as importantly, as newly-installed sites gain experience, expand their application set (e.g. whole gland, focal, salvage, BPH), and ramp utilization, average utilization should increase materially, in turn driving a Rev. inflection toward the end of 2022, and certainly into 2023.”
Profound also produced a slight beat in its EBITDA loss projection, with its $7.3 million loss coming in ahead of the Raymond James projection of a $7.7 million loss and the consensus estimate of a $9.9 million loss, but incurring a slightly bigger loss than the $6.8 million reported in the previous quarter.
The company produced a net income loss of $8.2 million to beat the Raymond James forecast of a $10.4 million loss and the consensus forecast of a $11.1 million loss, while also improving upon the $10.1 million loss reported in the previous quarter.
All told, the company ended the quarter with $60.1 million in cash available compared to $67.2 million in the previous quarter, though Profound is not carrying any debt.
Profound’s fortunes were boosted by an increase in its average price per procedure to approximately $8,400, supplemented by capital sales returning earlier than expected.
Sarugaser surmises three new TULSA devices were installed in the quarter to give a fleet of 24 in the United States and 30 worldwide, with an achievable rate of four to five installs per quarter for the rest of the year.
“We believe that the steady increase in utilization we have seen over the past few quarters, even in the face of COVID headwinds, is a testament to the high quality of our installed base of TULSA-PRO® systems, and the unrivaled flexibility of our technology enabling treatment of a variety of prostate disease patients,” said Arun Menawat, CEO and Chairman of Profound Medical in the company’s May 9 press release. “Moving forward, we expect patient treatment volumes to continue to grow, albeit at a faster pace, and also to see more activity in the international market as a few one-time capital sale projects are revived. Both suggest higher recurring and total revenue growth in 2022.”
Looking ahead, Sarugaser points to a number of possible catalysts for the company, including a read-out on its ongoing FARP trial (Oslo study comparing TULSA to robotic surgery) expected sometime this summer, which could provide insight into how the company’s CAPTAIN trial is proceeding ahead of full enrolment in 2023 and a read-out in the final quarter of 2020, with seven out of 10 participant sites now actively recruiting for the randomized 2:1 level-1 trial.
Sarugaser forecasts continued improvement from a financial perspective for Profound, as he projects $11 million in revenue for 2022 for a potential year-over-year increase of 57.1 per cent. Looking ahead to 2023, Sarugaser forecasts a significant jump to $25 million, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 127.3 per cent.
From a valuation perspective, Sarugaser projects the company’s EV/Revenue multiple to drop from the reported 18.3x in 2021 to a forecasted 11.8x in 2022, then falling to a projected 5.1x in 2023.
Meanwhile, Sarugaser continues to forecast EBITDA losses, with loss projections of $29 million and $22 million in place for 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Profound Medical’s share price has plummeted to a 33.7 per cent loss since the start of 2022, having had an early peak of $11.33/share on January 5, only to close Monday at a 2022 low of $6.57/share.
I think the order is: Flirtation preceds volume, volume preceds price, price precedes pain.
volume precedes price, i dunno what precedes volume ... pain?
Looking at volume, I think insiders are the only buyers.....
Reestablished position at 7-11
i thought we might have had a better open with thtat insider buying news.
wow - that's a lotta stock to purchase open market
Profound Medical Clarifies Recent Insider Buying
TORONTO, May 18, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In response to investor inquiries regarding insider trading activity, particularly with respect to recent open market stock purchases made by certain of its insiders, Profound Medical Corp. (NASDAQ:PROF; TSX:PRN) (“Profound” or the “Company”) today provided the following clarifications.
“The Company does not currently file on domestic forms with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including Form 4: Statement of Changes in Beneficial Ownership, through which many U.S.-based investors monitor insider transactions, and as a result, some of our shareholders have raised questions about recent third-party reports that were presumably based on filings made with Canada’s System for Electronic Disclosure by Insiders, or SEDI,” said Arun Menawat, Profound’s CEO and Chairman. “After our first quarter 2022 blackout period was lifted, Brian Ellacott, our Independent Lead Director, and I purchased additional Company stock on Nasdaq at a combined cost of approximately US$763,000. Those transactions are summarized below.”
Brian Ellacott: Purchased 50,000 shares on May 12, 2022, at a price of US$7.05 per share. Mr. Ellacott now holds 68,000 Profound shares.
Arun Menawat: Purchased 30,516 shares on May 12, 2022, and 30,000 shares on May 13, 2022, at a price per share of US$6.6548 and US$6.9235, respectively. Dr. Menawat now holds 408,796 Profound shares.
This information is being provided solely to assist the Company’s shareholders in the present circumstances, and Profound does not intend to issue further press releases regarding insider transactions.
These conferences are usually non-event pump PR's for companies that ultimately have no impact. With that said, this latest conference PR seems to have some teeth to it and seems like some positives actually may come out of it. Usually, the PR's are about a conference a company will be attending, not how successful the conference was.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628808/000117184322003782/exh_991.htm
This is the kind of revenue I was expecting Q1 2021. Hopefully we see explosive growth with the new installations and more widely accepted adoption of TULSA. We need it to grow like 500%+. I know it seems crazy, but it's really not. I am not saying it will grow 500%......I am saying we need to see that kind of growth. Just my opinion.
Profound Medical First-Quarter Loss Widens on Higher Spending
BY MT Newswires
— 4:25 PM ET 05/09/2022
04:25 PM EDT, 05/09/2022 (MT Newswires) -- Profound Medical (PROF) on Monday said its first-quarter loss widened on higher spending
The medical-device company said it lost US$10.51 million, or US$0.40 per share, in the period, compared with a loss of US$8.48 million, or US$0.37, in the year-prior period.
Revenue rose 92% to US$1.36 million.
The company said its loss came on higher expenses, including a 39% rise in selling and distribution costs to US$2.2 million, while research and development costs were up 2.4% to US$3.18 million.
Profound said it is seeing rising acceptance of its TULSA-PRO prostrate-cancer treatment system among physicians.
"To-date, over 2,000 TULSA procedures have been performed by more than 100 physicians working at 30 commercial and 20 clinical research sites. We believe that the steady increase in utilization we have seen over the past few quarters, even in the face of COVID headwinds, is a testament to the high quality of our installed base of TULSA-PRO systems, and the unrivaled flexibility of our technology enabling treatment of a variety of prostate disease patients," chief executive Arun Menawat said in a release.
Profound shares closed down C$0.47 to C$8.70 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
Agree to all. Regarding PPS not reflecting growth, Profound gonna have to prove it with revenue now more so than anything else. Maybe they went to market to fast or maybe COVID played a large role, but ultimately, they are now generating revenue and the market will use that as an indicator for future growth and it hasn't shown enough yet in terms of volume or growth to justify a big jump. This is really a big year for them to prove themselves in my opinion.
Thanks for the link. I also see number of sites up 150% in one year but number of patient inquiries up 265%. I think they are finally getting in gear. Nice presentation. The stock does not reflect this growth yet. The stock price also suffers from an extremely weak biotech market. XBI was 175 in Feb 2021 and is at 69 today.
There presentation, updated in May 2022 seems to imply they already have about 25 sites open and about 15 additional purchase orders for new sites. I may be drawing the wrong conclusion but it says they have an estimated 25 sites offering TULSA in Q1 2022 and about 15 purchase orders. May is past Q1, so I would hope their "estimate" is pretty solid. Also says they either applied or are applying for insurance code in 2022. Maybe this is the year of strong growth we expected. Only need 200% growth to get is back to close to their highs.....LOL
Good luck to you!
https://profoundmedical.com/wp-content/plugins/wp-pdf-viewer/web/viewer-shortcode.php?file=https://profoundmedical.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Profound-Corporate-May-2022-.pdf&download=false&print=false&fullscreen=true&share=true&zoom=false&open=false&logo=false&pagenav=false&find=false#locale=en-US&page=&zoom=auto
On the Tulsa website they now have 14 sites plus 3 clinical trial centers PLUS they have listed an additional 4 coming soon sites and one of them is Mayo Clinic. Maybe things are finally picking up.
painful and funny at the same time
Please let me know next time you plan to take some off the table.......been looking for any kind of buy signal here that I can find.
I hate that when it happens. Wish there was more volume.
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