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the reason for the rise is PROF is obivous:
i took some off the table last week
It's nice to see a little pop. Volume is still really low, but nice to see buys at the ask instead of the bid for a change.
PROF presented yesterday at a conference (see news feed) and today it's up 1.10 as of now. Coincidence?
Today the Tulsa website says the locations of facilities is password protected? Maybe it's a website problem or it's being updated? Kind of strange.
XBI is down over 50% from the high 14 months ago so that is not helping.
Just checked and they added another new site to their website. That's 14 plus 3 clinical trial sites. Plus they say some are not up there.
https://tulsaprocedure.com/tulsa-centers/#usasites
i am still holding/lurking as well - getting painful though
Glad your still with me. I didn't listen to the last call either, but I remember the call before (or before that) when they mentioned not all installations would be on their website due to some kind of issue with hospitals not wanting their name on other sites or something like that. Which actually makes sense because I deal with that a lot in my day job. Maybe we split the difference here and go more towards the bottom line? The main issue comes down to proving to the market this is a profitable venture. Without installations, can't make money. Without insurance, cannot maximize usage of installations. Basically......LET'S freaking GO! I feel like we are stuck in the mud. I wish you much luck and success.
They claim the machines they have installed are doing more procedures than they estimated so I'm not so sure the insurance coverage is the issue. To me the company has failed to get enough installations done. They blame covid and certainly that had an impact. Whatever the reason, the stock will continue to languish imo until they start getting lots of machines installed and in operation. They have missed virtually every estimate made on installations. I have to listen to the last conf call in full but I think one analyst wrote afterward they now predict 40 by the end of this year. That would be great but so far these installations are not showing up on their website.
I am still convinced they have the best solution though so while I sold half a while back I plan to hold the rest as of now and hope for better execution by the company.
Well, not sure what to make of this anymore. I really misjudged how far it would drop. I was thinking of buying more around 15.....sure glad I didn't pull the trigger. Still holding a small core. I still believe once insurance reimbursement is finalized this can really take off, but I have yet to really understand where they are at or what kind of definitve date we are looking at for this to occur. And I am losing confidence in my ability to understand this company.....LOL. Dissapointed here but holding on.
Douglas Loe of Leede Jones Gable is feeling positive regarding the trajectory of Profound Medical (Profound Medical Stock Quote, Chart, News NASDAQ:PRN), maintaining a “Buy” rating and target price of $26.25/share for a projected one-year return of 180 per cent in an update to clients on March 4.
Mississauga-based Profound Medical develops magnetic resonance guided ablation procedures for treatment of prostate disease, uterine fibroids and palliative pain treatment in Canada, Germany, the United States and Finland, with its chief offering being the prostate cancer-targeted ultrasound ablation technology TULSA-PRO.
Loe’s latest analysis comes after Profound reported its fourth quarter financial results, along with its 2021 year-end totals.
“Commentary was centered on the firm’s FDA/EMA-approved MR-guided prostate-focused ultrasound ablation platform TULSA-PRO and ongoing marketing/clinical/reimbursement activities to drive adoption,” Loe said. “Momentum is building in early F2022 after predictably sluggish operations in F2021.”
Profound recorded $1 million in revenue, a 65.6 per cent year-over-year drop, with the full amount coming from recurring revenue and nothing from capital equipment sales. However, Loe noted that the company maintained its expectations of 40 new TULSA-PRO installations in 2022, combatting what was a slow end to the fiscal year. (All figures in US dollars.)
The company also posted total operating expenses of approximately $10.2 million, representing a 69 per cent year-over-year increase, a number that Loe expects to go up with the company starting to enroll 201 patients in its CAPTAIN trial.
According to Loe, the company ended the quarter with $67.2 million in cash and equivalents available, which should be enough to support its ongoing clinical and commercial efforts pertaining to TULSA-PRO.
“Despite facing COVID-19 headwinds that impacted the pace of new U.S. TULSA-PRO installations in the first three quarters of 2021, the opportunity that we see for the technology remains intact,” said Arun Menawat, Profound’s CEO and Chairman in the company’s March 3 press release. “Indeed, with many of the leading hospitals in the U.S. being early adaptors of the technology, and clinicians already treating an unrivaled variety of prostate disease patients, we are well ahead of where competing treatment technologies were in their first two years post-launch. TULSA-PRO installations in the United States increased significantly in Q4-2021, and that trend has continued so far in the current quarter. We believe this bodes well for potential higher revenue growth in 2022.”
Despite the company finishing 2021 at a six per cent loss from a revenue perspective, Loe expects tailwinds from TULSA-PRO’s continued progression to help the company’s bottom line sooner rather than later, as he forecasts a 441 per cent jump to $37.2 million in revenue for 2022, with approximately 72.2 per cent of the revenue mix coming from TULSA-PRO capital equipment and accessories. Looking ahead to 2023, Loe forecasts an 85 per cent year-over-year increase to $68.7 million, with the TULSA-PRO categories accounting for 70.9 per cent of the projected revenue mix.
Loe then forecasts the company’s total revenue to jump into nine figures at $108.7 million in 2024 for a 58 per cent year-over-year increase (72.7 per cent coming from the TULSA-PRO categories), beginning a steep revenue curve that culminates in a 2028 projection of $297.9 million in revenue, with TULSA-PRO and its accessories accounting for 81.9 per cent of the revenue mix.
Meanwhile, 2022 sees Loe forecasting positive EBITDA for Profound for the first time, with the $3.04 million projection introducing an eight per cent margin, which he forecasts to jump to 30 per cent ($20.8 million in EBITDA) in 2023. From there, Loe forecasts the margin to continue rising, potentially reaching as high as 57 per cent ($170.3 million in EBITDA) by 2028.
Finally, from 2022 on, Loe forecasts stable gross margins of 45 per cent for capital equipment and 73 per cent for its accessories.
From a valuation perspective, Loe introduces an EV/EBITDA multiple in 2022 at 14.5x, along with a P/E multiple of greater than 30x.
Overall, Loe notes his investment thesis regarding Profound is relatively unchanged from before.
“Even though topline performance reflected no capital equipment sales in FQ421 owing to pandemic challenges, we believe that retrospective focus on trailing sales data as a baseline for future TULSA-PRO/Sonalleve adoption is to miss the fact that signals of recovering growth trajectory are already apparent, and should be reflected in financial data as early as FQ122,” Loe said.
Profound Medical’s stock price has had a pronounced drop over the last 12 months, reporting a 62.8 per cent loss in that time. Since the release of Loe’s analysis, the stock has dropped a further 12.3 per cent, hitting C$10/share on Tuesday, a long way from the 52-week high of $28.77/share the company saw a year ago.
The downgrade the other day by Raymond James seemed like a turning point. Plus the stock acts like everyone pessimistic on today's earnings report so any positive news might turn this. Overall though the growth here very disappointing so far. I still believe in the product though so at some point it should get wider adoption.
Not sure it will move the needle, but this is good news and could assist in a wider adoption of TULSA PRO.
https://newsfilter.io/a/04c03c5b76888035d869bd1133ccf99f
New installation...finally.
Happy New Year Lazer. Let's hope it's a better year for PROF.
They finally have another site listed on their website but seemed to have missed the promised 20 sites by year end. The new site is University of Texas Medical Branch. They have 12 listed plus three trial sites some of which are duplicates.
If you believe what mgt says in their conf calls they already have 25 sites contracted as of the last call so I don't think this is slow due to wanting more evidence but I could be wrong. Hospitals have been overwhelmed with patients world wide even before this current covid spike. I think the company should turn any focus away from hospitals right now because they are overburdened and under staffed and probably don't have the time to work with Profound installation. The company said in the last call this was an issue. I hope they have changed their strategy. I have emailed them my opinion on this but of course get no reply.
Hey Hayfarmer - Hope your new year is off to a great start. I agree with you on the new guy. I am starting to think this could be an even longer hold though. Until insurance is totally straightened out, probably won't grow as quickly as we would like. Also, and this is purely speculative on my part, but I fear some medical facilities may want to see more proof of concept. All initial studies are great, even to the extent they have approval to do the procedure, but Are some hospitals/doctors waiting for 5yr / 10 yr follow up data? Maybe I am just being negative. Still holding core and if this dips much more I will probably even add. Just trying to understand how we are where we are and where we are going. Good luck to you!
This looks like a good addition imo. PROF is failing to get this installed in enough sites. This guy has a great resume for what we need. It sounds like he would have a lot of contacts in the industry for prostate cancer. Also, makes me wonder if BSCI would be interested to buy PROF some day.
Hopefully we get an analyst to upgrade based on this.
https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/01/05/2361581/33471/en/Kenneth-Knudson-Joins-Profound-Medical-as-Chief-Commercial-Officer.html
Still here. Just holding core. Not paying to much attention day to day on this one anymore......not great investing advice... lol. I still believe in this long term, but yeesh......
Anyone still in this? No posts in over a month. No new sites on their website either. They promised 4 more by year end but also say some of them are not on the website so who knows.
The performance here has been very disappointing. They have the best mousetrap for sure so why are they not growing faster? No new site listed on their website for quite a while now. They promised 2.5 per month thru the end of year. Mgt should not promise something if they are not sure they can deliver. I'm still holding for the product but starting to be very disappointed in the execution by management.
I don't think you missed anything cause they never give us anything to miss. I am not even sure what catalysts we are waiting on anymore. Getting insurance codes? More installs? Higher revenues? These guys are more quiet than my teenage boys were at sneaking in late at night. I still have my core, but not paying a ton of attention because their isn't anything to pay attention to.....
hey Hay, did i miss something today? any reason we are down 10%
it's almost like their in stealth mode - no pr on new sites, no prs on anyting - kindof a WTF on the investor comms
I expected this to have a lift from the recent urologist conf. Such a a disappointing hold.
will this ever bounce out of 13s and stay out of 13s??????
more buying around 2 PM, didnt sustain, but did take it up a little
Two days in a row now with significant late day buying. Someone is accumulating this.
i feel like i shold play this on loop:
can't
quite
get
traction
From the Cantech letter 9/10/21:
Here is a link to the full post
https://www.cantechletter.com/2021/09/these-three-medical-device-stocks-are-all-buys/
Next is Profound Medical (Profound Medical Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:PRN), which is also in the commercialization stage in the United States for its non-invasive, image-guided therapeutic technology, the TULSA-PRO, which uses real-time magnetic resonance imaging, robotically-driven ultrasound and closed-loop thermal feedback control. The TULSA-PRO, which was cleared by the FDA in 2019, is used for the ablation of pathologic prostate tissue and has Profound currently ramping up its installations of units across the country.
Last month on August 25, Raymond James analyst Rahul Sarugaser released a report where he compared the TULSA-PRO specs to those of therapeutic ultrasound company EDAP TMS’ Focal One high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) device for the treatment of prostate cancer. Sarugaser said head-to-head, the TULSA-PRO’s clinical data show “objectively superior safety” versus the Focal One. Further, Sarugaser said the TULSA-PRO shows much broader utility as it can be used not just in focal ablation (as is the case for Focal One) but for partial and whole gland ablation, thereby equating to a larger total addressable market — a TAM which Sarugaser puts at over one million patients.
“Whether for whole gland or focal ablation, we find PROF TULSA to have objectively superior safety to EDAP HIFU. We also find, using equal market assumptions, PROF TULSA captures 62 per cent higher revenue than EDAP HIFU. Further, considering its much broader utility, PROF TULSA’s TAM is, in fact, >10x larger than that of EDAP HIFU,” Sarugaser wrote.
With his report, Sarugaser reiterated his “Strong Buy 1” rating for PRN, a stock which, like Perimeter, had both a run-up earlier this year and a pullback. Currently, the stock is down 30 per cent for the year-to-date.
I noticed there seemed to be more analysts asking questions on the last conf call so maybe some one of them will initiate coverage with buy. Otherwise this company does not do a good job of promoting itself imo.
Welcome back! Hope you had a great vacation! I just can't get over how under the radar this continues to be both in the retail and hedge fund worlds. I agree it kinda looks and feels like a bottom is forming, but I wouldn't mind a little spark of some kind to help move it up. Good luck!
Great comparison to EDAP. There is a Seeking Alpha article which favors EDAP so this was good to see.
I've been on vacation most of August but am back now. I see a bottom forming on the chart. I think we have seen the lows. Waiting now to see more sites added.
i guess that was my ever-snarky way of saying: "i don't get it".
Thanks for the positive feedback janeyH.......
nice article, stock goes down
nah - gotta be some other stock - PROF? couldnt be
Did anyone else see the 75K buy at $14.64 today?
I was just having fun. I get it, and Profound Medical has Profoundly confused me. I don't know what is going on. Hardly any volume and hardly any news. Problem now is that we need 100% gain to make up for the 50% depreciation in price. Still have faith it's a long term win, but can't help but think I could be making some change in other opportunities. If they could just give me something........for now, I continue to hold. Good luck Janey!
there's just nada to talk about
i did pick up a handful of 13.75 today, but not much else going on
I know right, no posts on this board in forever, what is going on? Everyone on vacation?
New site listed...Halo Diagnostic in Houston.
Great situation long term!! Short term we will bleed until they announce positive material news. Hopefully we receive new coverage or someone raises their outlook for the stock.
this price action blows
I thought it was odd that on the last call they said all new systems would be pay per use and then have so much capital equipment sales.
I reached out to IR and they said, yes, US sales of Tulsa all pay per use... Sonnaleve and Europe Tulsa sales make up the capital revenue.
Hey gang...glad to see some relief here today!
From a technical point of view it's my opinion we need to see a close above 18 to say we are starting on a true new uptrend. The daily 250 EMA is sitting just below 18 right now right and price this morning went right up to it and got rejected. Hopefully soon we get above 18. But today is a good start!!
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