ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (USD)

[poor_user]

Ok, the market has had a little rise here. Let's see if it can hold it.

[poor_user]

Remember, be patient with a market like this. Do not be buying anything on the long side. This will bottom eventually, but it will take time.

Kinda sucks. I have been sitting in 100 percent cash in my parents accounts for almost a year now. This market has really sucked. How can anyone out there trust it is beyond me.

Funny how as soon as the FED pulled back their stimulus that the market became shaky and then it looked like it was going to rise good and hold, but no...

The economy is not as bad as the market is saying right now. But maybe it knows something we don't. Yeah, things are bad, but not this bad. Come on!!!

Anyway, the smart money is being patient. Then it may be time to go long financials. We will see. :)

And it is funny how tech was looking so good and now...not!!!

[poor_user]

Wow, psychology has really dipped. Gotta love panics. Not, but that is what is needed to put an end to this long correction/market pause/what ever you want to call it.

I say we see a bottom formed soon...
Let's wait and see...

[poor_user]

Any Day Trader's out there.

The inflection point seems to be between say 36 and 38 for USD. You may want to trade this. Selling in the lower 40's.

We had a good down day today. Let's see if she jumps from around here. :)

[Stock]

Your timing was superb.

[poor_user]

Oh, and I loved how no one thought this was going up!!!

[poor_user]

Looks like the NASDAQ will hit 52-Week highs soon. This run is going great and tech is certainly leading. It is amazing when you get on the train as it is leaving the station. :)

[poor_user]

Thanks.

I like the feel of this market right now. TECH seems to be leading or at least wanting to. I like it. Have to see if it continues.

[Stock]

well done

[poor_user]

Alright, I am placing a new bet. Since it seems like the market is only in a correction and not all out panic I will cross my fingers that the bottom is near here. Could still be a few months away though.

Anyway, I went long yesterday at $36.25.

[Stock]

USD volume continues to decline, people have lost interest in the ETF - chart cup with handle?

[poor_user]

Got stopped out of my short position again. Had to go long USD. So far it is making me money. So my long positions this year have outweighed my short loses. Who would have guessed with all the world economic problems? I now have since moved up the stop so will make money on the trade even if it triggers.

So lets watch USD then. It closed around $40.50 on Dec 3rd.

And just so you know I don't follow any resource like Stock Trader's Almanac, etc. I do better by ignoring what everyone/article/report/etc says and watch the market. I find taking everyone's advice only hurts me. Because for any one person who would sell I can find one who would buy. You can always find the opposite opinion. Ask any lawyer this question and see want they say. "Can you always argue for the opposite side?" They will say yes. That is what goes on during every trade. So it makes logical sense to not pay for and read any material being put out like that. Especially if it talks about chart patterns or the market history, etc. I want to hear about the future and last I checked...no one has a crystal ball. So I just use the market. It always knows first.

But so you know I spent years looking/reading that crap. Never again.

[Stock]

The Stock Trader's Almanac says today is the day to sell USD, just FWIW

The best seasonality period for semis ends today,,,, it's the shortest of all sectors, just 6 weeks.

[poor_user]

Ok, I went short again. SSG @ 12.80. Fingers are crossed it works this time. :) It should. The market is finally falling apart.

Am happen though. Got a little ride out of TMV. After the 30-Year Treasury Auction Disaster I had to get in. Now I sold those shares.

Now let's watch the market action to the downside.

[poor_user]

Well, got stopped out of SSG awhile back and have just been igoring the market since. The market rose so much I expected a pull back never got it so I sold everything. It is show me time now. I want to see the numbers in the economy, etc to back this big rally.

Maybe now that the QE2 announcement and the election is over we might see a pull back, but who knows at this point.

Some say the market is always right and knows before anyone else what the future holds. I say nothing is right 100 percent of the time. So I am waiting to see if this rally has legs. Only the numbers will show me that. Right now it is still a mixed bag.

[poor_user]

Ok, I shorted today using SSG. $16 was my cost.

We will see how it plays out. I believe the last runup in the markets was based on this coming quarter's news. Most think the outlooks given will be good. I don't think so.

But we shall see. You never know with the markets but during this last runup I did not see any of the news stories change.

So where is all the good news???

[poor_user]

Wow, what a run SEMIs have had these last couple of weeks.

Here is my problem with the market overall though. The volume has been drying up since last year. I don't like it. Plus, this just may be end of quarter buying. So don't get to excited here. :)

[poor_user]

Ok, SEMIs have been and are acting very weak. Is this a sign of a weaker economy to come? Most likely yes since SEMIs lead the market.

You know now that government stimulus has been removed we have and will see the true environment. Now inventories seem to be getting built back up too. How much longer until inventories are packed again? Will the consumer step up and spend money this holiday season, etc? Who knows. Because the real question is where is the money going to come from? I have read that retirement funds are being used to pay for things now and credit is being cut back on. How much longer can that go on? It is fine when the stock market is rising, but if everyone is doing this then the market has to fall.

So, what does one do? I say pull the trigger and buy at some point, but this sideways action could go on for years. No one knows!!! But in truth things may not be as bad as everyone is saying. It sucks you can never trust anyone!!!

I actually wish we would get another market panic. These always gets the market correction over soon and pegs the indicators on extreme pessimism. We need this one last time!!!

[poor_user]

Awesome. I have not seen triple ~90 percent upside volume days for the markets in like ever. Or I can not remember when it happen last.

I am willing to bet no one out there reading this bought USD when it traded in the 24's.

And isn't it funny how the last few months of job reports were revised upwards. Things are just not as bad as everyone is saying. Don't get me wrong things are not great by any means, but the doom and gloom is amazing and uncalled for at this level. It is just to extreme. So from it we get three fantastic back-to-back days.

I made some money shorting earlier this year, but now is transition time. So instead of playing the "Where is the bottom game" I suggest going long. No one can perdict the exact turning point out of this but there is no need to play that game. The market is giving many buying oportunities here. And who knows you may get more oportunities in the not to distant future, but you don't know that!!!

[poor_user]

Anyone out there pick this up when it was trading in the 25's? If so, that was an awesome buy.

[poor_user]

Again, it was best to not listen to all the BS. Intel just had the best quarter ever.

Now the shorters, etc are talking about this just being an inventory rebuild or whatever. Well, they are idiots. This was the best quarter ever and intel has been around for decades, thru many recessions, etc. Meaning many inventory rebuilds. So that is just another excuse. Again, this was the best quarter ever. How do you get that in a bad economy?

As will be seen during this earnings season, the economy is not as bad as everyone would have you believe.

SO WAKE UP!!! And stop using excuses!!!

[poor_user]

After a slight pullback, there was a end-of-day rally which was good.

The low of the year may have been just seen.

[poor_user]

WOW, WHAT A HUGE UP DAY!!!

Maybe this is the start of something much bigger? As always we shall see.

[poor_user]

Well, USD sits a approximately a $1 below where I bought it. I am amazed at how much fear is at this level.

Still holding on...

[poor_user]

$27.15 should hold at least tomorrow anyway.

It is rare to see a 96 percent volume down day. And then to get back-to-back huge down days is extremely rare. If so though, you can be almost certain that most everyone is giving up. To which I say...GOOD!!!

[poor_user]

Oh, no. Here comes the Greece strikes again. Let's see how bad the market reacts to round 2 of this. I am betting not as bad.

[poor_user]

The market seems like it is in a trading range. I figure it will stay this way until it sees better news. So far we have gotten a few bad reports. From jobs to lower GDP figures, etc, etc. All this bad news the market knew ahead of time and priced it all in. We just went thru a mini panic imo so it might be awhile before we get better news.

We all must wait now for Mr Market. What does the future hold? Oh, I'm so excited. I can't wait to see. :)

[poor_user]

And if you ever get in a situation and you have to ask someone else's opinion on making a trade. You will find that 9 times out of 10 you will be on the losing side of the trade.

[poor_user]

I am amazed at how many people right now list a ton of bads news and say the markets will be down from here because of it.

It seems like the media is manipulating everyone who reads and listens to them.

Don't let them tell you how to think!
This will affect your trading most likely making you come out on the losing side.

This is big in learning to keep your emotions in check.

[poor_user]

Contrary indicators everywhere it seems:
(I pulled this info from various articles recently)(Let's see if these Gods of market timing will continue to have their day in the sun. :)

George Soros just said last week: "It is inevitable that Europe will be back in recession by next year."

Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2008, who provided a timely warning in advance of the 2008-2009 recession, warned of a next recession in a New York Times column this week. Krugman wrote, “Suddenly creating jobs is out, condemning deficits is in. Many economists, myself included, regard this turn to austerity as a huge mistake. It raises memories of 1937, when FDR’s premature attempt to balance the budget plunged the recovering economy back into severe recession. . . . . Economic policy around the world has taken a major wrong turn and the odds of a prolonged economic slump are rising by the day.”

Bernanke, while still forecasting the U.S. economy will continue to grow “at a moderate pace”, said for the first time last week that he “does not rule out the possibility of a double-dip recession.”

Warren Buffett says a “terrible problem” lies just ahead for municipal bonds, that with plunged real estate values and high unemployment, too many cities and towns are just not able to collect enough in taxes and fees to handle expenditures and also make payments on their bonds.

Meredith Whitney, a prominent bank analyst at Oppenheimer in 2007, became famous with her accurate bearish call on Citigroup in October, 2007 said in a recent interview, “I have the strongest conviction that there’s going to be a double-dip in housing.”

I love it. A bear makes the cover of Businessweek.

[poor_user]

Ok, I got dollar costed averaged at $27.15 on Tuesday. I am now fully long.

But I believe the market will only rally for a few months before rolling over again to maybe make an ultimate low. There are to many things hanging over it's head right now. Let's get that cleared up somewhat and then we can really get this bull market rocking.

Notice I say somewhat because the problems that exist are ones that need one heck of a house cleaning. Debt and the demographics will be the sledge hammer that creates a stock depression not seen before. But that is years out. So for now we can breath easy.

[poor_user]

Wow, what a nice set of down days we have had recently. Especially Friday's action on the downside. Looked to me like capitulation with follow thru on Monday.

I was amazed at how much down volume there was on Friday. I am amazed at how much negativity is out there right now too. So I went fully long today.

The upcoming earnings season should be great. But the question remains will something overshadow the reports. We shall see. Fingers are crossed. :)

[Stock]

$DJUSSC wide chart

[poor_user]

And what is real nice is semis always seem to lead the market on the way up and on the way down.

[poor_user]

So hop on board. The train may be slow and really bumpy going for now, but the ride will smooth out. We can't have all bad all the time. :)

[poor_user]

There are lot of bad things going on world-wide, which is great. Because out of extreme pessimism is born great rallies.

[poor_user]

I say this continues awhile longer.

[poor_user]

Wow, what a day.