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Running Out of Spare Capacity
11/ 19/ 2021
https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/running-out-of-spare-capacity-global-oil-markets?fs=e&s=cl
Petrodollar Collapse: Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan For Chinese Oil Sales
A Geology Insider Explains Why The Global Energy Crisis Is Going To Get Much, Much Worse
January 30, 2022 by Michael Snyder
https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a-geology-insider-explains-why-the-global-energy-crisis-is-going-to-get-much-much-worse/?fbclid=IwAR1IAoJ_nc7unR7oE98y0g5aFA-pLRV-FR04mn6NPAjdJ2Lfuo6DCQr3oqU
Many are learning the prepper mentality the hard way.No TP and empty food shelves was a great learning experience.Many will develop preparedness thinking and practices.I am optimistic while staying realistic.New thinking is here and that includes "food insurance" for families.Many are waking up to the limitations of institutions and the vulnerabilities of our instant gratification life styles. Localization is catching on. The pandemic shook everyone to the core. Some are stressed out and acting out while others are reassessing and changing their lives. The door is wide open for healthy change and many are doing just that.This is the start of a new and much better age.Happy Holidays My Friend!
I agree with you, BUT we need to be growing food locally, starting in our backyards, playgrounds, golf courses, etc. Only 4% of people in the U.S. produce food. Third-world nations are better off surviving starvation because they grow food, save seeds, and practice all survival skills. Just saying. Good luck.
sumisu
We are adapting and changing as always. Things are looking good to me. Got EV, got AI and got new thinking replacing old stagnating thinking. A sustainable and more healthy world is being created as we speak. The key is to avoid systemic seizure while we transition. So far so good even with supply tightness in many areas. We will adjust and transform IMO. No global depression,no WW III and no die off. Just a lot of uncertainty and anxiety as things get bumpy during this birth of a better way of doing everything.Take Care! https://www.tesla.com/semi
TRUCKING INSIDER: "Everything In the Country Is Going To Shut Down" If This Happens
Premiered Sep 6, 2021
An energy crisis is gripping the world, with potentially grave consequences
Will Englund 15 hrs ago
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/an-energy-crisis-is-gripping-the-world-with-potentially-grave-consequences/ar-AAPjcIE?fbclid=IwAR2xn6etLK8QQwUiBR2GgznIRyzyBKbey1ZOdxyijCOiSR7BXSVeiSCrWrQ
US Heating Oil Supplies Lowest In Decades Ahead Of Winter
by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Oct 09, 2021 - 11:45 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-heating-oil-supplies-lowest-decades-ahead-winter?fbclid=IwAR0ZAPbJv_o7JwIbHrqP0fAMbgLiRE_cJGzx5pHu3leii2ZohpDumN1BKmk
How will 500,000 products made with fossils as feedstock & process energy be created post fossil fuels?
Posted on September 29, 2021 by energyskeptic
https://energyskeptic.com/2021/how-will-500-million-products-made-from-oil-be-made-after-its-gone/?fbclid=IwAR3_Aoax8anDRsQ7uQ-_1a3RBuzS18xeoWXoK9v2RCOAeq_byMvj0G8AUhY
IEA: The Global Oil Glut Is Gone
By Tsvetana Paraskova - May 12, 2021, 12:00 PM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/IEA-The-Global-Oil-Glut-Is-Gone.html?fbclid=IwAR2iedQKzRRF2VJxMAPANS_4oRuKIXtchN6u4GHGeXhmHOPVzzHCxROZrgg
Toyota warns,yet again,that the infrastructure needed for mass adoption of battery electric vehicles,
remains years away-
https://pjmedia.com/culture/bryan-preston/2021/03/19/toyota-warns-again-about-electrifying-all-autos-is-anyone-listening-n1433674#16162445917512&{"sender":"offer-0-EObzs","displayMode":"inline","recipient":"opener","event":"resize","params":{"height":295,"iframeId":"offer-0-EObzs";;}}
futr
Gasoline Industry Is About to Become Totally Worthless Morgan Stanley Warns
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article68436.html
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What we have here is peak oil production,peak global warming hysteria and a birth of a new age of peace and prosperity.The times they are a changin!
"Some parts of Texas were colder than Alaska. Before dawn yesterday morning, it was 5°F in Dallas...and 18° in Anchorage. About 800 daily records for cold temperatures were set in the last week, according to Bloomberg."
"Picture an overheated car (and what we drive), an overcooked dinner (and what we eat), and someone sick with a fever (and how we act). Now imagine that on a planetary scale." https://www.jpost.com/jerusalem-report/climate-change-an-existential-threat-to-humanity-and-how-we-can-survive-643267
In this period of mass hysteria we are demonizing CO2.They want remove CO2 from the atmosphere.This is amazing!As the climate cools more carbon in the atmosphere could help reduce the cooling.
Don't panic! We will survive and we will thrive.Gloom n Doom thinking is a disease.Positive change is breaking out in 2021 and the next ten years will be fun as hope increases and healthy changes bring healing and harmony to all.Reforms in schools,courts and prisons will open up a wonderful era of peace,prosperity and joy.
From a letter I wrote and am sharing with some national leaders:
Dear.....,
I am full of hope that a better America is about to emerge
from a terrible period of pain and destruction.I am determined
to do what is required to see the promise of our Constitution become reality
and clearly the time for major change has arrived.While sheltering in place
I have been searching for the best solutions we can now put to work.The key
ingredients for our goals are inside us and they are crying out to be fully
expressed in our institutions.
I believe we must treat others as we would like to be treated in
our schools("Teach Like Finland" by Timothy Walker),
in our courts("Restorative Justice", Fania Davis) and
in our prisons("Incarceration" by Christine Montross).
IMO the 3 authors above must be involved in the transformation of our nation.
A note I wrote that I am sharing with friends and family:
Be Kind To Your Mind:
Lifting Our Thoughts
One beautiful way of lifting our thoughts to a higher level and thus raising our energy is to tap into a stored memory of joy, love or self-confidence. It takes only a few moments to make this happen.
Choose a time when you felt full of joy, love or self-confidence. You can choose another high-energy feeling if you wish. Close your eyes for a few minutes and picture how you felt at that time. Remember it with all your senses. As you breathe in and out, feel that experience all through your body.
The HeartMath Institute suggests that you place your hand over your heart during this exercise. After a few minutes, you can open your eyes. Practice this a few times to establish this memory within you.
When you feel yourself filling with emotions like fear or anger, place your hand over your heart and watch how the negative feelings are replaced by feelings of joy and love. Remember that everything begins with a thought. A thought of fear leads to a feeling of fear. A thought of resentment leads to feelings of anger. When you become willing to get out of your head and come from your heart, your feelings change to loving feelings.
John Grassi, a teacher I had in graduate school, told me a wonderful story to illustrate this. At recess one day, two young students were getting ready to have a fight. A girl caught the attention of one of the boys and put her hand over her heart to remind him to come from his heart. In turn, that boy put his hand over his heart and stopped acting out his anger. The second boy saw this gesture, put his hand over his heart-and the fight was over.
It is such a simple exercise but it works every time we have the willingness to change.
Neale Donald Walsh writes, "The Highest Thought is the thought which contains joy. The Clearest Words are those that contain truth. The Grandest Feeling is that which you call love. Joy, truth and love. These three are interchangeable, and one always leads to the other. It matters not in which order they are placed."
Here is a guided imagery that can help connect you with a higher frequency of energy for faster healing:
Imagine that you have a cord connected from the top of your head reaching up to all the energies of the universe. You can feel it vibrating. See a glow of light all around you, expanding wider and wider until all you see is light. Feel it vibrating as you sit in the center of all this energy. Feel your entire body alive and connected to this higher frequency. Feel yourself surrounded by love. In this powerful place, say to yourself, All the energies of the universe are healing my body today. See this manifesting. Know this is a reality.
Now give thanks for the manifestation of this affirmation.
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Making time every day for listening to guided meditations can work wonders.You can "loop" these videos by right clicking on the image and selecting "loop" so they repeat over and over causing you to drift off into a dream state allowing the affirmations to access your subconscious mind to reprogram your brain with upgraded "software":
I Am Worthy | Affirmations for Self Esteem and Self-Love
Shell, in a Turning Point, Says Its Oil Production Has Peaked
Europe’s largest oil and gas producer said oil production would gradually decline 1 or 2 percent annually, underscoring the company’s desire to shift to greener energy.
As Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, Shell has faced skepticism about how willing or able it will be to shift from oil production.Credit...David Zalubowski/Associated Press
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/business/shell-oil-production.html?smid=fb-share&fbclid=IwAR3G79DlPOwEDiVgls-I2f-yFbIpeOqG_9n5XpCbse6rPv1GhXphK2J1JQM
Setting the Stage for an Oil Crisis
01/ 27/ 2021
http://blog.gorozen.com/blog/setting-the-stage-for-an-oil-crisis?fbclid=IwAR1w9PPVWvA4wMbgmRiHSJE_KoEYktvPoEyCrO2WNk0lyQnf_fZ3EDLXgOE
We believe we are on the cusp of a global energy crisis. Like most crises, the fundamental causes for this crisis have been brewing for several years but have lacked a catalyst to bring them to the attention of the public or to the average investor. The looming energy crisis is rooted in the underlying depletion of the US shales along with the chronic disappointments in non-OPEC supply in the rest of the world. The catalyst is the coronavirus.
The initial phase of the crisis that took prices negative is behind us and the next phase which, should take prices much higher, is in its infancy. Global energy markets in general, and oil markets in particular, are slipping into a structural deficit as we speak. We believe energy will be the most important investment theme of the next several years and the biggest unintended consequence of the coronavirus.
Investors’ focus has shifted to how quickly supply can be brought back to meet recovering demand. While most investors believe the lost production will be easily brought back online, our models tell us something vastly different. While OPEC+ production will likely rebound, non-OPEC+ supply will be extremely challenged. Instead of recovering, our models tell us that non-OPEC+ production is about to decline dramatically from today’s already low levels.
Thus far, the slowdown in non-OPEC+ production has come entirely from proactively shutting in existing production. These wells were mostly old and only marginally economic before prices collapsed in 2020. Going forward, production will be impacted by a different and longer-lasting force. Low prices led producers to curtail nearly all new drilling activity. As recently as March 13th, 2020, there were 680 rigs drilling for oil in the United States. In less than four months, the US oil directed rig count fell by 75% to 180 – the lowest level on record.
Shale wells enjoy strong initial production rates but suffer from sharp subsequent declines. Basin production falls quickly unless new wells are constantly drilled and completed to offset the base declines. Considering US shale production was already falling sequentially back in November of 2019 when the rig count was above 700. Today’s 373 rigs all but guarantee production will collapse going forward.
Low prices have led to a sharp drilling slowdown in the rest of the world as well. Between February and June of 2020, the non-US rig count fell by 40% to 800 – also the lowest on record. We have often written about the depletion problem facing the non-OPEC+ world outside of the US shales. Over the last decade, this group has seen production decline slowly and steadily as a dearth of new large projects has not been enough to offset legacy field depletion. By laying down half their rigs, this group ensured that future production would be materially impacted.
Analysts continue to focus their attention on what has already happened (the shutting-in of existing production) instead of looking at what is yet to come. The unprecedented drilling slowdown is only now starting to impact production. Going forward, supply will plummet leaving the market in an extreme deficit starting now.
This blog was an excerpt from our broader white paper Top Reasons to Consider Oil-Related Equities. If you are interested in reading more about this topic, please download the white paper below.
http://info.gorozen.com/top-reasons-to-consider-oil-related-equities?hsCtaTracking=47e6c6b6-cc98-4b4f-9d15-7a5d50ca23d5%7C5cf430a6-e13b-40f4-8869-9ce96f4b8a19
The Energy Cliff - The End of Oil | Steve St Angelo + Nicholas Trinkett
A dive into the world of oil production and demand with two interesting perspectives. Both provide lots of detailed data to help predict the future of oil and energy in this fast changing sector.
Peak Oil in South & Central America
By Matt Mushalik, originally published by Crude Oil Peak
January 5, 2021
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-01-05/peak-oil-in-south-central-america/
UK North Sea Summary Part I: Licensing, Drilling, Discoveries and Development
12/25/2020
George Kaplan Natural Gas Production, North Sea, Oil Production, Reserves and Resources
http://peakoilbarrel.com/uk-north-sea-summary-part-i-licensing-drilling-discoveries-and-development/?fbclid=IwAR0pUHnjGDv9z6vDaBfvB-CtStNl2oJhny4hl2SNRGWEfV9SjLkp7EPC7CA
Chef José Andrés urges Biden to think of food as 'national security issue' as millions go hungry
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chef-jose-andres-urges-biden-to-think-of-food-as-national-security-issue-as-millions-go-hungry-114232107.html
“We need to have somebody near the president, near the power centers that thinks of food as a national security issue. The same way that September 11 happened, the same way that this pandemic happened one day we may be in a moment where all that food that looks plentiful right now is not there anymore,” Andrés said. “Let's make sure we give the importance to food it deserves. The most important energy on planet Earth is not oil. Oil only moves my car. The most important energy on this planet is food, more food moves all of us.”
The money printing is working and the dollar is in good shape so we are not going to plunge into a depression.Yes there is pain but not enough damage being done to bring the system down.Food issues will improve as checks are being issued and the Biden/Harris team will likely address food deserts and expand food stamps.There may even be a Secretary of Food. Secretary of Food article by José Andrés: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/opinion/covid-pandemic-food-crisis.html?auth=login-google1tap&login=google1tap I am a chef who believes in feeding the many, not just the few. So when quarantines were first introduced around the United States earlier this year, my team at World Central Kitchen, a network of chefs and community organizers stationed around the globe, looked for places where we could feed the masses affected by the combined crises of the pandemic and the recession that it has caused.
You didn’t need to be a genius to find them. The communities suffering most from the effects of Covid-19 are those suffering most from the effects of poverty and economic injustice — places like the Navajo Nation in the American West, which is larger in area than 10 of our states but often remains forgotten when we tell the American story.
For a fraction of the cost of an industry bailout, we can upgrade public school kitchens across the United States and pay the real cost of a free and nutritious school lunch. In times of disaster, our schools can become community kitchens; there are still food deserts in this country, but there are few school deserts. We can dramatically improve the health of our most vulnerable families by improving the food supplies in our corner stores and in our classrooms.
Rather than relying on private donors to fund charities and nonprofits, we can spend federal funds to get our cafes and restaurants back on their feet while the Federal Emergency Management Agency pays for real food programs. We can target our subsidies toward smaller farms and farmers selling healthier foods to their local markets. More than a century after Upton Sinclair’s revelations about the squalid conditions of meatpacking plants in Chicago, we can improve life for our essential workers not only in the fields but in those same plants today.Above all, we can prioritize and streamline food policy under a new cabinet-level Secretary of Food and Agriculture, with a seat on the National Security Council and a mission to improve our nation’s sustenance. We know that a poor diet leads to poor health, so while we wait for new coronavirus vaccines and therapies, improving the quality of our nourishment is the best way to improve our health. We need to prepare not just for recovery but for the next pandemic and the catastrophic threats represented by the climate crisis. By doing so, we can heal much more than hunger.
In central California, in the middle of the pandemic, my team was preparing meals for some members of the United Farm Workers, who pick America’s crops. “We work so hard so that people can get food on their tables. And yet we are the ones who do not have food for ourselves,” said Carolina Elston, who picks blueberries and table grapes. “Receiving this food is a recognition of how hard we work and contribute to the well-being of the country.”
Food is the fastest way to rebuild our sense of community. We can put people back to work preparing it, and we can put lives back together by fighting hunger. We need to hope for a better world in 2021, and there’s nothing more hopeful than the thought of sharing our food, and feeding a nation.
José Andrés is a chef and the founder of World Central Kitchen.
Before the pandemic, I believed there was a possibility to achieve many things. BUT Covid-19 has wrecked the economy and our debts at all levels of our nation will balloon in attempting a recovery.
I have been elated over gardening starting to mushroom in popularity, although it takes at least 10 to build and continually refine a garden to maximum production. I set the example in my part of the country, but few follow me. If local food shortages begin to develop, I will contact my mayor and propose that playgrounds be turned into Victory gardens, except for a small kids area of swings etc., where the kids can play and see food actually growing in the ground, instead of seeing food on grocery shelves.
There will be many sector collapses, but I have an open mind to a better future. You have to have that attitude in being a gardener.
Thanks for the book recommendation!
sumi
Interesting article that deserves to be addressed.I think we will find a good energy usage mix that will work for 50-100 years until better energy solutions emerge.We will continue to use crude oil and all it's products just at a sustainable rate that allows us to avoid a peak oil production crash.The ev/nuclear solution isn't expected to eliminate crude oil use just offset it for a time.We need to continue industrial growth and bring modern farming to all regions which requires modern farming vehicles and fertilizers.We can do this.America did it.We lost forests and now we have new forests.We will adjust!"Apocalypse Never" by Michael Shellenberger is a must read.He covers food production,plastics,global warming hysteria and nuclear power.There are real reasons to be hopeful.Social justice,economic and spiritual issues are being addressed.Yes they are.Enjoy the book!
One Little Problem With The "All-Electric" Auto Fleet: What Do We Do With All The "Waste" Gasoline?
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Dec 14, 2020 - 17:40
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/one-little-problem-all-electric-auto-fleet-what-do-we-do-all-waste-gasoline?fbclid=IwAR0lFWYXDvYTTqZx9DbKVkMuX0QnS7SbQrca4iYOtos8yhPsqOiS633hI3Y
"Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent."
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-peak-oil-era-is-suddenly-upon-us/
A year ago, if anyone in the petroleum business had suggested that the moment of Peak Oil had already passed, they would have been laughed right off the drilling rig. Then 2020 happened.
Planes stopped flying. Office workers stayed home. “Zooming with the grandkids” replaced driving to see family. A year of global hunkering yielded the sharpest drop in oil consumption since Henry Ford cobbled together the first Model T. At its worst, global demand dropped by a staggering 29 million barrels a day.
As a once-in-a-century pandemic played out, British oil giant BP Plc in September made an extraordinary call: Humanity’s thirst for oil may never again return to prior levels. That would make 2019 the high-water mark in oil history.
BP wasn’t the only one sounding an alarm. While none of the prominent forecasters were quite as bearish, predictions for peak oil started popping up everywhere. Even OPEC, the unflappably bullish cartel of major oil exporters, suddenly acknowledged an end in sight—albeit still two decades away. Taken together these forecasts mark an emerging view that this year’s drop in oil demand isn’t just another crash-and-grow event as seen throughout history. Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent.
It’s often difficult to recognize civilization-sized shifts in behavior until after they’ve occurred. Until the pandemic none of the major oil forecasters had seen an imminent demand peak. The debate won’t end now, especially with signs that the pandemic will ease in 2021. But if we look back from here and see the oil peak clearly in the past, what follows will be the evidence of how the energy future snuck up on us.
The peak no one saw coming
Energy analysts usually present multiple scenarios. The gap between each forecast comes down to differing assumptions about government policies, economic conditions and consumer preferences for things such as new electric cars and solar panels. A business-as-usual scenario assumes little impact from policy shifts or new technology.
Most analysts had only predicted declining demand for oil in improbably green scenarios that could only be achieved with far stronger global climate policies. What made BP’s 2020 forecast unique is that peak oil now snuck into its business-as-usual baseline. If technologies and pollution rules improve, the dropoff in demand would be even more swift.
The prospect of a 2019 peak went largely overlooked when BP released its highly regarded Energy Outlook in September. Pinpointing it was made more difficult by the fact that the company hadn’t yet included the latest real-world energy data from 2019.
The chart above updates the outlook with BP’s own oil figures for last year. It also presents estimates using BP’s calculations in exajoules—a more precise measure of energy consumption than a barrels-per-day figure. Without those changes, BP’s scenario suggested oil demand might plateau for the next decade before declining once and for all. BP didn’t respond to requests for comment.
A shakeup in oil accounting
Like any forecast, only time will tell if peak oil demand happened already or won’t come until 2040. That inescapable uncertainty is less important than the newfound agreement that a turning point is here.
The list of energy analysts who now foresee a peak in oil demand keeps growing. It includes Norway’s state-owned oil company Equinor (peaking around 2027-28), Norwegian energy researcher Rystad Energy (2028), French oil major Total SA (2030), consulting firm McKinsey (2033), clean-energy research group BloombergNEF (2035), and energy-industry advisors Wood Mackenzie (2035). The exporting nations of OPEC put the peak in 2040 while acknowledging that its new forecast might still prove too optimistic for oil.
Notable exceptions include the International Energy Agency, which sees demand “plateauing” but not quite peaking, and the U.S. Energy Information Agency. Both of these agencies advise governments on policy.
Fatih Birol, who leads the IEA, said oil demand can only come down with stronger government policies promoting electric cars and regulating petrochemicals. Even though a peak isn’t guaranteed, he told Bloomberg, “the value of oil is going down” and oil-dependent economies “have to prepare themselves before it’s too late.”
The year that lasts a generation
Oil prices rose this November, boosted by positive data from coronavirus vaccine trials and recovering demand in Asia. The sooner an effective vaccine can be deployed, the sooner the world can return to some picture of normalcy. But what will that look like?
“We’re not going back to the same economy,” U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned in mid-November. “We’re recovering, but to a different economy.” That new economy means people will continue working more from home, traveling less, and staying in to binge on digital programming. About two thirds of Covid’s impact on oil demand will be from setbacks to the global economy, according to BP’s estimates, and one third will be from permanent changes in behavior.
The gap between BP’s predictions for declining demand and the more bullish forecasts of OPEC and IEA can’t be explained by economic outlooks or remote work. Instead, it comes down to different readings of another shift clearly visible this year: drivers switching to battery-powered cars and trucks. Transportation slurps up more than half of the world’s crude, and three quarters of that goes specifically to wheels on the road. Forecasts for electric vehicles end up shaping the outlook for oil.
Electric cars didn’t brake for Covid
For the first nine months of 2020, car sales cratered. Every major automaker was affected—with the notable exception of Tesla. The electric automaker sold more cars than ever before. Even as the rest of the economy stood frozen, Tesla posted its longest stretch of profitable quarters and ended the year with inclusion in the S&P 500 stock index.
A closer look at the data shows it wasn’t just a Tesla story. Electric vehicles in general managed to thrive even as sales of traditional cars broke down. Both Volkswagen and Daimler saw record-setting declines in total sales, even while sales at their EV divisions doubled.
For backers of electric cars, 2020 was a gut check. It could have been disastrous. Some of the most important EV models to date were launched smack in the middle of the pandemic, including Tesla’s Model Y sport utility vehicle in February and VW’s ID.3 hatchback in September. If consumers rejected them, it could have set back EV investment by years. They did not.
At a time when the world turned upside down, sales of electric cars defied gravity.
No comeback for fossil-fuel cars
During the lockdowns of 2020, city skies cleared of pollution. Bike sales took off. Ethanol intended to be used as a gasoline additive instead made it into hand sanitizer. In many places the faltering economy wasn’t a reason to eliminate environmental regulations—it became a moment to double down.
The divided fortunes of internal combustion engines (ICE) and electric drivetrains was first noticed in 2018, a year when EVs bucked the trend of slowing auto sales. Some analysts started to wonder if fossil-fuel vehicles might never return to sales levels of 2017. Back then the idea of Peak ICE was just a theory. The pandemic made it real.
For peak oil to stick, it will require gradually supplanting more than one billion vehicles in the world. It also means batteries will have to prove themselves in challenging new markets such as freight trucks, which account for more than 15% of oil use, and gas-guzzling pickup trucks, which in 2020 surpassed car sales in the U.S. for the first time.
Batteries for everything on the road
Automakers are working on 35 new all-electric vehicles to be released next year, according to a tally by BNEF. In 2020, Tesla broke ground on a factory in Austin, Texas, to build pickup trucks and big rigs. Well-funded EV startups Rivian and Lucid Motors put the finishing touches on their make-or-break vehicles. Volkswagen sold the first cars on its new modular platform underpinning dozens of future electric models. Chinese automakers prepared for debuts in new Western markets: BYD’s Tang EV600, Geely’s Polestar 2, Xpeng’s P7.
Here are some of the most hotly anticipated models getting ready to hit the streets in 2021.
Battery cars achieved a price-parity milestone
Batteries are a technology, not a fuel, which means the more that are produced, the cheaper they are to make. In fact, every time the global supply of batteries doubles, the cost drops by about 18%, according to data tracked by BNEF. Historically, EVs have been more expensive to build than gasoline cars. That’s changing.
The past year saw the first companies reaching the Holy Grail in battery packs: a cost of $100 per kilowatt hour. That’s the point that analysts have long believed will bring the cost of building electric cars in line with similar gasoline-fueled vehicles. After that, EVs will only get cheaper.
Volkswagen, the biggest automaker by cars sold, confirmed that its batteries had reached the $100 threshold for its 2020 ID.3 sedan and upcoming ID.4 compact SUV. China’s CATL, the world’s biggest battery supplier, also claimed $100 battery nirvana as it struck deals across the auto industry.
Not to be outdone, Tesla hosted an elaborate “battery day” event in September. The audience watched from a parking lot full of Teslas as CEO Elon Musk showed off plans to manufacture battery cells, a first for any
automaker, and to reduce battery costs 56% by 2023. Even if Musk’s estimates are a few years too optimistic—as they sometimes are—it would still put Tesla years ahead of mainstream industry forecasts.
Mass-market EVs became possible only with the falling price of batteries. What comes next could be a virtuous cycle of cost declines. As battery prices improve, customers will snap up more electric cars, making battery prices even cheaper.
Europe’s electric push
Europe has taken back the electric-vehicle crown from China. This year, tough new EU fuel-efficiency regulations kicked in just before the virus did. Consumers responded. In oil-rich Norway, more than 70% of new cars sold in 2020 came with a plug. EV market share across Europe soared to 11% of all new cars in the third quarter, nearly doubling the adoption rate in China.
Under Europe’s new fuel-efficiency rules, companies that fail to reduce their emissions must pay steep fines or else pay a company with cleaner cars to pool emissions and avoid the fees. That option has been a boon for Tesla, creating a revenue stream big enough to pay for its first European factory. Tesla broke ground in Berlin during the pandemic and will start producing cars there next year.
In China, meanwhile, the pandemic provided an unexpected boost for EVs. As part of a pandemic stimulus, EV subsidies that were set to expire in April were extended through 2022. Then in September, the country shocked the world with a pledge to eliminate the net carbon dioxide emissions of the world’s most polluting economy by 2060. Japan and South Korea followed, vowing net-zero emissions by 2050.
The last geopolitical piece to fall into place in 2020 was the U.S., which is responsible for burning one out of every five barrels of oil in the world. President Trump had pulled the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord, slashed vehicle efficiency standards, and allowed clean-energy subsidies to expire. Then he lost the election.
One of President-elect Joe Biden’s first moves afterwards was to name former Secretary of State John Kerry as special envoy for climate, a new cabinet-level position. Kerry, an architect of the Paris pact, vowed to rejoin it on the new administration’s first day. A push to set a 2050 end-date for U.S. emissions and a drive to clean up the U.S. electrical grid are likely to follow.
Now the three biggest global powers—the U.S., China, and Europe—are poised to push again on policies that accelerate the transition from oil. Together, the three are responsible for burning more than half of all the world’s crude.
Shifting winds of politics aren’t included in most energy forecasts, says Nat Bullard of BloombergNEF. The geopolitical backdrop gives further credence to the idea that oil demand will plateau and decline, rather than breach new highs. “This moment we’re in has accelerated a lot of change and, amazingly, kept a lot of climate-change policy on the books that could have easily been reneged on,” Bullard says.
California sets a road block for gas cars
There are policy tools available for weaning the world from oil-burning vehicles. One is to simply ban them. Dozens of cities, states, countries and regions have set such targets to phase out new sales of gasoline cars. This year California joined the bunch, setting a phaseout goal of 2035. If California were a country, it would rank above Russia among the top 10 car markets in the world.
The U.K. likewise moved its goal to 2035, up from 2040 previously. Prime Minister Boris Johnson also required that any new car sold after 2030 must at least have a hybrid drivetrain capable of running on a battery.
Most of these bans aren’t codified into laws—at least not with repercussions for cheaters. Instead, policymakers use them to support ambitious policies along the way that are necessary for hitting the target. California has successfully used similar long-term targets to shape its renewable-energy policies, making it one of at least a dozen U.S. states that have policies to eventually mandate entirely green electricity grids.
21st century power transitions
At a London hotel in February, BP’s new chief executive, Bernard Looney, delivered his first speech from a podium bedazzled with a green “Reimagine BP” logo. He described one of the industry’s most far-reaching plans to cut net emissions to zero in 30 years. Two months later, Royal Dutch Shell said that it, too, would zero out emissions by 2050. In May came Total SA, France’s biggest oil producer. Spain’s Repsol and Italy’s Eni had made their own pledges back in 2019.
While key details varied—and were sometimes conspicuously lacking— “net zero emissions” became a sort of demarcation line drawn through the oil industry. Lined up against the old guard are the oil companies that no longer want to be known as oil companies.
It’s difficult to tell which came first for the transitioners. Did a changing outlook for long-term demand result in an overhaul in business strategies?Or were the forecasts for peak oil meant to justify a new business strategy born of public pressure? Perhaps a bit of both—and for the end result, it may not matter.
For investors, one thing is clear: the oil patch has lost its shimmer. Exxon, which was the most valuable company in the world as recently as 2013, was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average index this year. It’s now vying to remain above the market value of NextEra Energy Inc., a Florida-based mega-utility focused on wind and solar, which briefly overtook it in October.
Tesla’s stock this year has been on a record-breaking tear, surpassing the value of the next five automakers combined. Stock markets reward growth. Just look at Amazon’s sky-high stock price back when online retail was still a novelty or Netflix’s valuation when cable-TV still dominated. When it comes to the future of oil demand, the market is speaking very clearly.
The term “peak oil” didn’t always refer to demand. It started with the premise that the world’s supply of crude was finite. Eventually no matter how hard drillers tried, they wouldn’t be able to pull more oil out of the ground. A transportation crisis would ensue.
The peak oil hypothesis dominated economic thinking for decades. But it turned out that with fracking, deep-water drilling, and oil sands, there’s a lot more oil than we once thought. More recently, the idea of a demand-driven peak took hold. Petrostates fear it, environmentalists pray for it.
‘The writing is all over the bloody wall’
The reason so much attention is given to peak oil is that it can be a turning point from a market where oil is scarce to one where there’s more cheap crude than people know what to do with. The risk of investing in new oil supplies increases. Investors pull back. Political power wanes.
In many ways, Big Oil already began transitioning to an era of excess supply during the oil crash of 2014 to 2016. In the years preceding that crisis, oil prices averaged roughly $110 per barrel and most forecasts imagined similar prices for decades to come. Then came a glut of unexpected supply, driving prices down to less than $40. The value of oil assets was written down by more than $500 billion, according to data
collected by research firm Evaluate Energy. The outlook never recovered.
In the first half of 2020, when oil demand suddenly vanished in the pandemic, the industry wrote down a fresh $170 billion. For U.S. companies, it was the equivalent of 18% of proven reserves. That’s money wiped from the books because companies no longer believed in the value of their oil deposits.
The 2020 write-downs are exceeded only by the second half of 2015, the peak of the last crisis. And there’s more to come. Exxon on Monday logged record charges of as much as $20 billion.
For the five Western supermajors, the 2020 write-downs have already exceeded the last crisis, by far.
If oil companies were only focused on a short-term pandemic crash, BNEF oil analyst David Doherty believes the response would not have been so severe. These charges are more about faltering confidence in long-term demand—peak oil. “The writing is all over the bloody wall,” Doherty says.
Most oil forecasts—at least the business-as-usual scenarios—estimate that even if oil demand peaks, it will continue to play a defining role in energy markets for the foreseeable future. Markets for petrochemicals will continue to grow, and both aviation and shipping will be relatively untouched.
Don’t be so sure. The same market pressures being applied to road transport and moving into other industries. Alternatives to petrochemicals are under development. Small electric planes and hybrid aircraft for longer distance are moving out of the prototype stage. It’s only a matter of time before tanker ships start running on hydrogen.
Once a technology reaches scale and price parity, conditions can change dramatically. That happened with coal, which was expected to dominate for decades—until cheaper natural gas and renewable energy came along. U.S. coal demand peaked in 2008. Nine years later Peabody Energy, the world’s largest coal producer, was bankrupt.
Sunshine is the new oil
For the last century, transport fuels and electricity generation have been almost entirely separate industries. Oil was for vehicles, coal was for power. Drillers versus miners, petrostates versus power utilities. There was very little crossover. For years, the oil industry has watched what was happening to coal and insisted it wouldn’t happen to them.
Back in 2015, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance told Bloomberg it would take another 50 years for electric cars to have a material impact on oil demand—probably not in his lifetime. That was the widely held view just five years ago. Few in the oil industry would make that case today.
With the electrification of transport, the distinction between liquid fuels and power markets is blurring. Solar power is now the cheapest form of new energy capacity in most of the world, which means that as power markets grow to meet the new demand from EVs, oil is being largely displaced by power from the sun.
Forecasting energy transitions is painstaking work. For almost two decades, the International Energy Agency’s base scenario has consistently underestimated the rise of solar power. Every year, the models expected the rate of growth to level off, for the industry of solar installers to stop hiring. Every year it did the opposite. This record shows the hazards of basing decisions about the future on today’s policies and technologies, especially when history shows that neither stands still.
The IEA changed its view on solar this year. In the introduction to its 2020 World Energy Outlook, the IEA’s Birol dubbed solar “the new king of electricity.” He wrote that “based on today’s policy settings, it is on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022.”
When discussing their forecasts, energy analysts take great pains to point out that they are not making predictions of what will happen but rather presenting different scenarios about what could happen. As Birol frequently points out, the timing of peak oil depends entirely on what the world does next.
The food system is global so there is more good than bad as food can be imported and farming production can be increased as one region gets hit by bad weather,disease or insects.There is storage and people can adjust their consumption so things are not terrible.I would love to see more local gardens in every city and town.Schools and other institutions can have gardens as well.It will be interesting to watch for a reversal of the centralization of food production.It's hard to change habits but the AI trend will kill off jobs and a new focus on less time working is going to change life as we know it.Big change is required and new thinking will develop and shape societies much more than most can imagine.The only chains we have are brain chains.We are shifting into a new age.This is going to be an amazing transformation.Most of our beliefs are going to get a big shock.We have barely scratched the surface of human potential.Keep on growing your own food and keep on growing your mind.You are doing great!
Interesting trends shown in this article, especially China's efforts.
I hope we succeed in the transportation area, but in the U.S., the problem that plagues me is that around 4% of population supplies food for the other 96%. This is a dangerous imbalance in a crazy world.
As hard as I personally try to produce food, I still heavily rely on food store purchases. I need a small farm somewhere in the south to grow food during the entire year. Here's what I will be leaving...
sumi
Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales Ban by 2035 is the trend.
New Jersey Joins California in Calling for Gas-Powered Vehicle Sales Ban by 2035 https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2020/10/new-jersey-joins-california-in-calling-for-gas-powered-vehicle-sales-ban-by-2035/
States aren't alone in their plans regarding ICE vehicles.
by Joseph Szczesny | Oct 21, 2020
“Currently, gasoline-fueled vehicles account for over 70% of the transportation sector’s emissions. The 2019 EMP least cost scenario modeling, which assumed a 15-year lifecycle, calculated that 88% of new light-duty vehicle sales (passenger cars, SUVs and light-duty trucks) will need to be battery electric or hydrogen-powered by 2030, rising to 100% by 2035, in order to achieve the 80×50 goal,” the report said.
Car makers from the U.S., Asia and the Europe are preparing for a future where electric vehicles become the prevailing form of both commercial and personal transportation. Just this week, General Motors unveiled its new GMC Hummer all-electric pickup truck and announced plans to invest $2 billion to convert an assembly plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee to build the first-ever all-electric Cadillac, the Lyriq. Meanwhile Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. confirmed it will invest $1.2 billion in a plant in Windsor, Ontario to build EVs in addition to its Chrysler Pacifica minivan.
Bans on vehicles with gasoline or diesel engines underscore the dilemma facing carmakers. On the one hand, they would prefer to keep selling vehicles with gas engines for which there is a ready demand. On the other, the bans could accelerate the shift to electric vehicles, which is currently moving slowly and leave them with billions of dollars in stranded investment.
Nov 20,"We’ve Probably Passed Peak Oil"
Report: Rapid Transport Decarbonization Means We’ve Probably Passed Peak Oil https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/rapid-transport-decarbonization-means-weve-probably-passed-peak-oil
The global peak in oil consumption may already be past us, according to a new report from Carbon Tracker — and the rapid transition to low-carbon transport in China and India is the reason why.
The report released Friday underscores the role that transportation in emerging economies will play in future oil demand and how quickly falling battery costs and increasingly aggressive decarbonization policies are accelerating the shift from fossil-fueled to electric vehicles.
Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that 80 percent of the projected growth in demand for oil from now to 2030 is from transport in emerging economies. China and India are responsible for half of that projected growth.
But the IEA's current forecasts haven't yet accounted for the dramatic policy shifts coming from Beijing. In September, China's President Xi Jinping told the U.N. General Assembly that the country was aiming to hit peak carbon in 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. The details will be laid out in the country's 14th five-year plan.
Kingsmill Bond, lead author of the Carbon Tracker report, told GTM that the shift implied in China's announcement adds important new data to future oil demand projections.
“We've demonstrated that the key driver of expected oil demand growth in the next decade (if you take the business-as-usual step scenario) is...emerging market transportation,” he said. But if future transport electrifies, "it basically means that the demand [from transport] is essentially flat, and that...removes almost all of the demand growth for oil."
"It's a really significant issue,” he added. While aviation and shipping also account for a portion of future oil growth, 92 percent of transportation in emerging economies is road transport.
“Energy security is firmly on Beijing’s radar amid rising tensions with the West,” Hugo Brennan, principal Asia analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, told GTM in an email.
“China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, and Beijing is acutely aware that this represents a strategic vulnerability. Beijing is keen to reduce its heavy dependence on foreign oil, particularly seaborne supply from politically unstable regions that must transit strategic chokepoints,” he added.
Bond points to the fact that electrification is well underway in China, with 60 percent of two-wheelers and 60 percent of buses electrified. The country’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in October that to hit the 2060 goal, all car sales in China will need to be EV or hybrid by 2035.
Many oil majors are already preparing for this scenario by boosting their capabilities in EV infrastructure and hydrogen. Last week, Shell signed off on its first commercial hydrogen project in China. BP is the EV charging partner of DiDi, which is China’s equivalent of Uber. DiDi and BYD are building a new EV designed specifically for ride-sharing.
What is playing out in India is the seemingly inevitable economics of falling battery costs. The cost of an electric-powered and a petrol-powered three-wheeled rickshaw are now equal, so the lower running costs of an e-rickshaw are winning out, he said.
In 2018-2019, 3.38 million passenger cars were sold in India compared to 21.18 million two-wheelers, according to auto-industry figures. Bond expects that as battery prices continue to fall, two-wheel transport will follow rickshaws and become dominated by battery-powered drivetrains.
Ultimately, building out transportation infrastructure from a lower base provides emerging economies a chance to leapfrog to the low-carbon era.
“The average person in the United States uses 1.9 tons of oil a year for transportation. The average person in India uses 0.1 tons," he said. "So if you're the Indian government today, you've got to either build out a network of refineries and metro stations and pipelines or you've got to build out a grid network, one or the other."
Given that one system offers energy independence and the many benefits of improved air quality and lower carbon, Bond is confident about which way things will go: “It's much more likely that you're going to build an electric-based transport system than an oil-based one because it's the future, basically.”
The future is looking much better with a less oil dependent energy mix and less focus on producing and consuming stuff we don't need.We are going to get healthy,waste less and pollute less.Humans are going to shift from killing and controlling to thriving through a transformation from wrong headed believes about our nature.We have achieved amazing things and we are going to shock ourselves with the amazing world we are going to get busy creating this decade.We have barely tapped into our potential as a species.Gloom and doom is toast.End times thinking is stinking up the planet from religions,politicians and scientists.That trend is about to end.It's time to dare to dream big dreams and get busy making them so.We lost our way after the assassination's of the Kennedys and MLK and the evil sacrifice of our soldiers to a wrong headed war in Vietnam.We stopped growing into a better species that was ready to end racism and other inequities.We silenced our emotional/spiritual voices and doubled down on producing and consuming stuff.This imbalanced living is killing us.We have reached the tipping point thanks to COVID-19.The door is open for a very exciting time of healing and reimagining. Take Care!
The World you know is Ending
Forget Peak Oil Demand, Supply Crisis Could be Hitting First https://news.yahoo.com/forget-peak-oil-demand-supply-111341407.html
Demand is going to recover, levels will be reaching at least 5-10 million bpd above 2019 levels by 2030, possibly hitting 115-120 million bpd by 2040. Between 2020-2030 latter extra volumes needed is twice the Saudi Al Ghawar field production.
Where most analysis in the media really goes wrong is that it only looks at demand increase. The main issue at present to deal with is to assess the normal decline of producing fields globally. If taking a very conservative approach of 7% decline per year, we are looking at extra production to be found of 6-7 million bpd to counter yearly decline overall. Putting this in place for the period 2020-2025 we are talking about new production to come onstream of 25-30 million bpd at least.
Without investing in existing and future production, oil storage volumes worldwide will crash, showing empty barrels or tanks very soon. By repeating peak oil demand scenarios and reports, the media and financial analysts are creating a lack of urgency that will bite the hands it feeds. Maybe the IEA assessments will need to some new rational analysis than we have seen before.
You're a breath of fresh air, my friend.
I've been in training for a societal change since the late 1950s with my playpen next to my maternal Grandma's large garden built for survival during the 1930s.
I graduated from playpen to a rope tied around my waist to crawl up and down rows of vegetables. I was taught that "gardening is food insurance," and that "the earth was nature's refrigerator" during the summer [moist soil keeps vegetable fresh] and buying them in a store is the beginning of their death in a refrigerator.
I gave up driving a car in 1970, so I rely on walking and trolley. A bike might be a possibility once the highways see much reduced driving.
My bucket list is almost non existent; a trip to the woods along a river satisfies my needs and gives me great pleasure.
The pandemic has been driving most people nuts, but I've been too busy growing food for the winter.
In essence, my gardening lifestyle had kept me younger than most my age. Five years ago I began singing karaoke on the Internet; I seem to be good because I get invited to sing a lot.
I think there is a lot out there for many people, but people my age are looking for the end. During the pandemic, I lost 29 pounds through work and reduced eating. I'm nearly the weight when I was running track at age 19. I encourage others to set goals of reduced standard of living and how to enjoy themselves.
I posted some late season pictures of my garden. Perhaps a small greenhouse will be added next year.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=158826558
I hope that the planet will heal as you indicated.
sumi
I'm thinking EV's and nuclear power will do the trick as well as changing consumption habits as we attempt to transition from our dissatisfying lives.Less and less people will want to even own a car so demand for EVs won't be as high as we might project.A balanced and healthy life is what we want but we have been consumption driven and focused on material stuff.This is changing and change will happen quicker from here.We might address food issues and manage too avoid a massive die-off.Humans are amazing problem solvers and can adapt quickly when necessary.I think we are in for some wonderful surprises in the post COVID-19 recovery.The social soil is ready for big change.It's time to dream impossible dreams IMO.I'm very hopeful and excited.This is a big change for me.Mankind has entered a new era of understanding that is hard to see if we are looking through disappointed eyes and watching mass media.There is good stuff happening just below the surface.These developments can erupt into the mainstream in a blink of an eye.I'm preparing for positive change to overtake us.The next decade could be very surprising to the preppers and gloomers.The scientists that have drank the end times Kool-Aid are going have egg on their faces as well.I smell wonderful smells of new dishes being served up.I see a new and improved culture.I see beauty growing out of the ugly.We are so ready for real and healthy change.Solutions are available now.We will be healed.The planet will heal.Stay tuned.The show is going to be uplifting.The ugly will fade away next year.Take Good Care!
Thermodynamic Oil Collapse & Future
October 7, 2020
SRSrocco Report
Interview on the Thermodynamic Oil Collapse with Dr. Louis Arnoux
Contact Dr. Arnoux: https://www.fourthtransitionwealth.com/
My pleasure always. My big weakness is a lack of canning skills. I should have learned years ago when my Mom was alive, as she was an expert.
Yes, "doing" is a lot different than "talking." When I hear people saying "I will live off the land if there is a collapse." I tell them that they should have started a decade earlier. It's like compound interest growing over a long period of time.
Certainly this pandemic year proves my point. I could not get many gardening supplies for months! In fact, I'm still waiting for Mason jars.
There is so much of garden learning, and mistakes can be crippling. I speak for me, as I destroyed my first tomato garden. Forgot all the things my Grandma taught me! After that first failure year, I became known as the tomato king! So I kept growing tomatoes yearly along with peppers and cucumbers. What happens? In 2009, New England had a severe tomato blight. In 2010 and up to now, my producing garden is ten times larger with mixed gardening. I spread the risk over many crops of vegetables, herbs, and aronia berries.
That old Dutch adage of "We grow too soon old and too late smart" is applicable to me and many others. We can often be our biggest enemy. We need to look at mirrors to solve our problems, at least as a beginning.
Take care, my friend.
sumi
I love your personal stories.You have great insight and I treasure your "doing" as I need to do more and talk less.You are a priceless role model and mentor.Thank you so much for sharing YOU!
Hello HH, Sorry for the late response, as I've been trying to prepare for the winter via my city garden. I think and know that home gardens will be part of future home food needs. Last year I had a friend who I assisted in building a garden enclosure to protect against the animal onslaught of my important food. This year was experiment; I did a lot right and a few things wrong, but overall it was a massive success. Below is the 200 square food garden enclosure. I financed the supplies for two enclosures, one for me to assist my contractor to build and one for him, so he had his son assist him.
Sadly, the world's population continued growth is about to hit the wall because of sickness due to a pandemic and Mother Nature's store of declining resources, space, and water. I have always maintained that "progress is regress in disguise." The more we advanced, the more that we wanted; it was a non-ending progression of converting desires into needs.
You, HH, and I are like voices in a desert, with our thoughts and life approaches. What is important to me? Given the choice of a brand new car versus a delivery of aged horse manure for twenty years, I would take the latter. The manure would grow a continuous supply of food while the car would eventually end up in a junk yard. Under this simple scenario, who ends up better for society? The gardener, who grows food plus supplies free tomato and pepper seedlings to ten un-retired friends, versus the person driving around and around and around?
I oversimplify things with my above example because there are billions of people living in cities, which will not be sustainable over time. Time will tell how many will die when the trucks stop delivering food to stock the big-box grocery stores. I look back to my formative years of the 1950s when people took trains into the cities for work and cities were surrounded by farms to supply food. What would have been an ideal setup was destroyed by "progress."
Whatever improved government is developed, I would hope that term limits are tightly applied. I recall when I worked in a bank and had an employee with a career of 40 years processing financial instruments. I had to evaluate her work plus her coverage of emergency help elsewhere. I had to give her a negative evaluation with the provision that she had to be cross-trained in other areas to improve her skills. Here retort was "I have 40 years experience in my job!" My retort was "you have 1 year's experience 40 times!" I cross-trained her, as she had great potential, gave her solid work evaluations that provided her a solid pension. Again, I use a simple example to highlight too much of doing the same thing repeatedly.
In a world of Peak Oil, we will be tortured into a new existence. Reality will hit and decisions will have to be made. New forms of government and of business will have to be adopted in a more narrow availability of natural resources. The warnings over population and over use of resources of the 1970s were ignored and now will have to be confronted. Where that leaves you, me and others will be dramatically in a new life form. If we return to the 1950s, the impact will be less for me versus the many enjoying the modern life. I stopped driving in 1969; I know the other side and it can be challenging.
I had a great garlic harvest, but it was last, so the planting of pole beans to affix nitrogen into the the soil for the next planting of garlic was also delayed. But the beans now have blossoms, but the nights are getting colder, so my bean harvest is not assured. There are always challenges in the soil.
One-third of my garlic harvest!
Tetsukabuto Hybrid Winter squash and pole beans
Future scenarios are so interesting!I'm inclined to believe a massive and fast die-off will be followed by a modern world fueled by next generation nuclear,oil,coal,natural gas and renewables.This will be a new world with new and improved versions of governments and economic systems.We have been too influenced by our own life experiences and current belief systems that it's difficult to embrace "alien" ideas outside of our comfort zones.There are wonderful solutions already in place for some of our big problems including education and criminal justice.A much smaller population will be able keep our modern technologies fueled with a different energy mix that will continue to seek to ween us off of non-renewables and our food needs will bet easier to manage.There will be less stress on the planet so there will be natural healing of the air,water and land.The survivors of a sudden and massive die-off will be less wasteful and work to restore the damage we have done to the planet and each other.There is reason to hope for a better world.We are amazing creatures with powerful imaginations,adaptation abilities and a fantastic capacity to pull together and accomplish extraordinary things.We will apply old ways to our newer ways.Old social ways,old farming ways and old religious ways will influence and inform us as we rebuild and transform.I see it happening now even in the U.S.The are hopeful signs on every continent.A die-off is not a pleasant thing to anticipate and I hope it doesn't occur.But if it does there is so much we have that will influence the rebuild that is much better than what is happening on the nightly news.Big positive and healthy change is in the air.Take care!
Will life after peak oil be like the middle ages?
Posted on September 2, 2020 by energyskeptic
Preface. Winston recreates what life was like from the 5th to the 15th centuries — from the fall of the Roman Empire to the beginning of the Renaissance.
Energyskeptic.com shows why hydrogen, wind, solar, geothermal, nuclear, fusion, and other alternatives to fossil fuels can’t replace them. So it is worth knowing how people lived before fossils if we’re doomed to go back to Wood World after peak oil, where biomass was the main source of heat and infrastructure.
If only peak oil, rather than climate change, had been understood as the main problem facing us, we could have prepared for the future much better. We could have had civil engineers figuring out how to insulate homes better, build roads to last as long as the Roman ones still around today, and other infrastructure for future generations. Organic farming would start in earnest, horses be bred to replace tractors, materials scientists would find ways to preserve knowledge that lasted longer than paper. Stone fences built since barbed wire will rust away. Social structures like guilds, who enforced high standards lest all of them not be trusted put in place. Tens of thousands of small granaries to keep pests from devouring crops post-harvest.
I’m sure as you read this you can think of ways to prepare now for the future, and most of all, a social system that doesn’t make most of us poor peasants.
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/will-life-after-peak-oil-be-like-the-middle-ages/?fbclid=IwAR2sEe52k3fuL2yttBJ3yicYZQ9mjaEcLzoD4PppB24XzVIwz-Soa-aJ6Q0
How (Not) to Run a Modern Society on Solar and Wind Power Alone
https://tinyurl.com/y6ebpfy8
"Oil May Finally Be Peaking" BY EDOARDO CAMPANELLA | JULY 13, 2020
After Decades of Wrong Predictions, Oil May Finally Be Peaking
Thanks to the pandemic, demand is flattening faster than expected. In turn, the energy economy could transform sooner rather than later.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/13/peak-oil-pandemic-predictions/
"Now, the coronavirus pandemic, which appears to be accelerating trends—greener economies and decreased mobility—that until February seemed to be at least one decade away, might finally break the mold. This time, though, peak oil could come on the demand side of the market rather than on the supply one. Such change would mark a shift from perceived oil scarcity to oil abundance that could radically transform the structure of the oil market—even more than the shale revolution itself.
"Given the variety of long-term demand scenarios, energy companies have typically brushed off peak-demand arguments. However, COVID-19 might change that if it permanently transforms individuals’ behavior and societal priorities.
"Mobility is the No. 1 factor that could change the calculations. Although tourist activity is likely to rebound and return to pre-crisis levels in a couple of years, especially if a coronavirus vaccine is found, remote work arrangements might drastically reduce commuting mileage for millions of workers. According to some estimates, in the eurozone, over a quarter of jobs can, at least in theory, be performed from home. Similar estimates apply to the United States, too. In Europe, the average one-way work commute is just over 9 miles, whereas in the United States it is above 11 miles. Imagine the gasoline saved if millions of people stop commuting.
"Moreover, COVID-19 might lead to a significant decline in business trips in favor of videoconferencing that would not only reduce operational costs but could also lead to productivity gains thanks to more time spent at the desk than in an airport. Some industrial activities might even be reshored to reduce vulnerability to shocks that affect business partners located elsewhere around the globe, particularly for the production of goods in sensitive sectors such as health or national security. The shortage of face masks, which had primarily been produced in China, during the early days of the pandemic forced governments not only to find new suppliers but also to suddenly encourage the conversion of some domestic firms into mask producers. And new digital technologies that tend to reduce reliance on low-skilled workers will lower the incentives for companies to slice and dice their production around the world. The Fourth Industrial Revolution could significantly compress the length of global value chains.
"Finally, the positive impact of the lockdowns on air quality might incentivize greener behavior in the future. In April, when around 4 billion people were stuck at home, air pollution suddenly dropped across the world, suggesting to policymakers a clear direction for seriously reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Voters might strongly push in this direction. Clearly, the solution is not shutting down entire economies. But governments might introduce tax incentives to induce companies to rely more on flexible arrangements for those jobs that can be efficiently performed remotely. Moreover, the cycling routes that were built across the major cities to reduce the use of public transportation may well remain permanently.
"All these behavior changes would have a big impact on oil demand.
"The World Isn’t Ready for Peak Oil"
7:00 AM ET Amos Hochstein
Former U.S. Special Envoy for International Energy Affairs
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/were-not-ready-transition-away-oil/613621/
"The coronavirus oil shock is not a one-off crisis; it is a dress rehearsal for a future fast unfolding."
"The world is, after all, in the midst of an inevitable transition away from fossil fuels, and there can be little doubt that an effective climate-change strategy will reduce substantially the demand for oil. The details of the efforts to combat climate-change will determine how—and how soon—the world reaches peak oil. But reach it, it will, or perhaps it already has."
Areas Of The World More Vulnerable To Collapse
Posted by SRSrocco in Economy, Energy, News on June 15, 2018
https://srsroccoreport.com/areas-of-the-world-more-vulnerable-to-collapse/?fbclid=IwAR1eDv6DVMpgB1x1ROjWHxGLQiQrAi0vXhyyE6cWnWN5oPZu8LWX1-mL4ug
RED WARNING LIGHT: The World Is Rapidly Burning Through Its Conventional Oil Reserves
Posted by SRSrocco in Energy, News on February 14, 2020
https://srsroccoreport.com/red-warning-light-the-world-is-rapidly-burning-through-its-conventional-oil-reserves/?fbclid=IwAR3_eR_cQ-Nvqoq0XKLEdi8N9fRUALNBIeiqq1UvwvKIUQeJYaE_swOKP9o
Understanding the Crude Oil Market
Pricing Differentials Between Brent Crude and WTI
By Andrew Hecht
Updated January 31, 2020
https://www.thebalance.com/crude-oil-brent-versus-wti-808872
Peak Oil Review – 28 October 2019
Posted On : 28 Oct 2019 Published By : Clara Winter
Editors: Tom Whipple, Steve Andrews
https://peak-oil.org/peak-oil-review-28-october-2019/
Quote of the Week
“By any measure, the amount of private money currently allocated in the US to plug and reclaim oil and gas wells is a small fraction of the real costs. That means oil and gas wells — and the US had 1 million active wells and even more abandoned — will either be left to fail and potentially contaminate the surrounding water, air, and soil, or the public will have to pick up the tab. This represents just one of the many ways the public subsidizes the oil and gas industry.”
Justin Mikulka, DeSmog blog site
Graphic of the Week
1. Energy prices and production
Prices were up about $2 last week on an unexpected drawdown in US crude stocks and rumors that OPEC+ is considering another production cut. Forecasters see a supply glut continuing in 2020 due to slowing economies and growth in US shale oil production. Beyond that, prices could increase considerably as supply growth slows to a trickle. Goldman Sachs says that slowing US shale production growth combined with a shortage of investment in long-term projects will lead to a new boom.
Goldman lowered its forecast for US oil production growth to 0.7 million b/d in 2020, down sharply from its 1 million b/d forecast previously. Goldman attributed the downward revision not just to a slowdown in drilling, but also to “updated longer-term decline rates to be consistent with play-to-date results” –a complicated way of saying shale wells are not performing as well as previously anticipated.
Reuters says OPEC+ may announce larger cuts in response to weak demand at its December meeting. A cut is not certain, however, as Moscow and Riyadh want to see 100 percent compliance with the existing production cuts before cutting more. Iraq and Nigeria, for instance, have produced more than their quotas. Moreover, Russia poured cold water on the idea last week, with its energy minister saying that nobody from OPEC+ had proposed production cuts. There are some reasons, however, why OPEC+ might implement deeper cuts. Seasonal demand is lower in the winter, so larger cuts would be in keeping with seasonal swings.
The news from the shale oil industry continues to be gloomy. Financing is running dry for large portions of the US shale oil industry, forcing drillers into bankruptcy and threatening the industry’s growth. The financial reckoning has been a long time coming. In the aftermath of the 2014-15 oil price crash, US oil and gas producers managed to raise $56.6 billion from equity and debt capital markets in 2016. This year they have raised just $19.4 billion, even though US oil production has grown by more than a third in the past three years.
The first- and third-largest oilfield service companies in the world saw their earnings hit in the third quarter due to the slowdown in US shale drilling. Schlumberger took a $12.7 billion impairment charge related to its North American business, a rather dramatic write-down. That led to an $11.4 billion loss for the quarter, the largest in the company’s history. Halliburton also saw its earnings hit by the slowdown in shale drilling and the oilfield services giant shifted its focus to international markets as the signs of a shale rebound do not appear to be imminent.
The US oil and gas rig count fell sharply last week with a drop of 25 rigs. This marks nine decreases out of the previous ten weeks. The total number of active oil rigs in the United States decreased by 17, according to the report, reaching 696. That marks the first time since April 2017 that the oil rig count has fallen below 700.
In a recent report, IHS Markit concludes that the trend toward unconventional projects has caused the number of conventional discoveries to plunge to a 70-year low.
Although unconventional projects give oil and gas firms more flexibility in responding to market changes, the wide disparity in depletion rates between unconventional and conventional wells could become particularly evident in years to come, given the shortfall in conventional reserves additions.
US shale production growth is slowing down, and America’s shale output will likely peak in the next few years, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday. “We see that there is slowing activity in US shale, although that production continues to grow, growth is weaker than in previous years,” Novak told reporters in Sochi. The number of drilling rigs in the United States dropped by 160 in a year, Novak noted.
2. Geopolitical instability
Chaos increased across the Middle East last week as Turkish and Russian forces moved to secure their new Kurd-free security zone; protests against the government resumed in Iraq; and nationwide protests that have going on for nearly two weeks in Lebanon. With the US, Russia, the Assad government, Kurds, ISIS, and Syrian rebel groups all trying to control some portion of what was once Kurdish territory, chaos is bound to result from years of confrontation.
There are not many working oil wells left in Syria even though the US just sent tanks into Syria to keep ISIS from taking control of any working oil wells from the Kurds. Before Syria’s 2011 revolution and the ensuing civil war, the country had a lucrative oil industry, pumping about 400,000 barrels a day. The war devastated Syria’s economy, cutting production by as much as 90% and forcing the Assad regime to rely heavily on imports of oil from Iran.
The situation in Syria is too volatile to predict what might happen there. A lot of ominous threats are being made by the various parties involved, including one from the Turks to dump 3.6 million Syrian refugees into the EU unless it starts paying more for their upkeep.
The demonstrations in Iraq resumed last week. Hundreds of Iraqi protesters remained in Baghdad’s central Tahrir Square on Sunday, defying a bloody crackdown that killed scores over the weekend. At least 67 Iraqis were killed, and hundreds wounded on Friday and Saturday, as demonstrators clashed with security forces and militia groups in a second wave of protests against Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi’s government this month, bringing the total death toll in October to 224.
The unrest has broken nearly two years of relative stability in Iraq, which from 2003 to 2017 endured a foreign occupation, civil war, and an Islamic State insurgency. It poses the biggest challenge to Abdul Mahdi since he took office just a year ago. Despite promising reforms and ordering a broad cabinet reshuffle, he has so far struggled to address the protesters’ discontent. Political alliances backing his fragile coalition government are beginning to fracture, making his continued leadership increasingly precarious.
The protesters’ anger has been directed increasingly at political parties with ties to Iran and their militias. The militias are now part of the Iraqi security forces, but their origins, and sometimes their training, involve Iran. The offices of some of those political parties and militias were vandalized or burned in the Shiite-dominated south of Iraq, prompting the government on Saturday to impose tough new restrictions on movements there. Protesters are demanding more jobs, better public services, and an end to corruption.
In Tahrir Square, many protesters described the security forces firing at them as Iranian or from the Iranian political parties. “Iran Get Out, Get Out,” demonstrators chanted. Protesters set fire to offices belonging to a Shi’ite political party and a Shi’ite militia group in Iraq’s southern Muthanna province on Friday, police sources said. The offices of the Hikma movement and Asaib Ahl al-Haq were set ablaze by protesters in central Samawa city.
So far, the demonstrations do not seem to have much impact on Iraq’s oil exports. However, the evolving situations in Iraq, Syria, and a revived ISIS caliphate could change that.
Lebanon has been swept with protests against a political class accused of corruption, mismanagement of state finances, and pushing the country toward an economic collapse unseen since the 1975-90 civil war. Banks, schools, and many businesses have shut their doors. The protests have continued to grip Lebanon despite the government announcing an emergency reform package this week that failed to defuse anger. It has also yet to reassure foreign donors to unlock the billions in badly needed aid they have pledged.
Protesters trickled back on to the streets across Lebanon on Saturday, despite army efforts to unblock roads, with no end in sight to a crisis that has crippled the country for ten days. A military statement said army and security commanders met to plan ways to re-open main arteries to get traffic flowing again while “safeguarding the safety of protesters.” People have closed routes with barriers and sit-ins as part of a wave of unprecedented protests demanding the government resign.
Lebanon has one of the world’s highest levels of government debt as a share of economic output. The size and geographic reach of the protests have been extraordinary in a country where political movements have long been divided along sectarian lines and struggled to draw nationwide appeal.
3. Climate change
Climate change is reshaping the evolution and intensity of El Niño events in a way that favors the occurrence of more “super” El Niños. According to a new study, there has been a westward shift by up to thousands of miles in where in the Pacific Ocean El Niño is originating. The new study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, uses statistical methods as well as eight different computer models to uncover previously unseen trends in El Niño occurrences to date. The study finds the key may lie in the increasingly mild ocean waters of the western tropical Pacific Ocean — an area known as the West Pacific Warm Pool. The westward move is significant since it means El Niño is now forming and peaking in a region of the Pacific Ocean that is naturally warmer. This shift can increase the chances of a moderate to strong event.
All 11 El Niños that have taken place since 1978 formed in the Central or Western Pacific Ocean, according to the study, including three super El Niños that helped push global temperatures to record levels and wreaked havoc with weather patterns worldwide. Super El Niños, like the ones that occurred in 1982, 1998, and 2015-2016, can vault global temperatures to new heights, killing coral reefs worldwide and flooding parts of Africa and Asia while starving other parts of the globe of moisture. In short, they can lead to lasting extreme weather events affecting hundreds of millions and costing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.
One difference between the western Pacific El Niños and eastern Pacific events is that the western-based events can begin to affect global weather patterns during the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, rather than reserving the most significant impacts for the winter months. These earlier events can lead to long-lasting drought and heatwaves in the Western US, for example.
For some time now, it has been clear that the effects of climate change are appearing faster than scientists anticipated. Now it turns out that there is another form of underestimation as bad or worse than the scientific one: the underestimating by economists of the costs. This failure by economists means that world leaders understand neither the magnitude of the risks to lives and livelihoods nor the urgency of action. How and why this has occurred is explained in a recent report by scientists and economists at the London School of Economics and Political Science, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Earth Institute at Columbia University.
One reason is apparent: Since climate scientists have been underestimating the rate of climate change and the severity of its effects, then economists will necessarily underestimate their costs. A set of assumptions and practices in economics has led economists both to underestimate the economic impact of many climate risks and to miss some of them entirely. That is a problem because, as the report notes, these “missing risks” could have “drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies.”
4. The global economy and trade wars
The collateral damage of the United States’ trade wars is being felt from the fjords of Iceland to the auto factories of Japan. Central bank governors and finance ministers traded grim tales of suffering economies at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank fall meetings in Washington last week. As the IMF’s gathering of 189 member-nations drew to a close, the unintended negative impacts of the trade wars were becoming evident, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. “Everybody loses.”
The United States, the world’s largest importer, started a bitter tariff war with China, the world’s largest exporter, 15 months ago. President Trump is also renegotiating and sometimes upending, trade relationships with many of Washington’s top trading partners. The fallout will slow global growth in 2019 to 3.0%, the slowest pace in a decade, the IMF estimated this week. This pain is not being shared equally. The US remains the least exposed of the world’s 20 largest economies to a decline in exports, in part because of its massive domestic consumer spending base.
The damage is being particularly felt in European countries which “rely on exports and are open to trade,” the European Union’s Economic and Financial Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said.
More than 40 percent of Germany’s GDP was derived from exports in 2018, the most of any major global economy. Uncertainty in the business community is widespread, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz told reporters.
On Friday, Japan’s Cabinet Office, which helps coordinate government policy, downgraded its assessment of factory output in October. The softness in production was mostly due to car exports to the United States turning weaker, after growing steadily until the spring, a government official said at a briefing. “The pick-up in global growth is being delayed,” Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said. “Japan’s economy is seeing exports weaken significantly. and that’s affecting factory output.”
The United States hasn’t been immune from the impact of the trade wars. American farmers have been particularly hurt by Chinese tariffs on US agricultural products, prompting the Trump administration to give billions in aid to the farm belt.
US companies are preparing for tensions with China to extend far beyond the status of the continuing trade discussions, an executive for the U.S.-China Business Council said Monday. “When we talk to companies, there’s a realization that no matter what happens with this trade deal, we’re going down a trajectory of a much more confrontational relationship with China that’s very unlikely to shift in the opposite direction in the future”. Businesses are making arrangements to diversify their supply-chain investments away from the China market and enacting other structural changes.
China has set its sights high – very high – in terms of economic development, aiming to become the leading superpower worldwide by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. China is already the second-largest economy in the world and growing all the time. But for China, this comes with challenges. “China faces a protracted and increasingly difficult struggle to secure energy and water supplies to feed its appetite for rapid growth. From having to sustain a population over four times that of America’s 330 million, China is already at a severe disadvantage against the US for the title of preeminent superpower.
It has only a portion of the US’s oil, gas, and water resources, and that gap in self-sufficiency is likely to widen further. In June the IEA reported that the country’s natural gas consumption is projected to grow at nearly double the rate of Beijing’s previous projections. While China is doing its best to boost its energy production, it may be too little too late. The country’s demand for fuel is insatiable and simply cannot be met without the massive imports that China has already become entirely dependent on and will continue to rely on as the economy grows.
China continued to import crude oil from the US, Iran. and Venezuela in September, but Asia’s biggest energy consumer kept shipments from the three producers minimal due to the tariff and sanctions barriers blocking easier access to those supplies, latest data from the General Administration of Customs showed last week.
US and Chinese officials are “close to finalizing” some parts of a trade agreement after high-level telephone discussions last week. The US Trade Representative’s office provided no details on the areas of progress. Washington and Beijing are working to agree on the text for a “Phase 1” trade agreement announced by US President Donald Trump on Oct. 11. Trump has said he hopes to sign the deal with China’s President Xi Jinping next month at a summit in Chile. Outside observers continue to note that the “Phase 1” agreement only contains minor issues that were agreed to months ago.
5. Renewables and new technologies
Renewable energy capacity is set to grow by 50 percent by 2024, according to a new report from the IEA. In 2019, renewable energy is set to grow by 12 percent, the fastest rate in four years, as solar and wind power are quickly becoming cheaper than coal in most of the world.
A decade ago, onshore wind led the way initially, aided by lower costs. But the cost of solar has plunged in recent years, and more policy support has helped it continue to gain ground. The IEA estimates that costs for solar PV will decline by another 15 to 25 percent for both utility-scale solar and distributed projects over the next few years. “Recent competitive auction results indicate that the levelized cost of generation for utility-scale solar PV plants will become comparable with or lower than that of new fossil fuel plants sooner than expected in a growing number of countries,” the agency said.
However, the IEA also says that offshore wind power can meet all of the world’s electricity demand and is set to be a “game-changer” for energy systems. The landmark EIA report is the first time that the agency has conducted such an in depth examination of offshore wind.
The agency is known for its conservative reputation, repeatedly over-predicting oil demand and under-predicting the pace of growth for renewable energy. Notably, even the IEA says that solar and wind outcompete fossil fuels on price alone. A September report from the Rocky Mountain Institute finds that renewable energy already beats out new natural gas-fired power plants on costs. But by the mid-2030s, it will be cheaper to build new solar and wind than it will be to run existing gas plants, let alone build new ones.
6.The Briefs (date of the article in the Peak Oil News is in parentheses)
Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, is issuing $2.5 billion worth of Islamic bonds, or Sukuk, on Tuesday, returning to the bond market to take advantage of the low borrowing costs in hopes of replenishing its government coffers as persistently low oil prices depress revenues. (10/23)
Iraq has throttled back its crude production since setting an all-time record in August, averaging 4.85 million b/d in September. The month-on-month reduction of about 120,000 b/d comes after their Oil Minister promised OPEC members that Iraq would move back toward compliance with a quota designed to buoy global crude prices. (10/24)
India, one of the drivers of oil demand growth in Asia and the world, has just seen its oil imports drop to three-year lows, and fuel processing rates plunge to a 15-year low, as slowing economic growth is taking its toll on demand. (10/26)
In China, state-owned Sinopec expects natural gas demand to increase by 82 percent to 510 Bcm in 2030, from 280 Bcm in 2018, driven by continued industrial upgrading and urbanization. Gas demand growth will come mainly from city gas, industrial usage, and gas-powered utilities. Demand is expected to exceed 300 Bcm in 2019, up by almost 10% year on year. (10/24)
China’s refining overcapacity is increasingly exported. Traders expect China’s growing product exports to underpin gasoline and gasoil trade flows in Asia, much like the emergence of refining hubs in Singapore and India did in the past. China’s current crude distillation unit capacity has equaled that of the US, the world’s largest, at 18.2 million b/d. (10/24)
In Nigeria, Russia is looking to strengthen ties with Africa’s largest oil producer with a focus on reforming that nation’s downstream and gas sector, the Russian energy ministry said late Wednesday. (10/25)
In Libya, the unstable security situation and the continued bickering between rival governments have kept international oil companies from resuming exploration activities in the civil war-torn North African oil producer. The latest sign that the deteriorating situation is dampening the investment climate in the oil and gas sector comes from two oil majors, BP and Eni, which have shelved plans to install rigs and start exploration in Libya. (10/25)
Venezuela and Chevron: The US government has given Chevron and four oil service providers permission to keep working in Venezuela for another three months, extending their exemption from oil sanctions that have hit the rest of the industry in the South American country to a full year. When Washington imposed an embargo on Venezuelan oil in January, it gave US companies operating there a six-month exemption. It extended that waiver for three months in July and has now done the same again. (10/22)
Venezuelan standoff: The US Treasury is blocking for 90 days creditors from seizing shares in Venezuela’s US subsidiary Citgo, temporarily shielding the prized Venezuelan asset in a win for Venezuela’s opposition and its leader Juan Guaidó. Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA must make a payment of US$913 million on a 2020 bond on Monday, October 28. Still, the bond is widely expected to go into default because the Venezuelan oil firm doesn’t have the money to make the payment. PDVSA, however, has used shares in its most prized foreign asset, Citgo, as collateral for the bond. The bonds are backed by 50.1 percent in the U.S.-based refiner, so should the bond default, bondholders may rush to claim shares of Citgo. (10/26)
Ecuador has restarted crude oil exports after massive protests caused the country’s oil industry to more or less grind to a halt. The protests were ignited by a set of austerity measures the Ecuadorean government wanted to implement as part of efforts to reduce its fiscal deficit. They were a condition for the Andean country to get a $2.4-billion loan from the International Monetary Fund. However, the measures included the removal of fuel subsidies that led to a 120-percent spike in prices at the pump. This sparked the anger of indigenous groups and farmers who led the protests that began on October 3. (10/22)
The US oil rig count declined by 17 last week to 696 while the gas rig count dropped by 4 to 133, according to Baker Hughes. The total rig count now stands at 830, or down 238 from this time last year. Oil rigs have seen a loss of 179 rigs year on year, with gas rigs down 60 since this time last year. (10/26)
Growing US crude oil production and exports have resulted in America selling oil to more destinations around the world (31) than the number of countries from which it imports crude oil (27), the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday. A decade ago, the United States was importing crude oil from as many as 37 foreign sources per month, and its exports were restricted almost exclusively to Canada. After the lifting of those restrictions at the end of 2015, US crude oil exports have been on the rise and reaching more destinations. (10/23)
$18 billion missteps: The US has forfeited some $18 billion tied to oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico since 2000 because of a decades-old law that gave energy companies a break on paying royalties when drilling in deep waters, federal investigators concluded Thursday. The foregone revenue will keep climbing, as energy companies continue to harvest oil and gas royalty-free from dozens of affected tracts in the Gulf, long after lawmakers realized sloppy legislative writing prevented the government from making the price breaks temporary. (10/25)
Abandoned well costs: Increasingly, US shale firms appear unable to pay back investors for the money borrowed to fuel the last decade of the fracking boom. In a similar vein, those companies also seem poised to stiff the public on cleanup costs for abandoned oil and gas wells once the producers have moved on. (10/24)
Coal’s water usage: There is a massive new benefit to ditching coal plants: Doing so will free up billions of gallons of water. If all coal-fired power plants in the US were converted to natural gas, the annual water savings could reach 12,250 billion gallons or 2.6 times as much as the entire US industrial water use. Arguably, ditching coal could make up for all the water that fracking is sucking down in the shale patch, so it could take the pressure off that controversial method of extracting oil. (10/24)
EV subsidy proposal: Senator Chuck Schumer, the top Senate Democrat, late on Thursday proposed a $454 billion plan over 10 years to help shift the US away from gasoline-powered vehicles by offering cash vouchers to help Americans buy cleaner vehicles. Schumer said his plan, which would provide rebates of $3,000 or more to individual buyers, would help transition 25 percent of the US fleet, or 63 million vehicles, away from traditional internal combustion engine vehicles within 10 years. The plan would be key to reducing the impact of climate change, Schumer said, noting that the transportation sector accounts for nearly one-third of US carbon output. (10/25)
Stranded EVs? California might be blazing a trail with getting a large number of electric vehicles on the road, but the only trail California is currently blazing is the wildfire/PG&E fiasco that could once again plunge millions of Californians into the dark in the next wave of blackouts, expected today, the likes of which could sour investor confidence in purchasing a vehicle that relies on sketchy power sources. (10/24)
An electric SUV:Ford Motor Company will reveal on November 18 an all-electric SUV inspired by its iconic Mustang as legacy carmakers try to grab shares of the growing electric vehicle market. Ford released the first design sketch of the all-electric SUV on Thursday and said that the global reveal will be live streamed from Los Angeles on November 18. The new vehicle, which Ford described as “game-changing”, has a targeted driving range of up to 600 kilometers, or more than 370 miles. (10/26)
Tesla has begun selling Model 3 cars made in China, complete with its Autopilot system. The price tag for the vehicle will be a little over $50,300. This makes the China-made Model 3 the cheapest Tesla car on sale in China after the company discontinued online sales of a cheaper version that did not have the Autopilot. At the presentation of its third-quarter financial results, Tesla said its gigafactory in China had started operations ahead of schedule and was already making whole cars. (10/26)
Ballooning deficit: The US government’s budget deficit ballooned to nearly $1 trillion in 2019, the Treasury Department announced Friday, as the United States’ fiscal imbalance widened for a fourth consecutive year despite a sustained run of economic growth. The deficit grew $205 billion, or 26 percent, in the past year. The country’s worsening fiscal picture runs in sharp contrast to President Trump’s campaign promise to eliminate the federal debt within eight years. (10/26)
Builders’ backdoor deal: A secret agreement has allowed the nation’s homebuilders to make it much easier to block changes to building codes that would require new houses to better address climate change, according to documents reviewed by The New York Times. The written arrangement, in place for years and not previously disclosed, guarantees industry representatives four of the 11 voting seats on two powerful committees that approve building codes that are widely adopted nationwide. (10/26)
Swiss voters have shifted the country’s political direction decisively leftward in elections that delivered a triumph for two environmentally focused parties and reversed decades of gains for the country’s hard right. The green bloc will hold at least 44 of 246 seats, making it the second-largest in the parliament. (10/23)
A hole in the ozone layer located near the Earth’s South Pole is the smallest it has been since first being discovered in the 1980s, NASA said. While the depletion of the ozone has decreased over the years, the hole’s smaller size this year is related to abnormal weather and wind patterns. (10/24)
An extremely unusual “medicane” is set to lash parts of Egypt and Israel, bringing the potential for tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall and perhaps even coastal flooding in spots. The hybrid low-pressure system, evocative of tropical cyclones yet bearing some mid-latitude characteristics, is “incredibly rare” that far east in the Mediterranean. (10/26)
Nuclear fusion researchers have always faced criticism due to the unfulfilled promise of a nuclear fusion reactor. However, in recent years, the fusion community has seen a few positive results. The ITER fusion reactor, which is near completion at Cadarache, France will finally turn on in 2025 following years of delays and cost hikes, though an actual power plant is unlikely to be built before 2040 at the earliest. With the fusion reactor race gaining momentum, the UK Government has announced £220m for the design of the Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production (STEP) fusion power station. The spherical tokamak design, pioneered by the UK and the US, would allow for much more compact and cheaper power plants. However, more research is required to be performed on the upgraded Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak in the UK and the National Spherical Torus Experiment in the US. The fusion power plant is expected to be completed by 2024. (10/26)
Peak Oil Review 21 October 2019
By Tom Whipple, Steve Andrews, originally published by Peak-Oil.org
October 21, 2019
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-10-21/peak-oil-review-21-october-2019/
Peak Oil Review: 15 October 2019
By Tom Whipple, Steve Andrews, originally published by Peak-Oil.org
October 15, 2019
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-11-25/peak-oil-review-25-november-2019/
The title of this board, Peak Oil - Epochal Event of Our Lives, purposely includes the word epochal, meaning without parallel.
Why will Peak Oil be without parallel?
Look at past events in the Middle East, which interrupted the supply of oil throughout the world and especially in the United States. These disruptions were geopolitical events and were ultimately resolved with diplomacy.
Peak Oil, on the other hand, will be a geological event, something that mankind has never faced before and certainly cannot control. It will inevitably occur when world oil production has reached its maximum capacity, as oil is a finite resource.
Illustrated below is Hubbert's Curve, which shows the growth, peak, and decline of worldwide, regional, and individual wells. This sequence continues to occur as world population dramatically increases and as Asia, in particular, accelerates its industrialization and its citizenry expands car ownership.
HUBBERT CURVE
Regional Vs Individual Wells
Peak Oil will adversely affect many aspects of our lives. For example, over the last 100 years, gas powered engines have contributed to the discovery and expansion of the automobile and airplane industries. Recently the population of the United States reached 300 million and vehicles now total 225 million. Future population growth, with a corresponding increase in vehicles, will further deplete oil supplies.
Agriculture has changed from numerous labor and animal-intensive family farms to a machine-intensive industry primarily controlled by corporations. Further, much of the increased productivity of farm soil emanates from petroleum-based fertilizers.
Transportation and agriculture are just two segments of society that must adjust to prospective oil declines. The critical question is how will our entire society adjust to a worldwide oil scarcity.
M. King Hubbert, a Shell geologist, predicted in 1956 that oil production in the United States would peak between 1965 to 1970. In hindsight, it did peak in 1970.
Mr. Hubbert's warning was given, yet it has been largely ignored. Oil discoveries and plentiful oil reserves in Alaska and the North Sea made many people complacent. In addition, new technologies were developed, so that oil was sucked up from the earth as if by giant straws. Although oil was abundant in the 1980's and 1990's, reserves in this century are in demonstrable decline.
China, in particular, recognizes the potential shortage of oil. It canvasses the world making oil deals to secure its energy future. It is also currently building 30 nuclear reactors and 7 hydroelectric dams to supplement its energy needs.
Sadly, the United States lingers behind. Its attitude seems to be that oil will always be abundant, probably because it has been in the past. Even with the dramatic crude oil price increases of the past three years, there still is a reluctance to confront this potential problem.
PURPOSE OF THIS BOARD
One purpose of this board is to provide I-Hub members with a repository of Peak Oil articles. Hopefully these will stimulate interest in the topic and I invite readers to post their thoughts.
Another important purpose of this board is to help people in preparing for or coping with the Peak Oil event. To this end, various links by category have been supplied below.
Good luck!
sumisu
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TABLE OF CONTENTS :
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GETTING READY FOR PEAK OIL & SUSTAINABLE LIVING
A companion #board-9881 titled "SUSTAINABLE LIVING FOR CHALLENGING TIMES" was spun off from this board to provide an archive of postings and sources of information which will aid individuals and communities to adopt and survive in a world of declining energy resources.
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PEAK OIL READING LIST FROM JIM PUPLAVA
http://www.financialsense.com/resources/peakoil.html
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PEAK OIL SITES, BLOGS, & ORGANIZATIONS
Peak Oil Clock http://sydneypeakoil.com/peak_oil_clock/
ASPO - USA http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_frontpage&Itemid=35
ASPO - INTERNATIONALhttp://www.peakoil.net
Beyond Oil, The View from Hubbert's Peak by Kenneth S. Deffeyes http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/index.html
Dry Dipstick http://www.drydipstick.com
Energy Balance http://tinyurl.com/42awvh
Energy Bulletin http://www.energybulletin.net/
Energy Bulletin: Peak Oil Primer and Links http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php
Energy Outlook http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/
Global Public Media - Public Service Broadcasting For A Post Carbon World http://globalpublicmedia.com/
Life After the Oil Crash http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
National Petroleum Council http://www.npc.org
NEI Nuclear Notes http://neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com/
Peak Oil Design http://peakoildesign.com/
Peak Oil News & Message Boards http://www.peakoil.com/
PLENTY http://www.plentymag.com/
Post Carbon Institute http://www.postcarbon.org/
Simmons & Company International http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
The Coming Global Oil Crisis http://www.oilcrisis.com
The Oil Drum http://www.theoildrum.com/
The View From The Peak http://www.theviewfromthepeak.net
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NARRATIVE LINKS
Peak Oil FAQ #msg-33046927
Peak Oil Report by Peak Oil Associates International #msg-32147901
Evolutionary psychology and peak oil #msg-30634038
Roscoe Bartlett Discusses His Special Order Speeches #msg-29893771
OIL SHOCK AND ENERGY TRANSITION by Andrew McKillop, May 7, 2008 #msg-29196735
Energy Bull Market Fundamentals Remain Strong, Chris Puplava, 2008 http://tinyurl.com/5nze3h
The Truth About Oil by Vasko Kohlmayer, 05 08 08 http://tinyurl.com/3guotj
The Gospel According to Matthew, by Mimi Swartz, 02/01/08 #msg-26286577
Another Nail in the Coffin of the Case Against Peak Oil, Matt Simmons, Nov 2007
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Another%20Nail%20in%20the%20Coffin.pdf
Megaprojects update: Just how close to Peak Oil are we? 10/18/07 Chris Skrebowski: Trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre http://tinyurl.com/33rl3q
Crisis, what energy crisis? Euan Mearns, The Oil Drum: Europe. 07/03/07 Over 50 links to Oil Drum articles from the past year are provided which combined provide a comprehensive overview of the issues surrounding peak oil and energy decline. http://www.energybulletin.net/31608.html
On the Precipice: Energy Security & Economic Stability on the Edge - by Daniel Davis 07/17/07 http://www.aspo-usa.com/assets/documents/Danny_Davis_On_the_Precipice.pdf
Evolutionary psychology and peak oil: A Malthusian inspired "heads up" for humanity. by Dr. Michael E. Mills http://www.drmillslmu.com/peakoil.htm
Peak oil: Facts converge with theory http://tinyurl.com/2gtud4
11 incontrovertible truths of oil production & peak oil arguments by PeakEngineer, 05/23/07 #msg-19902674
Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room, © Copyright 2007, Paul Chefurka http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html
CRUDE OIL Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production, GAO Report, 03/29/07 http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf
DIE OFF - a population crash resource page http://www.dieoff.com/index.html
Portland, Oregon City Council unanimously creates a peak oil task force - 05/10/06 http://www.portlandpeakoil.org/
Testimony before the Australian Senate by Dr. Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior expert employed by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), 07/11/06 http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/commttee/S9515.pdf
The Hirsch Report - February 2005 #msg-10310387
The Financial Sense Energy Resource Page http://www.financialsense.com/energy/main.htm
Financial Sense Big Picture Archive http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/2006.html
OIL: A TRAVELOGUE OF ADDICTION by Chicago Tribune, 07/29/06 (Suggested viewing: Open link and click on Watch documentary, left-hand column). http://tinyurl.com/h78ve
Exploring emotional reactions to peak oil by Kathy McMahon http://www.energybulletin.net/19718.html
Denial Of Energy Crisis Is A Conditioned Response, By Dave Wheelock #msg-25561271
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Hubbert peak theory From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
A Tribute To M. King Hubbert http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/
Outlook for Fuel Reserves http://www.mkinghubbert.com/files/hubbert_1974.pdf
Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels by M. King Hubbert, 1956 Published on 8 Mar 2006 by Energy Bulletin. Archived on 8 Mar 2006. http://www.energybulletin.net/13630.html
Shell Execs Briefed on Peak Oil in 1956
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH AS A TRANSIENT PHENOMENON IN HUMAN HISTORY
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Hubbert/wwf1976/
Are we at the peak of oil production? #msg-39230370#msg-29389791
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ROBERT L. HIRSCH
The Hirsch Report - February 2005 #msg-10310387
Robert L. Hirsch from Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_L._Hirsch
Robert Hirsch - Peak Oil Video - #msg-33832912
FSN: Energy Roundtable: Jim Puplava, Matthew Simmons, Robert L. Hirsch, & Jeffrey G. Rubin Discussion - 02/02/08 http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/roundtable/2008/0202.html
Dr. Robert Hirsch: "We Are Staring Directly Into An Energy Storm in The Next 2-3 Years"
#msg-69993495
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Simmons & Company web site
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
Book Review: Twilight in the Desert - The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons
Read more: http://blogcritics.org/books/article/book-review-twilight-in-the-desert/#ixzz0nXMuOsbg
Peak Oil Solution: The Simmons Plan
http://blogs.forbes.com/energysource/2010/02/10/peak-oil-solution-the-simmons-plan/
Presentation at 2006 Boston World Oil Conference, 10/26/2006
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-429585738009344102#
President Carter's Address to the Nation On Energy Policy (April 18, 1977) Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Y6pPF_lzsU
Transcript: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/carter/filmmore/ps_energy.html
Energy Policy and Conservation Executive Order 12003, July 20th, 1977
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=7842
Carter's Brave Vision on Energy by David Morris, Monday, October 10, 2005 by the Minneapolis Star Tribune
http://www.commondreams.org/views05/1010-27.htm
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Congressman Bartlett is leading efforts to change U.S. energy policy to address the challenges of peak oil. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970 and is in permanent decline. World oil production will also peak - perhaps disastrously soon. http://bartlett.house.gov
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett video on Peak Oil in 7 parts. . .
The House of Representatives formed a Peak Oil caucus in 2005 with 8 members: #msg-30864250
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NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC ON PEAK OIL
"Tapped Out" by Paul Roberts, August 2008 http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/06/world-oil/roberts-text
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AUDIOS & VIDEOSPeak Oil - Chris Martenson http://www.chrismartenson.com/peak_oil
Twilight In the Desert http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfEO3PCEeis
Peak Oil - Robert Hirsch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSbfvZiJ9g0
Peak Oil - Crude Impact #msg-30619202
CNN Special Investigation - OUT OF GAS #msg-30188572
91 86 90 - Peak Oil Number-Crunching http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oC-koGwRu_A
Oil and the 'New International Energy Order' - Michael Klare, 04 14 08 http://tinyurl.com/59947u
"A conversation with John Hofmeister" - Charlie Rose, 03 25 08 http://tinyurl.com/23o8py
Video: A High-Risk Barrel, September 28, 2007 http://novakeo.com/?p=1054&jal_no_js=true&poll_id=10
Matt Savinar - Coast to Coast, 10/07 http://klrietmann.bingodisk.com/bingo/public/Savinarc2c111.mp3
A Crude Awakening http://tinyurl.com/yp88uu
Matthew Simmons on Peak Oil, ASPO Conference at Boston University 10 27 06 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-429585738009344102&q=peak+oil'
Dr. Kenneth Deffeyes on Peak Oil, 2005 Energy Conference - http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2992397199507996758&hl=en
Peak Oil, Richard Heinberg, 09/11/06 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2141508903056009420
Peak Oil: Fireside Chat with Julian Darley - http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&q=julian%20darley%2C%20boston%20world%20oil%20conference&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wv#q=julian+darley&hl=en&emb=0
Peak Oil & The Party's Over http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Xl3J4Kpy88&feature=PlayList&p=F39AC0DCDA7ADEC2&index=0&playnext=1
Peak Oil: Gas Prices, Supply Depletion & Energy Crisis: From NewCulture.org, 07 27 06 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMQd5nGEkr4&mode=related&search
The Long Emergency: Surviving Catastophies of the 21st Century, 10 30 05 http://tinyurl.com/2g6p35
Real Oil Crisis - 11 24 05 (Video Presentation) http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1515141.htm
The Geopolitical Consequences of Peak Oil: Michael Klare, 10 27 06 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3121561902567229690&hl=en
The End of Suburbia http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug&feature=related
World Made By Hand (Video Promo) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbEe8v4YpgA
T. Boone Pickens on CNBC [discusses alternative energies] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylI4iQ-5iXg
Dr. Al Husseini, retired head of exploration and production for Saudi Aramco, interview with CNBC on 03/27/08: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=697807590&play=1
RICHARD HEINBERG on OUR POST-CARBON FUTURE http://tinyurl.com/636juw
Megan Quinn Bachman - Peak Oil, Community & The Future in four parts:
Calm Before the Storm, Richard Heinberg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajqgOCxGEAo
Running on Empty: Life Without Cheap Oil http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqg3P3wOV60
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A 10% Reduction in America's Oil Use in Ten to Twelve Years An Overlooked, Practical, and Affordable Approach Using Mature Existing Technology by Alan S. Drake, May 2006 • Rev. October 2006 http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2006-05a.htm
Electrification of transportation as a response to peaking of world oil production by Alan S. Drake 12/19/05 in Light Rail Now http://www.energybulletin.net/14492.html
Public Transport Industry Issues http://www.lightrailnow.org/industry_issues.htm#electrification
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COMMUNITY SOLUTIONS & NEW URBANISM
The Community Solution http://www.communitysolution.org/
WORLD CHANGING http://www.worldchanging.com/about/
How to Wean a Town Off Fossil Fuels http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/005135.html
A Community Solution to Peak Oil: An interview with Megan Quinn http://www.energybulletin.net/5721
Sustain Lane | The Healthy, Sustainable Living Community Resource http://www.sustainlane.com/
Culture Change http://culturechange.org/cms/index.php
Communities, Refuges, and Refuge-Communities by Zachary Nowak http://www.energybulletin.net/21172.html
Karavans - Moving Toward a New World of Self-Sufficiency, Sustainability, and Genuine Community http://www.karavans.com/peakoil.html
New Urbanism http://www.newurbanism.org/
The New Urbanisn http://www.newurbannews.com/AboutNewUrbanism.html
Online NewsHour - New Urbanism http://www.pbs.org/newshour/newurbanism/
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OTHER NATIONS - STATUS FOR PEAK OIL
Closing the 'Collapse Gap': The USSR was better prepared for peak oil than the US - by Dmitry Orlov, 12/04/06
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/23259
The power of community: How Cuba survived peak oil - by Megan Quinn, 02/25/06 http://www.energybulletin.net/13171.html
"Flush With Energy" By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN August 10, 2008 #msg-31394853
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FSN: Lutz Kleveman, 01/24/04 - "The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Kleveman.html
FSN: Michael T. Klare, 01/15/05 - "Blood and Oil" http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Klare.html
FSN: Michael T. Klare, 6/21/08. "Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy" http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2008/Klare.html
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CANTARELL OIL FIELD & DEPLETION
Cantarell Field by Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field
Cantarell, The Second Largest Oil Field Is Dying, by G.R. Morton, 08 14 04
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/1651
Cantarell Decline Perspective, Jim KIngsdale's "Energy Investment STRATEGIES" 07 08 08
http://www.energyinvestmentstrategies.com/2008/07/08/cantarell-decline-perspective/
A Storm Called Cantarell by Sean Brodrick, "Money and Markets' 09 03 08
#msg-31902352
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Export Land Medel by Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model
What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices By: Doug Casey, Casey Research LLC, 06 04 08 http://www.321energy.com/editorials/casey/casey060508.html
An Update on Mexico Export Land Model by GraphOilogy 01 22 08
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2008/01/update-on-mexico-export-land-model.html
Oil Outlook: "Export Land Model" by Jeff Rubin on CNBC, October 2007
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ed9jsKAOHU
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CHARTS AND ILLUSTRATIONS OF INTEREST
A significant example of collapsing oil production is Cantarell, recently the largest oil field in the Western Hemisphere. From over 2 million barrels per day in 2004-2005, Cantarell is now producing at around 700,000 barrels per day. [credit chart to energycrisis.com]
The amount of oil you can produce can only ever equal the amount of recoverable oil you discover. The area under both curves must eventually be equal. [ http://futureproofkilkenny.org/?page_id=110 ]
[source: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp
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